The big Coronavirus thread

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  • DeVlaeminck
    DeVlaeminck Posts: 9,104
    A rather less optimistic take on the low German mortality stats and whether they will prove typical.

    I think the mortality stats will vary hugely as to what % of the vulnerable can get a respirator/intensive care. In Germany so far that will be 100% - and probably pretty much all cases so far will have been officially diagnosed - so in an ideal world 0.25% will still die. In Italy we know far fewer have had access to a ventilator and that may account for part of their higher death rate. Doesn't the UK have a pretty low ventilators per head of population ratio?
    [Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
  • mr_goo
    mr_goo Posts: 3,770
    Mrs Goo tried to get an online shopping slot last night. In New Forest/Christchurch area you're looking at 2-3 weeks for earliest possible delivery. Some supermarket chains booked beyond that. Tried Ocado which had a waiting list...number 3,756 in a queue to access the store online !!!
    Always be yourself, unless you can be Aaron Rodgers....Then always be Aaron Rodgers.
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    Ireland has turned the national GAA stadium Croke Park into a drive thru testing centre

    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    kingstonian said:

    rick_chasey said:

    So if you extrapolate the imperial research onto the US you get 4 million dead in 3 months.


    Which indicates to me that the basis of their modelling is flawed. I know that this is based on the "worst case, do absolutely nothing" scenario but 4 million dead makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.

    So that's on the assumption 70% get it at the rough death rate given the death rates both below and above intensive care capacity
    _
  • fenix
    fenix Posts: 5,437
    coopster_the_1st said:

    fenix said:

    Similar scenes with the Brits abroad in Spain.

    Got any evidence of that? Or are you just spreading fake news?

    From what I can see the Spanish have gone draconian on locals and tourists alike and tourists are not allowed to leave their hotel to go to the beach

    There is video on Twitter - Spanish Police shepherding drunken Brits back with back up having to arrive. Is it really so hard to imagine that this would happen ? And why would I make this stuff up ? Bizarre.
  • fenix
    fenix Posts: 5,437
    TheBigBean said:

    kingstongraham said:

    Glastonbury gone. Basically if anything was going to happen before end of June, seems like you can forget it.

    Realistically, it will be longer than that.
    Probably. Glastonbury takes about 3 months to set up though - so there is no chance that they can be working normally in the run up to the festival date. It's the sensible decision.
  • fenix
    fenix Posts: 5,437
    kingstongraham said:

    I haven't been outside all week, so it's not entirely sunk in for me yet. That's been bad enough.

    Selfridges is closing after today - they'll be back, but given the state of the high street, I wonder what bricks and mortar establishments are never coming back after this.

    The owners of Malls like the Trafford Centre are in financial trouble. If big malls were to fail - would this help the High Street ? I hope it would.
  • joe2019
    joe2019 Posts: 1,338
  • kingstonian
    kingstonian Posts: 2,847
    rick_chasey said:

    kingstonian said:

    rick_chasey said:

    So if you extrapolate the imperial research onto the US you get 4 million dead in 3 months.


    Which indicates to me that the basis of their modelling is flawed. I know that this is based on the "worst case, do absolutely nothing" scenario but 4 million dead makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.

    So that's on the assumption 70% get it at the rough death rate given the death rates both below and above intensive care capacity
    Yeah, but as others have said the real death rate is markedly less than what's currently being reported. Just in the UK we have had around 2000 confirmed cases and 71 deaths, approx a 3% death rate. But the Health officials openly say they know the true number of cases is way higher, possibly 10x higher, so the death rate drops to 0.3%.

    Of course, none of us truly know how this will play out. Hopefully, and understandably, we'll discover after the event that governments turned up the fear levels as a mechanism to ensure it can be better controlled than would otherwise be the case. Time will tell.
  • Longshot
    Longshot Posts: 940
    fenix said:

    kingstongraham said:

    I haven't been outside all week, so it's not entirely sunk in for me yet. That's been bad enough.

    Selfridges is closing after today - they'll be back, but given the state of the high street, I wonder what bricks and mortar establishments are never coming back after this.

    The owners of Malls like the Trafford Centre are in financial trouble. If big malls were to fail - would this help the High Street ? I hope it would.

    No. If the owners of the malls fail there'll be administrators/receivers to keep the centres open.

    The only hope for independent retailers (High Street is misleading as most are full of national chains) is that people's buying habits change away from price and convenience.
    You can fool some of the people all of the time. Concentrate on those people.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    kingstonian said:

    rick_chasey said:

    kingstonian said:

    rick_chasey said:

    So if you extrapolate the imperial research onto the US you get 4 million dead in 3 months.


    Which indicates to me that the basis of their modelling is flawed. I know that this is based on the "worst case, do absolutely nothing" scenario but 4 million dead makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.

    So that's on the assumption 70% get it at the rough death rate given the death rates both below and above intensive care capacity
    Yeah, but as others have said the real death rate is markedly less than what's currently being reported. Just in the UK we have had around 2000 confirmed cases and 71 deaths, approx a 3% death rate. But the Health officials openly say they know the true number of cases is way higher, possibly 10x higher, so the death rate drops to 0.3%.

    Of course, none of us truly know how this will play out. Hopefully, and understandably, we'll discover after the event that governments turned up the fear levels as a mechanism to ensure it can be better controlled than would otherwise be the case. Time will tell.
    I would argue non-Govt fear levels are leading the charge. Tube journeys were 20% down last week when Boris was still in phase 1. Anecdotally schools are emptying by the day.
  • bompington
    bompington Posts: 7,674
    surrey_commuter said:

    Anecdotally schools are emptying by the day.

    We had over 30% off yesterday.

    Today? I don't know, cos I'm now working from home on medical advice: I'm in more than one high risk category and we have had explicit instructions from on high.

    Feel like a total fraud sitting here on my computer at home... still, it gives a good opportunity to test teaching via MS Teams. So far: one simple trial assignment for an S3 (Y9) class - out of 30 students, 4 have submitted. Even after I told them that if they didn't complete it I would come and cough on them.
  • bompington
    bompington Posts: 7,674
    ... and that's with another teacher there to help. Maybe that was the problem...
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    bompington said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    Anecdotally schools are emptying by the day.

    We had over 30% off yesterday.

    Today? I don't know, cos I'm now working from home on medical advice: I'm in more than one high risk category and we have had explicit instructions from on high.

    Feel like a total fraud sitting here on my computer at home... still, it gives a good opportunity to test teaching via MS Teams. So far: one simple trial assignment for an S3 (Y9) class - out of 30 students, 4 have submitted. Even after I told them that if they didn't complete it I would come and cough on them.
    By the time Boris gets round to it there will be nothing left to shut
  • Longshot
    Longshot Posts: 940
    edited March 2020
    surrey_commuter said:



    By the time Boris gets round to it there will be nothing left to shut


    Why the rush to shut schools? It's been said by many that they are trying to avoid the knock-on effects, especially in terms of NHS staff. It's not implausible.

    Look, I'm no fan of Boris, but just make sure your hatred isn't clouding your thinking.
    You can fool some of the people all of the time. Concentrate on those people.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    kingstonian said:

    rick_chasey said:

    kingstonian said:

    rick_chasey said:

    So if you extrapolate the imperial research onto the US you get 4 million dead in 3 months.


    Which indicates to me that the basis of their modelling is flawed. I know that this is based on the "worst case, do absolutely nothing" scenario but 4 million dead makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.

    So that's on the assumption 70% get it at the rough death rate given the death rates both below and above intensive care capacity
    Yeah, but as others have said the real death rate is markedly less than what's currently being reported. Just in the UK we have had around 2000 confirmed cases and 71 deaths, approx a 3% death rate. But the Health officials openly say they know the true number of cases is way higher, possibly 10x higher, so the death rate drops to 0.3%.

    Of course, none of us truly know how this will play out. Hopefully, and understandably, we'll discover after the event that governments turned up the fear levels as a mechanism to ensure it can be better controlled than would otherwise be the case. Time will tell.
    Not quite sure you're understanding.

    Once you run out of intensive care, you've run out. Funnily enough,mortality rates shoot up from that point on.
    _
  • pangolin
    pangolin Posts: 6,648
    Longshot said:

    surrey_commuter said:



    By the time Boris gets round to it there will be nothing left to shut


    Why the rush to shut schools? It's been said by many that they are trying to avoid the knock-on effects, especially in terms of NHS staff. It's not implausible.

    Look, I'm no fan of Boris, but just make sure your hatred isn't clouding your thinking.
    Longshot said:

    surrey_commuter said:



    By the time Boris gets round to it there will be nothing left to shut


    Why the rush to shut schools? It's been said by many that they are trying to avoid the knock-on effects, especially in terms of NHS staff. It's not implausible.

    Look, I'm no fan of Boris, but just make sure your hatred isn't clouding your thinking.
    I'm dreading them shutting nurseries. Nursery have told us that as things stand they'd still expect fees. Work have told us that as things stand if we have to look after kids it's either annual leave or unpaid leave. Stuck in the middle.
    - Genesis Croix de Fer
    - Dolan Tuono
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,329
    bompington said:

    ... and that's with another teacher there to help. Maybe that was the problem...

    You are now on an extended holiday. Possibly right through the summer. 😱
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • rolf_f
    rolf_f Posts: 16,015
    Apparently the US response to Corona virus is big queues of people outside gun shops stockpiling guns and ammo.......
    At least it puts our own levels of idiocy into context.
    Faster than a tent.......
  • Longshot
    Longshot Posts: 940
    rolf_f said:

    Apparently the US response to Corona virus is big queues of people outside gun shops stockpiling guns and ammo.......
    At least it puts our own levels of idiocy into context.


    How else are you going to protect your toilet roll stockpiles?
    You can fool some of the people all of the time. Concentrate on those people.
  • Longshot
    Longshot Posts: 940
    My own personal experience of everybody else working from home so far this week is that you're all either out on your bikes or watching Pornhub because there is absolutely SFA going on anywhere. No emails, no calls, nothing.
    You can fool some of the people all of the time. Concentrate on those people.
  • kingstonian
    kingstonian Posts: 2,847
    rick_chasey said:

    kingstonian said:

    rick_chasey said:

    kingstonian said:

    rick_chasey said:

    So if you extrapolate the imperial research onto the US you get 4 million dead in 3 months.


    Which indicates to me that the basis of their modelling is flawed. I know that this is based on the "worst case, do absolutely nothing" scenario but 4 million dead makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.

    So that's on the assumption 70% get it at the rough death rate given the death rates both below and above intensive care capacity
    Yeah, but as others have said the real death rate is markedly less than what's currently being reported. Just in the UK we have had around 2000 confirmed cases and 71 deaths, approx a 3% death rate. But the Health officials openly say they know the true number of cases is way higher, possibly 10x higher, so the death rate drops to 0.3%.

    Of course, none of us truly know how this will play out. Hopefully, and understandably, we'll discover after the event that governments turned up the fear levels as a mechanism to ensure it can be better controlled than would otherwise be the case. Time will tell.
    Not quite sure you're understanding.

    Once you run out of intensive care, you've run out. Funnily enough,mortality rates shoot up from that point on.

    I’m understanding it, alright.
  • DeVlaeminck
    DeVlaeminck Posts: 9,104
    pangolin said:

    Longshot said:

    surrey_commuter said:



    By the time Boris gets round to it there will be nothing left to shut


    Why the rush to shut schools? It's been said by many that they are trying to avoid the knock-on effects, especially in terms of NHS staff. It's not implausible.

    Look, I'm no fan of Boris, but just make sure your hatred isn't clouding your thinking.
    Longshot said:

    surrey_commuter said:



    By the time Boris gets round to it there will be nothing left to shut


    Why the rush to shut schools? It's been said by many that they are trying to avoid the knock-on effects, especially in terms of NHS staff. It's not implausible.

    Look, I'm no fan of Boris, but just make sure your hatred isn't clouding your thinking.
    I'm dreading them shutting nurseries. Nursery have told us that as things stand they'd still expect fees. Work have told us that as things stand if we have to look after kids it's either annual leave or unpaid leave. Stuck in the middle.

    I don't think nurseries can shut and still charge a fee tbh.
    [Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    Longshot said:

    surrey_commuter said:



    By the time Boris gets round to it there will be nothing left to shut


    Why the rush to shut schools? It's been said by many that they are trying to avoid the knock-on effects, especially in terms of NHS staff. It's not implausible.

    Look, I'm no fan of Boris, but just make sure your hatred isn't clouding your thinking.
    My annoyance is based upon his flawed thinking which to me is steeped in arrogance.

    How can he only just have decided that upping the number of daily tests from 5,000 to 25,000 is a good idea. If they are available why have we not been doing it.

    We are in the very fortunate position of being behind the rest of the world yet we are refusing to learn lessons from other countries and seem determined to do our own thing.
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,918
    DeVlaeminck said:

    pangolin said:

    Longshot said:

    surrey_commuter said:



    By the time Boris gets round to it there will be nothing left to shut


    Why the rush to shut schools? It's been said by many that they are trying to avoid the knock-on effects, especially in terms of NHS staff. It's not implausible.

    Look, I'm no fan of Boris, but just make sure your hatred isn't clouding your thinking.
    Longshot said:

    surrey_commuter said:



    By the time Boris gets round to it there will be nothing left to shut


    Why the rush to shut schools? It's been said by many that they are trying to avoid the knock-on effects, especially in terms of NHS staff. It's not implausible.

    Look, I'm no fan of Boris, but just make sure your hatred isn't clouding your thinking.
    I'm dreading them shutting nurseries. Nursery have told us that as things stand they'd still expect fees. Work have told us that as things stand if we have to look after kids it's either annual leave or unpaid leave. Stuck in the middle.

    I don't think nurseries can shut and still charge a fee tbh.
    I don't think you understand nurseries. They will absolutely try. I don't think people will pay though. For example, I phoned to ask if I could look around one, and they asked if I had paid my registration fee? A non-refundable fee for looking around. No other businesses operate like that. It was even non-refundable in the event they were unable to offer a place.


  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,918
    kingstonian said:

    rick_chasey said:

    kingstonian said:

    rick_chasey said:

    So if you extrapolate the imperial research onto the US you get 4 million dead in 3 months.


    Which indicates to me that the basis of their modelling is flawed. I know that this is based on the "worst case, do absolutely nothing" scenario but 4 million dead makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.

    So that's on the assumption 70% get it at the rough death rate given the death rates both below and above intensive care capacity
    Yeah, but as others have said the real death rate is markedly less than what's currently being reported. Just in the UK we have had around 2000 confirmed cases and 71 deaths, approx a 3% death rate. But the Health officials openly say they know the true number of cases is way higher, possibly 10x higher, so the death rate drops to 0.3%.

    Of course, none of us truly know how this will play out. Hopefully, and understandably, we'll discover after the event that governments turned up the fear levels as a mechanism to ensure it can be better controlled than would otherwise be the case. Time will tell.
    You haven't included the number of people that are currently infected and will go on to die.
  • morstar
    morstar Posts: 6,190
    kingstonian said:

    rick_chasey said:

    kingstonian said:

    rick_chasey said:

    So if you extrapolate the imperial research onto the US you get 4 million dead in 3 months.


    Which indicates to me that the basis of their modelling is flawed. I know that this is based on the "worst case, do absolutely nothing" scenario but 4 million dead makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.

    So that's on the assumption 70% get it at the rough death rate given the death rates both below and above intensive care capacity
    Yeah, but as others have said the real death rate is markedly less than what's currently being reported. Just in the UK we have had around 2000 confirmed cases and 71 deaths, approx a 3% death rate. But the Health officials openly say they know the true number of cases is way higher, possibly 10x higher, so the death rate drops to 0.3%.

    Agreed, but conversely, assuming there are 20,000 cases, it hasn't yet run it's course in all of those individuals so a proportion of the 20,000 are going to die but haven't yet.

    So basically, it's informed guesswork. Hopefully 2% is way too high but very difficult to either verify or disprove.
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,463
    surrey_commuter said:

    Longshot said:

    surrey_commuter said:



    By the time Boris gets round to it there will be nothing left to shut


    Why the rush to shut schools? It's been said by many that they are trying to avoid the knock-on effects, especially in terms of NHS staff. It's not implausible.

    Look, I'm no fan of Boris, but just make sure your hatred isn't clouding your thinking.
    My annoyance is based upon his flawed thinking which to me is steeped in arrogance.

    How can he only just have decided that upping the number of daily tests from 5,000 to 25,000 is a good idea. If they are available why have we not been doing it.

    We are in the very fortunate position of being behind the rest of the world yet we are refusing to learn lessons from other countries and seem determined to do our own thing.
    They haven't been available. I was listening to a manufacturer this morning saying they've upped production to try to meet demand.

    You're continuing to talk as though Johnson is making all the decisions off his own back rather than on the basis of the advice he is being given. Surely if he was being arrogant he would be ignoring his advisers and doing what he felt was best for himself?
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    Pross said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    Longshot said:

    surrey_commuter said:



    By the time Boris gets round to it there will be nothing left to shut


    Why the rush to shut schools? It's been said by many that they are trying to avoid the knock-on effects, especially in terms of NHS staff. It's not implausible.

    Look, I'm no fan of Boris, but just make sure your hatred isn't clouding your thinking.
    My annoyance is based upon his flawed thinking which to me is steeped in arrogance.

    How can he only just have decided that upping the number of daily tests from 5,000 to 25,000 is a good idea. If they are available why have we not been doing it.

    We are in the very fortunate position of being behind the rest of the world yet we are refusing to learn lessons from other countries and seem determined to do our own thing.
    They haven't been available. I was listening to a manufacturer this morning saying they've upped production to try to meet demand.

    You're continuing to talk as though Johnson is making all the decisions off his own back rather than on the basis of the advice he is being given. Surely if he was being arrogant he would be ignoring his advisers and doing what he felt was best for himself?
    If you have ever sat in a room with advisors you will know that they are hardly ever unanimous and tend to advise you on what decisions you could take.

    Why did Mr money no object, not get production of ventilators and tests increased two months ago?
  • Jeremy.89
    Jeremy.89 Posts: 457
    Arguably being a few weeks behind shows the UK is doing something right though...

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