The big Coronavirus thread

surrey_commuter

kingstongraham said:

Pross said:

Genuine question, why go from the days after the 10th death rather than from the first confirmed case?

I just thought that means it's the point at which it has really taken hold and the numbers are starting to move.

For reference, 6 days after the 10th death in Spain, they were at 133 (compared to UK today at 104). 4 days later, yesterday's number was 533.

Italy are 22 days on from the 10th death, and are at 2,975 deaths.

Anyone think of a good reason why we are not about to see these numbers?

Because our Govt had the benefit of learning from their experiences and adapted their decision making accordingly?

This should mean that we escape relatively lightly in line with Japan, Korea and Singapore. Building on their experience and knowledge we should be able to better their experience.

Pross

surrey_commuter said:

TheBigBean said:

kingstongraham said:

Pross said:

Genuine question, why go from the days after the 10th death rather than from the first confirmed case?

I just thought that means it's the point at which it has really taken hold and the numbers are starting to move.

For reference, 6 days after the 10th death in Spain, they were at 133 (compared to UK today at 104). 4 days later, yesterday's number was 533.

Italy are 22 days on from the 10th death, and are at 2,975 deaths.

Anyone think of a good reason why we are not about to see these numbers?

Whenever I have thought about it over the last couple of months, every logical conclusion is that there will be six figures of deaths. My grieving process is such that I haven't accepted that yet, and still hope it will magically go away.

My number was always 25,000 but logic always nibbled away saying that businesses and govts around the world would not be reacting the way they are unless they knew something.

To play devil's advocate is there a chance the actions are in part a need to be seen to be at least matching what other countries are doing so Italy potentially panicked for want of a better word and therefore people in other countries see that and demand action from their Government? It has been similar with the financial assistance getting announced, each country seems to be in an arms race.

Anyway, I was in a small room on Sunday with someone whose partner has just had a confirmed case so I might be adding to the stats shortly!

mrfpb

I now know someone with covid 19. Her husband has no symptoms at all, despite being exposed long enough to show them. I'm desperately trying to calculate when I last spoke to either of them - I think it was three weeks ago. They are both in their 70's but fit and active.

focuszing723

coopster_the_1st said:

focuszing723 said:

coopster_the_1st said:

TheBigBean said:

kingstongraham said:

Pross said:

Genuine question, why go from the days after the 10th death rather than from the first confirmed case?

I just thought that means it's the point at which it has really taken hold and the numbers are starting to move.

For reference, 6 days after the 10th death in Spain, they were at 133 (compared to UK today at 104). 4 days later, yesterday's number was 533.

Italy are 22 days on from the 10th death, and are at 2,975 deaths.

Anyone think of a good reason why we are not about to see these numbers?

Whenever I have thought about it over the last couple of months, every logical conclusion is that there will be six figures of deaths. My grieving process is such that I haven't accepted that yet, and still hope it will magically go away.

For some perspective 620,000 people die each year.

The current panic seems to be risking double counting these deaths.

This is my relevant to my point about moving the number by 0.1% for all this economic damage

Can you clarify what you mean?

Let's pick 250,000* die from C19 this year

Let's say 200,000 of those would have died already this year of say cancer, lung disease, etc. For this year 200k people will die of C19 and 420k of diseases. This is where the double counting panic comes in.

That leaves 50k people(that I refer to the 0.1%). We are doing all this economic damage for these 50k people and many of these would have died in the next 1-5 years anyway.

This are not easy thoughts to have but what is the risk this economic damage will also kill 50k people. So we impact the futures of the other 65.9m of us massively with no gain.


*One of the numbers being used for possible number of deaths.

You can't though. That's the price you pay for having a civilised society. If you went down that route I think there would be anarchy and you could forget democracy a dictatorship would need to be in place to control a Country.

focuszing723

surrey_commuter said:

focuszing723 said:

coopster_the_1st said:

TheBigBean said:

kingstongraham said:

Pross said:

Genuine question, why go from the days after the 10th death rather than from the first confirmed case?

I just thought that means it's the point at which it has really taken hold and the numbers are starting to move.

For reference, 6 days after the 10th death in Spain, they were at 133 (compared to UK today at 104). 4 days later, yesterday's number was 533.

Italy are 22 days on from the 10th death, and are at 2,975 deaths.

Anyone think of a good reason why we are not about to see these numbers?

Whenever I have thought about it over the last couple of months, every logical conclusion is that there will be six figures of deaths. My grieving process is such that I haven't accepted that yet, and still hope it will magically go away.

For some perspective 620,000 people die each year.

The current panic seems to be risking double counting these deaths.

This is my relevant to my point about moving the number by 0.1% for all this economic damage

Can you clarify what you mean?

He is talking about the trade off between keeping the Economy running and accepting more deaths.

I just wanted him to say it.

TheBigBean

surrey_commuter said:

kingstongraham said:

Pross said:

Genuine question, why go from the days after the 10th death rather than from the first confirmed case?

I just thought that means it's the point at which it has really taken hold and the numbers are starting to move.

For reference, 6 days after the 10th death in Spain, they were at 133 (compared to UK today at 104). 4 days later, yesterday's number was 533.

Italy are 22 days on from the 10th death, and are at 2,975 deaths.

Anyone think of a good reason why we are not about to see these numbers?

Because our Govt had the benefit of learning from their experiences and adapted their decision making accordingly?

This should mean that we escape relatively lightly in line with Japan, Korea and Singapore. Building on their experience and knowledge we should be able to better their experience.

Unless a treatment is found, I don't see why the UK would out perform the listed countries. In fact quite the opposite - Korea has six times as many intensive care beds per capita and has a population used to wearing face masks when the government states something dodgy from China has blown over. China has shown that is can lock down entire cities and build hospitals in 10 days.

focuszing723

That's a good point about the culture of face masks.

surrey_commuter

TheBigBean said:

surrey_commuter said:

kingstongraham said:

Pross said:

Genuine question, why go from the days after the 10th death rather than from the first confirmed case?

I just thought that means it's the point at which it has really taken hold and the numbers are starting to move.

For reference, 6 days after the 10th death in Spain, they were at 133 (compared to UK today at 104). 4 days later, yesterday's number was 533.

Italy are 22 days on from the 10th death, and are at 2,975 deaths.

Anyone think of a good reason why we are not about to see these numbers?

Because our Govt had the benefit of learning from their experiences and adapted their decision making accordingly?

This should mean that we escape relatively lightly in line with Japan, Korea and Singapore. Building on their experience and knowledge we should be able to better their experience.

Unless a treatment is found, I don't see why the UK would out perform the listed countries. In fact quite the opposite - Korea has six times as many intensive care beds per capita and has a population used to wearing face masks when the government states something dodgy from China has blown over. China has shown that is can lock down entire cities and build hospitals in 10 days.

Germany seems to be doing alright, that is being attributed to extensive testing. Something mentioned by forum items that it would be good to know if you’d had a mild dose.

UK testing capabilities are so low that they can not prioritise NHS staff, so if somebody in their household has the symptoms they have to self isolate for 7-14 days. Still as everybody on here would argue there is no way the Govt could have foreseen that and planned for it.

coopster_the_1st

focuszing723 said:

coopster_the_1st said:

focuszing723 said:

coopster_the_1st said:

TheBigBean said:

kingstongraham said:

Pross said:

Genuine question, why go from the days after the 10th death rather than from the first confirmed case?

I just thought that means it's the point at which it has really taken hold and the numbers are starting to move.

For reference, 6 days after the 10th death in Spain, they were at 133 (compared to UK today at 104). 4 days later, yesterday's number was 533.

Italy are 22 days on from the 10th death, and are at 2,975 deaths.

Anyone think of a good reason why we are not about to see these numbers?

Whenever I have thought about it over the last couple of months, every logical conclusion is that there will be six figures of deaths. My grieving process is such that I haven't accepted that yet, and still hope it will magically go away.

For some perspective 620,000 people die each year.

The current panic seems to be risking double counting these deaths.

This is my relevant to my point about moving the number by 0.1% for all this economic damage

Can you clarify what you mean?

Let's pick 250,000* die from C19 this year

Let's say 200,000 of those would have died already this year of say cancer, lung disease, etc. For this year 200k people will die of C19 and 420k of diseases. This is where the double counting panic comes in.

That leaves 50k people(that I refer to the 0.1%). We are doing all this economic damage for these 50k people and many of these would have died in the next 1-5 years anyway.

This are not easy thoughts to have but what is the risk this economic damage will also kill 50k people. So we impact the futures of the other 65.9m of us massively with no gain.


*One of the numbers being used for possible number of deaths.

You can't though. That's the price you pay for having a civilised society. If you went down that route I think there would be anarchy and you could forget democracy a dictatorship would need to be in place to control a Country.

And we don't risk anarchy and a breakdown in society with the current society and ecomonic shutdown?

I'm happy we are doing this to stop the NHS failing but sometimes hard decisions have to be taken

kingstongraham

Where's the "200k out of the 250k" would have died this year come from? Pure speculation?

mrfpb

I was thinking number of deaths was a good measure until I read that Russia has had no deaths, and only 145 identified cases.

Incidentally, if I were drawing a trend line on a graph, I'd say UK deaths are doubling every two days. That would indicate a couple of thousand by the end of next week, as the measures put in since Monday won't have had time to have slowed things down. We'll have to wait a few weeks to see what difference the measures have made.

Jeremy.89

surrey_commuter said:

kingstongraham said:

Pross said:

Genuine question, why go from the days after the 10th death rather than from the first confirmed case?

I just thought that means it's the point at which it has really taken hold and the numbers are starting to move.

For reference, 6 days after the 10th death in Spain, they were at 133 (compared to UK today at 104). 4 days later, yesterday's number was 533.

Italy are 22 days on from the 10th death, and are at 2,975 deaths.

Anyone think of a good reason why we are not about to see these numbers?

Because our Govt had the benefit of learning from their experiences and adapted their decision making accordingly?

This should mean that we escape relatively lightly in line with Japan, Korea and Singapore. Building on their experience and knowledge we should be able to better their experience.

That's dependant on being able to replicate what those countries have done. My feeling is containing the spread like that wouldn't work in the west, in which case its a case of flatten the curve, cross fingers, and ride it out.

coopster_the_1st

kingstongraham said:

Where's the "200k out of the 250k" would have died this year come from? Pure speculation?

Yes, rough guess. I was using it to represent the example of double counting which is distorting the total death numbers from C19

kingstonian

Regarding school closures in the UK, my wife is a teacher in a primary school and will be teaching as usual for the next 2 weeks - they are keeping the school open for all children of “key workers”. The same is the case for the secondary school that my eldest son attends.

thecycleclinic

Me and my wife are not key workers so come Monday I will be doing home school and I'll have to work in the evening. This is what I did when Erika was born so here we go again.

My take is there is 12 months of this disruption to come. I just wonder if there will be a functioning economy at the end of it.

kingstongraham

coopster_the_1st said:

kingstongraham said:

Where's the "200k out of the 250k" would have died this year come from? Pure speculation?

Yes, rough guess. I was using it to represent the example of double counting which is distorting the total death numbers from C19

Do you know that the numbers in the Imperial study do not already account for this?

rjsterry

mrfpb said:

I was thinking number of deaths was a good measure until I read that Russia has had no deaths, and only 145 identified cases.

This. Myanmar claim to have had zero cases. Plus the recovery figures are pretty meaningless as testing varies widely from country to country.

capt_slog

kingstonian said:

Regarding school closures in the UK, my wife is a teacher in a primary school and will be teaching as usual for the next 2 weeks - they are keeping the school open for all children of “key workers”. The same is the case for the secondary school that my eldest son attends.

My son works in a private school. He's spitting mad because he has to go in. Speculation is that the place will be used for children of key workers as a lot of the parents are doctors. He think s that some kids will come from elsewhere too, not sure how that will work

I was trying to cool him off earlier today, I didn't mind him griping if he thinks he's being asked to work somewhere unsafe, but griping because "I wanted to be off work on full pay like lots of others" I won't listen to.

rjsterry

kingstongraham said:

coopster_the_1st said:

kingstongraham said:

Where's the "200k out of the 250k" would have died this year come from? Pure speculation?

Yes, rough guess. I was using it to represent the example of double counting which is distorting the total death numbers from C19

Do you know that the numbers in the Imperial study do not already account for this?

I don't think it's likely that they have deducted numbers of people who were likely to die anyway within a similar time period from the results of their modelling.

ballysmate

capt_slog said:

kingstonian said:

Regarding school closures in the UK, my wife is a teacher in a primary school and will be teaching as usual for the next 2 weeks - they are keeping the school open for all children of “key workers”. The same is the case for the secondary school that my eldest son attends.

My son works in a private school. He's spitting mad because he has to go in. Speculation is that the place will be used for children of key workers as a lot of the parents are doctors. He think s that some kids will come from elsewhere too, not sure how that will work

I was trying to cool him off earlier today, I didn't mind him griping if he thinks he's being asked to work somewhere unsafe, but griping because "I wanted to be off work on full pay like lots of others" I won't listen to.

Good on yer, Slog.

rick_chasey

You know re the economics - we actually *want* a recession essentially, to prevent a huge ‘excess’ (for want of a better term) of deaths.

Pross

rick_chasey said:

You know re the economics - we actually *want* a recession essentially, to prevent a huge ‘excess’ (for want of a better term) of deaths.

You've lost me now!

rjsterry

Pross said:

rick_chasey said:

You know re the economics - we actually *want* a recession essentially, to prevent a huge ‘excess’ (for want of a better term) of deaths.

You've lost me now!

I think RC just means that without social distancing, school closures, etc. - which will necessarily cause a recession - the death toll would be much higher.

rjsterry

Worrying report on the radio this morning that suggested that the effects of the virus on younger people in the US is much more pronounced. Something like 40% of hospitalisation has been for under-60s.

rick_chasey

The govt is literally telling whole chunks of the economy to temporarily shut down.

As such you want to make sure as much of it is in tact when you want to open it again.

Longshot

kingstonian said:

Regarding school closures in the UK, my wife is a teacher in a primary school and will be teaching as usual for the next 2 weeks - they are keeping the school open for all children of “key workers”. The same is the case for the secondary school that my eldest son attends.

Yes, my wife is also working inher primary school next week although the Head is looking to resist having to open the school for a handful of kids. This means thatI'm likely to work from home from next week to look after my 10 year old as teachers aren't key workers.

pblakeney

rick_chasey said:

The govt is literally telling whole chunks of the economy to temporarily shut down.

As such you want to make sure as much of it is in tact when you want to open it again.

My sister is stuck in Egypt (stupid of her to go but another matter) but the icing on the cake is that her 4 grown kids have all been paid off this week.
Dark days ahead.

kingstonian

capt_slog said:

kingstonian said:

Regarding school closures in the UK, my wife is a teacher in a primary school and will be teaching as usual for the next 2 weeks - they are keeping the school open for all children of “key workers”. The same is the case for the secondary school that my eldest son attends.

My son works in a private school. He's spitting mad because he has to go in. Speculation is that the place will be used for children of key workers as a lot of the parents are doctors. He think s that some kids will come from elsewhere too, not sure how that will work

I was trying to cool him off earlier today, I didn't mind him griping if he thinks he's being asked to work somewhere unsafe, but griping because "I wanted to be off work on full pay like lots of others" I won't listen to.

I'm glad you "had a word"

Longshot

More on schools:

"Schools supporting key workers' children will be expected to remain open during the Easter holidays, while officials are considering who is classed under this category."

From BBC News.

Expecting a teacher-led meltdown.

Given that teachers' kids do appear to be included on the go-to-school list do I assume that my kids won't be getting their Easter holiday this year? Could the Education Secretary please be the one to tell them?

kingstonian

Interesting news yesterday evening that a test to detect antibodies is expected to be available very soon (potentially even next week). Also, a trial of a new treatment designed to reduce the effect of Covid-19 on the lungs is about to kick off too.