Ineos Grenadiers

m.r.m.

blazing_saddles said:

m.r.m. said:

It's not a life time achievement award. It's what do you expect from the rider at this very moment in time.

Yet you have placed Evenepoel in the same league as Vingegaard and Roglic.
No question he’s an outstanding talent, but his record in GTs and WT stage races consists solely of one Vuelta win.
Besides that win are 2 DNFs at the Giro.
The sum total of his Palmares in WT stage races is just one podium in Catalunya.
Plus he’s not expected to ride another GT this season.

So maybe you need to re-calibrate your expectations of Remco at this very moment in time.

I think that is down to me thinking he would have won this Giro by over a minute without his Covid positive. But I see your point and mine regarding Remco does have the "if this hadn't happened" conceit which could be applied to Thomas multiple times as well.

We must factor age and potential in as well though (along with aforementioned salaries) since the point is building a team (for the future). Otherwise Ayuso shouldn't be on the list at all.

m.r.m.

kingstongraham said:

Was anyone certain Roglic was going to beat Thomas going into the tt?

I can see the argument that you wouldn't want to sign him to a long contract but Thomas is demonstrably level with Rog at the moment

I was 100% certain and picked him in PTP for the stage.

m.r.m.

A way of looking at the list is that no one in tier 3 beats Remco in tier 2 for example. I would never choose Thomas over Remco in a GT regardless of parcours.
And yes occasionally a lower tier rider beats a higher tier one. That is due to multiple factors outside of just rider ability and one of the core reasons to watch sport.

RichN95.

gethinceri said:

Yes, Gaudu = Thomas is hilarious.

He's also got Pinot = Caparaz

mrm must stand for Marc Ruddy Madiot

mididoctors

m.r.m. said:

A way of looking at the list is that no one in tier 3 beats Remco in tier 2 for example. I would never choose Thomas over Remco in a GT regardless of parcours.
And yes occasionally a lower tier rider beats a higher tier one. That is due to multiple factors outside of just rider ability and one of the core reasons to watch sport.

TGH would have won against remco is not a outlandish thought

kingstongraham

m.r.m. said:

kingstongraham said:

Was anyone certain Roglic was going to beat Thomas going into the tt?

I can see the argument that you wouldn't want to sign him to a long contract but Thomas is demonstrably level with Rog at the moment

I was 100% certain and picked him in PTP for the stage.

You also picked him for the 2020 TDF mountain TT.

wallace_and_gromit

m.r.m. said:

wallace_and_gromit said:

m.r.m. said:

blazing_saddles said:

m.r.m. said:

What some of you who are arguing against my points seem to be missing is that I'd be cutting a huge amount of riders in order to get out from under their rather huge salaries. Most of those riders are long in the tooth or I no longer believe their future worth will be greater than their past for the team.

Obviously then the roster will need to be refilled with capable domestiques in varying roles.

If I were managing Ineos and spending the kind of money they are, I'd require more bang for my buck than what is currently being achieved. Thomas getting second at the Giro against a single serious contender (grading on a scale obviously, but I don't consider Almeida a serious GC threat in terms of winning a GT against the proper tier 1 riders. He can certainly win against a weak field, but he is more Aru than Nibali) isn't success for me - not for the price Thomas is being paid. And that is the point.

I love Bernal, but I think his best days are behind him and while he may be able to get the odd win, the risk profile for his price is way too high with his entire injury history, not just the crash.

Despite having a reputation for not getting round a complete course, Thomas has been on the podium in his last two Grand Tours, while riding against the top three stage races in the world.
He was the only rider who could live with Vingegaard and Pogacar in last year's Tour. So who, besides them and Roglic, are these serious contenders you speak of?

So with them in the race he comes third in a race of three. With Roglic in the race he comes 4 of 4. I'm not interested in paying for that while I appreciate him very much as a rider and even more as a person.

Actually if I'm being super nitpicky:

Tier 1 GC for me:
Pogacar

Tier 2:
Vingegaard, Remco, Roglic

Tier 3:
Bernal (injury risk otherwise 2)
Thomas
Gaudu
Simon Yates (possibly tier 4 due to getting sick risk)

Tier 4:
TGH
Hindley
Almeida
Ayuso (based on potential only)

Tier 5:
Carapaz
Pinot
Caruso

Tier 6:
Bardet
Barguil
Carthy

Tier 7:
Buchmann

I'm sure I'm forgetting plenty & I'm not trying to list every GC rider in the world. 😉

I get what you're trying to do here but Gaudu nukes the credibility of everything else.

Ok I'm willing to concede the Gaudu point. It's not like I expect him to win, however he has been able to stick with Pogacar and Vingegaard at least somewhat this year; but in week long races and not GT's.
I have no issues dropping him down. 😊

Good move! I don't agree with every other allocation to tiers, but with this change, the ranking is certainly defensible. Though like all such selections, there are numerous such possibilities!

pblakeney

kingstongraham said:

pblakeney said:

kingstongraham said:

Was anyone certain Roglic was going to beat Thomas going into the tt?

I can see the argument that you wouldn't want to sign him to a long contract but Thonas is demonstrably level with Rog at the moment

My PTP picks are proof that I did.

If I check your picks over time will I find you are infallible?

Obviously not but that wasn't your question.
I did expect Roglic to beat Thomas.

kingstongraham

pblakeney said:

kingstongraham said:

pblakeney said:

kingstongraham said:

Was anyone certain Roglic was going to beat Thomas going into the tt?

I can see the argument that you wouldn't want to sign him to a long contract but Thonas is demonstrably level with Rog at the moment

My PTP picks are proof that I did.

If I check your picks over time will I find you are infallible?

Obviously not but that wasn't your question.
I did expect Roglic to beat Thomas.

That wasn't my question either though.

stage_hunter

m.r.m. said:

It's not a life time achievement award. It's what do you expect from the rider at this very moment in time.

14 seconds between Roglic and Thomas this week and they are on different tiers. Gaudu and Thomas last time out a gap of 6 minutes plus and they are on the same level? Yeah, that makes sense.

pblakeney

kingstongraham said:

pblakeney said:

kingstongraham said:

pblakeney said:

kingstongraham said:

Was anyone certain Roglic was going to beat Thomas going into the tt?

I can see the argument that you wouldn't want to sign him to a long contract but Thonas is demonstrably level with Rog at the moment

My PTP picks are proof that I did.

If I check your picks over time will I find you are infallible?

Obviously not but that wasn't your question.
I did expect Roglic to beat Thomas.

That wasn't my question either though.

Yes it was.
"Was anyone certain Roglic was going to beat Thomas going into the tt?"

phreak

stage_hunter said:

m.r.m. said:

It's not a life time achievement award. It's what do you expect from the rider at this very moment in time.

14 seconds between Roglic and Thomas this week and they are on different tiers. Gaudu and Thomas last time out a gap of 6 minutes plus and they are on the same level? Yeah, that makes sense.

To be fair, my impression was the tiers were produced to indicate who Ineos should try to sign. While it may be reasonable to think Gaudu could potentially improve, Thomas was thinking this year would be his last and might only have another year left in him. He's not someone you'd sign if you're looking for a long term challenger for GTs.

kingstongraham

pblakeney said:

kingstongraham said:

pblakeney said:

kingstongraham said:

pblakeney said:

kingstongraham said:

Was anyone certain Roglic was going to beat Thomas going into the tt?

I can see the argument that you wouldn't want to sign him to a long contract but Thonas is demonstrably level with Rog at the moment

My PTP picks are proof that I did.

If I check your picks over time will I find you are infallible?

Obviously not but that wasn't your question.
I did expect Roglic to beat Thomas.

That wasn't my question either though.

Yes it was.
"Was anyone certain Roglic was going to beat Thomas going into the tt?"

If I'd asked "Did anyone expect Roglic to beat Thomas?" then you would be correct.

kingstongraham

I thought it likely he would beat Thomas on the TT, but nowhere near certain he would overhaul him on the GC.

If you had certainty of that, I admire your confidence, but say it was misplaced. All it would have taken would be a better bike change from Thomas and a slower recovery from the dropped chain for Roglic. (Or Thomas choosing the right gearing.)

pblakeney

kingstongraham said:

pblakeney said:

kingstongraham said:

pblakeney said:

kingstongraham said:

pblakeney said:

kingstongraham said:

Was anyone certain Roglic was going to beat Thomas going into the tt?

I can see the argument that you wouldn't want to sign him to a long contract but Thonas is demonstrably level with Rog at the moment

My PTP picks are proof that I did.

If I check your picks over time will I find you are infallible?

Obviously not but that wasn't your question.
I did expect Roglic to beat Thomas.

That wasn't my question either though.

Yes it was.
"Was anyone certain Roglic was going to beat Thomas going into the tt?"

If I'd asked "Did anyone expect Roglic to beat Thomas?" then you would be correct.

Can anyone be certain of the result of any sporting event?
Your question was misleading. I certainly expected that he would win.

In any event, it is a proven fact that Roglic is currently a better GC rider than Thomas.

kingstongraham

I used to like Danny Baker's slogan for 6-0-6: "Sometimes right, sometimes wrong. Always certain."

andyrac

kingstongraham said:

I used to like Danny Baker's slogan for 6-0-6: "Sometimes right, sometimes wrong. Always certain."

When it was worth listening to, just like 5 Live itself.

wakemalcolm

I'm disappointed M.R.M. backed down on the Gaudu/Thomas comparison in the face of ridicule.

Looking at Gaudu's form so far this year (plus the highly dubious UCI and PCS rankings), I think it's well worth M.R.M. bookmarking this for future revisitation.

rick_chasey

kingstongraham said:

I used to like Danny Baker's slogan for 6-0-6: "Sometimes right, sometimes wrong. Always certain."

Nice to know my posting style isn't unique.

m.r.m.

stage_hunter said:

m.r.m. said:

It's not a life time achievement award. It's what do you expect from the rider at this very moment in time.

14 seconds between Roglic and Thomas this week and they are on different tiers. Gaudu and Thomas last time out a gap of 6 minutes plus and they are on the same level? Yeah, that makes sense.

Feel free to make your own list. It's not like I spent two days on this.

m.r.m.

wakemalcolm said:

I'm disappointed M.R.M. backed down on the Gaudu/Thomas comparison in the face of ridicule.

Looking at Gaudu's form so far this year (plus the highly dubious UCI and PCS rankings), I think it's well worth M.R.M. bookmarking this for future revisitation.

I didn't see it as ridicule or backing down. I put that list up spur of the moment. I'm fairly certain the inaccuracies will increase the further you move down the list. In life I'm not really married to being right with everything all the time. Plenty of people here know much more about cycling than I do. I'm perfectly fine with being corrected.

m.r.m.

RichN95. said:

gethinceri said:

Yes, Gaudu = Thomas is hilarious.

He's also got Pinot = Caparaz

mrm must stand for Marc Ruddy Madiot

Can the case not be made that Carapaz won 1 GT, by gaining an inordinate amount of time by being in a breakaway and being ignored by the GC favourites (at least that is how I remember it)? He lost the other Giro as a high favourite with the better team against Hindley (though Hindley did have Kämna on the biggest stage).

Pinot has done less, but if he were to continue riding and be motivated (also by me paying him 😉), would you be certain Carapaz would beat him every time? I'm not, so I kind of just smushed them together as talented riders who both won't win a GT again.

I'm hardly a fan of French WT team leadership, as I've repeatedly backed your criticism of it over the years with my enormous effort of pressing the like button. 😛

blazing_saddles

m.r.m. said:

RichN95. said:

gethinceri said:

Yes, Gaudu = Thomas is hilarious.

He's also got Pinot = Caparaz

mrm must stand for Marc Ruddy Madiot

Can the case not be made that Carapaz won 1 GT, by gaining an inordinate amount of time by being in a breakaway and being ignored by the GC favourites (at least that is how I remember it)? He lost the other Giro as a high favourite with the better team against Hindley (though Hindley did have Kämna on the biggest stage).

Pinot has done less, but if he were to continue riding and be motivated (also by me paying him 😉), would you be certain Carapaz would beat him every time? I'm not, so I kind of just smushed them together as talented riders who both won't win a GT again.

I'm hardly a fan of French WT team leadership, as I've repeatedly backed your criticism of it over the years with my enormous effort of pressing the like button. 😛

Carapaz has podiums in all 3 Grand Tours and is the current Olympic champion.
Pinot has some goats.

r0bh

m.r.m. said:

Pinot has done less, but if he were to continue riding and be motivated (also by me paying him 😉), would you be certain Carapaz would beat him every time? I'm not, so I kind of just smushed them together as talented riders who both won't win a GT again.

Yes. TBH on recent evidence I'd back Pinot to come third in a two horse race

m.r.m.

blazing_saddles said:

m.r.m. said:

RichN95. said:

gethinceri said:

Yes, Gaudu = Thomas is hilarious.

He's also got Pinot = Caparaz

mrm must stand for Marc Ruddy Madiot

Can the case not be made that Carapaz won 1 GT, by gaining an inordinate amount of time by being in a breakaway and being ignored by the GC favourites (at least that is how I remember it)? He lost the other Giro as a high favourite with the better team against Hindley (though Hindley did have Kämna on the biggest stage).

Pinot has done less, but if he were to continue riding and be motivated (also by me paying him 😉), would you be certain Carapaz would beat him every time? I'm not, so I kind of just smushed them together as talented riders who both won't win a GT again.

I'm hardly a fan of French WT team leadership, as I've repeatedly backed your criticism of it over the years with my enormous effort of pressing the like button. 😛

Carapaz has podiums in all 3 Grand Tours and is the current Olympic champion.
Pinot has some goats.

Fair point.

kingstongraham

m.r.m. said:

RichN95. said:

gethinceri said:

Yes, Gaudu = Thomas is hilarious.

He's also got Pinot = Caparaz

mrm must stand for Marc Ruddy Madiot

Can the case not be made that Carapaz won 1 GT, by gaining an inordinate amount of time by being in a breakaway and being ignored by the GC favourites (at least that is how I remember it)? He lost the other Giro as a high favourite with the better team against Hindley (though Hindley did have Kämna on the biggest stage).

I recently watched the episode of the Movistar documentary with that Giro in it, and it seemed a lot more calculated and a stronger ride by Carapaz than I remember it from watching the race.

(It's a great watch - they are on times as much of a bunch of clowns as you imagine.)

wakemalcolm

The biggest clown has to be Unzué. He has to have been hired by himself: nobody else would.

Sciandri manages to come out of it with his dignity intact: I'm surprised he hasn't been hired elsewhere.

stage_hunter

m.r.m. said:

stage_hunter said:

m.r.m. said:

It's not a life time achievement award. It's what do you expect from the rider at this very moment in time.

14 seconds between Roglic and Thomas this week and they are on different tiers. Gaudu and Thomas last time out a gap of 6 minutes plus and they are on the same level? Yeah, that makes sense.

Feel free to make your own list. It's not like I spent two days on this.

Good answer

andyp

m.r.m. said:

RichN95. said:

gethinceri said:

Yes, Gaudu = Thomas is hilarious.

He's also got Pinot = Caparaz

mrm must stand for Marc Ruddy Madiot

Can the case not be made that Carapaz won 1 GT, by gaining an inordinate amount of time by being in a breakaway and being ignored by the GC favourites (at least that is how I remember it)? He lost the other Giro as a high favourite with the better team against Hindley (though Hindley did have Kämna on the biggest stage).

Pinot has done less, but if he were to continue riding and be motivated (also by me paying him 😉), would you be certain Carapaz would beat him every time? I'm not, so I kind of just smushed them together as talented riders who both won't win a GT again.

I'm hardly a fan of French WT team leadership, as I've repeatedly backed your criticism of it over the years with my enormous effort of pressing the like button. 😛

Carapaz won that Giro fair and square. He gained time on Nibali and Roglic by riding away from them, not by being in a breakaway. They focused too much on the threat the other offered and only realised Carapaz was a threat once he was in the race lead. He did it on successive mountain stages too, so it's not like they ignored him once and he built a race winning lead. He gained just over a minute on stage 13, to move up to sixth on GC, then attacked with 28 kms to go on stage 14 to take the stage win and the maglia rosa with an advantage of 7 seconds over Roglic.

There were still a number of opportunities to get time back on him, but he was equal to them both and won convincingly.

Pross

I’m finding Pog on his own in Tier 1 a challenge when he was beaten in the last GT he rode. It’s not like JV got a fluke win and he has looked good in races this season.

Bernal at present sadly isn’t a Tier 3 and I have concerns he may never get back to that level let alone Tier 2.

I can see the argument for why you wouldn’t sign Thomas now as your main GC rider but if I had him in my team already and he was planning on another season I’d be re-signing him for his experience and as a back up.

I’d have

Tier 1 (favourites in any GT they start) - Pog and JV, will be interesting to see what happens in this year’s Tour.

Tier 2 (favourites in any GT the other 2 don’t start and outside bets if they do) - Roglic, Remco

Tier 3 (podium credentials and possible winners if none of the above finish) - Thomas, TGH, Almeida, Hindley

Beyond that are GC riders looking for a top 10 or most of the above not being present (so an outside bet for a podium at the Giro or Vuelta). Tier 1 will always start the Tour unless ill / injured. Anyone targeting the Giro is admitting they can’t win the Tour. If the Vuelta is your only GT target you are probably not even Tier 3.