The big Coronavirus thread

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  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,915
    The Guardian is reporting that hospitalisations have increased by 49% in one week.
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,349
    TheBigBean said:

    The Guardian is reporting that hospitalisations have increased by 49% in one week.


    Ah, yes, over two weeks, but still fairly low in comparison with previous waves (currently 9546). Still a lot of uncertainty about how it'll play out.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/30/christmas-omicron-uk-pandemic-hospitalisations
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  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,915
    rjsterry said:

    Just seen Southern are running no trains to Victoria (for non-Londoners, one of 3 major termini serving Surrey, Sussex and Kent as well as the southern half of Greater London) until 10th January as they have so many train crew off sick. Would imagine the other rail operators have similar issues and it's just a matter of time before they cancel large parts of their service.

    They are running trains to London Bridge though which was always going to be the case for a few days anyway, so it may not be as bad you say.
  • womack
    womack Posts: 566
    A member of the Portuguese equivalent of our JCVI is half suggesting that getting everyone infected with Omicron may be the quickest way to bring Covid to an end.

    The thinking being I suppose that having had Covid you build up the anti bodies and are less likely to develop the more serious version.
  • ddraver
    ddraver Posts: 26,697
    Herdos Immunitos?
    We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
    - @ddraver
  • Dorset_Boy
    Dorset_Boy Posts: 7,559
    ddraver said:

    As suspected...

    https://www.thelocal.fr/20211230/breaking-france-suspends-transit-ban-for-brits-living-in-eu/

    Sounds like a eurotunnel lawyer read the small print no one in france had thought to read...

    Crisis over.

    Hardly.
    The article says there's now a 'period of tolerance' and the suggestion is that will last for another 30 hours or so.
    So no, the crisis isn't over. The French Government are going to still make it extremely difficult for British Citizens resident in the EU to return home.
    It's stupid enough screwing their ski industry, but it is massively w@nkerish to prevent people returning home, or even visiting properties they own in France.
  • ddraver
    ddraver Posts: 26,697
    Nonsense - it will be as "temporary" as the current travel restrictions...
    We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
    - @ddraver
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,463
    rjsterry said:

    Just seen Southern are running no trains to Victoria (for non-Londoners, one of 3 major termini serving Surrey, Sussex and Kent as well as the southern half of Greater London) until 10th January as they have so many train crew off sick. Would imagine the other rail operators have similar issues and it's just a matter of time before they cancel large parts of their service.

    Many on here, including me, have previously criticised those who continue going into work with a cold or other mild illness. I guess this might show the impact of what would happen if everyone did stay home in those situations.
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,167
    briantrumpet said:

    TheBigBean said:

    The Guardian is reporting that hospitalisations have increased by 49% in one week.


    Ah, yes, over two weeks, but still fairly low in comparison with previous waves (currently 9546). Still a lot of uncertainty about how it'll play out.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/30/christmas-omicron-uk-pandemic-hospitalisations
    What data is he using?

    Not this....

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/hospitals
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,553
    TheBigBean said:

    rjsterry said:

    Just seen Southern are running no trains to Victoria (for non-Londoners, one of 3 major termini serving Surrey, Sussex and Kent as well as the southern half of Greater London) until 10th January as they have so many train crew off sick. Would imagine the other rail operators have similar issues and it's just a matter of time before they cancel large parts of their service.

    They are running trains to London Bridge though which was always going to be the case for a few days anyway, so it may not be as bad you say.
    Presumably not diverting the Victoria trains to LB as there wouldn't be the capacity.
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  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,349
    First.Aspect said:

    briantrumpet said:

    TheBigBean said:

    The Guardian is reporting that hospitalisations have increased by 49% in one week.


    Ah, yes, over two weeks, but still fairly low in comparison with previous waves (currently 9546). Still a lot of uncertainty about how it'll play out.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/30/christmas-omicron-uk-pandemic-hospitalisations
    What data is he using?

    Not this....

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/hospitals

    Dunno, though your link only goes to 19 December. Still, the point stands that we are still way below the previous peak, and so talk of percentage increases, while not to be disregarded (as they help spot developing trends), again don't give the full picture.
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  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,167
    briantrumpet said:

    First.Aspect said:

    briantrumpet said:

    TheBigBean said:

    The Guardian is reporting that hospitalisations have increased by 49% in one week.


    Ah, yes, over two weeks, but still fairly low in comparison with previous waves (currently 9546). Still a lot of uncertainty about how it'll play out.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/30/christmas-omicron-uk-pandemic-hospitalisations
    What data is he using?

    Not this....

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/hospitals

    Dunno, though your link only goes to 19 December. Still, the point stands that we are still way below the previous peak, and so talk of percentage increases, while not to be disregarded (as they help spot developing trends), again don't give the full picture.
    It goes to the 22nd (those are the latest ons stats), but if they are at 9?4k hospitalisations are still about where therly were in early November and as far as I can tell didn't drop as low as 6.5k in the interim.

    It is going to climb I know, but there is too much journalism that is just about having a narrative and finding the expert to fit. There are enough epedemiologists at UK universities that you can be sure to find one who is in a bad mood at any given time, of you make enough calls.
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,349
    First.Aspect said:

    briantrumpet said:

    First.Aspect said:

    briantrumpet said:

    TheBigBean said:

    The Guardian is reporting that hospitalisations have increased by 49% in one week.


    Ah, yes, over two weeks, but still fairly low in comparison with previous waves (currently 9546). Still a lot of uncertainty about how it'll play out.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/30/christmas-omicron-uk-pandemic-hospitalisations
    What data is he using?

    Not this....

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/hospitals

    Dunno, though your link only goes to 19 December. Still, the point stands that we are still way below the previous peak, and so talk of percentage increases, while not to be disregarded (as they help spot developing trends), again don't give the full picture.
    It goes to the 22nd (those are the latest ons stats), but if they are at 9?4k hospitalisations are still about where therly were in early November and as far as I can tell didn't drop as low as 6.5k in the interim.

    It is going to climb I know, but there is too much journalism that is just about having a narrative and finding the expert to fit. There are enough epedemiologists at UK universities that you can be sure to find one who is in a bad mood at any given time, of you make enough calls.

    Updates were done 22/23, but still think the latest is 19 December in any of those charts, and some a day or three before that. Might be overlooking though.

    But yes, nothing too alarming there yet. But that doesn't sell papers.
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  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,167
    briantrumpet said:

    First.Aspect said:

    briantrumpet said:

    First.Aspect said:

    briantrumpet said:

    TheBigBean said:

    The Guardian is reporting that hospitalisations have increased by 49% in one week.


    Ah, yes, over two weeks, but still fairly low in comparison with previous waves (currently 9546). Still a lot of uncertainty about how it'll play out.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/30/christmas-omicron-uk-pandemic-hospitalisations
    What data is he using?

    Not this....

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/hospitals

    Dunno, though your link only goes to 19 December. Still, the point stands that we are still way below the previous peak, and so talk of percentage increases, while not to be disregarded (as they help spot developing trends), again don't give the full picture.
    It goes to the 22nd (those are the latest ons stats), but if they are at 9?4k hospitalisations are still about where therly were in early November and as far as I can tell didn't drop as low as 6.5k in the interim.

    It is going to climb I know, but there is too much journalism that is just about having a narrative and finding the expert to fit. There are enough epedemiologists at UK universities that you can be sure to find one who is in a bad mood at any given time, of you make enough calls.

    Updates were done 22/23, but still think the latest is 19 December in any of those charts, and some a day or three before that. Might be overlooking though.

    But yes, nothing too alarming there yet. But that doesn't sell papers.
    Might be right. Watching footie. Far more important.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,152
    What's currently the point of all these lateral flow tests outside of those coming into contact with vulnerable people?
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,167
    kingstongraham said:

    What's currently the point of all these lateral flow tests outside of those coming into contact with vulnerable people?

    They are "am I likely to kill gran" tests.
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,349
    First.Aspect said:

    kingstongraham said:

    What's currently the point of all these lateral flow tests outside of those coming into contact with vulnerable people?

    They are "am I likely to kill gran" tests.
    Actually, not very likely. if they are fully vaccinated (whatever the count is up to now). Thankfully it's not the care home carnage it was previously. But I guess you still don't personally want to increase the risk even so. Leave that up to other people.
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  • mully79
    mully79 Posts: 904
    Given my 70 year old parents picked up Omicron by visiting my poorly Nan in a care home (care home did have known cases) despite testing, sanitising and masks i'd say all measures and testing are borderline pointless now.

    Its hard to even see how every kid in school wont get it the first week back.
    1 in 30 people infected is almost one child per class.
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,349
    FFS, Graun. Get a grip.

    The UK reported 189,213 new Covid cases in the past 24 hours, smashing Wednesday’s record-breaking tally of 183,037 positive tests.

    Thursday’s new infections represent a 116% rise on the 87,565 new infections reported two weeks ago today – which was itself then a record-breaking daily tally.

    A further 332 people died from Covid-related causes on Thursday, a 127% climb on the 146 deaths recorded two weeks ago.


    Absolutely no recognition that the data around Christmas is lumpy. How many deaths reported in the previous two days? And 'smashing"? How about "just 4% higher"?

    I'll get my mate Dave Speigelhalter on you.
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  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,915
    rjsterry said:

    TheBigBean said:

    rjsterry said:

    Just seen Southern are running no trains to Victoria (for non-Londoners, one of 3 major termini serving Surrey, Sussex and Kent as well as the southern half of Greater London) until 10th January as they have so many train crew off sick. Would imagine the other rail operators have similar issues and it's just a matter of time before they cancel large parts of their service.

    They are running trains to London Bridge though which was always going to be the case for a few days anyway, so it may not be as bad you say.
    Presumably not diverting the Victoria trains to LB as there wouldn't be the capacity.
    Think there are some diversions.
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,463
    kingstongraham said:

    What's currently the point of all these lateral flow tests outside of those coming into contact with vulnerable people?

    Everyone was getting told to test before visiting friends and relatives. In a way the shortage of LFTs is a good sign as it suggests people are being cautious before mixing.

    Possibly also the unvaccinated doing tests so they can provide a result for a Covid pass (in which case they could well just be getting them for a QR code and not actually testing at all as I suspect the overlap between refusing the vaccine and properly taking a test is very low).
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,463
    I'd be removing the sick pay for people who fall ill if they aren't vaccinated now.

    My wife's colleague continues to refuse to have the vaccine (it has moved on from 'you don't know what's in it and they rushed the testing' to 'the vaccine is pointless as vaccinated people are catching it'). She is about to go into her 5th period of paid self-isolation, including having had it once, as she is a contact of someone who has tested positive and isn't double jabbed.
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,328
    Pross said:

    I'd be removing the sick pay for people who fall ill if they aren't vaccinated now.

    Vaccinated friend in Canada reports that the major company that he works for has told employees to report for work as normal in February. Proof of vaccination is required.
    Find another job is the alternative.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
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  • Wheelspinner
    Wheelspinner Posts: 6,695
    Pross said:

    I'd be removing the sick pay for people who fall ill if they aren't vaccinated now.

    My wife's colleague continues to refuse to have the vaccine (it has moved on from 'you don't know what's in it and they rushed the testing' to 'the vaccine is pointless as vaccinated people are catching it'). She is about to go into her 5th period of paid self-isolation, including having had it once, as she is a contact of someone who has tested positive and isn't double jabbed.

    I’d agree. I think it’s overdue for people to start realising what the real costs of all this stuff has been.

    The policy here has completely changed in the last week or so to one which very much looks like the government(s) have decided enough is enough. The vax rates are extremely high, and boosters are rolling out too, all at an astronomical cost in social and economic terms to date.

    Now, it appears the policy is “We’ve spent umpty-billions of dollars giving you - the public - the opportunity to protect yourself. If you haven’t taken that option by now, unlucky.”

    There’s also a strong push for people who test positive now to simply stay home and get over it yourself - stop relying on government health services to hold your hand and ask how you’re feeling every hour. In short, MTFU, metaphorically speaking. This is mostly driven by the complete overload of pathology resources trying to process tests for hundreds of thousands of people who just want to go on holiday or visit family interstate. Mind you, the messaging has always been “go get tested for any symptoms at all” so they only have themselves to blame.

    I’d also think that the concept of free health care treatment needs a tweak in this case, but depends on just what the impact really ends up being I suppose. I think the unvaccinated-by-choice should start wearing *some* of the cost of any public hospital treatment for Covid specific illness. The message may start filtering through just how expensive it really is to provide those services.

    The state budget here currently has almost 40% of its total devoted solely to public health care, and it’s still rising. That is economically unsustainable.

    I suspect the reality is that the “experts” are gambling on the hope that Omicron and whatever subsequent variants come along are sufficiently less harmful that hospitalisations (and the associated public health cost impact) won’t be too badly hit. They’re putting the onus back on the pharma companies to keep the vaccines effective longer term, and will inevitably look to shift the cost of them back to the public directly.

    Flu shots here aren’t free for everyone here for example.


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  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,152
    Pross said:

    kingstongraham said:

    What's currently the point of all these lateral flow tests outside of those coming into contact with vulnerable people?

    Everyone was getting told to test before visiting friends and relatives. In a way the shortage of LFTs is a good sign as it suggests people are being cautious before mixing.

    Possibly also the unvaccinated doing tests so they can provide a result for a Covid pass (in which case they could well just be getting them for a QR code and not actually testing at all as I suspect the overlap between refusing the vaccine and properly taking a test is very low).
    I know what was said, but does it seem to have worked? And given that answer, what's the point continuing withthat advice now?

  • Ben6899
    Ben6899 Posts: 9,686
    Wheelspinner said:

    Flu shots here aren’t free for everyone here for example.

    Who has to pay for flu shots, out of interest? Here, they’re free to those deemed vulnerable (age-, illness- or medication-related).

    Anyone else can have one, but supplies are not prioritised and there’s a cost (about a tenner).
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  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,152
    briantrumpet said:

    FFS, Graun. Get a grip.

    The UK reported 189,213 new Covid cases in the past 24 hours, smashing Wednesday’s record-breaking tally of 183,037 positive tests.

    Thursday’s new infections represent a 116% rise on the 87,565 new infections reported two weeks ago today – which was itself then a record-breaking daily tally.

    A further 332 people died from Covid-related causes on Thursday, a 127% climb on the 146 deaths recorded two weeks ago.


    Absolutely no recognition that the data around Christmas is lumpy. How many deaths reported in the previous two days? And 'smashing"? How about "just 4% higher"?

    I'll get my mate Dave Speigelhalter on you.
    It has a factual inaccuracy in it. "A further 332 people died from Covid-related causes on Thursday," is not true.

  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,349
    kingstongraham said:

    briantrumpet said:

    FFS, Graun. Get a grip.

    The UK reported 189,213 new Covid cases in the past 24 hours, smashing Wednesday’s record-breaking tally of 183,037 positive tests.

    Thursday’s new infections represent a 116% rise on the 87,565 new infections reported two weeks ago today – which was itself then a record-breaking daily tally.

    A further 332 people died from Covid-related causes on Thursday, a 127% climb on the 146 deaths recorded two weeks ago.


    Absolutely no recognition that the data around Christmas is lumpy. How many deaths reported in the previous two days? And 'smashing"? How about "just 4% higher"?

    I'll get my mate Dave Speigelhalter on you.
    It has a factual inaccuracy in it. "A further 332 people died from Covid-related causes on Thursday," is not true.


    Exactly.
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  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,463
    The people who report a 'surge' in deaths seem to also be keen to make the point about low reporting rates following weekends and Bank Holidays so it feels like a deliberate need to be pushing an agenda.
  • mully79
    mully79 Posts: 904
    Had my booster this morning. Thankfully took my English NHS vaccination cards. I assumed the English and Welsh NHS would share information but i'm not sure they do now.

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