Ineos Grenadiers

andyp

m.r.m. said:

What some of you who are arguing against my points seem to be missing is that I'd be cutting a huge amount of riders in order to get out from under their rather huge salaries. Most of those riders are long in the tooth or I no longer believe their future worth will be greater than their past for the team.

Obviously then the roster will need to be refilled with capable domestiques in varying roles.

If I were managing Ineos and spending the kind of money they are, I'd require more bang for my buck than what is currently being achieved. Thomas getting second at the Giro against a single serious contender (grading on a scale obviously, but I don't consider Almeida a serious GC threat in terms of winning a GT against the proper tier 1 riders. He can certainly win against a weak field, but he is more Aru than Nibali) isn't success for me - not for the price Thomas is being paid. And that is the point.

I love Bernal, but I think his best days are behind him and while he may be able to get the odd win, the risk profile for his price is way too high with his entire injury history, not just the crash.

Thomas is on a pretty low basic wage, by his own account, with his wages supplemented by decent bonuses paid out for results in the major races.

I don't disagree that Ineos' wage bill is high and that the results the team are achieving are not at the level you'd expect. But the fundamental issue the squad has is not fixed by restructuring wages, in that they don't have a rider on their books who is capable of winning the Tour in a straight fight against the current top four GC contenders.

blazing_saddles

m.r.m. said:

What some of you who are arguing against my points seem to be missing is that I'd be cutting a huge amount of riders in order to get out from under their rather huge salaries. Most of those riders are long in the tooth or I no longer believe their future worth will be greater than their past for the team.

Obviously then the roster will need to be refilled with capable domestiques in varying roles.

If I were managing Ineos and spending the kind of money they are, I'd require more bang for my buck than what is currently being achieved. Thomas getting second at the Giro against a single serious contender (grading on a scale obviously, but I don't consider Almeida a serious GC threat in terms of winning a GT against the proper tier 1 riders. He can certainly win against a weak field, but he is more Aru than Nibali) isn't success for me - not for the price Thomas is being paid. And that is the point.

I love Bernal, but I think his best days are behind him and while he may be able to get the odd win, the risk profile for his price is way too high with his entire injury history, not just the crash.

Despite having a reputation for not getting round a complete course, Thomas has been on the podium in his last two Grand Tours, while riding against the top three stage races in the world.
He was the only rider who could live with Vingegaard and Pogacar in last year's Tour. So who, besides them and Roglic, are these serious contenders you speak of?

wallace_and_gromit

blazing_saddles said:

Despite having a reputation for not getting round a complete course, Thomas has been on the podium in his last two Grand Tours, while riding against the top three stage races in the world.
He was the only rider who could live with Vingegaard and Pogacar in last year's Tour. So who, besides them and Roglic, are these serious contenders you speak of?

Re Thomas, he's "podiumed" in four of the last five GTs he's completed, and he may have gone one step higher on the 2019 Tour podium had the course not been shortened mid-stage near the end of the race. (Though he likely wouldn't.)

In general though, there's just not enough genuine Grand Tour contenders to go round to make all three properly competitive at the highest level each year as the physiology required is so specialised. At the moment, there's only really Pog and JV that would attract serious betting money if there was just one GT scheduled for the year and everyone who was fit was riding.

Re whether Ineos's wage bill represents good value for money, I doubt Jim Ratcliffe cares overly much. The cycling team is a just a "play thing" / ego trip for him. He's worth at a very conservative estimate circa $20b, and even a 1% return on that each year is $200m, which would go a long way to bankrolling the entire Pro Tour for a year.

phreak

The only rider really out there is Remco, and before I threw huge money at him I'd want to see him actually challenge the likes of Pogacar in a stage race. In the few years they've raced at the top level, they've only competed against each other in one week long stage race, with Pogacar coming out comfortably on top. For a guy with Remco's bravado, that almost seems like he's avoiding him.

It's been a similar picture with Vingegaard, as since Jonas broke through in 2021, Remco has only raced against him in a stage race twice, with both races before Vingegaard won the Tour last year.

As a stage race rider at the elite level he's pretty untested imo.

rick_chasey

Do we think if WvA went on the sky diet he could compete for overall?

wallace_and_gromit

rick_chasey said:

Do we think if WvA went on the sky diet he could compete for overall?

I don't think so. He's just a bit too "sprinty" so will likely have sub-optimally many fast-twitch fibres.

That said, he's won just about everything else there is to win on the road (World Champs / OGs are maybe too much of a lottery to be worth the sole focus of his future career) so "Project Paris Podium" (or some such marketing hype) would be a good challenge. He's got nothing left to prove in general cycling terms after winning a mountain, TT and final bunch sprint in the 2021 Tour!

rick_chasey

My thinking is he is often one of the last men in the mountains as a domestique and can often finish top 10 in high mountain stages. He has the TT engine / the one hour effort engine, and he has the recovery levels required to perform in week 3.

wallace_and_gromit

My understanding (*) is that the key requirement for a victorious Grand Tour GT rider is to be able to recover more completely and more often than those who ultimately just fall short. Wout's fast twitch fibres will work against this, as however you pace yourself through a measured but almost full-on effort, if you've got a lot of fast twitch fibres then you'll produce more lactate than the "diesels". And over three weeks, that will compromise recovery just enough to be fatal for GC prospects.

There are always exceptions to the rule though with performance. In athletics, Mo Farah (**) had 10k endurance but 1500m finishing speed (and holds all the UK records from 1500m to the marathon bar the mile, which he rarely ran) which shouldn't really be possible.

(*) Pieced together over a few decades of extensive reading. I have no formal qualifications in the field, so I'm not claiming this to be the definitive story.

(**) We'll gloss over the Alberto Salazar connection here.

stage_hunter

rick_chasey said:

Do we think if WvA went on the sky diet he could compete for overall?

Not immediately, but over 2-3 years, yes. Clean up on bonuses, monster TTs, stick with it on climbs. It would depend on the route, and importantly how it was raced.

wallace_and_gromit

stage_hunter said:

rick_chasey said:

Do we think if WvA went on the sky diet he could compete for overall?

Not immediately, but over 2-3 years, yes. Clean up on bonuses, monster TTs, stick with it on climbs. It would depend on the route, and importantly how it was raced.

On reflection, if he was Italian, it would be a done deal. The Giro organisers could just re-open the 1984 "Project Moser" playbook!

mididoctors

rick_chasey said:

Do we think if WvA went on the sky diet he could compete for overall?

No. I just don't see it .

mididoctors

He needs a Roubaix and Ronde more

DeVlaeminck

It'd be good to find out. The balance of muscle fibres types is something that can be trained not all fibres are either/or - far from being into this stuff but it seems possible his cross background meant he developed towards more of a fast twitch athlete than he otherwise may have done. I can't see him wanting to use his career as an experiment to test that hypothesis though.

m.r.m.

WVA is probably a little bit too heavy even for the Ineos diet. Doubt it's worth risking his hall of fame career over trying to brute force him into something he just isn't.

No_Ta_Doctor

There are only 11 riders in the peloton who have won a GT, and half of them ride or have ridden for Sky/Ineos

m.r.m.

blazing_saddles said:

m.r.m. said:

What some of you who are arguing against my points seem to be missing is that I'd be cutting a huge amount of riders in order to get out from under their rather huge salaries. Most of those riders are long in the tooth or I no longer believe their future worth will be greater than their past for the team.

Obviously then the roster will need to be refilled with capable domestiques in varying roles.

If I were managing Ineos and spending the kind of money they are, I'd require more bang for my buck than what is currently being achieved. Thomas getting second at the Giro against a single serious contender (grading on a scale obviously, but I don't consider Almeida a serious GC threat in terms of winning a GT against the proper tier 1 riders. He can certainly win against a weak field, but he is more Aru than Nibali) isn't success for me - not for the price Thomas is being paid. And that is the point.

I love Bernal, but I think his best days are behind him and while he may be able to get the odd win, the risk profile for his price is way too high with his entire injury history, not just the crash.

Despite having a reputation for not getting round a complete course, Thomas has been on the podium in his last two Grand Tours, while riding against the top three stage races in the world.
He was the only rider who could live with Vingegaard and Pogacar in last year's Tour. So who, besides them and Roglic, are these serious contenders you speak of?

So with them in the race he comes third in a race of three. With Roglic in the race he comes 4 of 4. I'm not interested in paying for that while I appreciate him very much as a rider and even more as a person.

Actually if I'm being super nitpicky:

Tier 1 GC for me:
Pogacar

Tier 2:
Vingegaard, Remco, Roglic

Tier 3:
Bernal (injury risk otherwise 2)
Thomas
Gaudu
Simon Yates (possibly tier 4 due to getting sick risk)

Tier 4:
TGH
Hindley
Almeida
Ayuso (based on potential only)

Tier 5:
Carapaz
Pinot
Caruso

Tier 6:
Bardet
Barguil
Carthy

Tier 7:
Buchmann

I'm sure I'm forgetting plenty & I'm not trying to list every GC rider in the world. 😉

r0bh

Thomas in the same "tier" as Gaudu?

Is there another GT winner and multiple podium getter who has less respect than Thomas?

m.r.m.

It's not a life time achievement award. It's what do you expect from the rider at this very moment in time.

gethinceri

Yes, Gaudu = Thomas is hilarious.

pblakeney

gethinceri said:

Yes, Gaudu = Thomas is hilarious.

I'd drop Gaudu down then as Thomas currently is not their 1 or 2 as outlined above.
Tier 2 if the other 4 are all in tier 1.

wallace_and_gromit

m.r.m. said:

blazing_saddles said:

m.r.m. said:

What some of you who are arguing against my points seem to be missing is that I'd be cutting a huge amount of riders in order to get out from under their rather huge salaries. Most of those riders are long in the tooth or I no longer believe their future worth will be greater than their past for the team.

Obviously then the roster will need to be refilled with capable domestiques in varying roles.

If I were managing Ineos and spending the kind of money they are, I'd require more bang for my buck than what is currently being achieved. Thomas getting second at the Giro against a single serious contender (grading on a scale obviously, but I don't consider Almeida a serious GC threat in terms of winning a GT against the proper tier 1 riders. He can certainly win against a weak field, but he is more Aru than Nibali) isn't success for me - not for the price Thomas is being paid. And that is the point.

I love Bernal, but I think his best days are behind him and while he may be able to get the odd win, the risk profile for his price is way too high with his entire injury history, not just the crash.

Despite having a reputation for not getting round a complete course, Thomas has been on the podium in his last two Grand Tours, while riding against the top three stage races in the world.
He was the only rider who could live with Vingegaard and Pogacar in last year's Tour. So who, besides them and Roglic, are these serious contenders you speak of?

So with them in the race he comes third in a race of three. With Roglic in the race he comes 4 of 4. I'm not interested in paying for that while I appreciate him very much as a rider and even more as a person.

Actually if I'm being super nitpicky:

Tier 1 GC for me:
Pogacar

Tier 2:
Vingegaard, Remco, Roglic

Tier 3:
Bernal (injury risk otherwise 2)
Thomas
Gaudu
Simon Yates (possibly tier 4 due to getting sick risk)

Tier 4:
TGH
Hindley
Almeida
Ayuso (based on potential only)

Tier 5:
Carapaz
Pinot
Caruso

Tier 6:
Bardet
Barguil
Carthy

Tier 7:
Buchmann

I'm sure I'm forgetting plenty & I'm not trying to list every GC rider in the world. 😉

I get what you're trying to do here but Gaudu nukes the credibility of everything else.

mididoctors

m.r.m. said:

blazing_saddles said:

m.r.m. said:

What some of you who are arguing against my points seem to be missing is that I'd be cutting a huge amount of riders in order to get out from under their rather huge salaries. Most of those riders are long in the tooth or I no longer believe their future worth will be greater than their past for the team.

Obviously then the roster will need to be refilled with capable domestiques in varying roles.

If I were managing Ineos and spending the kind of money they are, I'd require more bang for my buck than what is currently being achieved. Thomas getting second at the Giro against a single serious contender (grading on a scale obviously, but I don't consider Almeida a serious GC threat in terms of winning a GT against the proper tier 1 riders. He can certainly win against a weak field, but he is more Aru than Nibali) isn't success for me - not for the price Thomas is being paid. And that is the point.

I love Bernal, but I think his best days are behind him and while he may be able to get the odd win, the risk profile for his price is way too high with his entire injury history, not just the crash.

Despite having a reputation for not getting round a complete course, Thomas has been on the podium in his last two Grand Tours, while riding against the top three stage races in the world.
He was the only rider who could live with Vingegaard and Pogacar in last year's Tour. So who, besides them and Roglic, are these serious contenders you speak of?

So with them in the race he comes third in a race of three. With Roglic in the race he comes 4 of 4. I'm not interested in paying for that while I appreciate him very much as a rider and even more as a person.

Actually if I'm being super nitpicky:

Tier 1 GC for me:
Pogacar

Tier 2:
Vingegaard, Remco, Roglic

Tier 3:
Bernal (injury risk otherwise 2)
Thomas
Gaudu
Simon Yates (possibly tier 4 due to getting sick risk)

Tier 4:
TGH
Hindley
Almeida
Ayuso (based on potential only)

Tier 5:
Carapaz
Pinot
Caruso

Tier 6:
Bardet
Barguil
Carthy

Tier 7:
Buchmann

I'm sure I'm forgetting plenty & I'm not trying to list every GC rider in the world. 😉

TGH I put in tier 2/3 with jai both have won one and TGH has a TT now

mididoctors

Gaudu is tier 4

mididoctors

It's a odd list tier 1 because despite agreeing with it I see pog in trouble over the Loze

blazing_saddles

m.r.m. said:

It's not a life time achievement award. It's what do you expect from the rider at this very moment in time.

Yet you have placed Evenepoel in the same league as Vingegaard and Roglic.
No question he’s an outstanding talent, but his record in GTs and WT stage races consists solely of one Vuelta win.
Besides that win are 2 DNFs at the Giro.
The sum total of his Palmares in WT stage races is just one podium in Catalunya.
Plus he’s not expected to ride another GT this season.

So maybe you need to re-calibrate your expectations of Remco at this very moment in time.

kingstongraham

Was anyone certain Roglic was going to beat Thomas going into the tt?

I can see the argument that you wouldn't want to sign him to a long contract but Thomas is demonstrably level with Rog at the moment

mididoctors

I love @m.r.m. posts

pblakeney

kingstongraham said:

Was anyone certain Roglic was going to beat Thomas going into the tt?

I can see the argument that you wouldn't want to sign him to a long contract but Thonas is demonstrably level with Rog at the moment

My PTP picks are proof that I did.

kingstongraham

pblakeney said:

kingstongraham said:

Was anyone certain Roglic was going to beat Thomas going into the tt?

I can see the argument that you wouldn't want to sign him to a long contract but Thonas is demonstrably level with Rog at the moment

My PTP picks are proof that I did.

If I check your picks over time will I find you are infallible?

m.r.m.

wallace_and_gromit said:

m.r.m. said:

blazing_saddles said:

m.r.m. said:

What some of you who are arguing against my points seem to be missing is that I'd be cutting a huge amount of riders in order to get out from under their rather huge salaries. Most of those riders are long in the tooth or I no longer believe their future worth will be greater than their past for the team.

Obviously then the roster will need to be refilled with capable domestiques in varying roles.

If I were managing Ineos and spending the kind of money they are, I'd require more bang for my buck than what is currently being achieved. Thomas getting second at the Giro against a single serious contender (grading on a scale obviously, but I don't consider Almeida a serious GC threat in terms of winning a GT against the proper tier 1 riders. He can certainly win against a weak field, but he is more Aru than Nibali) isn't success for me - not for the price Thomas is being paid. And that is the point.

I love Bernal, but I think his best days are behind him and while he may be able to get the odd win, the risk profile for his price is way too high with his entire injury history, not just the crash.

Despite having a reputation for not getting round a complete course, Thomas has been on the podium in his last two Grand Tours, while riding against the top three stage races in the world.
He was the only rider who could live with Vingegaard and Pogacar in last year's Tour. So who, besides them and Roglic, are these serious contenders you speak of?

So with them in the race he comes third in a race of three. With Roglic in the race he comes 4 of 4. I'm not interested in paying for that while I appreciate him very much as a rider and even more as a person.

Actually if I'm being super nitpicky:

Tier 1 GC for me:
Pogacar

Tier 2:
Vingegaard, Remco, Roglic

Tier 3:
Bernal (injury risk otherwise 2)
Thomas
Gaudu
Simon Yates (possibly tier 4 due to getting sick risk)

Tier 4:
TGH
Hindley
Almeida
Ayuso (based on potential only)

Tier 5:
Carapaz
Pinot
Caruso

Tier 6:
Bardet
Barguil
Carthy

Tier 7:
Buchmann

I'm sure I'm forgetting plenty & I'm not trying to list every GC rider in the world. 😉

I get what you're trying to do here but Gaudu nukes the credibility of everything else.

Ok I'm willing to concede the Gaudu point. It's not like I expect him to win, however he has been able to stick with Pogacar and Vingegaard at least somewhat this year; but in week long races and not GT's.
I have no issues dropping him down. 😊