The big Coronavirus thread

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  • john80
    john80 Posts: 2,965
    surrey_commuter said:

    I am starting to worry about the economic cost and possible solutions to easing the lockdown.
    One option could be to regionalise it. Presumably the current lockdown will be eased when London has calmed down to a level that many regions have not even reached yet so why not ease them in the regions now.
    As previously discussed on here there are a lot of non-essential businesses that could partially reopen with appropriate social distancing measures.

    I am doing an extension at the minute and the economic implications of this are staggering om the professional building trade. All builders merchants are closed with the exception of a few hubs. Personally i think this has gone too far. The could have closed their depots to the public and ran the business as a delivery only basis with minimal human contact. One of the main reason is that they cant staff due to sickness and the 80% pay pledge. Why go to work when the government is going to pay you to sit at home. I can see why the govermment has done this but this is the consequence.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    rick_chasey said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    I am starting to worry about the economic cost and possible solutions to easing the lockdown.
    One option could be to regionalise it. Presumably the current lockdown will be eased when London has calmed down to a level that many regions have not even reached yet so why not ease them in the regions now.
    As previously discussed on here there are a lot of non-essential businesses that could partially reopen with appropriate social distancing measures.

    What do you think a good strategy could be?

    I would immediately regionalise the lockdown and carefully monitor the effects of easement. My easement measures would prioritise getting the economy running again.

    The problem is of course that we run back into the fvck up over testing which means the most reliable metric we have is deaths.
  • capt_slog
    capt_slog Posts: 3,974
    orraloon said:

    Listen to the Voice of the People. The People will find a way to control this.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-52164358

    🤔

    There's even a league table per county/town of how many they've set fire to, they're actively competing. I just despair over these idiots.


    The older I get, the better I was.

  • orraloon
    orraloon Posts: 13,232
    At least they are not setting fire to humans. Not yet.
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,389
    capt_slog said:

    orraloon said:

    Listen to the Voice of the People. The People will find a way to control this.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-52164358

    🤔

    There's even a league table per county/town of how many they've set fire to, they're actively competing. I just despair over these idiots.

    I wish they'd just say "There is no evidence..." - just making stuff up doesn't make it into 'evidence', credible or not.
    https://www.facebook.com/unanglaisendiois
  • capt_slog
    capt_slog Posts: 3,974
    It makes me want to start a counter-rumour.

    Something along the lines of.."the way to stop yourself getting coronavirus from 5G masts, it to drink plenty of Domestos"


    The older I get, the better I was.

  • Jeremy.89
    Jeremy.89 Posts: 457
    Stevo_666 said:

    rjsterry said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    Pross said:

    Rick really is a little ray of sunshine brightening up my life at the moment.

    Try taking the view that you should only worry about those things you are able to control and plan as best you can for other things. You might find you sleep better at night. No wonder you went bald so young!

    +1

    Although good to see Rick has finally taken heed of what I have been saying about the fate of the EU - I agree with his point 4.
    Agree that the first response from the EU was not very encouraging. On the other hand, they appear to have realised this and adjusted course. We're all going to need each other more than ever after this so I really hope they do get it together.
    I'm not sure what the EU itself has done beyond the liquidity/financial measures.

    What makes me think the EU will face a major crisis on this is the tensions that this will create economically and financially between the nations and especially between the 'frugal four' and the Southern European countries. There is already a major squabble over 'Coronabonds' and if there is a banking crisis, this will escalate.

    Also look at the response of many countries to the crisis (not just EU countries I might add):
    1. Close their borders
    2. Scrabble around for medical kit needed for their country/stop supplies to other countries
    3. In some cases as mentioned, take excessive powers on the back of the crisis.

    It's a brave country that comes out of a crisis such as this and goes, you know what, now is an ideal time to; change currency and reimagine their entire foreign policy.

    The Brexit process lead to substantial political paralysis. I'm not sure there will be much appetite for that possibility amongst European nations either.

  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,432
    Jeremy.89 said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    rjsterry said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    Pross said:

    Rick really is a little ray of sunshine brightening up my life at the moment.

    Try taking the view that you should only worry about those things you are able to control and plan as best you can for other things. You might find you sleep better at night. No wonder you went bald so young!

    +1

    Although good to see Rick has finally taken heed of what I have been saying about the fate of the EU - I agree with his point 4.
    Agree that the first response from the EU was not very encouraging. On the other hand, they appear to have realised this and adjusted course. We're all going to need each other more than ever after this so I really hope they do get it together.
    I'm not sure what the EU itself has done beyond the liquidity/financial measures.

    What makes me think the EU will face a major crisis on this is the tensions that this will create economically and financially between the nations and especially between the 'frugal four' and the Southern European countries. There is already a major squabble over 'Coronabonds' and if there is a banking crisis, this will escalate.

    Also look at the response of many countries to the crisis (not just EU countries I might add):
    1. Close their borders
    2. Scrabble around for medical kit needed for their country/stop supplies to other countries
    3. In some cases as mentioned, take excessive powers on the back of the crisis.

    It's a brave country that comes out of a crisis such as this and goes, you know what, now is an ideal time to; change currency and reimagine their entire foreign policy.

    The Brexit process lead to substantial political paralysis. I'm not sure there will be much appetite for that possibility amongst European nations either.

    It's not necessarily as simple as coming out the other side and deciding to do that. It may happen during the crisis and some issues may be forced.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,463
    The idea of having different regions being allowed out for 6 months at a a time is likely to lead to a lot of arguments over who gets April - September. Imagine getting your 6 months in the gloom of winter and watching others have a summer of freedom!
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,463
    orraloon said:

    Listen to the Voice of the People. The People will find a way to control this.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-52164358

    🤔

    That was exactly the ridiculous theory that led me to delete a friend of 30 odd years on Facebook a couple of weeks back. I had no idea there were so many like minded loons at there. I can sort of see where people are coming from in thinking radio waves etc. can cause cancers but I'm really struggling to see how even the most batshit crazy conspiracy theorist can suggest it can cause a virus.
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,432
    Pross said:

    The idea of having different regions being allowed out for 6 months at a a time is likely to lead to a lot of arguments over who gets April - September. Imagine getting your 6 months in the gloom of winter and watching others have a summer of freedom!

    Would it make a lot of difference in Wales?
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • diamonddog
    diamonddog Posts: 3,426
    edited April 2020
    Spain looking to extend lockdown until 26th April which takes it to 6 weeks in total, Congress voting on it next Thursday. Some non essential workers may be able to start working after Easter.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,156
    capt_slog said:

    It makes me want to start a counter-rumour.

    Something along the lines of.."the way to stop yourself getting coronavirus from 5G masts, it to drink plenty of Domestos"

    Already out there.

    https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/health/1254720/coronavirus-bleach-does-bleach-kill-viruses-drink-bleach-COVID-19-myths
  • orraloon
    orraloon Posts: 13,232
    Pross said:

    orraloon said:

    Listen to the Voice of the People. The People will find a way to control this.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-52164358

    🤔

    That was exactly the ridiculous theory that led me to delete a friend of 30 odd years on Facebook a couple of weeks back. I had no idea there were so many like minded loons at there. I can sort of see where people are coming from in thinking radio waves etc. can cause cancers but I'm really struggling to see how even the most batshit crazy conspiracy theorist can suggest it can cause a virus.
    There was that media / political noise not that long ago, though seems like it was years back, about Huawei and 5G and the 'risks', Huawei Chinese, Covid-19 came out of China, therefore....simples innit.
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    I'd like to see a cross check of those posting on social media about 5G and those previously posting anti-vaxx propaganda.
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    Extraordinary from Bill Gates.


    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • kingstonian
    kingstonian Posts: 2,847
    Really like how he brings big picture thinking to the big problems
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,463
    That's a bloke who 20 years ago used to be vilified. An example of how someone can make a fortune but go on to do worthwhile things with it.
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,334
    tailwindhome said:

    I'd like to see a cross check of those posting on social media about 5G and those previously posting anti-vaxx propaganda.

    I’d also cross reference Britain First.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • Wheelspinner
    Wheelspinner Posts: 6,697
    pblakeney said:

    tailwindhome said:

    I'd like to see a cross check of those posting on social media about 5G and those previously posting anti-vaxx propaganda.

    I’d also cross reference Britain First.
    Why? You don’t have a monopoly on morons... 😀

    I’ve an acquaintance in that loopy category about 5G and the Rothschilds owning the world, aliens etc. he’s otherwise a nice harmless bloke. Is posting on FB about an upcoming “event” being organised with a million people all meditating at once to combat the CV-19.

    🙄🤦‍♂️
    Open One+ BMC TE29 Seven 622SL On One Scandal Cervelo RS
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    _
  • focuszing723
    focuszing723 Posts: 8,151
    edited April 2020
    It's been extremely quiet outside again, people really respecting the guidelines. I don't live in a City though.

    The wildlife must be thinking 'what the hell are those humans upto, perhaps they've come to their senses.'
  • DeVlaeminck
    DeVlaeminck Posts: 9,104
    I agree, I've been surprised just how well the restrictions have been respected.
    [Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,389
    DeVlaeminck said:

    I agree, I've been surprised just how well the restrictions have been respected.

    And the M5 and A30 through Devon towards Cornwall almost deserted today.
    https://www.facebook.com/unanglaisendiois
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,389
    rick_chasey said:


    If you break those UK figures down, they really are being driven by London and Birmingham at the moment. But that's no reason to complacent elsewhere.
    https://www.facebook.com/unanglaisendiois
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    Why not? At some point the national curve will flatten and they will ease lockdown. Many regions are below the curve already so why not let them ease?
  • focuszing723
    focuszing723 Posts: 8,151
    People in Cities would flock to the country or just ignore the guidelines, because they would see people in other parts of the country getting back to normal.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    surrey_commuter said:

    Why not? At some point the national curve will flatten and they will ease lockdown. Many regions are below the curve already so why not let them ease?

    Read something on the google stats and people the U.K. and US are still moving about way more than other nations.
    _
  • capt_slog
    capt_slog Posts: 3,974
    focuszing723 said:

    It's been extremely quiet outside again, people really respecting the guidelines. I don't live in a City though.

    The wildlife must be thinking 'what the hell are those humans upto, perhaps they've come to their senses.'

    A prediction.

    When people can get out into the countryside again, they're going to find some fields have been taken over by 'travellers' who have become 'settlers'. It has happened on quite few easter weekends, when the authorities can't be contacted, the extended shutdown could be an ideal opportunity for them.


    The older I get, the better I was.

  • morstar
    morstar Posts: 6,190
    edited April 2020
    rick_chasey said:

    A 7 day rolling average is a bit of an aggressive smoothing though if we assume the virus lifecycle is in the region of 2-3 weeks. I’d have thought 3 days max would balance daily anomalies more effectively against rate of increase.
    The overall impact is clear but it’s not refined enough to make direct comparisons of trends when so many other factors are at play. E.g. population density, no. of outbreaks etc.
    e.g. If UK is heavily London-centric, that could tail off very quickly compared to a nation with multiple outbreaks at different stages.

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