The big Coronavirus thread

kingstongraham

6 days after the 10th death in Italy, they had 52 total deaths. 6 days after the 10th death in the UK, now 104 total deaths.

This still puts us about two weeks behind Italy, and with worse outcomes so far.

Pross

Genuine question, why go from the days after the 10th death rather than from the first confirmed case?

photonic69

All schools to shut and exams cancelled.

surrey_commuter

Pross said:

Genuine question, why go from the days after the 10th death rather than from the first confirmed case?

I would guess that first confirmed case could be a statistical outlier, ten deaths gives you a more robust number.

surrey_commuter

Does anybody know what phase building temporary morgues in Westminster falls into?

Currency markets are hammering the pound, I had to double check it was not a typo.

surrey_commuter

My kids are ten and seven so no education harm is missing two days. What is the collective wisdom in pulling them out now rather than waiting two days?

briantrumpet

focuszing723 said:

It looks like London needs locking down from the figures.

Reports from France are that Parisians with second homes who 'escaped' before the French lockdown are being cold-shouldered in the regions, as the locals feel they are spreading the problem. I don't suppose you could stop that here, but yes, London looks like a seething viral mass from far afield.

verylonglegs

briantrumpet said:

focuszing723 said:

It looks like London needs locking down from the figures.

Reports from France are that Parisians with second homes who 'escaped' before the French lockdown are being cold-shouldered in the regions, as the locals feel they are spreading the problem. I don't suppose you could stop that here, but yes, London looks like a seething viral mass from far afield.

Just been chatting with a mate, he says several work colleagues in the shires are expecting their adult children home at the weekend due to the rumour that London is to be locked down soon. Likely bringing the virus with them.

tailwindhome

Pross said:

Genuine question, why go from the days after the 10th death rather than from the first confirmed case?

I'm guessing there's a wide variety in countries from 1st to 10th
Then shit kicks off

Stevo_666

photonic69 said:

All schools to shut and exams cancelled.

Although no clarity yet on what they will do to decide who goes to uni etc. (May seem slightly non-critical compared to the health issues, but my kid was 10 weeks off sitting her A-levels so she quite naturally wants to know).

tailwindhome

There can't be a voter in the UK would look at Boris and say he's the man we need right now.

Awful

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1240338045506912257?s=20

crescent

Remember when we used to worry about saddle angles and stem spacers? 🙁

kingstongraham

Pross said:

Genuine question, why go from the days after the 10th death rather than from the first confirmed case?

I just thought that means it's the point at which it has really taken hold and the numbers are starting to move.

For reference, 6 days after the 10th death in Spain, they were at 133 (compared to UK today at 104). 4 days later, yesterday's number was 533.

Italy are 22 days on from the 10th death, and are at 2,975 deaths.

Anyone think of a good reason why we are not about to see these numbers?

coopster_the_1st

kingstongraham said:

Pross said:

Genuine question, why go from the days after the 10th death rather than from the first confirmed case?

I just thought that means it's the point at which it has really taken hold and the numbers are starting to move.

For reference, 6 days after the 10th death in Spain, they were at 133 (compared to UK today at 104). 4 days later, yesterday's number was 533.

Italy are 22 days on from the 10th death, and are at 2,975 deaths.

Anyone think of a good reason why we are not about to see these numbers?

Demographics? That London is our hotspot and has a generally younger population?

Although I think a good result would be 50% behind Italy at that 22 day mark.

coopster_the_1st

My biggest gripe at the current government advice is why are they not pushing lifestyle changes as part of the wash your hands message.

They should be pushing that you will improve your chances if you improve your health. That can include giving up smoking and walking/exercising more. This advice could actually save more lives in the long term than are lost to C19

Pross

Stevo_666 said:

photonic69 said:

All schools to shut and exams cancelled.

Although no clarity yet on what they will do to decide who goes to uni etc. (May seem slightly non-critical compared to the health issues, but my kid was 10 weeks off sitting her A-levels so she quite naturally wants to know).

Radio 5 were covering the impact on education at lunchtime. Head teachers are pushing for predicted grades, some University chancellors are apparently talking about trying to start the Uni term in November to allow A levels to go ahead.

Predicted grades seems the best option for A levels in particular but makes it harder to determine the very best students applying for the more competitive courses (was it your daughter who wants to be a vet?).

Pross

tailwindhome said:

There can't be a voter in the UK would look at Boris and say he's the man we need right now.

Awful

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1240338045506912257?s=20

I suspect Corbyn would be worse, he'd probably be sitting on the fence still while members of the Party start putting processes in place to nationalise private medical facilities and pharmaceutical companies.

DeVlaeminck

Pross said:

Stevo_666 said:

photonic69 said:

All schools to shut and exams cancelled.

Although no clarity yet on what they will do to decide who goes to uni etc. (May seem slightly non-critical compared to the health issues, but my kid was 10 weeks off sitting her A-levels so she quite naturally wants to know).

Radio 5 were covering the impact on education at lunchtime. Head teachers are pushing for predicted grades, some University chancellors are apparently talking about trying to start the Uni term in November to allow A levels to go ahead.

Predicted grades seems the best option for A levels in particular but makes it harder to determine the very best students applying for the more competitive courses (was it your daughter who wants to be a vet?).

Mine does and she thinks her predicted are good - on the other hand her twin has probably got rather lower predicted though he did ok in his GCSEs so who knows. As my daughter says they get so many predicted/target / working at grades you are never sure what exactly is official. She thinks hers are A* A A though which she would take - but she did get 998 in those subjects at GCSE so I'd be annoyed if they were lower.

DeVlaeminck

surrey_commuter said:

My kids are ten and seven so no education harm is missing two days. What is the collective wisdom in pulling them out now rather than waiting two days?

Do it. I think the 2 days is just to give notice for people to get childcare. I'd tell mine to get out and they are both 18 but seeing as both have friends they were out with in Saturday who are now self isolating with a dry cough probably too late.

pblakeney

photonic69 said:

All schools to shut and exams cancelled.

I believe that we are in a phased lockdown.
Last week, voluntary.
This week, public buildings, schools etc.
Next week, who knows?
Anywhere between public transport stopping and full lockdown.
I do not expect to be working in the office past next week.

DeVlaeminck

pangolin said:

DeVlaeminck said:

TheBigBean said:

DeVlaeminck said:

pangolin said:

Longshot said:

surrey_commuter said:

By the time Boris gets round to it there will be nothing left to shut

Why the rush to shut schools? It's been said by many that they are trying to avoid the knock-on effects, especially in terms of NHS staff. It's not implausible.

Look, I'm no fan of Boris, but just make sure your hatred isn't clouding your thinking.

Longshot said:

surrey_commuter said:

By the time Boris gets round to it there will be nothing left to shut

Why the rush to shut schools? It's been said by many that they are trying to avoid the knock-on effects, especially in terms of NHS staff. It's not implausible.

Look, I'm no fan of Boris, but just make sure your hatred isn't clouding your thinking.

I'm dreading them shutting nurseries. Nursery have told us that as things stand they'd still expect fees. Work have told us that as things stand if we have to look after kids it's either annual leave or unpaid leave. Stuck in the middle.

I don't think nurseries can shut and still charge a fee tbh.

I don't think you understand nurseries. They will absolutely try. I don't think people will pay though. For example, I phoned to ask if I could look around one, and they asked if I had paid my registration fee? A non-refundable fee for looking around. No other businesses operate like that. It was even non-refundable in the event they were unable to offer a place.

Seriously no nursery can turn kids away at the door and then charge for looking after them. That's like Sainsbury's being told to close and charging me for the food I would have bought.

Unfortunately it's not, because you haven't signed a contract with Sainsbury's to shop there.

I'd put a large bet that a nursery can't close its doors and still charge fees. And in a related example I've just had an email from my gym saying it is closing and freezing payments.

As for paying voluntarily so it's still there when this is over - whoever suggested that well we are probably looking at 4 months minimum. Even paying half fees would be a substantial donation but people can do as they wish. I had a hair cut today and let him keep the £4 change for similar reasons but I think most would baulk at a couple of hundred quid a week upwards.

DeVlaeminck

pangolin said:

DeVlaeminck said:

TheBigBean said:

DeVlaeminck said:

pangolin said:

Longshot said:

surrey_commuter said:

By the time Boris gets round to it there will be nothing left to shut

Why the rush to shut schools? It's been said by many that they are trying to avoid the knock-on effects, especially in terms of NHS staff. It's not implausible.

Look, I'm no fan of Boris, but just make sure your hatred isn't clouding your thinking.

Longshot said:

surrey_commuter said:

By the time Boris gets round to it there will be nothing left to shut

Why the rush to shut schools? It's been said by many that they are trying to avoid the knock-on effects, especially in terms of NHS staff. It's not implausible.

Look, I'm no fan of Boris, but just make sure your hatred isn't clouding your thinking.

I'm dreading them shutting nurseries. Nursery have told us that as things stand they'd still expect fees. Work have told us that as things stand if we have to look after kids it's either annual leave or unpaid leave. Stuck in the middle.

I don't think nurseries can shut and still charge a fee tbh.

I don't think you understand nurseries. They will absolutely try. I don't think people will pay though. For example, I phoned to ask if I could look around one, and they asked if I had paid my registration fee? A non-refundable fee for looking around. No other businesses operate like that. It was even non-refundable in the event they were unable to offer a place.

Seriously no nursery can turn kids away at the door and then charge for looking after them. That's like Sainsbury's being told to close and charging me for the food I would have bought.

Unfortunately it's not, because you haven't signed a contract with Sainsbury's to shop there.

I'm surprised but yeah hold my hands up apparently they can charge fees and not deliver a service. Think I'd be giving notice as this could be a long haul.

TheBigBean

kingstongraham said:

Pross said:

Genuine question, why go from the days after the 10th death rather than from the first confirmed case?

I just thought that means it's the point at which it has really taken hold and the numbers are starting to move.

For reference, 6 days after the 10th death in Spain, they were at 133 (compared to UK today at 104). 4 days later, yesterday's number was 533.

Italy are 22 days on from the 10th death, and are at 2,975 deaths.

Anyone think of a good reason why we are not about to see these numbers?

Whenever I have thought about it over the last couple of months, every logical conclusion is that there will be six figures of deaths. My grieving process is such that I haven't accepted that yet, and still hope it will magically go away.

coopster_the_1st

TheBigBean said:

kingstongraham said:

Pross said:

Genuine question, why go from the days after the 10th death rather than from the first confirmed case?

I just thought that means it's the point at which it has really taken hold and the numbers are starting to move.

For reference, 6 days after the 10th death in Spain, they were at 133 (compared to UK today at 104). 4 days later, yesterday's number was 533.

Italy are 22 days on from the 10th death, and are at 2,975 deaths.

Anyone think of a good reason why we are not about to see these numbers?

Whenever I have thought about it over the last couple of months, every logical conclusion is that there will be six figures of deaths. My grieving process is such that I haven't accepted that yet, and still hope it will magically go away.

For some perspective 620,000 people die each year.

The current panic seems to be risking double counting these deaths.

This is my relevant to my point about moving the number by 0.1% for all this economic damage

focuszing723

coopster_the_1st said:

TheBigBean said:

kingstongraham said:

Pross said:

Genuine question, why go from the days after the 10th death rather than from the first confirmed case?

I just thought that means it's the point at which it has really taken hold and the numbers are starting to move.

For reference, 6 days after the 10th death in Spain, they were at 133 (compared to UK today at 104). 4 days later, yesterday's number was 533.

Italy are 22 days on from the 10th death, and are at 2,975 deaths.

Anyone think of a good reason why we are not about to see these numbers?

Whenever I have thought about it over the last couple of months, every logical conclusion is that there will be six figures of deaths. My grieving process is such that I haven't accepted that yet, and still hope it will magically go away.

For some perspective 620,000 people die each year.

The current panic seems to be risking double counting these deaths.

This is my relevant to my point about moving the number by 0.1% for all this economic damage

Can you clarify what you mean?

surrey_commuter

tailwindhome said:

There can't be a voter in the UK would look at Boris and say he's the man we need right now.

Awful

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1240338045506912257?s=20

That is a remarkable thought

coopster_the_1st

focuszing723 said:

coopster_the_1st said:

TheBigBean said:

kingstongraham said:

Pross said:

Genuine question, why go from the days after the 10th death rather than from the first confirmed case?

I just thought that means it's the point at which it has really taken hold and the numbers are starting to move.

For reference, 6 days after the 10th death in Spain, they were at 133 (compared to UK today at 104). 4 days later, yesterday's number was 533.

Italy are 22 days on from the 10th death, and are at 2,975 deaths.

Anyone think of a good reason why we are not about to see these numbers?

Whenever I have thought about it over the last couple of months, every logical conclusion is that there will be six figures of deaths. My grieving process is such that I haven't accepted that yet, and still hope it will magically go away.

For some perspective 620,000 people die each year.

The current panic seems to be risking double counting these deaths.

This is my relevant to my point about moving the number by 0.1% for all this economic damage

Can you clarify what you mean?

Let's pick 250,000* die from C19 this year

Let's say 200,000 of those would have died already this year of say cancer, lung disease, etc. For this year 200k people will die of C19 and 420k of diseases. This is where the double counting panic comes in.

That leaves 50k people(that I refer to the 0.1%). We are doing all this economic damage for these 50k people and many of these would have died in the next 1-5 years anyway.

This are not easy thoughts to have but what is the risk this economic damage will also kill 50k people. So we impact the futures of the other 65.9m of us massively with no gain.


*One of the numbers being used for possible number of deaths.

surrey_commuter

TheBigBean said:

kingstongraham said:

Pross said:

Genuine question, why go from the days after the 10th death rather than from the first confirmed case?

I just thought that means it's the point at which it has really taken hold and the numbers are starting to move.

For reference, 6 days after the 10th death in Spain, they were at 133 (compared to UK today at 104). 4 days later, yesterday's number was 533.

Italy are 22 days on from the 10th death, and are at 2,975 deaths.

Anyone think of a good reason why we are not about to see these numbers?

Whenever I have thought about it over the last couple of months, every logical conclusion is that there will be six figures of deaths. My grieving process is such that I haven't accepted that yet, and still hope it will magically go away.

My number was always 25,000 but logic always nibbled away saying that businesses and govts around the world would not be reacting the way they are unless they knew something.

surrey_commuter

focuszing723 said:

coopster_the_1st said:

TheBigBean said:

kingstongraham said:

Pross said:

Genuine question, why go from the days after the 10th death rather than from the first confirmed case?

I just thought that means it's the point at which it has really taken hold and the numbers are starting to move.

For reference, 6 days after the 10th death in Spain, they were at 133 (compared to UK today at 104). 4 days later, yesterday's number was 533.

Italy are 22 days on from the 10th death, and are at 2,975 deaths.

Anyone think of a good reason why we are not about to see these numbers?

Whenever I have thought about it over the last couple of months, every logical conclusion is that there will be six figures of deaths. My grieving process is such that I haven't accepted that yet, and still hope it will magically go away.

For some perspective 620,000 people die each year.

The current panic seems to be risking double counting these deaths.

This is my relevant to my point about moving the number by 0.1% for all this economic damage

Can you clarify what you mean?

He is talking about the trade off between keeping the Economy running and accepting more deaths.

bompington

Pross said:

Radio 5 were covering the impact on education at lunchtime. Head teachers are pushing for predicted grades, some University chancellors are apparently talking about trying to start the Uni term in November to allow A levels to go ahead.

Predicted grades seems the best option for A levels in particular but makes it harder to determine the very best students applying for the more competitive courses (was it your daughter who wants to be a vet?).

In Scotland the SQA have said that if exams don't go ahead - they start earlier here, and it certainly looks likely - they will get us to follow the usual procedure if a kid is sick on the day of the exam: we have to provide robust evidence that they should get the grade they claim, i.e. exam level work done under exam conditions. Prelims (mocks to you Sassenachs) are the gold standard for this.

This would be about to most reliable method, but how feasible is it? It's a pain in the butt for one or two students, and it must be for the markers too, imagine doing it for everyone?