Energy thread

DeVlaeminck

It'll be interesting what people do cut back on. What is considered a luxury you can do without and what has become a necessity.

I could happily live without Netflix whereas my other half watches loads of it. WiFi seems like a necessity but is Premier League football? Do the dogs get Chappie instead of Hills or do we dump them at the RSPCA - I'm not doing that but some may not have the choice or I suppose may do it as a choice.

rick_chasey

I'd give up all TV subbies before I gave up Spotify.

shirley_basso

I could give up some of the TV subs but we're not in winter, yet, when we need them to entertain the kiddos

sungod

Wheelspinner said:

CBA to do any checking if discussed already, but curious just what impact the whole energy cost issue will have on things like....

- Social media and "free" internet pages, such as Facebook and even BikeRadar here for example. Can't be cheap to run the hardware for these sites, wherever they're hosted? Subscription model coming soon to a web page near you perhaps.
- Cryptocurrency. Famous for chewing vast amounts of power. Does it mean the value rockets as no more mining is affordable, or plummets?
- Amateur and club sports. So many of them rely on after work training and even competition, frequently under lights outdoors, but even indoor lighting costs (and air conditioning/heating) have to be significantly affected. Will that just all stop, either by decree from the Gov to save resource, or simply because nobody can afford it any longer? Unintended consequence - health impact (physical and mental) will be significant.

meta/facebook have their own datacentres, i'd think bikeradar just rents capacity from hosting providers, both are effectively advertising companies

bikeradar switching to paid subscription would lose users and ad-views, the forum is pretty dead anyway, simpler to just turn it off

meta makes huge profits, it can afford it, might even make more if people stay home and online

in both cases the boxes are likely to be in locations with access to lower cost energy (and cold water is attractive too, saves on cooling plant), large operators are likely to have hedged energy supplies to limit exposure in the short term - if there's no regulatory/performance need, you select cheap capacity which may be far away, not somewhere expensive

crypto mining sites chase low cost energy, they can rip up ad move if they need to, afaik most is in places that won't be affected by europe's gas price problems, even with the prohibition it seems it's still going on in china

i'd expect sports will be hit, switch to daylight hours only, maybe no showers! swimming pools will surely be in trouble

impact on uk business is likely to be severe, energy/salary/materials/transport costs going up, customers spending less

sigh

pblakeney

Pross said:

pblakeney said:

Wheelspinner said:

pblakeney said:

Wheelspinner said:

CBA to do any checking if discussed already, but curious just what impact the whole energy cost issue will have on things like....

Swimming pools and spas must be most likely to go down the tubes.

All that stuff. Gyms with treadmills/spin/step class machinery? Zwift? e-Sports in general.

I'd go the reverse. Hook them all up to generators. 😉

I know you're joking but I think gyms have looked at going down that route. It probably isn't efficient with things like treadmills that require power to use but with a spin bike there must be a fair amount of energy going to waste. 30 people in a class pumping out 150 watts each over an hour and 4 classes a day, it's not going to save the world but may as well use it (obviously comes with a cost for the equipment to allow it to connect to the system etc.).

I was joking (mostly) but... https://www.ecohome.net/guides/1192/60-minutes-on-this-bicycle-can-power-your-home-for-24-hours-or-maybe-not/

pblakeney

Pross said:

pblakeney said:

Wheelspinner said:

pblakeney said:

Wheelspinner said:

CBA to do any checking if discussed already, but curious just what impact the whole energy cost issue will have on things like....

Swimming pools and spas must be most likely to go down the tubes.

All that stuff. Gyms with treadmills/spin/step class machinery? Zwift? e-Sports in general.

I'd go the reverse. Hook them all up to generators. 😉

I know you're joking but I think gyms have looked at going down that route. It probably isn't efficient with things like treadmills that require power to use but with a spin bike there must be a fair amount of energy going to waste. 30 people in a class pumping out 150 watts each over an hour and 4 classes a day, it's not going to save the world but may as well use it (obviously comes with a cost for the equipment to allow it to connect to the system etc.).

I was joking (mostly) but marginal gains 😉 ... https://www.ecohome.net/guides/1192/60-minutes-on-this-bicycle-can-power-your-home-for-24-hours-or-maybe-not/

masjer

sungod said:

Wheelspinner said:

CBA to do any checking if discussed already, but curious just what impact the whole energy cost issue will have on things like....

- Social media and "free" internet pages, such as Facebook and even BikeRadar here for example. Can't be cheap to run the hardware for these sites, wherever they're hosted? Subscription model coming soon to a web page near you perhaps.
- Cryptocurrency. Famous for chewing vast amounts of power. Does it mean the value rockets as no more mining is affordable, or plummets?
- Amateur and club sports. So many of them rely on after work training and even competition, frequently under lights outdoors, but even indoor lighting costs (and air conditioning/heating) have to be significantly affected. Will that just all stop, either by decree from the Gov to save resource, or simply because nobody can afford it any longer? Unintended consequence - health impact (physical and mental) will be significant.

bikeradar switching to paid subscription would lose users and ad-views, the forum is pretty dead anyway, simpler to just turn it off

It's not dead yet, but it is spinning around in circles with its legs in the air.

HilaryAmin

rick_chasey said:

Stevo_666 said:

rick_chasey said:

I don’t think all the European governments will survive the winter.

Out of cycle removal of governments, growth of support and popularity for extremist parties and extremist solutions.

Hell even in the UK already there is a growing campaign for nationalisations and mass refusal to pay bills.

It’s winter so that helps keep people off the streets but I expect some countries to have significant civil unrest.

I think we’re going to see one genuine far right party take power in Western Europe by 2025.

By 2025 quite possibly, but that may well be for reasons other than purely the energy situation. France and Italy look to be heading that way in any event.

You are under estimating the energy crisis.

Not such the massive inflation and erosion of wealth for Europe.

The massive blow to industry and the economy.

It’s a double whammy.

If it’s a cold winter we’re properly f@cked.

Think as bad as Covid but instead of people being afraid to go out it makes sense for them to not be at home.

It is far worse than covid (other than on a personal level). Two of the most important economic ingredients have always been energy and steel. It used to be coal and steel.

Yes, here's to a very mild winter..

(I just bought a power pack - which is probably as much use as pissing into a storm, other than it'll keep the lights on. The novelty soon wears off when there is a power cut and generators are a PITA)

Stevo_666

masjer said:

sungod said:

Wheelspinner said:

CBA to do any checking if discussed already, but curious just what impact the whole energy cost issue will have on things like....

- Social media and "free" internet pages, such as Facebook and even BikeRadar here for example. Can't be cheap to run the hardware for these sites, wherever they're hosted? Subscription model coming soon to a web page near you perhaps.
- Cryptocurrency. Famous for chewing vast amounts of power. Does it mean the value rockets as no more mining is affordable, or plummets?
- Amateur and club sports. So many of them rely on after work training and even competition, frequently under lights outdoors, but even indoor lighting costs (and air conditioning/heating) have to be significantly affected. Will that just all stop, either by decree from the Gov to save resource, or simply because nobody can afford it any longer? Unintended consequence - health impact (physical and mental) will be significant.

bikeradar switching to paid subscription would lose users and ad-views, the forum is pretty dead anyway, simpler to just turn it off

It's not dead yet, but it is spinning around in circles with its legs in the air.

It's still going but there's a distinct lack of 'new blood'. A few threads are pretty dead but efforts from die hards to keep them on the front page, mind.

tailwindhome

sungod said:

Wheelspinner said:

CBA to do any checking if discussed already, but curious just what impact the whole energy cost issue will have on things like....

- Social media and "free" internet pages, such as Facebook and even BikeRadar here for example. Can't be cheap to run the hardware for these sites, wherever they're hosted? Subscription model coming soon to a web page near you perhaps.
- Cryptocurrency. Famous for chewing vast amounts of power. Does it mean the value rockets as no more mining is affordable, or plummets?
- Amateur and club sports. So many of them rely on after work training and even competition, frequently under lights outdoors, but even indoor lighting costs (and air conditioning/heating) have to be significantly affected. Will that just all stop, either by decree from the Gov to save resource, or simply because nobody can afford it any longer? Unintended consequence - health impact (physical and mental) will be significant.

meta/facebook have their own datacentres, i'd think bikeradar just rents capacity from hosting providers, both are effectively advertising companies

bikeradar switching to paid subscription would lose users and ad-views, the forum is pretty dead anyway, simpler to just turn it off

meta makes huge profits, it can afford it, might even make more if people stay home and online

in both cases the boxes are likely to be in locations with access to lower cost energy (and cold water is attractive too, saves on cooling plant), large operators are likely to have hedged energy supplies to limit exposure in the short term - if there's no regulatory/performance need, you select cheap capacity which may be far away, not somewhere expensive

crypto mining sites chase low cost energy, they can rip up ad move if they need to, afaik most is in places that won't be affected by europe's gas price problems, even with the prohibition it seems it's still going on in china

i'd expect sports will be hit, switch to daylight hours only, maybe no showers! swimming pools will surely be in trouble

impact on uk business is likely to be severe, energy/salary/materials/transport costs going up, customers spending less

sigh

14% of the electricity consumed in Ireland is by
datacentres

focuszing723

Interesting to hear even Cern are drawing up plans to shutdown/idle parts of their Cern type stuff to conserve energy. An organisation created off the backdrop of WWII to form a unified approach in Europe, directed at science.

rick_chasey

Not an immaterial number of forecasters and economists thinking this a European catastrophe in the making.

Lotta chat about this being the energy sector's "Lehman moment". Lotta pain in bound.

surrey_commuter

tailwindhome said:

sungod said:

Wheelspinner said:

CBA to do any checking if discussed already, but curious just what impact the whole energy cost issue will have on things like....

- Social media and "free" internet pages, such as Facebook and even BikeRadar here for example. Can't be cheap to run the hardware for these sites, wherever they're hosted? Subscription model coming soon to a web page near you perhaps.
- Cryptocurrency. Famous for chewing vast amounts of power. Does it mean the value rockets as no more mining is affordable, or plummets?
- Amateur and club sports. So many of them rely on after work training and even competition, frequently under lights outdoors, but even indoor lighting costs (and air conditioning/heating) have to be significantly affected. Will that just all stop, either by decree from the Gov to save resource, or simply because nobody can afford it any longer? Unintended consequence - health impact (physical and mental) will be significant.

meta/facebook have their own datacentres, i'd think bikeradar just rents capacity from hosting providers, both are effectively advertising companies

bikeradar switching to paid subscription would lose users and ad-views, the forum is pretty dead anyway, simpler to just turn it off

meta makes huge profits, it can afford it, might even make more if people stay home and online

in both cases the boxes are likely to be in locations with access to lower cost energy (and cold water is attractive too, saves on cooling plant), large operators are likely to have hedged energy supplies to limit exposure in the short term - if there's no regulatory/performance need, you select cheap capacity which may be far away, not somewhere expensive

crypto mining sites chase low cost energy, they can rip up ad move if they need to, afaik most is in places that won't be affected by europe's gas price problems, even with the prohibition it seems it's still going on in china

i'd expect sports will be hit, switch to daylight hours only, maybe no showers! swimming pools will surely be in trouble

impact on uk business is likely to be severe, energy/salary/materials/transport costs going up, customers spending less

sigh

14% of the electricity consumed in Ireland is by
datacentres

a big selling point for FDI is so much elec is from renewables so helps companies hit their net zero targets

Pross

rick_chasey said:

Not an immaterial number of forecasters and economists thinking this a European catastrophe in the making.

Lotta chat about this being the energy sector's "Lehman moment". Lotta pain in bound.

To be optimistic, like all those people who were talking about how people were going to improve their behaviour in the early days of Covid, this could be the kick up the arse that is needed to really get people / Governments to move to renewables.

pblakeney

Pross said:

rick_chasey said:

Not an immaterial number of forecasters and economists thinking this a European catastrophe in the making.

Lotta chat about this being the energy sector's "Lehman moment". Lotta pain in bound.

To be optimistic, like all those people who were talking about how people were going to improve their behaviour in the early days of Covid, this could be the kick up the censored that is needed to really get people / Governments to move to renewables.

Please remind me, how did that covid optimism work out?
I was most disappointed.

rick_chasey

It's more the economic collapse.

Pross

pblakeney said:

Pross said:

rick_chasey said:

Not an immaterial number of forecasters and economists thinking this a European catastrophe in the making.

Lotta chat about this being the energy sector's "Lehman moment". Lotta pain in bound.

To be optimistic, like all those people who were talking about how people were going to improve their behaviour in the early days of Covid, this could be the kick up the censored that is needed to really get people / Governments to move to renewables.

Please remind me, how did that covid optimism work out?
I was most disappointed.

Well exactly, I was too cynical to expect any different. If this doesn't force more focus onto weaning ourselves off fossil fuel I don't know what will though.

rick_chasey

About the US this time - BAML

https://twitter.com/robinwigg/status/1567564055996416000?s=46&t=m60ZqSnf5rUEKebodCiXzA

focuszing723

To continue the housing theme. Micheal Burry has sold all his holdings from his US stock portfolio barring one. He does keep on about shorting Telsa though, so clearly he's not all that and a sack of potatoes.
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/legend-michael-burry-sold-every-stock-he-owned-except-one

focuszing723

Looking on the bright side though.

pangolin

BAML?

rick_chasey

Bank of America Merrill Lynch

rick_chasey

Bank of America Merrill Lynch

rick_chasey

Really good podcast from the economist on the crisis

https://open.spotify.com/episode/281aEhkAAzyVdbb5Tjhi3D?si=WeuQ2SZyRhKFjvIzBFa6yg

Also explains how the price is derived, and chats to energy producers and more broadly discusses the best way to support people.

As ive been saying their conclusion is if it’s a warm or normal winter Europe won’t need blackouts but will if it’s cold.

seanoconn

May we’ll have been mentioned earlier in the thread and I may well be missing something but if the price cap of £2,500 comes into fruition, are you likely to save anything by being careful with your energy supply?

First.Aspect

seanoconn said:

May we’ll have been mentioned earlier in the thread and I may well be missing something but if the price cap of £2,500 comes into fruition, are you likely to save anything by being careful with your energy supply?

It's a unit price cap, so you'll still pay for what you use.

wallace_and_gromit

First.Aspect said:

seanoconn said:

May we’ll have been mentioned earlier in the thread and I may well be missing something but if the price cap of £2,500 comes into fruition, are you likely to save anything by being careful with your energy supply?

It's a unit price cap, so you'll still pay for what you use.

The "Capped at £2,500" angles come from media outlets giving figures for a typical household to put things in a more easily understood context. This is quite helpful as I'm not sure many people think in terms of 25p per kwh of electricity (or whatever the figure may be; I wouldn't claim to even know the units for mains gas) but not so helpful for those with atypically high usage as their annual bill will be higher than £2,500 even under the cap.

rick_chasey

Govt support or price caps don't address the underlying issue which is scarcity of gas.

So if you're not using the market price to signal people to use less, as you're capping the price (or giving equivalent support via other means), how do you make people use less?

rick_chasey

I hadn't realised the price paid for electricity is the marginal cost for the most expensive final powerplant needed to fill the energy order.

If i've got it right it goes like this:

eg. if 95% of energy is produced at $1 per unit, but the final 5% needed to fill the order can only be produced at $5 per unit, the price of the energy for the full lot is $5 per unit. The powerplant that produces at $10 per unit isn't needed, because the order is filled with the cheaper options.

Because the UK has lots of gas plants, it can't fill up the order without gas fuelled powerplants, ergo big prices all round.

Ironically, most of the cheaper renewables won't see the revenues for this because the way the market is structured they're pushed to lock into big forward contracts.

(this is all from the podcast above by the way).

blazing_saddles

rick_chasey said:

Govt support or price caps don't address the underlying issue which is scarcity of gas.

So if you're not using the market price to signal people to use less, as you're capping the price (or giving equivalent support via other means), how do you make people use less?

Judging from the lack of response to your various "global scale"posts, Rick, I think most folks are still far more concerned with their costs of keeping warm, this winter.

Even with a cap of around £2500, the poor are still going to be faced with either keeping the kids warm, or fed. Global shortages aren't going to mean much to the folks who can't afford to use it in the first place.
Not until they can't access the internet or steaming services, at least....