The big Coronavirus thread

surrey_commuter

rick_chasey said:

First.Aspect said:

rick_chasey said:

Moderna has the best efficacy vs omicron.

It is marginal. More about the data available at the time than anything else.

Third jab reactions are likely proportionate to the strength and speed of the immune response.

Anecdotally, moderna has generated more side effects than any of the other jabs > a brother in law was in bed for 3 days after it (though he is also a massive pansy).

I know that you will not have meant to intentionally use a gay slur so see me as helpfully advising you not to use the term "pansy" in polite company

kingstonian

briantrumpet said:

pblakeney said:

briantrumpet said:

Will now ponder how long this present travel shït will last... do I change my flights to February or Easter? Hmm...

Likewise, my advice is worth diddly squat but February is seeming too optimistic.
I am also hearing rumours of a lockdown on the 3rd/immediately after festivities.

That's what I'm tending towards, especially if the French omicron wave is a couple of weeks behind the UK's.

I’m really sorry that these new restrictions are hitting you. My brother just escapes it - he flies to Geneva tomorrow morning. It is highly likely to kill my weekend ski trip to La Plagne at the start of Feb - need to check details of my bookings and see when I need to make a final decision as to whether I cancel or not.

It does feel like another bit of Macron playing to the electorate, as the new variant is also in both France and surrounding countries so the restrictions really won’t make much of a difference.

First.Aspect

surrey_commuter said:

rick_chasey said:

First.Aspect said:

rick_chasey said:

Moderna has the best efficacy vs omicron.

It is marginal. More about the data available at the time than anything else.

Third jab reactions are likely proportionate to the strength and speed of the immune response.

Anecdotally, moderna has generated more side effects than any of the other jabs > a brother in law was in bed for 3 days after it (though he is also a massive pansy).

I know that you will not have meant to intentionally use a gay slur so see me as helpfully advising you not to use the term "pansy" in polite company

I knew that a) most people saw this b) most people thought, alright, but meh and c) someone would be outraged d) someone would virtue signal.

kingstongraham

surrey_commuter said:

rick_chasey said:

First.Aspect said:

rick_chasey said:

rick_chasey said:

For context, if my rough calculations aren't way off, if we go at the current run rate we'll be at 2.5m new cases **a day** by Christmas.

So say that 0.1% of those end up in hospital, at that point it's 2,500 new people a day turning up to hospital.

Is that not the lower end of the current projections, with the upper being 8k a day?

Yeah I know I have a rep for being alarmist so I thought I'd use conservative figures. It will almost certainly be more than 0.1% in hospital.

has anybody seen recent graphs for Covid hospitalisation numbers?

Cases last 6 months:


Patients admitted to hospital last 6 months:


So it's trundling along much like cases have been, at a lower proportion than last winter. Each peak looks about 10 days later than the peak in cases.

I'd assume that the severity threshold for being admitted to hospital is about to rise.

surrey_commuter

First.Aspect said:

surrey_commuter said:

rick_chasey said:

First.Aspect said:

rick_chasey said:

Moderna has the best efficacy vs omicron.

It is marginal. More about the data available at the time than anything else.

Third jab reactions are likely proportionate to the strength and speed of the immune response.

Anecdotally, moderna has generated more side effects than any of the other jabs > a brother in law was in bed for 3 days after it (though he is also a massive pansy).

I know that you will not have meant to intentionally use a gay slur so see me as helpfully advising you not to use the term "pansy" in polite company

I knew that a) most people saw this b) most people thought, alright, but meh and c) someone would be outraged d) someone would virtue signal.

in case you are accusing me of virtue signalling, I will reiterate that I would be surprised if Rick knew it was offesive so I was looking to save him from using it in a setting that would be detrimental to him

rick_chasey

pblakeney said:

rick_chasey said:

For context, if my rough calculations aren't way off, if we go at the current run rate we'll be at 2.5m new cases **a day** by Christmas.

There was a quick calculation done on the Newscast podcast. Can't remember specific numbers but it was along the lines of doubling every 3 days = 150,000 by Christmas Eve. Doubling every 2 days = 650,000. That is a very wide margin of error but we are tending towards every 2 days.
Those figures suggest tighter restrictions soon but we all know BJ likes a party.

If it's 78,610 and it doubles every two days. by 17th it's 157,000, 314,000 by the 19th, 630,000 by 21st, 1.25m by 23rd and 2.5m by 25th

First.Aspect

rick_chasey said:

pblakeney said:

rick_chasey said:

For context, if my rough calculations aren't way off, if we go at the current run rate we'll be at 2.5m new cases **a day** by Christmas.

There was a quick calculation done on the Newscast podcast. Can't remember specific numbers but it was along the lines of doubling every 3 days = 150,000 by Christmas Eve. Doubling every 2 days = 650,000. That is a very wide margin of error but we are tending towards every 2 days.
Those figures suggest tighter restrictions soon but we all know BJ likes a party.

If it's 78,610 and it doubles every two days. by 17th it's 157,000, 314,000 by the 19th, 630,000 by 21st, 1.25m by 23rd and 2.5m by 25th

Not all of the 78k are Omicron.

rick_chasey

First.Aspect said:

rick_chasey said:

pblakeney said:

rick_chasey said:

For context, if my rough calculations aren't way off, if we go at the current run rate we'll be at 2.5m new cases **a day** by Christmas.

There was a quick calculation done on the Newscast podcast. Can't remember specific numbers but it was along the lines of doubling every 3 days = 150,000 by Christmas Eve. Doubling every 2 days = 650,000. That is a very wide margin of error but we are tending towards every 2 days.
Those figures suggest tighter restrictions soon but we all know BJ likes a party.

If it's 78,610 and it doubles every two days. by 17th it's 157,000, 314,000 by the 19th, 630,000 by 21st, 1.25m by 23rd and 2.5m by 25th

Not all of the 78k are Omicron.

Gotcha. That's fair.

kingstongraham

rick_chasey said:

pblakeney said:

rick_chasey said:

For context, if my rough calculations aren't way off, if we go at the current run rate we'll be at 2.5m new cases **a day** by Christmas.

There was a quick calculation done on the Newscast podcast. Can't remember specific numbers but it was along the lines of doubling every 3 days = 150,000 by Christmas Eve. Doubling every 2 days = 650,000. That is a very wide margin of error but we are tending towards every 2 days.
Those figures suggest tighter restrictions soon but we all know BJ likes a party.

If it's 78,610 and it doubles every two days. by 17th it's 157,000, 314,000 by the 19th, 630,000 by 21st, 1.25m by 23rd and 2.5m by 25th

That would mean 8.3m new people have tested positive by Christmas day. And if it continues at the same rate, that's 68m people by New Year's Eve.

rick_chasey

Yeah that's what I mean. I can't see how we won't end up in lockdown. It will obviously tail off when we reach the critical mass of "you're mainly meeting others who already have it", but we'll be into "overloading the health system" in a matter of a week.

kingstongraham

rick_chasey said:

Yeah that's what I mean. I can't see how we won't end up in lockdown. It will obviously tail off when we reach the critical mass of "you're mainly meeting others who already have it", but we'll be into "overloading the health system" in a matter of a week.

You'll hit various limits before that, including testing. And remember the number that register a positive test is a fraction of everyone who has it - my head won't accept that there will be 20 million new people infected by Christmas.

Also, the Omicron isn't the whole of the positive case number, so we're probably a day behind the starting number. But the next few days worth are already infected.

But yes, it seems very likely that early Jan will be very bad for the NHS. And anyone old and not vaccinated.

DeVlaeminck

surrey_commuter said:

First.Aspect said:

surrey_commuter said:

rick_chasey said:

First.Aspect said:

rick_chasey said:

Moderna has the best efficacy vs omicron.

It is marginal. More about the data available at the time than anything else.

Third jab reactions are likely proportionate to the strength and speed of the immune response.

Anecdotally, moderna has generated more side effects than any of the other jabs > a brother in law was in bed for 3 days after it (though he is also a massive pansy).

I know that you will not have meant to intentionally use a gay slur so see me as helpfully advising you not to use the term "pansy" in polite company

I knew that a) most people saw this b) most people thought, alright, but meh and c) someone would be outraged d) someone would virtue signal.

in case you are accusing me of virtue signalling, I will reiterate that I would be surprised if Rick knew it was offesive so I was looking to save him from using it in a setting that would be detrimental to him

I must admit I wouldn't have associated pansy with gay like that - more something akin to calling someone soft or nesh.

Fair enough raising the issue though would not want to cause offence unknowingly.

rick_chasey

kingstongraham said:

rick_chasey said:

Yeah that's what I mean. I can't see how we won't end up in lockdown. It will obviously tail off when we reach the critical mass of "you're mainly meeting others who already have it", but we'll be into "overloading the health system" in a matter of a week.

You'll hit various limits before that, including testing. And remember the number that register a positive test is a fraction of everyone who has it - my head won't accept that there will be 20 million new people infected by Christmas.

Also, the Omicron isn't the whole of the positive case number, so we're probably a day behind the starting number. But the next few days worth are already infected.

But yes, it seems very likely that early Jan will be very bad for the NHS. And anyone old and not vaccinated.

Yes. There are also the issue that omicron is different enough to delta / alpha etc that people can be infected by omicron after having delta.

I would assume they would be at reduced risk of hospitalisation but still high transmission.

pangolin

rick_chasey said:

kingstongraham said:

rick_chasey said:

Yeah that's what I mean. I can't see how we won't end up in lockdown. It will obviously tail off when we reach the critical mass of "you're mainly meeting others who already have it", but we'll be into "overloading the health system" in a matter of a week.

You'll hit various limits before that, including testing. And remember the number that register a positive test is a fraction of everyone who has it - my head won't accept that there will be 20 million new people infected by Christmas.

Also, the Omicron isn't the whole of the positive case number, so we're probably a day behind the starting number. But the next few days worth are already infected.

But yes, it seems very likely that early Jan will be very bad for the NHS. And anyone old and not vaccinated.

Yes. There are also the issue that omicron is different enough to delta / alpha etc that people can be infected by omicron after having delta.

I would assume they would be at reduced risk of hospitalisation but still high transmission.

You also start butting up against the number of people who have been had a booster recently and should have relatively high immunity.

rick_chasey

Yeah let's hope so.

It'll be the shock of the new numbers but I am not feeling good about these numbers at all.

Is quite sad as I am definitely feeling better heading into this Dec having had some normal social interaction over the past couple of months.

pblakeney

rick_chasey said:

First.Aspect said:

rick_chasey said:

pblakeney said:

rick_chasey said:

For context, if my rough calculations aren't way off, if we go at the current run rate we'll be at 2.5m new cases **a day** by Christmas.

There was a quick calculation done on the Newscast podcast. Can't remember specific numbers but it was along the lines of doubling every 3 days = 150,000 by Christmas Eve. Doubling every 2 days = 650,000. That is a very wide margin of error but we are tending towards every 2 days.
Those figures suggest tighter restrictions soon but we all know BJ likes a party.

If it's 78,610 and it doubles every two days. by 17th it's 157,000, 314,000 by the 19th, 630,000 by 21st, 1.25m by 23rd and 2.5m by 25th

Not all of the 78k are Omicron.

Gotcha. That's fair.

Just catching up. The Omicron only point was made in the podcast.
Apologies for the omission in my post.

pblakeney

DeVlaeminck said:

surrey_commuter said:

First.Aspect said:

surrey_commuter said:

rick_chasey said:

First.Aspect said:

rick_chasey said:

Moderna has the best efficacy vs omicron.

It is marginal. More about the data available at the time than anything else.

Third jab reactions are likely proportionate to the strength and speed of the immune response.

Anecdotally, moderna has generated more side effects than any of the other jabs > a brother in law was in bed for 3 days after it (though he is also a massive pansy).

I know that you will not have meant to intentionally use a gay slur so see me as helpfully advising you not to use the term "pansy" in polite company

I knew that a) most people saw this b) most people thought, alright, but meh and c) someone would be outraged d) someone would virtue signal.

in case you are accusing me of virtue signalling, I will reiterate that I would be surprised if Rick knew it was offesive so I was looking to save him from using it in a setting that would be detrimental to him

I must admit I wouldn't have associated pansy with gay like that - more something akin to calling someone soft or nesh.

Fair enough raising the issue though would not want to cause offence unknowingly.

We now know how and when to use it.

kingstongraham

Yesterday:


Today:

DeVlaeminck

pblakeney said:

DeVlaeminck said:

surrey_commuter said:

First.Aspect said:

surrey_commuter said:

rick_chasey said:

First.Aspect said:

rick_chasey said:

Moderna has the best efficacy vs omicron.

It is marginal. More about the data available at the time than anything else.

Third jab reactions are likely proportionate to the strength and speed of the immune response.

Anecdotally, moderna has generated more side effects than any of the other jabs > a brother in law was in bed for 3 days after it (though he is also a massive pansy).

I know that you will not have meant to intentionally use a gay slur so see me as helpfully advising you not to use the term "pansy" in polite company

I knew that a) most people saw this b) most people thought, alright, but meh and c) someone would be outraged d) someone would virtue signal.

in case you are accusing me of virtue signalling, I will reiterate that I would be surprised if Rick knew it was offesive so I was looking to save him from using it in a setting that would be detrimental to him

I must admit I wouldn't have associated pansy with gay like that - more something akin to calling someone soft or nesh.

Fair enough raising the issue though would not want to cause offence unknowingly.

We now know how and when to use it.

Yes. Must admit I don't think it's a word I've used but more because I don't like implying being overtly macho/tough or whatever is something to aspire to.

I'd probably use nesh - susceptible to the cold.

pblakeney

DeVlaeminck said:

pblakeney said:

DeVlaeminck said:

surrey_commuter said:

First.Aspect said:

surrey_commuter said:

rick_chasey said:

First.Aspect said:

rick_chasey said:

Moderna has the best efficacy vs omicron.

It is marginal. More about the data available at the time than anything else.

Third jab reactions are likely proportionate to the strength and speed of the immune response.

Anecdotally, moderna has generated more side effects than any of the other jabs > a brother in law was in bed for 3 days after it (though he is also a massive pansy).

I know that you will not have meant to intentionally use a gay slur so see me as helpfully advising you not to use the term "pansy" in polite company

I knew that a) most people saw this b) most people thought, alright, but meh and c) someone would be outraged d) someone would virtue signal.

in case you are accusing me of virtue signalling, I will reiterate that I would be surprised if Rick knew it was offesive so I was looking to save him from using it in a setting that would be detrimental to him

I must admit I wouldn't have associated pansy with gay like that - more something akin to calling someone soft or nesh.

Fair enough raising the issue though would not want to cause offence unknowingly.

We now know how and when to use it.

Yes. Must admit I don't think it's a word I've used but more because I don't like implying being overtly macho/tough or whatever is something to aspire to.

I'd probably use nesh - susceptible to the cold.

I'd use wuss.
I've checked and it has no known connotations, which is a good thing. 😉

First.Aspect

pblakeney said:

DeVlaeminck said:

pblakeney said:

DeVlaeminck said:

surrey_commuter said:

First.Aspect said:

surrey_commuter said:

rick_chasey said:

First.Aspect said:

rick_chasey said:

Moderna has the best efficacy vs omicron.

It is marginal. More about the data available at the time than anything else.

Third jab reactions are likely proportionate to the strength and speed of the immune response.

Anecdotally, moderna has generated more side effects than any of the other jabs > a brother in law was in bed for 3 days after it (though he is also a massive pansy).

I know that you will not have meant to intentionally use a gay slur so see me as helpfully advising you not to use the term "pansy" in polite company

I knew that a) most people saw this b) most people thought, alright, but meh and c) someone would be outraged d) someone would virtue signal.

in case you are accusing me of virtue signalling, I will reiterate that I would be surprised if Rick knew it was offesive so I was looking to save him from using it in a setting that would be detrimental to him

I must admit I wouldn't have associated pansy with gay like that - more something akin to calling someone soft or nesh.

Fair enough raising the issue though would not want to cause offence unknowingly.

We now know how and when to use it.

Yes. Must admit I don't think it's a word I've used but more because I don't like implying being overtly macho/tough or whatever is something to aspire to.

I'd probably use nesh - susceptible to the cold.

I'd use wuss.
I've checked and it has no known connotations, which is a good thing. 😉

Give it time. Eventually every word will acquire a connotation and a snowflake will brush your cheek to tell you that their world has decided the word is now taboo. You will then be permitted to use another word, quite possibly one that was taboo when you were a child, but has since been cleansed by the church of woke.

blazing_saddles

kingstongraham said:

What's the feeling on what Drakeford will do next? Any chance I won't be able to go from London to Wales for Xmas?

As of yesterday, our numbers have been steady for quite a few weeks. So, we are yet to experience a rise, let alone a massive rise.
However, I wouldn't put any money on Drakeford not introducing some "preemptive" measures; just because he can, not that they are likely to do any good.

kingstongraham

blazing_saddles said:

kingstongraham said:

What's the feeling on what Drakeford will do next? Any chance I won't be able to go from London to Wales for Xmas?

As of yesterday, our numbers have been steady for quite a few weeks. So, we are yet to experience a rise, let alone a massive rise.
However, I wouldn't put any money on Drakeford not introducing some "preemptive" measures; just because he can, not that they are likely to do any good.

If buying a few days is useful, it might do some good, but it's likely to only be a few days.

pblakeney

First.Aspect said:

pblakeney said:

DeVlaeminck said:

pblakeney said:

DeVlaeminck said:

surrey_commuter said:

First.Aspect said:

surrey_commuter said:

rick_chasey said:

First.Aspect said:

rick_chasey said:

Moderna has the best efficacy vs omicron.

It is marginal. More about the data available at the time than anything else.

Third jab reactions are likely proportionate to the strength and speed of the immune response.

Anecdotally, moderna has generated more side effects than any of the other jabs > a brother in law was in bed for 3 days after it (though he is also a massive pansy).

I know that you will not have meant to intentionally use a gay slur so see me as helpfully advising you not to use the term "pansy" in polite company

I knew that a) most people saw this b) most people thought, alright, but meh and c) someone would be outraged d) someone would virtue signal.

in case you are accusing me of virtue signalling, I will reiterate that I would be surprised if Rick knew it was offesive so I was looking to save him from using it in a setting that would be detrimental to him

I must admit I wouldn't have associated pansy with gay like that - more something akin to calling someone soft or nesh.

Fair enough raising the issue though would not want to cause offence unknowingly.

We now know how and when to use it.

Yes. Must admit I don't think it's a word I've used but more because I don't like implying being overtly macho/tough or whatever is something to aspire to.

I'd probably use nesh - susceptible to the cold.

I'd use wuss.
I've checked and it has no known connotations, which is a good thing. 😉

Give it time. Eventually every word will acquire a connotation and a snowflake will brush your cheek to tell you that their world has decided the word is now taboo. You will then be permitted to use another word, quite possibly one that was taboo when you were a child, but has since been cleansed by the church of woke.

Only matters if I happen to give a toss. 😉

TheBigBean

First.Aspect said:

pblakeney said:

DeVlaeminck said:

pblakeney said:

DeVlaeminck said:

surrey_commuter said:

First.Aspect said:

surrey_commuter said:

rick_chasey said:

First.Aspect said:

rick_chasey said:

Moderna has the best efficacy vs omicron.

It is marginal. More about the data available at the time than anything else.

Third jab reactions are likely proportionate to the strength and speed of the immune response.

Anecdotally, moderna has generated more side effects than any of the other jabs > a brother in law was in bed for 3 days after it (though he is also a massive pansy).

I know that you will not have meant to intentionally use a gay slur so see me as helpfully advising you not to use the term "pansy" in polite company

I knew that a) most people saw this b) most people thought, alright, but meh and c) someone would be outraged d) someone would virtue signal.

in case you are accusing me of virtue signalling, I will reiterate that I would be surprised if Rick knew it was offesive so I was looking to save him from using it in a setting that would be detrimental to him

I must admit I wouldn't have associated pansy with gay like that - more something akin to calling someone soft or nesh.

Fair enough raising the issue though would not want to cause offence unknowingly.

We now know how and when to use it.

Yes. Must admit I don't think it's a word I've used but more because I don't like implying being overtly macho/tough or whatever is something to aspire to.

I'd probably use nesh - susceptible to the cold.

I'd use wuss.
I've checked and it has no known connotations, which is a good thing. 😉

Give it time. Eventually every word will acquire a connotation and a snowflake will brush your cheek to tell you that their world has decided the word is now taboo. You will then be permitted to use another word, quite possibly one that was taboo when you were a child, but has since been cleansed by the church of woke.

So because people used to be racist homophobes it's fine to carry on with the same offensive language?

First.Aspect

TheBigBean said:

First.Aspect said:

pblakeney said:

DeVlaeminck said:

pblakeney said:

DeVlaeminck said:

surrey_commuter said:

First.Aspect said:

surrey_commuter said:

rick_chasey said:

First.Aspect said:

rick_chasey said:

Moderna has the best efficacy vs omicron.

It is marginal. More about the data available at the time than anything else.

Third jab reactions are likely proportionate to the strength and speed of the immune response.

Anecdotally, moderna has generated more side effects than any of the other jabs > a brother in law was in bed for 3 days after it (though he is also a massive pansy).

I know that you will not have meant to intentionally use a gay slur so see me as helpfully advising you not to use the term "pansy" in polite company

I knew that a) most people saw this b) most people thought, alright, but meh and c) someone would be outraged d) someone would virtue signal.

in case you are accusing me of virtue signalling, I will reiterate that I would be surprised if Rick knew it was offesive so I was looking to save him from using it in a setting that would be detrimental to him

I must admit I wouldn't have associated pansy with gay like that - more something akin to calling someone soft or nesh.

Fair enough raising the issue though would not want to cause offence unknowingly.

We now know how and when to use it.

Yes. Must admit I don't think it's a word I've used but more because I don't like implying being overtly macho/tough or whatever is something to aspire to.

I'd probably use nesh - susceptible to the cold.

I'd use wuss.
I've checked and it has no known connotations, which is a good thing. 😉

Give it time. Eventually every word will acquire a connotation and a snowflake will brush your cheek to tell you that their world has decided the word is now taboo. You will then be permitted to use another word, quite possibly one that was taboo when you were a child, but has since been cleansed by the church of woke.

So because people used to be racist homophobes it's fine to carry on with the same offensive language?

Oh don't be so dramatic.

briantrumpet

kingstonian said:

briantrumpet said:

pblakeney said:

briantrumpet said:

Will now ponder how long this present travel shït will last... do I change my flights to February or Easter? Hmm...

Likewise, my advice is worth diddly squat but February is seeming too optimistic.
I am also hearing rumours of a lockdown on the 3rd/immediately after festivities.

That's what I'm tending towards, especially if the French omicron wave is a couple of weeks behind the UK's.

I’m really sorry that these new restrictions are hitting you. My brother just escapes it - he flies to Geneva tomorrow morning. It is highly likely to kill my weekend ski trip to La Plagne at the start of Feb - need to check details of my bookings and see when I need to make a final decision as to whether I cancel or not.

It does feel like another bit of Macron playing to the electorate, as the new variant is also in both France and surrounding countries so the restrictions really won’t make much of a difference.

It's a disappointment, and a bit of hassle and possibly small financial hit, but no more than that. I could have taken a chance and flown out Friday night to sneak under the wire, but in a fast-moving situation, there's no point in increasing risk and hassle. The house will still be there at Easter, or whenever I can get there.

rick_chasey

From the guardian liveblog

Back to the committee, on the link between case numbers and hospitalisations, Whitty says medics don’t yet know how many Omicron hospitalisations there will be.

But we can say the new variant is not more dangerous than Delta, he says.

In comparison to the last big wave, the hospitalisation rate prior to the vaccination programme was 22% with Delta, he says.

After two doses of the Covid vaccine, that dropped to just 6%, he says.

There isn’t evidence that Omicron is intrinsically milder, he says, and it is very critical to wait for more data before predicting what will happen.

He says medics are taking the new variant extremely seriously as the NHS will be impacted by a shortage of staff as more people isolate with Covid.

I mean, if it's anything over 1% then surely we're in the sh!t re hospital capacity?

rick_chasey

It seems to be that the SAGE advice is "wait and see" because there are too many unknowns, especially around hospitalisation rates with vaccinated and boosted populations which to my mind sounds like a risky strategy, as if it *is* a bad hospitalisation rate in relation to the rates of infection, the horse has bolted already.

Ncovidius

And today the French have discovered another mutation that they’re concerned about. That was inevitable.