The big Coronavirus thread
Comments
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My in-laws live in Holland. The father in law is in his early 80's and has underlying health issues, and was told in no uncertain terms by his GP a few days ago that if he gets Covid-19 he won't get a place in ICU. We don't know to what extent that is a true statement, or if it was a shot across his bows to not be a stubborn old fool and to pay attention to the lockdown instructions, but it was pretty stark to hear.0
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I would like to hear the full context of that conversation, but yeah it does sound rather direct.0
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This plan is comical.coopster_the_1st said:
Cool. you are demonstrating you understand herd immutity. There are plenty of others on here that don't.haydenm said:Are you suggesting we remove all restrictions and achieve herd immunity? Because my point is that looks like the general approach we are going for, just with a ceiling on the transmission rate to try and keep the NHS operating in the meantime. A slight relaxing of the rules in a month or two with the use of technology to help people know if they are likely to get sick could happen. Just because they are trying to slow the spread doesn't mean we aren't going for some sort of herd immunity surely?
People are going to die from C19 anyway and herd immunity needs to happen sooner rather than later.
We cannot turn down and then turn up the lockdown over the next 12+ months as the economy will die before that from the uncertainty caused.
So we need a much more agressive approach to getting herd immunity, particularly among the young.
So I would bring schools and universities back for anyone who does not have an old or vulnerable person living at home with them after Easter.
Then unlock the under 30's, then under 40's, etc, under the same rules as above, thus allowing businesses to start to re-open.
All the while doing our best to maintain the 2m social distancing that we currently have. No travel on any public transport unless you are a critical or key worker.
If you are old and/or vulnerable and decide to unlock yourself before your advised time the risk is on you but don't expect a hospital bed for you if you require it.
Most students wouldn't be able to go back to school or uni. Do classes just proceed for those who can and those who can't get put back a year? Do they do everything remote + physical till everyone is back? Not workable.
Same goes for 30's and 40's lots of people will be unable to return to work.
If enough can return to work, the 2m rule goes out the window.
Loads will be expected to return to work but unable to get there because you've banned them from public transport.
And if you are 'old and/or vulnerable' and do get sick you what - refuse them entry to a hospital? Who decides what vulnerable is?- Genesis Croix de Fer
- Dolan Tuono0 -
I have always said that actions should be taken "while protecting the NHS"focuszing723 said:
Coopster, you've changed your tune now. At the start it was all about old people and natural consequences . You completely dismissed any notion of a lock-down to protect the NHS and other support services. If we would have gone this route the system would be on it's knees by now!coopster_the_1st said:
Cool. you are demonstrating you understand herd immutity. There are plenty of others on here that don't.haydenm said:Are you suggesting we remove all restrictions and achieve herd immunity? Because my point is that looks like the general approach we are going for, just with a ceiling on the transmission rate to try and keep the NHS operating in the meantime. A slight relaxing of the rules in a month or two with the use of technology to help people know if they are likely to get sick could happen. Just because they are trying to slow the spread doesn't mean we aren't going for some sort of herd immunity surely?
People are going to die from C19 anyway and herd immunity needs to happen sooner rather than later.
We cannot turn down and then turn up the lockdown over the next 12+ months as the economy will die before that from the uncertainty caused.
So we need a much more agressive approach to getting herd immunity, particularly among the young.
So I would bring schools and universities back for anyone who does not have an old or vulnerable person living at home with them after Easter.
Then unlock the under 30's, then under 40's, etc, under the same rules as above, thus allowing businesses to start to re-open.
All the while doing our best to maintain the 2m social distancing that we currently have. No travel on any public transport unless you are a critical or key worker.
If you are old and/or vulnerable and decide to unlock yourself before your advised time the risk is on you but don't expect a hospital bed for you if you require it.
All you are doing now is reiterating what the government and healthcare advisers have been proposing from day 1 of the press conference.0 -
Last I looked, Germany's number of deaths had started to follow a similar trajectory as Italy, but about 19 days behind. It may be that the testing has allowed them to slow the initial spread and get more time to prepare.0
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The people who were using the chart to say the UK is 14 days behind Italy are also saying from the same chart that Germany is 5 days behind the UKPross said:
I'm not sure what Germany are doing but the last comparison graph I saw was suggesting it wasn't working any better than our approach. here are very few countries whose graph are significantly better than ours (Japan and South Korea being the obvious exceptions though there was some talk that Japan were massaging the figures to try to avoid the Olympics getting postponed). Yes, we had the benefit of two weeks learning from Italy that we could have made better use of and yes the Government seem to be royally censored up the distribution of PPE and testing kits but I'm not seeing many other countries delivering better outcomes.rick_chasey said:
Herd immunity is a short-hand for doing SFA, not to be taken literally.haydenm said:Are you suggesting we remove all restrictions and achieve herd immunity? Because my point is that looks like the general approach we are going for, just with a ceiling on the transmission rate to try and keep the NHS operating in the meantime. A slight relaxing of the rules in a month or two with the use of technology to help people know if they are likely to get sick could happen. Just because they are trying to slow the spread doesn't mean we aren't going for some sort of herd immunity surely?
It is the opposite approach to what the Koreans and the Germans are doing.0 -
My understanding is that germany is doing more tests and therefore their death rate is lower as those with mild symptoms and dont go to hospital count. In the UK you pretty much only get a test if you go to hospital and are admitted so essentially if 20% need treated then we are not counting the other 80% that stayed at home and mainly did not die. There was also the hyothesis put forward that there initial deathrate was low because mainly young fit people who had been skiing were the primary victims. It also helps in Germany with Roche being a major test manufacturer and i would bet some money that those tests are being prioritised for Germans.surrey_commuter said:
Germany has 30% more people and less than half the deaths.Pross said:
I'm not sure what Germany are doing but the last comparison graph I saw was suggesting it wasn't working any better than our approach. here are very few countries whose graph are significantly better than ours (Japan and South Korea being the obvious exceptions though there was some talk that Japan were massaging the figures to try to avoid the Olympics getting postponed). Yes, we had the benefit of two weeks learning from Italy that we could have made better use of and yes the Government seem to be royally censored up the distribution of PPE and testing kits but I'm not seeing many other countries delivering better outcomes.rick_chasey said:
Herd immunity is a short-hand for doing SFA, not to be taken literally.haydenm said:Are you suggesting we remove all restrictions and achieve herd immunity? Because my point is that looks like the general approach we are going for, just with a ceiling on the transmission rate to try and keep the NHS operating in the meantime. A slight relaxing of the rules in a month or two with the use of technology to help people know if they are likely to get sick could happen. Just because they are trying to slow the spread doesn't mean we aren't going for some sort of herd immunity surely?
It is the opposite approach to what the Koreans and the Germans are doing.
We have the 7th highest number of deaths in the world so I am not sure of your definition of acceptable outcome.
If we had tried to mitigate it with preparation in the three main areas then more people would be alive, less people would be scared, the economy less fvcked with a chance of faster recovery. So no I will not be joining you in giving the Govt a hearty slap on the back.
I would suggest waiting a bit longer to see the comparison as there does not appear to be a medical reason to suppory the difference.0 -
What is your plan then?pangolin said:
This plan is comical.coopster_the_1st said:
Cool. you are demonstrating you understand herd immutity. There are plenty of others on here that don't.haydenm said:Are you suggesting we remove all restrictions and achieve herd immunity? Because my point is that looks like the general approach we are going for, just with a ceiling on the transmission rate to try and keep the NHS operating in the meantime. A slight relaxing of the rules in a month or two with the use of technology to help people know if they are likely to get sick could happen. Just because they are trying to slow the spread doesn't mean we aren't going for some sort of herd immunity surely?
People are going to die from C19 anyway and herd immunity needs to happen sooner rather than later.
We cannot turn down and then turn up the lockdown over the next 12+ months as the economy will die before that from the uncertainty caused.
So we need a much more agressive approach to getting herd immunity, particularly among the young.
So I would bring schools and universities back for anyone who does not have an old or vulnerable person living at home with them after Easter.
Then unlock the under 30's, then under 40's, etc, under the same rules as above, thus allowing businesses to start to re-open.
All the while doing our best to maintain the 2m social distancing that we currently have. No travel on any public transport unless you are a critical or key worker.
If you are old and/or vulnerable and decide to unlock yourself before your advised time the risk is on you but don't expect a hospital bed for you if you require it.
Most students wouldn't be able to go back to school or uni. Do classes just proceed for those who can and those who can't get put back a year? Do they do everything remote + physical till everyone is back? Not workable.
Same goes for 30's and 40's lots of people will be unable to return to work.
If enough can return to work, the 2m rule goes out the window.
Loads will be expected to return to work but unable to get there because you've banned them from public transport.
And if you are 'old and/or vulnerable' and do get sick you what - refuse them entry to a hospital? Who decides what vulnerable is?
Currently the 12+ month vaccine will arrive before herd immunity and if we wait that long there will be no economy for the UK to afford paying for the vaccine.0 -
I haven't seen one of the graphs posted recently but the last one I saw (admittedly it was getting too congested to be able to make much sense of) suggested the curves for virtually all the European countries were on a similar trajectory. Maybe Germany has slowed since then although people seem to use whatever statistics suit their case best on these thing, those graphs were based on total deaths rather than deaths per head of population and it is also based on time since the 10th recorded death.surrey_commuter said:
Germany has 30% more people and less than half the deaths.Pross said:
I'm not sure what Germany are doing but the last comparison graph I saw was suggesting it wasn't working any better than our approach. here are very few countries whose graph are significantly better than ours (Japan and South Korea being the obvious exceptions though there was some talk that Japan were massaging the figures to try to avoid the Olympics getting postponed). Yes, we had the benefit of two weeks learning from Italy that we could have made better use of and yes the Government seem to be royally censored up the distribution of PPE and testing kits but I'm not seeing many other countries delivering better outcomes.rick_chasey said:
Herd immunity is a short-hand for doing SFA, not to be taken literally.haydenm said:Are you suggesting we remove all restrictions and achieve herd immunity? Because my point is that looks like the general approach we are going for, just with a ceiling on the transmission rate to try and keep the NHS operating in the meantime. A slight relaxing of the rules in a month or two with the use of technology to help people know if they are likely to get sick could happen. Just because they are trying to slow the spread doesn't mean we aren't going for some sort of herd immunity surely?
It is the opposite approach to what the Koreans and the Germans are doing.
We have the 7th highest number of deaths in the world so I am not sure of your definition of acceptable outcome.
If we had tried to mitigate it with preparation in the three main areas then more people would be alive, less people would be scared, the economy less fvcked with a chance of faster recovery. So no I will not be joining you in giving the Govt a hearty slap on the back.
I'm not sure where in my post I'm advocating giving the Government a hearty slap on the back, maybe you interpreted it in my comment that we could have made better use of the 2 week head start Italy gave us or that they have royally fucked up delivery of PPE and testing kits? Strangely the main place I'm seeing people being scared is on here, maybe that's down to this being my main exposure to views of folk with connections to London. I'm seeing concern and worry (though mainly in relation to jobs) and share that. I just really don't see it being a substantially better situation anywhere in Europe0 -
It was Italy plus 15 days, now 16 because the UK put in a short day.coopster_the_1st said:
The people who were using the chart to say the UK is 14 days behind Italy are also saying from the same chart that Germany is 5 days behind the UKPross said:
I'm not sure what Germany are doing but the last comparison graph I saw was suggesting it wasn't working any better than our approach. here are very few countries whose graph are significantly better than ours (Japan and South Korea being the obvious exceptions though there was some talk that Japan were massaging the figures to try to avoid the Olympics getting postponed). Yes, we had the benefit of two weeks learning from Italy that we could have made better use of and yes the Government seem to be royally censored up the distribution of PPE and testing kits but I'm not seeing many other countries delivering better outcomes.rick_chasey said:
Herd immunity is a short-hand for doing SFA, not to be taken literally.haydenm said:Are you suggesting we remove all restrictions and achieve herd immunity? Because my point is that looks like the general approach we are going for, just with a ceiling on the transmission rate to try and keep the NHS operating in the meantime. A slight relaxing of the rules in a month or two with the use of technology to help people know if they are likely to get sick could happen. Just because they are trying to slow the spread doesn't mean we aren't going for some sort of herd immunity surely?
It is the opposite approach to what the Koreans and the Germans are doing.
Last few equivalent days' totals:
Italy: 1016, 1266, 1441, 1809
UK: 1019, 1228, 1408, 1789
If the UK numbers keep following the same path, we're over 10,000 in 11 days from today. Our lockdown went in a couple of days earlier in the spread than Italy's, so hopefully that has an effect.0 -
Sounds very Dutch 😉focuszing723 said:I would like to hear the full context of that conversation, but yeah it does sound rather direct.
1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
We would be able to move forward with a solution to this once we are past the 'national outrage' that 10's of thousands of people are going to die.kingstongraham said:
It was Italy plus 15 days, now 16 because the UK put in a short day.coopster_the_1st said:
The people who were using the chart to say the UK is 14 days behind Italy are also saying from the same chart that Germany is 5 days behind the UKPross said:
I'm not sure what Germany are doing but the last comparison graph I saw was suggesting it wasn't working any better than our approach. here are very few countries whose graph are significantly better than ours (Japan and South Korea being the obvious exceptions though there was some talk that Japan were massaging the figures to try to avoid the Olympics getting postponed). Yes, we had the benefit of two weeks learning from Italy that we could have made better use of and yes the Government seem to be royally censored up the distribution of PPE and testing kits but I'm not seeing many other countries delivering better outcomes.rick_chasey said:
Herd immunity is a short-hand for doing SFA, not to be taken literally.haydenm said:Are you suggesting we remove all restrictions and achieve herd immunity? Because my point is that looks like the general approach we are going for, just with a ceiling on the transmission rate to try and keep the NHS operating in the meantime. A slight relaxing of the rules in a month or two with the use of technology to help people know if they are likely to get sick could happen. Just because they are trying to slow the spread doesn't mean we aren't going for some sort of herd immunity surely?
It is the opposite approach to what the Koreans and the Germans are doing.
Last few equivalent days' totals:
Italy: 1016, 1266, 1441, 1809
UK: 1019, 1228, 1408, 1789
If the UK numbers keep following the same path, we're over 10,000 in 11 days from today. Our lockdown went in a couple of days earlier in the spread than Italy's, so hopefully that has an effect.
This is the reality and where I have advocated being pragmatic about what is going to happen.0 -
Mate, the economy - such as it was - is toast anyway. This is all going on the national credit card. I'd have far more faith in firms finding new ways to do business than just partly lifting the restrictions and magically expecting the economy to spring back into life.coopster_the_1st said:
What is your plan then?pangolin said:
This plan is comical.coopster_the_1st said:
Cool. you are demonstrating you understand herd immutity. There are plenty of others on here that don't.haydenm said:Are you suggesting we remove all restrictions and achieve herd immunity? Because my point is that looks like the general approach we are going for, just with a ceiling on the transmission rate to try and keep the NHS operating in the meantime. A slight relaxing of the rules in a month or two with the use of technology to help people know if they are likely to get sick could happen. Just because they are trying to slow the spread doesn't mean we aren't going for some sort of herd immunity surely?
People are going to die from C19 anyway and herd immunity needs to happen sooner rather than later.
We cannot turn down and then turn up the lockdown over the next 12+ months as the economy will die before that from the uncertainty caused.
So we need a much more agressive approach to getting herd immunity, particularly among the young.
So I would bring schools and universities back for anyone who does not have an old or vulnerable person living at home with them after Easter.
Then unlock the under 30's, then under 40's, etc, under the same rules as above, thus allowing businesses to start to re-open.
All the while doing our best to maintain the 2m social distancing that we currently have. No travel on any public transport unless you are a critical or key worker.
If you are old and/or vulnerable and decide to unlock yourself before your advised time the risk is on you but don't expect a hospital bed for you if you require it.
Most students wouldn't be able to go back to school or uni. Do classes just proceed for those who can and those who can't get put back a year? Do they do everything remote + physical till everyone is back? Not workable.
Same goes for 30's and 40's lots of people will be unable to return to work.
If enough can return to work, the 2m rule goes out the window.
Loads will be expected to return to work but unable to get there because you've banned them from public transport.
And if you are 'old and/or vulnerable' and do get sick you what - refuse them entry to a hospital? Who decides what vulnerable is?
Currently the 12+ month vaccine will arrive before herd immunity and if we wait that long there will be no economy for the UK to afford paying for the vaccine.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
I think that the way each country is testing (and reporting in some cases) will account for a lot of differences in the stats. As has been said above, we may need to wait for longer to get a better picture.Pross said:
I haven't seen one of the graphs posted recently but the last one I saw (admittedly it was getting too congested to be able to make much sense of) suggested the curves for virtually all the European countries were on a similar trajectory. Maybe Germany has slowed since then although people seem to use whatever statistics suit their case best on these thing, those graphs were based on total deaths rather than deaths per head of population and it is also based on time since the 10th recorded death.surrey_commuter said:
Germany has 30% more people and less than half the deaths.Pross said:
I'm not sure what Germany are doing but the last comparison graph I saw was suggesting it wasn't working any better than our approach. here are very few countries whose graph are significantly better than ours (Japan and South Korea being the obvious exceptions though there was some talk that Japan were massaging the figures to try to avoid the Olympics getting postponed). Yes, we had the benefit of two weeks learning from Italy that we could have made better use of and yes the Government seem to be royally censored up the distribution of PPE and testing kits but I'm not seeing many other countries delivering better outcomes.rick_chasey said:
Herd immunity is a short-hand for doing SFA, not to be taken literally.haydenm said:Are you suggesting we remove all restrictions and achieve herd immunity? Because my point is that looks like the general approach we are going for, just with a ceiling on the transmission rate to try and keep the NHS operating in the meantime. A slight relaxing of the rules in a month or two with the use of technology to help people know if they are likely to get sick could happen. Just because they are trying to slow the spread doesn't mean we aren't going for some sort of herd immunity surely?
It is the opposite approach to what the Koreans and the Germans are doing.
We have the 7th highest number of deaths in the world so I am not sure of your definition of acceptable outcome.
If we had tried to mitigate it with preparation in the three main areas then more people would be alive, less people would be scared, the economy less fvcked with a chance of faster recovery. So no I will not be joining you in giving the Govt a hearty slap on the back.
I'm not sure where in my post I'm advocating giving the Government a hearty slap on the back, maybe you interpreted it in my comment that we could have made better use of the 2 week head start Italy gave us or that they have royally censored up delivery of PPE and testing kits? Strangely the main place I'm seeing people being scared is on here, maybe that's down to this being my main exposure to views of folk with connections to London. I'm seeing concern and worry (though mainly in relation to jobs) and share that. I just really don't see it being a substantially better situation anywhere in Europe
However in the meantime, there are enough stats out there for those with the desire to make unfavourable comparisons with other countries. Now imagine the reaction on here if we had the same stats as (say) Italy or Spain now..."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
If it does go as badly as some in the Lancet are predicting, I wouldn't be surprised if the the NHS doesn't survive it intact.
If it can't protect its own staff, let alone patients, it is not fit for purpose.0 -
I get what you're saying but I don't think there is a proper way out until there is a vaccine, until that point some sort of phased slackening of restrictions would help to get things running again where possible whilst remaining under the NHS limit. A system of antibody testing for people who think they have had it would help to give people clarity.coopster_the_1st said:
What is your plan then?pangolin said:
This plan is comical.coopster_the_1st said:
Cool. you are demonstrating you understand herd immutity. There are plenty of others on here that don't.haydenm said:Are you suggesting we remove all restrictions and achieve herd immunity? Because my point is that looks like the general approach we are going for, just with a ceiling on the transmission rate to try and keep the NHS operating in the meantime. A slight relaxing of the rules in a month or two with the use of technology to help people know if they are likely to get sick could happen. Just because they are trying to slow the spread doesn't mean we aren't going for some sort of herd immunity surely?
People are going to die from C19 anyway and herd immunity needs to happen sooner rather than later.
We cannot turn down and then turn up the lockdown over the next 12+ months as the economy will die before that from the uncertainty caused.
So we need a much more agressive approach to getting herd immunity, particularly among the young.
So I would bring schools and universities back for anyone who does not have an old or vulnerable person living at home with them after Easter.
Then unlock the under 30's, then under 40's, etc, under the same rules as above, thus allowing businesses to start to re-open.
All the while doing our best to maintain the 2m social distancing that we currently have. No travel on any public transport unless you are a critical or key worker.
If you are old and/or vulnerable and decide to unlock yourself before your advised time the risk is on you but don't expect a hospital bed for you if you require it.
Most students wouldn't be able to go back to school or uni. Do classes just proceed for those who can and those who can't get put back a year? Do they do everything remote + physical till everyone is back? Not workable.
Same goes for 30's and 40's lots of people will be unable to return to work.
If enough can return to work, the 2m rule goes out the window.
Loads will be expected to return to work but unable to get there because you've banned them from public transport.
And if you are 'old and/or vulnerable' and do get sick you what - refuse them entry to a hospital? Who decides what vulnerable is?
Currently the 12+ month vaccine will arrive before herd immunity and if we wait that long there will be no economy for the UK to afford paying for the vaccine.
I don't think there is a simple plan and what they are doing currently seems to be inline with what I suggested above0 -
There's a difference between accepting that 10s of thousands will die regardless of our actions, and accepting that it's worth doing less to slow the spread and allow additional 10s of thousands to die. One is pragmatic, the other is callous.coopster_the_1st said:
We would be able to move forward with a solution to this once we are past the 'national outrage' that 10's of thousands of people are going to die.kingstongraham said:
It was Italy plus 15 days, now 16 because the UK put in a short day.coopster_the_1st said:
The people who were using the chart to say the UK is 14 days behind Italy are also saying from the same chart that Germany is 5 days behind the UKPross said:
I'm not sure what Germany are doing but the last comparison graph I saw was suggesting it wasn't working any better than our approach. here are very few countries whose graph are significantly better than ours (Japan and South Korea being the obvious exceptions though there was some talk that Japan were massaging the figures to try to avoid the Olympics getting postponed). Yes, we had the benefit of two weeks learning from Italy that we could have made better use of and yes the Government seem to be royally censored up the distribution of PPE and testing kits but I'm not seeing many other countries delivering better outcomes.rick_chasey said:
Herd immunity is a short-hand for doing SFA, not to be taken literally.haydenm said:Are you suggesting we remove all restrictions and achieve herd immunity? Because my point is that looks like the general approach we are going for, just with a ceiling on the transmission rate to try and keep the NHS operating in the meantime. A slight relaxing of the rules in a month or two with the use of technology to help people know if they are likely to get sick could happen. Just because they are trying to slow the spread doesn't mean we aren't going for some sort of herd immunity surely?
It is the opposite approach to what the Koreans and the Germans are doing.
Last few equivalent days' totals:
Italy: 1016, 1266, 1441, 1809
UK: 1019, 1228, 1408, 1789
If the UK numbers keep following the same path, we're over 10,000 in 11 days from today. Our lockdown went in a couple of days earlier in the spread than Italy's, so hopefully that has an effect.
This is the reality and where I have advocated being pragmatic about what is going to happen.0 -
US Centers for Disease Control is thinking about change its stance on face masks. The western attitude to this has been annoying. The government really need to start getting companies to make them quite some time ago.0
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coopster_the_1st said:
We would be able to move forward with a solution to this once we are past the 'national outrage' that 10's of thousands of people are going to die.
This is the reality and where I have advocated being pragmatic about what is going to happen.
Your plan won't limit the death toll to 10's of thousands
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
focuszing723 said:
I would like to hear the full context of that conversation, but yeah it does sound rather direct.
To be honest I don’t know how the conversation came about between the father in law and his GP, I only know what my wife has told me. She’s pretty upset by it all, understandably
And yes, it is rather direct, which funnily enough is a trait the Dutch pride themselves on.0 -
I read something about if the numbers projected in the US are vaguely accurate you would need to make billions in a matter of weeks.TheBigBean said:US Centers for Disease Control is thinking about change its stance on face masks. The western attitude to this has been annoying. The government really need to start getting companies to make them quite some time ago.
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Rick is unusually quiet on the way the Dutch are doing things whilst acting as though the UK response is the worst in Europe.ddraver said:See also the surgery in S. Wales who tried to persuade similar people to sign pre-emptive DNRs...
The Netherlands have certainly taken an interesting approach...2 -
I don't know anything about the Dutch response, but I do know their behaviour in the EU is shameful and they should be given a firm smack behind closed doors.Pross said:
Rick is unusually quiet on the way the Dutch are doing things whilst acting as though the UK response is the worst in Europe.ddraver said:See also the surgery in S. Wales who tried to persuade similar people to sign pre-emptive DNRs...
The Netherlands have certainly taken an interesting approach...
I do know there is a culture around quality of end-of-life and there are endless discussions about the perils of living too long or living with terrible health, and they are more fatalistic about their life than in the UK, so the idea of a Dr telling an 80 yr old man the above is not an enormous shock to me.
I have no idea if they're any better than the UK. I suspect on a very basic level, Netherlands, Scandis etc, have less poverty and so are naturally a little healthier on balance, but who knows.0 -
Well yes, the UK could do with a billion or so, but that might ease some lock down requirements, so could pay for itself.rick_chasey said:
I read something about if the numbers projected in the US are vaguely accurate you would need to make billions in a matter of weeks.TheBigBean said:US Centers for Disease Control is thinking about change its stance on face masks. The western attitude to this has been annoying. The government really need to start getting companies to make them quite some time ago.
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haydenm said:
74 confirmed cases. Obviously that is going to be lower than the actual but it's irrelevant if suppression brings the number under control. It doesn't sound like much but a small change in the rules changes people's daily lives significantly, if we want to make the 'flattening the peak' method work long term then people will need this sort of thing. This is the model we are working to and the model most experts thing is best currently. Letting thousands of people die just isn't on the agenda as much as you want it to be.coopster_the_1st said:
Where do you get the less than 100 cases in your county data from?haydenm said:
I just suggested ways out, I wasn't really criticising herd immunity either (although loads of people will die).coopster_the_1st said:
OK. Then how does contact tracing work in this case. This is for Haydenm.tailwindhome said:coopster_the_1st said:
I am reading aspriations, not solutions.haydenm said:
Trace and test using that app they have in Singapore. Or some sort of regular, population wide testing and certification scheme. Or a vaccine.coopster_the_1st said:To all those criticising herd immunity, what is your solution to unwinding the lockdown without a large percentage of the population being immune to the disease?
How would you test 65m people? All of them weekly? Only when they report symptoms?
Let's take situation with TWH. How many people would be needed to track and trace the people his wife has been into contact with in the last 7 days?
Vaccine is 12+ months away. Only this of your suggestions moves us out of the lockdown
She has been working from home since 20th March
Hasn't left the house
Now needs to be spread out to the rest of your household.
Let's say one of you has visited a supermarket. How do you trace all the people you have crossed that were in the supermarket at the time?
Or let's take a nurse gets C19. How does the contact tracing work with that? All the patients and NHS staff in the hospital?
It's it not workable when the virus is spread as wide as it is now
The whole point of the social isolating and keeping everyone in the household at home is to make it easier. I'm not sure we will ever get there but I think the idea with suppressing it is to get to the point where you can track and trace. Again, look at the app they are using in Singapore (which they are considering here) which automatically records who you have been in close contact with then alerts everyone in the chain if someone tests positive.
https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/03/30/technology/30reuters-health-coronavirus-germany-tech.html
I live in a pretty rural area with less than 100 cases in the county, if everyone outside of the high risk category used that app it is conceivable that I'd be able to go outside again...
How can this data be accurate now the virus is widespread when the testing is not taking place?
I'm going to guess roughly 1m infections in the UK based on doubling every 3 days and testing and contact tracing can in now way keep up with even a fraction of those numbershaydenm said:
74 confirmed cases. Obviously that is going to be lower than the actual but it's irrelevant if suppression brings the number under control. It doesn't sound like much but a small change in the rules changes people's daily lives significantly, if we want to make the 'flattening the peak' method work long term then people will need this sort of thing. This is the model we are working to and the model most experts thing is best currently. Letting thousands of people die just isn't on the agenda as much as you want it to be.coopster_the_1st said:
Where do you get the less than 100 cases in your county data from?haydenm said:
I just suggested ways out, I wasn't really criticising herd immunity either (although loads of people will die).coopster_the_1st said:
OK. Then how does contact tracing work in this case. This is for Haydenm.tailwindhome said:coopster_the_1st said:
I am reading aspriations, not solutions.haydenm said:
Trace and test using that app they have in Singapore. Or some sort of regular, population wide testing and certification scheme. Or a vaccine.coopster_the_1st said:To all those criticising herd immunity, what is your solution to unwinding the lockdown without a large percentage of the population being immune to the disease?
How would you test 65m people? All of them weekly? Only when they report symptoms?
Let's take situation with TWH. How many people would be needed to track and trace the people his wife has been into contact with in the last 7 days?
Vaccine is 12+ months away. Only this of your suggestions moves us out of the lockdown
She has been working from home since 20th March
Hasn't left the house
Now needs to be spread out to the rest of your household.
Let's say one of you has visited a supermarket. How do you trace all the people you have crossed that were in the supermarket at the time?
Or let's take a nurse gets C19. How does the contact tracing work with that? All the patients and NHS staff in the hospital?
It's it not workable when the virus is spread as wide as it is now
The whole point of the social isolating and keeping everyone in the household at home is to make it easier. I'm not sure we will ever get there but I think the idea with suppressing it is to get to the point where you can track and trace. Again, look at the app they are using in Singapore (which they are considering here) which automatically records who you have been in close contact with then alerts everyone in the chain if someone tests positive.
https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/03/30/technology/30reuters-health-coronavirus-germany-tech.html
I live in a pretty rural area with less than 100 cases in the county, if everyone outside of the high risk category used that app it is conceivable that I'd be able to go outside again...
How can this data be accurate now the virus is widespread when the testing is not taking place?
I'm going to guess roughly 1m infections in the UK based on doubling every 3 days and testing and contact tracing can in now way keep up with even a fraction of those numbers
260 cases in Somerset (54), Devon (125), Cornwall and The Isles of Scilly (81) combined (total population approaching 2,000,000).
Personally, I know of no-one who has had even mild symptoms.0 -
Yes, I can understand that. Coincidentally my fantastic Mum had a call from a nurse at the local GP. She asked if she was still able to walk OK, get food, generally look after herself. It made her a touch annoyed (with good humour), at being treated as old and vunerable.kingstonian said:focuszing723 said:I would like to hear the full context of that conversation, but yeah it does sound rather direct.
To be honest I don’t know how the conversation came about between the father in law and his GP, I only know what my wife has told me. She’s pretty upset by it all, understandably
And yes, it is rather direct, which funnily enough is a trait the Dutch pride themselves on.
People forget the appearance changes, but the person inside doesn't. Someone who incidentally spent their whole career nursing people of all ages, backgrounds and social standing.
I'm pretty sure if a little poll was conducted people would be overwhelmingly in support of the NHS.0 -
If industry can knock up 20,000 ventilators I would imagine face masks shouldn't be too much of a problem given enough time. The first stage is accepting that they can reduce transmission,rick_chasey said:It's not so much the money as the logistics.
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I am reminded of Hawkin's computerised voice.
By the time he died, it was massively out of date, it didn't work properly, it was slow and although it eventually got the work done, compared to modern versions it was pretty rubbish.
But he'd grown fond of it and it was part of his identity and ultimately, it was still the one thing that was between him and talking, so he kept it.
I sort of feel the NHS is the same. Everyone likes the idea of it, but realises when they're in it it just lets everyone down. Staff, patients, everyone. I cannot think of a time I've been in hospital where people think it's run well. Staff, patients, they all agree it's a shambles when you're there.
But you don't want to seem ungrateful because there will be times it's the only thing between you and death, and the staff work so hard for peanuts. Now that's even more acute; they're having their own health put at even greater risk because the NHS can't get their sh!t together regarding their kit.
That's bad, it's not good.0
