Tour de France 2023 build up

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  • r0bh
    r0bh Posts: 2,437
    He would have been able turbo on the TT bike with his weight on his forearms if he had problems with a standard road position
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,152
    phreak said:

    phreak said:

    It was interesting reading the comments from Remco recently about why he's not entering the Tour. It really sounds like he's nowhere near the level of Pog and JV.

    Honestly he’d have obliterated the Giro if he hadn’t caught covid.

    He was in bed for 10 days with that covid. And he still won the TT with it.
    He was also dropped by Roglic, Thomas and TGH on the first real hilly stage. Maybe he would have won it, but to say he's on a par with JV and Pog is wholly unproven as he's actively avoided racing either of them in a mountainous stage race, and is actively avoiding them in the Tour this year. I wonder what he's scared of if he's on their level?
    Was that the stage one day before he dropped out with covid? Not going to read a massive amount into that.

    I don't see what he's going to do this season that would be better than showing up to the TDF if he's in any sort of shape. I also don't see that his team has a better climbing option for winning stages if he doesn't want to put himself in the GC reckoning.
  • andyp
    andyp Posts: 10,549
    The Belgian media won't accept him turning up and just going for stage wins. Leferve understands that, as does Evenepoel.

    The pressure from them when he does make his Tour debut is going to be off the chart, I think allowing him to mature, both as a rider and a person, before he experiences that is wise.
  • andyp
    andyp Posts: 10,549
    Also, as @rick_chasey rightly says, you can't just turn up at a GT and hope to perform these days. His preparation for the Giro was a six month plan. You can't then just reset and go for the biggest race on the calendar with four weeks prep.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,152
    andyp said:

    Also, as @rick_chasey rightly says, you can't just turn up at a GT and hope to perform these days. His preparation for the Giro was a six month plan. You can't then just reset and go for the biggest race on the calendar with four weeks prep.

    Maybe not if you are hoping to perform every day. If he would rather write off the whole season (apart from a couple of one day races) rather than upset the Belgian media, that's fair enough.

    If he did race for GC with his Giro prep, where do you think he could realistically finish?
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,463

    phreak said:

    phreak said:

    It was interesting reading the comments from Remco recently about why he's not entering the Tour. It really sounds like he's nowhere near the level of Pog and JV.

    Honestly he’d have obliterated the Giro if he hadn’t caught covid.

    He was in bed for 10 days with that covid. And he still won the TT with it.
    He was also dropped by Roglic, Thomas and TGH on the first real hilly stage. Maybe he would have won it, but to say he's on a par with JV and Pog is wholly unproven as he's actively avoided racing either of them in a mountainous stage race, and is actively avoiding them in the Tour this year. I wonder what he's scared of if he's on their level?
    Was that the stage one day before he dropped out with covid? Not going to read a massive amount into that.

    I don't see what he's going to do this season that would be better than showing up to the TDF if he's in any sort of shape. I also don't see that his team has a better climbing option for winning stages if he doesn't want to put himself in the GC reckoning.
    Yet he managed to win the TT the following day. I’m not convinced he was going to keep with the best climbers in the bigger mountains but as I said at the time, whoever won this year will get the ‘he only won because Remco had to drop out’ treatment.
  • r0bh
    r0bh Posts: 2,437
    andyp said:

    The pressure from them when he does make his Tour debut is going to be off the chart, I think allowing him to mature, both as a rider and a person, before he experiences that is wise.

    But to a degree they've made this pressure for themselves by how they have chosen his races
  • DeVlaeminck
    DeVlaeminck Posts: 9,104
    The fact it was COVID rather than say a 24 hour bug must have played a part in not aiming Evenepoel at the Tour. There's that element of the unknown about how long it'll drag on and whether are you actually 100% recovered. Also agree though I doubt they fancy him against JV and Pog even at 100%
    [Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
  • phreak
    phreak Posts: 2,953
    r0bh said:

    andyp said:

    The pressure from them when he does make his Tour debut is going to be off the chart, I think allowing him to mature, both as a rider and a person, before he experiences that is wise.

    But to a degree they've made this pressure for themselves by how they have chosen his races
    As I've said before, in his entire career he's raced in the same stage race as Pog or JV I think once. I'm just not sure why a man with such a supposedly high opinion of himself would do that. In the absence of any real evidence, it's allowed this narrative to form that he's on their level, when for all we know he could be a deluxe Gilberto Simoni.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,152
    Pross said:

    phreak said:

    phreak said:

    It was interesting reading the comments from Remco recently about why he's not entering the Tour. It really sounds like he's nowhere near the level of Pog and JV.

    Honestly he’d have obliterated the Giro if he hadn’t caught covid.

    He was in bed for 10 days with that covid. And he still won the TT with it.
    He was also dropped by Roglic, Thomas and TGH on the first real hilly stage. Maybe he would have won it, but to say he's on a par with JV and Pog is wholly unproven as he's actively avoided racing either of them in a mountainous stage race, and is actively avoiding them in the Tour this year. I wonder what he's scared of if he's on their level?
    Was that the stage one day before he dropped out with covid? Not going to read a massive amount into that.

    I don't see what he's going to do this season that would be better than showing up to the TDF if he's in any sort of shape. I also don't see that his team has a better climbing option for winning stages if he doesn't want to put himself in the GC reckoning.
    Yet he managed to win the TT the following day. I’m not convinced he was going to keep with the best climbers in the bigger mountains but as I said at the time, whoever won this year will get the ‘he only won because Remco had to drop out’ treatment.
    Not at all - it's part of winning that you have to actually make it through the race and not get sick. It's not like it was an asymptomatic positive test.

    No idea if he would have won or not - he wasn't exactly head and shoulders above Roglic in the prep races.

    But I'm not even talking about that, I'm asking whether it would be better for him to race the TDF or just write off the season because he didn't finish the Giro. (As he is racing again, I assume there's no lingering issues.)
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    edited June 2023
    phreak said:

    r0bh said:

    andyp said:

    The pressure from them when he does make his Tour debut is going to be off the chart, I think allowing him to mature, both as a rider and a person, before he experiences that is wise.

    But to a degree they've made this pressure for themselves by how they have chosen his races
    As I've said before, in his entire career he's raced in the same stage race as Pog or JV I think once. I'm just not sure why a man with such a supposedly high opinion of himself would do that. In the absence of any real evidence, it's allowed this narrative to form that he's on their level, when for all we know he could be a deluxe Gilberto Simoni.
    He’s a 23 year old who had already won the Vuelta, the worlds and two LBLs.

    Hinault didn’t even race a grand tour till he was 24.

    That’s already better than Simoni, by a long way.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661

    Pross said:

    phreak said:

    phreak said:

    It was interesting reading the comments from Remco recently about why he's not entering the Tour. It really sounds like he's nowhere near the level of Pog and JV.

    Honestly he’d have obliterated the Giro if he hadn’t caught covid.

    He was in bed for 10 days with that covid. And he still won the TT with it.
    He was also dropped by Roglic, Thomas and TGH on the first real hilly stage. Maybe he would have won it, but to say he's on a par with JV and Pog is wholly unproven as he's actively avoided racing either of them in a mountainous stage race, and is actively avoiding them in the Tour this year. I wonder what he's scared of if he's on their level?
    Was that the stage one day before he dropped out with covid? Not going to read a massive amount into that.

    I don't see what he's going to do this season that would be better than showing up to the TDF if he's in any sort of shape. I also don't see that his team has a better climbing option for winning stages if he doesn't want to put himself in the GC reckoning.
    Yet he managed to win the TT the following day. I’m not convinced he was going to keep with the best climbers in the bigger mountains but as I said at the time, whoever won this year will get the ‘he only won because Remco had to drop out’ treatment.
    Not at all - it's part of winning that you have to actually make it through the race and not get sick. It's not like it was an asymptomatic positive test.

    No idea if he would have won or not - he wasn't exactly head and shoulders above Roglic in the prep races.

    But I'm not even talking about that, I'm asking whether it would be better for him to race the TDF or just write off the season because he didn't finish the Giro. (As he is racing again, I assume there's no lingering issues.)
    Surely with covid **in the giro**, where he won two stages, it makes sense to go after the Vuelta and the worlds again? To defend both titles?

    Lad has won LBL and two stages in the Giro. His season is already a total success.

    You’re like the Belgians - if he doesn’t hit the Pog mark day one you’ll just write him off.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,152
    edited June 2023

    Pross said:

    phreak said:

    phreak said:

    It was interesting reading the comments from Remco recently about why he's not entering the Tour. It really sounds like he's nowhere near the level of Pog and JV.

    Honestly he’d have obliterated the Giro if he hadn’t caught covid.

    He was in bed for 10 days with that covid. And he still won the TT with it.
    He was also dropped by Roglic, Thomas and TGH on the first real hilly stage. Maybe he would have won it, but to say he's on a par with JV and Pog is wholly unproven as he's actively avoided racing either of them in a mountainous stage race, and is actively avoiding them in the Tour this year. I wonder what he's scared of if he's on their level?
    Was that the stage one day before he dropped out with covid? Not going to read a massive amount into that.

    I don't see what he's going to do this season that would be better than showing up to the TDF if he's in any sort of shape. I also don't see that his team has a better climbing option for winning stages if he doesn't want to put himself in the GC reckoning.
    Yet he managed to win the TT the following day. I’m not convinced he was going to keep with the best climbers in the bigger mountains but as I said at the time, whoever won this year will get the ‘he only won because Remco had to drop out’ treatment.
    Not at all - it's part of winning that you have to actually make it through the race and not get sick. It's not like it was an asymptomatic positive test.

    No idea if he would have won or not - he wasn't exactly head and shoulders above Roglic in the prep races.

    But I'm not even talking about that, I'm asking whether it would be better for him to race the TDF or just write off the season because he didn't finish the Giro. (As he is racing again, I assume there's no lingering issues.)
    Surely with covid **in the giro**, where he won two stages, it makes sense to go after the Vuelta and the worlds again? To defend both titles?

    Lad has won LBL and two stages in the Giro. His season is already a total success.

    You’re like the Belgians - if he doesn’t hit the Pog mark day one you’ll just write him off.
    Total success is a big call. It's not a disaster by any means, but he was aiming for GC in one of the two actual big grand tours this year.
  • r0bh said:

    Time off the road, yes. Time off the bike, not so much. Look at Hayman winning P-R off the back of a few weeks on Zwift, for example

    IIRC, Wiggo was in good form for the 2011 Vuelta despite breaking his collarbone in the Tour. Grainy images of him turboing in a shed for heat acclimation spring to mind.
  • RichN95. said:

    I saw this tweet earlier. Obviously a Eurosport employee trying to raise expectations. But it's clearly wrong.



    Experience tells us that no race follows form more than the Tour GC. Since I started watching in 1986, you can count the times that a clear, strong favourite hasn't won on the fingers of one hand - 1989 (bad time keeping), 1996 (EPO madness), 1998 (EPO madness), 2014 (crash) and 2022 (team weakness)

    Vingegaard is odds on with most bookies at the moment.
    Other contenders for years where warm favourite didn't win:
    - 1987: Stephen Roche
    - 1999: He who shall not be named
    - 2008: Sastre, though maybe no real favourite that year
    - 2018: Thomas
  • r0bh
    r0bh Posts: 2,437

    RichN95. said:

    I saw this tweet earlier. Obviously a Eurosport employee trying to raise expectations. But it's clearly wrong.



    Experience tells us that no race follows form more than the Tour GC. Since I started watching in 1986, you can count the times that a clear, strong favourite hasn't won on the fingers of one hand - 1989 (bad time keeping), 1996 (EPO madness), 1998 (EPO madness), 2014 (crash) and 2022 (team weakness)

    Vingegaard is odds on with most bookies at the moment.
    Other contenders for years where warm favourite didn't win:
    - 1987: Stephen Roche
    - 1999: He who shall not be named
    - 2008: Sastre, though maybe no real favourite that year
    - 2018: Thomas
    - 2020: Pogacar
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661

    Pross said:

    phreak said:

    phreak said:

    It was interesting reading the comments from Remco recently about why he's not entering the Tour. It really sounds like he's nowhere near the level of Pog and JV.

    Honestly he’d have obliterated the Giro if he hadn’t caught covid.

    He was in bed for 10 days with that covid. And he still won the TT with it.
    He was also dropped by Roglic, Thomas and TGH on the first real hilly stage. Maybe he would have won it, but to say he's on a par with JV and Pog is wholly unproven as he's actively avoided racing either of them in a mountainous stage race, and is actively avoiding them in the Tour this year. I wonder what he's scared of if he's on their level?
    Was that the stage one day before he dropped out with covid? Not going to read a massive amount into that.

    I don't see what he's going to do this season that would be better than showing up to the TDF if he's in any sort of shape. I also don't see that his team has a better climbing option for winning stages if he doesn't want to put himself in the GC reckoning.
    Yet he managed to win the TT the following day. I’m not convinced he was going to keep with the best climbers in the bigger mountains but as I said at the time, whoever won this year will get the ‘he only won because Remco had to drop out’ treatment.
    Not at all - it's part of winning that you have to actually make it through the race and not get sick. It's not like it was an asymptomatic positive test.

    No idea if he would have won or not - he wasn't exactly head and shoulders above Roglic in the prep races.

    But I'm not even talking about that, I'm asking whether it would be better for him to race the TDF or just write off the season because he didn't finish the Giro. (As he is racing again, I assume there's no lingering issues.)
    Surely with covid **in the giro**, where he won two stages, it makes sense to go after the Vuelta and the worlds again? To defend both titles?

    Lad has won LBL and two stages in the Giro. His season is already a total success.

    You’re like the Belgians - if he doesn’t hit the Pog mark day one you’ll just write him off.
    Total success is a big call. It's not a disaster by any means, but he was aiming for GC in one of the two actual big grand tours this year.
    You guys are setting a high bar. He’s a quick step rider who won LBL. If Boonen had won Roubaix we’d say it’s a great success.
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,253
    edited June 2023



    Other contenders for years where warm favourite didn't win:
    - 1987: Stephen Roche
    - 1999: He who shall not be named
    - 2008: Sastre, though maybe no real favourite that year
    - 2018: Thomas

    I would ask who the outstanding favourites were in those years?
    87: No Lemond or Hinault.
    99: Both Ullrich and Pantani were absent.
    08: No Contador. Evans was probably the favourite
    18: Froome was favourite but coming off a brutal Giro.

    These years are notable for their absence of LeMond/Indurain/Armstrong/Contador/Froome (full rested).
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,152

    Pross said:

    phreak said:

    phreak said:

    It was interesting reading the comments from Remco recently about why he's not entering the Tour. It really sounds like he's nowhere near the level of Pog and JV.

    Honestly he’d have obliterated the Giro if he hadn’t caught covid.

    He was in bed for 10 days with that covid. And he still won the TT with it.
    He was also dropped by Roglic, Thomas and TGH on the first real hilly stage. Maybe he would have won it, but to say he's on a par with JV and Pog is wholly unproven as he's actively avoided racing either of them in a mountainous stage race, and is actively avoiding them in the Tour this year. I wonder what he's scared of if he's on their level?
    Was that the stage one day before he dropped out with covid? Not going to read a massive amount into that.

    I don't see what he's going to do this season that would be better than showing up to the TDF if he's in any sort of shape. I also don't see that his team has a better climbing option for winning stages if he doesn't want to put himself in the GC reckoning.
    Yet he managed to win the TT the following day. I’m not convinced he was going to keep with the best climbers in the bigger mountains but as I said at the time, whoever won this year will get the ‘he only won because Remco had to drop out’ treatment.
    Not at all - it's part of winning that you have to actually make it through the race and not get sick. It's not like it was an asymptomatic positive test.

    No idea if he would have won or not - he wasn't exactly head and shoulders above Roglic in the prep races.

    But I'm not even talking about that, I'm asking whether it would be better for him to race the TDF or just write off the season because he didn't finish the Giro. (As he is racing again, I assume there's no lingering issues.)
    Surely with covid **in the giro**, where he won two stages, it makes sense to go after the Vuelta and the worlds again? To defend both titles?

    Lad has won LBL and two stages in the Giro. His season is already a total success.

    You’re like the Belgians - if he doesn’t hit the Pog mark day one you’ll just write him off.
    Total success is a big call. It's not a disaster by any means, but he was aiming for GC in one of the two actual big grand tours this year.
    You guys are setting a high bar. He’s a quick step rider who won LBL. If Boonen had won Roubaix we’d say it’s a great success.
    There's a long gap between total success and writing him off. If he gets lbl and vuelta it's a successful season, but not by his own aims at the start of the year.
  • RichN95. said:



    Other contenders for years where warm favourite didn't win:
    - 1987: Stephen Roche
    - 1999: He who shall not be named
    - 2008: Sastre, though maybe no real favourite that year
    - 2018: Thomas

    I would ask who the outstanding favourites were in those years?
    87: No Lemond or Hinault.
    99: Both Ullrich and Pantani were absent.
    08: No Contador. Evans was probably the favourite
    18: Froome was favourite but coming off a brutal Giro.

    These years are notable for their absence of LeMond/Indurain/Armstrong/Contador/Froome (full rested).
    We may be addressing different points. The "favourites" if everyone was available may well have been the names you mention. LeMond certainly was and Contador would have been. Hinault questionable as he'd retired by then. But if someone isn't on the start list then they can't be a favourite, so I was referring to winners other than the favourites amongst those known to be contending.

    Roche was considered unlikely to win the Tour due to his Giro efforts. Conversely, whilst Froome with hindsight wasn't fully recovered from the Giro, he was still the overwhelming favourite. Thomas wasn't a favourite as he was expected to ride for Froome (even by his team until quite late in the race!)

    In 1999, whoever was favourite (Zulle by default?) it certainly wasn't Lance.



  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,253



    We may be addressing different points. The "favourites" if everyone was available may well have been the names you mention. LeMond certainly was and Contador would have been. Hinault questionable as he'd retired by then. But if someone isn't on the start list then they can't be a favourite, so I was referring to winners other than the favourites amongst those known to be contending.

    Every race has a favourite, but not every one has a very strong favourite as Vingegaard currently is with the bookies. And it's those situations I'm talking about. Delgado, Zulle, Evans and a tired Froome weren't strong favourites
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    edited June 2023
    I do think the prep (not a doping euphemism) needed to to go and win a GT, especially the Tour, is way way higher and just being a top rider in not terrible form is not gonna win it for you anymore.

    Not to bang the Remco drum again but he's probably on trend when he talks about spending 6 months prepping for the Giro.

    Even Vingers is riding a classic early 00s schedule, with not much before the Tour except for Paris Nice and the Dauphine > not because he needs to squirrel away EPO or blood bags but because it takes so much specific tuning at altitude to get to the top form.

    Pog is a special rider and I regularly get egg on my face putting special riders down (Cav, anyone?), so the same may well happen, but I think he needs to be near 95-98% at least to beat Vingers (assuming no covid or crashes) and I don't think you get to that level breaking your wrist in mid April. Regardless of what you think you can do on the turbo.
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    r0bh said:

    RichN95. said:

    I saw this tweet earlier. Obviously a Eurosport employee trying to raise expectations. But it's clearly wrong.



    Experience tells us that no race follows form more than the Tour GC. Since I started watching in 1986, you can count the times that a clear, strong favourite hasn't won on the fingers of one hand - 1989 (bad time keeping), 1996 (EPO madness), 1998 (EPO madness), 2014 (crash) and 2022 (team weakness)

    Vingegaard is odds on with most bookies at the moment.
    Other contenders for years where warm favourite didn't win:
    - 1987: Stephen Roche
    - 1999: He who shall not be named
    - 2008: Sastre, though maybe no real favourite that year
    - 2018: Thomas
    - 2020: Pogacar
    2022 Vingegaard
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • andyp
    andyp Posts: 10,549
    Are we really comparing Evenepoel to Gilberto Simoni? He's already got a more impressive palmares and is just 23, and lost a significant part of his nascent career to a major injury.
  • mididoctors
    mididoctors Posts: 18,908
    There's only one way to know remco pog and Jonas got to get in the same race
    "If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661

    There's only one way to know remco pog and Jonas got to get in the same race

    Without breaking wrists or contracting covid…
  • mididoctors
    mididoctors Posts: 18,908

    There's only one way to know remco pog and Jonas got to get in the same race

    Without breaking wrists or contracting covid…
    Vuelta ...take roglic as well
    "If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm
  • phreak
    phreak Posts: 2,953
    andyp said:

    Are we really comparing Evenepoel to Gilberto Simoni? He's already got a more impressive palmares and is just 23, and lost a significant part of his nascent career to a major injury.

    Obviously not in terms of his overall palmares, but my point was that Simoni always looked the dogs nuts in the Giro and then stank the place out in the Tour. Zulle, Rominger, Jalabert et al have all done well in the Giro/Vuelta but fallen well short in the Tour. People are saying that Remco is already in the same group as Pog and JV, I'm just saying that he has a lot to prove before being spoken of in that bracket imo.
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,463

    Pross said:

    phreak said:

    phreak said:

    It was interesting reading the comments from Remco recently about why he's not entering the Tour. It really sounds like he's nowhere near the level of Pog and JV.

    Honestly he’d have obliterated the Giro if he hadn’t caught covid.

    He was in bed for 10 days with that covid. And he still won the TT with it.
    He was also dropped by Roglic, Thomas and TGH on the first real hilly stage. Maybe he would have won it, but to say he's on a par with JV and Pog is wholly unproven as he's actively avoided racing either of them in a mountainous stage race, and is actively avoiding them in the Tour this year. I wonder what he's scared of if he's on their level?
    Was that the stage one day before he dropped out with covid? Not going to read a massive amount into that.

    I don't see what he's going to do this season that would be better than showing up to the TDF if he's in any sort of shape. I also don't see that his team has a better climbing option for winning stages if he doesn't want to put himself in the GC reckoning.
    Yet he managed to win the TT the following day. I’m not convinced he was going to keep with the best climbers in the bigger mountains but as I said at the time, whoever won this year will get the ‘he only won because Remco had to drop out’ treatment.
    Not at all - it's part of winning that you have to actually make it through the race and not get sick. It's not like it was an asymptomatic positive test.

    No idea if he would have won or not - he wasn't exactly head and shoulders above Roglic in the prep races.

    But I'm not even talking about that, I'm asking whether it would be better for him to race the TDF or just write off the season because he didn't finish the Giro. (As he is racing again, I assume there's no lingering issues.)
    Was a reference to Rick’s assertion on the first page that Remco would have walked it.
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,253
    edited June 2023
    phreak said:

    andyp said:

    Are we really comparing Evenepoel to Gilberto Simoni? He's already got a more impressive palmares and is just 23, and lost a significant part of his nascent career to a major injury.

    Obviously not in terms of his overall palmares, but my point was that Simoni always looked the dogs nuts in the Giro and then stank the place out in the Tour. Zulle, Rominger, Jalabert et al have all done well in the Giro/Vuelta but fallen well short in the Tour. People are saying that Remco is already in the same group as Pog and JV, I'm just saying that he has a lot to prove before being spoken of in that bracket imo.

    Talking of Rominger, it's remarkable how closely his and Roglic's palmares currently match up.

    3 Vuelta wins each
    1 Giro win each
    Best at Tour: 2nd
    Tour stages 3 each
    Big one week races - 9 wins each
    Giro stages 5 v 4
    Vuelta stages 13 v 10
    Monuments 2 v 1

    (Rominger's numbers first)

    Of course Roglic still has plenty left in him
    Twitter: @RichN95