The big Coronavirus thread

shirley_basso

My sister has had all 3 pfizer and said the third made her feel like sh!t.

I am hearing rumours of a lockdown first week in Jan, with furlough to hospitality only. (source: chairman of the plc I work for, we have interests in a few hospitality businesses)

rjsterry

First.Aspect said:

pangolin said:

DeVlaeminck said:

pangolin said:

mrb123 said:

blazing_saddles said:

pangolin said:

Feel absolutely rough. Wonder why the flu vax never has this effect.

I wondered the same thing. I felt terrible for several days, after my booster too.
I was told that a lot more folks have been reporting side effects after number 3 jab, than after 1 and 2.

My reaction has been more similar to my first jab than my second. Wondering if it's due to the booster being a different type of vaccine.

Hmm maybe, I've had moderna for all 3

I had Moderna yesterday at a walk in - don't feel awful but have a bit of a headache, arm is a bit tender, felt weak yesterday went I went to the shop .

First two were AZ and felt fine with those.

My arm really hurts this time. Maybe I got unlucky with the nurse. Is it a myth that arm soreness is down to the skill of the jabber? What do they do differently?

I'll stop whining now.

I have had two who used the over-arm technique, straight in at right angles. My vet takes more care with our cats.

That's because cats will bite/scratch you the f*** up if they don't like the way they are being vaccinated.

blazing_saddles

rick_chasey said:

Moderna has the best efficacy vs omicron.

That's good to know since it was Moderna that made me feel like death warmed up.
Worth the 48 hours of misery.

briantrumpet

Will now ponder how long this present travel shït will last... do I change my flights to February or Easter? Hmm...

rick_chasey

briantrumpet said:

Will now ponder how long this present travel shït will last... do I change my flights to February or Easter? Hmm...

Not that my advice is worth anything but I would be inclined to do everything last minute rather than booking in advance.

pangolin

briantrumpet said:

Will now ponder how long this present travel shït will last... do I change my flights to February or Easter? Hmm...

Does it cost you much if you go for Feb and have to change to Easter? Feb does seem unlikely at the moment but who knows.

briantrumpet

rick_chasey said:

briantrumpet said:

Will now ponder how long this present travel shït will last... do I change my flights to February or Easter? Hmm...

Not that my advice is worth anything but I would be inclined to do everything last minute rather than booking in advance.

At least with Easyjet, all changes are free... as I'm stuck to school hols, better to get something booked in that can be changed, as when corridors become easier again, the pent-up demand will probably put pressure on places and prices, so at least if I've got something 'in the bag', I'll avoid a mad scramble.

My only thought is to wonder if it might be a precursor to some sort of French lockdown soon, and this is keeping people out who might get trapped. Seems unlikely, but then I thought a travel ban unlikely...

pblakeney

briantrumpet said:

Will now ponder how long this present travel shït will last... do I change my flights to February or Easter? Hmm...

Likewise, my advice is worth diddly squat but February is seeming too optimistic.
I am also hearing rumours of a lockdown on the 3rd/immediately after festivities.

rick_chasey

pblakeney said:

I am also hearing rumours of a lockdown on the 3rd/immediately after festivities.

I don't see any other interpretation of the numbers. They are really terrible. With the speed of infections, the fact that the hospitalisation rate will be a lot lower post-national vaccination will not matter as you will have too many people simultaneously ill.

Jezyboy

rick_chasey said:

pblakeney said:

I am also hearing rumours of a lockdown on the 3rd/immediately after festivities.

I don't see any other interpretation of the numbers. They are really terrible. With the speed of infections, the fact that the hospitalisation rate will be a lot lower post-national vaccination will not matter as you will have too many people simultaneously ill.

I think the thing that may prevent a post Christmas lockdown would be that the speed of spread is so quick that the wave has been crested by boxing day.

I'm sure someone with more time on their hands can start playing with some exponential curves in excel to see various scenarios though.

briantrumpet

pblakeney said:

briantrumpet said:

Will now ponder how long this present travel shït will last... do I change my flights to February or Easter? Hmm...

Likewise, my advice is worth diddly squat but February is seeming too optimistic.
I am also hearing rumours of a lockdown on the 3rd/immediately after festivities.

That's what I'm tending towards, especially if the French omicron wave is a couple of weeks behind the UK's.

rick_chasey

Jezyboy said:

rick_chasey said:

pblakeney said:

I am also hearing rumours of a lockdown on the 3rd/immediately after festivities.

I don't see any other interpretation of the numbers. They are really terrible. With the speed of infections, the fact that the hospitalisation rate will be a lot lower post-national vaccination will not matter as you will have too many people simultaneously ill.

I think the thing that may prevent a post Christmas lockdown would be that the speed of spread is so quick that the wave has been crested by boxing day.

I'm sure someone with more time on their hands can start playing with some exponential curves in excel to see various scenarios though.

I'm no expert but doubling within two days I think means the entire country will be infected within a few weeks - that's the kind of intensity no health service can cope with.

By the time we get to Christmas it will be massive.

Say only 1/5th of people go to hospital post-jab than pre jab - i think we're going to go way over 5x the number of people infected at any given point.

Jezyboy

rick_chasey said:

Jezyboy said:

rick_chasey said:

pblakeney said:

I am also hearing rumours of a lockdown on the 3rd/immediately after festivities.

I don't see any other interpretation of the numbers. They are really terrible. With the speed of infections, the fact that the hospitalisation rate will be a lot lower post-national vaccination will not matter as you will have too many people simultaneously ill.

I think the thing that may prevent a post Christmas lockdown would be that the speed of spread is so quick that the wave has been crested by boxing day.

I'm sure someone with more time on their hands can start playing with some exponential curves in excel to see various scenarios though.

I'm no expert but doubling within two days I think means the entire country will be infected within a few weeks - that's the kind of intensity no health service can cope with.

By the time we get to Christmas it will be massive.

Say only 1/5th of people go to hospital post-jab than pre jab - i think we're going to go way over 5x the number of people infected at any given point.

This is sort of my point. All other lockdowns have been too late from a point of view that it's taken too long to get case numbers to a safe level.

The hypothetical lockdown comes in at 3rd of Jan? Current numbers suggest that everyone will have been exposed by that point. So at that point what benefit does a lockdown give?

I do think it's going to be grim though.

rick_chasey

Sure but I can’t see the govt witnessing the hospitals failing to cope and not doing some more restrictions.

webboo

pangolin said:

DeVlaeminck said:

pangolin said:

mrb123 said:

blazing_saddles said:

pangolin said:

Feel absolutely rough. Wonder why the flu vax never has this effect.

I wondered the same thing. I felt terrible for several days, after my booster too.
I was told that a lot more folks have been reporting side effects after number 3 jab, than after 1 and 2.

My reaction has been more similar to my first jab than my second. Wondering if it's due to the booster being a different type of vaccine.

Hmm maybe, I've had moderna for all 3

I had Moderna yesterday at a walk in - don't feel awful but have a bit of a headache, arm is a bit tender, felt weak yesterday went I went to the shop .

First two were AZ and felt fine with those.

My arm really hurts this time. Maybe I got unlucky with the nurse. Is it a myth that arm soreness is down to the skill of the jabber? What do they do differently?

I'll stop whining now.

The technique is to hold the syringe like a dart, then a quick jab to get through the skin. Which is the area with nerves and the bit that hurts. However if you are a bit of a wuss and don’t like injections or faint at the sight of a needle. You may be rather tense and holding your self so your muscles are rigid. These is likely to lead to soreness in your arm.

DeVlaeminck

I suspect Boris' natural aversion to locking down will see us avoid any significant new restrictions - but we are back to what constitutes lock down.

I may be being overly optimistic but I suspect it will be sufficiently less virulent - whether because of vaccines, mutation or immunity through previous infection - that he'll be able to ride it out.

rick_chasey

For context, if my rough calculations aren't way off, if we go at the current run rate we'll be at 2.5m new cases **a day** by Christmas.

kingstongraham

What's the feeling on what Drakeford will do next? Any chance I won't be able to go from London to Wales for Xmas?

pangolin

webboo said:

pangolin said:

DeVlaeminck said:

pangolin said:

mrb123 said:

blazing_saddles said:

pangolin said:

Feel absolutely rough. Wonder why the flu vax never has this effect.

I wondered the same thing. I felt terrible for several days, after my booster too.
I was told that a lot more folks have been reporting side effects after number 3 jab, than after 1 and 2.

My reaction has been more similar to my first jab than my second. Wondering if it's due to the booster being a different type of vaccine.

Hmm maybe, I've had moderna for all 3

I had Moderna yesterday at a walk in - don't feel awful but have a bit of a headache, arm is a bit tender, felt weak yesterday went I went to the shop .

First two were AZ and felt fine with those.

My arm really hurts this time. Maybe I got unlucky with the nurse. Is it a myth that arm soreness is down to the skill of the jabber? What do they do differently?

I'll stop whining now.

The technique is to hold the syringe like a dart, then a quick jab to get through the skin. Which is the area with nerves and the bit that hurts. However if you are a bit of a wuss and don’t like injections or faint at the sight of a needle. You may be rather tense and holding your self so your muscles are rigid. These is likely to lead to soreness in your arm.

Nah I don't mind them. I give blood and that's a real needle.

rick_chasey

rick_chasey said:

For context, if my rough calculations aren't way off, if we go at the current run rate we'll be at 2.5m new cases **a day** by Christmas.

So say that 0.1% of those end up in hospital, at that point it's 2,500 new people a day turning up to hospital.

According to this: https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/publications/nhs-hospital-bed-numbers

There are only 140,000 beds in the entire system.

briantrumpet

Just to cheer up parents of school-age children...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-59673271

First.Aspect

rick_chasey said:

rick_chasey said:

For context, if my rough calculations aren't way off, if we go at the current run rate we'll be at 2.5m new cases **a day** by Christmas.

So say that 0.1% of those end up in hospital, at that point it's 2,500 new people a day turning up to hospital.

Is that not the lower end of the current projections, with the upper being 8k a day?

Ncovidius

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1536690/plan-c-rules-covid-uk-Boris-Johnson-evg

Oops. I feel so sorry for anyone who was planning a ‘normal’ Christmas. This is nailed on for either the 23rd, or 27th of December, with the medics screaming for it to be the 23rd. Boris still wants it on the 4th of January 2022. I bet the medics win.

rick_chasey

First.Aspect said:

rick_chasey said:

rick_chasey said:

For context, if my rough calculations aren't way off, if we go at the current run rate we'll be at 2.5m new cases **a day** by Christmas.

So say that 0.1% of those end up in hospital, at that point it's 2,500 new people a day turning up to hospital.

Is that not the lower end of the current projections, with the upper being 8k a day?

Yeah I know I have a rep for being alarmist so I thought I'd use conservative figures. It will almost certainly be more than 0.1% in hospital.

kingstonian

mrb123 said:

blazing_saddles said:

pangolin said:

Feel absolutely rough. Wonder why the flu vax never has this effect.

I wondered the same thing. I felt terrible for several days, after my booster too.
I was told that a lot more folks have been reporting side effects after number 3 jab, than after 1 and 2.

My reaction has been more similar to my first jab than my second. Wondering if it's due to the booster being a different type of vaccine.

Exactly the same for me - dose 1 hit me for 2 day, dose 2 gave me no issues, the booster also made me feel pretty rough for a day. AZ for the first 2, Pfizer for the booster.

pblakeney

rick_chasey said:

For context, if my rough calculations aren't way off, if we go at the current run rate we'll be at 2.5m new cases **a day** by Christmas.

There was a quick calculation done on the Newscast podcast. Can't remember specific numbers but it was along the lines of doubling every 3 days = 150,000 by Christmas Eve. Doubling every 2 days = 650,000. That is a very wide margin of error but we are tending towards every 2 days.
Those figures suggest tighter restrictions soon but we all know BJ likes a party.

surrey_commuter

rick_chasey said:

First.Aspect said:

rick_chasey said:

rick_chasey said:

For context, if my rough calculations aren't way off, if we go at the current run rate we'll be at 2.5m new cases **a day** by Christmas.

So say that 0.1% of those end up in hospital, at that point it's 2,500 new people a day turning up to hospital.

Is that not the lower end of the current projections, with the upper being 8k a day?

Yeah I know I have a rep for being alarmist so I thought I'd use conservative figures. It will almost certainly be more than 0.1% in hospital.

has anybody seen recent graphs for Covid hospitalisation numbers?

briantrumpet

surrey_commuter said:

rick_chasey said:

First.Aspect said:

rick_chasey said:

rick_chasey said:

For context, if my rough calculations aren't way off, if we go at the current run rate we'll be at 2.5m new cases **a day** by Christmas.

So say that 0.1% of those end up in hospital, at that point it's 2,500 new people a day turning up to hospital.

Is that not the lower end of the current projections, with the upper being 8k a day?

Yeah I know I have a rep for being alarmist so I thought I'd use conservative figures. It will almost certainly be more than 0.1% in hospital.

has anybody seen recent graphs for Covid hospitalisation numbers?

Still just trundling along, but there's always a lag...

surrey_commuter

surrey_commuter said:

rick_chasey said:

First.Aspect said:

rick_chasey said:

rick_chasey said:

For context, if my rough calculations aren't way off, if we go at the current run rate we'll be at 2.5m new cases **a day** by Christmas.

So say that 0.1% of those end up in hospital, at that point it's 2,500 new people a day turning up to hospital.

Is that not the lower end of the current projections, with the upper being 8k a day?

Yeah I know I have a rep for being alarmist so I thought I'd use conservative figures. It will almost certainly be more than 0.1% in hospital.

has anybody seen recent graphs for Covid hospitalisation numbers?

this is 6 days old but has barely budged
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

rjsterry

shirley_basso said:

My sister has had all 3 pfizer and said the third made her feel like sh!t.

I am hearing rumours of a lockdown first week in Jan, with furlough to hospitality only. (source: chairman of the plc I work for, we have interests in a few hospitality businesses)

So obvious that Johnson knows they really need to bring in more restrictions and support for the hospitality, etc. but can't because his power to enact legislation resides in a bunch of pseudo-libertarian fantasists.