The big Coronavirus thread
Comments
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I think we are in a situation where the figures for infections are sufficiently low that any outbreak of a reasonable size will cause a large percentage increase in a given area. It's a sign of how successful the vaccination programme has been, but clearly could cause undue concern when news headlines of 'cases doubling in random town' show up.DeVlaeminck said:I don't know of any but Erewash is a an area of small towns, fairly urban as it's between two cities and some of it is really Nottm suburbia.
Its mostly white middle England I can't see the take up rates being low at all.
Edit - my wife who works in public health locally tells me it's down to an outbreak at one secondary school ."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
In Erewash it is "cases up 16 fold in two weeks" to a genuinely quite high level, so it's worth paying attention to. Especially if you weren't vaccinated.Stevo_666 said:
I think we are in a situation where the figures for infections are sufficiently low that any outbreak of a reasonable size will cause a large percentage increase in a given area. It's a sign of how successful the vaccination programme has been, but clearly could cause undue concern when news headlines of 'cases doubling in random town' show up.DeVlaeminck said:I don't know of any but Erewash is a an area of small towns, fairly urban as it's between two cities and some of it is really Nottm suburbia.
Its mostly white middle England I can't see the take up rates being low at all.
Edit - my wife who works in public health locally tells me it's down to an outbreak at one secondary school .
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Is it not more to do with the effectiveness of lockdown?Stevo_666 said:
I think we are in a situation where the figures for infections are sufficiently low that any outbreak of a reasonable size will cause a large percentage increase in a given area. It's a sign of how successful the vaccination programme has been, but clearly could cause undue concern when news headlines of 'cases doubling in random town' show up.DeVlaeminck said:I don't know of any but Erewash is a an area of small towns, fairly urban as it's between two cities and some of it is really Nottm suburbia.
Its mostly white middle England I can't see the take up rates being low at all.
Edit - my wife who works in public health locally tells me it's down to an outbreak at one secondary school .0 -
Lock down was the policy to help prevent health services getting overloaded. Different times.
As of 12/5/21, rolling 7 day average covid mentioned deaths per 100,000 for England was 0.1. I.e. 1 in a million per week. Not that much of an overload?0 -
Wasn't there similar thinking towards the tail end of summer?Stevo_666 said:
I think we are in a situation where the figures for infections are sufficiently low that any outbreak of a reasonable size will cause a large percentage increase in a given area. It's a sign of how successful the vaccination programme has been, but clearly could cause undue concern when news headlines of 'cases doubling in random town' show up.DeVlaeminck said:I don't know of any but Erewash is a an area of small towns, fairly urban as it's between two cities and some of it is really Nottm suburbia.
Its mostly white middle England I can't see the take up rates being low at all.
Edit - my wife who works in public health locally tells me it's down to an outbreak at one secondary school .
Perhaps more things are open dohn sarf, but in this, Midlands Town, there are a surprising number of pubs thay have elected not to bother opening their gardens. Anything like normal still feels quite a way yet.0 -
True, but that was before anyone was vaccinated.Jezyboy said:
Wasn't there similar thinking towards the tail end of summer?Stevo_666 said:
I think we are in a situation where the figures for infections are sufficiently low that any outbreak of a reasonable size will cause a large percentage increase in a given area. It's a sign of how successful the vaccination programme has been, but clearly could cause undue concern when news headlines of 'cases doubling in random town' show up.DeVlaeminck said:I don't know of any but Erewash is a an area of small towns, fairly urban as it's between two cities and some of it is really Nottm suburbia.
Its mostly white middle England I can't see the take up rates being low at all.
Edit - my wife who works in public health locally tells me it's down to an outbreak at one secondary school .
Perhaps more things are open dohn sarf, but in this, Midlands Town, there are a surprising number of pubs thay have elected not to bother opening their gardens. Anything like normal still feels quite a way yet."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
I'm sure that played some part as well. There is a lot of evidence out there about the impact of the vaccination programme.rick_chasey said:
Is it not more to do with the effectiveness of lockdown?Stevo_666 said:
I think we are in a situation where the figures for infections are sufficiently low that any outbreak of a reasonable size will cause a large percentage increase in a given area. It's a sign of how successful the vaccination programme has been, but clearly could cause undue concern when news headlines of 'cases doubling in random town' show up.DeVlaeminck said:I don't know of any but Erewash is a an area of small towns, fairly urban as it's between two cities and some of it is really Nottm suburbia.
Its mostly white middle England I can't see the take up rates being low at all.
Edit - my wife who works in public health locally tells me it's down to an outbreak at one secondary school ."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Depends on how many cases they are comparing it to. If it went from 1 case to 16...kingstongraham said:
In Erewash it is "cases up 16 fold in two weeks" to a genuinely quite high level, so it's worth paying attention to. Especially if you weren't vaccinated.Stevo_666 said:
I think we are in a situation where the figures for infections are sufficiently low that any outbreak of a reasonable size will cause a large percentage increase in a given area. It's a sign of how successful the vaccination programme has been, but clearly could cause undue concern when news headlines of 'cases doubling in random town' show up.DeVlaeminck said:I don't know of any but Erewash is a an area of small towns, fairly urban as it's between two cities and some of it is really Nottm suburbia.
Its mostly white middle England I can't see the take up rates being low at all.
Edit - my wife who works in public health locally tells me it's down to an outbreak at one secondary school .
There will always be events like this as vaccines are not 100% effective and there are those who are not yet (and some who never will, be) vaccinated. However the numbers and severity will be much less than if this had happened last year."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Sure but not to that extent.Stevo_666 said:
I'm sure that played some part as well. There is a lot of evidence out there about the impact of the vaccination programme.rick_chasey said:
Is it not more to do with the effectiveness of lockdown?Stevo_666 said:
I think we are in a situation where the figures for infections are sufficiently low that any outbreak of a reasonable size will cause a large percentage increase in a given area. It's a sign of how successful the vaccination programme has been, but clearly could cause undue concern when news headlines of 'cases doubling in random town' show up.DeVlaeminck said:I don't know of any but Erewash is a an area of small towns, fairly urban as it's between two cities and some of it is really Nottm suburbia.
Its mostly white middle England I can't see the take up rates being low at all.
Edit - my wife who works in public health locally tells me it's down to an outbreak at one secondary school .
There are a lot of people still without even one jab0 -
What is currently getting on my radar is that most nations I want to go to will likely require both jabs to have happened to travel which means I will likely miss the summer season entirely.0
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Even if you have had both, your daughter won't. I've almost given up on a summer holiday.rick_chasey said:What is currently getting on my radar is that most nations I want to go to will likely require both jabs to have happened to travel which means I will likely miss the summer season entirely.
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Not a bad result from the vaccination programme, 11,700 over 60s alive that would otherwise have died, and 33,000 fewer hospital admissions:
https://bbc.co.uk/news/health-57102422
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Were you seriously expecting to go abroad this summer? Even if you'd had both jabs?rick_chasey said:What is currently getting on my radar is that most nations I want to go to will likely require both jabs to have happened to travel which means I will likely miss the summer season entirely.
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Same for most of us, jabs or not. Too much uncertainty. At least being in the UK means you have a better chance compared to nearly any other country of being fully vaccinated by a given time.rick_chasey said:What is currently getting on my radar is that most nations I want to go to will likely require both jabs to have happened to travel which means I will likely miss the summer season entirely.
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
For sure the Indian variant is now seeded. Boris on the tv so that means hes going to pretend everything is ok and on plan and we need to be careful.
The horse has clearly bolted IMO so I imagine by end of next week we'll be going backwards on opening up but I reckon within two weeks vacinations will be open to everyone.0 -
You can always voluntarily hide behind the sofa if you're convinced that lockdowns are the best thing.rick_chasey said:
Sure but not to that extent.Stevo_666 said:
I'm sure that played some part as well. There is a lot of evidence out there about the impact of the vaccination programme.rick_chasey said:
Is it not more to do with the effectiveness of lockdown?Stevo_666 said:
I think we are in a situation where the figures for infections are sufficiently low that any outbreak of a reasonable size will cause a large percentage increase in a given area. It's a sign of how successful the vaccination programme has been, but clearly could cause undue concern when news headlines of 'cases doubling in random town' show up.DeVlaeminck said:I don't know of any but Erewash is a an area of small towns, fairly urban as it's between two cities and some of it is really Nottm suburbia.
Its mostly white middle England I can't see the take up rates being low at all.
Edit - my wife who works in public health locally tells me it's down to an outbreak at one secondary school .
There are a lot of people still without even one jab
In the end, the vaccine programme is the only real exit route. Lockdowns just bought time before the vaccines."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]2 -
Besides having two jabs, several tests and a spell in isolation, what do you think needs to happen before summer holidays can resume?Dorset_Boy said:
Were you seriously expecting to go abroad this summer? Even if you'd had both jabs?rick_chasey said:What is currently getting on my radar is that most nations I want to go to will likely require both jabs to have happened to travel which means I will likely miss the summer season entirely.
Or don't you think they will return?"Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.0 -
It would be interesting to know what they were comparing the actual figures to make that calculation.Dorset_Boy said:Not a bad result from the vaccination programme, 11,700 over 60s alive that would otherwise have died, and 33,000 fewer hospital admissions:
https://bbc.co.uk/news/health-57102422
I mean, I'd suppose the benefit to vaccine is small when lockdown is in place, the benefits coming when the vaccine is in effect substituting for the lockdown as life returns to normal
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
Stevo_666 said:
Depends on how many cases they are comparing it to. If it went from 1 case to 16...kingstongraham said:
In Erewash it is "cases up 16 fold in two weeks" to a genuinely quite high level, so it's worth paying attention to. Especially if you weren't vaccinated.Stevo_666 said:
I think we are in a situation where the figures for infections are sufficiently low that any outbreak of a reasonable size will cause a large percentage increase in a given area. It's a sign of how successful the vaccination programme has been, but clearly could cause undue concern when news headlines of 'cases doubling in random town' show up.DeVlaeminck said:I don't know of any but Erewash is a an area of small towns, fairly urban as it's between two cities and some of it is really Nottm suburbia.
Its mostly white middle England I can't see the take up rates being low at all.
Edit - my wife who works in public health locally tells me it's down to an outbreak at one secondary school .
There will always be events like this as vaccines are not 100% effective and there are those who are not yet (and some who never will, be) vaccinated. However the numbers and severity will be much less than if this had happened last year.
Erewash is around the level we were at before Christmas when we were put into Tier 3 travel restrictions - so purely in terms of numbers it's significant - probably 50% of the winter peak in this area.
[Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]0 -
I think you've answered the question with your statement about needing the tests (expensive) and isolation (expensive), plus travel insurance is unlikely to cover you.blazing_saddles said:
Besides having two jabs, several tests and a spell in isolation, what do you think needs to happen before summer holidays can resume?Dorset_Boy said:
Were you seriously expecting to go abroad this summer? Even if you'd had both jabs?rick_chasey said:What is currently getting on my radar is that most nations I want to go to will likely require both jabs to have happened to travel which means I will likely miss the summer season entirely.
Or don't you think they will return?
When you won't have to isolate in either direction and the costs of tests becomes negligible then overseas travel will become a realistic option. So when local vaccination programmes have reached appropriate levels, and local case numbers are sufficiently low.
Is that really likely before the end of August?0 -
Erewash has gone from averaging about 2 to 30 per day - it's significant even though the daily numbers are not massive. Represents about 200 cases a week per 100,000 people which would be classed as pretty high.Stevo_666 said:
Depends on how many cases they are comparing it to. If it went from 1 case to 16...kingstongraham said:
In Erewash it is "cases up 16 fold in two weeks" to a genuinely quite high level, so it's worth paying attention to. Especially if you weren't vaccinated.Stevo_666 said:
I think we are in a situation where the figures for infections are sufficiently low that any outbreak of a reasonable size will cause a large percentage increase in a given area. It's a sign of how successful the vaccination programme has been, but clearly could cause undue concern when news headlines of 'cases doubling in random town' show up.DeVlaeminck said:I don't know of any but Erewash is a an area of small towns, fairly urban as it's between two cities and some of it is really Nottm suburbia.
Its mostly white middle England I can't see the take up rates being low at all.
Edit - my wife who works in public health locally tells me it's down to an outbreak at one secondary school .
There will always be events like this as vaccines are not 100% effective and there are those who are not yet (and some who never will, be) vaccinated. However the numbers and severity will be much less than if this had happened last year.
Bolton from about 20 a day to about 100 a day. Not going to stop me doing anything because I'm not in those areas, but it's worth paying attention to. If I was anywhere near there and not vaccinated, it would change my behaviour.
In my very local area, it's basically no cases for weeks, so all fine.0 -
OK.kingstongraham said:
Erewash has gone from averaging about 2 to 30 per day - it's significant even though the daily numbers are not massive. Represents about 200 cases a week per 100,000 people which would be classed as pretty high.Stevo_666 said:
Depends on how many cases they are comparing it to. If it went from 1 case to 16...kingstongraham said:
In Erewash it is "cases up 16 fold in two weeks" to a genuinely quite high level, so it's worth paying attention to. Especially if you weren't vaccinated.Stevo_666 said:
I think we are in a situation where the figures for infections are sufficiently low that any outbreak of a reasonable size will cause a large percentage increase in a given area. It's a sign of how successful the vaccination programme has been, but clearly could cause undue concern when news headlines of 'cases doubling in random town' show up.DeVlaeminck said:I don't know of any but Erewash is a an area of small towns, fairly urban as it's between two cities and some of it is really Nottm suburbia.
Its mostly white middle England I can't see the take up rates being low at all.
Edit - my wife who works in public health locally tells me it's down to an outbreak at one secondary school .
There will always be events like this as vaccines are not 100% effective and there are those who are not yet (and some who never will, be) vaccinated. However the numbers and severity will be much less than if this had happened last year.
Bolton from about 20 a day to about 100 a day. Not going to stop me doing anything because I'm not in those areas, but it's worth paying attention to. If I was anywhere near there and not vaccinated, it would change my behaviour.
In my very local area, it's basically no cases for weeks, so all fine.
As you've quite rightly said before, if you've had both jabs plus the 2-3 weeks to let the last one take effect, then carry on. There are other risks in life apart from this."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Simple maths should tell you that is not going to happenrick_chasey said:What is currently getting on my radar is that most nations I want to go to will likely require both jabs to have happened to travel which means I will likely miss the summer season entirely.
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Yes, you need the first by 17th May to get a holiday the last week in August. (11 weeks between doses and 3 weeks for it to be fully active.)surrey_commuter said:
Simple maths should tell you that is not going to happenrick_chasey said:What is currently getting on my radar is that most nations I want to go to will likely require both jabs to have happened to travel which means I will likely miss the summer season entirely.
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A number of travel firms are prepared to heavily subsidise the cost of the tests. (TUI offering the amber test requirement package for £50) My annual travel insurance now offers Covid cover for countries not on the FOA green list.Dorset_Boy said:
I think you've answered the question with your statement about needing the tests (expensive) and isolation (expensive), plus travel insurance is unlikely to cover you.blazing_saddles said:
Besides having two jabs, several tests and a spell in isolation, what do you think needs to happen before summer holidays can resume?Dorset_Boy said:
Were you seriously expecting to go abroad this summer? Even if you'd had both jabs?rick_chasey said:What is currently getting on my radar is that most nations I want to go to will likely require both jabs to have happened to travel which means I will likely miss the summer season entirely.
Or don't you think they will return?
When you won't have to isolate in either direction and the costs of tests becomes negligible then overseas travel will become a realistic option. So when local vaccination programmes have reached appropriate levels, and local case numbers are sufficiently low.
Is that really likely before the end of August?
I think it's the required isolation that's the big hurdle.
Now, on the subject of vaccination levels, fanfare please.
"Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.0 -
Now do the same calculation for doing the first and third lockdown 2 weeks sooner.Dorset_Boy said:Not a bad result from the vaccination programme, 11,700 over 60s alive that would otherwise have died, and 33,000 fewer hospital admissions:
https://bbc.co.uk/news/health-571024220 -
Sure, why not?Dorset_Boy said:
Were you seriously expecting to go abroad this summer? Even if you'd had both jabs?rick_chasey said:What is currently getting on my radar is that most nations I want to go to will likely require both jabs to have happened to travel which means I will likely miss the summer season entirely.
That is exactly what my parents are doing.0 -
Can't believe there's only ~2.5 hours left until Boris and Whitty roll out and we don't appear to know what they are going to tell us...
Where's our inside source that makes the actual briefings useless?================
2020 Voodoo Marasa
2017 Cube Attain GTC Pro Disc 2016
2016 Voodoo Wazoo0 -
What I would like to know is of the people who have died with Covid
What age are they were they vaccinated why have they died. Is the vaccine working or not. This madness needs to end.1 -
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/30/figures-on-covid-deaths-post-jab-show-vaccines-success-scientists-sayilovegrace said:What I would like to know is of the people who have died with Covid
What age are they were they vaccinated why have they died. Is the vaccine working or not. This madness needs to end.
"A total of 526 patients out of 52,000 (1%) had been vaccinated more than three weeks before they developed Covid symptoms and were hospitalised. Of those, 113 died. Most of them (97) were in the two highest risk categories, so frail, elderly or otherwise highly vulnerable."
Vaccines work.0
