Tour de France 2023 build up
rick_chasey
Posts: 75,660
in Pro race
It’s Vingers’ to lose isn’t it?
Put in the kind of Dauphine that says only Pog can follow, and Pog only just started riding his bike again post-wrist injury….
Put in the kind of Dauphine that says only Pog can follow, and Pog only just started riding his bike again post-wrist injury….
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It's well balanced. JV's biggest play last year was having a plausible alternative contender for victory which they don't have this year. "Vingers" does have 2 functioning wrists though, which helps.================================
Cake is just weakness entering the body0 -
(I often abbreviate names or use nicknames to avoid misspelling as my dyslexia means I cannot ever spell unfamiliar names before I get any more grief for them)0
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My own nightmare scenario would be EF merging with Jumbo Visma whilst retaining their existing sponsors and key GC contender.================================
Cake is just weakness entering the body0 -
Better than abbreviating to JV which could be the rider or the teamrick_chasey said:(I often abbreviate names or use nicknames to avoid misspelling as my dyslexia means I cannot ever spell unfamiliar names before I get any more grief for them)
Twitter: @RichN950 -
One issue for Pog is that if he's coming in a little undercooked and hoping to ride into form, he's got to deal with some lumpy Basque stuff to start with (where he might have been favoured to pick up a few seconds over Vingegaard) and then HC Pyrenees from the middle of the first week - including the Tourmalet (one of the few passes over 2k altitude this year). We could see significant damage being done before they get to the first rest dayWarning No formatter is installed for the format0
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I saw this tweet earlier. Obviously a Eurosport employee trying to raise expectations. But it's clearly wrong.
Experience tells us that no race follows form more than the Tour GC. Since I started watching in 1986, you can count the times that a clear, strong favourite hasn't won on the fingers of one hand - 1989 (bad time keeping), 1996 (EPO madness), 1998 (EPO madness), 2014 (crash) and 2022 (team weakness)
Vingegaard is odds on with most bookies at the moment.Twitter: @RichN950 -
Well, given the doom and gloom here, we might as well give Vingegaard the win now and not bother running the race.0
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The Giro finished two weeks ago and is forgotten already.0
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Bit weird, thias time last year I was trying to explain that Vingegaard was a legitimate threat to Pogacar, now I'm having to suggest that Pogacar could still find ways to beat VingegaardWarning No formatter is installed for the format0
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It'll be surprising if it isn't a 2 horse race. Jonas is pretty much at peak form now, and Pog should get better and better as the race goes on. Pog has a much strong team this year than he did last year, but the need to stay rubber side down, and out of the sick bay.0
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Not having a go or picking you out, but you reminded me.Dorset_Boy said:It'll be surprising if it isn't a 2 horse race. Jonas is pretty much at peak form now, and Pog should get better and better as the race goes on. Pog has a much strong team this year than he did last year, but the need to stay rubber side down, and out of the sick bay.
Is racing into form still a thing?
I got the impression training nowadays is such that you arrive in such high form with such bespoke training, that that post-training level will always be higher than racing form.
If you’re going in below your top level you’ll just hurt yourself more keeping up early on?0 -
It was interesting reading the comments from Remco recently about why he's not entering the Tour. It really sounds like he's nowhere near the level of Pog and JV.0
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Honestly he’d have obliterated the Giro if he hadn’t caught covid.phreak said:It was interesting reading the comments from Remco recently about why he's not entering the Tour. It really sounds like he's nowhere near the level of Pog and JV.
He was in bed for 10 days with that covid. And he still won the TT with it.1 -
Is Jonas coming in too hot?"If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm0
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One two with yatesNo_Ta_Doctor said:Bit weird, thias time last year I was trying to explain that Vingegaard was a legitimate threat to Pogacar, now I'm having to suggest that Pogacar could still find ways to beat Vingegaard
"If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm0 -
Yates isn't good enoughmididoctors said:
One two with yatesNo_Ta_Doctor said:Bit weird, thias time last year I was trying to explain that Vingegaard was a legitimate threat to Pogacar, now I'm having to suggest that Pogacar could still find ways to beat Vingegaard
"Unfortunately these days a lot of people don’t understand the real quality of a bike" Ernesto Colnago0 -
Yeah Maybe ....you going to let him down the roadgsk82 said:
Yates isn't good enoughmididoctors said:
One two with yatesNo_Ta_Doctor said:Bit weird, thias time last year I was trying to explain that Vingegaard was a legitimate threat to Pogacar, now I'm having to suggest that Pogacar could still find ways to beat Vingegaard
"If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm1 -
Given the time Pog has had to have off the bike, then surely he can't start in the condition he would have been in had he not broken his wrist?rick_chasey said:
Not having a go or picking you out, but you reminded me.Dorset_Boy said:It'll be surprising if it isn't a 2 horse race. Jonas is pretty much at peak form now, and Pog should get better and better as the race goes on. Pog has a much strong team this year than he did last year, but the need to stay rubber side down, and out of the sick bay.
Is racing into form still a thing?
I got the impression training nowadays is such that you arrive in such high form with such bespoke training, that that post-training level will always be higher than racing form.
If you’re going in below your top level you’ll just hurt yourself more keeping up early on?
Likewise, you have to wonder if Jonas can maintain his form for another 6 weeks.1 -
He'll be fine. He was second behind Roglic last year.Dorset_Boy said:
Likewise, you have to wonder if Jonas can maintain his form for another 6 weeks.Twitter: @RichN950 -
Time off the road, yes. Time off the bike, not so much. Look at Hayman winning P-R off the back of a few weeks on Zwift, for example0
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You definitely see people at least relatively get stronger in the third still . If not actually..conversely riders fading in the third is super commonrick_chasey said:
Not having a go or picking you out, but you reminded me.Dorset_Boy said:It'll be surprising if it isn't a 2 horse race. Jonas is pretty much at peak form now, and Pog should get better and better as the race goes on. Pog has a much strong team this year than he did last year, but the need to stay rubber side down, and out of the sick bay.
Is racing into form still a thing?
I got the impression training nowadays is such that you arrive in such high form with such bespoke training, that that post-training level will always be higher than racing form.
If you’re going in below your top level you’ll just hurt yourself more keeping up early on?"If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm0 -
No. The Dauphine field wasnt greatmididoctors said:Is Jonas coming in too hot?
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He was also dropped by Roglic, Thomas and TGH on the first real hilly stage. Maybe he would have won it, but to say he's on a par with JV and Pog is wholly unproven as he's actively avoided racing either of them in a mountainous stage race, and is actively avoiding them in the Tour this year. I wonder what he's scared of if he's on their level?rick_chasey said:
Honestly he’d have obliterated the Giro if he hadn’t caught covid.phreak said:It was interesting reading the comments from Remco recently about why he's not entering the Tour. It really sounds like he's nowhere near the level of Pog and JV.
He was in bed for 10 days with that covid. And he still won the TT with it.
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I'm wondering just how much Pogacar's injury will affect him - I'm guessing not a great deal so long as it has healed and he's riding pain free and it's not going to rebreak the first time he falls. With sports science he will have been able to put in the same time at the same intensity (and even base himself at altitude) as he would on the road if the motivation is there - and surely with the Tour as the prize and a team to monitor him he won't have been phoning it in. Yes there probably are small differences in inertia, how you use different muscles, cooling etc when training indoors but he's got a month to adapt.
If I was putting money on I'd find it really hard to split them. I might favour JV just on team support if WVA is in form but that'd be it - I know Jonas looked good at the Dauphine but he didn't look invincible.
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I’ve said it elsewhere, he’s not in charge of his own schedule, Lefevre is.phreak said:
He was also dropped by Roglic, Thomas and TGH on the first real hilly stage. Maybe he would have won it, but to say he's on a par with JV and Pog is wholly unproven as he's actively avoided racing either of them in a mountainous stage race, and is actively avoiding them in the Tour this year. I wonder what he's scared of if he's on their level?rick_chasey said:
Honestly he’d have obliterated the Giro if he hadn’t caught covid.phreak said:It was interesting reading the comments from Remco recently about why he's not entering the Tour. It really sounds like he's nowhere near the level of Pog and JV.
He was in bed for 10 days with that covid. And he still won the TT with it.
And I think this idea you can just race into form is just outdated. The training and organisation required to get to GT winning form is extremely involved and you can’t turn around from the Giro, lay on your @rse for 10 days and expect to compete for the Tour.1 -
If Pog's injuries were just on his wrist/hand, he will have and will continue to hit the turbo hard. In which case, I expect him to be in great shape come TDF, hopefully we get a good battle between at least Pog and Vin.================
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He got his 10 days of recovery in while the Giro was still going on. It's not like he completed the Giro, then got sick and had to try to get into shape for the Tour. Also the Tour is the biggest race of the year. If he realistically thought he'd win it then there's no way he or the team would not have him on the start line.rick_chasey said:
I’ve said it elsewhere, he’s not in charge of his own schedule, Lefevre is.phreak said:
He was also dropped by Roglic, Thomas and TGH on the first real hilly stage. Maybe he would have won it, but to say he's on a par with JV and Pog is wholly unproven as he's actively avoided racing either of them in a mountainous stage race, and is actively avoiding them in the Tour this year. I wonder what he's scared of if he's on their level?rick_chasey said:
Honestly he’d have obliterated the Giro if he hadn’t caught covid.phreak said:It was interesting reading the comments from Remco recently about why he's not entering the Tour. It really sounds like he's nowhere near the level of Pog and JV.
He was in bed for 10 days with that covid. And he still won the TT with it.
And I think this idea you can just race into form is just outdated. The training and organisation required to get to GT winning form is extremely involved and you can’t turn around from the Giro, lay on your @rse for 10 days and expect to compete for the Tour.
As it is, he's also said he wouldn't start the Tour de Suisse (which is yet again a race with neither Pog or JV in) if he wasn't in good shape, and yet won't race the Tour because of too much publicity (which is kind of the whole point of bike racing for teams).0 -
I’ve broken the same bone with similar surgery and he won’t have been able to turbo for at least 2 weeks.N0bodyOfTheGoat said:If Pog's injuries were just on his wrist/hand, he will have and will continue to hit the turbo hard. In which case, I expect him to be in great shape come TDF, hopefully we get a good battle between at least Pog and Vin.
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