The big Coronavirus thread

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  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,926
    ddraver said:

    It would seem to be phenomenally good luck that in an international outbreak they have only been affected by a minor strain

    Most of their cases started from one infection in one secretive church (possibly patient 31 from memory). It is not inconceivable that (i) that is the most widespread infection (ii) it is milder.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,155
    edited April 2020
    Stevo_666 said:

    kingstongraham said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    kingstongraham said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    The reason is probably the way the relief is structured. Companies can claim back up to 80% of the employees wages or £2,500 per month, whichever is lower. So above a threshold salary of £37,500 pa, it gets progressively more expensive to furlough employees.

    Only if you continue to pay them their full salary. It is at the discretion of the employer to top up the payment.
    If that's the case then if you don't top up the payment, you don't get the money from the government...hence my point about it being more economically attractive to furlough those earning £37.5k pa or less.
    Not so, as I understood it:

    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/claim-for-wage-costs-through-the-coronavirus-job-retention-scheme

    Employers need to make a claim for wage costs through this scheme.

    You will receive a grant from HMRC to cover the lower of 80% of an employee’s regular wage or £2,500 per month, plus the associated Employer National Insurance contributions and minimum automatic enrolment employer pension contributions on that subsidised wage. Fees, commission and bonuses should not be included.

    At a minimum, employers must pay their employee the lower of 80% of their regular wage or £2,500 per month. An employer can also choose to top up an employee’s salary beyond this but is not obliged to under this scheme.
    Depends how many employers would try to pay their employees the minimum or less then the normal pay. Clearly unless they stick to the minimum legal amount, its cheaper to do that for lower paid workers.
    Once you are over the £2,500 threshold, it makes no difference - it's the same amount per person. The company is paying more for someone to do nothing - but if there's nothing for them to do, it doesn't make any difference.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,155
    But if it goes on, and once it starts to bite, I'd expect more companies to start paying less than 100%.
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    TheBigBean said:

    focuszing723 said:

    South Korea amongst other Asian countries have a culture of wearing face masks. They also have had experience in dealing with situations like this with sars and mers.

    Yes, they also have more intensive care beds, good use of technology, no worries about app tracking, experience of things drifting over from China and masking wearing etc. but the difference is still fairly stunning unless the theory is that they simply don't have that many infections because of the above.


    TheBigBean said:

    Another thing I have wondered is whether Korea has milder strain. They have 175 deaths in total versus 684 in the UK for today alone. It is not a young country either - Korean women have the highest life expectancy in the world.

    They've ensured (so far) that they've only had 10k cases by testing and isolating.

    Possibly 1.75% is the best assessment of the death rate for C19


    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,432
    kingstongraham said:

    But if it goes on, and once it starts to bite, I'd expect more companies to start paying less than 100%.

    Possibly, but at present the reality (as reported in example above such as football clubs and others that I am aware of including my own group) is that it is mostly the employees below that pay threshold that are being furloughed.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,155
    I think that's just because they're more likely to not be able to work from home.

    Obviously depends on the sector. A third of my team have been furloughed this week due to reduced workload. Large numbers in other parts of the business. This is in retail.
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    tailwindhome said:

    As ICU places are finite it will always plateau
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,926
    tailwindhome said:

    TheBigBean said:

    focuszing723 said:

    South Korea amongst other Asian countries have a culture of wearing face masks. They also have had experience in dealing with situations like this with sars and mers.

    Yes, they also have more intensive care beds, good use of technology, no worries about app tracking, experience of things drifting over from China and masking wearing etc. but the difference is still fairly stunning unless the theory is that they simply don't have that many infections because of the above.
    , s

    TheBigBean said:

    Another thing I have wondered is whether Korea has milder strain. They have 175 deaths in total versus 684 in the UK for today alone. It is not a young country either - Korean women have the highest life expectancy in the world.

    They've ensured (so far) that they've only had 10k cases by testing and isolating.

    Possibly 1.75% is the best assessment of the death rate for C19


    I can't be bother to do the exact calculations, but that probably implies 250k infections in the UK, so about 5% of the way to herd immunity.

    In other news, the anti body test doesn't work very well so far.
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    edited April 2020
    On ending the lock down


    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • pangolin
    pangolin Posts: 6,648
    kingstongraham said:

    I think that's just because they're more likely to not be able to work from home.

    Obviously depends on the sector. A third of my team have been furloughed this week due to reduced workload. Large numbers in other parts of the business. This is in retail.

    90% of my company furloughed at 80% pay, made up to full 80 by company if you're over £2500 pcm.

    Remaining 10% of us are still at work, but doing 80% hours for 80% pay... Hmm.
    - Genesis Croix de Fer
    - Dolan Tuono
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    tailwindhome said:

    TheBigBean said:

    focuszing723 said:

    South Korea amongst other Asian countries have a culture of wearing face masks. They also have had experience in dealing with situations like this with sars and mers.

    Yes, they also have more intensive care beds, good use of technology, no worries about app tracking, experience of things drifting over from China and masking wearing etc. but the difference is still fairly stunning unless the theory is that they simply don't have that many infections because of the above.


    TheBigBean said:

    Another thing I have wondered is whether Korea has milder strain. They have 175 deaths in total versus 684 in the UK for today alone. It is not a young country either - Korean women have the highest life expectancy in the world.

    They've ensured (so far) that they've only had 10k cases by testing and isolating.

    Possibly 1.75% is the best assessment of the death rate for C19


    This of course being a 'kept under control' rate.
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,334
    It's a lose/lose situation.
    We will never know if the end result is because the scenario was over estimated or if it is as a result of the steps taken.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,389
    I'm not aware - yet - of anyone suggesting leaving London to its fate (even if that could be the 'logical' conclusion of the Modest Proposal in this thread). Meanwhile, in the US, how about NY?

    https://www.facebook.com/unanglaisendiois
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,432
    edited April 2020
    pangolin said:

    kingstongraham said:

    I think that's just because they're more likely to not be able to work from home.

    Obviously depends on the sector. A third of my team have been furloughed this week due to reduced workload. Large numbers in other parts of the business. This is in retail.

    90% of my company furloughed at 80% pay, made up to full 80 by company if you're over £2500 pcm.

    Remaining 10% of us are still at work, but doing 80% hours for 80% pay... Hmm.
    @KG - hence more expensive in real life for those above the wage threshold.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,155
    Saves a company £2500ish per person once they're over the threshold, no matter how far. If there's no work and they are going to pay them anyway, it makes sense to take rishi's money regardless.

    Obviously a more expensive employee costs more than a lower paid employee, but the saving is identical.
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,334
    BJ due to come out of isolation and doesn't.
    Whiffs of being in hiding. Your conclusion is yours.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • DeVlaeminck
    DeVlaeminck Posts: 9,104
    I'm not a fan of BoJo but I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt on that - I can't see why he'd hide and let others face the press because ultimately he would still carry the can.
    [Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
  • DeVlaeminck
    DeVlaeminck Posts: 9,104
    On a lighter note think I might go for an urban bike ride at 8pm next Thursday - might be my only chance to feel like a pro race winner soloing to the finish.
    [Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,432
    pblakeney said:

    BJ due to come out of isolation and doesn't.
    Whiffs of being in hiding. Your conclusion is yours.

    Reported in the news that he is still displaying symptoms. Draw your own conclusions.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • coopster_the_1st
    coopster_the_1st Posts: 5,158
    pblakeney said:

    BJ due to come out of isolation and doesn't.
    Whiffs of being in hiding. Your conclusion is yours.

    It's easier to draw our own conclusions about people who make conspiracy theory posts like this.
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,334
    🤣🤣🤣
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Stevo_666 said:

    pblakeney said:

    BJ due to come out of isolation and doesn't.
    Whiffs of being in hiding. Your conclusion is yours.

    Reported in the news that he is still displaying symptoms. Draw your own conclusions.
    He looked rough as f@ck during that clapping
    _
  • focuszing723
    focuszing723 Posts: 8,151
    edited April 2020
    Lol at both of you.

    Don't forget he did try and hide in that freezer, so he has form...
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,926
    He should know that the maximum recovery time from the virus is 7 days. All those stuck in hospital for weeks are clearly just work shy.

    [This is sarcasm]
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Ugh

    _
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    edited April 2020
    So a few thoughts on how this will change the western world

    I do see this as a paradigm shift in how societies will be run

    1) age of globalisation is over. No longer will there be such a focus on the cheapest product. Travel will be more difficult, we will be poorer and we will see inflation like it used to be in the 80s and 90s

    2) with that the age of low touch government will be over. We will see a swing towards a much bigger government like we saw post ww2.

    3) almost certainly this spells the end of US global dominance or at least heavily accelerates it. Like any superpower their hubris has come back to hits them

    4) I am sceptical that the EU will survive this. The depression will be too great, the divergence too big, the recriminations post virus too nasty. From this we can expect an entirely less stable European dynamic orientated around counterbalancing German power

    5) with this we will have a rise of nationalism and a rise in racism, particularly against Asians. China will be the arch enemy and that will colour this. We’ll see a rise of the far right and some respectable nations take over. Trump is a buffoon but an articulate nationalist leader who demands nationalist capitalism will do well somewhere in Europe. Poland will descend into a full authoritarian regime, Hungary already has. Le Pen will get elected in France, and the Dutch will continue their experiment with far right governments, only this time they will cosy up to Germany.


    Anyway that’s what kept me up last night as I had a sore throat and could taste metallic stuff in my coffee yesterday.

    Might make a mild diverting discussion over tests and virus mitigation strategies.
    _
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Oh and I forgot 6) most nations in the world move to a heavily surveillanced society more akin to the China model, with regional varieties. In the name of more efficient government and protecting society. Individualism will decline as a powerful force.
    _
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,334
    A lot of that may well come to pass. Sadly.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,334


    Being married to someone at the front line I can assure you that this is truer than some would have you believe.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.

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