The big Coronavirus thread

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  • ddraver
    ddraver Posts: 26,698
    Ma raver is also saying that in Devon & Cornwall it's thus far had little effect.

    On the other hand, I went for a first ski sans-ACL today and it went ok so, well that's some positive news even if it doesn't really change anything about the injury at all. Nice to know that I still like it even when it's about as shit as it can be...
    We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
    - @ddraver
  • bompington
    bompington Posts: 7,674
    TheBigBean said:

    rjsterry said:

    TheBigBean said:

    focuszing723 said:

    "A new rapid diagnostic test for COVID-19, developed by a University of Cambridge spinout company and capable of diagnosing the infection in under 90 minutes, is being deployed at Cambridge hospitals, ahead of being launched in hospitals nationwide."

    https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/rapid-covid-19-diagnostic-test-developed-by-cambridge-team-to-be-deployed-in-hospitals

    I watched this on the news, very positive and trialling it at Cambridge hospital now.

    I have wondered if a possible reason for the slow testing ramp up in the UK is that a better, more useful test is about to be made available.

    I think that's being rather generous.
    Perhaps, but based on evidence. The snazzy new test that a poster on this thread has seen is clearly better than the current ones.
    Yes, as long as it's accurate.
    The main issue is probably people who haven't been infected for long enough for anything to show up.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,154
    New unemployment claims in the USA up from a massively record breaking 3.3 million new claims in the week ending March 21st to 6.6 million NEW claims in week ending March 28th.

    Holy expletive.
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,431
    rick_chasey said:

    FWIW forecasts are all over the place. For Q2 capital economics has U.K. at -15% so i would suggest no one knows how bad it’ll be other than *really bad*

    Just so everyone is clear, the numbers that I quoted above refer to the annual GDP impact: what you refer to above is for one quarter - Q2 2020 - which will very likely be the worst individual quarter.

    Nowhere have I seen -15% in the context of annual GDP declines - for any country.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    TheBigBean said:

    tailwindhome said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    Got some feedback from the 'front line' - a mate of mine is a NHS consultant specialising in respiratory illnesses and has just spent 10 days on the COVID-19 section of the large London hospital where he works. Here's what he said when asked how he was doing (as we hadn't heard from him in a while):

    "It's OK I am WFH today having done 10 days on the spin. It has been grim as he death rate has doubled from normal but my hospital has coped quite well. The media reports are always slightly behind what is happening. So although deaths and cases are rising like the ripple effect of a stone dropped in a pond nationally I think London may be settling. I'm just not sure and await another huge surge in next week that is the horrible uncertainty of it all.

    I think the lock down is working though and will kill the epidemic and has probably save many lives. Given all the dreadful politics in recent times it has been gratifying to see the country pull together and the NHS rise to the challenge - the British spirit is still there."

    And all we're being asked to do is stay at home and watch TV for a bit.
    It's not really a lot being asked off *most* of us.
    Sure, some are having a good lockdown with their feet up and TVs on. Others scarcely have time to sleep between childcare, companies collapsing, financial ruin etc.
    I've all that too.
    Still wouldn't swap with anyone on the NHS front line though
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • bompington
    bompington Posts: 7,674
    edited April 2020
    Of course, you can't really say for certain that it's a 15% decline, a 6% decline or whatever, because you're comparing it to a hypothetical, and it might have happened anyway. Or something. At least that's what I understand from those who understand these things better ;)
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    focuszing723 said:

    "A new rapid diagnostic test for COVID-19, developed by a University of Cambridge spinout company and capable of diagnosing the infection in under 90 minutes, is being deployed at Cambridge hospitals, ahead of being launched in hospitals nationwide."

    https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/rapid-covid-19-diagnostic-test-developed-by-cambridge-team-to-be-deployed-in-hospitals

    I watched this on the news, very positive and trialling it at Cambridge hospital now.

    focuszing723 said:

    "A new rapid diagnostic test for COVID-19, developed by a University of Cambridge spinout company and capable of diagnosing the infection in under 90 minutes, is being deployed at Cambridge hospitals, ahead of being launched in hospitals nationwide."

    https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/rapid-covid-19-diagnostic-test-developed-by-cambridge-team-to-be-deployed-in-hospitals

    I watched this on the news, very positive and trialling it at Cambridge hospital now.

    The Times carried this story but not prominently. Evil hedge Chris Hohn has bought 100 to give to local hospitals. Co says it can not scale up production. In theory they could licence it to others to build.

    As money is no objective there must be a reason why the Govt did not buy these and ramp up production;
    1) the product is worse than useless, ie unreliable
    2) indolence
    3) incompetence
  • bompington
    bompington Posts: 7,674
    edited April 2020
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,431
    bompington said:

    Of course, you can't really say for certain that it's a 15% decline, a 6% decline or whatever, because you're comparing it to a hypothetical, and it might have happened anyway. Or something. At least that's what I understand from those who understand these things better ;)

    It will likely be compared to either Q2 2019, or possibly to Q1 2020. In just over 3 months we will know.

    Clearly there are people out there who understand It better than you do :)
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,924
    bompington said:

    One forumite stated that the chances of dying from corona in Europe were the same as winning the lottery. This was based on an assumption that only 13 people would die.
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,463
    surrey_commuter said:

    focuszing723 said:

    "A new rapid diagnostic test for COVID-19, developed by a University of Cambridge spinout company and capable of diagnosing the infection in under 90 minutes, is being deployed at Cambridge hospitals, ahead of being launched in hospitals nationwide."

    https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/rapid-covid-19-diagnostic-test-developed-by-cambridge-team-to-be-deployed-in-hospitals

    I watched this on the news, very positive and trialling it at Cambridge hospital now.

    focuszing723 said:

    "A new rapid diagnostic test for COVID-19, developed by a University of Cambridge spinout company and capable of diagnosing the infection in under 90 minutes, is being deployed at Cambridge hospitals, ahead of being launched in hospitals nationwide."

    https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/rapid-covid-19-diagnostic-test-developed-by-cambridge-team-to-be-deployed-in-hospitals

    I watched this on the news, very positive and trialling it at Cambridge hospital now.

    The Times carried this story but not prominently. Evil hedge Chris Hohn has bought 100 to give to local hospitals. Co says it can not scale up production. In theory they could licence it to others to build.

    As money is no objective there must be a reason why the Govt did not buy these and ramp up production;
    1) the product is worse than useless, ie unreliable
    2) indolence
    3) incompetence
    4) It's still a new product and subject to further testing prior to production being ramped up?
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    Stevo_666 said:

    rick_chasey said:

    FWIW forecasts are all over the place. For Q2 capital economics has U.K. at -15% so i would suggest no one knows how bad it’ll be other than *really bad*

    Just so everyone is clear, the numbers that I quoted above refer to the annual GDP impact: what you refer to above is for one quarter - Q2 2020 - which will very likely be the worst individual quarter.

    Nowhere have I seen -15% in the context of annual GDP declines - for any country.
    My maths is terrible but if we assume Q2 is -15% it would be nigh on a miracle if the year wasn’t in double digits.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    bompington said:

    Of course, you can't really say for certain that it's a 15% decline, a 6% decline or whatever, because you're comparing it to a hypothetical, and it might have happened anyway. Or something. At least that's what I understand from those who understand these things better ;)


    You are correct, it is entirely possible that C19 has been positive for the UK economy.

    Though that would make Coopster’s theory nonsense so maybe you are wrong.
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,463
    surrey_commuter said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    rick_chasey said:

    FWIW forecasts are all over the place. For Q2 capital economics has U.K. at -15% so i would suggest no one knows how bad it’ll be other than *really bad*

    Just so everyone is clear, the numbers that I quoted above refer to the annual GDP impact: what you refer to above is for one quarter - Q2 2020 - which will very likely be the worst individual quarter.

    Nowhere have I seen -15% in the context of annual GDP declines - for any country.
    My maths is terrible but if we assume Q2 is -15% it would be nigh on a miracle if the year wasn’t in double digits.
    Wouldn't it depend if a large part of that 15% was just due to things being put on temporary hold? My thinking is that work is either going to dry up for a long time or we'll be swamped when things reopen and everyone wants to get back to delivering things to their original timescales. If the restrictions get lifted and we have a nice summer I can see UK tourism getting a massive boost. I guess the problem is that those sorts of things are relatively small parts of our GDP though.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,154
    kingstongraham said:

    coopster_the_1st said:

    Pross said:

    rick_chasey said:

    haydenm said:

    Are you suggesting we remove all restrictions and achieve herd immunity? Because my point is that looks like the general approach we are going for, just with a ceiling on the transmission rate to try and keep the NHS operating in the meantime. A slight relaxing of the rules in a month or two with the use of technology to help people know if they are likely to get sick could happen. Just because they are trying to slow the spread doesn't mean we aren't going for some sort of herd immunity surely?

    Herd immunity is a short-hand for doing SFA, not to be taken literally.

    It is the opposite approach to what the Koreans and the Germans are doing.
    I'm not sure what Germany are doing but the last comparison graph I saw was suggesting it wasn't working any better than our approach. here are very few countries whose graph are significantly better than ours (Japan and South Korea being the obvious exceptions though there was some talk that Japan were massaging the figures to try to avoid the Olympics getting postponed). Yes, we had the benefit of two weeks learning from Italy that we could have made better use of and yes the Government seem to be royally censored up the distribution of PPE and testing kits but I'm not seeing many other countries delivering better outcomes.
    The people who were using the chart to say the UK is 14 days behind Italy are also saying from the same chart that Germany is 5 days behind the UK
    It was Italy plus 15 days, now 16 because the UK put in a short day.

    Last few equivalent days' totals:
    Italy: 1016, 1266, 1441, 1809
    UK: 1019, 1228, 1408, 1789

    If the UK numbers keep following the same path, we're over 10,000 in 11 days from today. Our lockdown went in a couple of days earlier in the spread than Italy's, so hopefully that has an effect.
    Next couple of days don't make great reading. I was hoping yesterday was an aberration but today's another bad number.

    Italy: 2158, 2503.
    UK: 2352, 2921.
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,431
    surrey_commuter said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    rick_chasey said:

    FWIW forecasts are all over the place. For Q2 capital economics has U.K. at -15% so i would suggest no one knows how bad it’ll be other than *really bad*

    Just so everyone is clear, the numbers that I quoted above refer to the annual GDP impact: what you refer to above is for one quarter - Q2 2020 - which will very likely be the worst individual quarter.

    Nowhere have I seen -15% in the context of annual GDP declines - for any country.
    My maths is terrible but if we assume Q2 is -15% it would be nigh on a miracle if the year wasn’t in double digits.
    Put simply it will be the average of the 4 quarters. So if one quarter is -15% and the other three quarters are no change compared to their comparative periods in the previous year, then the overall impact will be -15%/4 = -3.75%. You would need more than 2 of the other 3 quarters to show similar falls for it to be double digit negative annually.

    https://wikihow.com/Calculate-Annualized-GDP-Growth-Rates
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    Stevo_666 said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    rick_chasey said:

    FWIW forecasts are all over the place. For Q2 capital economics has U.K. at -15% so i would suggest no one knows how bad it’ll be other than *really bad*

    Just so everyone is clear, the numbers that I quoted above refer to the annual GDP impact: what you refer to above is for one quarter - Q2 2020 - which will very likely be the worst individual quarter.

    Nowhere have I seen -15% in the context of annual GDP declines - for any country.
    My maths is terrible but if we assume Q2 is -15% it would be nigh on a miracle if the year wasn’t in double digits.
    Put simply it will be the average of the 4 quarters. So if one quarter is -15% and the other three quarters are no change compared to their comparative periods in the previous year, then the overall impact will be -15%/4 = -3.75%. You would need more than 2 of the other 3 quarters to show similar falls for it to be double digit negative annually.

    https://wikihow.com/Calculate-Annualized-GDP-Growth-Rates
    I thought so. If we take Q2 to be -15% then Q1 likely to be -5%, Q3 -10% and Q4 5%. Would be my guess so making annual fall 8-9%
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,333
    surrey_commuter said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    rick_chasey said:

    FWIW forecasts are all over the place. For Q2 capital economics has U.K. at -15% so i would suggest no one knows how bad it’ll be other than *really bad*

    Just so everyone is clear, the numbers that I quoted above refer to the annual GDP impact: what you refer to above is for one quarter - Q2 2020 - which will very likely be the worst individual quarter.

    Nowhere have I seen -15% in the context of annual GDP declines - for any country.
    My maths is terrible but if we assume Q2 is -15% it would be nigh on a miracle if the year wasn’t in double digits.
    Put simply it will be the average of the 4 quarters. So if one quarter is -15% and the other three quarters are no change compared to their comparative periods in the previous year, then the overall impact will be -15%/4 = -3.75%. You would need more than 2 of the other 3 quarters to show similar falls for it to be double digit negative annually.

    https://wikihow.com/Calculate-Annualized-GDP-Growth-Rates
    I thought so. If we take Q2 to be -15% then Q1 likely to be -5%, Q3 -10% and Q4 5%. Would be my guess so making annual fall 8-9%
    That would be my guesstimate. There will be no opening the taps and an immediate recovery. I’d think 3 month hard times needs 6 months to fully recover, at least.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,577
    All depends on the availability of credit.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,463
    The duration rather than the severity is the concern for me, a very sharp drop over one quarter and then a bounce back shouldn't be too big an issue and one that the company I work for can probably survive with a bit of belt tightening and the reserves they've built up. Once it goes on longer than that is where it gets scary and jobs come under threat.
  • pangolin
    pangolin Posts: 6,648
    Do people genuinely think this will last 1 quarter? What resolution do you see in that time frame?
    - Genesis Croix de Fer
    - Dolan Tuono
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,431
    surrey_commuter said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    rick_chasey said:

    FWIW forecasts are all over the place. For Q2 capital economics has U.K. at -15% so i would suggest no one knows how bad it’ll be other than *really bad*

    Just so everyone is clear, the numbers that I quoted above refer to the annual GDP impact: what you refer to above is for one quarter - Q2 2020 - which will very likely be the worst individual quarter.

    Nowhere have I seen -15% in the context of annual GDP declines - for any country.
    My maths is terrible but if we assume Q2 is -15% it would be nigh on a miracle if the year wasn’t in double digits.
    Put simply it will be the average of the 4 quarters. So if one quarter is -15% and the other three quarters are no change compared to their comparative periods in the previous year, then the overall impact will be -15%/4 = -3.75%. You would need more than 2 of the other 3 quarters to show similar falls for it to be double digit negative annually.

    https://wikihow.com/Calculate-Annualized-GDP-Growth-Rates
    I thought so. If we take Q2 to be -15% then Q1 likely to be -5%, Q3 -10% and Q4 5%. Would be my guess so making annual fall 8-9%
    Yep.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,431
    edited April 2020
    pangolin said:

    Do people genuinely think this will last 1 quarter? What resolution do you see in that time frame?

    No, but we are not expecting -15% GDP impact every quarter.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,463
    pangolin said:

    Do people genuinely think this will last 1 quarter? What resolution do you see in that time frame?

    I'm hoping the current lockdown will be over within Q2 and that we'll get some respite before the next round.
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,431
    rjsterry said:

    All depends on the availability of credit.

    Given the government taps are open and the banks are in a stronger position than at the start of the last GFC, my view is credit will likely be less of an issue this time. Clearly this crisis presents a different set of challenges though.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,333
    pangolin said:

    Do people genuinely think this will last 1 quarter? What resolution do you see in that time frame?

    Well the current government outlook is 3 months lockdown and 6 months to normality although that is subject to change. And the economy will not start to bounce back till the normality 6 month mark.
    In summary, not me.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    edited April 2020
    Well hopefully Rishi's stimulus will help the restart when it happens.

    The entire point of that was to make sure roles didn't disappear and businesses avoided going to the wall when the lockdown lifts.

    I don't know much about the rest of the economy but I am quietly confident the FS sector, minus insurance - some will go bust - will come out in a relatively stronger position.

    The worry are the number of people already claiming UC. It's a gigantic number and the number is rising at an eye-watering speed. This is properly 1929 territory.

    It's also worth noting that massive 15% drops cause economic damage and scarring that doesn't just disappear.

    I see a lot of forecasts coalescing around a "tick" based recovery, with it taking between 3-5 years to return to 2019 levels.
    _
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,154
    Last week's USA unemployment claims graph updated. No other recession comes close by this metric.

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