The big Coronavirus thread

bompington

Doubtless this won't work, knowing the tendency for discussion to fragment across different threads, but it would make sense to have a dedicated thread.

rick_chasey

I'm sure most of you have seen this now but this dashboard is quite clear:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Most notable is the spread between confirmed infections and deaths between Italy and Korea

bompington

No cases recorded anywhere near us yet (the rumour mill had the first Scottish case clocked as a shopkeeper in Dundee but that doesn't seem likely to be true).

So far at school we've had:
(Monday) the first kid being kept off school to keep him safe. Not a kid with underlying health issues as far as we know.
(Tuesday) the first kid clocked wearing a face mask to school.
(Every day) no practical plans or instructions at all. Well, apart from "wash your hands".

Now Dr Bomp is medical and so she has more useful stuff to say than most. FTR, on the complacency-panic spectrum she would recommend being a bit closer to the panic end .

There are reports that the government is considering deploying medical and nursing students as extra manpower. So there must be a plan for the most effective use of the existing medical workforce, right?

Well, if there is, no-one's actually told the workforce. No advice on what to do at their regular work, no indication of if or when people might be redeployed.

In short, we keep on hearing about how "well-prepared" the NHS is, but nobody seems to have any clear idea of exactly what these preparations are.

We are currently on the same trajectory as Italy: if we keep on it, the NHS will be overwhelmed in about two weeks' time.

Overwhelmed meaning not enough ventilators for seriously ill patients. In Italy (have you noticed how little "citizen journalism" is coming out of Italian hospitals?) triage is simply that older patients are routinely being given oxygen and left to die, or if they're very lucky, recover by themselves.


So at home we have actually got a plan for what to do if Dr Bomp is exposed at work, bearing in mind that I am in a high risk group: over 50, Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy & consequent high blood pressure. Basically - we reckon we can live isolated lives at home for as long as necessary.

Keep calm and wash your hands people!

Pross

I still don't understand where they get the figures from on how many cases we have. From what I can tell, if you have symptoms but haven't travelled abroad or been in contact with a known case then the advice seems to be just stay home but no-one will ever know if it is Covid-19 or the flu / a cold. I had a cold a couple of weeks back that had it come on now I wouldn't know what it was as I had all the Covid symptoms (albeit plus a blocked nose).

focuszing723

Pross said:

I still don't understand where they get the figures from on how many cases we have. From what I can tell, if you have symptoms but haven't travelled abroad or been in contact with a known case then the advice seems to be just stay home but no-one will ever know if it is Covid-19 or the flu / a cold. I had a cold a couple of weeks back that had it come on now I wouldn't know what it was as I had all the Covid symptoms (albeit plus a blocked nose).

Yes, very true, also the fact that adolescence don't seem to show symptoms.

The "Diamond Princess" example gives a good snapshot to me and perspective. 696 infected and 7 people died, bear in mind too that the passengers would have been more elderly.

Tashman

I imagine that virologists are watching on with curious excitement. How often do they get to truly study a viral contagion from ground zero.

kingstonian

Also, the stats show that the number of recovered cases in the UK has remained at 18 for over a week now, which makes me wonder what lag there is in recording recovered cases.

kingstonian

Pross said:

I still don't understand where they get the figures from on how many cases we have. From what I can tell, if you have symptoms but haven't travelled abroad or been in contact with a known case then the advice seems to be just stay home but no-one will ever know if it is Covid-19 or the flu / a cold. I had a cold a couple of weeks back that had it come on now I wouldn't know what it was as I had all the Covid symptoms (albeit plus a blocked nose).

From the anecdotal snippets I've heard, the NHS helplines etc are going through a triage process which filters the vast majority out, and then only those that tick all the boxes are being sent for screening. And of those being tested, it is less than 2% that come back with a positive result, which shows just how many people there are with your typical winter coughs and colds etc

mugensi

I'm in Ireland and there is quite a bit of panic here about it however there is an equal amount of disbelief in BoJo's plan of action which seems to amount to 'Look, we're going to get this, a lot of people will die, so just get on with it and ride the storm'

There is a huge amount of travel between Ireland and the UK and if the UK goes in the same direction as Italy then we are going to suffer because of that and despite the steps that are being taken here to combat it.

coopster_the_1st

Only 9 posts before we get the fake news that the UK is not doing anything and just letting it spread

surrey_commuter

The UK Govt is balancing public health priorities with economic priorities. If the people of Ireland disagree with this trade off then they need to pressure their own Govt to prioritise public health.

Dorset_Boy

mugensi said:

I'm in Ireland and there is quite a bit of panic here about it however there is an equal amount of disbelief in BoJo's plan of action which seems to amount to 'Look, we're going to get this, a lot of people will die, so just get on with it and ride the storm'

There is a huge amount of travel between Ireland and the UK and if the UK goes in the same direction as Italy then we are going to suffer because of that and despite the steps that are being taken here to combat it.

There will be 20-30,000 Irish at Cheltenham this week I guess, so what will the Irish Government do on their return?

Longshot

mugensi said:

BoJo's plan of action which seems to amount to 'Look, we're going to get this, a lot of people will die, so just get on with it and ride the storm'

Actually I find that quite refreshingly honest for Boris.

DeVlaeminck

mugensi said:

I'm in Ireland and there is quite a bit of panic here about it however there is an equal amount of disbelief in BoJo's plan of action which seems to amount to 'Look, we're going to get this, a lot of people will die, so just get on with it and ride the storm'

There is a huge amount of travel between Ireland and the UK and if the UK goes in the same direction as Italy then we are going to suffer because of that and despite the steps that are being taken here to combat it.

Something else for them to blame the Brits for though, so a silver lining for them.

tailwindhome

This is good.

ddraver

Switzerland arent testing anyone young or with no underlying health conditions apparently. If you have any slightly 'ill' feelings self isolate for 2 days after the symptoms have disappeared...

tailwindhome

mugensi said:

I'm in Ireland and there is quite a bit of panic here about it however there is an equal amount of disbelief in BoJo's plan of action which seems to amount to 'Look, we're going to get this, a lot of people will die, so just get on with it and ride the storm'

There is a huge amount of travel between Ireland and the UK and if the UK goes in the same direction as Italy then we are going to suffer because of that and despite the steps that are being taken here to combat it.

This originates from a viral Tweet editing an interview with the PM, which deliberately changes the meaning of what he said

Pross

surrey_commuter said:

The UK Govt is balancing public health priorities with economic priorities. If the people of Ireland disagree with this trade off then they need to pressure their own Govt to prioritise public health.

It feels like a pragmatic and sensible approach to me.

TheBigBean

The most upvoted thread on Reddit Ireland is one about the lack of an independence day (can't have it with partial independence etc.) There are also plenty of less popular threads on corona, but not even there has someone managed to blame it on British [yet].

surrey_commuter

Pross said:

surrey_commuter said:

The UK Govt is balancing public health priorities with economic priorities. If the people of Ireland disagree with this trade off then they need to pressure their own Govt to prioritise public health.

It feels like a pragmatic and sensible approach to me.

I would tend to agree with you but do feel that not shutting schools is a big mistake. I saw some other research from the Spanish Flu outbreak that echoed the graph above.

TheBigBean

Some analysis. Message is to go home now.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

elbowloh

surrey_commuter said:

Pross said:

surrey_commuter said:

The UK Govt is balancing public health priorities with economic priorities. If the people of Ireland disagree with this trade off then they need to pressure their own Govt to prioritise public health.

It feels like a pragmatic and sensible approach to me.

I would tend to agree with you but do feel that not shutting schools is a big mistake. I saw some other research from the Spanish Flu outbreak that echoed the graph above.

The problem with shutting schools means that inevitably that parents will need to take time off work to look after their children - lowering productivity and the debate about who pays for the leave or whether its unpaid.

TheBigBean

surrey_commuter said:

Pross said:

surrey_commuter said:

The UK Govt is balancing public health priorities with economic priorities. If the people of Ireland disagree with this trade off then they need to pressure their own Govt to prioritise public health.

It feels like a pragmatic and sensible approach to me.

I would tend to agree with you but do feel that not shutting schools is a big mistake. I saw some other research from the Spanish Flu outbreak that echoed the graph above.

The problem is that it is not known whether children don't get the virus or whether they simply have very minor cases, but are spreaders nonetheless. If it is latter then the real danger is that the parents keep on working and all high risk grandparents look after the spreaders.

Pross

What happens in places where there have been strict quarantines when people are actually allowed to restart normal life? Surely there's a risk that the virus is still around and will simply spread at that point? That's why, to my untrained brain, it feels like just getting on with it and accepting the inevitable with plans in place for dealing with it seems logical.

I also feel like we've had a fair few 'cry wolf' situations over the last 15-20 years with new strains of flu, SARS etc. that never seemed to actually affect the UK in the end and maybe as a result it took us a while to start taking this virus seriously.

kingstongraham

Pross said:

What happens in places where there have been strict quarantines when people are actually allowed to restart normal life? Surely there's a risk that the virus is still around and will simply spread at that point? That's why, to my untrained brain, it feels like just getting on with it and accepting the inevitable with plans in place for dealing with it seems logical.

This is what "flattening the curve" is all about. If there are 15% of cases requiring hospitalisation, then spreading that number out over the longest possible time allows them (and anyone else who also needs hospital treatment) to get the treatment they require. If all 15% of the people who are going to need hospital treatment need it at the same time, there aren't enough beds, and the system is overwhelmed.

"Getting on with it and accepting the inevitable" is people dying who don't need to.

surrey_commuter

Pross said:

What happens in places where there have been strict quarantines when people are actually allowed to restart normal life? Surely there's a risk that the virus is still around and will simply spread at that point? That's why, to my untrained brain, it feels like just getting on with it and accepting the inevitable with plans in place for dealing with it seems logical.

I also feel like we've had a fair few 'cry wolf' situations over the last 15-20 years with new strains of flu, SARS etc. that never seemed to actually affect the UK in the end and maybe as a result it took us a while to start taking this virus seriously.

Another thought is that they are trying to manage the speed of spread so the NHS is not overwhelmed

elbowloh

surrey_commuter said:

Pross said:

What happens in places where there have been strict quarantines when people are actually allowed to restart normal life? Surely there's a risk that the virus is still around and will simply spread at that point? That's why, to my untrained brain, it feels like just getting on with it and accepting the inevitable with plans in place for dealing with it seems logical.

I also feel like we've had a fair few 'cry wolf' situations over the last 15-20 years with new strains of flu, SARS etc. that never seemed to actually affect the UK in the end and maybe as a result it took us a while to start taking this virus seriously.

Another thought is that they are trying to manage the speed of spread so the NHS is not overwhelmed

Not to mention hoping that we can delay the spread until the Spring / warmer weather when there should be less pressure on the NHS from regular seasonal colds and flu.

darkhairedlord

In other news, nearly 40,000 will die in the UK from road accidents and vehicle emissions.
Although this will reduce if we are all at home so perhaps the virus will save more lives than it takes.

Longshot

darkhairedlord said:

In other news, nearly 40,000 will die in the UK from road accidents and vehicle emissions.
Although this will reduce if we are all at home so perhaps the virus will save more lives than it takes.

Sadly, the reduction in RTA deaths will be outweighed by the number of domestic argument related deaths.

TheBigBean

darkhairedlord said:

In other news, nearly 40,000 will die in the UK from road accidents and vehicle emissions.
Although this will reduce if we are all at home so perhaps the virus will save more lives than it takes.

Google doesn't support that figure even if it was relevant.

Stevo_666

TheBigBean said:

Some analysis. Message is to go home now.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

Interesting and a bit concerning in terms of how many more there may well be over and above the official figures.

I started avoiding public transport as of today and will now consider staying away from the office after this week. Better safe than sorry.