The big Coronavirus thread

pblakeney

pblakeney said:

"Bonuses" are going to be hit too.

Announced yesterday, but the writing was on the wall.

ddraver

It is weird to me why it is apparently communism to suggest that if you invest in a company, that company does poorly cos reasons, that said investors might not expect to be paid dividends and bonuses from that company...

DeVlaeminck

Decent weather forecast for the UK this weekend, especially Sunday, be a bit of a test for how well social distancing is really being respected.

rick_chasey

pblakeney said:

pblakeney said:

"Bonuses" are going to be hit too.

Announced yesterday, but the writing was on the wall.

I’m not sure you’re understanding.

Cash bonuses *are banned*

rick_chasey

kingstongraham said:

Last week's USA unemployment claims graph updated. No other recession comes close by this metric.

Yes, we thought 3.3m new jobless was an absolute shocker and it was and now that absurdly high record has been literally *doubled*

rick_chasey

Check out the gif

https://twitter.com/tibor/status/1245802634377867264?s=21

kingstongraham

Worth bearing in mind the different approaches in the USA and the UK. In the UK, you get more if your company keeps you on, and the government pays the company. In the USA, they changed the rules so unemployment is available to more, and the money has gone up. The numbers are shocking, but I'd be interested to know how many are furloughed here.

I really think the UK approach is better for when we come out of this thing.

Stevo_666

Here's quite a good article about understanding the death toll and the trade off between lives saved by lockdown type measures vs the impact of those on health and longevity:
https://bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654

It's something that has been debated a lot on here so quite relevant.

capt_slog

rick_chasey said:

Surprised the banning of cash bonuses in U.K. banks had gone undiscussed.

Along with the part nationalisation of the railways*. I suppose this is supporting a valuable infrastructure through the bad times so that it can dividends to it's shareholder once it's back on it's feet.

(*not seen it mentioned, but I haven't looked all the way through. Is there still a thread search button? can't find that either )

rick_chasey

Well italian PMI were expected to be appalling....and somehow they're even worse. (it measures the prevailing direction of economic trends in the manufacturing and service sectors)

rick_chasey

Guy I just had on the phone when it happened said "it shouldn't even exist" (referring to the number being in the teens)

focuszing723

capt_slog said:

rick_chasey said:

Surprised the banning of cash bonuses in U.K. banks had gone undiscussed.

Along with the part nationalisation of the railways*. I suppose this is supporting a valuable infrastructure through the bad times so that it can dividends to it's shareholder once it's back on it's feet.

(*not seen it mentioned, but I haven't looked all the way through. Is there still a thread search button? can't find that either )

Not sure if this is what you are after. If you look at all the page numbers in highlighted blue at the top of the page, there is a magnifying glass (black) to the right of the two arrows.

surrey_commuter

capt_slog said:

rick_chasey said:

Surprised the banning of cash bonuses in U.K. banks had gone undiscussed.

Along with the part nationalisation of the railways*. I suppose this is supporting a valuable infrastructure through the bad times so that it can dividends to it's shareholder once it's back on it's feet.

(*not seen it mentioned, but I haven't looked all the way through. Is there still a thread search button? can't find that either )

Nope it is stopping organisations which are a systemic risk to the economy from draining cash reserves safe in the knowledge that they will be bailed out because they pose a systemic risk to the system.

john80

There seems to be quite a lot of misinformation out there at the minute. My understanding if your business is not on the list of businesses to be closed as directed by the government then you can remain open if you can create a working environment that complies with the government guidelines on social distancing. A window cleaner who drives in a van to do his rounds to and from his house, does not interact with his customers in any way and takes money over the internet is clearly following the rules.

Should the guy that runs a boat building business go bankrupt because he can't transport a boat from a customers house to his workshop where he can work alone for the next two weeks to get some cash flow because people are misinterpreting the rules. There is a lot of people who either don't need money, a job or are getting the 80% because they work for a big financially robust company shitting from a great height on those that need some money to get by and can do so following the government guidelines.

capt_slog

focuszing723 said:

Not sure if this is what you are after. If you look at all the page numbers in highlighted blue at the top of the page, there is a magnifying glass (black) to the right of the two arrows.

So there is! Thank you.

focuszing723

capt_slog said:

focuszing723 said:

Not sure if this is what you are after. If you look at all the page numbers in highlighted blue at the top of the page, there is a magnifying glass (black) to the right of the two arrows.

So there is! Thank you.

No probs:)

ballysmate

Was it The Bean who posted something about how the virus spread from patient zero?
Could it be that everyone has been wrong about how it spreads?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8182767/Scientist-casts-doubt-coronavirus-spread.html



A trigger warning for those easily offended, it is the Mail.

rjsterry

ballysmate said:

Was it The Bean who posted something about how the virus spread from patient zero?
Could it be that everyone has been wrong about how it spreads?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8182767/Scientist-casts-doubt-coronavirus-spread.html



A trigger warning for those easily offended, it is the Mail.

Not really surprising that our understanding of a novel virus is evolving. Would be very useful if the transmission route can be more precisely understood as that would allow various measures and PPE to be more targeted.

nickice

ballysmate said:

Was it The Bean who posted something about how the virus spread from patient zero?
Could it be that everyone has been wrong about how it spreads?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8182767/Scientist-casts-doubt-coronavirus-spread.html



A trigger warning for those easily offended, it is the Mail.

You can also find it in the Telegraph. I posted the link last night. It's really interesting stuff and has pros and cons: It means that lockdown measures in much of mainland Europe may be unnecessarily strict but also might put paid to the 'everyone has had it' hypothesis...

nickice

rjsterry said:

ballysmate said:

Was it The Bean who posted something about how the virus spread from patient zero?
Could it be that everyone has been wrong about how it spreads?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8182767/Scientist-casts-doubt-coronavirus-spread.html



A trigger warning for those easily offended, it is the Mail.

Not really surprising that our understanding of a novel virus is evolving. Would be very useful if the transmission route can be more precisely understood as that would allow various measures and PPE to be more targeted.

And sitting in the park with your family might be possible again!

Stevo_666

Interesting article on Sweden going out on a limb with its approach in the Telegraph:
https://telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/02/swedes-rest-world-engaging-reckless-experiment/


"Faced with what many there believe will be a manageable illness, Sweden has decided – for now at least – that lockdown represents a greater risk

Now and again, my wife asks if it’s worth getting Swedish passports for our children. She has never got around to seeking British citizenship and I try to tell her that she’d better get her skates on before Priti Patel comes around asking for her papers. But the kids: how would a Swedish passport possibly benefit them? We run through what might go wrong for a country and, in every eventuality, Britain always seems the better bet. But now Swedes have a fresh argument: that their country might be the only one in Europe to come out of the corona crisis with the economy semi-intact.

There is, still, no lockdown there. Shopping centres remain open, as are most schools and firms. Many work from home, many don’t – all are at liberty to choose. When I called a friend in Stockholm to ask about the Swedish experiment, he was on his way to a book launch. He’s still taking his sons to football matches and is proud that Sweden is keeping calm and carrying on. To him there is no Swedish experiment: it’s the rest of Europe that is experimenting – by locking down economies in response to a virus which may prove to be no more deadly than flu.

It’s not that Sweden is in denial. It has had 5,466 confirmed cases, 282 deaths. Coronavirus has been found in a third of Stockholm’s (many) elderly care homes. But the debate there is still where the British debate was three weeks ago when the Prime Minister was resisting lockdown. This changed for Britain when Imperial College London published its study suggesting that avoiding lockdown could mean 250,000 deaths. This logic applies to Sweden – but the country of the Nobel Prize and the Karolinska Institute believes its own experts. They disagree with Imperial. They still see Covid-19 as a manageable risk.

The face of Sweden’s response has been Anders Tegnell, the state epidemiologist, who has held daily press conferences. Politicians have taken a back seat. His team have published their own assessment of the virus and its likely trajectory, showing it peaking with about 250 needing intensive care in Stockholm. The nation’s hospitals, he says, can cope. A 600-bed temporary ward is opening tomorrow, south of the city – and when it does, a quarter of all intensive care beds will be used. So for now, no reason to impose any more restrictions.

He urges caution, and Swedes are responding. Sixth formers and university students are learning from home. Sports fixtures continue, but with spectators more spaced out. Online meet-ups are replacing real ones, elbow-bumping (remember that?) replaced handshakes long ago. A naturally cautious country is taking Tegnell’s advice.


But crucially, he isn’t asking Swedes to trust him. Hospital data is published all the time, so Sweden’s “experiment” is being conducted in the open. Every time a patient is admitted, the data is updated on a Covid live website in striking detail. Average age: 60. Those with diabetes: 26 per cent. With cardiovascular or lung disease: 24 per cent. With at least one other underlying health condition: 77 per cent. Sweden is also updating its statistics to say if someone died from Covid, or of something else – but with Covid. This might reduce the “death” figure by two thirds.

If Tegnell’s analysis proves wrong, the public will be able to see it unravel on his dashboard. In which case, he says, he stands ready to tighten things up. Sweden’s famous love of transparency – you can look up your neighbour’s salary online if you feel the urge – is being used as a tool to foster trust. So far, it’s working: polls show that three quarters of Swedes support the strategy. The debate, overall, is very different from Britain’s. There is no shortage of epidemiologists in the Swedish press, backing Tegnell and denouncing the “desk-based theory” of the Imperial College study.

The Swedish prime minister is asked if he has ceded power to Tegnell: he doesn’t seem offended. Time will tell if we made the right choice, he says. Over here, this would be seen as dangerous, even heartless. Doesn’t he want to save lives? But Swedes are also looking at Britain’s surging unemployment, one in five small firms on the verge of going bust, children deprived of education, working mothers edged out of their job. That also hits lives.

And this case is being made, in Sweden, in a way it might not be over here. Kerstin Hessius, who runs a government pension fund, has been arguing that money vs lives is a false choice. Rising unemployment hits pensions directly,” she says. “What’s more, the tax base disappears – then we have to start cutting welfare.” And Swedes should be proud that “we have not extinguished the entire society, as many other countries have done”.


The risk is pretty obvious. Tegnell might soon find out that the virus spreads far faster than he thought – and by then it would be too late. Sweden’s hospitals would be overrun. A letter signed by 2,000 luminaries appeared in the papers this week saying it was time for Sweden to fall in line with the rest of the world. Åre, where I had hoped to be skiing next week, will shut its lifts the week leading up to Easter. Posters had started appearing in train stations, put up by locals, telling visitors they were endangering lives by refusing to stay home.

Sweden is not immune from what is, now, a fierce global recession. Unemployment has spiked and bailouts have started – albeit ones that will be easier to pay off than Britain’s. Swedes tend to have more of a sense of the economy as the engine of the welfare state: damage one, and you damage the other. You also damage public health, society, education and democracy. As one former politician told me, Sweden is not resisting lockdown in spite of being a strong social democratic state. It’s doing it because it’s a strong social democratic state.

For now, Stockholm is perhaps the last capital in Europe where there are signs of normal life – with shoppers, skateboarders, pensioners and commuters (albeit in far fewer numbers). They know who to thank for their liberty. On Vasagatan, there’s a poster taped to a wall saying “All power to Tegnell, state epidemiologist”. Whether they’ll be saying this at the end of the month is, of course, another question entirely."

rjsterry

nickice said:

rjsterry said:

ballysmate said:

Was it The Bean who posted something about how the virus spread from patient zero?
Could it be that everyone has been wrong about how it spreads?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8182767/Scientist-casts-doubt-coronavirus-spread.html



A trigger warning for those easily offended, it is the Mail.

Not really surprising that our understanding of a novel virus is evolving. Would be very useful if the transmission route can be more precisely understood as that would allow various measures and PPE to be more targeted.

And sitting in the park with your family might be possible again!

Maybe. Maybe your family is the most likely source of infection.

rjsterry

Stevo_666 said:

Interesting article on Sweden going out on a limb with its approach in the Telegraph:
https://telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/02/swedes-rest-world-engaging-reckless-experiment/


"Faced with what many there believe will be a manageable illness, Sweden has decided – for now at least – that lockdown represents a greater risk

Now and again, my wife asks if it’s worth getting Swedish passports for our children. She has never got around to seeking British citizenship and I try to tell her that she’d better get her skates on before Priti Patel comes around asking for her papers. But the kids: how would a Swedish passport possibly benefit them? We run through what might go wrong for a country and, in every eventuality, Britain always seems the better bet. But now Swedes have a fresh argument: that their country might be the only one in Europe to come out of the corona crisis with the economy semi-intact.

There is, still, no lockdown there. Shopping centres remain open, as are most schools and firms. Many work from home, many don’t – all are at liberty to choose. When I called a friend in Stockholm to ask about the Swedish experiment, he was on his way to a book launch. He’s still taking his sons to football matches and is proud that Sweden is keeping calm and carrying on. To him there is no Swedish experiment: it’s the rest of Europe that is experimenting – by locking down economies in response to a virus which may prove to be no more deadly than flu.

It’s not that Sweden is in denial. It has had 5,466 confirmed cases, 282 deaths. Coronavirus has been found in a third of Stockholm’s (many) elderly care homes. But the debate there is still where the British debate was three weeks ago when the Prime Minister was resisting lockdown. This changed for Britain when Imperial College London published its study suggesting that avoiding lockdown could mean 250,000 deaths. This logic applies to Sweden – but the country of the Nobel Prize and the Karolinska Institute believes its own experts. They disagree with Imperial. They still see Covid-19 as a manageable risk.

The face of Sweden’s response has been Anders Tegnell, the state epidemiologist, who has held daily press conferences. Politicians have taken a back seat. His team have published their own assessment of the virus and its likely trajectory, showing it peaking with about 250 needing intensive care in Stockholm. The nation’s hospitals, he says, can cope. A 600-bed temporary ward is opening tomorrow, south of the city – and when it does, a quarter of all intensive care beds will be used. So for now, no reason to impose any more restrictions.

He urges caution, and Swedes are responding. Sixth formers and university students are learning from home. Sports fixtures continue, but with spectators more spaced out. Online meet-ups are replacing real ones, elbow-bumping (remember that?) replaced handshakes long ago. A naturally cautious country is taking Tegnell’s advice.


But crucially, he isn’t asking Swedes to trust him. Hospital data is published all the time, so Sweden’s “experiment” is being conducted in the open. Every time a patient is admitted, the data is updated on a Covid live website in striking detail. Average age: 60. Those with diabetes: 26 per cent. With cardiovascular or lung disease: 24 per cent. With at least one other underlying health condition: 77 per cent. Sweden is also updating its statistics to say if someone died from Covid, or of something else – but with Covid. This might reduce the “death” figure by two thirds.

If Tegnell’s analysis proves wrong, the public will be able to see it unravel on his dashboard. In which case, he says, he stands ready to tighten things up. Sweden’s famous love of transparency – you can look up your neighbour’s salary online if you feel the urge – is being used as a tool to foster trust. So far, it’s working: polls show that three quarters of Swedes support the strategy. The debate, overall, is very different from Britain’s. There is no shortage of epidemiologists in the Swedish press, backing Tegnell and denouncing the “desk-based theory” of the Imperial College study.

The Swedish prime minister is asked if he has ceded power to Tegnell: he doesn’t seem offended. Time will tell if we made the right choice, he says. Over here, this would be seen as dangerous, even heartless. Doesn’t he want to save lives? But Swedes are also looking at Britain’s surging unemployment, one in five small firms on the verge of going bust, children deprived of education, working mothers edged out of their job. That also hits lives.

And this case is being made, in Sweden, in a way it might not be over here. Kerstin Hessius, who runs a government pension fund, has been arguing that money vs lives is a false choice. Rising unemployment hits pensions directly,” she says. “What’s more, the tax base disappears – then we have to start cutting welfare.” And Swedes should be proud that “we have not extinguished the entire society, as many other countries have done”.


The risk is pretty obvious. Tegnell might soon find out that the virus spreads far faster than he thought – and by then it would be too late. Sweden’s hospitals would be overrun. A letter signed by 2,000 luminaries appeared in the papers this week saying it was time for Sweden to fall in line with the rest of the world. Åre, where I had hoped to be skiing next week, will shut its lifts the week leading up to Easter. Posters had started appearing in train stations, put up by locals, telling visitors they were endangering lives by refusing to stay home.

Sweden is not immune from what is, now, a fierce global recession. Unemployment has spiked and bailouts have started – albeit ones that will be easier to pay off than Britain’s. Swedes tend to have more of a sense of the economy as the engine of the welfare state: damage one, and you damage the other. You also damage public health, society, education and democracy. As one former politician told me, Sweden is not resisting lockdown in spite of being a strong social democratic state. It’s doing it because it’s a strong social democratic state.

For now, Stockholm is perhaps the last capital in Europe where there are signs of normal life – with shoppers, skateboarders, pensioners and commuters (albeit in far fewer numbers). They know who to thank for their liberty. On Vasagatan, there’s a poster taped to a wall saying “All power to Tegnell, state epidemiologist”. Whether they’ll be saying this at the end of the month is, of course, another question entirely."

Interesting. Does emphasise that we still don't quite know what we are dealing with.

pangolin

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

Interesting article on Sweden going out on a limb with its approach in the Telegraph:
https://telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/02/swedes-rest-world-engaging-reckless-experiment/


"Faced with what many there believe will be a manageable illness, Sweden has decided – for now at least – that lockdown represents a greater risk

Now and again, my wife asks if it’s worth getting Swedish passports for our children. She has never got around to seeking British citizenship and I try to tell her that she’d better get her skates on before Priti Patel comes around asking for her papers. But the kids: how would a Swedish passport possibly benefit them? We run through what might go wrong for a country and, in every eventuality, Britain always seems the better bet. But now Swedes have a fresh argument: that their country might be the only one in Europe to come out of the corona crisis with the economy semi-intact.

There is, still, no lockdown there. Shopping centres remain open, as are most schools and firms. Many work from home, many don’t – all are at liberty to choose. When I called a friend in Stockholm to ask about the Swedish experiment, he was on his way to a book launch. He’s still taking his sons to football matches and is proud that Sweden is keeping calm and carrying on. To him there is no Swedish experiment: it’s the rest of Europe that is experimenting – by locking down economies in response to a virus which may prove to be no more deadly than flu.

It’s not that Sweden is in denial. It has had 5,466 confirmed cases, 282 deaths. Coronavirus has been found in a third of Stockholm’s (many) elderly care homes. But the debate there is still where the British debate was three weeks ago when the Prime Minister was resisting lockdown. This changed for Britain when Imperial College London published its study suggesting that avoiding lockdown could mean 250,000 deaths. This logic applies to Sweden – but the country of the Nobel Prize and the Karolinska Institute believes its own experts. They disagree with Imperial. They still see Covid-19 as a manageable risk.

The face of Sweden’s response has been Anders Tegnell, the state epidemiologist, who has held daily press conferences. Politicians have taken a back seat. His team have published their own assessment of the virus and its likely trajectory, showing it peaking with about 250 needing intensive care in Stockholm. The nation’s hospitals, he says, can cope. A 600-bed temporary ward is opening tomorrow, south of the city – and when it does, a quarter of all intensive care beds will be used. So for now, no reason to impose any more restrictions.

He urges caution, and Swedes are responding. Sixth formers and university students are learning from home. Sports fixtures continue, but with spectators more spaced out. Online meet-ups are replacing real ones, elbow-bumping (remember that?) replaced handshakes long ago. A naturally cautious country is taking Tegnell’s advice.


But crucially, he isn’t asking Swedes to trust him. Hospital data is published all the time, so Sweden’s “experiment” is being conducted in the open. Every time a patient is admitted, the data is updated on a Covid live website in striking detail. Average age: 60. Those with diabetes: 26 per cent. With cardiovascular or lung disease: 24 per cent. With at least one other underlying health condition: 77 per cent. Sweden is also updating its statistics to say if someone died from Covid, or of something else – but with Covid. This might reduce the “death” figure by two thirds.

If Tegnell’s analysis proves wrong, the public will be able to see it unravel on his dashboard. In which case, he says, he stands ready to tighten things up. Sweden’s famous love of transparency – you can look up your neighbour’s salary online if you feel the urge – is being used as a tool to foster trust. So far, it’s working: polls show that three quarters of Swedes support the strategy. The debate, overall, is very different from Britain’s. There is no shortage of epidemiologists in the Swedish press, backing Tegnell and denouncing the “desk-based theory” of the Imperial College study.

The Swedish prime minister is asked if he has ceded power to Tegnell: he doesn’t seem offended. Time will tell if we made the right choice, he says. Over here, this would be seen as dangerous, even heartless. Doesn’t he want to save lives? But Swedes are also looking at Britain’s surging unemployment, one in five small firms on the verge of going bust, children deprived of education, working mothers edged out of their job. That also hits lives.

And this case is being made, in Sweden, in a way it might not be over here. Kerstin Hessius, who runs a government pension fund, has been arguing that money vs lives is a false choice. Rising unemployment hits pensions directly,” she says. “What’s more, the tax base disappears – then we have to start cutting welfare.” And Swedes should be proud that “we have not extinguished the entire society, as many other countries have done”.


The risk is pretty obvious. Tegnell might soon find out that the virus spreads far faster than he thought – and by then it would be too late. Sweden’s hospitals would be overrun. A letter signed by 2,000 luminaries appeared in the papers this week saying it was time for Sweden to fall in line with the rest of the world. Åre, where I had hoped to be skiing next week, will shut its lifts the week leading up to Easter. Posters had started appearing in train stations, put up by locals, telling visitors they were endangering lives by refusing to stay home.

Sweden is not immune from what is, now, a fierce global recession. Unemployment has spiked and bailouts have started – albeit ones that will be easier to pay off than Britain’s. Swedes tend to have more of a sense of the economy as the engine of the welfare state: damage one, and you damage the other. You also damage public health, society, education and democracy. As one former politician told me, Sweden is not resisting lockdown in spite of being a strong social democratic state. It’s doing it because it’s a strong social democratic state.

For now, Stockholm is perhaps the last capital in Europe where there are signs of normal life – with shoppers, skateboarders, pensioners and commuters (albeit in far fewer numbers). They know who to thank for their liberty. On Vasagatan, there’s a poster taped to a wall saying “All power to Tegnell, state epidemiologist”. Whether they’ll be saying this at the end of the month is, of course, another question entirely."

Interesting. Does emphasise that we still don't quite know what we are dealing with.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Will be interesting to see where they are in a few days. At the moment they are obviously lower than the UK for cases and deaths (approx 10x less) but the charts are heading in a very similar trajectory.

Stevo_666

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

Interesting article on Sweden going out on a limb with its approach in the Telegraph:
https://telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/02/swedes-rest-world-engaging-reckless-experiment/


"Faced with what many there believe will be a manageable illness, Sweden has decided – for now at least – that lockdown represents a greater risk

Now and again, my wife asks if it’s worth getting Swedish passports for our children. She has never got around to seeking British citizenship and I try to tell her that she’d better get her skates on before Priti Patel comes around asking for her papers. But the kids: how would a Swedish passport possibly benefit them? We run through what might go wrong for a country and, in every eventuality, Britain always seems the better bet. But now Swedes have a fresh argument: that their country might be the only one in Europe to come out of the corona crisis with the economy semi-intact.

There is, still, no lockdown there. Shopping centres remain open, as are most schools and firms. Many work from home, many don’t – all are at liberty to choose. When I called a friend in Stockholm to ask about the Swedish experiment, he was on his way to a book launch. He’s still taking his sons to football matches and is proud that Sweden is keeping calm and carrying on. To him there is no Swedish experiment: it’s the rest of Europe that is experimenting – by locking down economies in response to a virus which may prove to be no more deadly than flu.

It’s not that Sweden is in denial. It has had 5,466 confirmed cases, 282 deaths. Coronavirus has been found in a third of Stockholm’s (many) elderly care homes. But the debate there is still where the British debate was three weeks ago when the Prime Minister was resisting lockdown. This changed for Britain when Imperial College London published its study suggesting that avoiding lockdown could mean 250,000 deaths. This logic applies to Sweden – but the country of the Nobel Prize and the Karolinska Institute believes its own experts. They disagree with Imperial. They still see Covid-19 as a manageable risk.

The face of Sweden’s response has been Anders Tegnell, the state epidemiologist, who has held daily press conferences. Politicians have taken a back seat. His team have published their own assessment of the virus and its likely trajectory, showing it peaking with about 250 needing intensive care in Stockholm. The nation’s hospitals, he says, can cope. A 600-bed temporary ward is opening tomorrow, south of the city – and when it does, a quarter of all intensive care beds will be used. So for now, no reason to impose any more restrictions.

He urges caution, and Swedes are responding. Sixth formers and university students are learning from home. Sports fixtures continue, but with spectators more spaced out. Online meet-ups are replacing real ones, elbow-bumping (remember that?) replaced handshakes long ago. A naturally cautious country is taking Tegnell’s advice.


But crucially, he isn’t asking Swedes to trust him. Hospital data is published all the time, so Sweden’s “experiment” is being conducted in the open. Every time a patient is admitted, the data is updated on a Covid live website in striking detail. Average age: 60. Those with diabetes: 26 per cent. With cardiovascular or lung disease: 24 per cent. With at least one other underlying health condition: 77 per cent. Sweden is also updating its statistics to say if someone died from Covid, or of something else – but with Covid. This might reduce the “death” figure by two thirds.

If Tegnell’s analysis proves wrong, the public will be able to see it unravel on his dashboard. In which case, he says, he stands ready to tighten things up. Sweden’s famous love of transparency – you can look up your neighbour’s salary online if you feel the urge – is being used as a tool to foster trust. So far, it’s working: polls show that three quarters of Swedes support the strategy. The debate, overall, is very different from Britain’s. There is no shortage of epidemiologists in the Swedish press, backing Tegnell and denouncing the “desk-based theory” of the Imperial College study.

The Swedish prime minister is asked if he has ceded power to Tegnell: he doesn’t seem offended. Time will tell if we made the right choice, he says. Over here, this would be seen as dangerous, even heartless. Doesn’t he want to save lives? But Swedes are also looking at Britain’s surging unemployment, one in five small firms on the verge of going bust, children deprived of education, working mothers edged out of their job. That also hits lives.

And this case is being made, in Sweden, in a way it might not be over here. Kerstin Hessius, who runs a government pension fund, has been arguing that money vs lives is a false choice. Rising unemployment hits pensions directly,” she says. “What’s more, the tax base disappears – then we have to start cutting welfare.” And Swedes should be proud that “we have not extinguished the entire society, as many other countries have done”.


The risk is pretty obvious. Tegnell might soon find out that the virus spreads far faster than he thought – and by then it would be too late. Sweden’s hospitals would be overrun. A letter signed by 2,000 luminaries appeared in the papers this week saying it was time for Sweden to fall in line with the rest of the world. Åre, where I had hoped to be skiing next week, will shut its lifts the week leading up to Easter. Posters had started appearing in train stations, put up by locals, telling visitors they were endangering lives by refusing to stay home.

Sweden is not immune from what is, now, a fierce global recession. Unemployment has spiked and bailouts have started – albeit ones that will be easier to pay off than Britain’s. Swedes tend to have more of a sense of the economy as the engine of the welfare state: damage one, and you damage the other. You also damage public health, society, education and democracy. As one former politician told me, Sweden is not resisting lockdown in spite of being a strong social democratic state. It’s doing it because it’s a strong social democratic state.

For now, Stockholm is perhaps the last capital in Europe where there are signs of normal life – with shoppers, skateboarders, pensioners and commuters (albeit in far fewer numbers). They know who to thank for their liberty. On Vasagatan, there’s a poster taped to a wall saying “All power to Tegnell, state epidemiologist”. Whether they’ll be saying this at the end of the month is, of course, another question entirely."

Interesting. Does emphasise that we still don't quite know what we are dealing with.

True.

Worth keeping an eye on Sweden, amongst others.

rjsterry

Stevo_666 said:

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

Interesting article on Sweden going out on a limb with its approach in the Telegraph:
https://telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/02/swedes-rest-world-engaging-reckless-experiment/


"Faced with what many there believe will be a manageable illness, Sweden has decided – for now at least – that lockdown represents a greater risk

Now and again, my wife asks if it’s worth getting Swedish passports for our children. She has never got around to seeking British citizenship and I try to tell her that she’d better get her skates on before Priti Patel comes around asking for her papers. But the kids: how would a Swedish passport possibly benefit them? We run through what might go wrong for a country and, in every eventuality, Britain always seems the better bet. But now Swedes have a fresh argument: that their country might be the only one in Europe to come out of the corona crisis with the economy semi-intact.

There is, still, no lockdown there. Shopping centres remain open, as are most schools and firms. Many work from home, many don’t – all are at liberty to choose. When I called a friend in Stockholm to ask about the Swedish experiment, he was on his way to a book launch. He’s still taking his sons to football matches and is proud that Sweden is keeping calm and carrying on. To him there is no Swedish experiment: it’s the rest of Europe that is experimenting – by locking down economies in response to a virus which may prove to be no more deadly than flu.

It’s not that Sweden is in denial. It has had 5,466 confirmed cases, 282 deaths. Coronavirus has been found in a third of Stockholm’s (many) elderly care homes. But the debate there is still where the British debate was three weeks ago when the Prime Minister was resisting lockdown. This changed for Britain when Imperial College London published its study suggesting that avoiding lockdown could mean 250,000 deaths. This logic applies to Sweden – but the country of the Nobel Prize and the Karolinska Institute believes its own experts. They disagree with Imperial. They still see Covid-19 as a manageable risk.

The face of Sweden’s response has been Anders Tegnell, the state epidemiologist, who has held daily press conferences. Politicians have taken a back seat. His team have published their own assessment of the virus and its likely trajectory, showing it peaking with about 250 needing intensive care in Stockholm. The nation’s hospitals, he says, can cope. A 600-bed temporary ward is opening tomorrow, south of the city – and when it does, a quarter of all intensive care beds will be used. So for now, no reason to impose any more restrictions.

He urges caution, and Swedes are responding. Sixth formers and university students are learning from home. Sports fixtures continue, but with spectators more spaced out. Online meet-ups are replacing real ones, elbow-bumping (remember that?) replaced handshakes long ago. A naturally cautious country is taking Tegnell’s advice.


But crucially, he isn’t asking Swedes to trust him. Hospital data is published all the time, so Sweden’s “experiment” is being conducted in the open. Every time a patient is admitted, the data is updated on a Covid live website in striking detail. Average age: 60. Those with diabetes: 26 per cent. With cardiovascular or lung disease: 24 per cent. With at least one other underlying health condition: 77 per cent. Sweden is also updating its statistics to say if someone died from Covid, or of something else – but with Covid. This might reduce the “death” figure by two thirds.

If Tegnell’s analysis proves wrong, the public will be able to see it unravel on his dashboard. In which case, he says, he stands ready to tighten things up. Sweden’s famous love of transparency – you can look up your neighbour’s salary online if you feel the urge – is being used as a tool to foster trust. So far, it’s working: polls show that three quarters of Swedes support the strategy. The debate, overall, is very different from Britain’s. There is no shortage of epidemiologists in the Swedish press, backing Tegnell and denouncing the “desk-based theory” of the Imperial College study.

The Swedish prime minister is asked if he has ceded power to Tegnell: he doesn’t seem offended. Time will tell if we made the right choice, he says. Over here, this would be seen as dangerous, even heartless. Doesn’t he want to save lives? But Swedes are also looking at Britain’s surging unemployment, one in five small firms on the verge of going bust, children deprived of education, working mothers edged out of their job. That also hits lives.

And this case is being made, in Sweden, in a way it might not be over here. Kerstin Hessius, who runs a government pension fund, has been arguing that money vs lives is a false choice. Rising unemployment hits pensions directly,” she says. “What’s more, the tax base disappears – then we have to start cutting welfare.” And Swedes should be proud that “we have not extinguished the entire society, as many other countries have done”.


The risk is pretty obvious. Tegnell might soon find out that the virus spreads far faster than he thought – and by then it would be too late. Sweden’s hospitals would be overrun. A letter signed by 2,000 luminaries appeared in the papers this week saying it was time for Sweden to fall in line with the rest of the world. Åre, where I had hoped to be skiing next week, will shut its lifts the week leading up to Easter. Posters had started appearing in train stations, put up by locals, telling visitors they were endangering lives by refusing to stay home.

Sweden is not immune from what is, now, a fierce global recession. Unemployment has spiked and bailouts have started – albeit ones that will be easier to pay off than Britain’s. Swedes tend to have more of a sense of the economy as the engine of the welfare state: damage one, and you damage the other. You also damage public health, society, education and democracy. As one former politician told me, Sweden is not resisting lockdown in spite of being a strong social democratic state. It’s doing it because it’s a strong social democratic state.

For now, Stockholm is perhaps the last capital in Europe where there are signs of normal life – with shoppers, skateboarders, pensioners and commuters (albeit in far fewer numbers). They know who to thank for their liberty. On Vasagatan, there’s a poster taped to a wall saying “All power to Tegnell, state epidemiologist”. Whether they’ll be saying this at the end of the month is, of course, another question entirely."

Interesting. Does emphasise that we still don't quite know what we are dealing with.

True.

Worth keeping an eye on Sweden, amongst others.

Much lower population density than ours (~25% of the UK). See also Canada. Outbreaks can only take hold where there are enough people interacting.

nickice

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

Interesting article on Sweden going out on a limb with its approach in the Telegraph:
https://telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/02/swedes-rest-world-engaging-reckless-experiment/


"Faced with what many there believe will be a manageable illness, Sweden has decided – for now at least – that lockdown represents a greater risk

Now and again, my wife asks if it’s worth getting Swedish passports for our children. She has never got around to seeking British citizenship and I try to tell her that she’d better get her skates on before Priti Patel comes around asking for her papers. But the kids: how would a Swedish passport possibly benefit them? We run through what might go wrong for a country and, in every eventuality, Britain always seems the better bet. But now Swedes have a fresh argument: that their country might be the only one in Europe to come out of the corona crisis with the economy semi-intact.

There is, still, no lockdown there. Shopping centres remain open, as are most schools and firms. Many work from home, many don’t – all are at liberty to choose. When I called a friend in Stockholm to ask about the Swedish experiment, he was on his way to a book launch. He’s still taking his sons to football matches and is proud that Sweden is keeping calm and carrying on. To him there is no Swedish experiment: it’s the rest of Europe that is experimenting – by locking down economies in response to a virus which may prove to be no more deadly than flu.

It’s not that Sweden is in denial. It has had 5,466 confirmed cases, 282 deaths. Coronavirus has been found in a third of Stockholm’s (many) elderly care homes. But the debate there is still where the British debate was three weeks ago when the Prime Minister was resisting lockdown. This changed for Britain when Imperial College London published its study suggesting that avoiding lockdown could mean 250,000 deaths. This logic applies to Sweden – but the country of the Nobel Prize and the Karolinska Institute believes its own experts. They disagree with Imperial. They still see Covid-19 as a manageable risk.

The face of Sweden’s response has been Anders Tegnell, the state epidemiologist, who has held daily press conferences. Politicians have taken a back seat. His team have published their own assessment of the virus and its likely trajectory, showing it peaking with about 250 needing intensive care in Stockholm. The nation’s hospitals, he says, can cope. A 600-bed temporary ward is opening tomorrow, south of the city – and when it does, a quarter of all intensive care beds will be used. So for now, no reason to impose any more restrictions.

He urges caution, and Swedes are responding. Sixth formers and university students are learning from home. Sports fixtures continue, but with spectators more spaced out. Online meet-ups are replacing real ones, elbow-bumping (remember that?) replaced handshakes long ago. A naturally cautious country is taking Tegnell’s advice.


But crucially, he isn’t asking Swedes to trust him. Hospital data is published all the time, so Sweden’s “experiment” is being conducted in the open. Every time a patient is admitted, the data is updated on a Covid live website in striking detail. Average age: 60. Those with diabetes: 26 per cent. With cardiovascular or lung disease: 24 per cent. With at least one other underlying health condition: 77 per cent. Sweden is also updating its statistics to say if someone died from Covid, or of something else – but with Covid. This might reduce the “death” figure by two thirds.

If Tegnell’s analysis proves wrong, the public will be able to see it unravel on his dashboard. In which case, he says, he stands ready to tighten things up. Sweden’s famous love of transparency – you can look up your neighbour’s salary online if you feel the urge – is being used as a tool to foster trust. So far, it’s working: polls show that three quarters of Swedes support the strategy. The debate, overall, is very different from Britain’s. There is no shortage of epidemiologists in the Swedish press, backing Tegnell and denouncing the “desk-based theory” of the Imperial College study.

The Swedish prime minister is asked if he has ceded power to Tegnell: he doesn’t seem offended. Time will tell if we made the right choice, he says. Over here, this would be seen as dangerous, even heartless. Doesn’t he want to save lives? But Swedes are also looking at Britain’s surging unemployment, one in five small firms on the verge of going bust, children deprived of education, working mothers edged out of their job. That also hits lives.

And this case is being made, in Sweden, in a way it might not be over here. Kerstin Hessius, who runs a government pension fund, has been arguing that money vs lives is a false choice. Rising unemployment hits pensions directly,” she says. “What’s more, the tax base disappears – then we have to start cutting welfare.” And Swedes should be proud that “we have not extinguished the entire society, as many other countries have done”.


The risk is pretty obvious. Tegnell might soon find out that the virus spreads far faster than he thought – and by then it would be too late. Sweden’s hospitals would be overrun. A letter signed by 2,000 luminaries appeared in the papers this week saying it was time for Sweden to fall in line with the rest of the world. Åre, where I had hoped to be skiing next week, will shut its lifts the week leading up to Easter. Posters had started appearing in train stations, put up by locals, telling visitors they were endangering lives by refusing to stay home.

Sweden is not immune from what is, now, a fierce global recession. Unemployment has spiked and bailouts have started – albeit ones that will be easier to pay off than Britain’s. Swedes tend to have more of a sense of the economy as the engine of the welfare state: damage one, and you damage the other. You also damage public health, society, education and democracy. As one former politician told me, Sweden is not resisting lockdown in spite of being a strong social democratic state. It’s doing it because it’s a strong social democratic state.

For now, Stockholm is perhaps the last capital in Europe where there are signs of normal life – with shoppers, skateboarders, pensioners and commuters (albeit in far fewer numbers). They know who to thank for their liberty. On Vasagatan, there’s a poster taped to a wall saying “All power to Tegnell, state epidemiologist”. Whether they’ll be saying this at the end of the month is, of course, another question entirely."

Interesting. Does emphasise that we still don't quite know what we are dealing with.

True.

Worth keeping an eye on Sweden, amongst others.

Much lower population density than ours (~25% of the UK). See also Canada. Outbreaks can only take hold where there are enough people interacting.

But Stockholm has a higher population density than London. It's hard to use population density of a country overall as Sweden (like Scotland and Canada, for example) has low population density because vast parts of the country are sparsely inhabited.

TheBigBean

Stevo_666 said:

working mothers edged out of their job.

I know I will sound like a Guardian reading lover of political correctness, but is it really that hard to write "working parents.."?

Edit comment about the Telegraph not Stevo 666

surrey_commuter

Media seem to be apathetic about Hancock reducing the promised level of tests from 250k to 100k

From the article it seems that Sweden is where we were in urging people to limit socialising. Could it be that their choice of messenger is crucial to the different outcome?

coopster_the_1st

kingstongraham said:

Worth bearing in mind the different approaches in the USA and the UK. In the UK, you get more if your company keeps you on, and the government pays the company. In the USA, they changed the rules so unemployment is available to more, and the money has gone up. The numbers are shocking, but I'd be interested to know how many are furloughed here.

I really think the UK approach is better for when we come out of this thing.

11 million people have stopped work according to a Bank of America study. The furloughed number is going to be huge

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/03/31/11-million-stop-working-coronavirus-puts-economy-hold/