The big Coronavirus thread
Comments
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Them 20-39-y-o's be out partying, innum!
And no, >3600/100k on the national interactive map is still black. Though Wandsworth and Lambeth, who had been nudging that, are making a noticeable retreat already.
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Fake news alert, from the Graun?The number of patients in England admitted into hospital with Covid-19 has reached its highest level since mid-February after a 74% rise in a week.
NHS figures updated for the first time since the Christmas break show here were 1,281 Covid-19 hospital admissions in England on 25 December.
This was up 74% week-on-week and the highest number since 16 February. During the second wave of coronavirus, admissions peaked at 4,134 on 12 January.
In London, hospital admissions increased by 73% with 364 admissions reported on 25 December.
A total of 8,474 people were in hospital in England with Covid-19 as of 8am today – the highest number since 5 March.
The number of people in hospital is about 7.5% higher than a week ago.
That's not to say that there arent things to watch closely (or "worry about") in the figures, but they seem to be deliberately selectively quoting the worst figures they can find, without qualification.0 -
I read it as fear news.briantrumpet said:Fake news alert, from the Graun?
The number of patients in England admitted into hospital with Covid-19 has reached its highest level since mid-February after a 74% rise in a week.
NHS figures updated for the first time since the Christmas break show here were 1,281 Covid-19 hospital admissions in England on 25 December.
This was up 74% week-on-week and the highest number since 16 February. During the second wave of coronavirus, admissions peaked at 4,134 on 12 January.
In London, hospital admissions increased by 73% with 364 admissions reported on 25 December.
A total of 8,474 people were in hospital in England with Covid-19 as of 8am today – the highest number since 5 March.
The number of people in hospital is about 7.5% higher than a week ago.
That's not to say that there arent things to watch closely (or "worry about") in the figures, but they seem to be deliberately selectively quoting the worst figures they can find, without qualification.
If fear wasn’t the point then it would read hospital admissions are 30% of the 4134 admitted on 12th Jan 2021 peak.
The 8474 currently in hospital compares with 34336 in hospital in the 2nd wave peak.0 -
They've taken the numbers of new admissions week on week, to calculate a 75% rise in rates. So it's like a measure of acceleration in cases. But misleadingly presented.
If you scroll down the page there's another David Spiegelhalter article, with quotes from various statisticians about how to pick out offenses against statistics from news articles.0 -
mully79 said:
I read it as fear news.briantrumpet said:Fake news alert, from the Graun?
The number of patients in England admitted into hospital with Covid-19 has reached its highest level since mid-February after a 74% rise in a week.
NHS figures updated for the first time since the Christmas break show here were 1,281 Covid-19 hospital admissions in England on 25 December.
This was up 74% week-on-week and the highest number since 16 February. During the second wave of coronavirus, admissions peaked at 4,134 on 12 January.
In London, hospital admissions increased by 73% with 364 admissions reported on 25 December.
A total of 8,474 people were in hospital in England with Covid-19 as of 8am today – the highest number since 5 March.
The number of people in hospital is about 7.5% higher than a week ago.
That's not to say that there arent things to watch closely (or "worry about") in the figures, but they seem to be deliberately selectively quoting the worst figures they can find, without qualification.
If fear wasn’t the point then it would read hospital admissions are 30% of the 4134 admitted on 12th Jan 2021 peak.
The 8474 currently in hospital compares with 34336 in hospital in the 2nd wave peak.
I've actually sent a complaint to the Readers' Editor. I think it's very poor journalism, veering towards the dishonest.0 -
So where’s that lockdown you assured us would be happening today. I can’t wait for your next pearls of wisdom.Ncovidius said:
Quite right. Cellular response is king. The virus may be able to evade antibodies, but if it ever evades the cellular response, it really becomes a very serious problem.Mad_Malx said:The T cell response is important in immune memory (and other stuff).
Antibody levels are important in mopping up the infection, but drop over time (I think the half life is about 3 months).
It's likely that that the different vaccines have different effects on the magnitude and duration of antibody and T- cell responses. There is a fair consensus that Pfizer & Moderna give better a better antibody response. *If * , as suggested, there is an enhanced T cell response with AZ, but antibody levels have dropped, then you will likely still get mild disease but the antibody levels will be boosted again very rapidly so you can clear the infection more rapidly.
In the USA, the Johnson & Johnson vax was rolled out as one shot effective. This was never looking very likely from a scientific viewpoint, but probably helped uptake (of one shot) in a perhaps more sceptical population.2 -
Just to be clear, is that the total number of admissions that's 7.5% higher - or the number of admissions with Cov19..?briantrumpet said:
The number of people in hospital is about 7.5% higher than a week ago.
In other words, is it simply that the percentage of those admissions who test positive for covid has gone up - like it did in SA, where the majority of Cov19 cases in hospital were incidental diagnoses..?
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That's a decent summary of the current state of the Guardian.briantrumpet said:mully79 said:
I read it as fear news.briantrumpet said:Fake news alert, from the Graun?
The number of patients in England admitted into hospital with Covid-19 has reached its highest level since mid-February after a 74% rise in a week.
NHS figures updated for the first time since the Christmas break show here were 1,281 Covid-19 hospital admissions in England on 25 December.
This was up 74% week-on-week and the highest number since 16 February. During the second wave of coronavirus, admissions peaked at 4,134 on 12 January.
In London, hospital admissions increased by 73% with 364 admissions reported on 25 December.
A total of 8,474 people were in hospital in England with Covid-19 as of 8am today – the highest number since 5 March.
The number of people in hospital is about 7.5% higher than a week ago.
That's not to say that there arent things to watch closely (or "worry about") in the figures, but they seem to be deliberately selectively quoting the worst figures they can find, without qualification.
If fear wasn’t the point then it would read hospital admissions are 30% of the 4134 admitted on 12th Jan 2021 peak.
The 8474 currently in hospital compares with 34336 in hospital in the 2nd wave peak.
I've actually sent a complaint to the Readers' Editor. I think it's very poor journalism, veering towards the dishonest.0 -
The number with covid. It's the figure that John Campbell has been watching, along with ICU patients. If these keep reasonably steady & low while the infection rate rockets (as in SA), it's really good news.imposter2.0 said:
Just to be clear, is that the total number of admissions that's 7.5% higher - or the number of admissions with Cov19..?briantrumpet said:
The number of people in hospital is about 7.5% higher than a week ago.
In other words, is it simply that the percentage of those admissions who test positive for covid has gone up - like it did in SA, where the majority of Cov19 cases in hospital were incidental diagnoses..?1 -
7.5 % more people in hospital with covid than last week ie. about 600 more people. That’s not a surprise with a million more cases in just over a week.imposter2.0 said:
Just to be clear, is that the total number of admissions that's 7.5% higher - or the number of admissions with Cov19..?briantrumpet said:
The number of people in hospital is about 7.5% higher than a week ago.
In other words, is it simply that the percentage of those admissions who test positive for covid has gone up - like it did in SA, where the majority of Cov19 cases in hospital were incidental diagnoses..?0 -
Like for like 7 days 750000 cases. 600 more people in hospital.
0.08% of new cases have ended up in hospital
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It’s the same nonsense when they ask Doctors what they think needs to be done.
Find me a doctor who wants more patients so they can work more hours with no breaks.0 -
More interesting stuff from John Campbell, raising his eyebrows at the "17 days lag between infection & hospitalisation" figure, saying it is now 10 days, so London's hospitalisation rates should now be fully reflecting their infection rate (and as they haven't spiked massively, this is good news).
The badder news is for those large parts of the US population who are still unvaccinated, as omicron is only 11% less serious than delta for those who have had no vaccination, and given it's likely to reach everyone in fairly short order, it could well overwhelm US healthcare very rapidly.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n5uzrn4e0Wg 0 -
First.Aspect said:
They've taken the numbers of new admissions week on week, to calculate a 75% rise in rates. So it's like a measure of acceleration in cases. But misleadingly presented.
If you scroll down the page there's another David Spiegelhalter article, with quotes from various statisticians about how to pick out offenses against statistics from news articles.
Indeed. And they've ignored how many have been discharged. The most charitable explanation is that it's been very carelessly written.0 -
...“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0
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Interesting graph here:
No comment on hospitalisations but still…0 -
Wasnt the reporting issue, Wales , Scotland and Ireland havent reported their figures and as its a 7 day average the last point of the graph isnt zero.0
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mully79 said:
Wasnt the reporting issue, Wales , Scotland and Ireland havent reported their figures and as its a 7 day average the last point of the graph isnt zero.
Yes. If you go into here and change the graphs to "By nation", you can see the separate figures - England's now go up to 27 December, but Scotland hasn't reported since 20 December. I've used the separated-out ones in my reply to the Graun's response to my complaint.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare0 -
You'd really think he'd do his research to discover Scotland and Wales weren't reporting anything over the Christmas weekend - this was certainly pointed out on both Sky News and R5, and so you can't read anything into their figures until later this week.johngti said:Interesting graph here:
No comment on hospitalisations but still…0 -
A useful discussion on the incidental covid +ves in hospital and how they are still an extra load on hospitals even if their covid is asymptomatic.briantrumpet said:
The number with covid. It's the figure that John Campbell has been watching, along with ICU patients. If these keep reasonably steady & low while the infection rate rockets (as in SA), it's really good news.imposter2.0 said:
Just to be clear, is that the total number of admissions that's 7.5% higher - or the number of admissions with Cov19..?briantrumpet said:
The number of people in hospital is about 7.5% higher than a week ago.
In other words, is it simply that the percentage of those admissions who test positive for covid has gone up - like it did in SA, where the majority of Cov19 cases in hospital were incidental diagnoses..?
1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
briantrumpet said:mully79 said:
Wasnt the reporting issue, Wales , Scotland and Ireland havent reported their figures and as its a 7 day average the last point of the graph isnt zero.
Yes. If you go into here and change the graphs to "By nation", you can see the separate figures - England's now go up to 27 December, but Scotland hasn't reported since 20 December. I've used the separated-out ones in my reply to the Graun's response to my complaint.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare
Disappointing response to my complaint so far:Dear Brian
Thank you for your further email. The reference to 73% and 74% in the live feed relates to daily admissions, not total number of people in hospital on a given day (who will stay for varying lengths of time).
There were 1,281 admissions on Christmas Day in England, compared with 735 admissions a week earlier - so, I believe the figure in the live feed is correct.
Kind regards
Elisabeth Ribbans
Guardian readers' editor's office
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Dear Elizabeth – the 7.5% comes from your panel, though I do see that the figure of 8,240 (+615 on the week) is for the whole of the UK, and dates from 22 December, though, on that same day, 1,171 patients were admitted to hospital.
Digging deeper, I see that on the gov.uk website that for 25, 26, 27 Dec, the number in hospital *in England* were 7166, 7536 and 8474.
In other words, the total number in hospital with covid is increasing, but nowhere near a 74% increase, a figure which, in isolation, without context, or allowing for daily fluctuations in reporting numbers, is misleading, in my opinion.
Best wishes,
Brian
Thank you for your email. Please can you tell me where your figure of 7.5% comes from?
I have checked the data fro NHS England (attached), and the Guardian figures appear to me to be correct. There were 1,281 admissions on Christmas Day in England, compared with 735 a week earlier.
Kind regards
Elisabeth Ribbans
Guardian readers' editor's office
Dear Sir,
I'd like to complain about an item in your live feed: https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/dec/27/covid-news-live-australia-case-rise-continues-omicron-grounds-1000-more-us-flights
Please see that attached. The quoted statistics scream "Panic, panic!", but the less scary statistic is that hospital patients are up only 7.5% on the week, and though this is worrying, it's a long way out from the "74%" and "73%" in the panel. I think this is veering towards severely misleading, and gives ammunition to those who claim that the press are fear-mongering. I would expect The Guardian to be better than this.
Yours faithfully,0 -
It is clear where the number came from, but it doesn't match the headline and it is not a number that has previously, or at least regularly, been reported. For example, when it goes down.0
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Either there is something up with France's statistics or it has been well and truly omicroned.
France reported 179,807 new confirmed cases in a 24-hour period today, by far the highest number since the start of the pandemic.
The previous highest daily number, 104,611 cases, was recorded on Saturday.0 -
TheBigBean said:
Either there is something up with France's statistics or it has been well and truly omicroned.
France reported 179,807 new confirmed cases in a 24-hour period today, by far the highest number since the start of the pandemic.
The previous highest daily number, 104,611 cases, was recorded on Saturday.
I suspect a bit of both - Christmas hols will have screwed up people going for tests and the collection of the data, and, as London has shown, omicron spreads fast. Dr JC seems to think it's more a case of *when* everyone will get it, not if, and that London's spike will inevitably be replicated throughout the country.0 -
I've always accepted that I will get it at some point which is why I am interested to understand the effect on long term immunity of a covid infection when recently boosted versus one, say, six months later.briantrumpet said:TheBigBean said:Either there is something up with France's statistics or it has been well and truly omicroned.
France reported 179,807 new confirmed cases in a 24-hour period today, by far the highest number since the start of the pandemic.
The previous highest daily number, 104,611 cases, was recorded on Saturday.
I suspect a bit of both - Christmas hols will have screwed up people going for tests and the collection of the data, and, as London has shown, omicron spreads fast. Dr JC seems to think it's more a case of *when* everyone will get it, not if, and that London's spike will inevitably be replicated throughout the country.0 -
I caught it within a week of getting my booster (so well before the booster would have made a difference) and didn’t suffer too much. Smell/taste gone, minor headaches and aching hips was it.TheBigBean said:
I've always accepted that I will get it at some point which is why I am interested to understand the effect on long term immunity of a covid infection when recently boosted versus one, say, six months later.briantrumpet said:TheBigBean said:Either there is something up with France's statistics or it has been well and truly omicroned.
France reported 179,807 new confirmed cases in a 24-hour period today, by far the highest number since the start of the pandemic.
The previous highest daily number, 104,611 cases, was recorded on Saturday.
I suspect a bit of both - Christmas hols will have screwed up people going for tests and the collection of the data, and, as London has shown, omicron spreads fast. Dr JC seems to think it's more a case of *when* everyone will get it, not if, and that London's spike will inevitably be replicated throughout the country.
Mrs GTi is just double jabbed (about 6 months ago) and has barely noticed she’s got it. The positive test is the only sign really.0 -
TheBigBean said:
I've always accepted that I will get it at some point which is why I am interested to understand the effect on long term immunity of a covid infection when recently boosted versus one, say, six months later.briantrumpet said:TheBigBean said:Either there is something up with France's statistics or it has been well and truly omicroned.
France reported 179,807 new confirmed cases in a 24-hour period today, by far the highest number since the start of the pandemic.
The previous highest daily number, 104,611 cases, was recorded on Saturday.
I suspect a bit of both - Christmas hols will have screwed up people going for tests and the collection of the data, and, as London has shown, omicron spreads fast. Dr JC seems to think it's more a case of *when* everyone will get it, not if, and that London's spike will inevitably be replicated throughout the country.
Re France, lots of graphs 'n' stuff here: https://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2020/05/05/coronavirus-age-mortalite-departements-pays-suivez-l-evolution-de-l-epidemie-en-cartes-et-graphiques_6038751_4355770.html
I know it's going to make all the difference that they have banned eating and drinking on long-distance trains.0 -
It was nice of them to ban us Brits from travelling to their disease ridden country to protect ourselves.TheBigBean said:Either there is something up with France's statistics or it has been well and truly omicroned.
France reported 179,807 new confirmed cases in a 24-hour period today, by far the highest number since the start of the pandemic.
The previous highest daily number, 104,611 cases, was recorded on Saturday.2 -
Pross said:
It was nice of them to ban us Brits from travelling to their disease ridden country to protect ourselves.TheBigBean said:Either there is something up with France's statistics or it has been well and truly omicroned.
France reported 179,807 new confirmed cases in a 24-hour period today, by far the highest number since the start of the pandemic.
The previous highest daily number, 104,611 cases, was recorded on Saturday.
For obvious reasons I'm waiting to see if they'll do a Gallic shrug, swear, and open up travel again. Strikes me at this point closed borders and testing is of minimal use: it's not going to stop it. I think they'd be better off saying to stay home for five days if you've got a cold/covid.0 -
briantrumpet said:Pross said:
It was nice of them to ban us Brits from travelling to their disease ridden country to protect ourselves.TheBigBean said:Either there is something up with France's statistics or it has been well and truly omicroned.
France reported 179,807 new confirmed cases in a 24-hour period today, by far the highest number since the start of the pandemic.
The previous highest daily number, 104,611 cases, was recorded on Saturday.
For obvious reasons I'm waiting to see if they'll do a Gallic shrug, swear, and open up travel again. Strikes me at this point closed borders and testing is of minimal use: it's not going to stop it. I think they'd be better off saying to stay home for five days if you've got a cold/covid.
Graun:Paul Hunter, a professor in medicine at the University of East Anglia, told BBC Breakfast on Tuesday that people with Covid should eventually be allowed to “go about their normal lives” as they would with a common cold, noting that Covid is not going away.
“If the self-isolation rules are what’s making the pain associated with Covid, then we need to do that perhaps sooner rather than later. Maybe not quite just yet,” he said.0
