The big Coronavirus thread
Comments
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Your response just demonstrates that you are only thinking about deaths from C19 in the short erm and not long term impacts and deathskingstongraham said:
Do you not see that the current response is an attempt to be pragmatic?coopster_the_1st said:
We are still looking at solutions through an emotional lens. Policy decision is being made because of this view.kingstongraham said:
Do you think that there is a simple solution to the problem you are posing?coopster_the_1st said:
Again, we risk and are making short term panic decisions that will damage and kill more in the longer term.kingstongraham said:
You'll have to explain to me, and I don't think I'm stupid.coopster_the_1st said:
Now seems to be a good time to repost this as some are too stupid to understand what is happeningcoopster_the_1st said:
We would be able to move forward with a solution to this once we are past the 'national outrage' that 10's of thousands of people are going to die.kingstongraham said:
It was Italy plus 15 days, now 16 because the UK put in a short day.coopster_the_1st said:
The people who were using the chart to say the UK is 14 days behind Italy are also saying from the same chart that Germany is 5 days behind the UKPross said:
I'm not sure what Germany are doing but the last comparison graph I saw was suggesting it wasn't working any better than our approach. here are very few countries whose graph are significantly better than ours (Japan and South Korea being the obvious exceptions though there was some talk that Japan were massaging the figures to try to avoid the Olympics getting postponed). Yes, we had the benefit of two weeks learning from Italy that we could have made better use of and yes the Government seem to be royally censored up the distribution of PPE and testing kits but I'm not seeing many other countries delivering better outcomes.rick_chasey said:
Herd immunity is a short-hand for doing SFA, not to be taken literally.haydenm said:Are you suggesting we remove all restrictions and achieve herd immunity? Because my point is that looks like the general approach we are going for, just with a ceiling on the transmission rate to try and keep the NHS operating in the meantime. A slight relaxing of the rules in a month or two with the use of technology to help people know if they are likely to get sick could happen. Just because they are trying to slow the spread doesn't mean we aren't going for some sort of herd immunity surely?
It is the opposite approach to what the Koreans and the Germans are doing.
Last few equivalent days' totals:
Italy: 1016, 1266, 1441, 1809
UK: 1019, 1228, 1408, 1789
If the UK numbers keep following the same path, we're over 10,000 in 11 days from today. Our lockdown went in a couple of days earlier in the spread than Italy's, so hopefully that has an effect.
This is the reality and where I have advocated being pragmatic about what is going to happen.
If we accept that this is going to kill over 10,000 people, why is it a logical and pragmatic conclusion that we need to accept it is going to kill 10s of thousands more when there is something we can do about it?
As we can see from stupids on here (probably god botherers, if not, these people are part of the problem as they only see short term) some still think we can limit this to 10k deaths or close to this.
There is no simple solution as you know it so stop being silly by raising that question but a pragmatic response rather than an emotional one will give a better overall outcome to this.
There's a limited amount of medical resources, modelling has been done as to how best to use that and not overwhelm it, we aren't completely locked down. Even if we do get further restrictions, it is all about pragmatism. Everyone realises that the time when this could be avoided is long in the past now.
The difficult next step is how to move on without causing more problems that result in more unnecessary deaths - the answer has to be pragmatic - testing to inform when that can be done, how best to increase the resources available to the health service, and what level of interaction will be safe enough to not overwhelm the increased health service given the knowledge of the spread of the disease (through testing).
You seem to think "pragmatic" automatically equals "hugely more deaths than necessary". I disagree.0 -
I think political considerations are already influencing policy.DeVlaeminck said:Be interesting to see if the govt react to the turning of the tide in terms of support for their strategy. As well as economic and public health considerations will political ones influence policy?
It's very hard to resist the external political pressures of other country government when your policy risks showing them up to have acted wrong.0 -
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I can see it's more complex than an either/or, and that avoiding a severe acute health emergency is good for the long term.coopster_the_1st said:
Your response just demonstrates that you are only thinking about deaths from C19 in the short erm and not long term impacts and deathskingstongraham said:
Do you not see that the current response is an attempt to be pragmatic?coopster_the_1st said:
We are still looking at solutions through an emotional lens. Policy decision is being made because of this view.kingstongraham said:
Do you think that there is a simple solution to the problem you are posing?coopster_the_1st said:
Again, we risk and are making short term panic decisions that will damage and kill more in the longer term.kingstongraham said:
You'll have to explain to me, and I don't think I'm stupid.coopster_the_1st said:
Now seems to be a good time to repost this as some are too stupid to understand what is happeningcoopster_the_1st said:
We would be able to move forward with a solution to this once we are past the 'national outrage' that 10's of thousands of people are going to die.kingstongraham said:
It was Italy plus 15 days, now 16 because the UK put in a short day.coopster_the_1st said:
The people who were using the chart to say the UK is 14 days behind Italy are also saying from the same chart that Germany is 5 days behind the UKPross said:
I'm not sure what Germany are doing but the last comparison graph I saw was suggesting it wasn't working any better than our approach. here are very few countries whose graph are significantly better than ours (Japan and South Korea being the obvious exceptions though there was some talk that Japan were massaging the figures to try to avoid the Olympics getting postponed). Yes, we had the benefit of two weeks learning from Italy that we could have made better use of and yes the Government seem to be royally censored up the distribution of PPE and testing kits but I'm not seeing many other countries delivering better outcomes.rick_chasey said:
Herd immunity is a short-hand for doing SFA, not to be taken literally.haydenm said:Are you suggesting we remove all restrictions and achieve herd immunity? Because my point is that looks like the general approach we are going for, just with a ceiling on the transmission rate to try and keep the NHS operating in the meantime. A slight relaxing of the rules in a month or two with the use of technology to help people know if they are likely to get sick could happen. Just because they are trying to slow the spread doesn't mean we aren't going for some sort of herd immunity surely?
It is the opposite approach to what the Koreans and the Germans are doing.
Last few equivalent days' totals:
Italy: 1016, 1266, 1441, 1809
UK: 1019, 1228, 1408, 1789
If the UK numbers keep following the same path, we're over 10,000 in 11 days from today. Our lockdown went in a couple of days earlier in the spread than Italy's, so hopefully that has an effect.
This is the reality and where I have advocated being pragmatic about what is going to happen.
If we accept that this is going to kill over 10,000 people, why is it a logical and pragmatic conclusion that we need to accept it is going to kill 10s of thousands more when there is something we can do about it?
As we can see from stupids on here (probably god botherers, if not, these people are part of the problem as they only see short term) some still think we can limit this to 10k deaths or close to this.
There is no simple solution as you know it so stop being silly by raising that question but a pragmatic response rather than an emotional one will give a better overall outcome to this.
There's a limited amount of medical resources, modelling has been done as to how best to use that and not overwhelm it, we aren't completely locked down. Even if we do get further restrictions, it is all about pragmatism. Everyone realises that the time when this could be avoided is long in the past now.
The difficult next step is how to move on without causing more problems that result in more unnecessary deaths - the answer has to be pragmatic - testing to inform when that can be done, how best to increase the resources available to the health service, and what level of interaction will be safe enough to not overwhelm the increased health service given the knowledge of the spread of the disease (through testing).
You seem to think "pragmatic" automatically equals "hugely more deaths than necessary". I disagree.
But feel free to show me something that convinces me that minimising deaths and hospitalisations due to coronavirus isn't the right priority at the moment.
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Both of them do look a bit weird as they have a day or two where they look like they're starting to flatten out and then they rise more sharply. Others appear smoother. But yes, we need to hope that the lockdown effects come in soon as the current trajectory is worrying.rick_chasey said:
It's the shape of the curve and the UK and US curve is still not rounding off.Pross said:
That seems to suggest that no-one other than South Korea has responded well including Germany whose death rate isn't vastly different to ours yet people keep saying we should be following their example.rick_chasey said:
Don't get me wrong, we need to test our key workers to reduce the time they are out of action but the biggest result of German testing seems to be to bring down their mortality rate.0 -
We are not doing this.kingstongraham said:But feel free to show me something that convinces me that minimising deaths and hospitalisations due to coronavirus isn't the right priority at the moment.
If we were really serious about minimising deaths we would move all the vulnerable and old into designated quanrantined areas (take over Universities, Holiday camps, etc) and keep them there away from the risks of society until they can be vaccinated.
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I believe part of the issue boils down to how you decide whether a person has died of, or with, the disease. Then from tidbits I have seen, our death count was only including hospital deaths until recently, this has been changed meaning our figures show a bit of a bump.Pross said:
Both of them do look a bit weird as they have a day or two where they look like they're starting to flatten out and then they rise more sharply. Others appear smoother. But yes, we need to hope that the lockdown effects come in soon as the current trajectory is worrying.rick_chasey said:
It's the shape of the curve and the UK and US curve is still not rounding off.Pross said:
That seems to suggest that no-one other than South Korea has responded well including Germany whose death rate isn't vastly different to ours yet people keep saying we should be following their example.rick_chasey said:
Don't get me wrong, we need to test our key workers to reduce the time they are out of action but the biggest result of German testing seems to be to bring down their mortality rate.
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I HAD THAT!!tailwindhome said:
Today she is complaining of a strong metallic taste in her mouth.focuszing723 said:
How is her sense of smell and taste?tailwindhome said:Yeah, so I think the virus may have made it's way into our household.
Mrs TWH complaining 2 days ago of a general feeling of fatigue. Nothing really more than that. No temperature. Felt like a hangover. The occasional cough.
Yesterday she felt fine, then last night the coughing became more frequent and she feels like censored today. Up and about, working from home but feeling ropey.
So we have to assume it is CV and the key thing for us is to delay the spread around the house and self isolate to keep it within the house.
I thought taste and smell had to go completely but I didn't have that I just felt like I was chewing iron filings for a week...
(Sorry, that's weirdly a relief - Get Well Soon Mrs Home.)We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
- @ddraver0 -
Why not use cruise ships?coopster_the_1st said:
We are not doing this.kingstongraham said:But feel free to show me something that convinces me that minimising deaths and hospitalisations due to coronavirus isn't the right priority at the moment.
If we were really serious about minimising deaths we would move all the vulnerable and old into designated quanrantined areas (take over Universities, Holiday camps, etc) and keep them there away from the risks of society until they can be vaccinated.1 -
Locked in "Holiday camps" for months. Yeah, I can see that my 87-year-old mum would enjoy that. Is that your 'Modest Proposal'? Shall we give people over a certain age some sort of 'mark' so we can identify them easily?0
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This was reported yesterday quite carefully as "As of 5pm on 31 March, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 2,352 have sadly died."Jeremy.89 said:
I believe part of the issue boils down to how you decide whether a person has died of, or with, the disease. Then from tidbits I have seen, our death count was only including hospital deaths until recently, this has been changed meaning our figures show a bit of a bump.Pross said:
Both of them do look a bit weird as they have a day or two where they look like they're starting to flatten out and then they rise more sharply. Others appear smoother. But yes, we need to hope that the lockdown effects come in soon as the current trajectory is worrying.rick_chasey said:
It's the shape of the curve and the UK and US curve is still not rounding off.Pross said:
That seems to suggest that no-one other than South Korea has responded well including Germany whose death rate isn't vastly different to ours yet people keep saying we should be following their example.rick_chasey said:
Don't get me wrong, we need to test our key workers to reduce the time they are out of action but the biggest result of German testing seems to be to bring down their mortality rate.
So unfortunately, I don't think that is reponsible for the bump.
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Sounds like concentration camps. With the lack of testing we have you'd have created the perfect place for the virus to devastate these areas.coopster_the_1st said:
We are not doing this.kingstongraham said:But feel free to show me something that convinces me that minimising deaths and hospitalisations due to coronavirus isn't the right priority at the moment.
If we were really serious about minimising deaths we would move all the vulnerable and old into designated quanrantined areas (take over Universities, Holiday camps, etc) and keep them there away from the risks of society until they can be vaccinated.
Perhaps you'll rethink when the virus starts to affect your family and friends.0 -
ddraver said:
Just scroll on past like an Andrew Lilco column...
I used to have one or two people on 'foe' so I didn't have the temptation.0 -
😄😄coopster_the_1st said:
We are not doing this.kingstongraham said:But feel free to show me something that convinces me that minimising deaths and hospitalisations due to coronavirus isn't the right priority at the moment.
If we were really serious about minimising deaths we would move all the vulnerable and old into designated quanrantined areas (take over Universities, Holiday camps, etc) and keep them there away from the risks of society until they can be vaccinated.
So moving millions of vulnerable people around the country and then locking them all up together is your plan to protect them from a highly communicable disease? How many holiday camps do you think there are?1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
There are 12 million people in the UK aged 65 or over.coopster_the_1st said:
We are not doing this.kingstongraham said:But feel free to show me something that convinces me that minimising deaths and hospitalisations due to coronavirus isn't the right priority at the moment.
If we were really serious about minimising deaths we would move all the vulnerable and old into designated quanrantined areas (take over Universities, Holiday camps, etc) and keep them there away from the risks of society until they can be vaccinated.
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
Why let facts like that get in the way of a, er, 'plan'?tailwindhome said:
There are 12 million people in the UK aged 65 or over.coopster_the_1st said:
We are not doing this.kingstongraham said:But feel free to show me something that convinces me that minimising deaths and hospitalisations due to coronavirus isn't the right priority at the moment.
If we were really serious about minimising deaths we would move all the vulnerable and old into designated quanrantined areas (take over Universities, Holiday camps, etc) and keep them there away from the risks of society until they can be vaccinated.0 -
A Dr (Dr Clare Gerada if you want to search) who contract Covid19 mentioned about this too. She seemed to get a metallic taste when it was passing. It sounds like it's a symptom of a sinus infection too.ddraver said:
I HAD THAT!!tailwindhome said:
Today she is complaining of a strong metallic taste in her mouth.focuszing723 said:
How is her sense of smell and taste?tailwindhome said:Yeah, so I think the virus may have made it's way into our household.
Mrs TWH complaining 2 days ago of a general feeling of fatigue. Nothing really more than that. No temperature. Felt like a hangover. The occasional cough.
Yesterday she felt fine, then last night the coughing became more frequent and she feels like censored today. Up and about, working from home but feeling ropey.
So we have to assume it is CV and the key thing for us is to delay the spread around the house and self isolate to keep it within the house.
I thought taste and smell had to go completely but I didn't have that I just felt like I was chewing iron filings for a week...
(Sorry, that's weirdly a relief - Get Well Soon Mrs Home.)
Yeah, look after yourselves. At-least you will be immune afterwards.0 -
Some positive news on vaccine development:
https://bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-52130402"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
This did not get the recognition it deservedkingstongraham said:
Why not use cruise ships?coopster_the_1st said:
We are not doing this.kingstongraham said:But feel free to show me something that convinces me that minimising deaths and hospitalisations due to coronavirus isn't the right priority at the moment.
If we were really serious about minimising deaths we would move all the vulnerable and old into designated quanrantined areas (take over Universities, Holiday camps, etc) and keep them there away from the risks of society until they can be vaccinated.0 -
What on earth makes you think he has any friends?fenix said:
Sounds like concentration camps. With the lack of testing we have you'd have created the perfect place for the virus to devastate these areas.coopster_the_1st said:
We are not doing this.kingstongraham said:But feel free to show me something that convinces me that minimising deaths and hospitalisations due to coronavirus isn't the right priority at the moment.
If we were really serious about minimising deaths we would move all the vulnerable and old into designated quanrantined areas (take over Universities, Holiday camps, etc) and keep them there away from the risks of society until they can be vaccinated.
Perhaps you'll rethink when the virus starts to affect your family and friends.
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briantrumpet said:ddraver said:
Just scroll on past like an Andrew Lilco column...
I used to have one or two people on 'foe' so I didn't have the temptation.
Once you come out the other side you can learn to respect him. Rehash some I’ll thought out rubbish from a source for muppets post it on here and go over the allotment for two hours, come back stoke the fire and settle down for lunch. For minimal effort he gets a dozen people frothing with rage0 -
Got some feedback from the 'front line' - a mate of mine is a NHS consultant specialising in respiratory illnesses and has just spent 10 days on the COVID-19 section of the large London hospital where he works. Here's what he said when asked how he was doing (as we hadn't heard from him in a while):
"It's OK I am WFH today having done 10 days on the spin. It has been grim as the death rate has doubled from normal but my hospital has coped quite well. The media reports are always slightly behind what is happening. So although deaths and cases are rising like the ripple effect of a stone dropped in a pond nationally I think London may be settling. I'm just not sure and await another huge surge in next week that is the horrible uncertainty of it all.
I think the lock down is working though and will kill the epidemic and has probably save many lives. Given all the dreadful politics in recent times it has been gratifying to see the country pull together and the NHS rise to the challenge - the British spirit is still there.""I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Stevo_666 said:
Got some feedback from the 'front line' - a mate of mine is a NHS consultant specialising in respiratory illnesses and has just spent 10 days on the COVID-19 section of the large London hospital where he works. Here's what he said when asked how he was doing (as we hadn't heard from him in a while):
"It's OK I am WFH today having done 10 days on the spin. It has been grim as he death rate has doubled from normal but my hospital has coped quite well. The media reports are always slightly behind what is happening. So although deaths and cases are rising like the ripple effect of a stone dropped in a pond nationally I think London may be settling. I'm just not sure and await another huge surge in next week that is the horrible uncertainty of it all.
I think the lock down is working though and will kill the epidemic and has probably save many lives. Given all the dreadful politics in recent times it has been gratifying to see the country pull together and the NHS rise to the challenge - the British spirit is still there."
Fingers crossed.0 -
I think the word is pity. I think most are laughing not frothing.surrey_commuter said:briantrumpet said:ddraver said:Just scroll on past like an Andrew Lilco column...
I used to have one or two people on 'foe' so I didn't have the temptation.
Once you come out the other side you can learn to respect him. Rehash some I’ll thought out rubbish from a source for muppets post it on here and go over the allotment for two hours, come back stoke the fire and settle down for lunch. For minimal effort he gets a dozen people frothing with rage1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
Could put a nice sign over the entrance along the lines of 'Work Sets You Free'.briantrumpet said:Locked in "Holiday camps" for months. Yeah, I can see that my 87-year-old mum would enjoy that. Is that your 'Modest Proposal'? Shall we give people over a certain age some sort of 'mark' so we can identify them easily?
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Staffed by whom FFS?surrey_commuter said:
This did not get the recognition it deservedkingstongraham said:
Why not use cruise ships?coopster_the_1st said:
We are not doing this.kingstongraham said:But feel free to show me something that convinces me that minimising deaths and hospitalisations due to coronavirus isn't the right priority at the moment.
If we were really serious about minimising deaths we would move all the vulnerable and old into designated quanrantined areas (take over Universities, Holiday camps, etc) and keep them there away from the risks of society until they can be vaccinated.
Open One+ BMC TE29 Seven 622SL On One Scandal Cervelo RS0 -
Robots.Wheelspinner said:
Staffed by whom FFS?surrey_commuter said:
This did not get the recognition it deservedkingstongraham said:
Why not use cruise ships?coopster_the_1st said:
We are not doing this.kingstongraham said:But feel free to show me something that convinces me that minimising deaths and hospitalisations due to coronavirus isn't the right priority at the moment.
If we were really serious about minimising deaths we would move all the vulnerable and old into designated quanrantined areas (take over Universities, Holiday camps, etc) and keep them there away from the risks of society until they can be vaccinated.0 -
I think it was sarcasm (based on the number of elderly people on cruises who were among the first victims) taking a dig at the idea that sticking the vulnerable people in one location will keep them safe.Wheelspinner said:
Staffed by whom FFS?surrey_commuter said:
This did not get the recognition it deservedkingstongraham said:
Why not use cruise ships?coopster_the_1st said:
We are not doing this.kingstongraham said:But feel free to show me something that convinces me that minimising deaths and hospitalisations due to coronavirus isn't the right priority at the moment.
If we were really serious about minimising deaths we would move all the vulnerable and old into designated quanrantined areas (take over Universities, Holiday camps, etc) and keep them there away from the risks of society until they can be vaccinated.1
