The big Coronavirus thread

TheBigBean

I discovered yesterday that daily exercise can incorporate sun bathing, picnicking and romancing, although runners are still by far the most hazardous to innocent passersby.

nickice

I was out for a walk yesterday in France and I noticed far more people are starting to chance it when it comes to cycling. To be fair, it is a stupid rule which isn't based on any real evidence. The most annoying thing is that if I lived just across the border I'd be able to cycle for leisure. It's encouraged in Belgium (and Germany).

tailwindhome

On the theme of what will be different after lock down, I wonder will the view that prisons are too soft still prevail.

focuszing723

It must seem odd. I guess every Country is different in terms of healthcare, their culture to hygiene, economy, discipline...it makes dealing with the situation very different from the next.

In an ideal World it would make more sense if every Country acted in union, alas. There again perhaps all the different responses will eventually evolve into a more focused global one.

coopster_the_1st

rick_chasey said:

surrey_commuter said:

Why not? At some point the national curve will flatten and they will ease lockdown. Many regions are below the curve already so why not let them ease?

Read something on the google stats and people the U.K. and US are still moving about way more than other nations.

It entirely correlates to the different levels of lockdowns.

The UK visits green space more than Spain, France and Italy.
The US goes shopping and visits green spaces more than Spain, France and Italy.

rjsterry

coopster_the_1st said:

rick_chasey said:

surrey_commuter said:

Why not? At some point the national curve will flatten and they will ease lockdown. Many regions are below the curve already so why not let them ease?

Read something on the google stats and people the U.K. and US are still moving about way more than other nations.

It entirely correlates to the different levels of lockdowns.

The UK visits green space more than Spain, France and Italy.
The US goes shopping and visits green spaces more than Spain, France and Italy.

I seem to remember one of the categories was 'parks'. Clearly that covers quite a lot, from joggers carefully maintaining their separation to a busy playground.

DeVlaeminck

nickice said:

I was out for a walk yesterday in France and I noticed far more people are starting to chance it when it comes to cycling. To be fair, it is a stupid rule which isn't based on any real evidence. The most annoying thing is that if I lived just across the border I'd be able to cycle for leisure. It's encouraged in Belgium (and Germany).

Just looking on twitter there's a lot more kick back against people who shame others for doing stuff like visiting the park to sunbathe etc.

rjsterry

briantrumpet said:

rick_chasey said:

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1246538228267712514?s=21

If you break those UK figures down, they really are being driven by London and Birmingham at the moment. But that's no reason to complacent elsewhere.

If you scroll down the same FT article you can see the figures for regions. While London and the West Midlands are the main outbreaks they are noticeably less severe than Lombardy and Madrid, hence London hospitals not being overwhelmed.

coopster_the_1st

My thoughts on where we are:

Western nations with advance medical practices will have a higher death rate. In poorer countries these people die of their original condition so there are less frail people for this virus to take.

Of all the western countires the US will rise from this crisis first, yes there will be a lot of short term deaths, mainly of those where the advancement in medical science has already extended their lives. They may also have the highest death rate because of demographics and a high obesity rate.

The UK is beholden by the SJW's and our sensationalist media coverage. There is belief in these circles that they need to stop the deaths but with no plan on how to deal with the virus. There is no plan out of this lockdown and the noise from the above people will mean our shutdown continues for way longer than it should.

France, Spain and Italy are all the same. I forsee them many cycles between their current lockdown and a slightly lighter lockdown(maybe a UK version) but they will panic any time deaths rise. This is going to be a long drawn out process for them, longer than the UK's and lasting until there is a vaccine. Their disgust at the US will blind them to seeing the benefits of the route they have taken.

Pross

Interesting that the Spanish trajectory went up far more quickly than Italy but had a shorter plateau and has fallen more quickly too. Possibly to do with Italy not shutting down the whole country at the same time?

coopster_the_1st

rjsterry said:

coopster_the_1st said:

rick_chasey said:

surrey_commuter said:

Why not? At some point the national curve will flatten and they will ease lockdown. Many regions are below the curve already so why not let them ease?

Read something on the google stats and people the U.K. and US are still moving about way more than other nations.

It entirely correlates to the different levels of lockdowns.

The UK visits green space more than Spain, France and Italy.
The US goes shopping and visits green spaces more than Spain, France and Italy.

I seem to remember one of the categories was 'parks'. Clearly that covers quite a lot, from joggers carefully maintaining their separation to a busy playground.

That's why I listed green space as that is how I read the categorisation

rjsterry

coopster_the_1st said:

The UK is beholden by the SJW's

I've seen Johnson and his cabinet called a lot of things, but... 😄

coopster_the_1st

rjsterry said:

coopster_the_1st said:

The UK is beholden by the SJW's

I've seen Johnson and his cabinet called a lot of things, but... 😄

Their decisions will be driven by public opinion.

If you took pure medical advice on this, we would lock down until there is a vaccine as their aim is to stop people dying.

If you took the view of a pure capitalist we would not lock down.

The lockdown happened when large numbers of the public were calling for the lockdown to happen. This will be reversed when the public mood changes. We will not unlock until then, probably after we see normality return in the US, when in reality it should have been a lot sooner.

Another thing to note, Dr Jenny Harries has not been at the daily press conference since she said at least 3 months, more likely 6 months of lockdown. The government are managing the messaging and she is not on message.

DeVlaeminck

The lockdown also happened when the Imperial report suggested deaths would be higher than perhaps previously thought - so it's not purely down to public opinion.

rjsterry

coopster_the_1st said:

rjsterry said:

coopster_the_1st said:

The UK is beholden by the SJW's

I've seen Johnson and his cabinet called a lot of things, but... 😄

Their decisions will be driven by public opinion.

If you took pure medical advice on this, we would lock down until there is a vaccine as their aim is to stop people dying.

If you took the view of a pure capitalist we would not lock down.

The lockdown happened when large numbers of the public were calling for the lockdown to happen. This will be reversed when the public mood changes. We will not unlock until then, probably after we see normality return in the US, when in reality it should have been a lot sooner.

Another thing to note, Dr Jenny Harries has not been at the daily press conference since she said at least 3 months, more likely 6 months of lockdown. The government are managing the messaging and she is not on message.

But I thought you had owned the SJWs three and a half years ago. How can they still be driving government policy?

nickice

coopster_the_1st said:

rjsterry said:

coopster_the_1st said:

The UK is beholden by the SJW's

I've seen Johnson and his cabinet called a lot of things, but... 😄

Their decisions will be driven by public opinion.

If you took pure medical advice on this, we would lock down until there is a vaccine as their aim is to stop people dying.

If you took the view of a pure capitalist we would not lock down.

The lockdown happened when large numbers of the public were calling for the lockdown to happen. This will be reversed when the public mood changes. We will not unlock until then, probably after we see normality return in the US, when in reality it should have been a lot sooner.

Another thing to note, Dr Jenny Harries has not been at the daily press conference since she said at least 3 months, more likely 6 months of lockdown. The government are managing the messaging and she is not on message.

I don't really agree with everything you say but you have a point here. I'm pretty fed up of being treated like a child by the French Government. I want to know what the evidence is for each measure as I don't believe there is any for a lot of them. But France is very hierarchical so I don't see this changing soon.

My dad is a retired doctor and his wife is currently a GP. His wife, in particular, doesn't seem to understand the psychological or economic impacts this is having/will have. For her, if people get fed up and go out, 'they'll all get the virus and die'. It's pretty easy for medical staff to tell us all to stay home as their jobs are safe (well maybe not all of them in the long run if they think about it).

coopster_the_1st

rjsterry said:

coopster_the_1st said:

rjsterry said:

coopster_the_1st said:

The UK is beholden by the SJW's

I've seen Johnson and his cabinet called a lot of things, but... 😄

Their decisions will be driven by public opinion.

If you took pure medical advice on this, we would lock down until there is a vaccine as their aim is to stop people dying.

If you took the view of a pure capitalist we would not lock down.

The lockdown happened when large numbers of the public were calling for the lockdown to happen. This will be reversed when the public mood changes. We will not unlock until then, probably after we see normality return in the US, when in reality it should have been a lot sooner.

Another thing to note, Dr Jenny Harries has not been at the daily press conference since she said at least 3 months, more likely 6 months of lockdown. The government are managing the messaging and she is not on message.

But I thought you had owned the SJWs three and a half years ago. How can they still be driving government policy?

I also referenced the sensationalist scaremongering media who will amplify the voice of the SJW's and Wokey dokeys.

It's only when glossop man is given a voice will we move forward and he will only get a voice when he starts visiting food back because he has lost his job, can't pay his mortgage, can't afford to feed his family, etc

rick_chasey

nickice said:

coopster_the_1st said:

rjsterry said:

coopster_the_1st said:

The UK is beholden by the SJW's

I've seen Johnson and his cabinet called a lot of things, but... 😄

Their decisions will be driven by public opinion.

If you took pure medical advice on this, we would lock down until there is a vaccine as their aim is to stop people dying.

If you took the view of a pure capitalist we would not lock down.

The lockdown happened when large numbers of the public were calling for the lockdown to happen. This will be reversed when the public mood changes. We will not unlock until then, probably after we see normality return in the US, when in reality it should have been a lot sooner.

Another thing to note, Dr Jenny Harries has not been at the daily press conference since she said at least 3 months, more likely 6 months of lockdown. The government are managing the messaging and she is not on message.

I don't really agree with everything you say but you have a point here. I'm pretty fed up of being treated like a child by the French Government. I want to know what the evidence is for each measure as I don't believe there is any for a lot of them. But France is very hierarchical so I don't see this changing soon.

My dad is a retired doctor and his wife is currently a GP. His wife, in particular, doesn't seem to understand the psychological or economic impacts this is having/will have. For her, if people get fed up and go out, 'they'll all get the virus and die'. It's pretty easy for medical staff to tell us all to stay home as their jobs are safe (well maybe not all of them in the long run if they think about it).

So how are you being affecting psychologically?

morstar

coopster_the_1st said:

My thoughts on where we are:

Western nations with advance medical practices will have a higher death rate. In poorer countries these people die of their original condition so there are less frail people for this virus to take.

Of all the western countires the US will rise from this crisis first, yes there will be a lot of short term deaths, mainly of those where the advancement in medical science has already extended their lives. They may also have the highest death rate because of demographics and a high obesity rate.

The UK is beholden by the SJW's and our sensationalist media coverage. There is belief in these circles that they need to stop the deaths but with no plan on how to deal with the virus. There is no plan out of this lockdown and the noise from the above people will mean our shutdown continues for way longer than it should.

France, Spain and Italy are all the same. I forsee them many cycles between their current lockdown and a slightly lighter lockdown(maybe a UK version) but they will panic any time deaths rise. This is going to be a long drawn out process for them, longer than the UK's and lasting until there is a vaccine. Their disgust at the US will blind them to seeing the benefits of the route they have taken.

nickice said:

coopster_the_1st said:

rjsterry said:

coopster_the_1st said:

The UK is beholden by the SJW's

I've seen Johnson and his cabinet called a lot of things, but... 😄

Their decisions will be driven by public opinion.

If you took pure medical advice on this, we would lock down until there is a vaccine as their aim is to stop people dying.

If you took the view of a pure capitalist we would not lock down.

The lockdown happened when large numbers of the public were calling for the lockdown to happen. This will be reversed when the public mood changes. We will not unlock until then, probably after we see normality return in the US, when in reality it should have been a lot sooner.

Another thing to note, Dr Jenny Harries has not been at the daily press conference since she said at least 3 months, more likely 6 months of lockdown. The government are managing the messaging and she is not on message.

It's pretty easy for medical staff to tell us all to stay home as their jobs are safe (well maybe not all of them in the long run if they think about it).

So job security trumps risk of death. I get your economic point but being on the frontline in a global pandemic would have far more negative impacts that outweigh the job security I would have thought.

rjsterry

There probably are lots of examples of activities that contravene the rules (whichever country) but don't actually create any additional risk. But rules have to be simple enough that people aren't left in doubt about what they can/can't do.

Jeremy.89

SJWs are basically an American phenomenon in the first place right? In the UK actual hardcore SJWs are a fringe that largely make the Labour Party look unelectable and a bit stupid on twitter. Or has Coopster basically decided that they mean whatever he disagrees with at the time.

nickice

So job security trumps risk of death. I get your economic point but being on the frontline in a global pandemic would have far more negative impacts that outweigh the job security I would have thought.


To be fair, if she were working in intensive care with a lack of equipment and a high risk of infection, I might agree. But, she's a GP, and hasn't seen any suspected cases (in fact, for obvious reasons, the surgery has been pretty quiet). Most people are following the guidelines about not turning up to the doctor's surgery with symptoms.

nickice

rjsterry said:

There probably are lots of examples of activities that contravene the rules (whichever country) but don't actually create any additional risk. But rules have to be simple enough that people aren't left in doubt about what they can/can't do.

You can't make it last if it's too strict and people see no obvious reasons for prohibiting an activity.

rick_chasey

nickice said:

rjsterry said:

There probably are lots of examples of activities that contravene the rules (whichever country) but don't actually create any additional risk. But rules have to be simple enough that people aren't left in doubt about what they can/can't do.

You can't make it last if it's too strict and people see no obvious reasons for prohibiting an activity.

Why where is your line on what is too strict and what isn’t?

coopster_the_1st

Jeremy.89 said:

SJWs are basically an American phenomenon in the first place right? In the UK actual hardcore SJWs are a fringe that largely make the Labour Party look unelectable and a bit stupid on twitter.

Pretty close, but you can add a large number of Lib Dums as well.

The group is mostly made up of people who have safe jobs and gold plated pensions eg teachers, University professors, etc and they get a much higher proportion of media coverage.

Your electician from glossop, taxi driver from Reading or corner shop owner of 40 years from Ipswich does not get anywhere near the same represensation in our media.

Yet the latter are the lifeblood of this country and the former live a comfortable life of them

rick_chasey

coopster_the_1st said:

Jeremy.89 said:

SJWs are basically an American phenomenon in the first place right? In the UK actual hardcore SJWs are a fringe that largely make the Labour Party look unelectable and a bit stupid on twitter.

Pretty close, but you can add a large number of Lib Dums as well.

The group is mostly made up of people who have safe jobs and gold plated pensions eg teachers, University professors, etc and they get a much higher proportion of media coverage.

Your electician from glossop, taxi driver from Reading or corner shop owner of 40 years from Ipswich does not get anywhere near the same represensation in our media.

Yet the latter are the lifeblood of this country and the former live a comfortable life of them

I think it is fair to say you don’t need to persuade us that you are not a university professor.

rjsterry

nickice said:

rjsterry said:

There probably are lots of examples of activities that contravene the rules (whichever country) but don't actually create any additional risk. But rules have to be simple enough that people aren't left in doubt about what they can/can't do.

You can't make it last if it's too strict and people see no obvious reasons for prohibiting an activity.

No, it's a balancing act and I doubt any government will get it spot on.

coopster_the_1st

nickice said:

rjsterry said:

There probably are lots of examples of activities that contravene the rules (whichever country) but don't actually create any additional risk. But rules have to be simple enough that people aren't left in doubt about what they can/can't do.

You can't make it last if it's too strict and people see no obvious reasons for prohibiting an activity.

I see many of the most vulnerable group still out and about, ignoring the isolation recommendation that is for their benefit of living longer.

If they are not going to respect a life and death decision why should the rest of us follow a lockdown when those most vulnerable are looking after themselves first.

coopster_the_1st

rick_chasey said:

coopster_the_1st said:

Jeremy.89 said:

SJWs are basically an American phenomenon in the first place right? In the UK actual hardcore SJWs are a fringe that largely make the Labour Party look unelectable and a bit stupid on twitter.

Pretty close, but you can add a large number of Lib Dums as well.

The group is mostly made up of people who have safe jobs and gold plated pensions eg teachers, University professors, etc and they get a much higher proportion of media coverage.

Your electician from glossop, taxi driver from Reading or corner shop owner of 40 years from Ipswich does not get anywhere near the same represensation in our media.

Yet the latter are the lifeblood of this country and the former live a comfortable life of them

I think it is fair to say you don’t need to persuade us that you are not a university professor.

Yet you on a daily basis keep demonstrating what a tw@t you are

nickice

coopster_the_1st said:

nickice said:

rjsterry said:

There probably are lots of examples of activities that contravene the rules (whichever country) but don't actually create any additional risk. But rules have to be simple enough that people aren't left in doubt about what they can/can't do.

You can't make it last if it's too strict and people see no obvious reasons for prohibiting an activity.

I see many of the most vulnerable group still out and about, ignoring the isolation recommendation that is for their benefit of living longer.

If they are not going to respect a life and death decision why should the rest of us follow a lockdown when those most vulnerable are looking after themselves first.

I talked about it above, but there isn't any evidence that shows being outside (and avoiding crowds) is a big risk for infection.