The big Coronavirus thread

rick_chasey

Shaking hands is about trust right? I trust you're not a disease ridden whatever.

elbowloh

rick_chasey said:

Shaking hands is about trust right? I trust you're not a disease ridden whatever.

Or you don't carry a weapon in your right hand.

pblakeney

I’m left handed. 😉

joe2019

Our local Post Office has just closed for 10 days because someone walked in with Covid and they got pinged, seems a little drastic to me.

TheBigBean

1 billion Oxford-AZ vaccines made. Someone should take a bow.

joe2019

TheBigBean said:

1 billion Oxford-AZ vaccines made. Someone should take a bow.

Sheila?

rjsterry

rick_chasey said:

Shaking hands is about trust right? I trust you're not a disease ridden whatever.

I think you have just made that up.

rjsterry

john80 said:

rick_chasey said:

mrb123 said:

darkhairedlord said:

elbowloh said:

TheBigBean said:

Pross said:

TheBigBean said:

elbowloh said:

TheBigBean said:

I see things have moved on from the UK should have copied New Zealand to the UK should have copied Japan.

Which no one has said.

You should try reading the posts .

I did read them. Why are people comparing the UK to Japan? What is the relevance?

It came from someone saying an unfavourable comparison of death rates per 100,000 with Ireland wasn't fair as Ireland is less densely populated so someone else did a comparison with Japan where populations are more dense.

Yes, but the only possible reason for making such a comparison is to suggest the UK should have done better that it should have done as well as Ireland and Japan. I presumed this was by employing the same expert pandemic handling techniques, but I was told this wasn't what anyone said. So perhaps the UK should have done as well as Japan in completely different way, but I'm struggling with the relevance of that.

Nope it was merely to show that population density isn't the only reason why COVID spreads in some countries over others.

The japanese are traditionally more stand-offish, and probably wash their hands after going to the khazi.

I never quite understood why all our attempts to find an alternative to the handshake (elbow bumps, fist bumps etc) still involved physical contact, whereas the Japanese bow works perfectly well with no physical contact at all.

Turn it around - what is it about European culture that means contact is important and why do you think contact is included in the greeting?

We love touching people. I will just leave that there.

Speak for yourself.

First.Aspect

john80 said:

rick_chasey said:

mrb123 said:

darkhairedlord said:

elbowloh said:

TheBigBean said:

Pross said:

TheBigBean said:

elbowloh said:

TheBigBean said:

I see things have moved on from the UK should have copied New Zealand to the UK should have copied Japan.

Which no one has said.

You should try reading the posts .

I did read them. Why are people comparing the UK to Japan? What is the relevance?

It came from someone saying an unfavourable comparison of death rates per 100,000 with Ireland wasn't fair as Ireland is less densely populated so someone else did a comparison with Japan where populations are more dense.

Yes, but the only possible reason for making such a comparison is to suggest the UK should have done better that it should have done as well as Ireland and Japan. I presumed this was by employing the same expert pandemic handling techniques, but I was told this wasn't what anyone said. So perhaps the UK should have done as well as Japan in completely different way, but I'm struggling with the relevance of that.

Nope it was merely to show that population density isn't the only reason why COVID spreads in some countries over others.

The japanese are traditionally more stand-offish, and probably wash their hands after going to the khazi.

I never quite understood why all our attempts to find an alternative to the handshake (elbow bumps, fist bumps etc) still involved physical contact, whereas the Japanese bow works perfectly well with no physical contact at all.

Turn it around - what is it about European culture that means contact is important and why do you think contact is included in the greeting?

We love touching people. I will just leave that there.

Do you eventually get used to wearing an electronic tag around your ankle, John?

focuszing723

Israel will begin offering a third shot of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine to people aged over 60 who have already been vaccinated, the country’s prime minister announced on Thursday, becoming the first country to offer a third booster dose to its citizens.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/29/israel-to-offer-pfizer-booster-jab-to-the-over

I know they only have close to a nine million sized population, but still they do seem on top of things.

rick_chasey

Yeah I mentioned that was likely to happen a few weeks ago.

focuszing723

I would like to see my parents get theirs by Autumn/Winter time. It will be interesting what the age cut off will be?

TheBigBean

It's interesting to see how some of the countries who did very well against covid are now doing.
- Thailand is seriously suffering with high number of infections
- Korea's top class track and trace system is battling away keeping infections under 2,000 a day. The hope is that the vaccination rate will increase before they lose control. Some slightly bizarre rules in place.
- Australia. Sydney has been in lockdown for weeks and looks like this will continue until vaccination levels substantially increase. It could be a long lockdown as it is proving impossible to suppress the delta variant.
- Japan decided to host the Olympics and now has 10,000 cases a day
- New Zealand is still the star.

rick_chasey

TheBigBean said:

It's interesting to see how some of the countries who did very well against covid are now doing.
- Thailand is seriously suffering with high number of infections
- Korea's top class track and trace system is battling away keeping infections under 2,000 a day. The hope is that the vaccination rate will increase before they lose control. Some slightly bizarre rules in place.
- Australia. Sydney has been in lockdown for weeks and looks like this will continue until vaccination levels substantially increase. It could be a long lockdown as it is proving impossible to suppress the delta variant.
- Japan decided to host the Olympics and now has 10,000 cases a day
- New Zealand is still the star.

Without the death rates, these are fairly pointless statements.

elbowloh

TheBigBean said:

It's interesting to see how some of the countries who did very well against covid are now doing.
- Thailand is seriously suffering with high number of infections
- Korea's top class track and trace system is battling away keeping infections under 2,000 a day. The hope is that the vaccination rate will increase before they lose control. Some slightly bizarre rules in place.
- Australia. Sydney has been in lockdown for weeks and looks like this will continue until vaccination levels substantially increase. It could be a long lockdown as it is proving impossible to suppress the delta variant.
- Japan decided to host the Olympics and now has 10,000 cases a day
- New Zealand is still the star.

and yet they all, but 1, have number of deaths per 100K population in single digits. The exception being Japan with 12.

Australia - 4
Korea - 4
Thailand - 7
New Zealand - 1

UK? 194.

https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-maps-and-cases/

elbowloh

Actually, look the combined number of deaths in those 5 countries - 22,899.

The UK has had 5.6 times that many deaths with 129,515.

TheBigBean

I specifically picked countries with previously low rates of death, so it's not really surprising that they have low rates of deaths at the moment (Thailand excluded). I found it interesting, but that doesn't mean it is interesting for anyone else.

focuszing723

elbowloh said:

Actually, look the combined number of deaths in those 5 countries - 22,899.

The UK has had 5.6 times that many deaths with 129,515.

How do other Countries calculate this? I heard in the UK it would still be classed as Covid with other complications. Is this the same in other Countries?

TheBigBean

focuszing723 said:

elbowloh said:

Actually, look the combined number of deaths in those 5 countries - 22,899.

The UK has had 5.6 times that many deaths with 129,515.

How do other Countries calculate this? I heard in the UK it would still be classed as Covid with other complications. Is this the same in other Countries?

Every country is different which is why there is focus on excess deaths. In the UK, if you test positive, recover and get run over by a bus, you count. You also count if you are dying of terminal cancer and catch covid on your death bed.

That said, you didn't count in the first wave if you weren't tested and died of covid.

The upshot for the UK is that reported covid deaths, excess deaths and deaths with covid on the death certificate are all quite close. I think at the moment excess deaths are a bit lower.

pangolin

TheBigBean said:

focuszing723 said:

elbowloh said:

Actually, look the combined number of deaths in those 5 countries - 22,899.

The UK has had 5.6 times that many deaths with 129,515.

How do other Countries calculate this? I heard in the UK it would still be classed as Covid with other complications. Is this the same in other Countries?

Every country is different which is why there is focus on excess deaths. In the UK, if you test positive, recover and get run over by a bus, you count. You also count if you are dying of terminal cancer and catch covid on your death bed.

That said, you didn't count in the first wave if you weren't tested and died of covid.

The upshot for the UK is that reported covid deaths, excess deaths and deaths with covid on the death certificate are all quite close. I think at the moment excess deaths are a bit lower.

In fairness they often mention 3 numbers these days. Although when people just quote 1 figure it's not clear which they mean.

It's encouraging, statistics wise, that these numbers aren't enormously out of step with each other.

TheBigBean

pangolin said:

TheBigBean said:

focuszing723 said:

elbowloh said:

Actually, look the combined number of deaths in those 5 countries - 22,899.

The UK has had 5.6 times that many deaths with 129,515.

How do other Countries calculate this? I heard in the UK it would still be classed as Covid with other complications. Is this the same in other Countries?

Every country is different which is why there is focus on excess deaths. In the UK, if you test positive, recover and get run over by a bus, you count. You also count if you are dying of terminal cancer and catch covid on your death bed.

That said, you didn't count in the first wave if you weren't tested and died of covid.

The upshot for the UK is that reported covid deaths, excess deaths and deaths with covid on the death certificate are all quite close. I think at the moment excess deaths are a bit lower.

In fairness they often mention 3 numbers these days. Although when people just quote 1 figure it's not clear which they mean.

It's encouraging, statistics wise, that these numbers aren't enormously out of step with each other.

I hadn't seen a recent update. At the 100k level, they were almost identical.

TheBigBean

It's also not clear how robust excess deaths data is in all countries, so I'm never sure how much to trust it. Italy has recorded 144k deaths to 2/5/21 which is 238/100k (Britain is 170). Bulgaria is 498, Poland 323, Germany 81 and New Zealand -43. Germany's excess deaths are 24k lower than actual deaths.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

rick_chasey

TheBigBean said:

It's also not clear how robust excess deaths data is in all countries, so I'm never sure how much to trust it. Italy has recorded 144k deaths to 2/5/21 which is 238/100k (Britain is 170). Bulgaria is 498, Poland 323, Germany 81 and New Zealand -43. Germany's excess deaths are 24k lower than actual deaths.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

Sure but we're talking an order or two of magnitude difference between Asia countries and European countries here - i don't think the differences in how to count are that big.

TheBigBean

rick_chasey said:

TheBigBean said:

It's also not clear how robust excess deaths data is in all countries, so I'm never sure how much to trust it. Italy has recorded 144k deaths to 2/5/21 which is 238/100k (Britain is 170). Bulgaria is 498, Poland 323, Germany 81 and New Zealand -43. Germany's excess deaths are 24k lower than actual deaths.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

Sure but we're talking an order or two of magnitude difference between Asia countries and European countries here - i don't think the differences in how to count are that big.

Clearly the counting metric used in countries without many deaths isn't especially important although I suspect more people are dying in Thailand at the moment than are being reported officially, not least because it is going to be illegal to report factually correct, but negative things.

TheBigBean

joe2019 said:

TheBigBean said:

1 billion Oxford-AZ vaccines made. Someone should take a bow.

Sheila?

I think anyone involved really.

pblakeney

elbowloh said:

Actually, look the combined number of deaths in those 5 countries - 22,899.

The UK has had 5.6 times that many deaths with 129,515.

Really?
Not a bad guess on the 17th December.

pblakeney said:

surrey_commuter said:

Where do you think we will land?

66,000 now? I'll go for 100-120k by end of July.
You?

Pross

pangolin said:

TheBigBean said:

focuszing723 said:

elbowloh said:

Actually, look the combined number of deaths in those 5 countries - 22,899.

The UK has had 5.6 times that many deaths with 129,515.

How do other Countries calculate this? I heard in the UK it would still be classed as Covid with other complications. Is this the same in other Countries?

Every country is different which is why there is focus on excess deaths. In the UK, if you test positive, recover and get run over by a bus, you count. You also count if you are dying of terminal cancer and catch covid on your death bed.

That said, you didn't count in the first wave if you weren't tested and died of covid.

The upshot for the UK is that reported covid deaths, excess deaths and deaths with covid on the death certificate are all quite close. I think at the moment excess deaths are a bit lower.

In fairness they often mention 3 numbers these days. Although when people just quote 1 figure it's not clear which they mean.

It's encouraging, statistics wise, that these numbers aren't enormously out of step with each other.

I'd argue that the difference between 115k and 150k is statistically significant.

womack

As someone has previously said, a lot depends on honest reporting of figures.

China for example have registered just 4636 deaths since the start and that figure has not changed for quite some time.

Now it may well be they have had no deaths but the sceptic in me doubts it.

DeVlaeminck

Of the 4 older teens in my youngest daughters mini outbreak - they all went on a night out and slept over and all caught it - 3 of the 4 have been quite rough for 3-4 days. Nothing worrying but more than just a cold. The fourth has just had a bit of a headache and achy muscles. Not sure about all of them but my daughter had had both jabs some time ago too.

My wife and I and her siblings have all tested negative - though the eldest only had it a month ago.

surrey_commuter

pblakeney said:

elbowloh said:

Actually, look the combined number of deaths in those 5 countries - 22,899.

The UK has had 5.6 times that many deaths with 129,515.

Really?
Not a bad guess on the 17th December.

pblakeney said:

surrey_commuter said:

Where do you think we will land?

66,000 now? I'll go for 100-120k by end of July.
You?

It does intrigue me that you can remember what you wrote 7.5 months ago