The big Coronavirus thread

tailwindhome

Stevo_666 said:

Got some feedback from the 'front line' - a mate of mine is a NHS consultant specialising in respiratory illnesses and has just spent 10 days on the COVID-19 section of the large London hospital where he works. Here's what he said when asked how he was doing (as we hadn't heard from him in a while):

"It's OK I am WFH today having done 10 days on the spin. It has been grim as he death rate has doubled from normal but my hospital has coped quite well. The media reports are always slightly behind what is happening. So although deaths and cases are rising like the ripple effect of a stone dropped in a pond nationally I think London may be settling. I'm just not sure and await another huge surge in next week that is the horrible uncertainty of it all.

I think the lock down is working though and will kill the epidemic and has probably save many lives. Given all the dreadful politics in recent times it has been gratifying to see the country pull together and the NHS rise to the challenge - the British spirit is still there."

And all we have to do is stay and home and watch TV for a bit.
Not really a lot is being asked of *most* of us.

tailwindhome

...

tailwindhome

Stevo_666 said:

Got some feedback from the 'front line' - a mate of mine is a NHS consultant specialising in respiratory illnesses and has just spent 10 days on the COVID-19 section of the large London hospital where he works. Here's what he said when asked how he was doing (as we hadn't heard from him in a while):

"It's OK I am WFH today having done 10 days on the spin. It has been grim as he death rate has doubled from normal but my hospital has coped quite well. The media reports are always slightly behind what is happening. So although deaths and cases are rising like the ripple effect of a stone dropped in a pond nationally I think London may be settling. I'm just not sure and await another huge surge in next week that is the horrible uncertainty of it all.

I think the lock down is working though and will kill the epidemic and has probably save many lives. Given all the dreadful politics in recent times it has been gratifying to see the country pull together and the NHS rise to the challenge - the British spirit is still there."

And all we're being asked to do is stay at home and watch TV for a bit.
It's not really a lot being asked off *most* of us.

Wheelspinner

Pross said:

Wheelspinner said:

surrey_commuter said:

kingstongraham said:

coopster_the_1st said:

kingstongraham said:

But feel free to show me something that convinces me that minimising deaths and hospitalisations due to coronavirus isn't the right priority at the moment.

We are not doing this.

If we were really serious about minimising deaths we would move all the vulnerable and old into designated quanrantined areas (take over Universities, Holiday camps, etc) and keep them there away from the risks of society until they can be vaccinated.

Why not use cruise ships?

This did not get the recognition it deserved

Staffed by whom FFS?

I think it was sarcasm (based on the number of elderly people on cruises who were among the first victims) taking a dig at the idea that sticking the vulnerable people in one location will keep them safe.

Had another look and read, and you may be right. I've given up on this thread trying to decipher troll-speak from genuine comment from humour in any form.

You lot have my sympathies.

kingstongraham

Wheelspinner said:

Pross said:

Wheelspinner said:

surrey_commuter said:

kingstongraham said:

coopster_the_1st said:

kingstongraham said:

But feel free to show me something that convinces me that minimising deaths and hospitalisations due to coronavirus isn't the right priority at the moment.

We are not doing this.

If we were really serious about minimising deaths we would move all the vulnerable and old into designated quanrantined areas (take over Universities, Holiday camps, etc) and keep them there away from the risks of society until they can be vaccinated.

Why not use cruise ships?

This did not get the recognition it deserved

Staffed by whom FFS?

I think it was sarcasm (based on the number of elderly people on cruises who were among the first victims) taking a dig at the idea that sticking the vulnerable people in one location will keep them safe.

Had another look and read, and you may be right. I've given up on this thread trying to decipher troll-speak from genuine comment from humour in any form.

You lot have my sympathies.

Was a solid joke. I take offence at any suggestion otherwise.

rjsterry

Stevo_666 said:

Got some feedback from the 'front line' - a mate of mine is a NHS consultant specialising in respiratory illnesses and has just spent 10 days on the COVID-19 section of the large London hospital where he works. Here's what he said when asked how he was doing (as we hadn't heard from him in a while):

"It's OK I am WFH today having done 10 days on the spin. It has been grim as he death rate has doubled from normal but my hospital has coped quite well. The media reports are always slightly behind what is happening. So although deaths and cases are rising like the ripple effect of a stone dropped in a pond nationally I think London may be settling. I'm just not sure and await another huge surge in next week that is the horrible uncertainty of it all.

I think the lock down is working though and will kill the epidemic and has probably save many lives. Given all the dreadful politics in recent times it has been gratifying to see the country pull together and the NHS rise to the challenge - the British spirit is still there."

Good to hear some hopeful news. Fingers crossed he's right.

Stevo_666

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

Got some feedback from the 'front line' - a mate of mine is a NHS consultant specialising in respiratory illnesses and has just spent 10 days on the COVID-19 section of the large London hospital where he works. Here's what he said when asked how he was doing (as we hadn't heard from him in a while):

"It's OK I am WFH today having done 10 days on the spin. It has been grim as he death rate has doubled from normal but my hospital has coped quite well. The media reports are always slightly behind what is happening. So although deaths and cases are rising like the ripple effect of a stone dropped in a pond nationally I think London may be settling. I'm just not sure and await another huge surge in next week that is the horrible uncertainty of it all.

I think the lock down is working though and will kill the epidemic and has probably save many lives. Given all the dreadful politics in recent times it has been gratifying to see the country pull together and the NHS rise to the challenge - the British spirit is still there."

Good to hear some hopeful news. Fingers crossed he's right.

Yes, overall that is better than what we are hearing from some perhaps less informed sources.

coopster_the_1st

coopster_the_1st said:

tailwindhome said:

coopster_the_1st said:

tailwindhome said:

"We need a reason why we aren't testing"

"Tell them we don't have chemicals"

"Brilliant. No one will ever check"

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1245046542974750720?s=19

Something doesn't smell right about this from the government side.

You voted for them to own the libs
and the word you're looking for is 'lie'

Lie could be correct but I use smell because I trust Prof Chris Whitty (CMO), Dr Jenny Harries (Deputy CMO) & Sir Patrick Vallance (CSO). They are saying the same things on testing so must know the real reason. Also, the CMO's of Scotland, Wales and NI would also know this and I really can't see Nicola Sturgeon covering up for this government.

On the other side it is Peston and that says enough as he has an ego to maintain

Starting to look like Peston's career is going to die because of Coronavirus...

Stevo_666

Also here is a assessment from JP Morgan on which countries will be worst affects by the pandemic. Behind a paywall so have cut and pasted: overall it is not quite as apocalyptic as some other predictions.

Looks like the drop for UK and Eurozone is of a similar order of magnitude as the GFC, perhaps slightly less if my recollection of the GFC imact on GDP is accurate.

"No economy is going to be spared the impact of coronavirus – even countries with few cases will suffer from collapsing demand around the world.

Which nation will be hit hardest? It depends first on the extent of the outbreak locally and in key export and import markets. The success or failure of efforts by governments and central banks matters, as they can determine the pace of recovery afterwards.

JP Morgan’s economists publish forecasts for economies across the world every week.

They have slashed the outlook for growth in 2020 across the board. Every one of the more than 40 countries and regions tracked has lower forecast GDP growth now than at the start of January.

Here are the most severe falls.

Mexico
Mexico faces a collapse of 7pc in its GDP this year, the joint-worst in JP Morgan’s forecasts.

It is also the biggest faller – previously it was expected to grow by 1.5pc, so this is a reversal of 8.5 percentage points.

In part the reasons are geographic: Mexico is heavily reliant on the US, to its north. The world’s biggest economy is now the epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak, sending unemployment soaring and devastating cross-border trade and travel. The US itself is predicted to suffer a 5.3pc fall in GDP, making it the fourth worst-hit economy on this list.

That would be bad enough on its own, but Mexico has yet to feel the full force of the pandemic domestically - it faces one economic slump from the US crash, then a second later in the year when local activity is hit.

That terrible double whammy puts it at the top of the list of hard-hit nations.

Mexico is at the top of a very ugly league table
Bar chart with 10 bars.
Nowhere in the world gets off lightly according to JP Morgan's forecasts

South Africa
South Africa can also expect to shrink 7pc this year.

However its starting point was weaker, at 0.7pc anticipated growth for 2020, so the hit to its outlook is not quite as severe.

Around half of its economy is effectively closed through a lockdown, slashing GDP in the short term.

But it also faces a tough recovery. Weak national finances led Moody’s to cut its rating on South African debt to junk status last week, making it harder and more expensive for the government to borrow just as it needs to spend heavily to battle the crisis.

Economists at Citi expect a budget deficit of between 10pc and 12pc of GDP this year, a heavy burden for a troubled nation.


New Zealand
New Zealand began the year expecting a reasonably healthy 2.4pc expansion, so the virus lockdown immediately wiped out those prospects.

Add to that a 4.8pc recession and it comes in third in the rankings of hardest-hit economies, losing 7.2 percentage points.

It is very similar to near-neighbour Australia, which looks set to break its 28-year run without a recession, becoming the fifth worst affected nation.

Both economies have been powered in part by export growth in recent years, with New Zealand’s food highly valued around the world and Australia’s mining industry a key supplier of China – so both will be damaged by slumping demand from Asia.


Thailand
Skipping the aforementioned US and Australia, the next hardest-hit is Thailand.

Its projected 2.8pc expansion has become a 3.3pc contraction, a fall of 6.1 percentage points.

Thailand’s proximity to China and its popularity as a tourist destination make it especially vulnerable to a lockdown of global travel.

Almost 40 million visitors head to Thailand each year – double the number who went a decade ago, underlining the power of tourism in boosting the economy.

International travel limits and restrictions may be among the last measures lifted after the pandemic, and consumers may be reluctant to make long flights or visit distant countries so soon after an outbreak.


Spain
Spain and Italy are both set for near-identical 4pc recessions this year, but Spain counts as harder hit because it was previously expected to show the strongest growth this year.

Both have been devastated by the pandemic, which swept through swathes of their populations more quickly than other European nations.


Lengthy lockdowns are slashing production in the services-heavy economies, while their reliance on tourists is also going to devastate incomes through much of the year.

Distress over the lack of help on offer from elsewhere in the eurozone could also prolong the agony if the health crisis and recession become a political clash across the currency union.

They are at the forefront of a recession that is expected to lead to a 3.4pc fall in Eurozone GDP this year. Britain will not be spared either as it is in line for a contraction of 3.7pc."

tailwindhome

coopster_the_1st said:

Starting to look like Peston's career is going to die because of Coronavirus...

That won't be a bad outcome.

coopster_the_1st

tailwindhome said:

coopster_the_1st said:

Starting to look like Peston's career is going to die because of Coronavirus...

That won't be a bad outcome.

We agree

briantrumpet

Stevo_666 said:

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

Got some feedback from the 'front line' - a mate of mine is a NHS consultant specialising in respiratory illnesses and has just spent 10 days on the COVID-19 section of the large London hospital where he works. Here's what he said when asked how he was doing (as we hadn't heard from him in a while):

"It's OK I am WFH today having done 10 days on the spin. It has been grim as he death rate has doubled from normal but my hospital has coped quite well. The media reports are always slightly behind what is happening. So although deaths and cases are rising like the ripple effect of a stone dropped in a pond nationally I think London may be settling. I'm just not sure and await another huge surge in next week that is the horrible uncertainty of it all.

I think the lock down is working though and will kill the epidemic and has probably save many lives. Given all the dreadful politics in recent times it has been gratifying to see the country pull together and the NHS rise to the challenge - the British spirit is still there."

Good to hear some hopeful news. Fingers crossed he's right.

Yes, overall that is better than what we are hearing from some perhaps less informed sources.

I might risk asking one or two of my medic friends what it's looking like in the RD&E in Exeter... generally it's nothing like London, as far as I can tell, though I do have a local friend who lost her dad to it this week, and I do wonder about how quickly the information is feeding into the national figures.

rjsterry

Stevo_666 said:

Also here is a assessment from JP Morgan on which countries will be worst affects by the pandemic. Behind a paywall so have cut and pasted: overall it is not quite as apocalyptic as some other predictions.

Looks like the drop for UK and Eurozone is of a similar order of magnitude as the GFC, perhaps slightly less if my recollection of the GFC imact on GDP is accurate.

"No economy is going to be spared the impact of coronavirus – even countries with few cases will suffer from collapsing demand around the world.

Which nation will be hit hardest? It depends first on the extent of the outbreak locally and in key export and import markets. The success or failure of efforts by governments and central banks matters, as they can determine the pace of recovery afterwards.

JP Morgan’s economists publish forecasts for economies across the world every week.

They have slashed the outlook for growth in 2020 across the board. Every one of the more than 40 countries and regions tracked has lower forecast GDP growth now than at the start of January.

Here are the most severe falls.

Mexico
Mexico faces a collapse of 7pc in its GDP this year, the joint-worst in JP Morgan’s forecasts.

It is also the biggest faller – previously it was expected to grow by 1.5pc, so this is a reversal of 8.5 percentage points.

In part the reasons are geographic: Mexico is heavily reliant on the US, to its north. The world’s biggest economy is now the epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak, sending unemployment soaring and devastating cross-border trade and travel. The US itself is predicted to suffer a 5.3pc fall in GDP, making it the fourth worst-hit economy on this list.

That would be bad enough on its own, but Mexico has yet to feel the full force of the pandemic domestically - it faces one economic slump from the US crash, then a second later in the year when local activity is hit.

That terrible double whammy puts it at the top of the list of hard-hit nations.

Mexico is at the top of a very ugly league table
Bar chart with 10 bars.
Nowhere in the world gets off lightly according to JP Morgan's forecasts

South Africa
South Africa can also expect to shrink 7pc this year.

However its starting point was weaker, at 0.7pc anticipated growth for 2020, so the hit to its outlook is not quite as severe.

Around half of its economy is effectively closed through a lockdown, slashing GDP in the short term.

But it also faces a tough recovery. Weak national finances led Moody’s to cut its rating on South African debt to junk status last week, making it harder and more expensive for the government to borrow just as it needs to spend heavily to battle the crisis.

Economists at Citi expect a budget deficit of between 10pc and 12pc of GDP this year, a heavy burden for a troubled nation.


New Zealand
New Zealand began the year expecting a reasonably healthy 2.4pc expansion, so the virus lockdown immediately wiped out those prospects.

Add to that a 4.8pc recession and it comes in third in the rankings of hardest-hit economies, losing 7.2 percentage points.

It is very similar to near-neighbour Australia, which looks set to break its 28-year run without a recession, becoming the fifth worst affected nation.

Both economies have been powered in part by export growth in recent years, with New Zealand’s food highly valued around the world and Australia’s mining industry a key supplier of China – so both will be damaged by slumping demand from Asia.


Thailand
Skipping the aforementioned US and Australia, the next hardest-hit is Thailand.

Its projected 2.8pc expansion has become a 3.3pc contraction, a fall of 6.1 percentage points.

Thailand’s proximity to China and its popularity as a tourist destination make it especially vulnerable to a lockdown of global travel.

Almost 40 million visitors head to Thailand each year – double the number who went a decade ago, underlining the power of tourism in boosting the economy.

International travel limits and restrictions may be among the last measures lifted after the pandemic, and consumers may be reluctant to make long flights or visit distant countries so soon after an outbreak.


Spain
Spain and Italy are both set for near-identical 4pc recessions this year, but Spain counts as harder hit because it was previously expected to show the strongest growth this year.

Both have been devastated by the pandemic, which swept through swathes of their populations more quickly than other European nations.


Lengthy lockdowns are slashing production in the services-heavy economies, while their reliance on tourists is also going to devastate incomes through much of the year.

Distress over the lack of help on offer from elsewhere in the eurozone could also prolong the agony if the health crisis and recession become a political clash across the currency union.

They are at the forefront of a recession that is expected to lead to a 3.4pc fall in Eurozone GDP this year. Britain will not be spared either as it is in line for a contraction of 3.7pc."

Well that doesn't look like much fun. Let's hope we can rebound as quickly as possible.

Stevo_666

briantrumpet said:

Stevo_666 said:

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

Got some feedback from the 'front line' - a mate of mine is a NHS consultant specialising in respiratory illnesses and has just spent 10 days on the COVID-19 section of the large London hospital where he works. Here's what he said when asked how he was doing (as we hadn't heard from him in a while):

"It's OK I am WFH today having done 10 days on the spin. It has been grim as he death rate has doubled from normal but my hospital has coped quite well. The media reports are always slightly behind what is happening. So although deaths and cases are rising like the ripple effect of a stone dropped in a pond nationally I think London may be settling. I'm just not sure and await another huge surge in next week that is the horrible uncertainty of it all.

I think the lock down is working though and will kill the epidemic and has probably save many lives. Given all the dreadful politics in recent times it has been gratifying to see the country pull together and the NHS rise to the challenge - the British spirit is still there."

Good to hear some hopeful news. Fingers crossed he's right.

Yes, overall that is better than what we are hearing from some perhaps less informed sources.

I might risk asking one or two of my medic friends what it's looking like in the RD&E in Exeter... generally it's nothing like London, as far as I can tell, though I do have a local friend who lost her dad to it this week, and I do wonder about how quickly the information is feeding into the national figures.

I'd be interested to know Brian.

My other medic mate (NHS anesthetist working in Lincolnshire) hasn't yet been roped in to the COVID-19 effort as there weren't enough hospital cases in the area to warrant it, although clearly that may well change.

Stevo_666

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

Also here is a assessment from JP Morgan on which countries will be worst affects by the pandemic. Behind a paywall so have cut and pasted: overall it is not quite as apocalyptic as some other predictions.

Looks like the drop for UK and Eurozone is of a similar order of magnitude as the GFC, perhaps slightly less if my recollection of the GFC imact on GDP is accurate.

"No economy is going to be spared the impact of coronavirus – even countries with few cases will suffer from collapsing demand around the world.

Which nation will be hit hardest? It depends first on the extent of the outbreak locally and in key export and import markets. The success or failure of efforts by governments and central banks matters, as they can determine the pace of recovery afterwards.

JP Morgan’s economists publish forecasts for economies across the world every week.

They have slashed the outlook for growth in 2020 across the board. Every one of the more than 40 countries and regions tracked has lower forecast GDP growth now than at the start of January.

Here are the most severe falls.

Mexico
Mexico faces a collapse of 7pc in its GDP this year, the joint-worst in JP Morgan’s forecasts.

It is also the biggest faller – previously it was expected to grow by 1.5pc, so this is a reversal of 8.5 percentage points.

In part the reasons are geographic: Mexico is heavily reliant on the US, to its north. The world’s biggest economy is now the epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak, sending unemployment soaring and devastating cross-border trade and travel. The US itself is predicted to suffer a 5.3pc fall in GDP, making it the fourth worst-hit economy on this list.

That would be bad enough on its own, but Mexico has yet to feel the full force of the pandemic domestically - it faces one economic slump from the US crash, then a second later in the year when local activity is hit.

That terrible double whammy puts it at the top of the list of hard-hit nations.

Mexico is at the top of a very ugly league table
Bar chart with 10 bars.
Nowhere in the world gets off lightly according to JP Morgan's forecasts

South Africa
South Africa can also expect to shrink 7pc this year.

However its starting point was weaker, at 0.7pc anticipated growth for 2020, so the hit to its outlook is not quite as severe.

Around half of its economy is effectively closed through a lockdown, slashing GDP in the short term.

But it also faces a tough recovery. Weak national finances led Moody’s to cut its rating on South African debt to junk status last week, making it harder and more expensive for the government to borrow just as it needs to spend heavily to battle the crisis.

Economists at Citi expect a budget deficit of between 10pc and 12pc of GDP this year, a heavy burden for a troubled nation.


New Zealand
New Zealand began the year expecting a reasonably healthy 2.4pc expansion, so the virus lockdown immediately wiped out those prospects.

Add to that a 4.8pc recession and it comes in third in the rankings of hardest-hit economies, losing 7.2 percentage points.

It is very similar to near-neighbour Australia, which looks set to break its 28-year run without a recession, becoming the fifth worst affected nation.

Both economies have been powered in part by export growth in recent years, with New Zealand’s food highly valued around the world and Australia’s mining industry a key supplier of China – so both will be damaged by slumping demand from Asia.


Thailand
Skipping the aforementioned US and Australia, the next hardest-hit is Thailand.

Its projected 2.8pc expansion has become a 3.3pc contraction, a fall of 6.1 percentage points.

Thailand’s proximity to China and its popularity as a tourist destination make it especially vulnerable to a lockdown of global travel.

Almost 40 million visitors head to Thailand each year – double the number who went a decade ago, underlining the power of tourism in boosting the economy.

International travel limits and restrictions may be among the last measures lifted after the pandemic, and consumers may be reluctant to make long flights or visit distant countries so soon after an outbreak.


Spain
Spain and Italy are both set for near-identical 4pc recessions this year, but Spain counts as harder hit because it was previously expected to show the strongest growth this year.

Both have been devastated by the pandemic, which swept through swathes of their populations more quickly than other European nations.


Lengthy lockdowns are slashing production in the services-heavy economies, while their reliance on tourists is also going to devastate incomes through much of the year.

Distress over the lack of help on offer from elsewhere in the eurozone could also prolong the agony if the health crisis and recession become a political clash across the currency union.

They are at the forefront of a recession that is expected to lead to a 3.4pc fall in Eurozone GDP this year. Britain will not be spared either as it is in line for a contraction of 3.7pc."

Well that doesn't look like much fun. Let's hope we can rebound as quickly as possible.

Clearly bad, but but not 'Apocalypse Now'.

surrey_commuter

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

Also here is a assessment from JP Morgan on which countries will be worst affects by the pandemic. Behind a paywall so have cut and pasted: overall it is not quite as apocalyptic as some other predictions.

Looks like the drop for UK and Eurozone is of a similar order of magnitude as the GFC, perhaps slightly less if my recollection of the GFC imact on GDP is accurate.

"No economy is going to be spared the impact of coronavirus – even countries with few cases will suffer from collapsing demand around the world.

Which nation will be hit hardest? It depends first on the extent of the outbreak locally and in key export and import markets. The success or failure of efforts by governments and central banks matters, as they can determine the pace of recovery afterwards.

JP Morgan’s economists publish forecasts for economies across the world every week.

They have slashed the outlook for growth in 2020 across the board. Every one of the more than 40 countries and regions tracked has lower forecast GDP growth now than at the start of January.

Here are the most severe falls.

Mexico
Mexico faces a collapse of 7pc in its GDP this year, the joint-worst in JP Morgan’s forecasts.

It is also the biggest faller – previously it was expected to grow by 1.5pc, so this is a reversal of 8.5 percentage points.

In part the reasons are geographic: Mexico is heavily reliant on the US, to its north. The world’s biggest economy is now the epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak, sending unemployment soaring and devastating cross-border trade and travel. The US itself is predicted to suffer a 5.3pc fall in GDP, making it the fourth worst-hit economy on this list.

That would be bad enough on its own, but Mexico has yet to feel the full force of the pandemic domestically - it faces one economic slump from the US crash, then a second later in the year when local activity is hit.

That terrible double whammy puts it at the top of the list of hard-hit nations.

Mexico is at the top of a very ugly league table
Bar chart with 10 bars.
Nowhere in the world gets off lightly according to JP Morgan's forecasts

South Africa
South Africa can also expect to shrink 7pc this year.

However its starting point was weaker, at 0.7pc anticipated growth for 2020, so the hit to its outlook is not quite as severe.

Around half of its economy is effectively closed through a lockdown, slashing GDP in the short term.

But it also faces a tough recovery. Weak national finances led Moody’s to cut its rating on South African debt to junk status last week, making it harder and more expensive for the government to borrow just as it needs to spend heavily to battle the crisis.

Economists at Citi expect a budget deficit of between 10pc and 12pc of GDP this year, a heavy burden for a troubled nation.


New Zealand
New Zealand began the year expecting a reasonably healthy 2.4pc expansion, so the virus lockdown immediately wiped out those prospects.

Add to that a 4.8pc recession and it comes in third in the rankings of hardest-hit economies, losing 7.2 percentage points.

It is very similar to near-neighbour Australia, which looks set to break its 28-year run without a recession, becoming the fifth worst affected nation.

Both economies have been powered in part by export growth in recent years, with New Zealand’s food highly valued around the world and Australia’s mining industry a key supplier of China – so both will be damaged by slumping demand from Asia.


Thailand
Skipping the aforementioned US and Australia, the next hardest-hit is Thailand.

Its projected 2.8pc expansion has become a 3.3pc contraction, a fall of 6.1 percentage points.

Thailand’s proximity to China and its popularity as a tourist destination make it especially vulnerable to a lockdown of global travel.

Almost 40 million visitors head to Thailand each year – double the number who went a decade ago, underlining the power of tourism in boosting the economy.

International travel limits and restrictions may be among the last measures lifted after the pandemic, and consumers may be reluctant to make long flights or visit distant countries so soon after an outbreak.


Spain
Spain and Italy are both set for near-identical 4pc recessions this year, but Spain counts as harder hit because it was previously expected to show the strongest growth this year.

Both have been devastated by the pandemic, which swept through swathes of their populations more quickly than other European nations.


Lengthy lockdowns are slashing production in the services-heavy economies, while their reliance on tourists is also going to devastate incomes through much of the year.

Distress over the lack of help on offer from elsewhere in the eurozone could also prolong the agony if the health crisis and recession become a political clash across the currency union.

They are at the forefront of a recession that is expected to lead to a 3.4pc fall in Eurozone GDP this year. Britain will not be spared either as it is in line for a contraction of 3.7pc."

Well that doesn't look like much fun. Let's hope we can rebound as quickly as possible.

If our economy only contracts by 3.4% then I will breathe a sigh of relief. It will be very regionalised as some industries are able to work from home than others.

rjsterry

Stevo_666 said:

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

Also here is a assessment from JP Morgan on which countries will be worst affects by the pandemic. Behind a paywall so have cut and pasted: overall it is not quite as apocalyptic as some other predictions.

Looks like the drop for UK and Eurozone is of a similar order of magnitude as the GFC, perhaps slightly less if my recollection of the GFC imact on GDP is accurate.

"No economy is going to be spared the impact of coronavirus – even countries with few cases will suffer from collapsing demand around the world.

Which nation will be hit hardest? It depends first on the extent of the outbreak locally and in key export and import markets. The success or failure of efforts by governments and central banks matters, as they can determine the pace of recovery afterwards.

JP Morgan’s economists publish forecasts for economies across the world every week.

They have slashed the outlook for growth in 2020 across the board. Every one of the more than 40 countries and regions tracked has lower forecast GDP growth now than at the start of January.

Here are the most severe falls.

Mexico
Mexico faces a collapse of 7pc in its GDP this year, the joint-worst in JP Morgan’s forecasts.

It is also the biggest faller – previously it was expected to grow by 1.5pc, so this is a reversal of 8.5 percentage points.

In part the reasons are geographic: Mexico is heavily reliant on the US, to its north. The world’s biggest economy is now the epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak, sending unemployment soaring and devastating cross-border trade and travel. The US itself is predicted to suffer a 5.3pc fall in GDP, making it the fourth worst-hit economy on this list.

That would be bad enough on its own, but Mexico has yet to feel the full force of the pandemic domestically - it faces one economic slump from the US crash, then a second later in the year when local activity is hit.

That terrible double whammy puts it at the top of the list of hard-hit nations.

Mexico is at the top of a very ugly league table
Bar chart with 10 bars.
Nowhere in the world gets off lightly according to JP Morgan's forecasts

South Africa
South Africa can also expect to shrink 7pc this year.

However its starting point was weaker, at 0.7pc anticipated growth for 2020, so the hit to its outlook is not quite as severe.

Around half of its economy is effectively closed through a lockdown, slashing GDP in the short term.

But it also faces a tough recovery. Weak national finances led Moody’s to cut its rating on South African debt to junk status last week, making it harder and more expensive for the government to borrow just as it needs to spend heavily to battle the crisis.

Economists at Citi expect a budget deficit of between 10pc and 12pc of GDP this year, a heavy burden for a troubled nation.


New Zealand
New Zealand began the year expecting a reasonably healthy 2.4pc expansion, so the virus lockdown immediately wiped out those prospects.

Add to that a 4.8pc recession and it comes in third in the rankings of hardest-hit economies, losing 7.2 percentage points.

It is very similar to near-neighbour Australia, which looks set to break its 28-year run without a recession, becoming the fifth worst affected nation.

Both economies have been powered in part by export growth in recent years, with New Zealand’s food highly valued around the world and Australia’s mining industry a key supplier of China – so both will be damaged by slumping demand from Asia.


Thailand
Skipping the aforementioned US and Australia, the next hardest-hit is Thailand.

Its projected 2.8pc expansion has become a 3.3pc contraction, a fall of 6.1 percentage points.

Thailand’s proximity to China and its popularity as a tourist destination make it especially vulnerable to a lockdown of global travel.

Almost 40 million visitors head to Thailand each year – double the number who went a decade ago, underlining the power of tourism in boosting the economy.

International travel limits and restrictions may be among the last measures lifted after the pandemic, and consumers may be reluctant to make long flights or visit distant countries so soon after an outbreak.


Spain
Spain and Italy are both set for near-identical 4pc recessions this year, but Spain counts as harder hit because it was previously expected to show the strongest growth this year.

Both have been devastated by the pandemic, which swept through swathes of their populations more quickly than other European nations.


Lengthy lockdowns are slashing production in the services-heavy economies, while their reliance on tourists is also going to devastate incomes through much of the year.

Distress over the lack of help on offer from elsewhere in the eurozone could also prolong the agony if the health crisis and recession become a political clash across the currency union.

They are at the forefront of a recession that is expected to lead to a 3.4pc fall in Eurozone GDP this year. Britain will not be spared either as it is in line for a contraction of 3.7pc."

Well that doesn't look like much fun. Let's hope we can rebound as quickly as possible.

Clearly bad, but but not 'Apocalypse Now'.

One hopes Rishi is putting a bit more planning into helping that recovery than his colleagues have to dealing with the immediate emergency.

Pross

surrey_commuter said:

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

Also here is a assessment from JP Morgan on which countries will be worst affects by the pandemic. Behind a paywall so have cut and pasted: overall it is not quite as apocalyptic as some other predictions.

Looks like the drop for UK and Eurozone is of a similar order of magnitude as the GFC, perhaps slightly less if my recollection of the GFC imact on GDP is accurate.

"No economy is going to be spared the impact of coronavirus – even countries with few cases will suffer from collapsing demand around the world.

Which nation will be hit hardest? It depends first on the extent of the outbreak locally and in key export and import markets. The success or failure of efforts by governments and central banks matters, as they can determine the pace of recovery afterwards.

JP Morgan’s economists publish forecasts for economies across the world every week.

They have slashed the outlook for growth in 2020 across the board. Every one of the more than 40 countries and regions tracked has lower forecast GDP growth now than at the start of January.

Here are the most severe falls.

Mexico
Mexico faces a collapse of 7pc in its GDP this year, the joint-worst in JP Morgan’s forecasts.

It is also the biggest faller – previously it was expected to grow by 1.5pc, so this is a reversal of 8.5 percentage points.

In part the reasons are geographic: Mexico is heavily reliant on the US, to its north. The world’s biggest economy is now the epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak, sending unemployment soaring and devastating cross-border trade and travel. The US itself is predicted to suffer a 5.3pc fall in GDP, making it the fourth worst-hit economy on this list.

That would be bad enough on its own, but Mexico has yet to feel the full force of the pandemic domestically - it faces one economic slump from the US crash, then a second later in the year when local activity is hit.

That terrible double whammy puts it at the top of the list of hard-hit nations.

Mexico is at the top of a very ugly league table
Bar chart with 10 bars.
Nowhere in the world gets off lightly according to JP Morgan's forecasts

South Africa
South Africa can also expect to shrink 7pc this year.

However its starting point was weaker, at 0.7pc anticipated growth for 2020, so the hit to its outlook is not quite as severe.

Around half of its economy is effectively closed through a lockdown, slashing GDP in the short term.

But it also faces a tough recovery. Weak national finances led Moody’s to cut its rating on South African debt to junk status last week, making it harder and more expensive for the government to borrow just as it needs to spend heavily to battle the crisis.

Economists at Citi expect a budget deficit of between 10pc and 12pc of GDP this year, a heavy burden for a troubled nation.


New Zealand
New Zealand began the year expecting a reasonably healthy 2.4pc expansion, so the virus lockdown immediately wiped out those prospects.

Add to that a 4.8pc recession and it comes in third in the rankings of hardest-hit economies, losing 7.2 percentage points.

It is very similar to near-neighbour Australia, which looks set to break its 28-year run without a recession, becoming the fifth worst affected nation.

Both economies have been powered in part by export growth in recent years, with New Zealand’s food highly valued around the world and Australia’s mining industry a key supplier of China – so both will be damaged by slumping demand from Asia.


Thailand
Skipping the aforementioned US and Australia, the next hardest-hit is Thailand.

Its projected 2.8pc expansion has become a 3.3pc contraction, a fall of 6.1 percentage points.

Thailand’s proximity to China and its popularity as a tourist destination make it especially vulnerable to a lockdown of global travel.

Almost 40 million visitors head to Thailand each year – double the number who went a decade ago, underlining the power of tourism in boosting the economy.

International travel limits and restrictions may be among the last measures lifted after the pandemic, and consumers may be reluctant to make long flights or visit distant countries so soon after an outbreak.


Spain
Spain and Italy are both set for near-identical 4pc recessions this year, but Spain counts as harder hit because it was previously expected to show the strongest growth this year.

Both have been devastated by the pandemic, which swept through swathes of their populations more quickly than other European nations.


Lengthy lockdowns are slashing production in the services-heavy economies, while their reliance on tourists is also going to devastate incomes through much of the year.

Distress over the lack of help on offer from elsewhere in the eurozone could also prolong the agony if the health crisis and recession become a political clash across the currency union.

They are at the forefront of a recession that is expected to lead to a 3.4pc fall in Eurozone GDP this year. Britain will not be spared either as it is in line for a contraction of 3.7pc."

Well that doesn't look like much fun. Let's hope we can rebound as quickly as possible.

If our economy only contracts by 3.4% then I will breathe a sigh of relief. It will be very regionalised as some industries are able to work from home than others.

They're often linked though, for example I can easily work from home and do so regularly but as we serve the construction / development sector their work is stopping. That said, I think the biggest impact on us will be how available finance still is after the lockdown finishes. The reason we go hit so hard in the GFC was that developers couldn't get funding and house buyers couldn't get funding so everything ground to halt.

surrey_commuter

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

Also here is a assessment from JP Morgan on which countries will be worst affects by the pandemic. Behind a paywall so have cut and pasted: overall it is not quite as apocalyptic as some other predictions.

Looks like the drop for UK and Eurozone is of a similar order of magnitude as the GFC, perhaps slightly less if my recollection of the GFC imact on GDP is accurate.

"No economy is going to be spared the impact of coronavirus – even countries with few cases will suffer from collapsing demand around the world.

Which nation will be hit hardest? It depends first on the extent of the outbreak locally and in key export and import markets. The success or failure of efforts by governments and central banks matters, as they can determine the pace of recovery afterwards.

JP Morgan’s economists publish forecasts for economies across the world every week.

They have slashed the outlook for growth in 2020 across the board. Every one of the more than 40 countries and regions tracked has lower forecast GDP growth now than at the start of January.

Here are the most severe falls.

Mexico
Mexico faces a collapse of 7pc in its GDP this year, the joint-worst in JP Morgan’s forecasts.

It is also the biggest faller – previously it was expected to grow by 1.5pc, so this is a reversal of 8.5 percentage points.

In part the reasons are geographic: Mexico is heavily reliant on the US, to its north. The world’s biggest economy is now the epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak, sending unemployment soaring and devastating cross-border trade and travel. The US itself is predicted to suffer a 5.3pc fall in GDP, making it the fourth worst-hit economy on this list.

That would be bad enough on its own, but Mexico has yet to feel the full force of the pandemic domestically - it faces one economic slump from the US crash, then a second later in the year when local activity is hit.

That terrible double whammy puts it at the top of the list of hard-hit nations.

Mexico is at the top of a very ugly league table
Bar chart with 10 bars.
Nowhere in the world gets off lightly according to JP Morgan's forecasts

South Africa
South Africa can also expect to shrink 7pc this year.

However its starting point was weaker, at 0.7pc anticipated growth for 2020, so the hit to its outlook is not quite as severe.

Around half of its economy is effectively closed through a lockdown, slashing GDP in the short term.

But it also faces a tough recovery. Weak national finances led Moody’s to cut its rating on South African debt to junk status last week, making it harder and more expensive for the government to borrow just as it needs to spend heavily to battle the crisis.

Economists at Citi expect a budget deficit of between 10pc and 12pc of GDP this year, a heavy burden for a troubled nation.


New Zealand
New Zealand began the year expecting a reasonably healthy 2.4pc expansion, so the virus lockdown immediately wiped out those prospects.

Add to that a 4.8pc recession and it comes in third in the rankings of hardest-hit economies, losing 7.2 percentage points.

It is very similar to near-neighbour Australia, which looks set to break its 28-year run without a recession, becoming the fifth worst affected nation.

Both economies have been powered in part by export growth in recent years, with New Zealand’s food highly valued around the world and Australia’s mining industry a key supplier of China – so both will be damaged by slumping demand from Asia.


Thailand
Skipping the aforementioned US and Australia, the next hardest-hit is Thailand.

Its projected 2.8pc expansion has become a 3.3pc contraction, a fall of 6.1 percentage points.

Thailand’s proximity to China and its popularity as a tourist destination make it especially vulnerable to a lockdown of global travel.

Almost 40 million visitors head to Thailand each year – double the number who went a decade ago, underlining the power of tourism in boosting the economy.

International travel limits and restrictions may be among the last measures lifted after the pandemic, and consumers may be reluctant to make long flights or visit distant countries so soon after an outbreak.


Spain
Spain and Italy are both set for near-identical 4pc recessions this year, but Spain counts as harder hit because it was previously expected to show the strongest growth this year.

Both have been devastated by the pandemic, which swept through swathes of their populations more quickly than other European nations.


Lengthy lockdowns are slashing production in the services-heavy economies, while their reliance on tourists is also going to devastate incomes through much of the year.

Distress over the lack of help on offer from elsewhere in the eurozone could also prolong the agony if the health crisis and recession become a political clash across the currency union.

They are at the forefront of a recession that is expected to lead to a 3.4pc fall in Eurozone GDP this year. Britain will not be spared either as it is in line for a contraction of 3.7pc."

Well that doesn't look like much fun. Let's hope we can rebound as quickly as possible.

Clearly bad, but but not 'Apocalypse Now'.

One hopes Rishi is putting a bit more planning into helping that recovery than his colleagues have to dealing with the immediate emergency.

With an apparent total lack of forward planning on the healthcare side it would be extraordinary if the Treasury put any effort into how their emergency measures will work.

focuszing723

"A new rapid diagnostic test for COVID-19, developed by a University of Cambridge spinout company and capable of diagnosing the infection in under 90 minutes, is being deployed at Cambridge hospitals, ahead of being launched in hospitals nationwide."

https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/rapid-covid-19-diagnostic-test-developed-by-cambridge-team-to-be-deployed-in-hospitals

I watched this on the news, very positive and trialling it at Cambridge hospital now.

TheBigBean

focuszing723 said:

"A new rapid diagnostic test for COVID-19, developed by a University of Cambridge spinout company and capable of diagnosing the infection in under 90 minutes, is being deployed at Cambridge hospitals, ahead of being launched in hospitals nationwide."

https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/rapid-covid-19-diagnostic-test-developed-by-cambridge-team-to-be-deployed-in-hospitals

I watched this on the news, very positive and trialling it at Cambridge hospital now.

I have wondered if a possible reason for the slow testing ramp up in the UK is that a better, more useful test is about to be made available.

kingstongraham

How many tests can each machine do at once?

rjsterry

surrey_commuter said:

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

Also here is a assessment from JP Morgan on which countries will be worst affects by the pandemic. Behind a paywall so have cut and pasted: overall it is not quite as apocalyptic as some other predictions.

Looks like the drop for UK and Eurozone is of a similar order of magnitude as the GFC, perhaps slightly less if my recollection of the GFC imact on GDP is accurate.

"No economy is going to be spared the impact of coronavirus – even countries with few cases will suffer from collapsing demand around the world.

Which nation will be hit hardest? It depends first on the extent of the outbreak locally and in key export and import markets. The success or failure of efforts by governments and central banks matters, as they can determine the pace of recovery afterwards.

JP Morgan’s economists publish forecasts for economies across the world every week.

They have slashed the outlook for growth in 2020 across the board. Every one of the more than 40 countries and regions tracked has lower forecast GDP growth now than at the start of January.

Here are the most severe falls.

Mexico
Mexico faces a collapse of 7pc in its GDP this year, the joint-worst in JP Morgan’s forecasts.

It is also the biggest faller – previously it was expected to grow by 1.5pc, so this is a reversal of 8.5 percentage points.

In part the reasons are geographic: Mexico is heavily reliant on the US, to its north. The world’s biggest economy is now the epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak, sending unemployment soaring and devastating cross-border trade and travel. The US itself is predicted to suffer a 5.3pc fall in GDP, making it the fourth worst-hit economy on this list.

That would be bad enough on its own, but Mexico has yet to feel the full force of the pandemic domestically - it faces one economic slump from the US crash, then a second later in the year when local activity is hit.

That terrible double whammy puts it at the top of the list of hard-hit nations.

Mexico is at the top of a very ugly league table
Bar chart with 10 bars.
Nowhere in the world gets off lightly according to JP Morgan's forecasts

South Africa
South Africa can also expect to shrink 7pc this year.

However its starting point was weaker, at 0.7pc anticipated growth for 2020, so the hit to its outlook is not quite as severe.

Around half of its economy is effectively closed through a lockdown, slashing GDP in the short term.

But it also faces a tough recovery. Weak national finances led Moody’s to cut its rating on South African debt to junk status last week, making it harder and more expensive for the government to borrow just as it needs to spend heavily to battle the crisis.

Economists at Citi expect a budget deficit of between 10pc and 12pc of GDP this year, a heavy burden for a troubled nation.


New Zealand
New Zealand began the year expecting a reasonably healthy 2.4pc expansion, so the virus lockdown immediately wiped out those prospects.

Add to that a 4.8pc recession and it comes in third in the rankings of hardest-hit economies, losing 7.2 percentage points.

It is very similar to near-neighbour Australia, which looks set to break its 28-year run without a recession, becoming the fifth worst affected nation.

Both economies have been powered in part by export growth in recent years, with New Zealand’s food highly valued around the world and Australia’s mining industry a key supplier of China – so both will be damaged by slumping demand from Asia.


Thailand
Skipping the aforementioned US and Australia, the next hardest-hit is Thailand.

Its projected 2.8pc expansion has become a 3.3pc contraction, a fall of 6.1 percentage points.

Thailand’s proximity to China and its popularity as a tourist destination make it especially vulnerable to a lockdown of global travel.

Almost 40 million visitors head to Thailand each year – double the number who went a decade ago, underlining the power of tourism in boosting the economy.

International travel limits and restrictions may be among the last measures lifted after the pandemic, and consumers may be reluctant to make long flights or visit distant countries so soon after an outbreak.


Spain
Spain and Italy are both set for near-identical 4pc recessions this year, but Spain counts as harder hit because it was previously expected to show the strongest growth this year.

Both have been devastated by the pandemic, which swept through swathes of their populations more quickly than other European nations.


Lengthy lockdowns are slashing production in the services-heavy economies, while their reliance on tourists is also going to devastate incomes through much of the year.

Distress over the lack of help on offer from elsewhere in the eurozone could also prolong the agony if the health crisis and recession become a political clash across the currency union.

They are at the forefront of a recession that is expected to lead to a 3.4pc fall in Eurozone GDP this year. Britain will not be spared either as it is in line for a contraction of 3.7pc."

Well that doesn't look like much fun. Let's hope we can rebound as quickly as possible.

Clearly bad, but but not 'Apocalypse Now'.

One hopes Rishi is putting a bit more planning into helping that recovery than his colleagues have to dealing with the immediate emergency.

With an apparent total lack of forward planning on the healthcare side it would be extraordinary if the Treasury put any effort into how their emergency measures will work.

I think they planned. They just leant too much on the modellers and behavioural science side and not enough on the public health side, so planned for a course of action that became untenable as the number hospitalised grew faster than they expected.

TheBigBean

tailwindhome said:

Stevo_666 said:

Got some feedback from the 'front line' - a mate of mine is a NHS consultant specialising in respiratory illnesses and has just spent 10 days on the COVID-19 section of the large London hospital where he works. Here's what he said when asked how he was doing (as we hadn't heard from him in a while):

"It's OK I am WFH today having done 10 days on the spin. It has been grim as he death rate has doubled from normal but my hospital has coped quite well. The media reports are always slightly behind what is happening. So although deaths and cases are rising like the ripple effect of a stone dropped in a pond nationally I think London may be settling. I'm just not sure and await another huge surge in next week that is the horrible uncertainty of it all.

I think the lock down is working though and will kill the epidemic and has probably save many lives. Given all the dreadful politics in recent times it has been gratifying to see the country pull together and the NHS rise to the challenge - the British spirit is still there."

And all we're being asked to do is stay at home and watch TV for a bit.
It's not really a lot being asked off *most* of us.

Sure, some are having a good lockdown with their feet up and TVs on. Others scarcely have time to sleep between childcare, companies collapsing, financial ruin etc.

focuszing723

TheBigBean said:

focuszing723 said:

"A new rapid diagnostic test for COVID-19, developed by a University of Cambridge spinout company and capable of diagnosing the infection in under 90 minutes, is being deployed at Cambridge hospitals, ahead of being launched in hospitals nationwide."

https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/rapid-covid-19-diagnostic-test-developed-by-cambridge-team-to-be-deployed-in-hospitals

I watched this on the news, very positive and trialling it at Cambridge hospital now.

I have wondered if a possible reason for the slow testing ramp up in the UK is that a better, more useful test is about to be made available.

Yes, that's a good point. They can also check first hand to make sure the tests actually work. Spain had to send some back to China!

rjsterry

TheBigBean said:

focuszing723 said:

"A new rapid diagnostic test for COVID-19, developed by a University of Cambridge spinout company and capable of diagnosing the infection in under 90 minutes, is being deployed at Cambridge hospitals, ahead of being launched in hospitals nationwide."

https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/rapid-covid-19-diagnostic-test-developed-by-cambridge-team-to-be-deployed-in-hospitals

I watched this on the news, very positive and trialling it at Cambridge hospital now.

I have wondered if a possible reason for the slow testing ramp up in the UK is that a better, more useful test is about to be made available.

I think that's being rather generous.

bompington

TheBigBean said:

I have wondered if a possible reason for the slow testing ramp up in the UK is that a better, more useful test is about to be made available.

Dr Bomp tells me that they don't really trust the current tests as they have a pretty large number of false negatives. If we are testing everyone to see if they're safe to work and 1 in 5 (it's at least that) of the people you test get told they don't have it when they actually do, how's that going to affect transmission?

A foolproof test that quickly and accurately determines whether someone is a) clear, b) infected, or c) has antibodies and is now safe, that would be a gamechanger: I'm not sure if that is the case with any of the new tests (neither's she) but it might be.

rick_chasey

FWIW forecasts are all over the place. For Q2 capital economics has U.K. at -15% so i would suggest no one knows how bad it’ll be other than *really bad*

TheBigBean

rjsterry said:

TheBigBean said:

focuszing723 said:

"A new rapid diagnostic test for COVID-19, developed by a University of Cambridge spinout company and capable of diagnosing the infection in under 90 minutes, is being deployed at Cambridge hospitals, ahead of being launched in hospitals nationwide."

https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/rapid-covid-19-diagnostic-test-developed-by-cambridge-team-to-be-deployed-in-hospitals

I watched this on the news, very positive and trialling it at Cambridge hospital now.

I have wondered if a possible reason for the slow testing ramp up in the UK is that a better, more useful test is about to be made available.

I think that's being rather generous.

Perhaps, but based on evidence. The snazzy new test that a poster on this thread has seen is clearly better than the current ones.

TheBigBean

bompington said:

TheBigBean said:

I have wondered if a possible reason for the slow testing ramp up in the UK is that a better, more useful test is about to be made available.

Dr Bomp tells me that they don't really trust the current tests as they have a pretty large number of false negatives. If we are testing everyone to see if they're safe to work and 1 in 5 (it's at least that) of the people you test get told they don't have it when they actually do, how's that going to affect transmission?

A foolproof test that quickly and accurately determines whether someone is a) clear, b) infected, or c) has antibodies and is now safe, that would be a gamechanger: I'm not sure if that is the case with any of the new tests (neither's she) but it might be.

I don't know what the medical term for it is, but if we compare it to doping, one of the key questions would be how long is a patient glowing for with the current test.