Ineos Grenadiers

m.r.m.

RichN95. said:

m.r.m. said:

I strongly doubt Tom Pidcock can develop into a GC rider to rival Pogacar (probably not even Vingegaard).

But perhaps better than anything that Ineos have bar a 100% Bernal;. He''s shown climbing and TT credientials.

Ben Tulett, who won the Tour of Norway today is one to note. Ohterwise they'll be trying to court Evenepoel or maybe Ayuso.

Sure, that may be possible, but it's rather meaningless if you can't beat the competition when put into context of Ineos' budget and history.

They could probably eventually get Evenepoel if they make him the highest paid rider in the world.
Ayuso has shown the usual required abilities, with additional outstanding descending ability that some GC contenders miss. He is greatly missing consistency, which is surely down to age as well. I'd be willing to believe Ineos can help him resolve that weakness.

If I were them, I'd get Remco & Ayuso and drop Ethan Hayter, Narvaez, Bernal, Rowe, Thomas and most of the squad and do an entire rebuild with Kwiatkowski taking over for Rowe as the road captain and Martinez, Arensman, Pidcock, Tulett, Sheffield & a few others remaining.

Out:
THOMAS Geraint
VIVIANI Elia (yes he is a friend of Ganna, but time for the latter to grow up then)
BERNAL Egan
SWIFT Ben
CASTROVIEJO Jonathan
SIVAKOV Pavel
HAYTER Ethan
ROWE Luke
FRAILE Omar
NARVÁEZ Jhonatan
RODRÍGUEZ Carlos
PUCCIO Salvatore
SWIFT Connor
WURF Cameron
HEIDUK Kim
RIVERA Brandon Smith

In:
Remco (if possible of course)
Ayuso (if possible of course)
Jay Vine (if possible of course, on high salary with clear orders and bonus structure as a domestique, not a leader)
KWIATKOWSKI Michał
MARTÍNEZ Daniel Felipe
GEOGHEGAN HART Tao
GANNA Filippo
PIDCOCK Thomas
ARENSMAN Thymen
DE PLUS Laurens
SHEFFIELD Magnus
TULETT Ben
PLAPP Luke

Unsure because I haven't seen enough of them:
TURNER Ben
HAYTER Leo
TARLING Joshua
LEONARD Michael

rick_chasey

Remco isn’t doing the Tour. Confirmed

andyp

m.r.m. said:

RichN95. said:

m.r.m. said:

I strongly doubt Tom Pidcock can develop into a GC rider to rival Pogacar (probably not even Vingegaard).

But perhaps better than anything that Ineos have bar a 100% Bernal;. He''s shown climbing and TT credientials.

Ben Tulett, who won the Tour of Norway today is one to note. Ohterwise they'll be trying to court Evenepoel or maybe Ayuso.

Sure, that may be possible, but it's rather meaningless if you can't beat the competition when put into context of Ineos' budget and history.

They could probably eventually get Evenepoel if they make him the highest paid rider in the world.
Ayuso has shown the usual required abilities, with additional outstanding descending ability that some GC contenders miss. He is greatly missing consistency, which is surely down to age as well. I'd be willing to believe Ineos can help him resolve that weakness.

If I were them, I'd get Remco & Ayuso and drop Ethan Hayter, Narvaez, Bernal, Rowe, Thomas and most of the squad and do an entire rebuild with Kwiatkowski taking over for Rowe as the road captain and Martinez, Arensman, Pidcock, Tulett, Sheffield & a few others remaining.

Out:
THOMAS Geraint
VIVIANI Elia (yes he is a friend of Ganna, but time for the latter to grow up then)
BERNAL Egan
SWIFT Ben
CASTROVIEJO Jonathan
SIVAKOV Pavel
HAYTER Ethan
ROWE Luke
FRAILE Omar
NARVÁEZ Jhonatan
RODRÍGUEZ Carlos
PUCCIO Salvatore
SWIFT Connor
WURF Cameron
HEIDUK Kim
RIVERA Brandon Smith

In:
Remco (if possible of course)
Ayuso (if possible of course)
Jay Vine (if possible of course, on high salary with clear orders and bonus structure as a domestique, not a leader)
KWIATKOWSKI Michał
MARTÍNEZ Daniel Felipe
GEOGHEGAN HART Tao
GANNA Filippo
PIDCOCK Thomas
ARENSMAN Thymen
DE PLUS Laurens
SHEFFIELD Magnus
TULETT Ben
PLAPP Luke

Unsure because I haven't seen enough of them:
TURNER Ben
HAYTER Leo
TARLING Joshua
LEONARD Michael

That is wild.

A huge amount of recency bias for a start, as neither Tulett or De Plus have done much for Ineos apart from in the last couple of months.

Ben Turner is being developed as a replacement for Rowe, so someone who can ride the cobbled classics as a strong foil to a leader like Pidcock and/or Ganna, but then can take on a road captain/strong domestique for stage races.

Puccio is arguably the most under rated rider in the Ineos ranks, although Castroviejo runs him close. Every team requires a core of strong and versatile workers and these two, plus Swift (x 2) and Fraile form the backbone of the squad.

I think Ineos management have actually successfully pivoted in the past couple of years to a team that can identify and develop talent, whereas previously they bought in the riders they needed rather than develop them. The likes of Ethan Hayter, Turner, Sheffield, Rodriguez and Plapp have all shown they can lead the team in certain races and will provide wins.

What Ineos lack is clear; a GC leader to rival Pogacar, Vingegaard and Evenepoel but so do most teams. The challenge for the team management is to work out a) if they can develop someone already in their ranks to take on this role or b) identify the next GC star before everyone else does and sign him.

rick_chasey

Dunbar aside 😉

r0bh

rick_chasey said:

Dunbar aside 😉

The Dunbar who, no disrespect to him, came 7th in a Giro with what everyone was calling a weak field?

mididoctors

TGH stepped up with that TT performance. He's the real deal ..just not this year

rick_chasey

r0bh said:

rick_chasey said:

Dunbar aside 😉

The Dunbar who, no disrespect to him, came 7th in a Giro with what everyone was calling a weak field?

top 10 in your first ever GT isn't to be sniffed at, no?

Pross

andyp said:

m.r.m. said:

RichN95. said:

m.r.m. said:

I strongly doubt Tom Pidcock can develop into a GC rider to rival Pogacar (probably not even Vingegaard).

But perhaps better than anything that Ineos have bar a 100% Bernal;. He''s shown climbing and TT credientials.

Ben Tulett, who won the Tour of Norway today is one to note. Ohterwise they'll be trying to court Evenepoel or maybe Ayuso.

Sure, that may be possible, but it's rather meaningless if you can't beat the competition when put into context of Ineos' budget and history.

They could probably eventually get Evenepoel if they make him the highest paid rider in the world.
Ayuso has shown the usual required abilities, with additional outstanding descending ability that some GC contenders miss. He is greatly missing consistency, which is surely down to age as well. I'd be willing to believe Ineos can help him resolve that weakness.

If I were them, I'd get Remco & Ayuso and drop Ethan Hayter, Narvaez, Bernal, Rowe, Thomas and most of the squad and do an entire rebuild with Kwiatkowski taking over for Rowe as the road captain and Martinez, Arensman, Pidcock, Tulett, Sheffield & a few others remaining.

Out:
THOMAS Geraint
VIVIANI Elia (yes he is a friend of Ganna, but time for the latter to grow up then)
BERNAL Egan
SWIFT Ben
CASTROVIEJO Jonathan
SIVAKOV Pavel
HAYTER Ethan
ROWE Luke
FRAILE Omar
NARVÁEZ Jhonatan
RODRÍGUEZ Carlos
PUCCIO Salvatore
SWIFT Connor
WURF Cameron
HEIDUK Kim
RIVERA Brandon Smith

In:
Remco (if possible of course)
Ayuso (if possible of course)
Jay Vine (if possible of course, on high salary with clear orders and bonus structure as a domestique, not a leader)
KWIATKOWSKI Michał
MARTÍNEZ Daniel Felipe
GEOGHEGAN HART Tao
GANNA Filippo
PIDCOCK Thomas
ARENSMAN Thymen
DE PLUS Laurens
SHEFFIELD Magnus
TULETT Ben
PLAPP Luke

Unsure because I haven't seen enough of them:
TURNER Ben
HAYTER Leo
TARLING Joshua
LEONARD Michael

That is wild.

A huge amount of recency bias for a start, as neither Tulett or De Plus have done much for Ineos apart from in the last couple of months.

Ben Turner is being developed as a replacement for Rowe, so someone who can ride the cobbled classics as a strong foil to a leader like Pidcock and/or Ganna, but then can take on a road captain/strong domestique for stage races.

Puccio is arguably the most under rated rider in the Ineos ranks, although Castroviejo runs him close. Every team requires a core of strong and versatile workers and these two, plus Swift (x 2) and Fraile form the backbone of the squad.

I think Ineos management have actually successfully pivoted in the past couple of years to a team that can identify and develop talent, whereas previously they bought in the riders they needed rather than develop them. The likes of Ethan Hayter, Turner, Sheffield, Rodriguez and Plapp have all shown they can lead the team in certain races and will provide wins.

What Ineos lack is clear; a GC leader to rival Pogacar, Vingegaard and Evenepoel but so do most teams. The challenge for the team management is to work out a) if they can develop someone already in their ranks to take on this role or b) identify the next GC star before everyone else does and sign him.

Not to mention you'd have a team with very little experience in 'managing' a race in support of the leader and for doing the Puccio / Swift / Rowe / Castro donkey work away from the climbs.

I think part of the problem with the recent crop of superstars coming through is that people now expect riders to be coming in as ready formed GT or Monument winners at 21 which, historically, is an exception not a rule. Ineos have been very unlucky with Bernal who looked set to dominate for years when he first came through. We could have had some really great GT battles if he hadn't got injured and was in the mix. How quickly people have forgotten the likes of Froome, Wiggins and even Thomas who served an apprenticeship before becoming winners at the top level.

nzkirkyU4OL6ygA

But times have changed. Today young riders 16-17 are on specific training programmes. To sign with Under 23 or development squad you have to have the numbers! Can you see anyone in the team apart from Thomas top threeing in a GC next year? Maybe Arensman in the Veulta at best but he will want to ride the Tour.. Thses days you need a winner and to covert him! Dunbar is like Rubio, follow and get as high as they can get.

DeVlaeminck

It comes down to what the outlook is for Bernal - if he isn't likely to be a Tour contender for 2024 then Ineos surely need to recruit someone who is and if Pogacar and Vingegaard are unobtainable Remco seems to be the obvious choice. Can LeFevre support Remco as a GC rider and remain the dominant classics team - if you are a big money rider your interests are probably best served at a big money team.

Ayuso looks promising but is he obtainable and do you want to go all in on a young rider who has had injury problems this year.

Re who Ineos keep in terms of support riders so much will be a financial decision. Is Kwiatkowski being paid as a road captain or a monument winner, Thomas as a super domestique or a Tour winner etc. A rider might be slightly past their best but still useful so long as their contract reflects what they are not what they were - so the likes of Swift and Rowe why get rid of they are still doing a job, they are durable, experienced etc.

Pross

nzkirkyU4OL6ygA said:

But times have changed. Today young riders 16-17 are on specific training programmes. To sign with Under 23 or development squad you have to have the numbers! Can you see anyone in the team apart from Thomas top threeing in a GC next year? Maybe Arensman in the Veulta at best but he will want to ride the Tour.. Thses days you need a winner and to covert him! Dunbar is like Rubio, follow and get as high as they can get.

Yes, TGH - he's done it before and looked capable of doing it again in the Giro before his crash (assumes he makes a full recovery). If they stick their best riders in the Giro and / or Vuelta they have a good chance of a podium.

ddraver

DeVlaeminck said:

.

Is Kwiatkowski being paid as a road captain or a monument winner,

No offence to the lad, legendary career etc., but if he's still being paid as a monument winner than that is the greatest piece of contract negotiation ever...

Pross

ddraver said:

DeVlaeminck said:

.

Is Kwiatkowski being paid as a road captain or a monument winner,

No offence to the lad, legendary career etc., but if he's still being paid as a monument winner than that is the greatest piece of contract negotiation ever...

I know it's not a monument but he won Amstel only last year.

Pross

Ayuso is contracted to UAE until 2028 so will only be moving if they agree to it. He's only raced one race (Romandie) since the Vuelta so I assume they are protecting him a bit unless he had an injury / illness?

Martinez doesn't seem to be developing as many would have hoped / expected.

andyp

rick_chasey said:

r0bh said:

rick_chasey said:

Dunbar aside 😉

The Dunbar who, no disrespect to him, came 7th in a Giro with what everyone was calling a weak field?

top 10 in your first ever GT isn't to be sniffed at, no?

It was his second GT, he rode the Giro in 2019, and finished 22nd.

andyp

Pross said:

Ayuso is contracted to UAE until 2028 so will only be moving if they agree to it. He's only raced one race (Romandie) since the Vuelta so I assume they are protecting him a bit unless he had an injury / illness?

Martinez doesn't seem to be developing as many would have hoped / expected.

Ayuso has had an achilles tendon injury that has restricted his racing this season. He's scheduled to ride the Tour de Suisse next month, which will only be his second race of the year after Romandie.

DeVlaeminck

Who knows if Dunbar has much development left in him. In a way I think the sport needs riders who aim for GC but realistically aren't going to win - otherwise we end up with only 3-4 riders trying to win the race.

That said I think he might have a better career going for stages, KOMs and just being being a Voeckler type - a good but not great rider whose visibility outstrips their ability.

mididoctors

DeVlaeminck said:

Who knows if Dunbar has much development left in him. In a way I think the sport needs riders who aim for GC but realistically aren't going to win - otherwise we end up with only 3-4 riders trying to win the race.

That said I think he might have a better career going for stages, KOMs and just being being a Voeckler type - a good but not great rider whose visibility outstrips their ability.

Damming with faint praise ...he needs a TT improvement for sure ... Yates did it .on jayco too . They know what they are doing

DeVlaeminck

I don't see it as damning with faint praise - I said who knows how much improvement he has in him.

It's just that if riding for a top 10 ends up as your ceiling - and it's not a bad ceiling to have - there is a case for hunting stages, KOMs and so on. We've seen it with good riders, others that just fall short have gone into that super domestique role but based on his early career and the way he didn't become a key rider for Ineos I see Dunbar more as an attacking racer.

phreak

I see some similarities between Dunbar and someone like Adam Yates, who has never really cracked the top spots in GTs, but has done well in week long stage races and has even got in the sharp end of hilly classics. If Dunbar had a similar career that's not a bad outcome.

mididoctors

DeVlaeminck said:

I don't see it as damning with faint praise - I said who knows how much improvement he has in him.

It's just that if riding for a top 10 ends up as your ceiling - and it's not a bad ceiling to have - there is a case for hunting stages, KOMs and so on. We've seen it with good riders, others that just fall short have gone into that super domestique role but based on his early career and the way he didn't become a key rider for Ineos I see Dunbar more as an attacking racer.

I wasn't having a go .... I think there is an achievement gap between GC winner and KOM winner which demeans potential podium winners taking the easy option of the mountain jersey that does not really represent the riders true potential. A lot of riders are forced into this gap as there is no prize that fits their talents

takethehighroad

A lot of hot takes in this thread

Aside from that, I love Tom Pidcock but he is not going to get the podium of a GT in his career (and that's fine)

phreak

mididoctors said:

DeVlaeminck said:

I don't see it as damning with faint praise - I said who knows how much improvement he has in him.

It's just that if riding for a top 10 ends up as your ceiling - and it's not a bad ceiling to have - there is a case for hunting stages, KOMs and so on. We've seen it with good riders, others that just fall short have gone into that super domestique role but based on his early career and the way he didn't become a key rider for Ineos I see Dunbar more as an attacking racer.

I wasn't having a go .... I think there is an achievement gap between GC winner and KOM winner which demeans potential podium winners taking the easy option of the mountain jersey that does not really represent the riders true potential. A lot of riders are forced into this gap as there is no prize that fits their talents

There's no shame in being a Hugh Carthy type rider who can fairly consistently get top 10s in GTs but seldom threatens the podium, especially for teams who can't compete financially with Ineos/UAE/Jumbo. Heck, Pippa York was for a long time the greatest British cyclist by being a regular in the top 10 of stage races. We've perhaps become a bit accustomed to winning if we regard "only" those who win stuff as having good careers.

orraloon

Latest 'Watts Occurring' episode is a good listen, G as always quite open and relaxed.

Says there is a chance he might do La Vuelta.

mididoctors

phreak said:

mididoctors said:

DeVlaeminck said:

I don't see it as damning with faint praise - I said who knows how much improvement he has in him.

It's just that if riding for a top 10 ends up as your ceiling - and it's not a bad ceiling to have - there is a case for hunting stages, KOMs and so on. We've seen it with good riders, others that just fall short have gone into that super domestique role but based on his early career and the way he didn't become a key rider for Ineos I see Dunbar more as an attacking racer.

I wasn't having a go .... I think there is an achievement gap between GC winner and KOM winner which demeans potential podium winners taking the easy option of the mountain jersey that does not really represent the riders true potential. A lot of riders are forced into this gap as there is no prize that fits their talents

There's no shame in being a Hugh Carthy type rider who can fairly consistently get top 10s in GTs but seldom threatens the podium, especially for teams who can't compete financially with Ineos/UAE/Jumbo. Heck, Pippa York was for a long time the greatest British cyclist by being a regular in the top 10 of stage races. We've perhaps become a bit accustomed to winning if we regard "only" those who win stuff as having good careers.

I agree the point I was trying to make there is little visability fir these guys as if they go for GC they rarely get in a break or if they do everyone sits on them ...happened to Hugh a lot. Pinot all the time. And there is nothing but zubeldia land

mididoctors

UAE is packed with mega talent

wallace_and_gromit

There must be career mileage for the pros in achieving a top ten GC place in an GT, even if anonymously. Otherwise those who have no hope of a podium - bar of Acts of God - wouldn’t keep fighting to achieve such places.

andyrac

andyp said:

No_Ta_Doctor said:

Pidcock is currently racing MTB, so I doubt they're looking much at GC for him

He's not, he's preparing for the Tour in Tenerife. I don't know if he's doing any more MTB races before the Tour, or even after, as I presume he'll be doing the road worlds.

Road Worlds are 6 days before the MTB Worlds - and that is meant to be his main priority after last year's disappointment, when he came down with a bug.

m.r.m.

What some of you who are arguing against my points seem to be missing is that I'd be cutting a huge amount of riders in order to get out from under their rather huge salaries. Most of those riders are long in the tooth or I no longer believe their future worth will be greater than their past for the team.

Obviously then the roster will need to be refilled with capable domestiques in varying roles.

If I were managing Ineos and spending the kind of money they are, I'd require more bang for my buck than what is currently being achieved. Thomas getting second at the Giro against a single serious contender (grading on a scale obviously, but I don't consider Almeida a serious GC threat in terms of winning a GT against the proper tier 1 riders. He can certainly win against a weak field, but he is more Aru than Nibali) isn't success for me - not for the price Thomas is being paid. And that is the point.

I love Bernal, but I think his best days are behind him and while he may be able to get the odd win, the risk profile for his price is way too high with his entire injury history, not just the crash.

daniel_b

phreak said:

I see some similarities between Dunbar and someone like Adam Yates, who has never really cracked the top spots in GTs, but has done well in week long stage races and has even got in the sharp end of hilly classics. If Dunbar had a similar career that's not a bad outcome.

I had that exact thought when watching him last week - riding style, build, and general performance - up til now at any rate.

Pross said:

Martinez doesn't seem to be developing as many would have hoped / expected.

I thought we were going to see really good things from him - there have been glimpses, but perhaps he is destined to be a domestique, hopefully not though.