The big Coronavirus thread

TheBigBean

I'm not sure much will change. It was already the case that a lot of the more senior (or old) people worked from home some days whilst the younger generation came in every day. I don't see much changing although I've worked for a flexible company for years.

rick_chasey

blazing_saddles said:

rick_chasey said:

I do think the world of Mon-Fri in the office is going to be *a lot* smaller.

I‘ve spoken to maybe 300 people since lockdown started, mainly in the U.K. but also across Western Europe and not a single person I can remember intends to go back Mon-Fri in the office once there is no corona.

stats I’ve seen put professional services with something like only 10% looking to return to Mon-Fri in the office with well over 2/3s looking to do 2 days *or less* in the office.

I do think it’s a massive shift.

If that really is going to be the new norm and not the privileged situation it sounds like, I wonder what effect it will have on the value of real estate in the city?

Yup, gonna get smashed.

rick_chasey

Jeremy.89 said:

Pross said:

rick_chasey said:

I do think the world of Mon-Fri in the office is going to be *a lot* smaller.

I‘ve spoken to maybe 300 people since lockdown started, mainly in the U.K. but also across Western Europe and not a single person I can remember intends to go back Mon-Fri in the office once there is no corona.

stats I’ve seen put professional services with something like only 10% looking to return to Mon-Fri in the office with well over 2/3s looking to do 2 days *or less* in the office.

I do think it’s a massive shift.

I think that would be a good thing in many ways and I haven't worked 5 days a week in an office for over 3 years. However, I think you might be extrapolating too much from what I assume are fairly high end jobs in a narrow sector. We reopened out offices last week and several people were very keen to get back albeit they can only do 2 days a week at the moment. Our MD, whilst being quite supportive of flexibility, still likes having most people in the office to share ideas and talk things through. I suspect that's even more the case in more creative office based roles. Despite the inspirational Microsoft ads I don't think sharing ideas works so well when people are remote from each other.

Have you noticed a bit of a honeymoon for remote working? I certainly think it's nice as a change of pace, but you miss all kinds of comunication between groups that would usually happen.

Do you want to go back to Mon-Fri?

I'm quite happy being a tw@t if the firm could let me.

coopster_the_1st

kingstongraham said:

coopster_the_1st said:

kingstongraham said:

coopster_the_1st said:

kingstongraham said:

coopster_the_1st said:

The fear of death follows from the fear of life. A man who lives fully is prepared to die at any time.

You ok?

All OK here

Glad to hear it.

How are you post C19?

Much improvement?

Still tired, trying to get a bit more activity in, so I can see if it is covid or just lack of fitness that has me exhausted after exercise. Nothing more than about 15 minutes at minimal effort still. It really sucks.

It won't be lack of fitness so personally I would stop knocking on this door, the door will open naturally. Your body has gone through a trauma and is still in protection mode, probably as much mentally as physically. Every time you exercise it takes it as an attack. Increasingly long walks, if possible, would be better than cycling, as you can only exercise so hard from walking, whereas you know mentally you can operate at a much higher intensity from cycling.

Take it easy, you'll get there

TheBigBean

In today's episode of mask watch, I saw none. Lots of cyclists cakestopping with no social distancing and lots of workmen, but not a single mask.

rick_chasey

TheBigBean said:

I'm not sure much will change. It was already the case that a lot of the more senior (or old) people worked from home some days whilst the younger generation came in every day. I don't see much changing although I've worked for a flexible company for years.

Really not.

TheBigBean

rick_chasey said:

TheBigBean said:

I'm not sure much will change. It was already the case that a lot of the more senior (or old) people worked from home some days whilst the younger generation came in every day. I don't see much changing although I've worked for a flexible company for years.

Really not.

Guess it depends where you work. 15 years ago my old boss told me that five days in the office in a week meant divorce. You haven't come across a lot of people with a pied-à-terre and the country house?

Jeremy.89

rick_chasey said:

Jeremy.89 said:

Pross said:

rick_chasey said:

I do think the world of Mon-Fri in the office is going to be *a lot* smaller.

I‘ve spoken to maybe 300 people since lockdown started, mainly in the U.K. but also across Western Europe and not a single person I can remember intends to go back Mon-Fri in the office once there is no corona.

stats I’ve seen put professional services with something like only 10% looking to return to Mon-Fri in the office with well over 2/3s looking to do 2 days *or less* in the office.

I do think it’s a massive shift.

I think that would be a good thing in many ways and I haven't worked 5 days a week in an office for over 3 years. However, I think you might be extrapolating too much from what I assume are fairly high end jobs in a narrow sector. We reopened out offices last week and several people were very keen to get back albeit they can only do 2 days a week at the moment. Our MD, whilst being quite supportive of flexibility, still likes having most people in the office to share ideas and talk things through. I suspect that's even more the case in more creative office based roles. Despite the inspirational Microsoft ads I don't think sharing ideas works so well when people are remote from each other.

Have you noticed a bit of a honeymoon for remote working? I certainly think it's nice as a change of pace, but you miss all kinds of comunication between groups that would usually happen.

Do you want to go back to Mon-Fri?

I'm quite happy being a tw@t if the firm could let me.

Yea, quite happy to have the break between my work and home. Helps that I don't have a super long commute though.

kingstongraham

coopster_the_1st said:

kingstongraham said:

coopster_the_1st said:

kingstongraham said:

coopster_the_1st said:

kingstongraham said:

coopster_the_1st said:

The fear of death follows from the fear of life. A man who lives fully is prepared to die at any time.

You ok?

All OK here

Glad to hear it.

How are you post C19?

Much improvement?

Still tired, trying to get a bit more activity in, so I can see if it is covid or just lack of fitness that has me exhausted after exercise. Nothing more than about 15 minutes at minimal effort still. It really sucks.

It won't be lack of fitness so personally I would stop knocking on this door, the door will open naturally. Your body has gone through a trauma and is still in protection mode, probably as much mentally as physically. Every time you exercise it takes it as an attack. Increasingly long walks, if possible, would be better than cycling, as you can only exercise so hard from walking, whereas you know mentally you can operate at a much higher intensity from cycling.

Take it easy, you'll get there

Cheers, makes sense. I went for a run for the first time in months and put in a solid 2km in 15 minutes(!), but not planning that again as I couldn't keep my HR down under 140 which I don't think would be my norm.

I'll stick with walking.

coopster_the_1st

So, according to PHE rules, and it is PH England only, if you have at any time tested positive for C19, let's say March, but got hit by bus yesterday and died, your death would be recorded as a C19 death and thus registered in the daily death stats

It's almost like they are having to massage the numbers to justify what they can now see as a previous overreaction.

coopster_the_1st

kingstongraham said:

coopster_the_1st said:

kingstongraham said:

coopster_the_1st said:

kingstongraham said:

coopster_the_1st said:

kingstongraham said:

coopster_the_1st said:

The fear of death follows from the fear of life. A man who lives fully is prepared to die at any time.

You ok?

All OK here

Glad to hear it.

How are you post C19?

Much improvement?

Still tired, trying to get a bit more activity in, so I can see if it is covid or just lack of fitness that has me exhausted after exercise. Nothing more than about 15 minutes at minimal effort still. It really sucks.

It won't be lack of fitness so personally I would stop knocking on this door, the door will open naturally. Your body has gone through a trauma and is still in protection mode, probably as much mentally as physically. Every time you exercise it takes it as an attack. Increasingly long walks, if possible, would be better than cycling, as you can only exercise so hard from walking, whereas you know mentally you can operate at a much higher intensity from cycling.

Take it easy, you'll get there

Cheers, makes sense. I went for a run for the first time in months and put in a solid 2km in 15 minutes(!), but not planning that again as I couldn't keep my HR down under 140 which I don't think would be my norm.

I'll stick with walking.

Wow! Well with that stubbornness you'll come back fitter.

Think of this part as an extreme version of base fitness training. So 2 hours walking is better than 15 minutes jogging!

rick_chasey

TheBigBean said:

rick_chasey said:

TheBigBean said:

I'm not sure much will change. It was already the case that a lot of the more senior (or old) people worked from home some days whilst the younger generation came in every day. I don't see much changing although I've worked for a flexible company for years.

Really not.

Guess it depends where you work. 15 years ago my old boss told me that five days in the office in a week meant divorce. You haven't come across a lot of people with a pied-à-terre and the country house?

Genuinely, I've only ever seen it in people who are over 55 and usually call the shots themselves.

Like I said, my sample size isn't that small, albeit in one industry.

Also, if you read various reports the proportions are similar in terms of how many want to go back to Mon-Fri.

kingstongraham

coopster_the_1st said:

So, according to PHE rules, and it is PH England only, if you have at any time tested positive for C19, let's say March, but got hit by bus yesterday and died, your death would be recorded as a C19 death and thus registered in the daily death stats

It's almost like they are having to massage the numbers to justify what they can now see as a previous overreaction.

Link?

coopster_the_1st

kingstongraham said:

coopster_the_1st said:

So, according to PHE rules, and it is PH England only, if you have at any time tested positive for C19, let's say March, but got hit by bus yesterday and died, your death would be recorded as a C19 death and thus registered in the daily death stats

It's almost like they are having to massage the numbers to justify what they can now see as a previous overreaction.

Link?

Sounds like there is some serious backside covering going on

https://twitter.com/JoeMurphyLondon/status/1284039715415613440

This has been called out for a while now but the usual lot have always shut it down!

coopster_the_1st

TheBigBean said:

I'm not sure much will change. It was already the case that a lot of the more senior (or old) people worked from home some days whilst the younger generation came in every day. I don't see much changing although I've worked for a flexible company for years.

I know of one 3,000+ organisation that is looking at its office lease contracts for ways to end the leases.

rjsterry

rick_chasey said:

TheBigBean said:

rick_chasey said:

TheBigBean said:

I'm not sure much will change. It was already the case that a lot of the more senior (or old) people worked from home some days whilst the younger generation came in every day. I don't see much changing although I've worked for a flexible company for years.

Really not.

Guess it depends where you work. 15 years ago my old boss told me that five days in the office in a week meant divorce. You haven't come across a lot of people with a pied-à-terre and the country house?

Genuinely, I've only ever seen it in people who are over 55 and usually call the shots themselves.

Like I said, my sample size isn't that small, albeit in one industry.

Also, if you read various reports the proportions are similar in terms of how many want to go back to Mon-Fri.

If I'm correct about which industry that is, they're not renowned for a healthy work/life balance.

rick_chasey

rjsterry said:

rick_chasey said:

TheBigBean said:

rick_chasey said:

TheBigBean said:

I'm not sure much will change. It was already the case that a lot of the more senior (or old) people worked from home some days whilst the younger generation came in every day. I don't see much changing although I've worked for a flexible company for years.

Really not.

Guess it depends where you work. 15 years ago my old boss told me that five days in the office in a week meant divorce. You haven't come across a lot of people with a pied-à-terre and the country house?

Genuinely, I've only ever seen it in people who are over 55 and usually call the shots themselves.

Like I said, my sample size isn't that small, albeit in one industry.

Also, if you read various reports the proportions are similar in terms of how many want to go back to Mon-Fri.

If I'm correct about which industry that is, they're not renowned for a healthy work/life balance.

Professional services have a presenteeism culture, who knew!

rjsterry

coopster_the_1st said:

kingstongraham said:

coopster_the_1st said:

So, according to PHE rules, and it is PH England only, if you have at any time tested positive for C19, let's say March, but got hit by bus yesterday and died, your death would be recorded as a C19 death and thus registered in the daily death stats

It's almost like they are having to massage the numbers to justify what they can now see as a previous overreaction.

Link?

Sounds like there is some serious backside covering going on

https://twitter.com/JoeMurphyLondon/status/1284039715415613440

This has been called out for a while now but the usual lot have always shut it down!

Didn't we have this argument months ago. There was a fair amount of comment on how unreliable the numbers were. The official numbers have all sorts of built-in reporting errors, so excess mortality is a better measure. The final counts might vary a bit from the current numbers but if there is a significant difference (tens of thousands) then what would you suggest has been killing off them off instead?

Jeremy.89

I do wonder if there's a corellation between roles that are ripe for an increase in automation and roles that can be done effectively away from home.

Possibly only a weak one.

rick_chasey

Jeremy.89 said:

I do wonder if there's a corellation between roles that are ripe for an increase in automation and roles that can be done effectively away from home.

Possibly only a weak one.

Would have thought it was inverse, no?

surrey_commuter

rjsterry said:

rick_chasey said:

TheBigBean said:

rick_chasey said:

TheBigBean said:

I'm not sure much will change. It was already the case that a lot of the more senior (or old) people worked from home some days whilst the younger generation came in every day. I don't see much changing although I've worked for a flexible company for years.

Really not.

Guess it depends where you work. 15 years ago my old boss told me that five days in the office in a week meant divorce. You haven't come across a lot of people with a pied-à-terre and the country house?

Genuinely, I've only ever seen it in people who are over 55 and usually call the shots themselves.

Like I said, my sample size isn't that small, albeit in one industry.

Also, if you read various reports the proportions are similar in terms of how many want to go back to Mon-Fri.

If I'm correct about which industry that is, they're not renowned for a healthy work/life balance.

if we are talking FS then anybody older than 55 is still working because they want to

coopster_the_1st

rjsterry said:

coopster_the_1st said:

kingstongraham said:

coopster_the_1st said:

So, according to PHE rules, and it is PH England only, if you have at any time tested positive for C19, let's say March, but got hit by bus yesterday and died, your death would be recorded as a C19 death and thus registered in the daily death stats

It's almost like they are having to massage the numbers to justify what they can now see as a previous overreaction.

Link?

Sounds like there is some serious backside covering going on

https://twitter.com/JoeMurphyLondon/status/1284039715415613440

This has been called out for a while now but the usual lot have always shut it down!

Didn't we have this argument months ago. There was a fair amount of comment on how unreliable the numbers were. The official numbers have all sorts of built-in reporting errors, so excess mortality is a better measure. The final counts might vary a bit from the current numbers but if there is a significant difference (tens of thousands) then what would you suggest has been killing off them off instead?

All possibilities between the anxiety and stress of opening the front door because of the hysteria of fear over C19, to refusing to seek medical treatment for things such as heart attacks, strokes, etc

tailwindhome

rjsterry said:

coopster_the_1st said:

kingstongraham said:

coopster_the_1st said:

So, according to PHE rules, and it is PH England only, if you have at any time tested positive for C19, let's say March, but got hit by bus yesterday and died, your death would be recorded as a C19 death and thus registered in the daily death stats

It's almost like they are having to massage the numbers to justify what they can now see as a previous overreaction.

Link?

Sounds like there is some serious backside covering going on

https://twitter.com/JoeMurphyLondon/status/1284039715415613440

This has been called out for a while now but the usual lot have always shut it down!

Didn't we have this argument months ago. There was a fair amount of comment on how unreliable the numbers were. The official numbers have all sorts of built-in reporting errors, so excess mortality is a better measure. The final counts might vary a bit from the current numbers but if there is a significant difference (tens of thousands) then what would you suggest has been killing off them off instead?

Seems to me to be a reasonable method of counting initially but becoming let so as time goes on.

Stats nerds on Twitter estimating the impact currently at about 22 people a week.
So not ideal but we're not 'recouping' 65,000 deaths

May explain some of the 'negative' excess deaths

kingstongraham

coopster_the_1st said:

kingstongraham said:

coopster_the_1st said:

So, according to PHE rules, and it is PH England only, if you have at any time tested positive for C19, let's say March, but got hit by bus yesterday and died, your death would be recorded as a C19 death and thus registered in the daily death stats

It's almost like they are having to massage the numbers to justify what they can now see as a previous overreaction.

Link?

Sounds like there is some serious backside covering going on

https://twitter.com/JoeMurphyLondon/status/1284039715415613440

This has been called out for a while now but the usual lot have always shut it down!

That's quite a big c0ck up.

Any idea whether that would affect the figures on ONS? These are "based on any mention of COVID-19 on the death certificate".

My guess is not, as the daily announced numbers for the last two weeks of June are higher than the registered deaths by 309. You'd expect that gap to have increased over the following two weeks.

TheBigBean

rjsterry said:

coopster_the_1st said:

kingstongraham said:

coopster_the_1st said:

So, according to PHE rules, and it is PH England only, if you have at any time tested positive for C19, let's say March, but got hit by bus yesterday and died, your death would be recorded as a C19 death and thus registered in the daily death stats

It's almost like they are having to massage the numbers to justify what they can now see as a previous overreaction.

Link?

Sounds like there is some serious backside covering going on

https://twitter.com/JoeMurphyLondon/status/1284039715415613440

This has been called out for a while now but the usual lot have always shut it down!

Didn't we have this argument months ago. There was a fair amount of comment on how unreliable the numbers were. The official numbers have all sorts of built-in reporting errors, so excess mortality is a better measure. The final counts might vary a bit from the current numbers but if there is a significant difference (tens of thousands) then what would you suggest has been killing off them off instead?

@kingstongraham knocked up an excellent graph of deaths by year. It may be an easy metric, but it is also volatile without the help of C-19.

rjsterry

coopster_the_1st said:

rjsterry said:

coopster_the_1st said:

kingstongraham said:

coopster_the_1st said:

So, according to PHE rules, and it is PH England only, if you have at any time tested positive for C19, let's say March, but got hit by bus yesterday and died, your death would be recorded as a C19 death and thus registered in the daily death stats

It's almost like they are having to massage the numbers to justify what they can now see as a previous overreaction.

Link?

Sounds like there is some serious backside covering going on

https://twitter.com/JoeMurphyLondon/status/1284039715415613440

This has been called out for a while now but the usual lot have always shut it down!

Didn't we have this argument months ago. There was a fair amount of comment on how unreliable the numbers were. The official numbers have all sorts of built-in reporting errors, so excess mortality is a better measure. The final counts might vary a bit from the current numbers but if there is a significant difference (tens of thousands) then what would you suggest has been killing off them off instead?

All possibilities between the anxiety and stress of opening the front door because of the hysteria of fear over C19, to refusing to seek medical treatment for things such as heart attacks, strokes, etc

Additional tens of thousands of these above baseline? Seems unlikely to me. Absolutely no problem in going back to the death certs and recounting, but would be surprised if this moves the dial by much.

Jeremy.89

rick_chasey said:

Jeremy.89 said:

I do wonder if there's a corellation between roles that are ripe for an increase in automation and roles that can be done effectively away from home.

Possibly only a weak one.

Would have thought it was inverse, no?

I feel like geniuniely creative tasks, brainstorming, design etc are enhanced by office presence, and the tasks that are essentially drudgery can be done anywhere.

But I appreciate that this might vary massively between industries.

kingstongraham

rjsterry said:

coopster_the_1st said:

rjsterry said:

coopster_the_1st said:

kingstongraham said:

coopster_the_1st said:

So, according to PHE rules, and it is PH England only, if you have at any time tested positive for C19, let's say March, but got hit by bus yesterday and died, your death would be recorded as a C19 death and thus registered in the daily death stats

It's almost like they are having to massage the numbers to justify what they can now see as a previous overreaction.

Link?

Sounds like there is some serious backside covering going on

https://twitter.com/JoeMurphyLondon/status/1284039715415613440

This has been called out for a while now but the usual lot have always shut it down!

Didn't we have this argument months ago. There was a fair amount of comment on how unreliable the numbers were. The official numbers have all sorts of built-in reporting errors, so excess mortality is a better measure. The final counts might vary a bit from the current numbers but if there is a significant difference (tens of thousands) then what would you suggest has been killing off them off instead?

All possibilities between the anxiety and stress of opening the front door because of the hysteria of fear over C19, to refusing to seek medical treatment for things such as heart attacks, strokes, etc

Additional tens of thousands of these above baseline? Seems unlikely to me. Absolutely no problem in going back to the death certs and recounting, but would be surprised if this moves the dial by much.

I'd be interested in whether it affects the ONS figures because that would impact how many of the deaths in the last few weeks could be seen as inevitable deaths that were "brought forward" by coronavirus.

coopster_the_1st

kingstongraham said:

coopster_the_1st said:

kingstongraham said:

coopster_the_1st said:

So, according to PHE rules, and it is PH England only, if you have at any time tested positive for C19, let's say March, but got hit by bus yesterday and died, your death would be recorded as a C19 death and thus registered in the daily death stats

It's almost like they are having to massage the numbers to justify what they can now see as a previous overreaction.

Link?

Sounds like there is some serious backside covering going on

https://twitter.com/JoeMurphyLondon/status/1284039715415613440

This has been called out for a while now but the usual lot have always shut it down!

That's quite a big c0ck up.

Any idea whether that would affect the figures on ONS? These are "based on any mention of COVID-19 on the death certificate".

My guess is not, as the daily announced numbers for the last two weeks of June are higher than the registered deaths by 309. You'd expect that gap to have increased over the following two weeks.

It's not a c0ck up, but an intentional inflating of the deaths. This then leads to more media hysteria, more extreme policy responses and more collateral deaths.

With the lowering of C19 overall deaths, it is going to make the excess deaths look even worse and thus shine more light and need explanations on these excess deaths.

All it is doing, is the data is now making it look more and more like a huge policy overreaction

coopster_the_1st

kingstongraham said:

rjsterry said:

coopster_the_1st said:

rjsterry said:

coopster_the_1st said:

kingstongraham said:

coopster_the_1st said:

So, according to PHE rules, and it is PH England only, if you have at any time tested positive for C19, let's say March, but got hit by bus yesterday and died, your death would be recorded as a C19 death and thus registered in the daily death stats

It's almost like they are having to massage the numbers to justify what they can now see as a previous overreaction.

Link?

Sounds like there is some serious backside covering going on

https://twitter.com/JoeMurphyLondon/status/1284039715415613440

This has been called out for a while now but the usual lot have always shut it down!

Didn't we have this argument months ago. There was a fair amount of comment on how unreliable the numbers were. The official numbers have all sorts of built-in reporting errors, so excess mortality is a better measure. The final counts might vary a bit from the current numbers but if there is a significant difference (tens of thousands) then what would you suggest has been killing off them off instead?

All possibilities between the anxiety and stress of opening the front door because of the hysteria of fear over C19, to refusing to seek medical treatment for things such as heart attacks, strokes, etc

Additional tens of thousands of these above baseline? Seems unlikely to me. Absolutely no problem in going back to the death certs and recounting, but would be surprised if this moves the dial by much.

I'd be interested in whether it affects the ONS figures because that would impact how many of the deaths in the last few weeks could be seen as inevitable deaths that were "brought forward" by coronavirus.

How are we going to account for the collateral damage deaths in this?

This is not going to be uncovered by looking at the numbers in the short term.