The big Coronavirus thread

surrey_commuter

There is a go fund me page to buy PPE equipment for my local hospital. Why don’t they tell the Govt where they can buy this gear.

Pross

Rick really is a little ray of sunshine brightening up my life at the moment.

Try taking the view that you should only worry about those things you are able to control and plan as best you can for other things. You might find you sleep better at night. No wonder you went bald so young!

ballysmate

rick_chasey said:

So a few thoughts on how this will change the western world

I do see this as a paradigm shift in how societies will be run

1) age of globalisation is over. No longer will there be such a focus on the cheapest product. Travel will be more difficult, we will be poorer and we will see inflation like it used to be in the 80s and 90s

2) with that the age of low touch government will be over. We will see a swing towards a much bigger government like we saw post ww2.

3) almost certainly this spells the end of US global dominance or at least heavily accelerates it. Like any superpower their hubris has come back to hits them

4) I am sceptical that the EU will survive this. The depression will be too great, the divergence too big, the recriminations post virus too nasty. From this we can expect an entirely less stable European dynamic orientated around counterbalancing German power

5) with this we will have a rise of nationalism and a rise in racism, particularly against Asians. China will be the arch enemy and that will colour this. We’ll see a rise of the far right and some respectable nations take over. Trump is a buffoon but an articulate nationalist leader who demands nationalist capitalism will do well somewhere in Europe. Poland will descend into a full authoritarian regime, Hungary already has. Le Pen will get elected in France, and the Dutch will continue their experiment with far right governments, only this time they will cosy up to Germany.


Anyway that’s what kept me up last night as I had a sore throat and could taste metallic stuff in my coffee yesterday.

Might make a mild diverting discussion over tests and virus mitigation strategies.

Here's hoping your symptoms turn out to be nothing more than a sniffle and not the dreaded lurgy.

Just to say though, when I had you down as a SJW, I never thought the W would stand for Worrier.

Jeremy.89

To paraphrase someone on twitter Three months ago, you would have scoffed at the idea of a worldwide pandemic shutting everything down the way it has. So let's hope Chasey is as crap predicting the next three months.

(not meant as a dig)

rjsterry

Hope it's just a standard issue cold RC. And maybe stay away from the news for a bit. Not sure it's good for anyone's mental health.

Pross

surrey_commuter said:

There is a go fund me page to buy PPE equipment for my local hospital. Why don’t they tell the Govt where they can buy this gear.

People have such nice cosy, simplistic views don't they? It's probably nicely covered by a meme they've seen on Facebook. My wife hasn't been able to get any kit from their regular supplier for the past month and yet these people think it's just a matter of scratching around for the money to buy it.

More practically I know a lot of construction companies are donating their spare stuff though I don't know how much crossover there is on things like masks.

rick_chasey

To be clear I write it on here since I know discussing with my wife friends etc isn’t fun for them.

I’m fine - I have it quite ok so far, work is still busy, we’re still winning work (well, my team is) and I have a job that’s entirely doable at home.

I’m probably fitter than I was as I use the turbo every lunch and I’m glad I have a house and not not holed up in a London flat.

Could be plenty worse - I guess that’s why I have the luxury to think about these things.

briantrumpet

I'm not sure where this belongs... but have a watch, and try to defend a system in the US where the private sector can hold desperate states to ransom using PPE supplies owned by the federal government...

https://twitter.com/DavidBegnaud/status/1245841458323771393

Stevo_666

Pross said:

Rick really is a little ray of sunshine brightening up my life at the moment.

Try taking the view that you should only worry about those things you are able to control and plan as best you can for other things. You might find you sleep better at night. No wonder you went bald so young!

+1

Although good to see Rick has finally taken heed of what I have been saying about the fate of the EU - I agree with his point 4.

ddraver

kingstongraham said:

Saves a company £2500ish per person once they're over the threshold, no matter how far. If there's no work and they are going to pay them anyway, it makes sense to take rishi's money regardless.

I was thinking about this last night as we had a 'stay strong' email from our Director. Yes apparently we have paid back 0.5 million in refunds and that's bad and it's not his fault etc.

However, the company has had ~200 staff at 2000 EUR/month paid for by the Swiss Government = 0.4 million. (Hopp Schwiiz!!)

Now it doesn't have to find fuel for ~100 van trips every day (I'd guess 100 EUR/day)

We have 'only' lost a month of high season before most drivers (after easter) would have finished their contracts.

Yes, there are still running costs but 'only' a month's worth.

etc

The big If is if we get a summer season or not which I guess does little more than offset some of those running costs as most resorts either don't have enough people to make it worthwhile and the 2 biking resorts are...10% of the size of the winter operation..?

This is obvs a unique situation, even more so because I guess we are finishing our high season...

Jeremy.89

Broadly I see globalisation as a trend that's going to be extremely difficult to stop. I'd argue that as a trend it was trundling on before the two world wars, and if they failed to stop it, then I don't see the pandemic managing.

The fundamental technology behind a global economy will still exist after the pandemic. Many white collar workers are getting a crash course in the best ways of using tele-working. If work that would have been delivered from a London office can be (more or less as effectively) delivered from a Cambridge home, then why not similar for an office/home office in any English speaking country.

Meanwhile physically travelling to places post pandemic will take time to find a new normal, but all the tech exists to make mass travel as cheap as its ever been.

The tendancy towards nationalism is already rearing its ugly head, but seems to be offering no protection against the virus, and I honestly think any countries that try and adopt hardcore nationalist policies during this time will end up suffering as a result. This is going to be a global effort, from the development of treatments and vaccines, to the production of ppe and test materials, which are going to involve global supply chains.

That's not to say I think everything is OK. Its pretty far from it. A company who operate in a similar space to my own made a stack of people redundant (apparently). We don't seem to be anywhere near that position, so I'm keeping my chin up but hearing such rumours is always horrible.

rjsterry

Stevo_666 said:

Pross said:

Rick really is a little ray of sunshine brightening up my life at the moment.

Try taking the view that you should only worry about those things you are able to control and plan as best you can for other things. You might find you sleep better at night. No wonder you went bald so young!

+1

Although good to see Rick has finally taken heed of what I have been saying about the fate of the EU - I agree with his point 4.

Agree that the first response from the EU was not very encouraging. On the other hand, they appear to have realised this and adjusted course. We're all going to need each other more than ever after this so I really hope they do get it together.

tailwindhome

Having seemed a lot better yesterday Mrs TWH left the bedroom for family movie/ pizza night and immediately released she wasn't as well as she thought she was with zero energy.

By my reckoning she's at day 6 or 7 if we count feeling ropey last weekend as the first symptoms.

Oddly she has no temperature, though we weren't able to get a thermometer before lock down, so its the hand on the forehead method which isn't that scientific.

She is complaining of a sore chest which is a concern.

briantrumpet

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

Pross said:

Rick really is a little ray of sunshine brightening up my life at the moment.

Try taking the view that you should only worry about those things you are able to control and plan as best you can for other things. You might find you sleep better at night. No wonder you went bald so young!

+1

Although good to see Rick has finally taken heed of what I have been saying about the fate of the EU - I agree with his point 4.

Agree that the first response from the EU was not very encouraging. On the other hand, they appear to have realised this and adjusted course. We're all going to need each other more than ever after this so I really hope they do get it together.

Ditto. We're seeing in the US that lack of co-ordination between the states - a co-ordination that is, by definition, the job of the federal government - is not the best way to run things, and is likely to be exploited by those who profit from disorganisation or conflict.

orraloon

Listen to the Voice of the People. The People will find a way to control this.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-52164358

🤔

TheBigBean

tailwindhome said:

Having seemed a lot better yesterday Mrs TWH left the bedroom for family movie/ pizza night and immediately released she wasn't as well as she thought she was with zero energy.

By my reckoning she's at day 6 or 7 if we count feeling ropey last weekend as the first symptoms.

Oddly she has no temperature, though we weren't able to get a thermometer before lock down, so its the hand on the forehead method which isn't that scientific.

She is complaining of a sore chest which is a concern.

That seems to be quite typical from what I have read. After a week people think they are about to get better and then they etiher do or it hits their lungs, and they suffer some more.

Hope Mrs TWH recovers fully soon.

rick_chasey

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

Pross said:

Rick really is a little ray of sunshine brightening up my life at the moment.

Try taking the view that you should only worry about those things you are able to control and plan as best you can for other things. You might find you sleep better at night. No wonder you went bald so young!

+1

Although good to see Rick has finally taken heed of what I have been saying about the fate of the EU - I agree with his point 4.

Agree that the first response from the EU was not very encouraging. On the other hand, they appear to have realised this and adjusted course. We're all going to need each other more than ever after this so I really hope they do get it together.

What concerns me, in no particular order

a): the grievances from the sovereign debt crisis have clearly not been put to bed and reared their head at the first opportunity.

b) the Germans and the Dutch will, relatedly still not fully commit to supporting the south in times of crisis. They feel deeply that help is a moral hazard. This will become much more pronounced when every nation is seriously hurting

c) the lack of UK to balance the tension between France and Germany.

d) there will be more nations like hungary who row back from democracy. Expulsions will likely see it fragment and further challenge leaders on what they see as the existential point of the EU.

surrey_commuter

Pross said:

surrey_commuter said:

There is a go fund me page to buy PPE equipment for my local hospital. Why don’t they tell the Govt where they can buy this gear.

People have such nice cosy, simplistic views don't they? It's probably nicely covered by a meme they've seen on Facebook. My wife hasn't been able to get any kit from their regular supplier for the past month and yet these people think it's just a matter of scratching around for the money to buy it.

More practically I know a lot of construction companies are donating their spare stuff though I don't know how much crossover there is on things like masks.

Bizarrely they have a list of the stuff they have bought. I am sure there effort is not scaleable but maybe Govt could give them £10k to micro source.

surrey_commuter

Times reporting that diagnostic industry leaders are flabbergasted at Hancock.they had a meeting with him on Weds at which no targets were mentioned, imagine their surprise when a day later he pops up on TV promising 100,000 test a day by end of April.

When will these cvnts start caring more about what can/should be done and less about clever messaging.

rick_chasey

Would also expect the banking system to be in serious problems come autumn, with global problems emanating from big European banks

kingstongraham

Tourism represents 20-30% of Greece's GDP. The complete collapse of that is the kind of thing that will cause massive tensions between countries.

surrey_commuter

I am starting to worry about the economic cost and possible solutions to easing the lockdown.
One option could be to regionalise it. Presumably the current lockdown will be eased when London has calmed down to a level that many regions have not even reached yet so why not ease them in the regions now.
As previously discussed on here there are a lot of non-essential businesses that could partially reopen with appropriate social distancing measures.

morstar

surrey_commuter said:

I am starting to worry about the economic cost and possible solutions to easing the lockdown.
One option could be to regionalise it. Presumably the current lockdown will be eased when London has calmed down to a level that many regions have not even reached yet so why not ease them in the regions now.
As previously discussed on here there are a lot of non-essential businesses that could partially reopen with appropriate social distancing measures.

In principle I agree that regions could start some activity. However, the problem I see with that is a need to keep people within their regions. If region a opens up a bit more and people travel from region b which is heavily infected, the spread accelerates.
I think there is a risk of regions becoming quite polarised too.

rick_chasey

surrey_commuter said:

I am starting to worry about the economic cost and possible solutions to easing the lockdown.
One option could be to regionalise it. Presumably the current lockdown will be eased when London has calmed down to a level that many regions have not even reached yet so why not ease them in the regions now.
As previously discussed on here there are a lot of non-essential businesses that could partially reopen with appropriate social distancing measures.

What do you think a good strategy could be?

Pross

surrey_commuter said:

Times reporting that diagnostic industry leaders are flabbergasted at Hancock.they had a meeting with him on Weds at which no targets were mentioned, imagine their surprise when a day later he pops up on TV promising 100,000 test a day by end of April.

When will these cvnts start caring more about what can/should be done and less about clever messaging.

Hancock always seems out of his depth. Whenever he says something it looks like he is asking someone to confirm what he said was correct. He really doesn't give me any confidence. At least Boris lies with conviction!

rjsterry

Pross said:

surrey_commuter said:

Times reporting that diagnostic industry leaders are flabbergasted at Hancock.they had a meeting with him on Weds at which no targets were mentioned, imagine their surprise when a day later he pops up on TV promising 100,000 test a day by end of April.

When will these cvnts start caring more about what can/should be done and less about clever messaging.

Hancock always seems out of his depth. Whenever he says something it looks like he is asking someone to confirm what he said was correct. He really doesn't give me any confidence. At least Boris lies with conviction!

I think I'd prefer some honest uncertainty.

Stevo_666

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

Pross said:

Rick really is a little ray of sunshine brightening up my life at the moment.

Try taking the view that you should only worry about those things you are able to control and plan as best you can for other things. You might find you sleep better at night. No wonder you went bald so young!

+1

Although good to see Rick has finally taken heed of what I have been saying about the fate of the EU - I agree with his point 4.

Agree that the first response from the EU was not very encouraging. On the other hand, they appear to have realised this and adjusted course. We're all going to need each other more than ever after this so I really hope they do get it together.

I'm not sure what the EU itself has done beyond the liquidity/financial measures.

What makes me think the EU will face a major crisis on this is the tensions that this will create economically and financially between the nations and especially between the 'frugal four' and the Southern European countries. There is already a major squabble over 'Coronabonds' and if there is a banking crisis, this will escalate.

Also look at the response of many countries to the crisis (not just EU countries I might add):
1. Close their borders
2. Scrabble around for medical kit needed for their country/stop supplies to other countries
3. In some cases as mentioned, take excessive powers on the back of the crisis.

Stevo_666

rick_chasey said:

Would also expect the banking system to be in serious problems come autumn, with global problems emanating from big European banks

Agree this is a risk, particularly for countries with existing weaknesses such as Italy.

Stevo_666

rick_chasey said:

surrey_commuter said:

I am starting to worry about the economic cost and possible solutions to easing the lockdown.
One option could be to regionalise it. Presumably the current lockdown will be eased when London has calmed down to a level that many regions have not even reached yet so why not ease them in the regions now.
As previously discussed on here there are a lot of non-essential businesses that could partially reopen with appropriate social distancing measures.

What do you think a good strategy could be?

Here's an article from behind a well known paywall on this: make your own judgements.

"Britain's coronavirus epidemic is expected to peak in around three weeks before a steady decline in deaths. But will that mean an end to social distancing, or could we be facing a lockdown until the end of the year?

Here are the most likely scenarios:

1. Intermittent social distancing
All scenarios involve waiting until the virus has peaked and the number of deaths has started to fall dramatically before any action will be taken.

If our timeline mirrors China, the Government could be in a position to consider lifting restrictions by early summer.

Under the first strategy, some social distancing and lockdown measures would continue throughout much of the year, but there would be breaks in which life would get back to normal.

For example, social distancing could be alternated on a regional basis to give people a rest from draconian restrictions.

The Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, which feeds into the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), has proposed that parts of the country could enjoy greater freedoms for six months at a time, before returning to lockdown.

Several apps have recently come online, tracking symptoms throughout the country, which could give public health officials an idea about where hotspots are, so they can be locked down early. Lockdown may also be re-established as we move towards the winter months and the NHS finds itself under increased pressure.

Paul Hunter, Professor of Medicine at the University of East Anglia said: "Personally, I suspect that the disease will tail off during June and July, partly because of social distancing, partly because of increased population (herd) immunity, and partly because these sorts of infections tend to spread less readily during the summer.

"So I suspect there will be some relaxation at that time. But I think it may come back, though less aggressively, in the autumn, and social isolation may need to be strengthened for a while."

A fragmentary, regional lockdown would give the NHS a series of breaks, allowing it to ramp up capacity and then enjoy quieter periods.

And it would allow time for a vaccine or treatment to be created and for immunity in the population to build up slowly.

Mark Woolhouse, Professor of Infectious Disease Epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said: "It's almost certain to be a partial release. Whatever measures are relaxed, that runs the risk that the epidemic curve will start to increase again.

“Extending the lockdown buys you more time to raise the capacity in the NHS. That wouldn't solve the epidemic problems, and you would need to be in another lockdown eventually - but it would give us longer.”

2. Allow the healthy and immune out
Shielding the vulnerable, and allowing the healthy or immune out to carry on with their lives and get back to work, could be a way to break the deadlock and allow major parts of society to return to normal.

The Government has promised that antibody tests - which show whether someone has had the virus and is now immune - will be available within weeks, and Britons could soon be issued "immunity certificates" that would allow them to leave the lockdown.

In the coming weeks, public health experts are also due to start community surveillance to find out how many people have had the virus, which could end the need for a lockdown.

Prof Hunter added: "If a large proportion - somewhere around 60 per cent - of the population become immune, the lockdown will not serve that much more purpose as herd immunity will be at a level that the disease would struggle to spread. So, lockdown over.

"One thing that may happen, is that people who can prove that they had the infection and are now immune may be allowed more access to work, etc.

"If social distancing has worked and the NHS has survived then, we are likely to see a much smaller proportion of the population being immune. The risk of relaxing too early is that you then get a second peak.

"However, subsequent peaks will usually be less dramatic and potentially more manageable."

Under this scenario, the Government could also bring in weekly testing for people most at risk of spreading the disease, such as doctors, nurses, supermarket workers and delivery staff.

Prof Woolhouse said: "We could change tack slightly. At the moment the emphasis is very much on reducing transmission in the community, but if shielding the vulnerable could be enhanced including very rigorous testing with infected persons being isolated then that will save lives.

"It will also reduce the burden on the NHS and it will also allow the rest of us to be released from some of the measures."

Germany, which is carrying out hundreds of thousands of tests, is planning to give certificates to citizens.

Prof Karol Sikora, Dean of Medicine at the University of Buckingham said: "Germany has got testing spot-on.

"They plan to test hundreds of thousands for the presence of the antibodies and issue 'immunity certificates' to those who test positive, allowing their work to be exempt from the lockdown. This information will be a huge weapon against the virus."

Part 2 next...

Stevo_666

3. Seek and destroy
This strategy involves waiting until the virus is at a very low level, lifting restrictions and combating the remaining cases through aggressive contact tracing, testing, isolation, and precision quarantine zones.

The method has been adopted successfully in Singapore and South Korea, which have coped far better than most other countries, and have done so without major lockdowns.

Jeremy Hunt, the former Health Secretary and Chairman of the Health Select Committee, said such a strategy could save months of "anguish and economic strife".

"If you look at what's happening in South Korea and Singapore, they've managed to keep their offices, shops, restaurants open, but they do that by having a mass programme of testing so anyone with symptoms is tested, everyone they’ve come into contact with is tested, and you can keep on top of the virus.

"So when we get through this and we want to avoid these kinds of lockdowns again, and keep the economy going, mass testing is the way to do it."

Mr Hunt said Britain was in the enviable position of being able to look at the policies of other countries to see what's working, and said Government modellers were keeping a close eye on Wuhan, the Chinese city where the global pandemic began, to see if the virus reemerges following the lifting of social-distancing restrictions.

Prof Woolhouse added: "The third strategy, is essentially to extend the lockdown until numbers are very low indeed and try and implement a 'seek and destroy mission' where you try and track down every single case, testing very extensively and isolating those infected. But you can only do that if the numbers are not that high."

Dr Marc Lipsitch, Director and Professor of Epidemiology at Harvard University, published a paper last week suggesting that once testing is scaled up on a bigger scale, restrictions could be lessened.

"If the case numbers are really low enough, you can do a more Singapore-like strategy of following individual cases rather than just social distancing," he said.

"Aggressive contact tracing and quarantine - impractical now in many places but more practical once case numbers have been reduced and testing scaled up - could alleviate the need for stringent social distancing to maintain control of the epidemic."

A new open-source app from Massachusetts Institute of Technology called Private Kit: Safe Paths notifies users if someone they have been in close contact with has tested positive so they can self-isolate. Some countries are using CCTV to trace who infected people have been near so they can be traced.

4. Wait for vaccine or treatment
The final option is to wait it out until a vaccine or treatment is available and then build up herd immunity. Many scientists think that is the only long-term solution to getting life back to normal.


Earlier this month, Prof Neil Ferguson, the key epidemiologist advising the Government, said: "The only exit strategy from this long term is vaccination or some other kind of innovative technology."

Scientists have predicted that the first vaccines will not be available until the end of the year at the earliest, and even then, they will be reserved for frontline workers and the most vulnerable in the first instance.

Treatments could be quicker, with dozens of trials under way to see if antivirals that are already used for other conditions, such as malaria and HIV, could prove effective. Plasma from the blood of recovered victims could also be injected into patients.

If a working cure does become available in the coming weeks or month then lockdown will be lifted far sooner.

Prof Hunter added: "By autumn we may have some proven effective drug treatments that if taken early enough could reduce the severity of illness and need for hospitalisation, critical care beds and ventilatory support.

"If that is the case then that would also be a reason for relaxing social distancing." "