Ineos Grenadiers

pblakeney

The Sky era ended 4 years ago.

kingstongraham

They still only care about other races because they can't win that one.

redvision

Tbh I think the criticism of Ineos is harsh. They may have the biggest budget but we see in multiple other sports that money doesn't always buy success.

We can't forget that when Ineos (sky) began their journey they developed a squad around up and coming youngsters who would grow into a world leading squad, with a couple of older heads who could lead them. As soon as success started riders wanted rewarding and all of a sudden the cost of maintaining and refreshing the squad went up a notch.

I think JV share so many similarities to the early dominant sky years, with vingegaard simply miles ahead of anyone else bar pogacar (like froome was), and a supporting cast which are exceptional in their own right (particularly Wout and roglic). It's no wonder as these riders have developed and had success the team budget has had to increase significantly.

The only criticism I think you can throw at Ineos is their recent recruitment. But then I just don't see who stands out as someone who can realistically compete with vingegaard and pogacar. So they've resorted to gambling on potential and older legs. On occasion this has worked but in reality, if pog and vingegaard are both healthy then it would take something spectacular to beat them at the tour.

I can see JV being in exactly the same position (Ineos are currently in) in 5 or 10 years though, when no doubt another team will have the next vingegaard or pog, and everyone else is trying to find an answer.

DeVlaeminck

I'm not sure it's that harsh. As far as GC riders go they don't have any of the top 4 and their best 1 day rider is Pidcock who is really a second tier rider.

If those budget figures are true on a sport where athlete performance is pretty easy to measure you have to wonder how they've got into that position.

redvision

It's not easy to measure though. That's the thing. You can measure an athletes current performance but can only compare to their past. Ineos chose to gamble on the likes of Bernal, who showed huge potential but there was no guarantee his progress and development would ever reach the levels we're now seeing from vingegaard and pogacar. But then I don't think JV expected vingegaard to outclass roglic like he has, and the same goes for UAE - they might have had big hopes for pog but they couldn't guarantee he would reach such heights.

This is the gamble teams take.

stage_hunter

redvision said:

It's not easy to measure though. That's the thing. You can measure an athletes current performance but can only compare to their past. Ineos chose to gamble on the likes of Bernal, who showed huge potential but there was no guarantee his progress and development would ever reach the levels we're now seeing from vingegaard and pogacar. But then I don't think JV expected vingegaard to outclass roglic like he has, and the same goes for UAE - they might have had big hopes for pog but they couldn't guarantee he would reach such heights.

This is the gamble teams take.

The answer is that they probably have been a bit unlucky with Bernal. In reality though he emerged 5 years ago. The one that probably really disappointed Them was Sivakov.

My issue that there is very little evidence that they have been able to identify absolute top level talent from any country that will get them back to challenging at the TDF. They appear to be putting their eggs into Pidcock basket, while other teams are casting wider nets, with increasing success.

DeVlaeminck

redvision said:

It's not easy to measure though. That's the thing. You can measure an athletes current performance but can only compare to their past. Ineos chose to gamble on the likes of Bernal, who showed huge potential but there was no guarantee his progress and development would ever reach the levels we're now seeing from vingegaard and pogacar. But then I don't think JV expected vingegaard to outclass roglic like he has, and the same goes for UAE - they might have had big hopes for pog but they couldn't guarantee he would reach such heights.

This is the gamble teams take.

The comparison was made with other sports - I'd argue that relative to other sports measuring performance in cycling is easy.

redvision

How can any team know how a rider will develop?? How many times do we see performances by riders in the u23s or younger categories which lead to predictions of big things only for the rider never being able to reach those expectations??

The only data available is current and past data. That can be used for making predictions on development but can't guarantee it will materialise.

Same with every sport.

wallace_and_gromit

Sky got exceptionally lucky with Froome and maybe a bit lucky that two rather than one of their top GB trackie signings went on to win the Tour.

Take Froome out of the equation and they've historically generally underperformed relative to budget.

That's not to diss the Froome era; just to highlight that it wasn't wholesale talent development or talent-spotting bearing fruit. As has been commented above, there's likely a fair amount of luck involved that Vingo and Pog have developed to be quite as good as they are, particularly Vingo.

blazing_saddles

redvision said:

How can any team know how a rider will develop?? How many times do we see performances by riders in the u23s or younger categories which lead to predictions of big things only for the rider never being able to reach those expectations??

The only data available is current and past data. That can be used for making predictions on development but can't guarantee it will materialise.

Same with every sport.

Quite.

Having acquired Bernal from Gianni Savio's lot in 2018, they went back to him for Iván Sosa, the following year. Great things were expected of him, based upon his results at Androni in 2018. They were marginally better than Bernal's. (He'd won the Vuelta a Burgos, beating the likes of MAL, TGH..)

At Sky/Ineos he actually regressed, rather than developed. He's fared no better after moving to Movistar.

DeVlaeminck

redvision said:

How can any team know how a rider will develop?? How many times do we see performances by riders in the u23s or younger categories which lead to predictions of big things only for the rider never being able to reach those expectations??

The only data available is current and past data. That can be used for making predictions on development but can't guarantee it will materialise.

Same with every sport.

If your budget is massively bigger than anyone else's
then:
a) that should extend to having the best scouting and development system.

b) you shouldn't just be dependent on buying potential - you have the money to buy the finished article or riders very close to it.

The failure of Ineos to have any of - certainly the top 4 current riders - in either grand tours or classics can't be described as anything other than failure given the money they have.

Bernal's injury issues go back a long way - that he was their big hope isn't much of an excuse at the back end of 2023.

redvision

But how do they do that when the 2 who are simply light years ahead are both locked in to long term contracts with other (big budget) teams??

stage_hunter

redvision said:

But how do they do that when the 2 who are simply light years ahead are both locked in to long term contracts with other (big budget) teams??

They wont stay light years ahead and from what I can see, I am not convinced that their recruitment from juniors (which is where you find the ones that will challenge) is all that great at all. Other teams have overtaken them and disappeared into the distance. Up until this year, and probably 3 months ago, Id give them the benefit of the luck doubt.

norrinradd

I do think the big budget is a double edged sword. As soon as Ineos is mentioned any riders agent worth their salt (and cut) is going to add a zero on to the contract.

Also has their talent and scouting network expanded enough. Their history is very much a British Cycling turn a trakkie into a roadie plan.

Pross

They've got 3 of the last 6 baby Giro winners in the squad along with the 2017 Tour de l'Avenir winner and others than were on podiums so it's arguable that they are already trying the tactic of picking up the young up and coming riders. If you look at the 'big 3' Pogacar signed his deal prior to winning the 2018 Tour de l'Avenir ' no-one really saw Jonas coming and Remco was always going to Quickstep when he turned pro. Outside of those, Ayuso may have been one they'd like to have got but I suspect UAE are able to throw as much money as Ineos at anyone they really want. Who else is there?

If you look at the Baby Giro and Tour de l'Avenir winners there are a load that became very good GT riders but very few became the best in their generation whereas quite a few GT winners in the last decade or so didn't win either (or even place highly) so it isn't easy to identify talent.

That said, a development team might help as it would give them a chance to sign some of the riders earlier in their careers before someone else calls dibs on them. The GB team set up seemed to fulfil that role for Team Sky in the past.

roscoe

stage_hunter said:

redvision said:

It's not easy to measure though. That's the thing. You can measure an athletes current performance but can only compare to their past. Ineos chose to gamble on the likes of Bernal, who showed huge potential but there was no guarantee his progress and development would ever reach the levels we're now seeing from vingegaard and pogacar. But then I don't think JV expected vingegaard to outclass roglic like he has, and the same goes for UAE - they might have had big hopes for pog but they couldn't guarantee he would reach such heights.

This is the gamble teams take.

The answer is that they probably have been a bit unlucky with Bernal. In reality though he emerged 5 years ago. The one that probably really disappointed Them was Sivakov.

My issue that there is very little evidence that they have been able to identify absolute top level talent from any country that will get them back to challenging at the TDF. They appear to be putting their eggs into Pidcock basket, while other teams are casting wider nets, with increasing success.

I wouldn’t say they’re putting all their eggs in the Pidcock basket at all. What about Rodriguez, Sheffield and Plapp? We also need to see who they eventually sign for next season as well.

RichN95.

wallace_and_gromit said:

Take Froome out of the equation and they've historically generally underperformed relative to budget.

Take Froome out of the equation and they've still won five Grand Tours, which only Jumbo with six can match or better, over the same period.

Since 2010 it's

7 Froome
6 Jumbo
5 Rest of Sky/Ineos
4 Astana
3 Movistar, Saxo/Tinkoff

Pross

2012-2019 “Sky’s dominance is killing the sport. It’s so unfair, they’ve got so much money it’s financial doping (as well as actual doping obviously)

2023 “Ineos are rubbish, for all their money they should be able to buy success. They’re terrible value for money and other than one rider they were never really very good”

Gotta love the Internet.

roscoe

Tosatto leaving Ineos for Tudor at the end of the year.

takethehighroad

Maybe because his nickname sounds ruder in a British accent than in an Italian one

roscoe

I’m starting to think Uitderbroeks would be a better target for Ineos than Remco.

Needs some work on his TT but Dan Bingham and Top Ganna could help him there.

Pross

roscoe said:

I’m starting to think Uitderbroeks would be a better target for Ineos than Remco.

Needs some work on his TT but Dan Bingham and Top Ganna could help him there.

I wasn't aware of him before this race but have been impressed. He's only contracted for one more season at Bora as well so would be a realistic target. Stage 8 is the only climbing stage where he has lost significant time to anyone other than Jonas, not sure what happened on that day.

DeadCalm

Pross said:

roscoe said:

I’m starting to think Uitderbroeks would be a better target for Ineos than Remco.

Needs some work on his TT but Dan Bingham and Top Ganna could help him there.

I wasn't aware of him before this race but have been impressed. He's only contracted for one more season at Bora as well so would be a realistic target. Stage 8 is the only climbing stage where he has lost significant time to anyone other than Jonas, not sure what happened on that day.

Won l'Avenir last year ahead of a trio of JV riders! He's been hotly tipped for a while now, doing a Remco and going straight from the juniors to the WT. It's a good shout.

roscoe

Pross said:

roscoe said:

I’m starting to think Uitderbroeks would be a better target for Ineos than Remco.

Needs some work on his TT but Dan Bingham and Top Ganna could help him there.

I wasn't aware of him before this race but have been impressed. He's only contracted for one more season at Bora as well so would be a realistic target. Stage 8 is the only climbing stage where he has lost significant time to anyone other than Jonas, not sure what happened on that day.

He’s been suffering from a saddle sore since last week, that’s bound to be having an effect.

Looks a really good prospect

wallace_and_gromit

RichN95. said:

wallace_and_gromit said:

Take Froome out of the equation and they've historically generally underperformed relative to budget.

Take Froome out of the equation and they've still won five Grand Tours, which only Jumbo with six can match or better, over the same period.

Since 2010 it's

7 Froome
6 Jumbo
5 Rest of Sky/Ineos
4 Astana
3 Movistar, Saxo/Tinkoff

Froom's 7 would obviously have been won by someone else.

I wasn't suggesting that Sky didn't win. Just that they didn't win as much as their budget might suggest they should (rather like the current era, in fact) without Froome, who was a bit of a bolt from the blue, and not part of any jazzy recruitment and development policy. Brailsford claims to have spotted Froome's potential years before it emerged, but I think that's just retrofitting a Sky-friendly narrative to something of a "Black Swan" event.

wallace_and_gromit

Pross said:

2012-2019 “Sky’s dominance is killing the sport. It’s so unfair, they’ve got so much money it’s financial doping (as well as actual doping obviously)

2023 “Ineos are rubbish, for all their money they should be able to buy success. They’re terrible value for money and other than one rider they were never really very good”

Gotta love the Internet.

Worth clarifying that from my perspective, I'd subscribe to your second point, but was never bothered about Sky dominance. In fact, when it was Wiggo and G doing the dominating, I thoroughly enjoyed it!

It's fair to criticise a single person making both comments, but there's nothing particularly surprising that in periods of Sky dominance, the body of criticism is mainly of their dominance whilst in fallow periods, the criticism, from different people on the whole, is for being cr*p.

andyrac

https://www.rtbf.be/article/fusion-soudal-quick-step-et-ineos-grenadiers-on-fait-le-point-sur-la-rumeur-qui-agite-le-peloton-et-concerne-d-autres-equipes-11253691

Ineos-Movistar merger rumour......

Pross

That would be an odd one.

roscoe

andyrac said:

https://www.rtbf.be/article/fusion-soudal-quick-step-et-ineos-grenadiers-on-fait-le-point-sur-la-rumeur-qui-agite-le-peloton-et-concerne-d-autres-equipes-11253691

Ineos-Movistar merger rumour......

Wow!

gsk82

Why would ineos merge with movistar? What do they have to gain?