The big Coronavirus thread
Comments
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Exactly so: my hunch would be that the early as-many-first-jabs-as-possible drive is what helped break the chains of transmissions (along with schools being shut), and given the time lag for deaths after illness (America got 30% vaccinated about six weeks later than the UK, ditto 40%), that's why the big disparity now.pangolin said:I don't think you can look at the current ~7% in isolation, it's the long period of being 10-15% ahead that adds up in terms of effect.
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I think it is important to analyse levels of vaccination by age. Doing lots of 20 year olds whilst a significant portion of 80 year olds haven't been done will lead to more deaths.surrey_commuter said:briantrumpet said:surrey_commuter said:
The interesting thing on that graph is the USA as they are on a par with us for jabs and have no lockdown.briantrumpet said:rick_chasey said:No corona deaths in the UK today
It's still a stunning gap between the UK and most other places, and not shrinking very much.
They are still behind on total number of people with at least one jab (and were well behind for quite some time), and are starting to reach vaccine-resistant parts of the population, I gather. The blinder that the UK played was getting first jabs out as quickly as possible to as many people as possible: I suspect the figures now are the result of that, to a large degree.
Surely circa 7% extra vaccinated can not make that much difference?briantrumpet said:surrey_commuter said:
The interesting thing on that graph is the USA as they are on a par with us for jabs and have no lockdown.briantrumpet said:rick_chasey said:No corona deaths in the UK today
It's still a stunning gap between the UK and most other places, and not shrinking very much.
They are still behind on total number of people with at least one jab (and were well behind for quite some time), and are starting to reach vaccine-resistant parts of the population, I gather. The blinder that the UK played was getting first jabs out as quickly as possible to as many people as possible: I suspect the figures now are the result of that, to a large degree.
What weight would you give to their vaccines being more effective and the greater number of fully dosed people?
To me it is a warning to the open up brigade and time to have a discussion about the acceptable level of deaths0 -
8 out of 10 over 65s have had at least one jab in the USA. Considering the level of vaccine hesitancy and how that maps to partisanship, combined with the demographics of Republican support, that's a great result.0
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I get all of the points about a direct comparison between US and UK but does nobody think that the original chart gives us an idea of where our covid deaths would be if we fully opened up now.
FWIW I think that approx 50 deaths a day on a slow steady decline would be acceptable trade off for being fully open.0 -
What part of the graph in Brians post do you think tells you otherwise?rick_chasey said:
Is this a joke?Stevo_666 said:
We are doing stormingly well.briantrumpet said:rick_chasey said:No corona deaths in the UK today
It's still a stunning gap between the UK and most other places, and not shrinking very much."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Obviously it has to be viewed in the context of other graphs.Stevo_666 said:
What part of the graph in Brians post do you think tells you otherwise?rick_chasey said:
Is this a joke?Stevo_666 said:
We are doing stormingly well.briantrumpet said:rick_chasey said:No corona deaths in the UK today
It's still a stunning gap between the UK and most other places, and not shrinking very much.
- Genesis Croix de Fer
- Dolan Tuono0 -
I think the comparison between us and the US is too tenuous to give us an idea of where we would/will be. Not to say I know what will happen here, but I would hope we really are past the herd immunity point at least for all the current variants, and numbers will stay lowish.surrey_commuter said:I get all of the points about a direct comparison between US and UK but does nobody think that the original chart gives us an idea of where our covid deaths would be if we fully opened up now.
FWIW I think that approx 50 deaths a day on a slow steady decline would be acceptable trade off for being fully open.- Genesis Croix de Fer
- Dolan Tuono0 -
We are doing stormingly well over the last couple of months. We did astonishingly badly over the previous six months.0
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What part of 127,000 odd dead makes you think that is an appropriate comment? FFS.Stevo_666 said:
What part of the graph in Brians post do you think tells you otherwise?rick_chasey said:
Is this a joke?Stevo_666 said:
We are doing stormingly well.briantrumpet said:rick_chasey said:No corona deaths in the UK today
It's still a stunning gap between the UK and most other places, and not shrinking very much.
For a nation of the UK's size, that is appalling, and compared to many many many other nations in the world, it is quite shocking, especially given its riches and health system.
So no, it's not doing "stormingly well". It is vaccinating people at a very fast rate. That is not the same.
You need to stop doing Britain down with low expectations and hold it to the high standards that it deserves.0 -
How does that compare to the UK? Isn't the UK something like 95%?kingstongraham said:8 out of 10 over 65s have had at least one jab in the USA. Considering the level of vaccine hesitancy and how that maps to partisanship, combined with the demographics of Republican support, that's a great result.
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Yes, 95%+TheBigBean said:
How does that compare to the UK? Isn't the UK something like 95%?kingstongraham said:8 out of 10 over 65s have had at least one jab in the USA. Considering the level of vaccine hesitancy and how that maps to partisanship, combined with the demographics of Republican support, that's a great result.
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So whilst 80% is in the good effort category, it does still leave a decent chunk of people exposed if the virus is circulating. All else equal this gap should show up in the stats.kingstongraham said:
Yes, 95%+TheBigBean said:
How does that compare to the UK? Isn't the UK something like 95%?kingstongraham said:8 out of 10 over 65s have had at least one jab in the USA. Considering the level of vaccine hesitancy and how that maps to partisanship, combined with the demographics of Republican support, that's a great result.
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Yes - I can't help thinking that if there's a vaccine that works and you have been offered it and choose not to take it, that's your choice. The rest of us don't have to wait - it's different if there still isn't enough vaccine for everyone. It's a shame that they are already seeing reduced demand over there, and Fox News seems to bear some responsibility for it.TheBigBean said:
So whilst 80% is in the good effort category, it does still leave a decent chunk of people exposed if the virus is circulating. All else equal this gap should show up in the stats.kingstongraham said:
Yes, 95%+TheBigBean said:
How does that compare to the UK? Isn't the UK something like 95%?kingstongraham said:8 out of 10 over 65s have had at least one jab in the USA. Considering the level of vaccine hesitancy and how that maps to partisanship, combined with the demographics of Republican support, that's a great result.
I also think our good position is partly a byproduct of us being in such a terrible state across all regions when they first became available - practically everyone wants one to make this shit go away.0 -
Still no vaccines for 39 year olds in GB, so there is some way to go before it is a matter of choice for all, but then yes, it should become like any other vaccine.kingstongraham said:
Yes - I can't help thinking that if there's a vaccine that works and you have been offered it and choose not to take it, that's your choice. The rest of us don't have to wait - it's different if there still isn't enough vaccine for everyone. It's a shame that they are already seeing reduced demand over there, and Fox News seems to bear some responsibility for it.TheBigBean said:
So whilst 80% is in the good effort category, it does still leave a decent chunk of people exposed if the virus is circulating. All else equal this gap should show up in the stats.kingstongraham said:
Yes, 95%+TheBigBean said:
How does that compare to the UK? Isn't the UK something like 95%?kingstongraham said:8 out of 10 over 65s have had at least one jab in the USA. Considering the level of vaccine hesitancy and how that maps to partisanship, combined with the demographics of Republican support, that's a great result.
I also think our good position is partly a byproduct of us being in such a terrible state across all regions when they first became available - practically everyone wants one to make this censored go away.
On the second point, I think the UK has historically had a high uptake of vaccines, so I don't think it is simply a byproduct of lockdowns and deaths. I've had loads of vaccines, and whilst I'm hardly the obvious target for the anti-vaccination group, I've never really met anyone who put forward that thought. In contrast, when I say, I'm going on holiday to X, I will frequently get comments about the perceived danger. So overall, I think the UK is just culturally more accepting of vaccines.
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Yes, I was meaning in the USA, where supply is now exceeding demand by quite a lot in several states.TheBigBean said:
Still no vaccines for 39 year olds in GB, so there is some way to go before it is a matter of choice for all, but then yes, it should become like any other vaccine.kingstongraham said:
Yes - I can't help thinking that if there's a vaccine that works and you have been offered it and choose not to take it, that's your choice. The rest of us don't have to wait - it's different if there still isn't enough vaccine for everyone. It's a shame that they are already seeing reduced demand over there, and Fox News seems to bear some responsibility for it.TheBigBean said:
So whilst 80% is in the good effort category, it does still leave a decent chunk of people exposed if the virus is circulating. All else equal this gap should show up in the stats.kingstongraham said:
Yes, 95%+TheBigBean said:
How does that compare to the UK? Isn't the UK something like 95%?kingstongraham said:8 out of 10 over 65s have had at least one jab in the USA. Considering the level of vaccine hesitancy and how that maps to partisanship, combined with the demographics of Republican support, that's a great result.
I also think our good position is partly a byproduct of us being in such a terrible state across all regions when they first became available - practically everyone wants one to make this censored go away.
On the second point, I think the UK has historically had a high uptake of vaccines, so I don't think it is simply a byproduct of lockdowns and deaths. I've had loads of vaccines, and whilst I'm hardly the obvious target for the anti-vaccination group, I've never really met anyone who put forward that thought. In contrast, when I say, I'm going on holiday to X, I will frequently get comments about the perceived danger. So overall, I think the UK is just culturally more accepting of vaccines.
When we reach the same position, it's a personal choice to expose yourself to that risk - our irresponsible outrage merchants don't have the same reach, and thankfully are mostly onboard with the Tory vax.0 -
Everybody who wants one in USA has had one, I know know people in their 20s with a double dose. Would be interesting to see the stats by State as they all reckon the split is north/south rather than rep/demkingstongraham said:
Yes, I was meaning in the USA, where supply is now exceeding demand by quite a lot in several states.TheBigBean said:
Still no vaccines for 39 year olds in GB, so there is some way to go before it is a matter of choice for all, but then yes, it should become like any other vaccine.kingstongraham said:
Yes - I can't help thinking that if there's a vaccine that works and you have been offered it and choose not to take it, that's your choice. The rest of us don't have to wait - it's different if there still isn't enough vaccine for everyone. It's a shame that they are already seeing reduced demand over there, and Fox News seems to bear some responsibility for it.TheBigBean said:
So whilst 80% is in the good effort category, it does still leave a decent chunk of people exposed if the virus is circulating. All else equal this gap should show up in the stats.kingstongraham said:
Yes, 95%+TheBigBean said:
How does that compare to the UK? Isn't the UK something like 95%?kingstongraham said:8 out of 10 over 65s have had at least one jab in the USA. Considering the level of vaccine hesitancy and how that maps to partisanship, combined with the demographics of Republican support, that's a great result.
I also think our good position is partly a byproduct of us being in such a terrible state across all regions when they first became available - practically everyone wants one to make this censored go away.
On the second point, I think the UK has historically had a high uptake of vaccines, so I don't think it is simply a byproduct of lockdowns and deaths. I've had loads of vaccines, and whilst I'm hardly the obvious target for the anti-vaccination group, I've never really met anyone who put forward that thought. In contrast, when I say, I'm going on holiday to X, I will frequently get comments about the perceived danger. So overall, I think the UK is just culturally more accepting of vaccines.
When we reach the same position, it's a personal choice to expose yourself to that risk - our irresponsible outrage merchants don't have the same reach, and thankfully are mostly onboard with the Tory vax.0 -
Fairly sure I heard about a survey said biggest difference was Rep/Dem. Might have been on the 538 podcast, will try to find it.surrey_commuter said:
Everybody who wants one in USA has had one, I know know people in their 20s with a double dose. Would be interesting to see the stats by State as they all reckon the split is north/south rather than rep/demkingstongraham said:
Yes, I was meaning in the USA, where supply is now exceeding demand by quite a lot in several states.TheBigBean said:
Still no vaccines for 39 year olds in GB, so there is some way to go before it is a matter of choice for all, but then yes, it should become like any other vaccine.kingstongraham said:
Yes - I can't help thinking that if there's a vaccine that works and you have been offered it and choose not to take it, that's your choice. The rest of us don't have to wait - it's different if there still isn't enough vaccine for everyone. It's a shame that they are already seeing reduced demand over there, and Fox News seems to bear some responsibility for it.TheBigBean said:
So whilst 80% is in the good effort category, it does still leave a decent chunk of people exposed if the virus is circulating. All else equal this gap should show up in the stats.kingstongraham said:
Yes, 95%+TheBigBean said:
How does that compare to the UK? Isn't the UK something like 95%?kingstongraham said:8 out of 10 over 65s have had at least one jab in the USA. Considering the level of vaccine hesitancy and how that maps to partisanship, combined with the demographics of Republican support, that's a great result.
I also think our good position is partly a byproduct of us being in such a terrible state across all regions when they first became available - practically everyone wants one to make this censored go away.
On the second point, I think the UK has historically had a high uptake of vaccines, so I don't think it is simply a byproduct of lockdowns and deaths. I've had loads of vaccines, and whilst I'm hardly the obvious target for the anti-vaccination group, I've never really met anyone who put forward that thought. In contrast, when I say, I'm going on holiday to X, I will frequently get comments about the perceived danger. So overall, I think the UK is just culturally more accepting of vaccines.
When we reach the same position, it's a personal choice to expose yourself to that risk - our irresponsible outrage merchants don't have the same reach, and thankfully are mostly onboard with the Tory vax.0 -
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/politics-podcast-how-partisanship-explains-our-pandemic-behavior/
Pew research https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2021/03/05/growing-share-of-americans-say-they-plan-to-get-a-covid-19-vaccine--or-already-have/#rising-shares-in-u-s-plan-to-get-a-covid-19-vaccine-or-have-already-received-at-least-one-vaccine-dose
83% of Dems, 56% of Reps when surveyed in February. 56% was the lowest of any demographic split.0 -
Very relieved this didn't somehow become a party issue over herekingstongraham said:https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/politics-podcast-how-partisanship-explains-our-pandemic-behavior/
Pew research https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2021/03/05/growing-share-of-americans-say-they-plan-to-get-a-covid-19-vaccine--or-already-have/#rising-shares-in-u-s-plan-to-get-a-covid-19-vaccine-or-have-already-received-at-least-one-vaccine-dose
83% of Dems, 56% of Reps when surveyed in February. 56% was the lowest of any demographic split.- Genesis Croix de Fer
- Dolan Tuono0 -
I would have to check what they mean by "south" as if it includes cowboy country it might be the same thingkingstongraham said:
Fairly sure I heard about a survey said biggest difference was Rep/Dem. Might have been on the 538 podcast, will try to find it.surrey_commuter said:
Everybody who wants one in USA has had one, I know know people in their 20s with a double dose. Would be interesting to see the stats by State as they all reckon the split is north/south rather than rep/demkingstongraham said:
Yes, I was meaning in the USA, where supply is now exceeding demand by quite a lot in several states.TheBigBean said:
Still no vaccines for 39 year olds in GB, so there is some way to go before it is a matter of choice for all, but then yes, it should become like any other vaccine.kingstongraham said:
Yes - I can't help thinking that if there's a vaccine that works and you have been offered it and choose not to take it, that's your choice. The rest of us don't have to wait - it's different if there still isn't enough vaccine for everyone. It's a shame that they are already seeing reduced demand over there, and Fox News seems to bear some responsibility for it.TheBigBean said:
So whilst 80% is in the good effort category, it does still leave a decent chunk of people exposed if the virus is circulating. All else equal this gap should show up in the stats.kingstongraham said:
Yes, 95%+TheBigBean said:
How does that compare to the UK? Isn't the UK something like 95%?kingstongraham said:8 out of 10 over 65s have had at least one jab in the USA. Considering the level of vaccine hesitancy and how that maps to partisanship, combined with the demographics of Republican support, that's a great result.
I also think our good position is partly a byproduct of us being in such a terrible state across all regions when they first became available - practically everyone wants one to make this censored go away.
On the second point, I think the UK has historically had a high uptake of vaccines, so I don't think it is simply a byproduct of lockdowns and deaths. I've had loads of vaccines, and whilst I'm hardly the obvious target for the anti-vaccination group, I've never really met anyone who put forward that thought. In contrast, when I say, I'm going on holiday to X, I will frequently get comments about the perceived danger. So overall, I think the UK is just culturally more accepting of vaccines.
When we reach the same position, it's a personal choice to expose yourself to that risk - our irresponsible outrage merchants don't have the same reach, and thankfully are mostly onboard with the Tory vax.0 -
BBC were suggesting last night that the US will have 300 million spare vaccines by early July and were discussing what they should be doing with them.0
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With regards to the UK, that's because the supply of vaccines has slowed though right? If the supply was there, we would be vaccinating at a higher rate.ddraver said:Holiday destinations catching up...
Those without kids may want to hang on for an Indian Summer break...0 -
ddraver said:
Holiday destinations catching up...
Those without kids may want to hang on for an Indian Summer break...
My worry is that they will open up too much before enough people are done... they are still a long way behind. But I hope they do get it right.0 -
Well I am going for my first jab tomorrow. Had to cancel the national booked one as it gave me a first jab locally then the second 50 miles away. The local center opened up and with low populations it would seem that they are not far off doing 5 year age gaps in a week or a couple of days.0
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Context, my dear boy. I am commenting on that graph which starts from March. As I've said before an effective vaccine programme is the most important thing to get right and the graph shows that we are. In your desperation to have a go at the nasty tories you've come up with the predictable Rick response.rick_chasey said:
What part of 127,000 odd dead makes you think that is an appropriate comment? FFS.Stevo_666 said:
What part of the graph in Brians post do you think tells you otherwise?rick_chasey said:
Is this a joke?Stevo_666 said:
We are doing stormingly well.briantrumpet said:rick_chasey said:No corona deaths in the UK today
It's still a stunning gap between the UK and most other places, and not shrinking very much.
For a nation of the UK's size, that is appalling, and compared to many many many other nations in the world, it is quite shocking, especially given its riches and health system.
So no, it's not doing "stormingly well". It is vaccinating people at a very fast rate. That is not the same.
You need to stop doing Britain down with low expectations and hold it to the high standards that it deserves.
However I appreciate the biting wit which even got a laugh from your pet poodle
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]1 -
No the most important thing to get right, in order of importance, is avoiding deaths and the economic cost.
Existentially what is the point of vaccines (which were the only real international effort in the pandemic)?0 -
Stevo, do you think the government got everything right in dealing with the pandemic?0
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Don't be ridiculous; he won't answer that.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0
