Energy thread

rick_chasey
rick_chasey Posts: 72,249
edited August 2022 in The cake stop
Big enough topic to split it out of Putin and government incompetence, though they are clearly causes.

I am of the view there will be material energy shortages and we will have some kind of blackout etc

This morning on bberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-08-26/european-energy-crisis-listening-to-electricity-traders-is-very-very-scary

Listening to European Electricity Traders Is Very, Very Scary

Keeping the lights on in Europe this winter may prove more difficult than governments are currently admitting.



Every week, the people who trade electricity in the UK get to quiz the managers of the national grid for an hour. The conference call, which anyone can monitor, offers an insight into what the men and women on the front line of the power market are worried about. Listening to them is getting scarier by the week — and suggests keeping the lights on this winter will be a lot more challenging than European governments are admitting.

Prices are worrying enough. British households were told on Friday that their power and gas bills will increase from Oct. 1 by 80%. The so-called energy price cap was set at £3,549 ($4,189) per year, up from £1,971 over the past six months and £1,277 during last winter.

But the industry’s teleconference suggests the problem is broader than just rising costs. Increasingly, the words “emergency” and “shortages” are being used, with participants focusing on when, rather than if, a crisis will hit. Imagine being able to overhear conversations between Wall Street executives and the Federal Reserve as the global financial crisis unfolded in 2008.

Here’s a question from last week’s session: “Are you war-gaming possible options for if/when cross-border trading collapses under security of supply pressures this winter?” And another: “Can we have a session where we talk through the emergency arrangements?” Another participant said that the forecast for demand-and-supply electricity balance showed “how bad the winter could be for anyone who can do the maths.” The same caller was blunt about the grid’s own predictions: “I don't think you believe what you've written, and nobody else does.”

One intervention was particularly revealing. “Based on where winter ‘22 products are trading, where does this position yourself with respect to securing power over the winter?” asked one participant. The background? In the forward market, UK power for December 2022 is fast approaching £1,000 per megawatt hour, up 50% from current prices. The implication? Power shortages.

Compare the tone with the British government’s insistence that there’s nothing to worry about. “Households, businesses and industry can be confident they will get the electricity and gas that they need over the winter,” Downing Street said earlier this week. “That’s because we have one of the most reliable and diverse energy systems in the world.”

The weekly call is officially known as the “ESO Operational Transparency Forum,” and allows market participants to query the managers of the so-called Electricity National Control Centre, the hub that moves power around the UK from generators to traders to consumers. The forum typically deals with obscure power-trading problems. But in recent weeks, attention has shifted to crisis management. Another example from earlier this month: “If a system-stress event is active in both gas and power, how do the electricity system operator and gas control center communicate? Which stress event takes priority?” What’s particularly worrying is how few of the disaster scenarios appear to have been planned for.

A key concern is what happens if European countries introduce beggar-thy-neighbor policies by shutting down cross-border electricity flows, as Norway has already said it’s considering. “Please, the market needs to understand more fully how interconnectors are to be used in periods of very high prices and potential generation shortfall,” one market participant said last week.

Another topic is how much consumption might drop if households and businesses can’t afford elevated electricity and gas prices. “What level of demand reduction, demand destruction, are you forecasting for the winter ahead from commercial industrial consumers as a price response?” was one recent example. Another repeated the request: “What demand destruction, if any, is included in your demand forecast for this winter for residential and industry?” The grid managers were unable to supply any numbers to the callers.

To be sure, the call should focus on potential troubles ahead — it exists to anticipate and solve problems. But having listened in on multiple occasions over the last few months, I have three takeaways. First, the looming power emergency is worse than many industry executives publicly acknowledge, and a lot more dangerous than the government admits. Second, high prices are a big problem, but security of supply is at risk, too. Third, time is running out to prepare before temperatures start to drop.

The manager of the Finnish grid, in a rare example of the kind of transparency that’s badly needed, told citizens earlier this week to prepare for shortages this winter. European governments have a duty to come clean with their voters about the magnitude of the coming crisis. Minimizing the scale of the problem or, worse, pretending there’s not an issue, won’t keep the power running this winter
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Comments

  • pangolin
    pangolin Posts: 6,283
    So stock up on candles, batteries, gas for camping stoves. Beyond that is there much the average punter can do?
    - Genesis Croix de Fer
    - Dolan Tuono
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,249
    pangolin said:

    So stock up on candles, batteries, gas for camping stoves. Beyond that is there much the average punter can do?

    Think about what you have in your freezer too.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,249
    It would be good to see some international coordination around it, as the traders have worked out: what happens to exports from places like Norway when they halt exports?

  • DeVlaeminck
    DeVlaeminck Posts: 8,719
    Might be a good time to stock up on candles and warm clothes.

    Quite scary really - a lot of people simply won't be able to afford the rising costs.

    [Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,249
    edited August 2022
    Worth pointing out that if the Fed keeps raising rates the BoE will have to follow as all energy trading happens in dollars, so if Sterling devalues too much vs dollar it’ll push up energy prices even higher.

    So we can expect that too.
  • I wouldn't put an order in for a new Canyon bike. They'll be in the shi77er for sure.
  • By some miracle I managed to secure a 12 month fixed rate deal back in April just as the rumblings of the power hikes were starting. At least it gives us a head start to save a bit before we get totally walloped in the spring.
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 25,602

    I wouldn't put an order in for a new Canyon bike. They'll be in the shi77er for sure.

    I won't be pre-ordering anything. In stock purchases only.
    Already have the candles, batteries and a BBQ. 😉
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,249
    At least our incoming prime minister when asked whether the to the president of France, on which the UK relies on for some energy imports, was a friend of foe, replied with “the jury is out”.

    Good to see the govt pushing international cooperation hard.
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 25,602
    Quick thought.
    Power bank chargers may be useful.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • pblakeney said:

    Quick thought.
    Power bank chargers may be useful.

    That's not a bad shout.
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 40,221
    Presumably it is more likely that any blackouts would be 'controlled' like I vaguely remember them being in the 70s. Expect a baby boom in late 2023 as people find they have nothing to do in the winter nights and need to keep warm!
  • focuszing723
    focuszing723 Posts: 7,193
    edited August 2022
    pangolin said:

    So stock up on candles, batteries, gas for camping stoves. Beyond that is there much the average punter can do?

    Some electric cars have the ability to plug in AC appliances/devices. With 40-100kw's that's a fair amount of power. Hell, you could run a 2kw electric heater.

  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 40,221
    We're probably going to be less badly off than many other parts of Europe though, the majority of the country is less likely to have harsh winters than large parts of Germany and other Central / Eastern / Northern European countries.
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 40,221

    pangolin said:

    So stock up on candles, batteries, gas for camping stoves. Beyond that is there much the average punter can do?

    Some electric cars have the ability to plug in AC appliances/devices. With 40-100kw's that's a fair amount of power. Hell, you could run a 2kw electric heater.

    Just get a few caravan type leisure batteries.
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 58,172
    Is there anything that you don't worry about Rick? That might warrant a thread of its own :)
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • focuszing723
    focuszing723 Posts: 7,193
    Pross said:

    pangolin said:

    So stock up on candles, batteries, gas for camping stoves. Beyond that is there much the average punter can do?

    Some electric cars have the ability to plug in AC appliances/devices. With 40-100kw's that's a fair amount of power. Hell, you could run a 2kw electric heater.

    Just get a few caravan type leisure batteries.
    You forgot the BMS, inverter and solar panels.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,249
    £550 a month on energy (which is expected) for an average household is only £150 off the average mortgage
  • focuszing723
    focuszing723 Posts: 7,193

    £550 a month on energy (which is expected) for an average household is only £150 off the average mortgage

    Meh, you've go negative equity to look forward to.
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 25,602

    pangolin said:

    So stock up on candles, batteries, gas for camping stoves. Beyond that is there much the average punter can do?

    Some electric cars have the ability to plug in AC appliances/devices. With 40-100kw's that's a fair amount of power. Hell, you could run a 2kw electric heater.

    There is a guy who reverse engineered things so he could use free car chargers to power his house.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 27,488
    I still can't get my head around why there is so little talk about insulating buildings properly. It's very possible to build so that no heating is required at all, and the government paying off the energy firms so that we can carry on burning what will be an even more limited resource just seems nuts.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,249
    rjsterry said:

    I still can't get my head around why there is so little talk about insulating buildings properly. It's very possible to build so that no heating is required at all, and the government paying off the energy firms so that we can carry on burning what will be an even more limited resource just seems nuts.

    As the Dutch would say “mustard after the mealtime”
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 40,221
    rjsterry said:

    I still can't get my head around why there is so little talk about insulating buildings properly. It's very possible to build so that no heating is required at all, and the government paying off the energy firms so that we can carry on burning what will be an even more limited resource just seems nuts.

    The problem is there would be a load of cowboy companies set up by Tory donors that would win the contracts and fail to deliver a proper job.
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 40,221

    £550 a month on energy (which is expected) for an average household is only £150 off the average mortgage

    Where has your £550 come from? The 'cap' (why do they insist on calling it that?) announced today equates to around £300 per month.
  • ugo.santalucia
    ugo.santalucia Posts: 28,182
    What I don't understand is why the balance between going bust and making outrageous profits has to be so thin... surely the price of energy could be a bit lower and profits could reflect that... I don't know how much difference would it make to the bills, but it would be the decent thing to do... supermarkets try to do that, and so should the energy firms... there should be an investigation into what seems to me a cartel
    left the forum March 2023
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,249
    Pross said:

    £550 a month on energy (which is expected) for an average household is only £150 off the average mortgage

    Where has your £550 come from? The 'cap' (why do they insist on calling it that?) announced today equates to around £300 per month.
    Cornwall figures

  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 27,488
    Pross said:

    rjsterry said:

    I still can't get my head around why there is so little talk about insulating buildings properly. It's very possible to build so that no heating is required at all, and the government paying off the energy firms so that we can carry on burning what will be an even more limited resource just seems nuts.

    The problem is there would be a load of cowboy companies set up by Tory donors that would win the contracts and fail to deliver a proper job.
    Oh well let's not bother then.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • focuszing723
    focuszing723 Posts: 7,193
    rjsterry said:

    Pross said:

    rjsterry said:

    I still can't get my head around why there is so little talk about insulating buildings properly. It's very possible to build so that no heating is required at all, and the government paying off the energy firms so that we can carry on burning what will be an even more limited resource just seems nuts.

    The problem is there would be a load of cowboy companies set up by Tory donors that would win the contracts and fail to deliver a proper job.
    Oh well let's not bother then.
    I don't think it's easy though is it? Ventilation, windows facing the correct direction (which you had a crack at me for). Also, how much does it cost?

    Another thing, why haven't you converted your own house?
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 27,488

    rjsterry said:

    I still can't get my head around why there is so little talk about insulating buildings properly. It's very possible to build so that no heating is required at all, and the gyovernment paying off the energy firms so that we can carry on burning what will be an even more limited resource just seems nuts.

    As the Dutch would say “ mustard after the mealtime”
    I mean if we can't address energy wastage in an energy crisis we really are f***ed. People live in buildings they can't afford to heat >> make it so they don't need to heat them. Or cool them.

    I mean we managed to stop s***ting in pots and having a coal fire in every room.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • focuszing723
    focuszing723 Posts: 7,193
    edited August 2022
    I'm damn sure you won't have, it's not easy and the cost.