The big Coronavirus thread
Comments
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When we get to the position that a decent proportion of hospital staff are in intensive care themselves because there wasn’t enough protective kit the denials and evasion in the daily briefings will take on a rather more sinister edge.0
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Now seems to be a good time to repost this as some are too stupid to understand what is happeningcoopster_the_1st said:
We would be able to move forward with a solution to this once we are past the 'national outrage' that 10's of thousands of people are going to die.kingstongraham said:
It was Italy plus 15 days, now 16 because the UK put in a short day.coopster_the_1st said:
The people who were using the chart to say the UK is 14 days behind Italy are also saying from the same chart that Germany is 5 days behind the UKPross said:
I'm not sure what Germany are doing but the last comparison graph I saw was suggesting it wasn't working any better than our approach. here are very few countries whose graph are significantly better than ours (Japan and South Korea being the obvious exceptions though there was some talk that Japan were massaging the figures to try to avoid the Olympics getting postponed). Yes, we had the benefit of two weeks learning from Italy that we could have made better use of and yes the Government seem to be royally censored up the distribution of PPE and testing kits but I'm not seeing many other countries delivering better outcomes.rick_chasey said:
Herd immunity is a short-hand for doing SFA, not to be taken literally.haydenm said:Are you suggesting we remove all restrictions and achieve herd immunity? Because my point is that looks like the general approach we are going for, just with a ceiling on the transmission rate to try and keep the NHS operating in the meantime. A slight relaxing of the rules in a month or two with the use of technology to help people know if they are likely to get sick could happen. Just because they are trying to slow the spread doesn't mean we aren't going for some sort of herd immunity surely?
It is the opposite approach to what the Koreans and the Germans are doing.
Last few equivalent days' totals:
Italy: 1016, 1266, 1441, 1809
UK: 1019, 1228, 1408, 1789
If the UK numbers keep following the same path, we're over 10,000 in 11 days from today. Our lockdown went in a couple of days earlier in the spread than Italy's, so hopefully that has an effect.
This is the reality and where I have advocated being pragmatic about what is going to happen.0 -
I wonder how much time they waste trying to sort out the problems with messaging.rick_chasey said:When we get to the position that a decent proportion of hospital staff are in intensive care themselves because there wasn’t enough protective kit the denials and evasion in the daily briefings will take on a rather more sinister edge.
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Today she is complaining of a strong metallic taste in her mouth.focuszing723 said:
How is her sense of smell and taste?tailwindhome said:Yeah, so I think the virus may have made it's way into our household.
Mrs TWH complaining 2 days ago of a general feeling of fatigue. Nothing really more than that. No temperature. Felt like a hangover. The occasional cough.
Yesterday she felt fine, then last night the coughing became more frequent and she feels like censored today. Up and about, working from home but feeling ropey.
So we have to assume it is CV and the key thing for us is to delay the spread around the house and self isolate to keep it within the house.“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
Hope she gets well soon, TWH.tailwindhome said:
Today she is complaining of a strong metallic taste in her mouth.focuszing723 said:
How is her sense of smell and taste?tailwindhome said:Yeah, so I think the virus may have made it's way into our household.
Mrs TWH complaining 2 days ago of a general feeling of fatigue. Nothing really more than that. No temperature. Felt like a hangover. The occasional cough.
Yesterday she felt fine, then last night the coughing became more frequent and she feels like censored today. Up and about, working from home but feeling ropey.
So we have to assume it is CV and the key thing for us is to delay the spread around the house and self isolate to keep it within the house.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
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You'll have to explain to me, and I don't think I'm stupid.coopster_the_1st said:
Now seems to be a good time to repost this as some are too stupid to understand what is happeningcoopster_the_1st said:
We would be able to move forward with a solution to this once we are past the 'national outrage' that 10's of thousands of people are going to die.kingstongraham said:
It was Italy plus 15 days, now 16 because the UK put in a short day.coopster_the_1st said:
The people who were using the chart to say the UK is 14 days behind Italy are also saying from the same chart that Germany is 5 days behind the UKPross said:
I'm not sure what Germany are doing but the last comparison graph I saw was suggesting it wasn't working any better than our approach. here are very few countries whose graph are significantly better than ours (Japan and South Korea being the obvious exceptions though there was some talk that Japan were massaging the figures to try to avoid the Olympics getting postponed). Yes, we had the benefit of two weeks learning from Italy that we could have made better use of and yes the Government seem to be royally censored up the distribution of PPE and testing kits but I'm not seeing many other countries delivering better outcomes.rick_chasey said:
Herd immunity is a short-hand for doing SFA, not to be taken literally.haydenm said:Are you suggesting we remove all restrictions and achieve herd immunity? Because my point is that looks like the general approach we are going for, just with a ceiling on the transmission rate to try and keep the NHS operating in the meantime. A slight relaxing of the rules in a month or two with the use of technology to help people know if they are likely to get sick could happen. Just because they are trying to slow the spread doesn't mean we aren't going for some sort of herd immunity surely?
It is the opposite approach to what the Koreans and the Germans are doing.
Last few equivalent days' totals:
Italy: 1016, 1266, 1441, 1809
UK: 1019, 1228, 1408, 1789
If the UK numbers keep following the same path, we're over 10,000 in 11 days from today. Our lockdown went in a couple of days earlier in the spread than Italy's, so hopefully that has an effect.
This is the reality and where I have advocated being pragmatic about what is going to happen.
If we accept that this is going to kill over 10,000 people, why is it a logical and pragmatic conclusion that we need to accept it is going to kill 10s of thousands more when there is something we can do about it?0 -
Feeling ropey and tired but able to get up and do some work from home.rick_chasey said:She ok so far?
By my reckoning this day 5 since symptoms started.“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
If it's an option at all, tell her to go back to bed - for her to recover and so you can try to avoid catching it yourself so you can help her. (And if you get it, you want her to be able to help you.)
All the best.1 -
As a teenager I remember reading an Asimov (= old-school sci-fi for the uninitiated) short story called "The Winnowing". It must have made an impression on me because it's always stayed with me.
It went something like this.
In a time of overpopulation and famine, an eminent scientist is leant on by the government to develop a poison that will be used to lace food aid to third world countries, causing mass random deaths. He goes along with the scheme but, when he has a meeting with the bigwigs at the "World Food Organisation", he laces the sandwiches with the poison, so that they can experience for themselves the consequences of the random deaths it will cause.
For some strange reason, I keep thinking of this story when I read Coopster's posts in this thread.0 -
That seems to suggest that no-one other than South Korea has responded well including Germany whose death rate isn't vastly different to ours yet people keep saying we should be following their example.rick_chasey said:
Don't get me wrong, we need to test our key workers to reduce the time they are out of action but the biggest result of German testing seems to be to bring down their mortality rate.0 -
The stupid among us see preventing 10s of thousands of deaths as the objective.coopster_the_1st said:
Now seems to be a good time to repost this as some are too stupid to understand what is happeningcoopster_the_1st said:
We would be able to move forward with a solution to this once we are past the 'national outrage' that 10's of thousands of people are going to die.kingstongraham said:
It was Italy plus 15 days, now 16 because the UK put in a short day.coopster_the_1st said:
The people who were using the chart to say the UK is 14 days behind Italy are also saying from the same chart that Germany is 5 days behind the UKPross said:
I'm not sure what Germany are doing but the last comparison graph I saw was suggesting it wasn't working any better than our approach. here are very few countries whose graph are significantly better than ours (Japan and South Korea being the obvious exceptions though there was some talk that Japan were massaging the figures to try to avoid the Olympics getting postponed). Yes, we had the benefit of two weeks learning from Italy that we could have made better use of and yes the Government seem to be royally censored up the distribution of PPE and testing kits but I'm not seeing many other countries delivering better outcomes.rick_chasey said:
Herd immunity is a short-hand for doing SFA, not to be taken literally.haydenm said:Are you suggesting we remove all restrictions and achieve herd immunity? Because my point is that looks like the general approach we are going for, just with a ceiling on the transmission rate to try and keep the NHS operating in the meantime. A slight relaxing of the rules in a month or two with the use of technology to help people know if they are likely to get sick could happen. Just because they are trying to slow the spread doesn't mean we aren't going for some sort of herd immunity surely?
It is the opposite approach to what the Koreans and the Germans are doing.
Last few equivalent days' totals:
Italy: 1016, 1266, 1441, 1809
UK: 1019, 1228, 1408, 1789
If the UK numbers keep following the same path, we're over 10,000 in 11 days from today. Our lockdown went in a couple of days earlier in the spread than Italy's, so hopefully that has an effect.
This is the reality and where I have advocated being pragmatic about what is going to happen.
Sorry about that.
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
Why isn’t Holland on that chartPross said:
That seems to suggest that no-one other than South Korea has responded well including Germany whose death rate isn't vastly different to ours yet people keep saying we should be following their example.rick_chasey said:
Don't get me wrong, we need to test our key workers to reduce the time they are out of action but the biggest result of German testing seems to be to bring down their mortality rate.0 -
Thanks.kingstongraham said:If it's an option at all, tell her to go back to bed - for her to recover and so you can try to avoid catching it yourself so you can help her. (And if you get it, you want her to be able to help you.)
All the best.
She hasn't left the bedroom since Tuesday night.
I've been on the sofa since lock down started, just in case either of us had it and passed it on.
I'm sure like most families it's a huge problem if both of us are sick at the same time and all our normal childcare options are in lock down too.
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
Small country.surrey_commuter said:
Why isn’t Holland on that chartPross said:
That seems to suggest that no-one other than South Korea has responded well including Germany whose death rate isn't vastly different to ours yet people keep saying we should be following their example.rick_chasey said:
Don't get me wrong, we need to test our key workers to reduce the time they are out of action but the biggest result of German testing seems to be to bring down their mortality rate.
If you go to the FT page there are some mini charts tracking lots of countries.
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
Probably because their line would run parallel to all the others and just make it more difficult to read.surrey_commuter said:
Why isn’t Holland on that chartPross said:
That seems to suggest that no-one other than South Korea has responded well including Germany whose death rate isn't vastly different to ours yet people keep saying we should be following their example.rick_chasey said:
Don't get me wrong, we need to test our key workers to reduce the time they are out of action but the biggest result of German testing seems to be to bring down their mortality rate.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
It's the shape of the curve and the UK and US curve is still not rounding off.Pross said:
That seems to suggest that no-one other than South Korea has responded well including Germany whose death rate isn't vastly different to ours yet people keep saying we should be following their example.rick_chasey said:
Don't get me wrong, we need to test our key workers to reduce the time they are out of action but the biggest result of German testing seems to be to bring down their mortality rate.0 -
surrey_commuter said:
Why isn’t Holland on that chartPross said:
That seems to suggest that no-one other than South Korea has responded well including Germany whose death rate isn't vastly different to ours yet people keep saying we should be following their example.rick_chasey said:
Don't get me wrong, we need to test our key workers to reduce the time they are out of action but the biggest result of German testing seems to be to bring down their mortality rate.
On the small charts for daily new deaths.0 -
Again, we risk and are making short term panic decisions that will damage and kill more in the longer term.kingstongraham said:
You'll have to explain to me, and I don't think I'm stupid.coopster_the_1st said:
Now seems to be a good time to repost this as some are too stupid to understand what is happeningcoopster_the_1st said:
We would be able to move forward with a solution to this once we are past the 'national outrage' that 10's of thousands of people are going to die.kingstongraham said:
It was Italy plus 15 days, now 16 because the UK put in a short day.coopster_the_1st said:
The people who were using the chart to say the UK is 14 days behind Italy are also saying from the same chart that Germany is 5 days behind the UKPross said:
I'm not sure what Germany are doing but the last comparison graph I saw was suggesting it wasn't working any better than our approach. here are very few countries whose graph are significantly better than ours (Japan and South Korea being the obvious exceptions though there was some talk that Japan were massaging the figures to try to avoid the Olympics getting postponed). Yes, we had the benefit of two weeks learning from Italy that we could have made better use of and yes the Government seem to be royally censored up the distribution of PPE and testing kits but I'm not seeing many other countries delivering better outcomes.rick_chasey said:
Herd immunity is a short-hand for doing SFA, not to be taken literally.haydenm said:Are you suggesting we remove all restrictions and achieve herd immunity? Because my point is that looks like the general approach we are going for, just with a ceiling on the transmission rate to try and keep the NHS operating in the meantime. A slight relaxing of the rules in a month or two with the use of technology to help people know if they are likely to get sick could happen. Just because they are trying to slow the spread doesn't mean we aren't going for some sort of herd immunity surely?
It is the opposite approach to what the Koreans and the Germans are doing.
Last few equivalent days' totals:
Italy: 1016, 1266, 1441, 1809
UK: 1019, 1228, 1408, 1789
If the UK numbers keep following the same path, we're over 10,000 in 11 days from today. Our lockdown went in a couple of days earlier in the spread than Italy's, so hopefully that has an effect.
This is the reality and where I have advocated being pragmatic about what is going to happen.
If we accept that this is going to kill over 10,000 people, why is it a logical and pragmatic conclusion that we need to accept it is going to kill 10s of thousands more when there is something we can do about it?
As we can see from stupids on here (probably god botherers, if not, these people are part of the problem as they only see short term) some still think we can limit this to 10k deaths or close to this.0 -
Click on the chart and go to the Twitter link, there are a load of other, more legible, graphs. Interesting The Netherlands has a similar shape to Italy but at a lower level (high trajectory seemed to tail off sooner).surrey_commuter said:
Why isn’t Holland on that chartPross said:
That seems to suggest that no-one other than South Korea has responded well including Germany whose death rate isn't vastly different to ours yet people keep saying we should be following their example.rick_chasey said:
Don't get me wrong, we need to test our key workers to reduce the time they are out of action but the biggest result of German testing seems to be to bring down their mortality rate.
The cities and regions map looks terrible for London and New York with only Catalonia looking as steep. This might explain why those of you who live and work in London appear to be (even) more concerned than the rest of us.
The only reason I brought up Germany is that some seem to be holding them up on here as a country that is handling things much better than we are.0 -
German Epidemiologist Tobias Kurth said today he expected German deaths to be the same as the rest of Europe.Pross said:The only reason I brought up Germany is that some seem to be holding them up on here as a country that is handling things much better than we are.
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It is a disheartening series of charts. I suppose if we are correct to believe that it takes 2 weeks for lock down to take effect, it is not surprising that we are not seeing significant flattening yet. Today's deaths are reflecting the situation 2 weeks ago.
It would be interesting to see the point at which each country locked down overlaid on those curves. I'm sure someone must have done that. But each lock down is a bit different, so it's hard to compare apples to apples.- Genesis Croix de Fer
- Dolan Tuono0 -
Do you think that there is a simple solution to the problem you are posing?coopster_the_1st said:
Again, we risk and are making short term panic decisions that will damage and kill more in the longer term.kingstongraham said:
You'll have to explain to me, and I don't think I'm stupid.coopster_the_1st said:
Now seems to be a good time to repost this as some are too stupid to understand what is happeningcoopster_the_1st said:
We would be able to move forward with a solution to this once we are past the 'national outrage' that 10's of thousands of people are going to die.kingstongraham said:
It was Italy plus 15 days, now 16 because the UK put in a short day.coopster_the_1st said:
The people who were using the chart to say the UK is 14 days behind Italy are also saying from the same chart that Germany is 5 days behind the UKPross said:
I'm not sure what Germany are doing but the last comparison graph I saw was suggesting it wasn't working any better than our approach. here are very few countries whose graph are significantly better than ours (Japan and South Korea being the obvious exceptions though there was some talk that Japan were massaging the figures to try to avoid the Olympics getting postponed). Yes, we had the benefit of two weeks learning from Italy that we could have made better use of and yes the Government seem to be royally censored up the distribution of PPE and testing kits but I'm not seeing many other countries delivering better outcomes.rick_chasey said:
Herd immunity is a short-hand for doing SFA, not to be taken literally.haydenm said:Are you suggesting we remove all restrictions and achieve herd immunity? Because my point is that looks like the general approach we are going for, just with a ceiling on the transmission rate to try and keep the NHS operating in the meantime. A slight relaxing of the rules in a month or two with the use of technology to help people know if they are likely to get sick could happen. Just because they are trying to slow the spread doesn't mean we aren't going for some sort of herd immunity surely?
It is the opposite approach to what the Koreans and the Germans are doing.
Last few equivalent days' totals:
Italy: 1016, 1266, 1441, 1809
UK: 1019, 1228, 1408, 1789
If the UK numbers keep following the same path, we're over 10,000 in 11 days from today. Our lockdown went in a couple of days earlier in the spread than Italy's, so hopefully that has an effect.
This is the reality and where I have advocated being pragmatic about what is going to happen.
If we accept that this is going to kill over 10,000 people, why is it a logical and pragmatic conclusion that we need to accept it is going to kill 10s of thousands more when there is something we can do about it?
As we can see from stupids on here (probably god botherers, if not, these people are part of the problem as they only see short term) some still think we can limit this to 10k deaths or close to this.0 -
We are still looking at solutions through an emotional lens. Policy decision is being made because of this view.kingstongraham said:
Do you think that there is a simple solution to the problem you are posing?coopster_the_1st said:
Again, we risk and are making short term panic decisions that will damage and kill more in the longer term.kingstongraham said:
You'll have to explain to me, and I don't think I'm stupid.coopster_the_1st said:
Now seems to be a good time to repost this as some are too stupid to understand what is happeningcoopster_the_1st said:
We would be able to move forward with a solution to this once we are past the 'national outrage' that 10's of thousands of people are going to die.kingstongraham said:
It was Italy plus 15 days, now 16 because the UK put in a short day.coopster_the_1st said:
The people who were using the chart to say the UK is 14 days behind Italy are also saying from the same chart that Germany is 5 days behind the UKPross said:
I'm not sure what Germany are doing but the last comparison graph I saw was suggesting it wasn't working any better than our approach. here are very few countries whose graph are significantly better than ours (Japan and South Korea being the obvious exceptions though there was some talk that Japan were massaging the figures to try to avoid the Olympics getting postponed). Yes, we had the benefit of two weeks learning from Italy that we could have made better use of and yes the Government seem to be royally censored up the distribution of PPE and testing kits but I'm not seeing many other countries delivering better outcomes.rick_chasey said:
Herd immunity is a short-hand for doing SFA, not to be taken literally.haydenm said:Are you suggesting we remove all restrictions and achieve herd immunity? Because my point is that looks like the general approach we are going for, just with a ceiling on the transmission rate to try and keep the NHS operating in the meantime. A slight relaxing of the rules in a month or two with the use of technology to help people know if they are likely to get sick could happen. Just because they are trying to slow the spread doesn't mean we aren't going for some sort of herd immunity surely?
It is the opposite approach to what the Koreans and the Germans are doing.
Last few equivalent days' totals:
Italy: 1016, 1266, 1441, 1809
UK: 1019, 1228, 1408, 1789
If the UK numbers keep following the same path, we're over 10,000 in 11 days from today. Our lockdown went in a couple of days earlier in the spread than Italy's, so hopefully that has an effect.
This is the reality and where I have advocated being pragmatic about what is going to happen.
If we accept that this is going to kill over 10,000 people, why is it a logical and pragmatic conclusion that we need to accept it is going to kill 10s of thousands more when there is something we can do about it?
As we can see from stupids on here (probably god botherers, if not, these people are part of the problem as they only see short term) some still think we can limit this to 10k deaths or close to this.
There is no simple solution as you know it so stop being stupid by raising that question.
A pragmatic response rather than an emotional one will give a better overall outcome to this.0 -
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Gleefully announcing that we should just accept that hundreds of thousands will die and that we should let them for the greater good, whilst also stating things like "we should protect the NHS" is not pragmatism, it's just trolling*.coopster_the_1st said:
We are still looking at solutions through an emotional lens. Policy decision is being made because of this view.kingstongraham said:
Do you think that there is a simple solution to the problem you are posing?coopster_the_1st said:
Again, we risk and are making short term panic decisions that will damage and kill more in the longer term.kingstongraham said:
You'll have to explain to me, and I don't think I'm stupid.coopster_the_1st said:
Now seems to be a good time to repost this as some are too stupid to understand what is happeningcoopster_the_1st said:
We would be able to move forward with a solution to this once we are past the 'national outrage' that 10's of thousands of people are going to die.kingstongraham said:
It was Italy plus 15 days, now 16 because the UK put in a short day.coopster_the_1st said:
The people who were using the chart to say the UK is 14 days behind Italy are also saying from the same chart that Germany is 5 days behind the UKPross said:
I'm not sure what Germany are doing but the last comparison graph I saw was suggesting it wasn't working any better than our approach. here are very few countries whose graph are significantly better than ours (Japan and South Korea being the obvious exceptions though there was some talk that Japan were massaging the figures to try to avoid the Olympics getting postponed). Yes, we had the benefit of two weeks learning from Italy that we could have made better use of and yes the Government seem to be royally censored up the distribution of PPE and testing kits but I'm not seeing many other countries delivering better outcomes.rick_chasey said:
Herd immunity is a short-hand for doing SFA, not to be taken literally.haydenm said:Are you suggesting we remove all restrictions and achieve herd immunity? Because my point is that looks like the general approach we are going for, just with a ceiling on the transmission rate to try and keep the NHS operating in the meantime. A slight relaxing of the rules in a month or two with the use of technology to help people know if they are likely to get sick could happen. Just because they are trying to slow the spread doesn't mean we aren't going for some sort of herd immunity surely?
It is the opposite approach to what the Koreans and the Germans are doing.
Last few equivalent days' totals:
Italy: 1016, 1266, 1441, 1809
UK: 1019, 1228, 1408, 1789
If the UK numbers keep following the same path, we're over 10,000 in 11 days from today. Our lockdown went in a couple of days earlier in the spread than Italy's, so hopefully that has an effect.
This is the reality and where I have advocated being pragmatic about what is going to happen.
If we accept that this is going to kill over 10,000 people, why is it a logical and pragmatic conclusion that we need to accept it is going to kill 10s of thousands more when there is something we can do about it?
As we can see from stupids on here (probably god botherers, if not, these people are part of the problem as they only see short term) some still think we can limit this to 10k deaths or close to this.
There is no simple solution as you know it so stop being silly by raising that question.
A pragmatic response rather than an emotional one will give a better overall outcome to this.
*I'm assuming it's trolling as the alternative is that you are just really dense because your statements are completely at odds with each other - but you don't come across as dense.- Genesis Croix de Fer
- Dolan Tuono0 -
Gosh, it does look like a bit of a shambles. What do you think they should do Chasey to sort it out?Stevo_666 said:
Maybe you should go and have a look - below is a link to help you. Their stats are markedly worse than ours on both a cases and deaths per million of population - and people there were still free to wander around outside until after we went into lock down.rick_chasey said:
I don't know anything about the Dutch response, but I do know their behaviour in the EU is shameful and they should be given a firm smack behind closed doors.Pross said:
Rick is unusually quiet on the way the Dutch are doing things whilst acting as though the UK response is the worst in Europe.ddraver said:See also the surgery in S. Wales who tried to persuade similar people to sign pre-emptive DNRs...
The Netherlands have certainly taken an interesting approach...
I do know there is a culture around quality of end-of-life and there are endless discussions about the perils of living too long or living with terrible health, and they are more fatalistic about their life than in the UK, so the idea of a Dr telling an 80 yr old man the above is not an enormous shock to me.
I have no idea if they're any better than the UK. I suspect on a very basic level, Netherlands, Scandis etc, have less poverty and so are naturally a little healthier on balance, but who knows.
https://worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Have you considered going and preaching to the Dutch about what they're doing wrong?0 -
Do you not see that the current response is an attempt to be pragmatic?coopster_the_1st said:
We are still looking at solutions through an emotional lens. Policy decision is being made because of this view.kingstongraham said:
Do you think that there is a simple solution to the problem you are posing?coopster_the_1st said:
Again, we risk and are making short term panic decisions that will damage and kill more in the longer term.kingstongraham said:
You'll have to explain to me, and I don't think I'm stupid.coopster_the_1st said:
Now seems to be a good time to repost this as some are too stupid to understand what is happeningcoopster_the_1st said:
We would be able to move forward with a solution to this once we are past the 'national outrage' that 10's of thousands of people are going to die.kingstongraham said:
It was Italy plus 15 days, now 16 because the UK put in a short day.coopster_the_1st said:
The people who were using the chart to say the UK is 14 days behind Italy are also saying from the same chart that Germany is 5 days behind the UKPross said:
I'm not sure what Germany are doing but the last comparison graph I saw was suggesting it wasn't working any better than our approach. here are very few countries whose graph are significantly better than ours (Japan and South Korea being the obvious exceptions though there was some talk that Japan were massaging the figures to try to avoid the Olympics getting postponed). Yes, we had the benefit of two weeks learning from Italy that we could have made better use of and yes the Government seem to be royally censored up the distribution of PPE and testing kits but I'm not seeing many other countries delivering better outcomes.rick_chasey said:
Herd immunity is a short-hand for doing SFA, not to be taken literally.haydenm said:Are you suggesting we remove all restrictions and achieve herd immunity? Because my point is that looks like the general approach we are going for, just with a ceiling on the transmission rate to try and keep the NHS operating in the meantime. A slight relaxing of the rules in a month or two with the use of technology to help people know if they are likely to get sick could happen. Just because they are trying to slow the spread doesn't mean we aren't going for some sort of herd immunity surely?
It is the opposite approach to what the Koreans and the Germans are doing.
Last few equivalent days' totals:
Italy: 1016, 1266, 1441, 1809
UK: 1019, 1228, 1408, 1789
If the UK numbers keep following the same path, we're over 10,000 in 11 days from today. Our lockdown went in a couple of days earlier in the spread than Italy's, so hopefully that has an effect.
This is the reality and where I have advocated being pragmatic about what is going to happen.
If we accept that this is going to kill over 10,000 people, why is it a logical and pragmatic conclusion that we need to accept it is going to kill 10s of thousands more when there is something we can do about it?
As we can see from stupids on here (probably god botherers, if not, these people are part of the problem as they only see short term) some still think we can limit this to 10k deaths or close to this.
There is no simple solution as you know it so stop being silly by raising that question but a pragmatic response rather than an emotional one will give a better overall outcome to this.
There's a limited amount of medical resources, modelling has been done as to how best to use that and not overwhelm it, we aren't completely locked down. Even if we do get further restrictions, it is all about pragmatism. Everyone realises that the time when this could be avoided is long in the past now.
The difficult next step is how to move on without causing more problems that result in more unnecessary deaths - the answer has to be pragmatic - testing to inform when that can be done, how best to increase the resources available to the health service, and what level of interaction will be safe enough to not overwhelm the increased health service given the knowledge of the spread of the disease (through testing).
You seem to think "pragmatic" automatically equals "hugely more deaths than necessary". I disagree.0 -
Longer than that I think for deaths. We should be seeing a flattening in new infections though that's quite hard to see without mass testing.pangolin said:It is a disheartening series of charts. I suppose if we are correct to believe that it takes 2 weeks for lock down to take effect, it is not surprising that we are not seeing significant flattening yet. Today's deaths are reflecting the situation 2 weeks ago.
It would be interesting to see the point at which each country locked down overlaid on those curves. I'm sure someone must have done that. But each lock down is a bit different, so it's hard to compare apples to apples.0 -
Be interesting to see if the govt react to the turning of the tide in terms of support for their strategy. As well as economic and public health considerations will political ones influence policy?[Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]0
