Ineos Grenadiers

phreak

rick_chasey said:

phreak said:

No_Ta_Doctor said:

phreak said:

rick_chasey said:

wallace_and_gromit said:

rick_chasey said:

roscoe said:

Other than Vingegaard and Pogacar, who else do we think is a potential TdF winner in the future?

Evenepoel is the real deal and he’s so young still.

Remco was 23 in January, which isn't actually all that young in elite sporting terms. Pog and Bernal had won three Tours between them before getting to 23.

He certainly has many talents and a lot of potential, but I think his status as a future TDF winner probably benefits from him never having ridden it to see how he compares against the established Big Dogs when they're going for it.

And historically, potential dominant Tour riders identified young tend to underperform - Ullrich and Bernal were going to dominate for a decade and Pog was supposedly unbeatable by mortal man.

Though to maintain balance, he has a 100% record of winning GTs that he finishes, which is non-trivially impressive.

He's the nearest to Vingers and Pog. And he can TT better than both, right?

Given he has hardly ridden stage races during his career, what are you basing that on? A win in a stage race that you yourself deride as for alsorans? That's literally the only stage race success he's ever had.

You mean GTs, right? He's won a shed load of stage races at all levels - and he's won more than 50% of those he's finished

No, I mean stage races that are a) not included in our censored small races thread, and b) that have at least one of Pog, JV, or Roglic in them. If you have those criteria, it's literally the Vuelta and that's it.

rick_chasey said:

phreak said:

Given he has hardly ridden stage races during his career, what are you basing that on? A win in a stage race that you yourself deride as for alsorans? That's literally the only stage race success he's ever had.

Firstly, he's 23.

He's already been on multiple podiums for the worlds TT, he won the Tour de Suisse TT (beating a pretty heavyweight TT crowd), won 2 Giro TTs (one whilst positive for covid..!), 1 Vuelta TT and the vuelta overall and that's before his deeply impressive one day palmares.

If you can find a candidate who is closer to Pog and JV for GTs, I'm all ears but he's your next best bet.

He might well be, but right now I'd say that's an absolutely huge if as he not only has never beaten Pog or JV in a stage race, but he's only actually raced against them in one once in his entire career. If you were being uncharitable you'd say he's avoiding them. It's not exactly the actions of the cocky young thing he's portrayed as.

Yeah, though that was what I meant about QS not knowing what to do with GC contenders.

Given his alleged ego, the fact that he hasn't ridden the Tour yet does suggest that he himself doesn't think he can contest it. If he seriously thought he could win then he'd have ridden it by now, team or not. Given QS defended the red jersey from stage 6 of the Vuelta last year doesn't suggest they're quite that bad a team.

rick_chasey

You don't think it's Patrick's ego at play here, not Remco's?

pblakeney

mididoctors said:

pblakeney said:

mididoctors said:

rick_chasey said:

Genuinely I think JV needs it hot and high as they are the two (relative) weaknesses of Pog and relatives strengths of JV.

July is likely hot ....high is a problem . Only one stage over Loze seems to have genuine altitude.. they better make good on it . The tourmalet is too early to count

Probably correct but is in contradiction with the opinion that the Giro was too back loaded.

Early in the stage too

Ah!
I've not looked at the route. I would presume that is is not flat after the Tourmalet though.

pblakeney

wallace_and_gromit said:

...Remco's Vuelta success means you wouldn't want to bet large sums against him if he was up against Pog and JV in the Tour, but you wouldn't want to bet much on him either.

A neat summary.

gsk82

My fear for Evenepoel is that he's a cycling version of Anthony Joshua. Rake in the money with loads of hype while hiding from the people who'll beat him and burst the balloon.

mididoctors

pblakeney said:

mididoctors said:

pblakeney said:

mididoctors said:

rick_chasey said:

Genuinely I think JV needs it hot and high as they are the two (relative) weaknesses of Pog and relatives strengths of JV.

July is likely hot ....high is a problem . Only one stage over Loze seems to have genuine altitude.. they better make good on it . The tourmalet is too early to count

Probably correct but is in contradiction with the opinion that the Giro was too back loaded.

Early in the stage too

Ah!
I've not looked at the route. I would presume that is is not flat after the Tourmalet though.

Cauterets climb 5 percenter ... I done it ..it's not hard relatively

pblakeney

mididoctors said:

pblakeney said:

mididoctors said:

pblakeney said:

mididoctors said:

rick_chasey said:

Genuinely I think JV needs it hot and high as they are the two (relative) weaknesses of Pog and relatives strengths of JV.

July is likely hot ....high is a problem . Only one stage over Loze seems to have genuine altitude.. they better make good on it . The tourmalet is too early to count

Probably correct but is in contradiction with the opinion that the Giro was too back loaded.

Early in the stage too

Ah!
I've not looked at the route. I would presume that is is not flat after the Tourmalet though.

Cauterets climb 5 percenter ... I done it ..it's not hard relatively

Not challenging but I look forward to the chase down the descent if someone goes for it. 😉 Probably a day for the breakaway though.

phreak

mididoctors said:

pblakeney said:

mididoctors said:

pblakeney said:

mididoctors said:

rick_chasey said:

Genuinely I think JV needs it hot and high as they are the two (relative) weaknesses of Pog and relatives strengths of JV.

July is likely hot ....high is a problem . Only one stage over Loze seems to have genuine altitude.. they better make good on it . The tourmalet is too early to count

Probably correct but is in contradiction with the opinion that the Giro was too back loaded.

Early in the stage too

Ah!
I've not looked at the route. I would presume that is is not flat after the Tourmalet though.

Cauterets climb 5 percenter ... I done it ..it's not hard relatively

The climb to Cauteret town is easy, but the bit to Cambassque has a few km over 10%. It's probably not going to be tough enough for more than a Roglic style sprint though.

No_Ta_Doctor

phreak said:

No_Ta_Doctor said:

phreak said:

rick_chasey said:

wallace_and_gromit said:

rick_chasey said:

roscoe said:

Other than Vingegaard and Pogacar, who else do we think is a potential TdF winner in the future?

Evenepoel is the real deal and he’s so young still.

Remco was 23 in January, which isn't actually all that young in elite sporting terms. Pog and Bernal had won three Tours between them before getting to 23.

He certainly has many talents and a lot of potential, but I think his status as a future TDF winner probably benefits from him never having ridden it to see how he compares against the established Big Dogs when they're going for it.

And historically, potential dominant Tour riders identified young tend to underperform - Ullrich and Bernal were going to dominate for a decade and Pog was supposedly unbeatable by mortal man.

Though to maintain balance, he has a 100% record of winning GTs that he finishes, which is non-trivially impressive.

He's the nearest to Vingers and Pog. And he can TT better than both, right?

Given he has hardly ridden stage races during his career, what are you basing that on? A win in a stage race that you yourself deride as for alsorans? That's literally the only stage race success he's ever had.

You mean GTs, right? He's won a shed load of stage races at all levels - and he's won more than 50% of those he's finished

No, I mean stage races that are a) not included in our censored small races thread, and b) that have at least one of Pog, JV, or Roglic in them. If you have those criteria, it's literally the Vuelta and that's it.

Ah, you probably should have said that to begin with then

Lanterne_Rogue

gsk82 said:

My fear for Evenepoel is that he's a cycling version of Anthony Joshua. Rake in the money with loads of hype while hiding from the people who'll beat him and burst the balloon.

The hype is long running, seemingly started well before the money started flowing, and is already backed with a GT win (slightly diminished in the public imagination because everybody's bored by the Vuelta).

He can't possibly be as good as the hype, especially amongst his Belgian fans, but that leaves a heck of a lot of space to slide back into whilst still accumulating a decent palmares.

RichN95.

Lanterne_Rogue said:

gsk82 said:

My fear for Evenepoel is that he's a cycling version of Anthony Joshua. Rake in the money with loads of hype while hiding from the people who'll beat him and burst the balloon.

The hype is long running, seemingly started well before the money started flowing, and is already backed with a GT win (slightly diminished in the public imagination because everybody's bored by the Vuelta).

He can't possibly be as good as the hype, especially amongst his Belgian fans, but that leaves a heck of a lot of space to slide back into whilst still accumulating a decent palmares.

And Anthony Joshua hasn't had a bad career, he has a World Champion, but it's clear by now that there are a few better than him.
But when he first beat Klitschko the media projected a career that wasn't likely to happen. The same is probably true with Evenepoel. Some are already putting asterisks on races he dropped out of.

Still, it's not as misguided as the hype for Emma Radacanu was.

m.r.m.

Honestly, winning the World Championship, 2 LBL's and a GC at his age pretty much justifies all the hype already. Especially when considering that he didn't crash out of the Giro (not for lack of trying 😉) or doesn't constantly get sick in GT's, but rather got Covid, which I feel is an extenuating circumstance; and would have won the Giro otherwise giving him 2 GT wins already.
From current riders only Pogacar can be considered more successful at about his age/years as a pro.

RichN95.

m.r.m. said:

Honestly, winning the World Championship, 2 LBL's and a GC at his age pretty much justifies all the hype already. Especially when considering that he didn't crash out of the Giro (not for lack of trying 😉) or doesn't constantly get sick in GT's, but rather got Covid, which I feel is an extenuating circumstance; and would have won the Giro otherwise giving him 2 GT wins already.
From current riders only Pogacar can be considered more successful at about his age/years as a pro.

No-one's doubting his talent. But some (not here) have already awarded him future palmares to match the greats. He'll win loads, but he'll fall sort of those people's expectations.
As for the Tour (and perhaps Giro), there are genuine questions about him in the high mountains - even when he won the Vuelta he lost time whenever it went over 1500m. And of course his team, hence his appearance in this thread.

m.r.m.

Yeah okay, that's all fair. Maybe it will finally be down to needing parcours with lots of ITT's for him to win. It does seem like the GT's seem to be fiddling with that depending on who they want to attend (which in some weird way seems ethically wrong).

RichN95.

m.r.m. said:

Yeah okay, that's all fair. Maybe it will finally be down to needing parcours with lots of ITT's for him to win. It does seem like the GT's seem to be fiddling with that depending on who they want to attend (which in some weird way seems ethically wrong).

That's the Giro though and their inferiority complex with the Tour. And increasingly with the Vuelta. Froome continually pitching up to the Vuelta probably didn't help, hence why they bunged him a sack of cash.

As for Evenepoel hype. There's many in the media that put him on a level with Pogacar and Vingegaard (even Roglic), with little to support it (he won a Vuelta against Mas and a teenager). Yet.
It's similar with the British media putting Andy Murray on the same level as the other three. On occasions he was, but usually not.

TheBigBean

RichN95. said:

Still, it's not as misguided as the hype for Emma Radacanu was.

Was it obvious that she was made of glass?

blazing_saddles

RichN95. said:

Still, it's not as misguided as the hype for Emma Radacanu was.

What do you mean was?
The BBC still fawn over her every excuse.
If ever there was a one hit wonder.....

gsk82

RichN95. said:

Lanterne_Rogue said:

gsk82 said:

My fear for Evenepoel is that he's a cycling version of Anthony Joshua. Rake in the money with loads of hype while hiding from the people who'll beat him and burst the balloon.

The hype is long running, seemingly started well before the money started flowing, and is already backed with a GT win (slightly diminished in the public imagination because everybody's bored by the Vuelta).

He can't possibly be as good as the hype, especially amongst his Belgian fans, but that leaves a heck of a lot of space to slide back into whilst still accumulating a decent palmares.

And Anthony Joshua hasn't had a bad career, he has a World Champion, but it's clear by now that there are a few better than him.
But when he first beat Klitschko the media projected a career that wasn't likely to happen. The same is probably true with Evenepoel. Some are already putting asterisks on races he dropped out of.

Still, it's not as misguided as the hype for Emma Radacanu was.

Emma Raducanu's problem is the tick logo on her chest. Thankfully that tends to stay out of cycling now.

wallace_and_gromit

blazing_saddles said:

RichN95. said:

Still, it's not as misguided as the hype for Emma Radacanu was.

What do you mean was?
The BBC still fawn over her every excuse.
If ever there was a one hit wonder.....

Better one hit than none. And who cares what the BBC thinks?

roscoe

In this year’s TdF guide, Ineos don’t even have a rider featured as a contender. That must be a first.

mididoctors

roscoe said:

In this year’s TdF guide, Ineos don’t even have a rider featured as a contender. That must be a first.

Closest analogue was when Bradley Wiggins crashed out ...EBH won a stage and saved them

pblakeney

roscoe said:

In this year’s TdF guide, Ineos don’t even have a rider featured as a contender. That must be a first.

Well, my prediction was that they weren't going to win anyway so the may as well go for stage wins. Makes sense from that point of view.

roscoe

Perhaps Egan has been sandbagging and will pull off a shock…………

daniel_b

roscoe said:

Perhaps Egan has been sandbagging and will pull off a shock…………

That would be awesome, but I really don't see it - maybe next year.
If he can't recreate his best form next year (And he would need it and then some to take on Pog), you would have thought both parties would start questioning his future in the sport.

wakemalcolm

Was Thomas Lofkvist ever promoted as a serious contender? His career just seemed to nosedive as soon as he joined up.

RichN95.

wakemalcolm said:

Was Thomas Lofkvist ever promoted as a serious contender? His career just seemed to nosedive as soon as he joined up.

He said overtraining at previous teams killed him

focuszing723

I've seen one in the wild now. It looks right agricultural, from the front doors back it looks a bit Hummer. Sixty odd grand before the obligatory options seems steep to rag around a farm.

At least the new Defender is a looker. Why are so many murdered out in black? The ones in the classic LandRover greens and blues look much better.

roscoe

daniel_b said:

roscoe said:

Perhaps Egan has been sandbagging and will pull off a shock…………

That would be awesome, but I really don't see it - maybe next year.
If he can't recreate his best form next year (And he would need it and then some to take on Pog), you would have thought both parties would start questioning his future in the sport.

Sadly, I think he’s really going to struggle to get anywhere near his previous standard. I hope I’m wrong.

I was thinking about what’s missing at Ineos and I don’t think they’ve really replaced the big engines in the team. Kiryenka and Porte come to mind. I know Wurf is there but he’s caught between cycling and triathlon. Dennis came in and looked decent but then left.

andyp

roscoe said:

daniel_b said:

roscoe said:

Perhaps Egan has been sandbagging and will pull off a shock…………

That would be awesome, but I really don't see it - maybe next year.
If he can't recreate his best form next year (And he would need it and then some to take on Pog), you would have thought both parties would start questioning his future in the sport.

Sadly, I think he’s really going to struggle to get anywhere near his previous standard. I hope I’m wrong.

I was thinking about what’s missing at Ineos and I don’t think they’ve really replaced the big engines in the team. Kiryenka and Porte come to mind. I know Wurf is there but he’s caught between cycling and triathlon. Dennis came in and looked decent but then left.

What about Turner and Sheffield? Both hugely talented riders who can do long turns on the front.

I think they've got far deeper problems than a lack of engines. They had a good Giro, despite losing Ganna and TGH, but there Tour squad is a) not obvious and b) clearly lacking a leader.

Taking Bernal would be an admission of failure, as it's means Martinez, who has been well below his best so far this season, isn't good enough for GC and their results at both the Dauphine and the Tour de Suisse suggest the whole Tour group isn't in good enough shape. In the past, they would be a major factor in both races and then win the Tour, this year they were nowhere, so unless they've changed how they prepare for the Tour, it suggests they'll be anonymous.

drhaggis

It's not up to Ineos standards, but I wouldn't bet against Carlos Rodriguez getting a Top 5 finish in the Tour (no, I can't see him on the podium either).