The big Coronavirus thread

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Comments

  • DeVlaeminck
    DeVlaeminck Posts: 9,104

    rjsterry said:

    Ben6899 said:

    Why are none of the news articles, regarding the seventh day drop in infection rates, asking if school holidays are a driver?

    Seems obvious to me, but I'm no epidemiologist.

    I think it's reckoned to be more likely the absence of a football tournament at the moment. There has been a big drop in the number of tests, though, so all a bit unclear.
    We're struggling to get a PCR test
    I had one yesterday - had a choice of 3 centres about 10 miles radius within 2 hours - poor if that's not available everywhere
    [Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
  • Ben6899
    Ben6899 Posts: 9,686
    rjsterry said:

    Ben6899 said:

    rjsterry said:

    Ben6899 said:

    pangolin said:

    Ben6899 said:

    Why are none of the news articles, regarding the seventh day drop in infection rates, asking if school holidays are a driver?

    Seems obvious to me, but I'm no epidemiologist.

    Isn't it a bit soon for many? Lots broke up on 23rd didn't they?
    Test results are immediate though.
    But symptoms take a week or so to develop in order to prompt those tests.
    I thought kids were being asked to test regularly, regardless of symptoms? Blissfully child-free here, so probably wrong!
    Ah, thought you were talking about PCR testing. That's LF tests twice a week. Same for businesses. 🤨. I had assumed that the test data was PCR only.
    I think it is PCR only, but LFs feed into that. If kids were being pulled out of school a week early, then it's about now we'd see the drop off in PCRs.

    I'm basically being pessimistic and assuming the infection rate chart drop-off is mirrored by the PCR rate chart!
    Ben

    Bikes: Donhou DSS4 Custom | Condor Italia RC | Gios Megalite | Dolan Preffisio | Giant Bowery '76
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  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661

    rjsterry said:

    Ben6899 said:

    Why are none of the news articles, regarding the seventh day drop in infection rates, asking if school holidays are a driver?

    Seems obvious to me, but I'm no epidemiologist.

    I think it's reckoned to be more likely the absence of a football tournament at the moment. There has been a big drop in the number of tests, though, so all a bit unclear.
    We're struggling to get a PCR test
    I had one yesterday - had a choice of 3 centres about 10 miles radius within 2 hours - poor if that's not available everywhere
    None available whole of Wednesday or Thursday!
  • john80
    john80 Posts: 2,965
    Ben6899 said:

    Why are none of the news articles, regarding the seventh day drop in infection rates, asking if school holidays are a driver?

    Seems obvious to me, but I'm no epidemiologist.

    That's fine but if we assume the answer is yes then how do you provide schooling post holidays that is not a driver?
  • john80
    john80 Posts: 2,965
    pangolin said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    I've just had my second jab, so in a couple of weeks you can all stop wearing masks, thanks.

    (If that seems like an outrageous position to take it's because it is)

    Meanwhile the woman next to me in the post jab holding pen has her nose completely out of her mask.

    You are going to die. There is no other possible explanation. You should have got in a face to face shouting match to make sure of it.
    Explanation? I think you mean outcome.

    Pretending I am acting as though this will kill me gives you something to argue against, but I'm not so I'm not sure who it is you think you're arguing with.

    Some people have been saying that those unfortunate youths who want both jabs but haven't had them yet should take personal responsibility and avoid shops (or wherever) if they want to.

    They can hardly avoid going to get the jab though. And even somewhere like that there are people so thoughtless or incompetent that they can't or won't wear one properly.

    This is just one example, the premise that 18-35 yr olds should just self isolate for the next 6 weeks is as silly as it was when people suggested old people should do it in 2020. Especially now the alternative is such a small ask.

    I didn't think I would have to join these dots quite so slowly for you.
    I was joking but I seem to have touched a nerve.

    Weak. You weren't joking, unless every post you've made on this topic has been a joke.
    If you can't see the sarcasm of a post equating a minor mask infraction to death and a slew of prior posts arguing that people are being a bit over the top with masks then I can't help you.
    I know you don't actually think I'm going to die - but the point you were making with that 'joke' was bang on trend with the rest of the guff you've posted about masks.

    You're still arguing against a point that I don't really think anyone is making. On an individual level any given interaction with a maskless person is very unlikely to be harmful, yes. On a population wide level, remove restrictions and some of these interactions will result in infections... obviously.

    Anyway it's been spelled out for you plenty of times now. At least DV had the honesty to say he just didn't want to wear one, rather than pretending he was doing some rainman-esque risk calculations every time he did anything. If the population as a whole was capable of working out their risk effectively, there would be no pandemic.
    The population have worked out their risk and are acting accordingly throughout. Just because their risk level is different to most on this forum does not make them wrong. It might be late for you to realise that a good percentage of the population saw that we were no New Zealand and the death rate was acceptable to them regardless of how many cake stoppers wanted to get annoyed with them. How many people has Nicola sturgeon saved with holding onto restrictions longer and doing things a couple of days earlier it of a cobra meeting? How many have Ireland saved by being a bit stricter throughout?
    The population were left to work out the risk themselves at Christmas John and we saw how that went.

    I don't think I've seen a single person on here say they think Sturgeon is doing a good job, odd example there.
    Maybe they were happy with their choices. The government can't control everything can it.
    The government were in control. It was their decision to remove restrictions. What are you on about?
    You have some pretty rose tinted glasses on their regarding how much control the government had in December some 8-9 months into restrictions.
  • Ben6899
    Ben6899 Posts: 9,686
    edited July 2021
    john80 said:

    Ben6899 said:

    Why are none of the news articles, regarding the seventh day drop in infection rates, asking if school holidays are a driver?

    Seems obvious to me, but I'm no epidemiologist.

    That's fine but if we assume the answer is yes then how do you provide schooling post holidays that is not a driver?

    I'm not suggesting we change how we provide schooling; I'm suggesting there are fewer positive tests because there are fewer tests in total (as a result of school kids suddenly not testing).
    Ben

    Bikes: Donhou DSS4 Custom | Condor Italia RC | Gios Megalite | Dolan Preffisio | Giant Bowery '76
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  • womack
    womack Posts: 566

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    I've just had my second jab, so in a couple of weeks you can all stop wearing masks, thanks.

    (If that seems like an outrageous position to take it's because it is)

    Meanwhile the woman next to me in the post jab holding pen has her nose completely out of her mask.

    You are going to die. There is no other possible explanation. You should have got in a face to face shouting match to make sure of it.
    Explanation? I think you mean outcome.

    Pretending I am acting as though this will kill me gives you something to argue against, but I'm not so I'm not sure who it is you think you're arguing with.

    Some people have been saying that those unfortunate youths who want both jabs but haven't had them yet should take personal responsibility and avoid shops (or wherever) if they want to.

    They can hardly avoid going to get the jab though. And even somewhere like that there are people so thoughtless or incompetent that they can't or won't wear one properly.

    This is just one example, the premise that 18-35 yr olds should just self isolate for the next 6 weeks is as silly as it was when people suggested old people should do it in 2020. Especially now the alternative is such a small ask.

    I didn't think I would have to join these dots quite so slowly for you.
    I was joking but I seem to have touched a nerve.

    Weak. You weren't joking, unless every post you've made on this topic has been a joke.
    If you can't see the sarcasm of a post equating a minor mask infraction to death and a slew of prior posts arguing that people are being a bit over the top with masks then I can't help you.
    I know you don't actually think I'm going to die - but the point you were making with that 'joke' was bang on trend with the rest of the guff you've posted about masks.

    You're still arguing against a point that I don't really think anyone is making. On an individual level any given interaction with a maskless person is very unlikely to be harmful, yes. On a population wide level, remove restrictions and some of these interactions will result in infections... obviously.

    Anyway it's been spelled out for you plenty of times now. At least DV had the honesty to say he just didn't want to wear one, rather than pretending he was doing some rainman-esque risk calculations every time he did anything. If the population as a whole was capable of working out their risk effectively, there would be no pandemic.
    The population have worked out their risk and are acting accordingly throughout. Just because their risk level is different to most on this forum does not make them wrong. It might be late for you to realise that a good percentage of the population saw that we were no New Zealand and the death rate was acceptable to them regardless of how many cake stoppers wanted to get annoyed with them. How many people has Nicola sturgeon saved with holding onto restrictions longer and doing things a couple of days earlier it of a cobra meeting? How many have Ireland saved by being a bit stricter throughout?
    The last question is a good one so I looked it up and I reckon we would have saved 60,000 lives if we had done the same as Ireland.

    UK = 1,900 Covid deaths per million
    RoI = 1,000 Covid deaths per million
    I take figures like that with a pinch of salt due to population density.

    It would appear to me that the more the population are crammed together the easier the transmission of any virus.
  • Jezyboy
    Jezyboy Posts: 3,610
    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    I've just had my second jab, so in a couple of weeks you can all stop wearing masks, thanks.

    (If that seems like an outrageous position to take it's because it is)

    Meanwhile the woman next to me in the post jab holding pen has her nose completely out of her mask.

    You are going to die. There is no other possible explanation. You should have got in a face to face shouting match to make sure of it.
    Explanation? I think you mean outcome.

    Pretending I am acting as though this will kill me gives you something to argue against, but I'm not so I'm not sure who it is you think you're arguing with.

    Some people have been saying that those unfortunate youths who want both jabs but haven't had them yet should take personal responsibility and avoid shops (or wherever) if they want to.

    They can hardly avoid going to get the jab though. And even somewhere like that there are people so thoughtless or incompetent that they can't or won't wear one properly.

    This is just one example, the premise that 18-35 yr olds should just self isolate for the next 6 weeks is as silly as it was when people suggested old people should do it in 2020. Especially now the alternative is such a small ask.

    I didn't think I would have to join these dots quite so slowly for you.
    I was joking but I seem to have touched a nerve.

    Weak. You weren't joking, unless every post you've made on this topic has been a joke.
    If you can't see the sarcasm of a post equating a minor mask infraction to death and a slew of prior posts arguing that people are being a bit over the top with masks then I can't help you.
    I know you don't actually think I'm going to die - but the point you were making with that 'joke' was bang on trend with the rest of the guff you've posted about masks.

    You're still arguing against a point that I don't really think anyone is making. On an individual level any given interaction with a maskless person is very unlikely to be harmful, yes. On a population wide level, remove restrictions and some of these interactions will result in infections... obviously.

    Anyway it's been spelled out for you plenty of times now. At least DV had the honesty to say he just didn't want to wear one, rather than pretending he was doing some rainman-esque risk calculations every time he did anything. If the population as a whole was capable of working out their risk effectively, there would be no pandemic.
    The population have worked out their risk and are acting accordingly throughout. Just because their risk level is different to most on this forum does not make them wrong. It might be late for you to realise that a good percentage of the population saw that we were no New Zealand and the death rate was acceptable to them regardless of how many cake stoppers wanted to get annoyed with them. How many people has Nicola sturgeon saved with holding onto restrictions longer and doing things a couple of days earlier it of a cobra meeting? How many have Ireland saved by being a bit stricter throughout?
    The population were left to work out the risk themselves at Christmas John and we saw how that went.

    I don't think I've seen a single person on here say they think Sturgeon is doing a good job, odd example there.
    Maybe they were happy with their choices. The government can't control everything can it.
    The government were in control. It was their decision to remove restrictions. What are you on about?
    You have some pretty rose tinted glasses on their regarding how much control the government had in December some 8-9 months into restrictions.
    And you are forgetting their greatest hits collection.

    Bangers like, "let's spend the Christmas holidays preparing for a new school testing regime send half the kids to school for one day and then make a national announcement after bed time that all schools are shutting."

    Or "causing a national dash up north on packed trains, as we messa around with dates for restrictions"

    But their greatest hit is surely the classic "let all the oldies die within site of the vaccine roll out"

  • pangolin
    pangolin Posts: 6,648
    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    I've just had my second jab, so in a couple of weeks you can all stop wearing masks, thanks.

    (If that seems like an outrageous position to take it's because it is)

    Meanwhile the woman next to me in the post jab holding pen has her nose completely out of her mask.

    You are going to die. There is no other possible explanation. You should have got in a face to face shouting match to make sure of it.
    Explanation? I think you mean outcome.

    Pretending I am acting as though this will kill me gives you something to argue against, but I'm not so I'm not sure who it is you think you're arguing with.

    Some people have been saying that those unfortunate youths who want both jabs but haven't had them yet should take personal responsibility and avoid shops (or wherever) if they want to.

    They can hardly avoid going to get the jab though. And even somewhere like that there are people so thoughtless or incompetent that they can't or won't wear one properly.

    This is just one example, the premise that 18-35 yr olds should just self isolate for the next 6 weeks is as silly as it was when people suggested old people should do it in 2020. Especially now the alternative is such a small ask.

    I didn't think I would have to join these dots quite so slowly for you.
    I was joking but I seem to have touched a nerve.

    Weak. You weren't joking, unless every post you've made on this topic has been a joke.
    If you can't see the sarcasm of a post equating a minor mask infraction to death and a slew of prior posts arguing that people are being a bit over the top with masks then I can't help you.
    I know you don't actually think I'm going to die - but the point you were making with that 'joke' was bang on trend with the rest of the guff you've posted about masks.

    You're still arguing against a point that I don't really think anyone is making. On an individual level any given interaction with a maskless person is very unlikely to be harmful, yes. On a population wide level, remove restrictions and some of these interactions will result in infections... obviously.

    Anyway it's been spelled out for you plenty of times now. At least DV had the honesty to say he just didn't want to wear one, rather than pretending he was doing some rainman-esque risk calculations every time he did anything. If the population as a whole was capable of working out their risk effectively, there would be no pandemic.
    The population have worked out their risk and are acting accordingly throughout. Just because their risk level is different to most on this forum does not make them wrong. It might be late for you to realise that a good percentage of the population saw that we were no New Zealand and the death rate was acceptable to them regardless of how many cake stoppers wanted to get annoyed with them. How many people has Nicola sturgeon saved with holding onto restrictions longer and doing things a couple of days earlier it of a cobra meeting? How many have Ireland saved by being a bit stricter throughout?
    The population were left to work out the risk themselves at Christmas John and we saw how that went.

    I don't think I've seen a single person on here say they think Sturgeon is doing a good job, odd example there.
    Maybe they were happy with their choices. The government can't control everything can it.
    The government were in control. It was their decision to remove restrictions. What are you on about?
    You have some pretty rose tinted glasses on their regarding how much control the government had in December some 8-9 months into restrictions.
    I think you continue to underestimate what a high percentage of the population begrudgingly follow the rules.
    - Genesis Croix de Fer
    - Dolan Tuono
  • Jezyboy
    Jezyboy Posts: 3,610
    pangolin said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    I've just had my second jab, so in a couple of weeks you can all stop wearing masks, thanks.

    (If that seems like an outrageous position to take it's because it is)

    Meanwhile the woman next to me in the post jab holding pen has her nose completely out of her mask.

    You are going to die. There is no other possible explanation. You should have got in a face to face shouting match to make sure of it.
    Explanation? I think you mean outcome.

    Pretending I am acting as though this will kill me gives you something to argue against, but I'm not so I'm not sure who it is you think you're arguing with.

    Some people have been saying that those unfortunate youths who want both jabs but haven't had them yet should take personal responsibility and avoid shops (or wherever) if they want to.

    They can hardly avoid going to get the jab though. And even somewhere like that there are people so thoughtless or incompetent that they can't or won't wear one properly.

    This is just one example, the premise that 18-35 yr olds should just self isolate for the next 6 weeks is as silly as it was when people suggested old people should do it in 2020. Especially now the alternative is such a small ask.

    I didn't think I would have to join these dots quite so slowly for you.
    I was joking but I seem to have touched a nerve.

    Weak. You weren't joking, unless every post you've made on this topic has been a joke.
    If you can't see the sarcasm of a post equating a minor mask infraction to death and a slew of prior posts arguing that people are being a bit over the top with masks then I can't help you.
    I know you don't actually think I'm going to die - but the point you were making with that 'joke' was bang on trend with the rest of the guff you've posted about masks.

    You're still arguing against a point that I don't really think anyone is making. On an individual level any given interaction with a maskless person is very unlikely to be harmful, yes. On a population wide level, remove restrictions and some of these interactions will result in infections... obviously.

    Anyway it's been spelled out for you plenty of times now. At least DV had the honesty to say he just didn't want to wear one, rather than pretending he was doing some rainman-esque risk calculations every time he did anything. If the population as a whole was capable of working out their risk effectively, there would be no pandemic.
    The population have worked out their risk and are acting accordingly throughout. Just because their risk level is different to most on this forum does not make them wrong. It might be late for you to realise that a good percentage of the population saw that we were no New Zealand and the death rate was acceptable to them regardless of how many cake stoppers wanted to get annoyed with them. How many people has Nicola sturgeon saved with holding onto restrictions longer and doing things a couple of days earlier it of a cobra meeting? How many have Ireland saved by being a bit stricter throughout?
    The population were left to work out the risk themselves at Christmas John and we saw how that went.

    I don't think I've seen a single person on here say they think Sturgeon is doing a good job, odd example there.
    Maybe they were happy with their choices. The government can't control everything can it.
    The government were in control. It was their decision to remove restrictions. What are you on about?
    You have some pretty rose tinted glasses on their regarding how much control the government had in December some 8-9 months into restrictions.
    I think you continue to underestimate what a high percentage of the population begrudgingly follow the rules.
    Neighbour (well across the road) bumped into us (not literally) in the park on Christmas day walking his dog... He was missing lunch to ensure the number round the table during lunch was below 6.

    I'm sure it's not the only example of a group who tried to follow right up to the letter of the law/guidance whatever it was.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    womack said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    I've just had my second jab, so in a couple of weeks you can all stop wearing masks, thanks.

    (If that seems like an outrageous position to take it's because it is)

    Meanwhile the woman next to me in the post jab holding pen has her nose completely out of her mask.

    You are going to die. There is no other possible explanation. You should have got in a face to face shouting match to make sure of it.
    Explanation? I think you mean outcome.

    Pretending I am acting as though this will kill me gives you something to argue against, but I'm not so I'm not sure who it is you think you're arguing with.

    Some people have been saying that those unfortunate youths who want both jabs but haven't had them yet should take personal responsibility and avoid shops (or wherever) if they want to.

    They can hardly avoid going to get the jab though. And even somewhere like that there are people so thoughtless or incompetent that they can't or won't wear one properly.

    This is just one example, the premise that 18-35 yr olds should just self isolate for the next 6 weeks is as silly as it was when people suggested old people should do it in 2020. Especially now the alternative is such a small ask.

    I didn't think I would have to join these dots quite so slowly for you.
    I was joking but I seem to have touched a nerve.

    Weak. You weren't joking, unless every post you've made on this topic has been a joke.
    If you can't see the sarcasm of a post equating a minor mask infraction to death and a slew of prior posts arguing that people are being a bit over the top with masks then I can't help you.
    I know you don't actually think I'm going to die - but the point you were making with that 'joke' was bang on trend with the rest of the guff you've posted about masks.

    You're still arguing against a point that I don't really think anyone is making. On an individual level any given interaction with a maskless person is very unlikely to be harmful, yes. On a population wide level, remove restrictions and some of these interactions will result in infections... obviously.

    Anyway it's been spelled out for you plenty of times now. At least DV had the honesty to say he just didn't want to wear one, rather than pretending he was doing some rainman-esque risk calculations every time he did anything. If the population as a whole was capable of working out their risk effectively, there would be no pandemic.
    The population have worked out their risk and are acting accordingly throughout. Just because their risk level is different to most on this forum does not make them wrong. It might be late for you to realise that a good percentage of the population saw that we were no New Zealand and the death rate was acceptable to them regardless of how many cake stoppers wanted to get annoyed with them. How many people has Nicola sturgeon saved with holding onto restrictions longer and doing things a couple of days earlier it of a cobra meeting? How many have Ireland saved by being a bit stricter throughout?
    The last question is a good one so I looked it up and I reckon we would have saved 60,000 lives if we had done the same as Ireland.

    UK = 1,900 Covid deaths per million
    RoI = 1,000 Covid deaths per million
    I take figures like that with a pinch of salt due to population density.

    It would appear to me that the more the population are crammed together the easier the transmission of any virus.
    RoI is 63% urban (UK 80%) so that would not explain the full difference

    Back in March deaths were doubling every 3-4 days so delaying lockdown by 2-3 weeks caused a lot of extra deaths. Not realising Covid did not stop for Xmas likewise cost a lot of extra deaths.

    So allowing for Ireland being a third more rural then our laxer measures cost circa 40,000 lives?
  • elbowloh
    elbowloh Posts: 7,078
    womack said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    I've just had my second jab, so in a couple of weeks you can all stop wearing masks, thanks.

    (If that seems like an outrageous position to take it's because it is)

    Meanwhile the woman next to me in the post jab holding pen has her nose completely out of her mask.

    You are going to die. There is no other possible explanation. You should have got in a face to face shouting match to make sure of it.
    Explanation? I think you mean outcome.

    Pretending I am acting as though this will kill me gives you something to argue against, but I'm not so I'm not sure who it is you think you're arguing with.

    Some people have been saying that those unfortunate youths who want both jabs but haven't had them yet should take personal responsibility and avoid shops (or wherever) if they want to.

    They can hardly avoid going to get the jab though. And even somewhere like that there are people so thoughtless or incompetent that they can't or won't wear one properly.

    This is just one example, the premise that 18-35 yr olds should just self isolate for the next 6 weeks is as silly as it was when people suggested old people should do it in 2020. Especially now the alternative is such a small ask.

    I didn't think I would have to join these dots quite so slowly for you.
    I was joking but I seem to have touched a nerve.

    Weak. You weren't joking, unless every post you've made on this topic has been a joke.
    If you can't see the sarcasm of a post equating a minor mask infraction to death and a slew of prior posts arguing that people are being a bit over the top with masks then I can't help you.
    I know you don't actually think I'm going to die - but the point you were making with that 'joke' was bang on trend with the rest of the guff you've posted about masks.

    You're still arguing against a point that I don't really think anyone is making. On an individual level any given interaction with a maskless person is very unlikely to be harmful, yes. On a population wide level, remove restrictions and some of these interactions will result in infections... obviously.

    Anyway it's been spelled out for you plenty of times now. At least DV had the honesty to say he just didn't want to wear one, rather than pretending he was doing some rainman-esque risk calculations every time he did anything. If the population as a whole was capable of working out their risk effectively, there would be no pandemic.
    The population have worked out their risk and are acting accordingly throughout. Just because their risk level is different to most on this forum does not make them wrong. It might be late for you to realise that a good percentage of the population saw that we were no New Zealand and the death rate was acceptable to them regardless of how many cake stoppers wanted to get annoyed with them. How many people has Nicola sturgeon saved with holding onto restrictions longer and doing things a couple of days earlier it of a cobra meeting? How many have Ireland saved by being a bit stricter throughout?
    The last question is a good one so I looked it up and I reckon we would have saved 60,000 lives if we had done the same as Ireland.

    UK = 1,900 Covid deaths per million
    RoI = 1,000 Covid deaths per million
    I take figures like that with a pinch of salt due to population density.

    It would appear to me that the more the population are crammed together the easier the transmission of any virus.
    Japan 119 deaths per million.

    Japan is much more densely populated than the UK
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  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,154
    Ben6899 said:

    rjsterry said:

    Ben6899 said:

    rjsterry said:

    Ben6899 said:

    pangolin said:

    Ben6899 said:

    Why are none of the news articles, regarding the seventh day drop in infection rates, asking if school holidays are a driver?

    Seems obvious to me, but I'm no epidemiologist.

    Isn't it a bit soon for many? Lots broke up on 23rd didn't they?
    Test results are immediate though.
    But symptoms take a week or so to develop in order to prompt those tests.
    I thought kids were being asked to test regularly, regardless of symptoms? Blissfully child-free here, so probably wrong!
    Ah, thought you were talking about PCR testing. That's LF tests twice a week. Same for businesses. 🤨. I had assumed that the test data was PCR only.
    I think it is PCR only, but LFs feed into that. If kids were being pulled out of school a week early, then it's about now we'd see the drop off in PCRs.

    I'm basically being pessimistic and assuming the infection rate chart drop-off is mirrored by the PCR rate chart!
    Test numbers include pcr and lf. Case numbers include both as well (in England). If a lateral flow case is confirmed by pcr, it only counts once.
  • mully79
    mully79 Posts: 904
    elbowloh said:

    womack said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    I've just had my second jab, so in a couple of weeks you can all stop wearing masks, thanks.

    (If that seems like an outrageous position to take it's because it is)

    Meanwhile the woman next to me in the post jab holding pen has her nose completely out of her mask.

    You are going to die. There is no other possible explanation. You should have got in a face to face shouting match to make sure of it.
    Explanation? I think you mean outcome.

    Pretending I am acting as though this will kill me gives you something to argue against, but I'm not so I'm not sure who it is you think you're arguing with.

    Some people have been saying that those unfortunate youths who want both jabs but haven't had them yet should take personal responsibility and avoid shops (or wherever) if they want to.

    They can hardly avoid going to get the jab though. And even somewhere like that there are people so thoughtless or incompetent that they can't or won't wear one properly.

    This is just one example, the premise that 18-35 yr olds should just self isolate for the next 6 weeks is as silly as it was when people suggested old people should do it in 2020. Especially now the alternative is such a small ask.

    I didn't think I would have to join these dots quite so slowly for you.
    I was joking but I seem to have touched a nerve.

    Weak. You weren't joking, unless every post you've made on this topic has been a joke.
    If you can't see the sarcasm of a post equating a minor mask infraction to death and a slew of prior posts arguing that people are being a bit over the top with masks then I can't help you.
    I know you don't actually think I'm going to die - but the point you were making with that 'joke' was bang on trend with the rest of the guff you've posted about masks.

    You're still arguing against a point that I don't really think anyone is making. On an individual level any given interaction with a maskless person is very unlikely to be harmful, yes. On a population wide level, remove restrictions and some of these interactions will result in infections... obviously.

    Anyway it's been spelled out for you plenty of times now. At least DV had the honesty to say he just didn't want to wear one, rather than pretending he was doing some rainman-esque risk calculations every time he did anything. If the population as a whole was capable of working out their risk effectively, there would be no pandemic.
    The population have worked out their risk and are acting accordingly throughout. Just because their risk level is different to most on this forum does not make them wrong. It might be late for you to realise that a good percentage of the population saw that we were no New Zealand and the death rate was acceptable to them regardless of how many cake stoppers wanted to get annoyed with them. How many people has Nicola sturgeon saved with holding onto restrictions longer and doing things a couple of days earlier it of a cobra meeting? How many have Ireland saved by being a bit stricter throughout?
    The last question is a good one so I looked it up and I reckon we would have saved 60,000 lives if we had done the same as Ireland.

    UK = 1,900 Covid deaths per million
    RoI = 1,000 Covid deaths per million
    I take figures like that with a pinch of salt due to population density.

    It would appear to me that the more the population are crammed together the easier the transmission of any virus.
    Japan 119 deaths per million.

    Japan is much more densely populated than the UK
    The houses are smaller
  • womack
    womack Posts: 566
    edited July 2021
    elbowloh said:

    womack said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    I've just had my second jab, so in a couple of weeks you can all stop wearing masks, thanks.

    (If that seems like an outrageous position to take it's because it is)

    Meanwhile the woman next to me in the post jab holding pen has her nose completely out of her mask.

    You are going to die. There is no other possible explanation. You should have got in a face to face shouting match to make sure of it.
    Explanation? I think you mean outcome.

    Pretending I am acting as though this will kill me gives you something to argue against, but I'm not so I'm not sure who it is you think you're arguing with.

    Some people have been saying that those unfortunate youths who want both jabs but haven't had them yet should take personal responsibility and avoid shops (or wherever) if they want to.

    They can hardly avoid going to get the jab though. And even somewhere like that there are people so thoughtless or incompetent that they can't or won't wear one properly.

    This is just one example, the premise that 18-35 yr olds should just self isolate for the next 6 weeks is as silly as it was when people suggested old people should do it in 2020. Especially now the alternative is such a small ask.

    I didn't think I would have to join these dots quite so slowly for you.
    I was joking but I seem to have touched a nerve.

    Weak. You weren't joking, unless every post you've made on this topic has been a joke.
    If you can't see the sarcasm of a post equating a minor mask infraction to death and a slew of prior posts arguing that people are being a bit over the top with masks then I can't help you.
    I know you don't actually think I'm going to die - but the point you were making with that 'joke' was bang on trend with the rest of the guff you've posted about masks.

    You're still arguing against a point that I don't really think anyone is making. On an individual level any given interaction with a maskless person is very unlikely to be harmful, yes. On a population wide level, remove restrictions and some of these interactions will result in infections... obviously.

    Anyway it's been spelled out for you plenty of times now. At least DV had the honesty to say he just didn't want to wear one, rather than pretending he was doing some rainman-esque risk calculations every time he did anything. If the population as a whole was capable of working out their risk effectively, there would be no pandemic.
    The population have worked out their risk and are acting accordingly throughout. Just because their risk level is different to most on this forum does not make them wrong. It might be late for you to realise that a good percentage of the population saw that we were no New Zealand and the death rate was acceptable to them regardless of how many cake stoppers wanted to get annoyed with them. How many people has Nicola sturgeon saved with holding onto restrictions longer and doing things a couple of days earlier it of a cobra meeting? How many have Ireland saved by being a bit stricter throughout?
    The last question is a good one so I looked it up and I reckon we would have saved 60,000 lives if we had done the same as Ireland.

    UK = 1,900 Covid deaths per million
    RoI = 1,000 Covid deaths per million
    I take figures like that with a pinch of salt due to population density.

    It would appear to me that the more the population are crammed together the easier the transmission of any virus.
    Japan 119 deaths per million.

    Japan is much more densely populated than the UK
    The land area of Japan is 377000 kilometres 2, the land area of GB is 209000 kilometres 2 so while yes they have a larger population they also have circa 80% more land area.

    Obviously statistics are there for us to believe what we want, we could example Italy, larger land area than GB by quite a bit, similar population and similar deaths.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,154
    womack said:

    elbowloh said:

    womack said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    I've just had my second jab, so in a couple of weeks you can all stop wearing masks, thanks.

    (If that seems like an outrageous position to take it's because it is)

    Meanwhile the woman next to me in the post jab holding pen has her nose completely out of her mask.

    You are going to die. There is no other possible explanation. You should have got in a face to face shouting match to make sure of it.
    Explanation? I think you mean outcome.

    Pretending I am acting as though this will kill me gives you something to argue against, but I'm not so I'm not sure who it is you think you're arguing with.

    Some people have been saying that those unfortunate youths who want both jabs but haven't had them yet should take personal responsibility and avoid shops (or wherever) if they want to.

    They can hardly avoid going to get the jab though. And even somewhere like that there are people so thoughtless or incompetent that they can't or won't wear one properly.

    This is just one example, the premise that 18-35 yr olds should just self isolate for the next 6 weeks is as silly as it was when people suggested old people should do it in 2020. Especially now the alternative is such a small ask.

    I didn't think I would have to join these dots quite so slowly for you.
    I was joking but I seem to have touched a nerve.

    Weak. You weren't joking, unless every post you've made on this topic has been a joke.
    If you can't see the sarcasm of a post equating a minor mask infraction to death and a slew of prior posts arguing that people are being a bit over the top with masks then I can't help you.
    I know you don't actually think I'm going to die - but the point you were making with that 'joke' was bang on trend with the rest of the guff you've posted about masks.

    You're still arguing against a point that I don't really think anyone is making. On an individual level any given interaction with a maskless person is very unlikely to be harmful, yes. On a population wide level, remove restrictions and some of these interactions will result in infections... obviously.

    Anyway it's been spelled out for you plenty of times now. At least DV had the honesty to say he just didn't want to wear one, rather than pretending he was doing some rainman-esque risk calculations every time he did anything. If the population as a whole was capable of working out their risk effectively, there would be no pandemic.
    The population have worked out their risk and are acting accordingly throughout. Just because their risk level is different to most on this forum does not make them wrong. It might be late for you to realise that a good percentage of the population saw that we were no New Zealand and the death rate was acceptable to them regardless of how many cake stoppers wanted to get annoyed with them. How many people has Nicola sturgeon saved with holding onto restrictions longer and doing things a couple of days earlier it of a cobra meeting? How many have Ireland saved by being a bit stricter throughout?
    The last question is a good one so I looked it up and I reckon we would have saved 60,000 lives if we had done the same as Ireland.

    UK = 1,900 Covid deaths per million
    RoI = 1,000 Covid deaths per million
    I take figures like that with a pinch of salt due to population density.

    It would appear to me that the more the population are crammed together the easier the transmission of any virus.
    Japan 119 deaths per million.

    Japan is much more densely populated than the UK
    The land area of Japan is 377000 kilometres 2, the land area of GB is 209000 kilometres 2 so while yes they have a larger population they also have circa 80% more land area.
    90% more people and 80% more land = greater average density of population, no?
  • pangolin
    pangolin Posts: 6,648

    womack said:

    elbowloh said:

    womack said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    I've just had my second jab, so in a couple of weeks you can all stop wearing masks, thanks.

    (If that seems like an outrageous position to take it's because it is)

    Meanwhile the woman next to me in the post jab holding pen has her nose completely out of her mask.

    You are going to die. There is no other possible explanation. You should have got in a face to face shouting match to make sure of it.
    Explanation? I think you mean outcome.

    Pretending I am acting as though this will kill me gives you something to argue against, but I'm not so I'm not sure who it is you think you're arguing with.

    Some people have been saying that those unfortunate youths who want both jabs but haven't had them yet should take personal responsibility and avoid shops (or wherever) if they want to.

    They can hardly avoid going to get the jab though. And even somewhere like that there are people so thoughtless or incompetent that they can't or won't wear one properly.

    This is just one example, the premise that 18-35 yr olds should just self isolate for the next 6 weeks is as silly as it was when people suggested old people should do it in 2020. Especially now the alternative is such a small ask.

    I didn't think I would have to join these dots quite so slowly for you.
    I was joking but I seem to have touched a nerve.

    Weak. You weren't joking, unless every post you've made on this topic has been a joke.
    If you can't see the sarcasm of a post equating a minor mask infraction to death and a slew of prior posts arguing that people are being a bit over the top with masks then I can't help you.
    I know you don't actually think I'm going to die - but the point you were making with that 'joke' was bang on trend with the rest of the guff you've posted about masks.

    You're still arguing against a point that I don't really think anyone is making. On an individual level any given interaction with a maskless person is very unlikely to be harmful, yes. On a population wide level, remove restrictions and some of these interactions will result in infections... obviously.

    Anyway it's been spelled out for you plenty of times now. At least DV had the honesty to say he just didn't want to wear one, rather than pretending he was doing some rainman-esque risk calculations every time he did anything. If the population as a whole was capable of working out their risk effectively, there would be no pandemic.
    The population have worked out their risk and are acting accordingly throughout. Just because their risk level is different to most on this forum does not make them wrong. It might be late for you to realise that a good percentage of the population saw that we were no New Zealand and the death rate was acceptable to them regardless of how many cake stoppers wanted to get annoyed with them. How many people has Nicola sturgeon saved with holding onto restrictions longer and doing things a couple of days earlier it of a cobra meeting? How many have Ireland saved by being a bit stricter throughout?
    The last question is a good one so I looked it up and I reckon we would have saved 60,000 lives if we had done the same as Ireland.

    UK = 1,900 Covid deaths per million
    RoI = 1,000 Covid deaths per million
    I take figures like that with a pinch of salt due to population density.

    It would appear to me that the more the population are crammed together the easier the transmission of any virus.
    Japan 119 deaths per million.

    Japan is much more densely populated than the UK
    The land area of Japan is 377000 kilometres 2, the land area of GB is 209000 kilometres 2 so while yes they have a larger population they also have circa 80% more land area.
    90% more people and 80% more land = greater average density of population, no?
    Also Japan is about 33% habitable due to mountains, vs about 88% for the UK. According to google anyway.

    - Genesis Croix de Fer
    - Dolan Tuono
  • womack
    womack Posts: 566

    womack said:

    elbowloh said:

    womack said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    I've just had my second jab, so in a couple of weeks you can all stop wearing masks, thanks.

    (If that seems like an outrageous position to take it's because it is)

    Meanwhile the woman next to me in the post jab holding pen has her nose completely out of her mask.

    You are going to die. There is no other possible explanation. You should have got in a face to face shouting match to make sure of it.
    Explanation? I think you mean outcome.

    Pretending I am acting as though this will kill me gives you something to argue against, but I'm not so I'm not sure who it is you think you're arguing with.

    Some people have been saying that those unfortunate youths who want both jabs but haven't had them yet should take personal responsibility and avoid shops (or wherever) if they want to.

    They can hardly avoid going to get the jab though. And even somewhere like that there are people so thoughtless or incompetent that they can't or won't wear one properly.

    This is just one example, the premise that 18-35 yr olds should just self isolate for the next 6 weeks is as silly as it was when people suggested old people should do it in 2020. Especially now the alternative is such a small ask.

    I didn't think I would have to join these dots quite so slowly for you.
    I was joking but I seem to have touched a nerve.

    Weak. You weren't joking, unless every post you've made on this topic has been a joke.
    If you can't see the sarcasm of a post equating a minor mask infraction to death and a slew of prior posts arguing that people are being a bit over the top with masks then I can't help you.
    I know you don't actually think I'm going to die - but the point you were making with that 'joke' was bang on trend with the rest of the guff you've posted about masks.

    You're still arguing against a point that I don't really think anyone is making. On an individual level any given interaction with a maskless person is very unlikely to be harmful, yes. On a population wide level, remove restrictions and some of these interactions will result in infections... obviously.

    Anyway it's been spelled out for you plenty of times now. At least DV had the honesty to say he just didn't want to wear one, rather than pretending he was doing some rainman-esque risk calculations every time he did anything. If the population as a whole was capable of working out their risk effectively, there would be no pandemic.
    The population have worked out their risk and are acting accordingly throughout. Just because their risk level is different to most on this forum does not make them wrong. It might be late for you to realise that a good percentage of the population saw that we were no New Zealand and the death rate was acceptable to them regardless of how many cake stoppers wanted to get annoyed with them. How many people has Nicola sturgeon saved with holding onto restrictions longer and doing things a couple of days earlier it of a cobra meeting? How many have Ireland saved by being a bit stricter throughout?
    The last question is a good one so I looked it up and I reckon we would have saved 60,000 lives if we had done the same as Ireland.

    UK = 1,900 Covid deaths per million
    RoI = 1,000 Covid deaths per million
    I take figures like that with a pinch of salt due to population density.

    It would appear to me that the more the population are crammed together the easier the transmission of any virus.
    Japan 119 deaths per million.

    Japan is much more densely populated than the UK
    The land area of Japan is 377000 kilometres 2, the land area of GB is 209000 kilometres 2 so while yes they have a larger population they also have circa 80% more land area.
    90% more people and 80% more land = greater average density of population, no?
    Whilst you were answering I was editing my post to example Italy. Seems a better comparison but I can't be bothered working out the percentages.
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,463
    So we're opening up to vaccinated people arriving from the US and EU (I don't have an issue, it seems odd that currently a double vaccinated Brit returning doesn't have to isolate but a foreigner does). However, it's being hailed as a tourism boost. Where will all these tourists visiting places outside of London be staying given the lack of vacancies due to Brits holidaying over here?
  • Jezyboy
    Jezyboy Posts: 3,610
    Is it not just an attempt to try and get the EU and USA to return the favour?
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,154
    Pross said:

    So we're opening up to vaccinated people arriving from the US and EU (I don't have an issue, it seems odd that currently a double vaccinated Brit returning doesn't have to isolate but a foreigner does). However, it's being hailed as a tourism boost. Where will all these tourists visiting places outside of London be staying given the lack of vacancies due to Brits holidaying over here?

    Are city breaks doing well among brits?
  • womack
    womack Posts: 566
    Pross said:

    So we're opening up to vaccinated people arriving from the US and EU (I don't have an issue, it seems odd that currently a double vaccinated Brit returning doesn't have to isolate but a foreigner does). However, it's being hailed as a tourism boost. Where will all these tourists visiting places outside of London be staying given the lack of vacancies due to Brits holidaying over here?

    They will all be flocking to Blaenau Ffestiniog to see the slate after today's UNESCO announcement!

    Don't know where they will all stay mind.
  • elbowloh
    elbowloh Posts: 7,078
    edited July 2021
    womack said:

    elbowloh said:

    womack said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    I've just had my second jab, so in a couple of weeks you can all stop wearing masks, thanks.

    (If that seems like an outrageous position to take it's because it is)

    Meanwhile the woman next to me in the post jab holding pen has her nose completely out of her mask.

    You are going to die. There is no other possible explanation. You should have got in a face to face shouting match to make sure of it.
    Explanation? I think you mean outcome.

    Pretending I am acting as though this will kill me gives you something to argue against, but I'm not so I'm not sure who it is you think you're arguing with.

    Some people have been saying that those unfortunate youths who want both jabs but haven't had them yet should take personal responsibility and avoid shops (or wherever) if they want to.

    They can hardly avoid going to get the jab though. And even somewhere like that there are people so thoughtless or incompetent that they can't or won't wear one properly.

    This is just one example, the premise that 18-35 yr olds should just self isolate for the next 6 weeks is as silly as it was when people suggested old people should do it in 2020. Especially now the alternative is such a small ask.

    I didn't think I would have to join these dots quite so slowly for you.
    I was joking but I seem to have touched a nerve.

    Weak. You weren't joking, unless every post you've made on this topic has been a joke.
    If you can't see the sarcasm of a post equating a minor mask infraction to death and a slew of prior posts arguing that people are being a bit over the top with masks then I can't help you.
    I know you don't actually think I'm going to die - but the point you were making with that 'joke' was bang on trend with the rest of the guff you've posted about masks.

    You're still arguing against a point that I don't really think anyone is making. On an individual level any given interaction with a maskless person is very unlikely to be harmful, yes. On a population wide level, remove restrictions and some of these interactions will result in infections... obviously.

    Anyway it's been spelled out for you plenty of times now. At least DV had the honesty to say he just didn't want to wear one, rather than pretending he was doing some rainman-esque risk calculations every time he did anything. If the population as a whole was capable of working out their risk effectively, there would be no pandemic.
    The population have worked out their risk and are acting accordingly throughout. Just because their risk level is different to most on this forum does not make them wrong. It might be late for you to realise that a good percentage of the population saw that we were no New Zealand and the death rate was acceptable to them regardless of how many cake stoppers wanted to get annoyed with them. How many people has Nicola sturgeon saved with holding onto restrictions longer and doing things a couple of days earlier it of a cobra meeting? How many have Ireland saved by being a bit stricter throughout?
    The last question is a good one so I looked it up and I reckon we would have saved 60,000 lives if we had done the same as Ireland.

    UK = 1,900 Covid deaths per million
    RoI = 1,000 Covid deaths per million
    I take figures like that with a pinch of salt due to population density.

    It would appear to me that the more the population are crammed together the easier the transmission of any virus.
    Japan 119 deaths per million.

    Japan is much more densely populated than the UK
    The land area of Japan is 377000 kilometres 2, the land area of GB is 209000 kilometres 2 so while yes they have a larger population they also have circa 80% more land area.

    Obviously statistics are there for us to believe what we want, we could example Italy, larger land area than GB by quite a bit, similar population and similar deaths.
    Look at their actual population density per km squared.


    Felt F1 2014
    Felt Z6 2012
    Red Arthur Caygill steel frame
    Tall....
    www.seewildlife.co.uk
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,925
    I see things have moved on from the UK should have copied New Zealand to the UK should have copied Japan.
  • elbowloh
    elbowloh Posts: 7,078

    I see things have moved on from the UK should have copied New Zealand to the UK should have copied Japan.

    Which no one has said.

    You should try reading the posts .
    Felt F1 2014
    Felt Z6 2012
    Red Arthur Caygill steel frame
    Tall....
    www.seewildlife.co.uk
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,154
    elbowloh said:

    I see things have moved on from the UK should have copied New Zealand to the UK should have copied Japan.

    Which no one has said.

    You should try reading the posts .
    Don't you dare tell anyone what to do.
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,925
    elbowloh said:

    I see things have moved on from the UK should have copied New Zealand to the UK should have copied Japan.

    Which no one has said.

    You should try reading the posts .
    I did read them. Why are people comparing the UK to Japan? What is the relevance?
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,463

    elbowloh said:

    I see things have moved on from the UK should have copied New Zealand to the UK should have copied Japan.

    Which no one has said.

    You should try reading the posts .
    I did read them. Why are people comparing the UK to Japan? What is the relevance?
    It came from someone saying an unfavourable comparison of death rates per 100,000 with Ireland wasn't fair as Ireland is less densely populated so someone else did a comparison with Japan where populations are more dense.
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,925
    Pross said:

    elbowloh said:

    I see things have moved on from the UK should have copied New Zealand to the UK should have copied Japan.

    Which no one has said.

    You should try reading the posts .
    I did read them. Why are people comparing the UK to Japan? What is the relevance?
    It came from someone saying an unfavourable comparison of death rates per 100,000 with Ireland wasn't fair as Ireland is less densely populated so someone else did a comparison with Japan where populations are more dense.
    Yes, but the only possible reason for making such a comparison is to suggest the UK should have done better that it should have done as well as Ireland and Japan. I presumed this was by employing the same expert pandemic handling techniques, but I was told this wasn't what anyone said. So perhaps the UK should have done as well as Japan in completely different way, but I'm struggling with the relevance of that.
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,463

    Pross said:

    elbowloh said:

    I see things have moved on from the UK should have copied New Zealand to the UK should have copied Japan.

    Which no one has said.

    You should try reading the posts .
    I did read them. Why are people comparing the UK to Japan? What is the relevance?
    It came from someone saying an unfavourable comparison of death rates per 100,000 with Ireland wasn't fair as Ireland is less densely populated so someone else did a comparison with Japan where populations are more dense.
    Yes, but the only possible reason for making such a comparison is to suggest the UK should have done better that it should have done as well as Ireland and Japan. I presumed this was by employing the same expert pandemic handling techniques, but I was told this wasn't what anyone said. So perhaps the UK should have done as well as Japan in completely different way, but I'm struggling with the relevance of that.
    I assume the comparison with Ireland was just down to them being our nearest neighbour and actually sharing an island with us. From memory it was in relation to dealing with the second wave wasn't it? I've probably been more generous than most in giving the benefit of the doubt to the Government response to the first wave but their handling of the second wave was terrible against any measure.