The big Coronavirus thread

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  • Ncovidius
    Ncovidius Posts: 229
    shirley_basso said:

    My sister has had all 3 pfizer and said the third made her feel like sh!t.

    I am hearing rumours of a lockdown first week in Jan, with furlough to hospitality only. (source: chairman of the plc I work for, we have interests in a few hospitality businesses)

    The 4th January is Boris’s preferred date, but the medics want it sooner ( 23rd or 27th December ).
  • Ncovidius
    Ncovidius Posts: 229
    briantrumpet said:

    imposter2.0 said:

    Why don't you talk properly..?

    GAR (got a reaction).


    I still don't understand why people react to bilge.

    “Bilge” which has thus far to proven to be bang on every time you mean?
  • Mad_Malx
    Mad_Malx Posts: 5,183
    DeVlaeminck said:

    pblakeney said:

    DeVlaeminck said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    First.Aspect said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    rick_chasey said:

    First.Aspect said:

    rick_chasey said:

    Moderna has the best efficacy vs omicron.

    It is marginal. More about the data available at the time than anything else.

    Third jab reactions are likely proportionate to the strength and speed of the immune response.
    Anecdotally, moderna has generated more side effects than any of the other jabs > a brother in law was in bed for 3 days after it (though he is also a massive pansy).
    I know that you will not have meant to intentionally use a gay slur so see me as helpfully advising you not to use the term "pansy" in polite company
    I knew that a) most people saw this b) most people thought, alright, but meh and c) someone would be outraged d) someone would virtue signal.

    in case you are accusing me of virtue signalling, I will reiterate that I would be surprised if Rick knew it was offesive so I was looking to save him from using it in a setting that would be detrimental to him
    I must admit I wouldn't have associated pansy with gay like that - more something akin to calling someone soft or nesh.

    Fair enough raising the issue though would not want to cause offence unknowingly.
    We now know how and when to use it.
    Yes. Must admit I don't think it's a word I've used but more because I don't like implying being overtly macho/tough or whatever is something to aspire to.

    I'd probably use nesh - susceptible to the cold.
    I haven't heard nesh since I left the east midlands, 40 years ago.

  • kingstonian
    kingstonian Posts: 2,847
    Mad_Malx said:

    DeVlaeminck said:

    pblakeney said:

    DeVlaeminck said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    First.Aspect said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    rick_chasey said:

    First.Aspect said:

    rick_chasey said:

    Moderna has the best efficacy vs omicron.

    It is marginal. More about the data available at the time than anything else.

    Third jab reactions are likely proportionate to the strength and speed of the immune response.
    Anecdotally, moderna has generated more side effects than any of the other jabs > a brother in law was in bed for 3 days after it (though he is also a massive pansy).
    I know that you will not have meant to intentionally use a gay slur so see me as helpfully advising you not to use the term "pansy" in polite company
    I knew that a) most people saw this b) most people thought, alright, but meh and c) someone would be outraged d) someone would virtue signal.

    in case you are accusing me of virtue signalling, I will reiterate that I would be surprised if Rick knew it was offesive so I was looking to save him from using it in a setting that would be detrimental to him
    I must admit I wouldn't have associated pansy with gay like that - more something akin to calling someone soft or nesh.

    Fair enough raising the issue though would not want to cause offence unknowingly.
    We now know how and when to use it.
    Yes. Must admit I don't think it's a word I've used but more because I don't like implying being overtly macho/tough or whatever is something to aspire to.

    I'd probably use nesh - susceptible to the cold.
    I haven't heard nesh since I left the east midlands, 40 years ago.


    I’d never heard it before
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,167
    rick_chasey said:

    From the guardian liveblog


    Back to the committee, on the link between case numbers and hospitalisations, Whitty says medics don’t yet know how many Omicron hospitalisations there will be.

    But we can say the new variant is not more dangerous than Delta, he says.

    In comparison to the last big wave, the hospitalisation rate prior to the vaccination programme was 22% with Delta, he says.

    After two doses of the Covid vaccine, that dropped to just 6%,     he says.

    There isn’t evidence that Omicron is intrinsically milder, he says, and it is very critical to wait for more data before predicting what will happen.

    He says medics are taking the new variant extremely seriously as the NHS will be impacted by a shortage of staff as more people isolate with Covid.


    I mean, if it's anything over 1% then surely we're in the sh!t re hospital capacity?
    Isn't that a percentage of hospital capacity?

    There have been 11 million recorded infections, surely not 700,000 hospitalisations?
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,167
    kingstonian said:

    Mad_Malx said:

    DeVlaeminck said:

    pblakeney said:

    DeVlaeminck said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    First.Aspect said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    rick_chasey said:

    First.Aspect said:

    rick_chasey said:

    Moderna has the best efficacy vs omicron.

    It is marginal. More about the data available at the time than anything else.

    Third jab reactions are likely proportionate to the strength and speed of the immune response.
    Anecdotally, moderna has generated more side effects than any of the other jabs > a brother in law was in bed for 3 days after it (though he is also a massive pansy).
    I know that you will not have meant to intentionally use a gay slur so see me as helpfully advising you not to use the term "pansy" in polite company
    I knew that a) most people saw this b) most people thought, alright, but meh and c) someone would be outraged d) someone would virtue signal.

    in case you are accusing me of virtue signalling, I will reiterate that I would be surprised if Rick knew it was offesive so I was looking to save him from using it in a setting that would be detrimental to him
    I must admit I wouldn't have associated pansy with gay like that - more something akin to calling someone soft or nesh.

    Fair enough raising the issue though would not want to cause offence unknowingly.
    We now know how and when to use it.
    Yes. Must admit I don't think it's a word I've used but more because I don't like implying being overtly macho/tough or whatever is something to aspire to.

    I'd probably use nesh - susceptible to the cold.
    I haven't heard nesh since I left the east midlands, 40 years ago.


    I’d never heard it before
    Are we allowed to use "fey" these days?

    I bet we aren't.
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,329
    edited December 2021
    First.Aspect said:

    kingstonian said:

    Mad_Malx said:

    DeVlaeminck said:

    pblakeney said:

    DeVlaeminck said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    First.Aspect said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    rick_chasey said:

    First.Aspect said:

    rick_chasey said:

    Moderna has the best efficacy vs omicron.

    It is marginal. More about the data available at the time than anything else.

    Third jab reactions are likely proportionate to the strength and speed of the immune response.
    Anecdotally, moderna has generated more side effects than any of the other jabs > a brother in law was in bed for 3 days after it (though he is also a massive pansy).
    I know that you will not have meant to intentionally use a gay slur so see me as helpfully advising you not to use the term "pansy" in polite company
    I knew that a) most people saw this b) most people thought, alright, but meh and c) someone would be outraged d) someone would virtue signal.

    in case you are accusing me of virtue signalling, I will reiterate that I would be surprised if Rick knew it was offesive so I was looking to save him from using it in a setting that would be detrimental to him
    I must admit I wouldn't have associated pansy with gay like that - more something akin to calling someone soft or nesh.

    Fair enough raising the issue though would not want to cause offence unknowingly.
    We now know how and when to use it.
    Yes. Must admit I don't think it's a word I've used but more because I don't like implying being overtly macho/tough or whatever is something to aspire to.

    I'd probably use nesh - susceptible to the cold.
    I haven't heard nesh since I left the east midlands, 40 years ago.


    I’d never heard it before
    Are we allowed to use "fey" these days?

    I bet we aren't.
    Well, I'm old enough to remember gay meaning happy so who knows?

    Edit - Googled. Nothing untoward against fey. Yet.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,351
    I've asked current pupils who've used 'flid' if they knew where it came from, and, suffice to say, they didn't, and appeared to be aghast that they'd used it innocently. I suppose it's positive that we're far enough away from that era that it's not part of general awareness.
    https://www.facebook.com/unanglaisendiois
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,351
    I hope that 'plonker' is still OK.
    https://www.facebook.com/unanglaisendiois
  • skyblueamateur
    skyblueamateur Posts: 1,498
    rick_chasey said:

    It seems to be that the SAGE advice is "wait and see" because there are too many unknowns, especially around hospitalisation rates with vaccinated and boosted populations which to my mind sounds like a risky strategy, as if it *is* a bad hospitalisation rate in relation to the rates of infection, the horse has bolted already.

    Surely if it's as infectious as it seems then we're damned if we do, damned if we don't.

    I'm certainly resigning myself to the fact that I will catch it at some point. Depressing isn't it.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    edited December 2021
    skyblueamateur said:

    rick_chasey said:

    It seems to be that the SAGE advice is "wait and see" because there are too many unknowns, especially around hospitalisation rates with vaccinated and boosted populations which to my mind sounds like a risky strategy, as if it *is* a bad hospitalisation rate in relation to the rates of infection, the horse has bolted already.

    Surely if it's as infectious as it seems then we're damned if we do, damned if we don't.

    I'm certainly resigning myself to the fact that I will catch it at some point. Depressing isn't it.
    I get that but from a public policy perspective, it's all about "flattening the curve", right?
    If you cross a certain threshold ( of infections x hospitalisation rate) you get avoidable deaths because you have exceeded all possible hospital and healthcare capacity.

    If half the nation is infected with it simultaneously then collectively the UK is in trouble.

    I feel like we've not learned much from the last two years.
    _
  • DeVlaeminck
    DeVlaeminck Posts: 9,104
    rick_chasey said:

    From the guardian liveblog


    Back to the committee, on the link between case numbers and hospitalisations, Whitty says medics don’t yet know how many Omicron hospitalisations there will be.

    But we can say the new variant is not more dangerous than Delta, he says.

    In comparison to the last big wave, the hospitalisation rate prior to the vaccination programme was 22% with Delta, he says.

    After two doses of the Covid vaccine, that dropped to just 6%,     he says.

    There isn’t evidence that Omicron is intrinsically milder, he says, and it is very critical to wait for more data before predicting what will happen.

    He says medics are taking the new variant extremely seriously as the NHS will be impacted by a shortage of staff as more people isolate with Covid.


    I mean, if it's anything over 1% then surely we're in the sh!t re hospital capacity?


    22% ? Am I misinterpreting that - 22% of unvaccinated people who caught the delta variant ended up in hospital?

    That seems incredibly high
    [Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
  • skyblueamateur
    skyblueamateur Posts: 1,498
    rick_chasey said:

    skyblueamateur said:

    rick_chasey said:

    It seems to be that the SAGE advice is "wait and see" because there are too many unknowns, especially around hospitalisation rates with vaccinated and boosted populations which to my mind sounds like a risky strategy, as if it *is* a bad hospitalisation rate in relation to the rates of infection, the horse has bolted already.

    Surely if it's as infectious as it seems then we're damned if we do, damned if we don't.

    I'm certainly resigning myself to the fact that I will catch it at some point. Depressing isn't it.
    I get that but from a public policy perspective, it's all about "flattening the curve", right?
    If you cross a certain threshold ( of infections x hospitalisation rate) you get avoidable deaths because you have exceeded all possible hospital and healthcare capacity.

    If half the nation is infected with it simultaneously then collectively the UK is in trouble.

    I feel like we've not learned much from the last two years.
    I don't disagree but with how infectious Omnicron appears to be surely it would mean an even stricter lockdown then March 20?
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    skyblueamateur said:

    rick_chasey said:

    skyblueamateur said:

    rick_chasey said:

    It seems to be that the SAGE advice is "wait and see" because there are too many unknowns, especially around hospitalisation rates with vaccinated and boosted populations which to my mind sounds like a risky strategy, as if it *is* a bad hospitalisation rate in relation to the rates of infection, the horse has bolted already.

    Surely if it's as infectious as it seems then we're damned if we do, damned if we don't.

    I'm certainly resigning myself to the fact that I will catch it at some point. Depressing isn't it.
    I get that but from a public policy perspective, it's all about "flattening the curve", right?
    If you cross a certain threshold ( of infections x hospitalisation rate) you get avoidable deaths because you have exceeded all possible hospital and healthcare capacity.

    If half the nation is infected with it simultaneously then collectively the UK is in trouble.

    I feel like we've not learned much from the last two years.
    I don't disagree but with how infectious Omnicron appears to be surely it would mean an even stricter lockdown then March 20?
    Well yes that's why I'm sh!tting the bed, rather.
    _
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,329
    rick_chasey said:

    skyblueamateur said:

    rick_chasey said:

    skyblueamateur said:

    rick_chasey said:

    It seems to be that the SAGE advice is "wait and see" because there are too many unknowns, especially around hospitalisation rates with vaccinated and boosted populations which to my mind sounds like a risky strategy, as if it *is* a bad hospitalisation rate in relation to the rates of infection, the horse has bolted already.

    Surely if it's as infectious as it seems then we're damned if we do, damned if we don't.

    I'm certainly resigning myself to the fact that I will catch it at some point. Depressing isn't it.
    I get that but from a public policy perspective, it's all about "flattening the curve", right?
    If you cross a certain threshold ( of infections x hospitalisation rate) you get avoidable deaths because you have exceeded all possible hospital and healthcare capacity.

    If half the nation is infected with it simultaneously then collectively the UK is in trouble.

    I feel like we've not learned much from the last two years.
    I don't disagree but with how infectious Omnicron appears to be surely it would mean an even stricter lockdown then March 20?
    Well yes that's why I'm sh!tting the bed, rather.
    Don't feel too bad, even Queenie is bricking it.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Look hopefully I'm wrong. SAGE know a lot more about this than I do, so I guess they must have some reasons to be more optimistic than me.
    _
  • skyblueamateur
    skyblueamateur Posts: 1,498
    rick_chasey said:

    skyblueamateur said:

    rick_chasey said:

    skyblueamateur said:

    rick_chasey said:

    It seems to be that the SAGE advice is "wait and see" because there are too many unknowns, especially around hospitalisation rates with vaccinated and boosted populations which to my mind sounds like a risky strategy, as if it *is* a bad hospitalisation rate in relation to the rates of infection, the horse has bolted already.

    Surely if it's as infectious as it seems then we're damned if we do, damned if we don't.

    I'm certainly resigning myself to the fact that I will catch it at some point. Depressing isn't it.
    I get that but from a public policy perspective, it's all about "flattening the curve", right?
    If you cross a certain threshold ( of infections x hospitalisation rate) you get avoidable deaths because you have exceeded all possible hospital and healthcare capacity.

    If half the nation is infected with it simultaneously then collectively the UK is in trouble.

    I feel like we've not learned much from the last two years.
    I don't disagree but with how infectious Omnicron appears to be surely it would mean an even stricter lockdown then March 20?
    Well yes that's why I'm sh!tting the bed, rather.
    It's why I'm resigned to catching it at some point. Had my 2 jabs and booster, being careful but can't work from home and got two primary school aged boys.
  • focuszing723
    focuszing723 Posts: 8,151
    pblakeney said:

    rick_chasey said:

    skyblueamateur said:

    rick_chasey said:

    skyblueamateur said:

    rick_chasey said:

    It seems to be that the SAGE advice is "wait and see" because there are too many unknowns, especially around hospitalisation rates with vaccinated and boosted populations which to my mind sounds like a risky strategy, as if it *is* a bad hospitalisation rate in relation to the rates of infection, the horse has bolted already.

    Surely if it's as infectious as it seems then we're damned if we do, damned if we don't.

    I'm certainly resigning myself to the fact that I will catch it at some point. Depressing isn't it.
    I get that but from a public policy perspective, it's all about "flattening the curve", right?
    If you cross a certain threshold ( of infections x hospitalisation rate) you get avoidable deaths because you have exceeded all possible hospital and healthcare capacity.

    If half the nation is infected with it simultaneously then collectively the UK is in trouble.

    I feel like we've not learned much from the last two years.
    I don't disagree but with how infectious Omnicron appears to be surely it would mean an even stricter lockdown then March 20?
    Well yes that's why I'm sh!tting the bed, rather.
    Don't feel too bad, even Queenie is bricking it.
    Yet the yanks seem a bit blase about it.
  • skyblueamateur
    skyblueamateur Posts: 1,498
    rick_chasey said:

    Look hopefully I'm wrong. SAGE know a lot more about this than I do, so I guess they must have some reasons to be more optimistic than me.

    I work on what I can actually influence. As said I've had my booster, wear a KN95 mask in public places and will be limiting my social interactions while also having some kind of life.

    I'm reasonably optimistic this year. Spoke to the wife and if we catch it and are isolating for Xmas so be it we'll still spoil the kids and make the make of it.
  • focuszing723
    focuszing723 Posts: 8,151
    edited December 2021
    ...
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    skyblueamateur said:

    rick_chasey said:

    Look hopefully I'm wrong. SAGE know a lot more about this than I do, so I guess they must have some reasons to be more optimistic than me.

    I work on what I can actually influence. As said I've had my booster, wear a KN95 mask in public places and will be limiting my social interactions while also having some kind of life.

    I'm reasonably optimistic this year. Spoke to the wife and if we catch it and are isolating for Xmas so be it we'll still spoil the kids and make the make of it.
    Ja, course. I find bracing early makes it more bearable when it happens. I guess I feel a bit discombobulated as everyone around me is fairly blasé about it.
    _
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,152
    rick_chasey said:

    Look hopefully I'm wrong. SAGE know a lot more about this than I do, so I guess they must have some reasons to be more optimistic than me.

    Have they released their latest minutes? Last I saw were 6 days old now which is an age.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    rick_chasey said:

    Look hopefully I'm wrong. SAGE know a lot more about this than I do, so I guess they must have some reasons to be more optimistic than me.

    surely you need to be looking atthe hospitalisations?
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    surrey_commuter said:

    rick_chasey said:

    Look hopefully I'm wrong. SAGE know a lot more about this than I do, so I guess they must have some reasons to be more optimistic than me.

    surely you need to be looking atthe hospitalisations?
    Too much of a lag > the spike is so big that by the time that filters through and it's bad it's too late.
    _
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,152
    London hospital admissions have gone up 100% in the last two weeks, and that will mostly relate to pre-Omicron.

    Case numbers went up by 100% between Friday and Monday.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    88,376 new cases today.
    _
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    The problem with this exponential infectivity is you really need the hospitalisation rates to drop at an equally exponential rate else you still end up with the same logic as in 2020, and the problem with new variants is that is not the case.
    _
  • pangolin
    pangolin Posts: 6,648
    rick_chasey said:

    88,376 new cases today.

    That's almost encouraging vs the 78k the day before.
    - Genesis Croix de Fer
    - Dolan Tuono
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,152
    rick_chasey said:

    The problem with this exponential infectivity is you really need the hospitalisation rates to drop at an equally exponential rate else you still end up with the same logic as in 2020, and the problem with new variants is that is not the case.

    It's too late to stop whatever is going to happen in some parts of the country, but surely it's not too late for others, like the North East or Wales that don't have the case increases yet.

    Last thing they need is for people to go out this weekend in London then go spread it across the country though.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Yeah.

    I guess we know the cost of lockdowns etc much more than we did in 2020 and there's a view to be taken.

    _

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