The big Coronavirus thread

tailwindhome

https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1285209008618561536?s=20

rick_chasey

It's great news but this line made me laugh

The findings are hugely promising, but it is still too soon to know if this is enough to offer protection and larger trials are under way.

The UK has already ordered 100 million doses of the vaccine.

ugo.santalucia

The most likely scenario is a vaccine that works for the short term and needs a new dose/updated version a few month later. With that in mind, if the vaccination is "global", there is the hope of eradication

ddraver

Have we got an idea of how long immunity lasts now..?

...seeing as how I've already been "vaccinated" the hard way...

ugo.santalucia

ddraver said:

Have we got an idea of how long immunity lasts now..?

...seeing as how I've already been "vaccinated" the hard way...

Some studies suggest that the antibodies drop significantly after 3 months in some subjects and less so in others... so you might easily get it twice in the same year.
Interesting to hear you had it, how was it? (I missed about 400 pages of this thread)

Stevo_666

tailwindhome said:

Stevo_666 said:

tailwindhome said:

Be interesting to know how much was deferred and how much is an actual drop in VAT due.

Businesses had the option to defer VAT payments for a period, which explains this. The catch up will be over the next 9 months with a big spike at the end of March '21.

I know that.

There will also be a drop in the VAT payable for all those businesses which had no, or drastically reduced revenues from March to June.

Our vat payable for the qtr ended 30/04 , due in June but deferred to March is roughly half what it was last year.

And I know that. But your graph clearly won't show anything about that yet as it's too early: the only thing on the graph to explain was the drop to zero.

We'll just have wait and see, but expect it will be broadly in line with the Q2 economic contraction. May be hard to separately identify though, as it will be mixed in with the non-deferred VAT payments due at the same time.

tailwindhome

Stevo_666 said:

tailwindhome said:

Stevo_666 said:

tailwindhome said:

Be interesting to know how much was deferred and how much is an actual drop in VAT due.

Businesses had the option to defer VAT payments for a period, which explains this. The catch up will be over the next 9 months with a big spike at the end of March '21.

I know that.

There will also be a drop in the VAT payable for all those businesses which had no, or drastically reduced revenues from March to June.

Our vat payable for the qtr ended 30/04 , due in June but deferred to March is roughly half what it was last year.

And I know that. But your graph clearly won't show anything about that yet as it's too early: the only thing on the graph to explain was the drop to zero.

We'll just have wait and see, but expect it will be broadly in line with the Q2 economic contraction. May be hard to separately identify though, as it will be mixed in with the non-deferred VAT payments due at the same time.

Agreed

blazing_saddles

ugo.santalucia said:

ddraver said:

Have we got an idea of how long immunity lasts now..?

...seeing as how I've already been "vaccinated" the hard way...

Some studies suggest that the antibodies drop significantly after 3 months in some subjects and less so in others... so you might easily get it twice in the same year.
Interesting to hear you had it, how was it? (I missed about 400 pages of this thread)

This may well be why the Oxford vaccine will be an outright winner, as it not only produces antibodies but T cells, which is what the "breaking news" is all about.
More here:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53469839

Now for how long this boosts immunity, we have this as an indicator.

https://www.ft.com/content/5cf2ee49-df7a-4990-b337-860cf7737b2f

Scientists who have spent months focused on the role of antibodies in fighting Covid-19 are beginning to suspect that a lesser known part of the immune system is equally crucial: T-cells.

Evidence is emerging that T-cells, which can “remember” past infections and kill pathogens if they reappear, have a big influence on how long patients remain resistant to reinfection by Covid-19.

People who recovered from Sars, the disease most closely related to Covid-19, in 2003 still show cellular immunity to that coronavirus 17 years later.

ddraver

ugo.santalucia said:

ddraver said:

Have we got an idea of how long immunity lasts now..?

...seeing as how I've already been "vaccinated" the hard way...

Some studies suggest that the antibodies drop significantly after 3 months in some subjects and less so in others... so you might easily get it twice in the same year.
Interesting to hear you had it, how was it? (I missed about 400 pages of this thread)

DM'd

nickice

blazing_saddles said:

ugo.santalucia said:

ddraver said:

Have we got an idea of how long immunity lasts now..?

...seeing as how I've already been "vaccinated" the hard way...

Some studies suggest that the antibodies drop significantly after 3 months in some subjects and less so in others... so you might easily get it twice in the same year.
Interesting to hear you had it, how was it? (I missed about 400 pages of this thread)

This may well be why the Oxford vaccine will be an outright winner, as it not only produces antibodies but T cells, which is what the "breaking news" is all about.
More here:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53469839

Now for how long this boosts immunity, we have this as an indicator.

https://www.ft.com/content/5cf2ee49-df7a-4990-b337-860cf7737b2f

Scientists who have spent months focused on the role of antibodies in fighting Covid-19 are beginning to suspect that a lesser known part of the immune system is equally crucial: T-cells.

Evidence is emerging that T-cells, which can “remember” past infections and kill pathogens if they reappear, have a big influence on how long patients remain resistant to reinfection by Covid-19.

People who recovered from Sars, the disease most closely related to Covid-19, in 2003 still show cellular immunity to that coronavirus 17 years later.

The problem is that I think that older people don't produce many T cells which is what makes them susceptible to becoming seriously ill from even mild viruses.

Stevo_666

blazing_saddles said:

ugo.santalucia said:

ddraver said:

Have we got an idea of how long immunity lasts now..?

...seeing as how I've already been "vaccinated" the hard way...

Some studies suggest that the antibodies drop significantly after 3 months in some subjects and less so in others... so you might easily get it twice in the same year.
Interesting to hear you had it, how was it? (I missed about 400 pages of this thread)

This may well be why the Oxford vaccine will be an outright winner, as it not only produces antibodies but T cells, which is what the "breaking news" is all about.
More here:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53469839

Now for how long this boosts immunity, we have this as an indicator.

https://www.ft.com/content/5cf2ee49-df7a-4990-b337-860cf7737b2f

Scientists who have spent months focused on the role of antibodies in fighting Covid-19 are beginning to suspect that a lesser known part of the immune system is equally crucial: T-cells.

Evidence is emerging that T-cells, which can “remember” past infections and kill pathogens if they reappear, have a big influence on how long patients remain resistant to reinfection by Covid-19.

People who recovered from Sars, the disease most closely related to Covid-19, in 2003 still show cellular immunity to that coronavirus 17 years later.

Promising. Especially on the longer term immunity point.

I'm hoping I already have some immunity from being exposed to every variant of flu and cold type diseases from 30 years of working in London.

ballysmate

ballysmate said:

tailwindhome said:

Booked a holiday yet?

Already had 2 cancelled but still have Almeria and Madeira to come. Not that confident tbh.
Last week I booked for Fuerteventura in January.
If you don't book you can't go can you?
Worst case scenario cancellation and a refund.

Almeria cancelled.

Stevo_666

ballysmate said:

ballysmate said:

tailwindhome said:

Booked a holiday yet?

Already had 2 cancelled but still have Almeria and Madeira to come. Not that confident tbh.
Last week I booked for Fuerteventura in January.
If you don't book you can't go can you?
Worst case scenario cancellation and a refund.

Almeria cancelled.

Skegness is quite warm at the moment.

morstar

Stevo_666 said:

ballysmate said:

ballysmate said:

tailwindhome said:

Booked a holiday yet?

Already had 2 cancelled but still have Almeria and Madeira to come. Not that confident tbh.
Last week I booked for Fuerteventura in January.
If you don't book you can't go can you?
Worst case scenario cancellation and a refund.

Almeria cancelled.

Skegness is quite warm at the moment.

I know you’re joking but...

Is it?

Stevo_666

morstar said:

Stevo_666 said:

ballysmate said:

ballysmate said:

tailwindhome said:

Booked a holiday yet?

Already had 2 cancelled but still have Almeria and Madeira to come. Not that confident tbh.
Last week I booked for Fuerteventura in January.
If you don't book you can't go can you?
Worst case scenario cancellation and a refund.

Almeria cancelled.

Skegness is quite warm at the moment.

I know you’re joking but...

Is it?

No idea, I was just trying to cheer him up

morstar

Stevo_666 said:

morstar said:

Stevo_666 said:

ballysmate said:

ballysmate said:

tailwindhome said:

Booked a holiday yet?

Already had 2 cancelled but still have Almeria and Madeira to come. Not that confident tbh.
Last week I booked for Fuerteventura in January.
If you don't book you can't go can you?
Worst case scenario cancellation and a refund.

Almeria cancelled.

Skegness is quite warm at the moment.

I know you’re joking but...

Is it?

No idea, I was just trying to cheer him up

He may be mighty miffed if he turns up to find Butlins shut and it’s 15 degrees.

Have a heart!

Stevo_666

morstar said:

Stevo_666 said:

morstar said:

Stevo_666 said:

ballysmate said:

ballysmate said:

tailwindhome said:

Booked a holiday yet?

Already had 2 cancelled but still have Almeria and Madeira to come. Not that confident tbh.
Last week I booked for Fuerteventura in January.
If you don't book you can't go can you?
Worst case scenario cancellation and a refund.

Almeria cancelled.

Skegness is quite warm at the moment.

I know you’re joking but...

Is it?

No idea, I was just trying to cheer him up

He may be mighty miffed if he turns up to find Butlins shut and it’s 15 degrees.

Have a heart!

You're such a spoilsport MS

john80

ugo.santalucia said:

The most likely scenario is a vaccine that works for the short term and needs a new dose/updated version a few month later. With that in mind, if the vaccination is "global", there is the hope of eradication

Until the next chinese market fiasco.

blazing_saddles

ballysmate said:

ballysmate said:

tailwindhome said:

Booked a holiday yet?

Already had 2 cancelled but still have Almeria and Madeira to come. Not that confident tbh.
Last week I booked for Fuerteventura in January.
If you don't book you can't go can you?
Worst case scenario cancellation and a refund.

Almeria cancelled.

Was it an issue with the hotel, rather than the flight?
I read about families being flown out to Salou, only to find the hotel was closed due to covid.

I had the green light for Mallorca, last week.
Which as it stands I take to mean it's on until we tell you it's off.
Although the Balearics are nearly covid free atm.

tailwindhome

Mallorca in Sept cancelled. Jet 2 binned the flights.
Never really expected to be going if I'm honest.

Eldest daughter going with the inlaws to Mallorca next week, that's still on apparently.

ballysmate

Accommodation was fine. We always book flight only then book our accommodation direct.
Got an email today from Jet2 saying they were reducing their flight schedule.
Due to go to Madeira as well but I will be amazed if that doesn't get cancelled.
Jet2 have been excellent regarding refunds, but I do wonder what effect the cancellations will have on holiday resorts, where the sole income is tourism.

briantrumpet

tailwindhome said:

Mallorca in Sept cancelled. Jet 2 binned the flights.
Never really expected to be going if I'm honest.

Eldest daughter going with the inlaws to Mallorca next week, that's still on apparently.

One of the reasons I'm driving the 850 miles to south east France - ferries less likely to be randomly cancelled, I think, plus keeping away from the great unwashed.

Pross

briantrumpet said:

tailwindhome said:

Mallorca in Sept cancelled. Jet 2 binned the flights.
Never really expected to be going if I'm honest.

Eldest daughter going with the inlaws to Mallorca next week, that's still on apparently.

One of the reasons I'm driving the 850 miles to south east France - ferries less likely to be randomly cancelled, I think, plus keeping away from the great unwashed.

That's been our main holidays in recent years though not quite that far. The ferry has been a joy since we discovered the club lounge and escaped fighting for seats with coach parties and screaming kids and I'm quite happy driving. Did consider driving on this year's planned trip to Garda but changed to flying and having a couple of days in Venice (now cancelled by us).

blazing_saddles

tailwindhome said:

Mallorca in Sept cancelled. Jet 2 binned the flights.
Never really expected to be going if I'm honest.

Eldest daughter going with the inlaws to Mallorca next week, that's still on apparently.

Mine could have gone the same way, truth be told.
TUI cut weekly flights from 5 down to 2, but the flight I had chosen is still on.

coopster_the_1st

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=47574f7a6e454dc6a42c5f6912ed7076

The website shows a map of England and the actual facts around current infections rather than the hysteria living in peoples heads

pangolin

What does "data suppressed" in the legend mean?

kingstonian

That map is really insightful, thanks for providing the link.

I think it is a view of England only, so Wales for example isn't included and therefore "data suppressed"

tailwindhome

coopster_the_1st said:

The website shows a map of England and the actual facts around current infections rather than the hysteria living in peoples heads

People are aware the virus is at a low level now.
They'd just like to keep it that way.

pangolin

That link says 0 (or suppressed) cases in Bristol from 6-12 July, which disagrees with this https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274 (7 cases from 10-16 July, 11 cases the week before that)

Looks like most of the map is just missing data no? What is the source?

kingstongraham

I think this is interesting (if morbid) - from the weekly ONS figures, compared the deaths of aged 85+, excluding those registered as Covid19, with the average of the previous 5 years.

I'd have thought these would be most likely to be "brought forward" - there were 19,000 Covid deaths in this age range up to the end of May, plus it's fairly clear from the graph this number was an understatement by thousands in April.