The big Coronavirus thread

rjsterry

TheBigBean said:

surrey_commuter said:

A clever man good at explaining things to thickos told me this...

...a lethal variant infects less people because the victim is laid up

... a mild variant infects far more people as victims go about their business.

I see this latest variant as a huge step towards normality

We just need to peel the anti-vaxxers off the herd

Not sure covid works like that though as it has always spread before symptoms appear or when they are mild.

Exactly. Disappointed at such a simplistic take.

DeVlaeminck

rjsterry said:

TheBigBean said:

surrey_commuter said:

A clever man good at explaining things to thickos told me this...

...a lethal variant infects less people because the victim is laid up

... a mild variant infects far more people as victims go about their business.

I see this latest variant as a huge step towards normality

We just need to peel the anti-vaxxers off the herd

Not sure covid works like that though as it has always spread before symptoms appear or when they are mild.

Exactly. Disappointed at such a simplistic take.

We all know that the window between becoming infectious and displaying symptoms sufficient to stop people mixing with others is why Covid is so difficult to contain.

The question is (all other things being equal - which I accept they may not be) whether that window is shorter with a more virulent variant.

It's not unreasonable to think that might be the case. That a mild variant leads to people limiting their social mixing less and infecting more people than they would with a variant that causes more severe symptoms. That's all it needs for there to be a tendency over time for less virulent variants to establish themselves over the more virulent ones.

N0bodyOfTheGoat

kingstonian said:

So what is the eventual way out of Covid? Feels a long way off to me.

A potential utopian solution, if humans cannot catch Covid from animals who have tested positive for Covid, including cats/dogs/minks/hippos...

Everyone in the world gets vaccinated and then gets enough supplies to last them three to four weeks, the world population then isolates regardless of symptoms for 3-4 weeks with all household members socialising daily.

... Not going to happen. I doubt I had my one and only booster yesterday. We are at the mercy of the mutation lottery, eventually we might get an extremely mild disease mutation that outcompetes all other mutations globally.

I wouldn't be surprised if it was still around in 2030... What a positive thought!

pblakeney

N0bodyOfTheGoat said:

... Not going to happen. I doubt I had my one and only booster yesterday. We are at the mercy of the mutation lottery, eventually we might get an extremely mild disease mutation that outcompetes all other mutations globally.

I wouldn't be surprised if it was still around in 2030... What a positive thought!

I'm thinking the same, but with much less impact. My thoughts...

This winter will be better than last winter due to vaccines etc.
Summer 2022 will be closer to normal as a result.
Next winter will be better than this winter due to vaccines etc.
Summer 2023 will be near normal....

The virus will remain and vaccines will become the norm but the impact will reduce. 🤞

Pross

Are they using poor language on BBC or are people in Scotland being "asked" not to meet more than 3 households? It feels completely unnewsworthy if that is the case, unless people are being "told" to do that with penalties for breaking it surely it is no different to just leaving people to make their own decisions.

kingstongraham

Pross said:

Are they using poor language on BBC or are people in Scotland being "asked" not to meet more than 3 households? It feels completely unnewsworthy if that is the case, unless people are being "told" to do that with penalties for breaking it surely it is no different to just leaving people to make their own decisions.

It's just as newsworthy as the UK government advising that people should continue to meet as many people as possible outside of work but test beforehand.

Have been told before on here that the legal bit doesn't make any difference anyway because the risk of enforcement is so low.

surrey_commuter

I only know one anti- vaxxer and she is getting concerned about the future impact on her life so is looking into getting a vaccination in somebody else’s arm.

Yes it seems you can pay people to have a jab for you.

pangolin

surrey_commuter said:

I only know one anti- vaxxer and she is getting concerned about the future impact on her life so is looking into getting a vaccination in somebody else’s arm.

Yes it seems you can pay people to have a jab for you.

It's interesting people are happy sharing that plan with others

rick_chasey

surrey_commuter said:

I only know one anti- vaxxer and she is getting concerned about the future impact on her life so is looking into getting a vaccination in somebody else’s arm.

Yes it seems you can pay people to have a jab for you.

Remarkable number of spouses of otherwise sensible people at work who are anti-vaxxers.

Though when one was cornered by a colleague she insisted that she wasn't so much an anti-vaxxer as she didn't feel she needed it as she thinks her immune system can handle it better without external intervention.

At which point everyone else in the group apparently laughed at her, called her an anti-vaxxer and she sulked off home.

DeVlaeminck

surrey_commuter said:

I only know one anti- vaxxer and she is getting concerned about the future impact on her life so is looking into getting a vaccination in somebody else’s arm.

Yes it seems you can pay people to have a jab for you.

What's the going rate?

pangolin

rick_chasey said:

surrey_commuter said:

I only know one anti- vaxxer and she is getting concerned about the future impact on her life so is looking into getting a vaccination in somebody else’s arm.

Yes it seems you can pay people to have a jab for you.

Remarkable number of spouses of otherwise sensible people at work who are anti-vaxxers.

Though when one was cornered by a colleague she insisted that she wasn't so much an anti-vaxxer as she didn't feel she needed it as she thinks her immune system can handle it better without external intervention.

At which point everyone else in the group apparently laughed at her, called her an anti-vaxxer and she sulked off home.

Similar conversation with an otherwise smart developer at work. "Not antivax" but didn't want AZ as was scared of side effects. His partner didn't want it either but her reason was that only the vulnerable should get it.

They kept going to big events over summer and all caught covid, not too seriously but wiped them out for a couple of weeks.

These days if it comes up he goes on about it being a lab made virus and what a coincidence the test kits come from China.

Ben6899

Pross said:

briantrumpet said:

Hmm, now trying to work out how I can make France travel work for Christmas.

Looks like I can take a (paid for) lateral flow test to get into France, a (paid for) LFT to fly back (I can take the test out with me, and register the test via an app for approval), but the sticking point might be the Day 2 PCR test, as I'm due to arrive back on NYE in the evening, and though I can do the test as soon as I get back (don't have to wait till the third day now), I'm not sure how long it would take to get it processed.

Any thoughts/ruses?

From memory my Randox day 2 test went in the drop box around midday and I got the result the following day.

This. And if you do your bit, Brian, then I can’t see a problem with your plans.

Best of luck!

briantrumpet

Ben6899 said:

Pross said:

briantrumpet said:

Hmm, now trying to work out how I can make France travel work for Christmas.

Looks like I can take a (paid for) lateral flow test to get into France, a (paid for) LFT to fly back (I can take the test out with me, and register the test via an app for approval), but the sticking point might be the Day 2 PCR test, as I'm due to arrive back on NYE in the evening, and though I can do the test as soon as I get back (don't have to wait till the third day now), I'm not sure how long it would take to get it processed.

Any thoughts/ruses?

From memory my Randox day 2 test went in the drop box around midday and I got the result the following day.

This. And if you do your bit, Brian, then I can’t see a problem with your plans.

Best of luck!

I've twigged that I'd be driving past the lab in Taunton where Zavamed send their samples, so I've asked them if they'll be processing samples over the weekend, if I take the test with me, and drop it in their dropbox at the lab on my way back from Bristol airport. Fingers crossed.

First.Aspect

rick_chasey said:

surrey_commuter said:

I only know one anti- vaxxer and she is getting concerned about the future impact on her life so is looking into getting a vaccination in somebody else’s arm.

Yes it seems you can pay people to have a jab for you.

Remarkable number of spouses of otherwise sensible people at work who are anti-vaxxers.

Going to stick my neck out here and suggest that there is a lot of "asking for a friend" going on here, and that it is a remarkable number of your colleagues who are anti-vax.

rick_chasey

First.Aspect said:

rick_chasey said:

surrey_commuter said:

I only know one anti- vaxxer and she is getting concerned about the future impact on her life so is looking into getting a vaccination in somebody else’s arm.

Yes it seems you can pay people to have a jab for you.

Remarkable number of spouses of otherwise sensible people at work who are anti-vaxxers.

Going to stick my neck out here and suggest that there is a lot of "asking for a friend" going on here, and that it is a remarkable number of your colleagues who are anti-vax.

Possibly, but then they are going on work trips to places where you need to show your vaccination status, so I'd be surprised.

rick_chasey

I guess Labour can hope that all the Tories who don't believe in public health interventions catch rona in quick succession and then they can table a vote of no confidence (though are the realistic alternatives actually any better)?

First.Aspect

rick_chasey said:

First.Aspect said:

rick_chasey said:

surrey_commuter said:

I only know one anti- vaxxer and she is getting concerned about the future impact on her life so is looking into getting a vaccination in somebody else’s arm.

Yes it seems you can pay people to have a jab for you.

Remarkable number of spouses of otherwise sensible people at work who are anti-vaxxers.

Going to stick my neck out here and suggest that there is a lot of "asking for a friend" going on here, and that it is a remarkable number of your colleagues who are anti-vax.

Possibly, but then they are going on work trips to places where you need to show your vaccination status, so I'd be surprised.

Just sounds all a bit "Mad Men" at your place, to be honest.

surrey_commuter

rick_chasey said:

First.Aspect said:

rick_chasey said:

surrey_commuter said:

I only know one anti- vaxxer and she is getting concerned about the future impact on her life so is looking into getting a vaccination in somebody else’s arm.

Yes it seems you can pay people to have a jab for you.

Remarkable number of spouses of otherwise sensible people at work who are anti-vaxxers.

Going to stick my neck out here and suggest that there is a lot of "asking for a friend" going on here, and that it is a remarkable number of your colleagues who are anti-vax.

Possibly, but then they are going on work trips to places where you need to show your vaccination status, so I'd be surprised.

Spouse tends to be increasingly frustrated and presumably would rather his missus had not made herself a public source of ridicule

DeVlaeminck

Bit of anecdote - my daughter's uni football team Xmas meal (which she didn't attend) has resulted in 15 positives across the 3 teams. She's actually come home early because so many people on campus are testing positive - including one of her flatmates so fingers are crossed she left in time.

If that is typical of universities then students returning home and visiting grandparents at xmas should provide ideal conditions for the variant to do its worst.

shirley_basso

I heard a stat that around 70% of young people in SA have Omicron. Is that correct?

First.Aspect

shirley_basso said:

I heard a stat that around 70% of young people in SA have Omicron. Is that correct?

No. That's the seriopositove rate. So across all of the waves in Guateng(spelling?) 70% have had Covid at least once. At least that's my understanding based on the article explaining why Omicron is not necessarily any less severe.

Ncovidius

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/15/wuhan-lab-leak-now-likely-origin-covid-mps-told/

Oh really.

That’s a surprise.

pblakeney

Ncovidius said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/15/wuhan-lab-leak-now-likely-origin-covid-mps-told/

Oh really.

That’s a surprise.

“A proposal was leaked showing that EcoHealth and the Wuhan Institute of Virology were developing a pipeline for inserting novel furin cleavage sites."

Just knew it would be these bloody furiners.
And cleavage. Fnar, fnar.

Ncovidius

First.Aspect said:

shirley_basso said:

I heard a stat that around 70% of young people in SA have Omicron. Is that correct?

No. That's the seriopositove rate. So across all of the waves in Guateng(spelling?) 70% have had Covid at least once. At least that's my understanding based on the article explaining why Omicron is not necessarily any less severe.

Omicron doesn’t have to be more virulent. The fact that the infection rate, and numbers are so horrific, means that it might as well be more virulent, and only as infectious as Delta. The fact it’s going to be a smaller percentage of cases that end up hospitalised, counts for little if the numbers of infections are an order of magnitude higher. It will end up with a similar result, regarding pressure on the N.H.S. There’s another (potentially) massive problem too. This Coronavirus has the ‘proof reading’ ability, which means it really only mutates dangerously when there are big numbers of infections. So I reckon we’ll see more, potentially even worse mutations, appearing soon purely because of the huge numbers of infections. This is just getting worse and worse.

kingstonian

briantrumpet said:

Hmm, now trying to work out how I can make France travel work for Christmas.

Looks like I can take a (paid for) lateral flow test to get into France, a (paid for) LFT to fly back (I can take the test out with me, and register the test via an app for approval), but the sticking point might be the Day 2 PCR test, as I'm due to arrive back on NYE in the evening, and though I can do the test as soon as I get back (don't have to wait till the third day now), I'm not sure how long it would take to get it processed.

Any thoughts/ruses?

My brother is kind of in the same situation, though he goes out this Friday and comes back on either Mon or Tues next week (can’t remember which) and needs to be back in work ASAP. I expect the labs are working 24 hrs a day, 365 days a year but don’t know for sure. I saw in another message you mentioned maybe dropping the sample off at the lab - if they are going to be able to accept it i.e. it won’t just sit on a security guard’s desk for a couple of days then that looks like a great option.

Good luck, I hope it works out ok for you. Please report back on how it goes.

DeVlaeminck

pblakeney said:

Ncovidius said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/15/wuhan-lab-leak-now-likely-origin-covid-mps-told/

Oh really.

That’s a surprise.

“A proposal was leaked showing that EcoHealth and the Wuhan Institute of Virology were developing a pipeline for inserting novel furin cleavage sites."

Just knew it would be these bloody furiners.
And cleavage. Fnar, fnar.

Seem to remember some on here were called conspiracy theorists for suggesting a lab leak was a possible explanation but hey ho.

pangolin

Another press conference scheduled at 5pm

kingstongraham

DeVlaeminck said:

pblakeney said:

Ncovidius said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/15/wuhan-lab-leak-now-likely-origin-covid-mps-told/

Oh really.

That’s a surprise.

“A proposal was leaked showing that EcoHealth and the Wuhan Institute of Virology were developing a pipeline for inserting novel furin cleavage sites."

Just knew it would be these bloody furiners.
And cleavage. Fnar, fnar.

Seem to remember some on here were called conspiracy theorists for suggesting a lab leak was a possible explanation but hey ho.

There's nothing new in that report.

Review of her book(with Matt Ridley, who is never wrong) here: https://www.theguardian.com/books/2021/nov/15/viral-by-alina-chan-and-matt-ridley-review-was-covid-19-really-made-in-china

N0bodyOfTheGoat

pangolin said:

Another press conference scheduled at 5pm

Early close of at least some schools, to give "isolation" time before Xmas dinner with extended family?

pblakeney

DeVlaeminck said:

pblakeney said:

Ncovidius said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/15/wuhan-lab-leak-now-likely-origin-covid-mps-told/

Oh really.

That’s a surprise.

“A proposal was leaked showing that EcoHealth and the Wuhan Institute of Virology were developing a pipeline for inserting novel furin cleavage sites."

Just knew it would be these bloody furiners.
And cleavage. Fnar, fnar.

Seem to remember some on here were called conspiracy theorists for suggesting a lab leak was a possible explanation but hey ho.

Were they?
I thought it was determined to be the least unlikely theory back in 2020.
That's not to say it was likely, just the least unlikely.