The big Coronavirus thread

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Comments

  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 14,693

    rjsterry said:

    I'm not sure much will change. It was already the case that a lot of the more senior (or old) people worked from home some days whilst the younger generation came in every day. I don't see much changing although I've worked for a flexible company for years.


    Really not.
    Guess it depends where you work. 15 years ago my old boss told me that five days in the office in a week meant divorce. You haven't come across a lot of people with a pied-à-terre and the country house?
    Genuinely, I've only ever seen it in people who are over 55 and usually call the shots themselves.

    Like I said, my sample size isn't that small, albeit in one industry.

    Also, if you read various reports the proportions are similar in terms of how many want to go back to Mon-Fri.

    If I'm correct about which industry that is, they're not renowned for a healthy work/life balance.
    Professional services have a presenteeism culture, who knew!

    Not if you have billing targets. Presenteeism doesn't cut it.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,945

    rjsterry said:

    I'm not sure much will change. It was already the case that a lot of the more senior (or old) people worked from home some days whilst the younger generation came in every day. I don't see much changing although I've worked for a flexible company for years.


    Really not.
    Guess it depends where you work. 15 years ago my old boss told me that five days in the office in a week meant divorce. You haven't come across a lot of people with a pied-à-terre and the country house?
    Genuinely, I've only ever seen it in people who are over 55 and usually call the shots themselves.

    Like I said, my sample size isn't that small, albeit in one industry.

    Also, if you read various reports the proportions are similar in terms of how many want to go back to Mon-Fri.

    If I'm correct about which industry that is, they're not renowned for a healthy work/life balance.
    Professional services have a presenteeism culture, who knew!

    Not if you have billing targets. Presenteeism doesn't cut it.
    Ha, if only.
  • Awesome, the government are now allowing lockdowns to be made by local councils.

    So, these inept little hitlers (if they were any good they would be quickly promoted into the national system) will be able to shut down the local area on their own whim, no matter what damage it does, with them in the knowledge they are secure with their public paid salaries and super pensions.

    These are the same people who could not protect care homes which is their responsibility!
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 26,363


    ONS figures not affected. Which means a couple of things.

    The 40,000 total figure from PHE for England is 8,000 lower than the ONS figure, so PHE were underreporting before they started overreporting.

    On the other hand, the "brought forward" deaths for the last few weeks reported is about the same as the reported Covid deaths, so around 600 per week. 3 months in, that doesn't sound like the vast proportion that was claimed initially. Quick glance shows deaths of those aged 85+ in June is pretty much the same as last year.
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 40,886

    The fear of death follows from the fear of life. A man who lives fully is prepared to die at any time.

    You ok?
    All OK here :smile:

    Glad to hear it.
    How are you post C19?

    Much improvement?
    Still tired, trying to get a bit more activity in, so I can see if it is covid or just lack of fitness that has me exhausted after exercise. Nothing more than about 15 minutes at minimal effort still. It really sucks.
    I was talking to an ex-colleague yesterday. His wife is in a very similar situation, after weeks can just about walk for 15 minutes but is then wiped out for a few days. She had a negative anti-body test but has been told it was probably a false negative.
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 40,886
    Jeremy.89 said:

    Pross said:

    I do think the world of Mon-Fri in the office is going to be *a lot* smaller.

    I‘ve spoken to maybe 300 people since lockdown started, mainly in the U.K. but also across Western Europe and not a single person I can remember intends to go back Mon-Fri in the office once there is no corona.

    stats I’ve seen put professional services with something like only 10% looking to return to Mon-Fri in the office with well over 2/3s looking to do 2 days *or less* in the office.

    I do think it’s a massive shift.

    I think that would be a good thing in many ways and I haven't worked 5 days a week in an office for over 3 years. However, I think you might be extrapolating too much from what I assume are fairly high end jobs in a narrow sector. We reopened out offices last week and several people were very keen to get back albeit they can only do 2 days a week at the moment. Our MD, whilst being quite supportive of flexibility, still likes having most people in the office to share ideas and talk things through. I suspect that's even more the case in more creative office based roles. Despite the inspirational Microsoft ads I don't think sharing ideas works so well when people are remote from each other.
    Have you noticed a bit of a honeymoon for remote working? I certainly think it's nice as a change of pace, but you miss all kinds of comunication between groups that would usually happen.
    To be honest, I would happily work from home constantly. The site visits I have to make give me all the social contact I need as I'm not very sociable.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,945


    Hmm.
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 25,922
    ^^^^
    That does sound very familiar.
    So, how is the US doing these days?
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 58,770

    And salaries. If people don't have to pay a huge wedge in commuting costs, they can work for less.

    Think bigger - if you are going into the office two days a month you can live anywhere in the world which could have a huge impact on your cost of living
    True.
    So all you folks working from home in the expensive SE will be competing with people who may live in much cheaper areas, and will be squeezed out when it comes to looking for your next post.
    I was thinking more of the opportunity to sell up the 3 bed semi and buy a castle (other dreams are available)
    Well quite. This whole thing could bring some good buying opportunities on the property front.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    Stevo_666 said:

    And salaries. If people don't have to pay a huge wedge in commuting costs, they can work for less.

    Think bigger - if you are going into the office two days a month you can live anywhere in the world which could have a huge impact on your cost of living
    True.
    So all you folks working from home in the expensive SE will be competing with people who may live in much cheaper areas, and will be squeezed out when it comes to looking for your next post.
    I was thinking more of the opportunity to sell up the 3 bed semi and buy a castle (other dreams are available)
    Well quite. This whole thing could bring some good buying opportunities on the property front.
    I think citizenship can be bought in Portugal for a reasonable property investment. A couple of hours from Lisbon/Faro would make a monthly commute very doable.
  • pblakeney said:

    ^^^^
    That does sound very familiar.
    So, how is the US doing these days?

    Depends if you, like the media and a couple of others on here conflate cases with deaths.
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 27,827
    Stevo_666 said:

    And salaries. If people don't have to pay a huge wedge in commuting costs, they can work for less.

    Think bigger - if you are going into the office two days a month you can live anywhere in the world which could have a huge impact on your cost of living
    True.
    So all you folks working from home in the expensive SE will be competing with people who may live in much cheaper areas, and will be squeezed out when it comes to looking for your next post.
    I was thinking more of the opportunity to sell up the 3 bed semi and buy a castle (other dreams are available)
    Well quite. This whole thing could bring some good buying opportunities on the property front.
    I wouldn't get your hopes up if our enquiries are anything to go by. Islington and Highgate still very much in demand.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 26,363

    pblakeney said:

    ^^^^
    That does sound very familiar.
    So, how is the US doing these days?

    Depends if you, like the media and a couple of others on here conflate cases with deaths.
    We'll come back to that in a few weeks.

    USA new cases started going up early June, now crazy numbers. Hospitalisations started going up late June, now just off the March peak. Deaths started rising about 10 days ago.

    Logic suggests it's not going to look great - obviously more testing catches more cases, also earlier testing might mean earlier hospitalisation, and what we know about treating the disease that we didn't know in March all add up to lower fatality than New York (and the UK) saw.
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 14,693

    pblakeney said:

    ^^^^
    That does sound very familiar.
    So, how is the US doing these days?

    Depends if you, like the media and a couple of others on here conflate cases with deaths.
    We'll come back to that in a few weeks.

    USA new cases started going up early June, now crazy numbers. Hospitalisations started going up late June, now just off the March peak. Deaths started rising about 10 days ago.

    Logic suggests it's not going to look great - obviously more testing catches more cases, also earlier testing might mean earlier hospitalisation, and what we know about treating the disease that we didn't know in March all add up to lower fatality than New York (and the UK) saw.
    5130 deaths reported in last 7 days.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/coronavirus-deaths-united-states-each-day-2020-n1177936

    So, currently roughly 3 1/2 times the death rate in England. Ours is going down or is steady, theirs is rising again. Perhaps not to April levels, but 700-1000 per day doesn't seem that low to me.
  • pblakeney said:

    ^^^^
    That does sound very familiar.
    So, how is the US doing these days?

    Depends if you, like the media and a couple of others on here conflate cases with deaths.
    We'll come back to that in a few weeks.

    USA new cases started going up early June, now crazy numbers. Hospitalisations started going up late June, now just off the March peak. Deaths started rising about 10 days ago.

    Logic suggests it's not going to look great - obviously more testing catches more cases, also earlier testing might mean earlier hospitalisation, and what we know about treating the disease that we didn't know in March all add up to lower fatality than New York (and the UK) saw.
    All the above depends on who is catching the virus. If the old and vulnerable are being correctly shielded, we will not see deaths follow cases like they did in NY back in March. While it is not perfect, this does seem to be what is happening in the US now and we are getting hysteria created by the media because they don't (want to) understand this.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 26,363
    edited July 2020

    pblakeney said:

    ^^^^
    That does sound very familiar.
    So, how is the US doing these days?

    Depends if you, like the media and a couple of others on here conflate cases with deaths.
    We'll come back to that in a few weeks.

    USA new cases started going up early June, now crazy numbers. Hospitalisations started going up late June, now just off the March peak. Deaths started rising about 10 days ago.

    Logic suggests it's not going to look great - obviously more testing catches more cases, also earlier testing might mean earlier hospitalisation, and what we know about treating the disease that we didn't know in March all add up to lower fatality than New York (and the UK) saw.
    All the above depends on who is catching the virus. If the old and vulnerable are being correctly shielded, we will not see deaths follow cases like they did in NY back in March. While it is not perfect, this does seem to be what is happening in the US now and we are getting hysteria created by the media because they don't (want to) understand this.
    Started off that way, yes.



    The USA can be an "interest" for us, because we're not there, and they're not coming here. I hope you're right, but they've really gone out on a limb and left quite a lot to hopes and prayers.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,945


    Have we all accepted that SC and others (me) were right that this has been a f@ck up?


  • Have we all accepted that SC and others (me) were right that this has been a f@ck up?
    We'll only know after we've had the second wave. I suspect London may fair better than the rest of the UK but I do think they are wrong with the suppression strategy as that only leads to many lockdowns over the winter
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867



    Have we all accepted that SC and others (me) were right that this has been a f@ck up?
    We'll only know after we've had the second wave. I suspect London may fair better than the rest of the UK but I do think they are wrong with the suppression strategy as that only leads to many lockdowns over the winter
    I am sticking by my theory that it either is not as contagious or as deadly as people think.

    I do think the Govt’s performance is criminal and in the private sector would be charged with corporate manslaughter
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 25,922
    Prevention is better than the cure.
    Trouble is if you prevent something happening then you never really know.
    Or, you could go down the blame culture wormhole.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 20,730
    PHE now not reporting deaths until they have worked out a better way to do.
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 25,922



    Have we all accepted that SC and others (me) were right that this has been a f@ck up?
    People are getting a bit over excited over his recent announcement that things are returning to normal before Christmas. He used a lot of caveats.

    "It is my strong and sincere hope that we will be able to review the outstanding restrictions and allow a more significant return to normality from November, at the earliest, possibly in time for Christmas."
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 26,363
    I think the subtleties may get lost somewhere along the line, as he intended.




  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 40,886
    I read yesterday's announcements as 'we're fed up of making decisions so we're going to leave people to make their own choices' especially in respect to returning to the workplace. It seems an odd route to go down as they presumably know that if rates increase they'll have to clamp down again and all the thickos will be going on about broken promises.
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 18,107
    Pross said:

    I read yesterday's announcements as 'we're fed up of making decisions so we're going to leave people to make their own choices' especially in respect to returning to the workplace. It seems an odd route to go down as they presumably know that if rates increase they'll have to clamp down again and all the thickos will be going on about broken promises.


    Yup, and the fact that he wants to give the regions the powers to impose local lockdowns suggests he wants to avoid the blame if/when they are imposed or not. As for his pronouncement about public transport, well... "“From today we are making clear that anybody may use public transport, while of course encouraging people to consider alternative means of transport where they are available”. Clear as mud.
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 25,922
    Bluff and bluster. Taking credit while avoiding blame. Classic BJ.
    Same as it ever was.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • The government now is panicking about the damage being done to the economy after panicking the population that it was dangerous to open their front door.

    In March I was saying pragmatism not panic and the panic approach is now coming home to roost. This is what happens when you use the same behavioural insights team that decided on the best way the then 2016 should 'win' the referendum for remain.

    'Experts' are also not having a great pandemic. Firstly SAGE and now PHE all are looking rather incompetent and more so as more light is shined on them.
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 14,693

    rjsterry said:

    I'm not sure much will change. It was already the case that a lot of the more senior (or old) people worked from home some days whilst the younger generation came in every day. I don't see much changing although I've worked for a flexible company for years.


    Really not.
    Guess it depends where you work. 15 years ago my old boss told me that five days in the office in a week meant divorce. You haven't come across a lot of people with a pied-à-terre and the country house?
    Genuinely, I've only ever seen it in people who are over 55 and usually call the shots themselves.

    Like I said, my sample size isn't that small, albeit in one industry.

    Also, if you read various reports the proportions are similar in terms of how many want to go back to Mon-Fri.

    If I'm correct about which industry that is, they're not renowned for a healthy work/life balance.
    Professional services have a presenteeism culture, who knew!

    Not if you have billing targets. Presenteeism doesn't cut it.
    Ha, if only.
    How are you defining presenteeism? To me this is being a bum on a seat with little to show for it.

    At least in legal work you can sit there for as long as you want, but a piece of work commands a certain range of charges based on expected time spent. If it doesn't exist, you can't charge for it. If it takes you three times too long, you can't charge for 2/3 of it. If you have a billing target based on how long it should take, you won't meet it. If you don't meet it, you won't progress or worse still retain your job. There is nowhere to hide because in most private firms everyone can see everyone's numbers.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,945

    rjsterry said:

    I'm not sure much will change. It was already the case that a lot of the more senior (or old) people worked from home some days whilst the younger generation came in every day. I don't see much changing although I've worked for a flexible company for years.


    Really not.
    Guess it depends where you work. 15 years ago my old boss told me that five days in the office in a week meant divorce. You haven't come across a lot of people with a pied-à-terre and the country house?
    Genuinely, I've only ever seen it in people who are over 55 and usually call the shots themselves.

    Like I said, my sample size isn't that small, albeit in one industry.

    Also, if you read various reports the proportions are similar in terms of how many want to go back to Mon-Fri.

    If I'm correct about which industry that is, they're not renowned for a healthy work/life balance.
    Professional services have a presenteeism culture, who knew!

    Not if you have billing targets. Presenteeism doesn't cut it.
    Ha, if only.
    How are you defining presenteeism? To me this is being a bum on a seat with little to show for it.

    At least in legal work you can sit there for as long as you want, but a piece of work commands a certain range of charges based on expected time spent. If it doesn't exist, you can't charge for it. If it takes you three times too long, you can't charge for 2/3 of it. If you have a billing target based on how long it should take, you won't meet it. If you don't meet it, you won't progress or worse still retain your job. There is nowhere to hide because in most private firms everyone can see everyone's numbers.
    Plenty of firms have both targets and insist you are there at all times.

    Certainly the case in the firms I worked in.
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 27,827

    rjsterry said:

    I'm not sure much will change. It was already the case that a lot of the more senior (or old) people worked from home some days whilst the younger generation came in every day. I don't see much changing although I've worked for a flexible company for years.


    Really not.
    Guess it depends where you work. 15 years ago my old boss told me that five days in the office in a week meant divorce. You haven't come across a lot of people with a pied-à-terre and the country house?
    Genuinely, I've only ever seen it in people who are over 55 and usually call the shots themselves.

    Like I said, my sample size isn't that small, albeit in one industry.

    Also, if you read various reports the proportions are similar in terms of how many want to go back to Mon-Fri.

    If I'm correct about which industry that is, they're not renowned for a healthy work/life balance.
    Professional services have a presenteeism culture, who knew!

    Not if you have billing targets. Presenteeism doesn't cut it.
    Ha, if only.
    How are you defining presenteeism? To me this is being a bum on a seat with little to show for it.

    At least in legal work you can sit there for as long as you want, but a piece of work commands a certain range of charges based on expected time spent. If it doesn't exist, you can't charge for it. If it takes you three times too long, you can't charge for 2/3 of it. If you have a billing target based on how long it should take, you won't meet it. If you don't meet it, you won't progress or worse still retain your job. There is nowhere to hide because in most private firms everyone can see everyone's numbers.
    Same for my line of work, it is obvious within a couple of weeks if someone is not pulling their weight. It is apparent that some of our clients - many of whom are in FS - are strangers to this idea.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition