Tour de France 2023 build up

rick_chasey
rick_chasey Posts: 73,175
It’s Vingers’ to lose isn’t it?

Put in the kind of Dauphine that says only Pog can follow, and Pog only just started riding his bike again post-wrist injury….
«13456789

Comments

  • wakemalcolm
    wakemalcolm Posts: 698
    It's well balanced. JV's biggest play last year was having a plausible alternative contender for victory which they don't have this year. "Vingers" does have 2 functioning wrists though, which helps.
    ================================
    Cake is just weakness entering the body
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 73,175
    (I often abbreviate names or use nicknames to avoid misspelling as my dyslexia means I cannot ever spell unfamiliar names before I get any more grief for them)
  • wakemalcolm
    wakemalcolm Posts: 698
    My own nightmare scenario would be EF merging with Jumbo Visma whilst retaining their existing sponsors and key GC contender.
    ================================
    Cake is just weakness entering the body
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,187

    (I often abbreviate names or use nicknames to avoid misspelling as my dyslexia means I cannot ever spell unfamiliar names before I get any more grief for them)

    Better than abbreviating to JV which could be the rider or the team
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • No_Ta_Doctor
    No_Ta_Doctor Posts: 13,460
    One issue for Pog is that if he's coming in a little undercooked and hoping to ride into form, he's got to deal with some lumpy Basque stuff to start with (where he might have been favoured to pick up a few seconds over Vingegaard) and then HC Pyrenees from the middle of the first week - including the Tourmalet (one of the few passes over 2k altitude this year). We could see significant damage being done before they get to the first rest day
    Warning No formatter is installed for the format
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,187
    edited June 2023
    I saw this tweet earlier. Obviously a Eurosport employee trying to raise expectations. But it's clearly wrong.



    Experience tells us that no race follows form more than the Tour GC. Since I started watching in 1986, you can count the times that a clear, strong favourite hasn't won on the fingers of one hand - 1989 (bad time keeping), 1996 (EPO madness), 1998 (EPO madness), 2014 (crash) and 2022 (team weakness)

    Vingegaard is odds on with most bookies at the moment.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • andyp
    andyp Posts: 10,171
    Well, given the doom and gloom here, we might as well give Vingegaard the win now and not bother running the race.
  • andyp
    andyp Posts: 10,171
    The Giro finished two weeks ago and is forgotten already.
  • No_Ta_Doctor
    No_Ta_Doctor Posts: 13,460
    edited June 2023
    Bit weird, thias time last year I was trying to explain that Vingegaard was a legitimate threat to Pogacar, now I'm having to suggest that Pogacar could still find ways to beat Vingegaard
    Warning No formatter is installed for the format
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 73,175
    andyp said:

    The Giro finished two weeks ago and is forgotten already.

    Well yes covid can obliterate any race but there’s not much punditry in that
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,187
    andyp said:

    Well, given the doom and gloom here, we might as well give Vingegaard the win now and not bother running the race.


    There's always more to the Tour than the GC race. An outstanding favourite winning is the Tour's default setting. A lot depends on Pogacar though.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • Dorset_Boy
    Dorset_Boy Posts: 7,007
    It'll be surprising if it isn't a 2 horse race. Jonas is pretty much at peak form now, and Pog should get better and better as the race goes on. Pog has a much strong team this year than he did last year, but the need to stay rubber side down, and out of the sick bay.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 73,175

    It'll be surprising if it isn't a 2 horse race. Jonas is pretty much at peak form now, and Pog should get better and better as the race goes on. Pog has a much strong team this year than he did last year, but the need to stay rubber side down, and out of the sick bay.

    Not having a go or picking you out, but you reminded me.

    Is racing into form still a thing?

    I got the impression training nowadays is such that you arrive in such high form with such bespoke training, that that post-training level will always be higher than racing form.

    If you’re going in below your top level you’ll just hurt yourself more keeping up early on?
  • phreak
    phreak Posts: 2,919
    It was interesting reading the comments from Remco recently about why he's not entering the Tour. It really sounds like he's nowhere near the level of Pog and JV.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 73,175
    edited June 2023
    phreak said:

    It was interesting reading the comments from Remco recently about why he's not entering the Tour. It really sounds like he's nowhere near the level of Pog and JV.

    Honestly he’d have obliterated the Giro if he hadn’t caught covid.

    He was in bed for 10 days with that covid. And he still won the TT with it.
  • mididoctors
    mididoctors Posts: 17,469
    edited June 2023
    Is Jonas coming in too hot?
    "If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm
  • mididoctors
    mididoctors Posts: 17,469

    Bit weird, thias time last year I was trying to explain that Vingegaard was a legitimate threat to Pogacar, now I'm having to suggest that Pogacar could still find ways to beat Vingegaard

    One two with yates
    "If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm
  • gsk82
    gsk82 Posts: 3,479

    Bit weird, thias time last year I was trying to explain that Vingegaard was a legitimate threat to Pogacar, now I'm having to suggest that Pogacar could still find ways to beat Vingegaard

    One two with yates
    Yates isn't good enough
    "Unfortunately these days a lot of people don’t understand the real quality of a bike" Ernesto Colnago
  • mididoctors
    mididoctors Posts: 17,469
    gsk82 said:

    Bit weird, thias time last year I was trying to explain that Vingegaard was a legitimate threat to Pogacar, now I'm having to suggest that Pogacar could still find ways to beat Vingegaard

    One two with yates
    Yates isn't good enough
    Yeah Maybe ....you going to let him down the road
    "If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm
  • Dorset_Boy
    Dorset_Boy Posts: 7,007

    It'll be surprising if it isn't a 2 horse race. Jonas is pretty much at peak form now, and Pog should get better and better as the race goes on. Pog has a much strong team this year than he did last year, but the need to stay rubber side down, and out of the sick bay.

    Not having a go or picking you out, but you reminded me.

    Is racing into form still a thing?

    I got the impression training nowadays is such that you arrive in such high form with such bespoke training, that that post-training level will always be higher than racing form.

    If you’re going in below your top level you’ll just hurt yourself more keeping up early on?
    Given the time Pog has had to have off the bike, then surely he can't start in the condition he would have been in had he not broken his wrist?

    Likewise, you have to wonder if Jonas can maintain his form for another 6 weeks.
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,187



    Likewise, you have to wonder if Jonas can maintain his form for another 6 weeks.

    He'll be fine. He was second behind Roglic last year.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • r0bh
    r0bh Posts: 2,216
    Time off the road, yes. Time off the bike, not so much. Look at Hayman winning P-R off the back of a few weeks on Zwift, for example
  • mididoctors
    mididoctors Posts: 17,469

    It'll be surprising if it isn't a 2 horse race. Jonas is pretty much at peak form now, and Pog should get better and better as the race goes on. Pog has a much strong team this year than he did last year, but the need to stay rubber side down, and out of the sick bay.

    Not having a go or picking you out, but you reminded me.

    Is racing into form still a thing?

    I got the impression training nowadays is such that you arrive in such high form with such bespoke training, that that post-training level will always be higher than racing form.

    If you’re going in below your top level you’ll just hurt yourself more keeping up early on?
    You definitely see people at least relatively get stronger in the third still . If not actually..conversely riders fading in the third is super common
    "If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm
  • stage_hunter
    stage_hunter Posts: 238

    Is Jonas coming in too hot?

    No. The Dauphine field wasnt great
  • phreak
    phreak Posts: 2,919

    phreak said:

    It was interesting reading the comments from Remco recently about why he's not entering the Tour. It really sounds like he's nowhere near the level of Pog and JV.

    Honestly he’d have obliterated the Giro if he hadn’t caught covid.

    He was in bed for 10 days with that covid. And he still won the TT with it.
    He was also dropped by Roglic, Thomas and TGH on the first real hilly stage. Maybe he would have won it, but to say he's on a par with JV and Pog is wholly unproven as he's actively avoided racing either of them in a mountainous stage race, and is actively avoiding them in the Tour this year. I wonder what he's scared of if he's on their level?
  • DeVlaeminck
    DeVlaeminck Posts: 8,761
    I'm wondering just how much Pogacar's injury will affect him - I'm guessing not a great deal so long as it has healed and he's riding pain free and it's not going to rebreak the first time he falls. With sports science he will have been able to put in the same time at the same intensity (and even base himself at altitude) as he would on the road if the motivation is there - and surely with the Tour as the prize and a team to monitor him he won't have been phoning it in. Yes there probably are small differences in inertia, how you use different muscles, cooling etc when training indoors but he's got a month to adapt.


    If I was putting money on I'd find it really hard to split them. I might favour JV just on team support if WVA is in form but that'd be it - I know Jonas looked good at the Dauphine but he didn't look invincible.
    [Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 73,175
    phreak said:

    phreak said:

    It was interesting reading the comments from Remco recently about why he's not entering the Tour. It really sounds like he's nowhere near the level of Pog and JV.

    Honestly he’d have obliterated the Giro if he hadn’t caught covid.

    He was in bed for 10 days with that covid. And he still won the TT with it.
    He was also dropped by Roglic, Thomas and TGH on the first real hilly stage. Maybe he would have won it, but to say he's on a par with JV and Pog is wholly unproven as he's actively avoided racing either of them in a mountainous stage race, and is actively avoiding them in the Tour this year. I wonder what he's scared of if he's on their level?
    I’ve said it elsewhere, he’s not in charge of his own schedule, Lefevre is.

    And I think this idea you can just race into form is just outdated. The training and organisation required to get to GT winning form is extremely involved and you can’t turn around from the Giro, lay on your @rse for 10 days and expect to compete for the Tour.
  • N0bodyOfTheGoat
    N0bodyOfTheGoat Posts: 5,881
    If Pog's injuries were just on his wrist/hand, he will have and will continue to hit the turbo hard. In which case, I expect him to be in great shape come TDF, hopefully we get a good battle between at least Pog and Vin.
    ================
    2020 Voodoo Marasa
    2017 Cube Attain GTC Pro Disc 2016
    2016 Voodoo Wazoo
  • phreak
    phreak Posts: 2,919

    phreak said:

    phreak said:

    It was interesting reading the comments from Remco recently about why he's not entering the Tour. It really sounds like he's nowhere near the level of Pog and JV.

    Honestly he’d have obliterated the Giro if he hadn’t caught covid.

    He was in bed for 10 days with that covid. And he still won the TT with it.
    He was also dropped by Roglic, Thomas and TGH on the first real hilly stage. Maybe he would have won it, but to say he's on a par with JV and Pog is wholly unproven as he's actively avoided racing either of them in a mountainous stage race, and is actively avoiding them in the Tour this year. I wonder what he's scared of if he's on their level?
    I’ve said it elsewhere, he’s not in charge of his own schedule, Lefevre is.

    And I think this idea you can just race into form is just outdated. The training and organisation required to get to GT winning form is extremely involved and you can’t turn around from the Giro, lay on your @rse for 10 days and expect to compete for the Tour.
    He got his 10 days of recovery in while the Giro was still going on. It's not like he completed the Giro, then got sick and had to try to get into shape for the Tour. Also the Tour is the biggest race of the year. If he realistically thought he'd win it then there's no way he or the team would not have him on the start line.

    As it is, he's also said he wouldn't start the Tour de Suisse (which is yet again a race with neither Pog or JV in) if he wasn't in good shape, and yet won't race the Tour because of too much publicity (which is kind of the whole point of bike racing for teams).
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 73,175

    If Pog's injuries were just on his wrist/hand, he will have and will continue to hit the turbo hard. In which case, I expect him to be in great shape come TDF, hopefully we get a good battle between at least Pog and Vin.

    I’ve broken the same bone with similar surgery and he won’t have been able to turbo for at least 2 weeks.