The big Coronavirus thread

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  • blazing_saddles
    blazing_saddles Posts: 21,820
    R number 'lower than thought' before lockdown eased in England

    The rate of coronavirus infections in the community in England was significantly reduced before lockdown eased in May, according to a government-commissioned study.

    Imperial College research showed there were, on average, 13 positive cases for every 10,000 people.

    This means the R number was lower than thought at 0.57, the study suggests.

    But this does not take into account infections in care homes and hospitals at the time.

    Calculated using this information, the national overall reproduction number - or R - was estimated to be between 0.7 and 1 during May.

    The study of 120,000 volunteers also suggested young adults aged 18 to 24 were more likely to test positive.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53414363
    "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,743
    Good.
    _
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 40,605
    That might explain why we haven't experienced a fresh spike (outside of a few localised outbreaks) despite the relaxations.
  • kingstonian
    kingstonian Posts: 2,847
    Yep, thought that news was interesting. I’d much rather we erred on the side of caution when it comes to estimating the R number.
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 18,943
    Ireland not happy with their R number.
    Pushing phase 4 items, including reopening 'wet' pubs back to August
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 17,942
    edited July 2020
    An interesting, and scary graph from the US:

    https://www.facebook.com/unanglaisendiois
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 25,812
    A high correlation with those states that the Trumpster praised for opening up early?
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 17,942
    pblakeney said:

    A high correlation with those states that the Trumpster praised for opening up early?


    He's killing off his base...
    https://www.facebook.com/unanglaisendiois
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 14,647
    briantrumpet said:

    pblakeney said:

    A high correlation with those states that the Trumpster praised for opening up early?


    He's killing off his base...
    In all seriousness, he's going on about postal voting being fraudulent, but we are in mid-July and infection rates will probably still be climbing come August. Which means death rates and lock down measures (such as they are in the US - 10 pin bowling reduced to 9 pin bowling and no simultaneous strikes) will still be in force towards the end of August and probably rather longer. Economic Armageddon will follow for some months after that. How is he going to blame the Democrats for what is going on in Florida or Arizona etc? China, sure. Fauci, possibly. But will that matter if elderly Repubmorons are locked down, frightened, dead or refuse to vote with a mask on?
  • ddraver
    ddraver Posts: 26,392
    First.Aspect said:

    (such as they are in the US - 10 pin bowling reduced to 9 pin bowling and no simultaneous strikes)

    😆😆😆😆
    We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
    - @ddraver
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 14,647
    Here we go.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53426367

    I spotted the WHO comment that challenge trials were not unethical back in April. Now seems to be gaining momentum.

    So I'll ask again now - any volunteers? What about those of you who think the whole lockdown thing was an over reaction, or who refuse to wear masks?
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 26,275
    First.Aspect said:

    Here we go.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53426367

    I spotted the WHO comment that challenge trials were not unethical back in April. Now seems to be gaining momentum.

    So I'll ask again now - any volunteers? What about those of you who think the whole lockdown thing was an over reaction, or who refuse to wear masks?


    Maybe just send them on a trip to Disneyworld?
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 14,647
    kingstongraham said:

    First.Aspect said:

    Here we go.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53426367

    I spotted the WHO comment that challenge trials were not unethical back in April. Now seems to be gaining momentum.

    So I'll ask again now - any volunteers? What about those of you who think the whole lockdown thing was an over reaction, or who refuse to wear masks?


    Maybe just send them on a trip to Disneyworld?
    Tests have shown a strong antibody response in Dalmatians and jungle creatures and an initial cohort of seven dwarfs?
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 26,275
    The trip to Florida after having the vaccine also has the advantage that you have a control population of holiday makers who have not been vaccinated.

    I think it probably would be unethical to deliberately infect people who have not been given a vaccine, but this way, no problem.

    When they get there, hang out for a week, eat in a few diners, go on Space Mountain, job done.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,743
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-07-15/oxford-s-covid-19-vaccine-is-the-coronavirus-front-runner

    Quite interesting
    _
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 20,646
    The leaked information suggests both antibodies and T-cells are developed.
  • coopster_the_1st
    coopster_the_1st Posts: 5,158
    An interesting thread questioning if the US is about to be a disaster or if it is media driven hysteria?



    It should be obvious within 4 weeks time
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 18,943


    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 17,942
    Re schools... more to chew on...

    https://www.facebook.com/unanglaisendiois
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 26,275
    tailwindhome said:



    The minutes say:

    "13. The science suggests additional social distancing measures should be introduced as
    soon as possible.
    14. Compliance with the measures by the public is key.

    17. While SAGE's view remains that school closures constitutes one of the less effective single measure to reduce the epidemic peak, it may nevertheless become necessary to introduce school closures in order to push demand for critical care below NHS capacity. However school closures could increase the risks of transmission at smaller gatherings and for more vulnerable groups as well as impacting on key workers including NHS staff. As such it was agreed that further analysis and modelling of potential school closures was required (demand/supply, and effects on spread)"

    So kind of, but not really.

  • coopster_the_1st
    coopster_the_1st Posts: 5,158
    briantrumpet said:

    Re schools... more to chew on...

    Lots of masks being worn in that photo
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 18,943
    coopster_the_1st said:

    briantrumpet said:

    Re schools... more to chew on...

    Lots of masks being worn in that photo
    "But it is in the nature of middle-school kids to rebel, not to obey teachers, not to wear masks or keep apart.”

    lol
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 40,605
    briantrumpet said:

    Re schools... more to chew on...

    On the subject of schools, there was a piece on the news this morning about kids 'graduating' from primary schools and how the last day for them was so much different. They then had a live piece from outside a school in Cheshire (all news items these days are Manchester or Cheshire focussed since the Beeb relocated) and despite the item talking about how social distancing affected things the kids and teachers weren't keeping any distance at all. It makes me wonder why they were so concerned about the safety of reopening!
  • coopster_the_1st
    coopster_the_1st Posts: 5,158
    The fear of death follows from the fear of life. A man who lives fully is prepared to die at any time.
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 20,646
    kingstongraham said:

    tailwindhome said:



    The minutes say:

    "13. The science suggests additional social distancing measures should be introduced as
    soon as possible.
    14. Compliance with the measures by the public is key.

    17. While SAGE's view remains that school closures constitutes one of the less effective single measure to reduce the epidemic peak, it may nevertheless become necessary to introduce school closures in order to push demand for critical care below NHS capacity. However school closures could increase the risks of transmission at smaller gatherings and for more vulnerable groups as well as impacting on key workers including NHS staff. As such it was agreed that further analysis and modelling of potential school closures was required (demand/supply, and effects on spread)"

    So kind of, but not really.

    Thanks for doing the job of the journalist. I usually dismiss anything with a partial quote.

    It will be interesting to discover the extent to which the behavioural psychologists were involved. My hypothesis at the time was that the daily ratcheting up of rules was designed to create a feeling of danger and increase lockdown compliance.
  • webboo
    webboo Posts: 6,087
    coopster_the_1st said:

    The fear of death follows from the fear of life. A man who lives fully is prepared to die at any time.

    What a load of boll*cks . I bet the most risky thing you ever done is post on here.
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 58,584
    webboo said:

    coopster_the_1st said:

    The fear of death follows from the fear of life. A man who lives fully is prepared to die at any time.

    What a load of boll*cks . I bet the most risky thing you ever done is post on here.
    So who on here is a real daredevil?
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 58,584
    Some quite promising news on the vaccine front: covers antibodies and T-Cells:
    https://telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/15/coronavirus-vaccine-breakthrough-oxford-scientists-discover/
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • webboo
    webboo Posts: 6,087
    Some of us have done a few risky/ dangerous things in our time but we don’t go round spouting sh*t like that.
  • coopster_the_1st
    coopster_the_1st Posts: 5,158
    Stevo_666 said:

    webboo said:

    coopster_the_1st said:

    The fear of death follows from the fear of life. A man who lives fully is prepared to die at any time.

    What a load of boll*cks . I bet the most risky thing you ever done is post on here.
    So who on here is a real daredevil?
    Some people think opening their front door is as dangerous as a sky dive. I suspect this applies to 'webbo the (w)anchor'

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