The big Coronavirus thread

blazing_saddles

briantrumpet said:

briantrumpet said:

I haven't heard back again from the Graun about my complaint. Somehow I doubt they'll be saying "Covid deaths down nearly 90%", even if it would be using the same excuse they are using (comparing one day's figures with the one a week earlier) for their misleading hospital admissions figure.

I'm not letting go yet... had a reply by return from David Spiegelhalter (he of statistics). I just feel that there ought to be a clear directive on the use of uncontextualised (and therefore probably misleading) statistics in a reputable newspaper. I hadn't expected the weak defence offered by the Readers Editor, I must admit.

Same thing happened on Radio 4 Wales news this morning.
Presenter casually drops the fact that hospitalisations are at their highest since March, into the conversation, without giving any actual numbers. Which of course would have poured cold water on the paranoia pyromania much loved by media.

briantrumpet

orraloon said:

Ooh, gone full Spiegelhalter! Get the More or Less: Behind the Stats crew on it as well. They like highlighting BS use of numbers.

Well, I did give them a chance to make some half-hearted "Well, it's a live blog, and in retrospect, perhaps though they were accurate in themselves, we should have qualified them" apology.

Stevo_666

briantrumpet said:

briantrumpet said:

I haven't heard back again from the Graun about my complaint. Somehow I doubt they'll be saying "Covid deaths down nearly 90%", even if it would be using the same excuse they are using (comparing one day's figures with the one a week earlier) for their misleading hospital admissions figure.

in a reputable newspaper.

Which one is that then?

TheBigBean

briantrumpet said:

orraloon said:

Ooh, gone full Spiegelhalter! Get the More or Less: Behind the Stats crew on it as well. They like highlighting BS use of numbers.

Well, I did give them a chance to make some half-hearted "Well, it's a live blog, and in retrospect, perhaps though they were accurate in themselves, we should have qualified them" apology.

I find the live blog to be more balanced (or accurate) than the rest of paper because it hasn't had time to be editorialised.

rjsterry

Stevo_666 said:

briantrumpet said:

rick_chasey said:

Anyway it is beginning to look like my doom scenario is not playing out and with the change in behaviours the Uk might come through this fine without further restrictions 🤞🏻🤞🏻

Let's indeed hope so. It is looking more likely by the day.

I'm still wondering when the screaming headlines about the number of infections does a pivot to "This is actually good news", if the connection between cases and deaths really is all but broken.

I mentioned not too far upthread that it will become endemic, but probably will become mild enough that we treat it like another flu variant.

May or may not. The serious symptoms are all well after the person has become infectious, so no evolutionary advantage in not causing these symptoms.

Stevo_666

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

briantrumpet said:

rick_chasey said:

Anyway it is beginning to look like my doom scenario is not playing out and with the change in behaviours the Uk might come through this fine without further restrictions 🤞🏻🤞🏻

Let's indeed hope so. It is looking more likely by the day.

I'm still wondering when the screaming headlines about the number of infections does a pivot to "This is actually good news", if the connection between cases and deaths really is all but broken.

I mentioned not too far upthread that it will become endemic, but probably will become mild enough that we treat it like another flu variant.

May or may not. The serious symptoms are all well after the person has become infectious, so no evolutionary advantage in not causing these symptoms.

It seems to be the way it is heading with Omicron.

First.Aspect

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

briantrumpet said:

rick_chasey said:

Anyway it is beginning to look like my doom scenario is not playing out and with the change in behaviours the Uk might come through this fine without further restrictions 🤞🏻🤞🏻

Let's indeed hope so. It is looking more likely by the day.

I'm still wondering when the screaming headlines about the number of infections does a pivot to "This is actually good news", if the connection between cases and deaths really is all but broken.

I mentioned not too far upthread that it will become endemic, but probably will become mild enough that we treat it like another flu variant.

May or may not. The serious symptoms are all well after the person has become infectious, so no evolutionary advantage in not causing these symptoms.

But by chance the evolutionary advantage of Omicron (transmissibility) comes about because it is better able to infect the upper airway, and need not be as optimized at entering other types of cell. This seems to correlate with slightly reduced mortality.

But the main reduction in harm is coming from immunity. It evades antibodies, so can infect and be transmitted, but not the T cell and other responses, which means it isn't as harmful. This is a win-win, potentially.

If this version had hit in early 2020, case mortality rates would have been 90% as high, but matched with an R0 much much higher than 3. What's the estimate now? R0 = 7? That would have been pretty awful.

Stevo_666

https://telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/29/omicron-causes-just-quarter-deaths-previous-waves-first-data/

"Omicron causes just a quarter of the deaths of patients as previous waves, the first major study into mortality data suggests.

Researchers at the University of Pretoria and the National Institute of Communicable Diseases in South Africa followed patients admitted to a large hospital in the City of Tshwane, Gauteng Province, which was the original epicentre of the omicron outbreak.

They found that just 4.5 per cent died during the omicron wave, compared with 21.3 per cent before the variant took hold.

The team said that if the findings were reproduced globally there would be a ‘complete decoupling of case and death rates’ that would end the epidemic and usher in an endemic phase."

Jezyboy

First.Aspect said:

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

briantrumpet said:

rick_chasey said:

Anyway it is beginning to look like my doom scenario is not playing out and with the change in behaviours the Uk might come through this fine without further restrictions 🤞🏻🤞🏻

Let's indeed hope so. It is looking more likely by the day.

I'm still wondering when the screaming headlines about the number of infections does a pivot to "This is actually good news", if the connection between cases and deaths really is all but broken.

I mentioned not too far upthread that it will become endemic, but probably will become mild enough that we treat it like another flu variant.

May or may not. The serious symptoms are all well after the person has become infectious, so no evolutionary advantage in not causing these symptoms.

But by chance the evolutionary advantage of Omicron (transmissibility) comes about because it is better able to infect the upper airway, and need not be as optimized at entering other types of cell. This seems to correlate with slightly reduced mortality.

But the main reduction in harm is coming from immunity. It evades antibodies, so can infect and be transmitted, but not the T cell and other responses, which means it isn't as harmful. This is a win-win, potentially.

If this version had hit in early 2020, case mortality rates would have been 90% as high, but matched with an R0 much much higher than 3. What's the estimate now? R0 = 7? That would have been pretty awful.

Presumably at that point zero covid becomes the key strategy?

Covid does seem to hit a goldilocks point of being too serious to do nothing, but not scary enough to persue eradication.

rjsterry

Stevo_666 said:

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

briantrumpet said:

rick_chasey said:

Anyway it is beginning to look like my doom scenario is not playing out and with the change in behaviours the Uk might come through this fine without further restrictions 🤞🏻🤞🏻

Let's indeed hope so. It is looking more likely by the day.

I'm still wondering when the screaming headlines about the number of infections does a pivot to "This is actually good news", if the connection between cases and deaths really is all but broken.

I mentioned not too far upthread that it will become endemic, but probably will become mild enough that we treat it like another flu variant.

May or may not. The serious symptoms are all well after the person has become infectious, so no evolutionary advantage in not causing these symptoms.

It seems to be the way it is heading with Omicron.

We got lucky with that mutation, but most of the 'mildness' is down to the levels of vaccination. Plenty of the world is not vaccinated. We may not be so lucky with the next more transmissible variant.

loltoride

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

briantrumpet said:

rick_chasey said:

Anyway it is beginning to look like my doom scenario is not playing out and with the change in behaviours the Uk might come through this fine without further restrictions 🤞🏻🤞🏻

Let's indeed hope so. It is looking more likely by the day.

I'm still wondering when the screaming headlines about the number of infections does a pivot to "This is actually good news", if the connection between cases and deaths really is all but broken.

I mentioned not too far upthread that it will become endemic, but probably will become mild enough that we treat it like another flu variant.

May or may not. The serious symptoms are all well after the person has become infectious, so no evolutionary advantage in not causing these symptoms.

It seems to be the way it is heading with Omicron.

We got lucky with that mutation, but most of the 'mildness' is down to the levels of vaccination. Plenty of the world is not vaccinated. We may not be so lucky with the next more transmissible variant.

Hopefully that is the case but can anyone advise what is behind the high death rates in Europe it makes no sense, I thought they were vaccinated similar to the UK or even better in some cases.

TheBigBean

loltoride said:

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

briantrumpet said:

rick_chasey said:

Anyway it is beginning to look like my doom scenario is not playing out and with the change in behaviours the Uk might come through this fine without further restrictions 🤞🏻🤞🏻

Let's indeed hope so. It is looking more likely by the day.

I'm still wondering when the screaming headlines about the number of infections does a pivot to "This is actually good news", if the connection between cases and deaths really is all but broken.

I mentioned not too far upthread that it will become endemic, but probably will become mild enough that we treat it like another flu variant.

May or may not. The serious symptoms are all well after the person has become infectious, so no evolutionary advantage in not causing these symptoms.

It seems to be the way it is heading with Omicron.

We got lucky with that mutation, but most of the 'mildness' is down to the levels of vaccination. Plenty of the world is not vaccinated. We may not be so lucky with the next more transmissible variant.

Hopefully that is the case but can anyone advise what is behind the high death rates in Europe it makes no sense, I thought they were vaccinated similar to the UK or even better in some cases.

There was an article published by the BBC a while ago which looked at the number of deaths that were likely if everyone caught covid (before Omicron). England had a very low number due to a high level vaccinations in older age groups. A lot of the countries that have vaccinated a higher percentage of the population have done so by vaccinating very low risk groups e.g. kids.

loltoride

TheBigBean said:

loltoride said:

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

briantrumpet said:

rick_chasey said:

Anyway it is beginning to look like my doom scenario is not playing out and with the change in behaviours the Uk might come through this fine without further restrictions 🤞🏻🤞🏻

A lot of the countries that have vaccinated a higher percentage of the population have done so by vaccinating very low risk groups e.g. kids.

That makes sense so for the EU it has been vaccinate whoever you can to keep figures on par with rest of developed nations I would of thought most countries followed WHO advice.

I wonder how this will end.

loltoride

That makes sense so for the EU it has been vaccinate whoever you can to keep figures on par with rest of developed nations I would of thought most countries followed WHO advice.

I wonder how this will end.

pblakeney

loltoride said:

That makes sense so for the EU it has been vaccinate whoever you can to keep figures on par with rest of developed nations I would of thought most countries followed WHO advice.

I wonder how this will end.

With a whimper hopefully.

TheBigBean

It's hard to find the relevant comparable data. England has boosted 89.9% of over 60s who had the first jab. Germany has boosted 60.5% of its population of over 60s and double jabbed 87.2%. Fairly sure, the UK has double jabbed well over 90% of over 60s.

First.Aspect

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

briantrumpet said:

rick_chasey said:

Anyway it is beginning to look like my doom scenario is not playing out and with the change in behaviours the Uk might come through this fine without further restrictions 🤞🏻🤞🏻

Let's indeed hope so. It is looking more likely by the day.

I'm still wondering when the screaming headlines about the number of infections does a pivot to "This is actually good news", if the connection between cases and deaths really is all but broken.

I mentioned not too far upthread that it will become endemic, but probably will become mild enough that we treat it like another flu variant.

May or may not. The serious symptoms are all well after the person has become infectious, so no evolutionary advantage in not causing these symptoms.

It seems to be the way it is heading with Omicron.

We got lucky with that mutation, but most of the 'mildness' is down to the levels of vaccination. Plenty of the world is not vaccinated. We may not be so lucky with the next more transmissible variant.

Isn't it kind of what we were seeing with Delta, only more slowly? The antibodies seem to be quite spoke protein specific, and high levels in your blood quite short lived. The rest of the immune response not so sensitive.

Reading/listening about other coronaviruses, this seems to be the pattern. They don't mutate particularly quickly or dramatically, but instead rely on immunity not lasting very long, meaning you can get more or less the same virus multiple times, get slightly sick, pass it on, recover.

First.Aspect

Good autocorrect there.

I prefer "spoke protein".

blazing_saddles

208,000 cases reported in France in the last 24 hours.
O Macron.

kingstonian

blazing_saddles said:

208,000 cases reported in France in the last 24 hours.
O Macron.

Damn. I’ve heard from friends there that it is ripping through the country, but >200k is insane.

briantrumpet

kingstonian said:

blazing_saddles said:

208,000 cases reported in France in the last 24 hours.
O Macron.

Damn. I’ve heard from friends there that it is ripping through the country, but >200k is insane.

This looks like quite a good place to follow it... looks like Paris is doing it big time, but my home turf (Drome) which was top has now peaked and is easing off.

https://covidtracker.fr/dashboard-departements/

First.Aspect

Imagine how much worse it would have been if the English had gone skiing.

kingstonian

briantrumpet said:

kingstonian said:

blazing_saddles said:

208,000 cases reported in France in the last 24 hours.
O Macron.

Damn. I’ve heard from friends there that it is ripping through the country, but >200k is insane.

This looks like quite a good place to follow it... looks like Paris is doing it big time, but my home turf (Drome) which was top has now peaked and is easing off.

https://covidtracker.fr/dashboard-departements/

Thanks for sharing the link.

briantrumpet

First.Aspect said:

Imagine how much worse it would have been if the English had gone skiing.

Still hoping my hunch that Macron will have said whatever the French is for "Oh fvck it" and reopened the border before February half term, and that doing three tests to make the travel possible will have been deemed to be pointless.

briantrumpet

Meanwhile, the UK data update is still awaiting the NI data, and is now due at 6pm...

rjsterry

I wonder what the effect the shortage of tests has had on our figures today.

rick_chasey

Testing capacity was such a big issue at the beginning of each wave I find it remarkable it’s no longer discussed.

If we can legitimately test millions a day then there had been a massive improvement and you’d think we’d have heard more about it.

DeVlaeminck

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

briantrumpet said:

rick_chasey said:

Anyway it is beginning to look like my doom scenario is not playing out and with the change in behaviours the Uk might come through this fine without further restrictions 🤞🏻🤞🏻

Let's indeed hope so. It is looking more likely by the day.

I'm still wondering when the screaming headlines about the number of infections does a pivot to "This is actually good news", if the connection between cases and deaths really is all but broken.

I mentioned not too far upthread that it will become endemic, but probably will become mild enough that we treat it like another flu variant.

May or may not. The serious symptoms are all well after the person has become infectious, so no evolutionary advantage in not causing these symptoms.

Not sure that's true. IF Omicron just makes most people feel less unwell and leaves more asymptomatic it will have an evolutionary advantage over Delta even if it weren't more infectious.

If you feel fine you are less likely to get tested, more likely to carry on going to work or whatever etc. Even with a lag before symptoms become apparent a variant that causes fewer symptoms in more people will have an evolutionary advantage.

wallace_and_gromit

rick_chasey said:

Testing capacity was such a big issue at the beginning of each wave I find it remarkable it’s no longer discussed.

If we can legitimately test millions a day then there had been a massive improvement and you’d think we’d have heard more about it.

There are stories daily across the media now about the lack of LFTs and the difficulties booking a PCR test. I think Her Majesty’s opposition is still on its Christmas hols though so the situation hasn’t got additional publicity via quotes from Labour MPs. And lots of journalists are on hols too.

Prior to Omicron, HMG was happy to refer to its “world beating test and trace capacity” but it was a bit of a non-story at that stage.

blazing_saddles

rjsterry said:

I wonder what the effect the shortage of tests has had on our figures today.

The opposite.

183,000