The big Coronavirus thread

Stevo_666

rick_chasey said:

Well hopefully Rishi's stimulus will help the restart when it happens.

The entire point of that was to make sure roles didn't disappear and businesses avoided going to the wall when the lockdown lifts.

I don't know much about the rest of the economy but I am quietly confident the FS sector, minus insurance - some will go bust - will come out in a relatively stronger position.

The worry are the number of people already claiming UC. It's a gigantic number and the number is rising at an eye-watering speed. This is properly 1929 territory.

It's also worth noting that massive 15% drops cause economic damage and scarring that doesn't just disappear.

I see a lot of forecasts coalescing around a "tick" based recovery, with it taking between 3-5 years to return to 2019 levels.

To be in '1929 territory' would require the Global economy to shrink by 15% overall. It is a bit of a stretch to take an expected one quarter drop of 15% and turn that into an overall 15% contraction.

I will agree with you that the recovery from whatever low point is reached is likely to take a few years rather than an immediate bounce back.

Pross

kingstongraham said:

Last week's USA unemployment claims graph updated. No other recession comes close by this metric.

I suspect there hasn't been another instance of large sectors of employment just coming to a halt literally overnight. Also, I don't know what measures they put in place but maybe it almost encouraged people to be made unemployed. Our own Universal Credit applications are worrying as it seems that the job retention measures aren't being put in place quickly enough or employers aren't making use of them (which would be odd).

john80

coopster_the_1st said:

kingstongraham said:

But feel free to show me something that convinces me that minimising deaths and hospitalisations due to coronavirus isn't the right priority at the moment.

We are not doing this.

If we were really serious about minimising deaths we would move all the vulnerable and old into designated quanrantined areas (take over Universities, Holiday camps, etc) and keep them there away from the risks of society until they can be vaccinated.

Good one. Take the old people out the home with facilities to deal with them and then what. Have the same carers turn up to a different place to care for them. I doff my cap to your awesome improvement. I wonder how many stairs their are in a university halls.

pblakeney

Pross said:

kingstongraham said:

Last week's USA unemployment claims graph updated. No other recession comes close by this metric.

I suspect there hasn't been another instance of large sectors of employment just coming to a halt literally overnight. Also, I don't know what measures they put in place but maybe it almost encouraged people to be made unemployed. Our own Universal Credit applications are worrying as it seems that the job retention measures aren't being put in place quickly enough or employers aren't making use of them (which would be odd).

A lot of companies were at breaking point before this all kicked off. There will be a lot simply giving up the ghost.
I also suspect that a lot of slackers and deadwood may find that their services are no longer required.
On a positive note, those that survive will likely be more efficient.

coopster_the_1st

pblakeney said:

Pross said:

kingstongraham said:

Last week's USA unemployment claims graph updated. No other recession comes close by this metric.

I suspect there hasn't been another instance of large sectors of employment just coming to a halt literally overnight. Also, I don't know what measures they put in place but maybe it almost encouraged people to be made unemployed. Our own Universal Credit applications are worrying as it seems that the job retention measures aren't being put in place quickly enough or employers aren't making use of them (which would be odd).

A lot of companies were at breaking point before this all kicked off. There will be a lot simply giving up the ghost.
I also suspect that a lot of slackers and deadwood may find that their services are no longer required.
On a positive note, those that survive will likely be more efficient.

Sounds like you are describing a survival of the fittest approach.

Maybe one for the irony thread

Stevo_666

pblakeney said:

Pross said:

kingstongraham said:

Last week's USA unemployment claims graph updated. No other recession comes close by this metric.

I suspect there hasn't been another instance of large sectors of employment just coming to a halt literally overnight. Also, I don't know what measures they put in place but maybe it almost encouraged people to be made unemployed. Our own Universal Credit applications are worrying as it seems that the job retention measures aren't being put in place quickly enough or employers aren't making use of them (which would be odd).

A lot of companies were at breaking point before this all kicked off. There will be a lot simply giving up the ghost.
I also suspect that a lot of slackers and deadwood may find that their services are no longer required.
On a positive note, those that survive will likely be more efficient.

Didn't you say not long ago that your job was at risk?

mr_goo

On the question about 'Essential Services' employees still permitted to travel to work. My gast had never been so flabbered to see a window cleaner rock up to my neighbours property at lunchtime and give the glazing the once over.
This is the kind of irresponsible behaviour from him and my elderly neighbours that will keep infection rates climbing and ultimately put increased pressure on an already straining NHS.

Pross

Isn't the rule work from home if at all possible? Working from home as a window cleaner is tricky. I made the same mistake of thinking it was supposed to just be those that are doing a job that is essential to the Covid response.

pblakeney

Can't see the problem unless your neighbour opened the window and high fived him.
Social distance maintained.

kingstonian

mr_goo said:

On the question about 'Essential Services' employees still permitted to travel to work. My gast had never been so flabbered to see a window cleaner rock up to my neighbours property at lunchtime and give the glazing the once over.
This is the kind of irresponsible behaviour from him and my elderly neighbours that will keep infection rates climbing and ultimately put increased pressure on an already straining NHS.

Is that massively different to a postman delivering a Boden catalogue to my house (one turned up this morning, blame my wife.....). If he is self sufficient, doesn’t need to speak with the house owners etc, I’m not sure there is an issue.

Pross

Hancock on testing to paraphrase - we haven't hit our target of 25,000 a day but we'll be testing 100,000 per day by the end of April.

I think I get what he is saying and that they are hoping the quicker blood test will be coming on stream shortly but it sounds muddled. Keeps adding that they are really clear when people are expressing confusion.

focuszing723

I just heard lots of people clapping all around from a distance for the people who work in the NHS. I found myself joining in.

I know it's their job, but they didn't sign up for this.

Thanks.

Pross

focuszing723 said:

I just heard lots of people clapping all around from a distance for the people who work in the NHS. I found myself joining in.

I know it's their job, but they didn't sign up for this.

Thanks.

We joined in a bit this week. Felt very self-conscious doing it and I'm not much of a fan of that sort of thing but wouldn't want people thinking we don't appreciate what they are doing.

focuszing723

Pross said:

focuszing723 said:

I just heard lots of people clapping all around from a distance for the people who work in the NHS. I found myself joining in.

I know it's their job, but they didn't sign up for this.

Thanks.

We joined in a bit this week. Felt very self-conscious doing it and I'm not much of a fan of that sort of thing but wouldn't want people thinking we don't appreciate what they are doing.

Yeah, same here.

mr_goo

kingstonian said:

mr_goo said:

On the question about 'Essential Services' employees still permitted to travel to work. My gast had never been so flabbered to see a window cleaner rock up to my neighbours property at lunchtime and give the glazing the once over.
This is the kind of irresponsible behaviour from him and my elderly neighbours that will keep infection rates climbing and ultimately put increased pressure on an already straining NHS.

Is that massively different to a postman delivering a Boden catalogue to my house (one turned up this morning, blame my wife.....). If he is self sufficient, doesn’t need to speak with the house owners etc, I’m not sure there is an issue.

Tell that to Mrs Goo who works in NHS. She would claim that your kind of 'not an issue' attitude will cause the death rate to spike. I would too.
I've noticed an increase in road traffic over the last 48 hours around my town. Have seen twin cab pickups with workers crammed in (no masks), old codgers continually driving out to walk their dogs in the forest or on beach.
This does have to stop. It's not forever. Otherwise the restrictions will tighten up and get extended.

focuszing723

mr_goo said:

kingstonian said:

mr_goo said:

On the question about 'Essential Services' employees still permitted to travel to work. My gast had never been so flabbered to see a window cleaner rock up to my neighbours property at lunchtime and give the glazing the once over.
This is the kind of irresponsible behaviour from him and my elderly neighbours that will keep infection rates climbing and ultimately put increased pressure on an already straining NHS.

Is that massively different to a postman delivering a Boden catalogue to my house (one turned up this morning, blame my wife.....). If he is self sufficient, doesn’t need to speak with the house owners etc, I’m not sure there is an issue.

Tell that to Mrs Goo who works in NHS. She would claim that your kind of 'not an issue' attitude will cause the death rate to spike. I would too.
I've noticed an increase in road traffic over the last 48 hours around my town. Have seen twin cab pickups with workers crammed in (no masks), old codgers continually driving out to walk their dogs in the forest or on beach.
This does have to stop. It's not forever. Otherwise the restrictions will tighten up and get extended.

Where I live it's much quieter than normal and judging by the response tonight people are giving the front line in the NHS their full support.

nickice

Interesting article in the Telegraph from a German virologist about the virus not being as easily transmitted as thought. It does make sense as if it were so easily transmitted, everyone would have had it.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/02/no-proof-coronavirus-can-spread-shopping-says-leading-german/

nickice

focuszing723 said:

I just heard lots of people clapping all around from a distance for the people who work in the NHS. I found myself joining in.

I know it's their job, but they didn't sign up for this.

Thanks.

My neighbour does it every night (we sometimes join in). I know she's a nurse and is supposed to be going back in September after maternity leave. I asked what department she worked in. I was flabbergasted to hear the answer was intensive care. This is at a time when non-specialist nurses are being transferred to intensive care. To be fair, she has four young kids but it just struck me as odd in a way I can't quite put my finger on.

TheBigBean

nickice said:

Interesting article in the Telegraph from a German virologist about the virus not being as easily transmitted as thought. It does make sense as if it were so easily transmitted, everyone would have had it.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/02/no-proof-coronavirus-can-spread-shopping-says-leading-german/

If you look at the initial super spreader in the UK. He managed to infect everyone in his chalet, but no one on the flight home or train home. I always thought that was quite significant. Noting of course, that it is a sample size of one.

kingstonian

mr_goo said:

kingstonian said:

mr_goo said:

On the question about 'Essential Services' employees still permitted to travel to work. My gast had never been so flabbered to see a window cleaner rock up to my neighbours property at lunchtime and give the glazing the once over.
This is the kind of irresponsible behaviour from him and my elderly neighbours that will keep infection rates climbing and ultimately put increased pressure on an already straining NHS.

Is that massively different to a postman delivering a Boden catalogue to my house (one turned up this morning, blame my wife.....). If he is self sufficient, doesn’t need to speak with the house owners etc, I’m not sure there is an issue.

Tell that to Mrs Goo who works in NHS. She would claim that your kind of 'not an issue' attitude will cause the death rate to spike. I would too.
I've noticed an increase in road traffic over the last 48 hours around my town. Have seen twin cab pickups with workers crammed in (no masks), old codgers continually driving out to walk their dogs in the forest or on beach.
This does have to stop. It's not forever. Otherwise the restrictions will tighten up and get extended.

I genuinely don’t see much difference between the window cleaner and a postman. Quite frankly, both being forcibly kept at home works just as well for me as both being allowed to continue their jobs. Happy for you to explain why It is an issue and will cause the death rate to spike.

Do agree with the other examples you cite.

nickice

TheBigBean said:

nickice said:

Interesting article in the Telegraph from a German virologist about the virus not being as easily transmitted as thought. It does make sense as if it were so easily transmitted, everyone would have had it.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/02/no-proof-coronavirus-can-spread-shopping-says-leading-german/

If you look at the initial super spreader in the UK. He managed to infect everyone in his chalet, but no one on the flight home or train home. I always thought that was quite significant. Noting of course, that it is a sample size of one.

The only hole in it is that did they definitely find out he hadn't infected anyone on the flight/train considering the level of symptomatic infections. I've thought for a while that people are overestimating how easy it is to catch (hence why you should save your masks and not use them when going for a walk)

focuszing723

kingstonian said:

mr_goo said:

kingstonian said:

mr_goo said:

On the question about 'Essential Services' employees still permitted to travel to work. My gast had never been so flabbered to see a window cleaner rock up to my neighbours property at lunchtime and give the glazing the once over.
This is the kind of irresponsible behaviour from him and my elderly neighbours that will keep infection rates climbing and ultimately put increased pressure on an already straining NHS.

Is that massively different to a postman delivering a Boden catalogue to my house (one turned up this morning, blame my wife.....). If he is self sufficient, doesn’t need to speak with the house owners etc, I’m not sure there is an issue.

Tell that to Mrs Goo who works in NHS. She would claim that your kind of 'not an issue' attitude will cause the death rate to spike. I would too.
I've noticed an increase in road traffic over the last 48 hours around my town. Have seen twin cab pickups with workers crammed in (no masks), old codgers continually driving out to walk their dogs in the forest or on beach.
This does have to stop. It's not forever. Otherwise the restrictions will tighten up and get extended.

I genuinely don’t see much difference between the window cleaner and a postman. Quite frankly, both being forcibly kept at home works just as well for me as both being allowed to continue their jobs. Happy for you to explain why It is an issue and will cause the death rate to spike.

Do agree with the other examples you cite.

A postman could be delivering letters from the GP's, Chemotherapy appointment, surgical appointment...

TheBigBean

nickice said:

TheBigBean said:

nickice said:

Interesting article in the Telegraph from a German virologist about the virus not being as easily transmitted as thought. It does make sense as if it were so easily transmitted, everyone would have had it.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/02/no-proof-coronavirus-can-spread-shopping-says-leading-german/

If you look at the initial super spreader in the UK. He managed to infect everyone in his chalet, but no one on the flight home or train home. I always thought that was quite significant. Noting of course, that it is a sample size of one.

The only hole in it is that did they definitely find out he hadn't infected anyone on the flight/train considering the level of symptomatic infections. I've thought for a while that people are overestimating how easy it is to catch (hence why you should save your masks and not use them when going for a walk)

I believe the track and trace process was quite effective and they tracked down, notified and tested a lot of the people. Maybe not everyone, but I think all those near him were tested.

nickice

TheBigBean said:

nickice said:

TheBigBean said:

nickice said:

Interesting article in the Telegraph from a German virologist about the virus not being as easily transmitted as thought. It does make sense as if it were so easily transmitted, everyone would have had it.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/02/no-proof-coronavirus-can-spread-shopping-says-leading-german/

If you look at the initial super spreader in the UK. He managed to infect everyone in his chalet, but no one on the flight home or train home. I always thought that was quite significant. Noting of course, that it is a sample size of one.

The only hole in it is that did they definitely find out he hadn't infected anyone on the flight/train considering the level of symptomatic infections. I've thought for a while that people are overestimating how easy it is to catch (hence why you should save your masks and not use them when going for a walk)

I believe the track and trace process was quite effective and they tracked down, notified and tested a lot of the people. Maybe not everyone, but I think all those near him were tested.

Good to know. I wonder how this would effect the severity of the lockdowns across Europe. I remember reading that community spread was less important than it simply spreading within households.

surrey_commuter

TheBigBean said:

nickice said:

Interesting article in the Telegraph from a German virologist about the virus not being as easily transmitted as thought. It does make sense as if it were so easily transmitted, everyone would have had it.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/02/no-proof-coronavirus-can-spread-shopping-says-leading-german/

If you look at the initial super spreader in the UK. He managed to infect everyone in his chalet, but no one on the flight home or train home. I always thought that was quite significant. Noting of course, that it is a sample size of one.

I was amazed how few patients he had seen, I might register with a surgery in Hove

tailwindhome

surrey_commuter

kingstonian said:

mr_goo said:

kingstonian said:

mr_goo said:

On the question about 'Essential Services' employees still permitted to travel to work. My gast had never been so flabbered to see a window cleaner rock up to my neighbours property at lunchtime and give the glazing the once over.
This is the kind of irresponsible behaviour from him and my elderly neighbours that will keep infection rates climbing and ultimately put increased pressure on an already straining NHS.

Is that massively different to a postman delivering a Boden catalogue to my house (one turned up this morning, blame my wife.....). If he is self sufficient, doesn’t need to speak with the house owners etc, I’m not sure there is an issue.

Tell that to Mrs Goo who works in NHS. She would claim that your kind of 'not an issue' attitude will cause the death rate to spike. I would too.
I've noticed an increase in road traffic over the last 48 hours around my town. Have seen twin cab pickups with workers crammed in (no masks), old codgers continually driving out to walk their dogs in the forest or on beach.
This does have to stop. It's not forever. Otherwise the restrictions will tighten up and get extended.

I genuinely don’t see much difference between the window cleaner and a postman. Quite frankly, both being forcibly kept at home works just as well for me as both being allowed to continue their jobs. Happy for you to explain why It is an issue and will cause the death rate to spike.

Do agree with the other examples you cite.

Day after lockdown a mobile windscreen chip guy called me back to say he was unable to do it. I did point out we could be having the same phone call with him stood on the drive giving me a quote and I could transfer money afterwards. Frankly I am surprised he has not changed his mind yet.

rick_chasey

Surprised the banning of cash bonuses in U.K. banks had gone undiscussed.

pblakeney

rick_chasey said:

Surprised the banning of cash bonuses in U.K. banks had gone undiscussed.

Page 35?

rick_chasey

It only got announced yesterday. Also just read banks now cannot request guarantees for personal loans...!