The big Coronavirus thread

kingstonian

briantrumpet said:

Pross said:

TheBigBean said:

Either there is something up with France's statistics or it has been well and truly omicroned.

France reported 179,807 new confirmed cases in a 24-hour period today, by far the highest number since the start of the pandemic.

The previous highest daily number, 104,611 cases, was recorded on Saturday.

It was nice of them to ban us Brits from travelling to their disease ridden country to protect ourselves.

For obvious reasons I'm waiting to see if they'll do a Gallic shrug, swear, and open up travel again. Strikes me at this point closed borders and testing is of minimal use: it's not going to stop it. I think they'd be better off saying to stay home for five days if you've got a cold/covid.

In a selfish way I hope they do as I’m meant to be going there in early Feb.

A few close friends in France (Loire and Vendée), some of them getting on in age, have gone down with Covid in the past week. And they know plenty of others that have gone down with it in the past 2 weeks. Seems to be Omicron in nature, with milder symptoms than Delta being reported so far.

Pross

briantrumpet said:

Pross said:

TheBigBean said:

Either there is something up with France's statistics or it has been well and truly omicroned.

France reported 179,807 new confirmed cases in a 24-hour period today, by far the highest number since the start of the pandemic.

The previous highest daily number, 104,611 cases, was recorded on Saturday.

It was nice of them to ban us Brits from travelling to their disease ridden country to protect ourselves.

For obvious reasons I'm waiting to see if they'll do a Gallic shrug, swear, and open up travel again. Strikes me at this point closed borders and testing is of minimal use: it's not going to stop it. I think they'd be better off saying to stay home for five days if you've got a cold/covid.

Two years running Macron has acted as though this is a uniquely British disease he's trying to keep out of France at this time of year. It's a bizarre reaction but I guess it plays well with a section of his target electorate (as it probably would with an element of Brits the other way around).

briantrumpet

Pross said:

briantrumpet said:

Pross said:

TheBigBean said:

Either there is something up with France's statistics or it has been well and truly omicroned.

France reported 179,807 new confirmed cases in a 24-hour period today, by far the highest number since the start of the pandemic.

The previous highest daily number, 104,611 cases, was recorded on Saturday.

It was nice of them to ban us Brits from travelling to their disease ridden country to protect ourselves.

For obvious reasons I'm waiting to see if they'll do a Gallic shrug, swear, and open up travel again. Strikes me at this point closed borders and testing is of minimal use: it's not going to stop it. I think they'd be better off saying to stay home for five days if you've got a cold/covid.

Two years running Macron has acted as though this is a uniquely British disease he's trying to keep out of France at this time of year. It's a bizarre reaction but I guess it plays well with a section of his target electorate (as it probably would with an element of Brits the other way around).

He's probably getting his own back for the UK putting France on the red list, briefly, last summer, when the UK misread the data, but left it a little while before rolling back again. I think if Macron doesn't relent before the February half term there will be righteous howls from the skiing lobby.

TheBigBean

Pross said:

briantrumpet said:

Pross said:

TheBigBean said:

Either there is something up with France's statistics or it has been well and truly omicroned.

France reported 179,807 new confirmed cases in a 24-hour period today, by far the highest number since the start of the pandemic.

The previous highest daily number, 104,611 cases, was recorded on Saturday.

It was nice of them to ban us Brits from travelling to their disease ridden country to protect ourselves.

For obvious reasons I'm waiting to see if they'll do a Gallic shrug, swear, and open up travel again. Strikes me at this point closed borders and testing is of minimal use: it's not going to stop it. I think they'd be better off saying to stay home for five days if you've got a cold/covid.

Two years running Macron has acted as though this is a uniquely British disease he's trying to keep out of France at this time of year. It's a bizarre reaction but I guess it plays well with a section of his target electorate (as it probably would with an element of Brits the other way around).

I think of Macron as a bit like Trump, but that's perhaps a subject for another thread.

TheBigBean

It's hard to imagine how the World Darts Championship could result in so many positives.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/darts/59812911

Stevo_666

Pross said:

briantrumpet said:

Pross said:

TheBigBean said:

Either there is something up with France's statistics or it has been well and truly omicroned.

France reported 179,807 new confirmed cases in a 24-hour period today, by far the highest number since the start of the pandemic.

The previous highest daily number, 104,611 cases, was recorded on Saturday.

It was nice of them to ban us Brits from travelling to their disease ridden country to protect ourselves.

For obvious reasons I'm waiting to see if they'll do a Gallic shrug, swear, and open up travel again. Strikes me at this point closed borders and testing is of minimal use: it's not going to stop it. I think they'd be better off saying to stay home for five days if you've got a cold/covid.

Two years running Macron has acted as though this is a uniquely British disease he's trying to keep out of France at this time of year. It's a bizarre reaction but I guess it plays well with a section of his target electorate (as it probably would with an element of Brits the other way around).

We all know why he is doing it. Hopefully next year the French electorate will eliminate the Omacron variant, a nasty little virus that is threatening to spread right across Europe

kingstongraham

TheBigBean said:

It's hard to imagine how the World Darts Championship could result in so many positives.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/darts/59812911

he "never expected this outcome as I thought I did everything in my possibility to avoid it".

Everything other than going to an indoor venue with thousands of unmasked people.

pblakeney

TheBigBean said:

It's hard to imagine how the World Darts Championship could result in so many positives.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/darts/59812911

Well, someone on here predicted it. 😉

Pross

TheBigBean said:

It's hard to imagine how the World Darts Championship could result in so many positives.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/darts/59812911

Who could have predicted such a thing?

TheBigBean

kingstongraham said:

TheBigBean said:

It's hard to imagine how the World Darts Championship could result in so many positives.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/darts/59812911

he "never expected this outcome as I thought I did everything in my possibility to avoid it".

Everything other than going to an indoor venue with thousands of unmasked people.

Thousands of unmasked people who spend the day shouting and singing.

rick_chasey

Like the football match you went to?

I guess emirates is a bit of a library nowadays.

kingstongraham

rick_chasey said:

Like the football match you went to?

I guess emirates is a bit of a library nowadays.

I think they play outdoors.

rick_chasey

kingstongraham said:

rick_chasey said:

Like the football match you went to?

I guess emirates is a bit of a library nowadays.

I think they play outdoors.

I don’t really care but back in March 2020 there was a big deal about football matches being big superspreading events but sure.

First.Aspect

rick_chasey said:

kingstongraham said:

rick_chasey said:

Like the football match you went to?

I guess emirates is a bit of a library nowadays.

I think they play outdoors.

I don’t really care but back in March 2020 there was a big deal about football matches being big superspreading events but sure.

Its the travel to/from that is the main issue.

rick_chasey

Anyway it is beginning to look like my doom scenario is not playing out and with the change in behaviours the Uk might come through this fine without further restrictions 🤞🏻🤞🏻

briantrumpet

rick_chasey said:

Anyway it is beginning to look like my doom scenario is not playing out and with the change in behaviours the Uk might come through this fine without further restrictions 🤞🏻🤞🏻

Let's indeed hope so. It is looking more likely by the day.

I'm still wondering when the screaming headlines about the number of infections does a pivot to "This is actually good news", if the connection between cases and deaths really is all but broken.

rick_chasey

Need to go through a wave of infections where the health system survives comfortably

briantrumpet

I haven't heard back again from the Graun about my complaint. Somehow I doubt they'll be saying "Covid deaths down nearly 90%", even if it would be using the same excuse they are using (comparing one day's figures with the one a week earlier) for their misleading hospital admissions figure.

rjsterry

rick_chasey said:

Need to go through a wave of infections where the health system survives comfortably

This is rather the crux of it. Fewer dying is great, but if the mammoth backlog gets bigger every winter as a result, then that's only a partial win.

kingstongraham

rick_chasey said:

kingstongraham said:

rick_chasey said:

Like the football match you went to?

I guess emirates is a bit of a library nowadays.

I think they play outdoors.

I don’t really care but back in March 2020 there was a big deal about football matches being big superspreading events but sure.

Think about the way it spreads, and the number of people's air you are likely to be breathing in. There will be elements of a football match day that are high risk but the actual sitting in the stand watching the match and singing means you are exposed to those within a few seats/rows of you. Indoors all day, it's probably everyone there.

It's the same reason cancelling parkrun is ott - there's a couple of fairly low risk points, but nothing like being in a restaurant (or church).

rick_chasey

kingstongraham said:

rick_chasey said:

kingstongraham said:

rick_chasey said:

Like the football match you went to?

I guess emirates is a bit of a library nowadays.

I think they play outdoors.

I don’t really care but back in March 2020 there was a big deal about football matches being big superspreading events but sure.

Think about the way it spreads, and the number of people's air you are likely to be breathing in. There will be elements of a football match day that are high risk but the actual sitting in the stand watching the match and singing means you are exposed to those within a few seats/rows of you. Indoors all day, it's probably everyone there.

It's the same reason cancelling parkrun is ott - there's a couple of fairly low risk points, but nothing like being in a restaurant (or church).

There was lots of evidence showing that a few football matches were massive superspreader events in 2020; one of which really accelerated the problems in Bergamo and really made it the first European disaster zone of the pandemic.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-soccer-match-that-kicked-off-italys-coronavirus-disaster-11585752012

https://www.espn.com/soccer/italian-serie-a/story/4081211/how-atalantas-feel-good-champions-league-story-became-a-biological-bomb-for-coronavirus-in-italyspain

Evidence trumps theory and all that.

pblakeney

Cars, buses, trains, congestion in and out of the stadiums were the most likely times of spread rather than during the matches. Those events wouldn't have occurred without the matches though.

kingstongraham

rick_chasey said:

kingstongraham said:

rick_chasey said:

kingstongraham said:

rick_chasey said:

Like the football match you went to?

I guess emirates is a bit of a library nowadays.

I think they play outdoors.

I don’t really care but back in March 2020 there was a big deal about football matches being big superspreading events but sure.

Think about the way it spreads, and the number of people's air you are likely to be breathing in. There will be elements of a football match day that are high risk but the actual sitting in the stand watching the match and singing means you are exposed to those within a few seats/rows of you. Indoors all day, it's probably everyone there.

It's the same reason cancelling parkrun is ott - there's a couple of fairly low risk points, but nothing like being in a restaurant (or church).

There was lots of evidence showing that a few football matches were massive superspreader events in 2020; one of which really accelerated the problems in Bergamo and really made it the first European disaster zone of the pandemic.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-soccer-match-that-kicked-off-italys-coronavirus-disaster-11585752012

https://www.espn.com/soccer/italian-serie-a/story/4081211/how-atalantas-feel-good-champions-league-story-became-a-biological-bomb-for-coronavirus-in-italyspain

Evidence trumps theory and all that.

How would you assess the probability of the participants in the two sporting events of catching the virus from peoplein the audience?

briantrumpet

Well, it's only taken 21 months, but Johnson has managed to mutter the V word, and not washing hands.

I think everybody should enjoy New Year but in a cautious and sensible way.

Take a test, ventilation, think about others - but above all, get a booster.

Stevo_666

rick_chasey said:

Anyway it is beginning to look like my doom scenario is not playing out and with the change in behaviours the Uk might come through this fine without further restrictions 🤞🏻🤞🏻

Looks like it.

Stevo_666

briantrumpet said:

rick_chasey said:

Anyway it is beginning to look like my doom scenario is not playing out and with the change in behaviours the Uk might come through this fine without further restrictions 🤞🏻🤞🏻

Let's indeed hope so. It is looking more likely by the day.

I'm still wondering when the screaming headlines about the number of infections does a pivot to "This is actually good news", if the connection between cases and deaths really is all but broken.

I mentioned not too far upthread that it will become endemic, but probably will become mild enough that we treat it like another flu variant.

tailwindhome

Among the annual release of state papers, pandemic planning in NI from 1998

https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/state-papers-northern-ireland-pandemic-plan-feared-rapid-spread-as-china-opened-up-41189948.html

Pross

kingstongraham said:

rick_chasey said:

kingstongraham said:

rick_chasey said:

Like the football match you went to?

I guess emirates is a bit of a library nowadays.

I think they play outdoors.

I don’t really care but back in March 2020 there was a big deal about football matches being big superspreading events but sure.

Think about the way it spreads, and the number of people's air you are likely to be breathing in. There will be elements of a football match day that are high risk but the actual sitting in the stand watching the match and singing means you are exposed to those within a few seats/rows of you. Indoors all day, it's probably everyone there.

It's the same reason cancelling parkrun is ott - there's a couple of fairly low risk points, but nothing like being in a restaurant (or church).

Someone needs to explain all this to Drakeford.

briantrumpet

briantrumpet said:

I haven't heard back again from the Graun about my complaint. Somehow I doubt they'll be saying "Covid deaths down nearly 90%", even if it would be using the same excuse they are using (comparing one day's figures with the one a week earlier) for their misleading hospital admissions figure.

I'm not letting go yet... had a reply by return from David Spiegelhalter (he of statistics). I just feel that there ought to be a clear directive on the use of uncontextualised (and therefore probably misleading) statistics in a reputable newspaper. I hadn't expected the weak defence offered by the Readers Editor, I must admit.

orraloon

Ooh, gone full Spiegelhalter! Get the More or Less: Behind the Stats crew on it as well. They like highlighting BS use of numbers.