The big Coronavirus thread
Comments
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There will be gigantic job loss and house prices will absolutely tank.haydenm said:
It'll be interesting from a 'normal' person's point of view. Admittedly this is probably wishful thinking but provided people don't die or lose their jobs en masse (thanks to the NHS and government schemes), interest rates stay ridiculously low, businesses remain viable and potentially house prices drop the impact might not feel as bad as previous recessions. Maybe a reward for sacrificing all our old people. I'll let the OH know, that'll take the pain out of losing her granddad at the weekend.rick_chasey said:
Current estimates recon it'll be about twice as bad as the GFC with a 4-5 year recovery.Jeremy.89 said:
I think the economic impact will be, to say the least, interesting. The figures will undoubtedly look very grim, but from my perspective effectively hitting pause on large sections of the world economy is quite different from a typical economic downturn. There was lots of talk that there were investments that were just waiting on clarity on brexit to go through. Well this time there are many more business and personal spending opportunities that are just waiting on lockdown ending.surrey_commuter said:
If you mean graduate recruitment schemes then you have no idea how massive the negative impact on our economy is going to be. I doubt they or football come in the top 1,000 reasons of when to reverse lockdown.Jeremy.89 said:
Graduate schemes. The premier league contributes (a lot) more to GDP than fishing, and football is pretty important socially to a massive number of people. Ultimately I think the health of the nation would be improved by some semblance of normality, even if sport is trivial...surrey_commuter said:
Not sure what grad schemes are but you are definitely over-estimating the importance of sport.Jeremy.89 said:
I don't think the straight up herd immunity policy really stands up to any scrutiny. However, I think the timings of our lockdown have worked reasonably, although we'll have to wait for a while to really know one way or the other.surrey_commuter said:
I disagree it looked terrible at the time. To misquote TBB if only they knew more than him they would have done so much better and all he had was a small box that allowed him to see two weeks into the future.rick_chasey said:In hindsight, how on earth was the gov't going to do 'herd immunity' without any testing?
The response until about March 15th in hindsight looks absolutely terrible.
I would set September up as a month to work towards for lots of things, school university grad schemes and sport.
That doesn't mean I don't think things should go on in the meantime, finishing off the Premier league behind closed doors would seem sensible, so long as the lockdown is giving results, and so long as there are plenty of anti body tests flying about.
Having said all that, I'm not keen when politicians/Toby Youngs talk about setting precise dates on these things.
At the moment we are probably hovering over whether we need a stricter lockdown before we start unwinding it which will be reversal of the previous process
How does a reversal of the previous process go? When are people who are capable of working from home going to feel happy to go back in to the office? Many employers take their duty of care pretty seriously nowadays too.
I agree that the private sector took the lead on lockdown so will not be rushed back. When you see the numbers of TFL workers not turning up it is a reminder how workshy the average British worker is.
So the worst since the depression.0 -
Good luck...!tailwindhome said:Yeah, so I think the virus may have made it's way into our household.
Mrs TWH complaining 2 days ago of a general feeling of fatigue. Nothing really more than that. No temperature. Felt like a hangover. The occasional cough.
Yesterday she felt fine, then last night the coughing became more frequent and she feels like censored today. Up and about, working from home but feeling ropey.
So we have to assume it is CV and the key thing for us is to delay the spread around the house and self isolate to keep it within the house.
Avoid iboprufen!0 -
What's the chances of me being able to get some Prozac? I mean, I've got concerns and worries about health of family members and job security as much as the next person but jeez Rick's negativity is bringing me down!0
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Just to add to this. There is a figure that is used when doing cost benefit analysis on infrastructure investments, well at least for Highways England and Network Rail. I used to work on engineering policy in NR quite a few years back and my job was to do cost benefit analyses on strategic engineering decisions. e.g. if we extended the parapet on every overbridge we could save x amount of lives and it would cost £y. In those the VPN or value of preventing a fatality was £1.6 million (for a single life, it changes for multiple fatalities). I think its more like £1.9 million now.rick_chasey said:
Which person in your family would you give up for the good of the economy?coopster_the_1st said:
The National Institute for Clinical Excellence (NICE) put an upper band of £30,000 on the cost of adding one quality-adjusted life year (Qaly).Jeremy.89 said:To be fair to the newspapers. There is only one news story on atm and they have a whole paper to fill!
The whole right wing deliberately contrarian opinion article is pretty standard fare and pretty tedious. Expecting them to do a fair cost benefit analysis (I.e one that includes the cost of preventable deaths as a cost of opening up our economy again) is simply expecting too much within a short article.
I do think that there could be more emphasis on just how bad letting covid run riot would be from an economic pov (as well as a human pov) though.
Even Diane Abbott and her maths can see we blown this figure away.
And this does not take account of the life years list of the 99.5% who have to pick up the pieces0 -
My anecdotal survey of the public is that the lockdown should be much more severe than now rather than the 'let all the old people die' approach, the argument against that is that the lockdown needs to be sustainable for the sake of public sanity but also business. There is already the beginnings of civil disobedience in Italy. The current UK position is very finely balanced and only time will tell if it works.coopster_the_1st said:
It is 'interesting', as you put it, now!Jeremy.89 said:
I think the economic impact will be, to say the least, interesting. The figures will undoubtedly look very grim, but from my perspective effectively hitting pause on large sections of the world economy is quite different from a typical economic downturn. There was lots of talk that there were investments that were just waiting on clarity on brexit to go through. Well this time there are many more business and personal spending opportunities that are just waiting on lockdown ending.surrey_commuter said:
If you mean graduate recruitment schemes then you have no idea how massive the negative impact on our economy is going to be. I doubt they or football come in the top 1,000 reasons of when to reverse lockdown.Jeremy.89 said:
Graduate schemes. The premier league contributes (a lot) more to GDP than fishing, and football is pretty important socially to a massive number of people. Ultimately I think the health of the nation would be improved by some semblance of normality, even if sport is trivial...surrey_commuter said:
Not sure what grad schemes are but you are definitely over-estimating the importance of sport.Jeremy.89 said:
I don't think the straight up herd immunity policy really stands up to any scrutiny. However, I think the timings of our lockdown have worked reasonably, although we'll have to wait for a while to really know one way or the other.surrey_commuter said:
I disagree it looked terrible at the time. To misquote TBB if only they knew more than him they would have done so much better and all he had was a small box that allowed him to see two weeks into the future.rick_chasey said:In hindsight, how on earth was the gov't going to do 'herd immunity' without any testing?
The response until about March 15th in hindsight looks absolutely terrible.
I would set September up as a month to work towards for lots of things, school university grad schemes and sport.
That doesn't mean I don't think things should go on in the meantime, finishing off the Premier league behind closed doors would seem sensible, so long as the lockdown is giving results, and so long as there are plenty of anti body tests flying about.
Having said all that, I'm not keen when politicians/Toby Youngs talk about setting precise dates on these things.
At the moment we are probably hovering over whether we need a stricter lockdown before we start unwinding it which will be reversal of the previous process
How does a reversal of the previous process go? When are people who are capable of working from home going to feel happy to go back in to the office? Many employers take their duty of care pretty seriously nowadays too.
I agree that the private sector took the lead on lockdown so will not be rushed back. When you see the numbers of TFL workers not turning up it is a reminder how workshy the average British worker is.
All these furloughed now are at high risk of losing their jobs as the business may not be there in 3 months time. Even if the business does survive, do you think they will be transacting as much business as before this? That means less employees needed.
Add to that businesses are driven by making a profit, and they are unlikely make this year, will cut the workforce to get back to a profit making business. Middle management and the boots on the ground at highest risk here.
Let's take restaurants. Do you think the country will return to eating out as much when this is over especially as the population is belt tightening? No, so another gap created in the economy.
We are currently in a servere contraction and once the downward spiral starts it is very hard to stop. It's not like businesses were flush with cash before this, many were surviving because of historically cheap debt.
Seem to have a very negative view of the economic impact on here, I don't think I share that view just yet but I wouldn't be surprised either way. I think the general uk fundamentals will be strong after this, there will be losses in some sectors but massive 'success' stories for certain businesses I'm sure0 -
They did it reasonably successfully initially, but they did it the hard way by asking everyone who was infected and these people presumably consented. Ultimately, too many people went on holiday to Italy for half-term.Pross said:
I can imagine the whingeing in respect of our 'civil rights' in the country if the Government tried to find out who we had been in contact with would be higher than those complaining about the impact the lockdown is having on our freedom.TheBigBean said:Whilst I can see merit in testing of key workers, so that they don't need to isolate themselves, and in testing samples of the population, I am still not convinced that much can be gained by testing everybody else. It's not like early medical intervention has an impact nor is it possible any more to have teams doing track and trace.
Worth noting that Korea does track and trace and isn't in lock down. The UK has chosen lock down.
Korea uses an app that tracks movement of everyone which is quite invasive from a civil liberties point of view. They also use face masks.
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Fingers crossed it's nothing and it'll pass.rick_chasey said:
Good luck...!tailwindhome said:Yeah, so I think the virus may have made it's way into our household.
Mrs TWH complaining 2 days ago of a general feeling of fatigue. Nothing really more than that. No temperature. Felt like a hangover. The occasional cough.
Yesterday she felt fine, then last night the coughing became more frequent and she feels like censored today. Up and about, working from home but feeling ropey.
So we have to assume it is CV and the key thing for us is to delay the spread around the house and self isolate to keep it within the house.
Avoid iboprufen!
On the plus side I got 2 packs of iced fingers in the shop last night
I don't think they're essentials but **** the peelers.
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
You're probably right...rick_chasey said:
There will be gigantic job loss and house prices will absolutely tank.haydenm said:
It'll be interesting from a 'normal' person's point of view. Admittedly this is probably wishful thinking but provided people don't die or lose their jobs en masse (thanks to the NHS and government schemes), interest rates stay ridiculously low, businesses remain viable and potentially house prices drop the impact might not feel as bad as previous recessions. Maybe a reward for sacrificing all our old people. I'll let the OH know, that'll take the pain out of losing her granddad at the weekend.rick_chasey said:
Current estimates recon it'll be about twice as bad as the GFC with a 4-5 year recovery.Jeremy.89 said:
I think the economic impact will be, to say the least, interesting. The figures will undoubtedly look very grim, but from my perspective effectively hitting pause on large sections of the world economy is quite different from a typical economic downturn. There was lots of talk that there were investments that were just waiting on clarity on brexit to go through. Well this time there are many more business and personal spending opportunities that are just waiting on lockdown ending.surrey_commuter said:
If you mean graduate recruitment schemes then you have no idea how massive the negative impact on our economy is going to be. I doubt they or football come in the top 1,000 reasons of when to reverse lockdown.Jeremy.89 said:
Graduate schemes. The premier league contributes (a lot) more to GDP than fishing, and football is pretty important socially to a massive number of people. Ultimately I think the health of the nation would be improved by some semblance of normality, even if sport is trivial...surrey_commuter said:
Not sure what grad schemes are but you are definitely over-estimating the importance of sport.Jeremy.89 said:
I don't think the straight up herd immunity policy really stands up to any scrutiny. However, I think the timings of our lockdown have worked reasonably, although we'll have to wait for a while to really know one way or the other.surrey_commuter said:
I disagree it looked terrible at the time. To misquote TBB if only they knew more than him they would have done so much better and all he had was a small box that allowed him to see two weeks into the future.rick_chasey said:In hindsight, how on earth was the gov't going to do 'herd immunity' without any testing?
The response until about March 15th in hindsight looks absolutely terrible.
I would set September up as a month to work towards for lots of things, school university grad schemes and sport.
That doesn't mean I don't think things should go on in the meantime, finishing off the Premier league behind closed doors would seem sensible, so long as the lockdown is giving results, and so long as there are plenty of anti body tests flying about.
Having said all that, I'm not keen when politicians/Toby Youngs talk about setting precise dates on these things.
At the moment we are probably hovering over whether we need a stricter lockdown before we start unwinding it which will be reversal of the previous process
How does a reversal of the previous process go? When are people who are capable of working from home going to feel happy to go back in to the office? Many employers take their duty of care pretty seriously nowadays too.
I agree that the private sector took the lead on lockdown so will not be rushed back. When you see the numbers of TFL workers not turning up it is a reminder how workshy the average British worker is.
So the worst since the depression.
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How is her sense of smell and taste?tailwindhome said:Yeah, so I think the virus may have made it's way into our household.
Mrs TWH complaining 2 days ago of a general feeling of fatigue. Nothing really more than that. No temperature. Felt like a hangover. The occasional cough.
Yesterday she felt fine, then last night the coughing became more frequent and she feels like censored today. Up and about, working from home but feeling ropey.
So we have to assume it is CV and the key thing for us is to delay the spread around the house and self isolate to keep it within the house.0 -
Yep, that's used in road safety (I believe you are right that it's now £1.9 million) but it takes into account the impact on the economy of delays closing the network etc. rather than the basic cost of losing a human life.elbowloh said:
Just to add to this. There is a figure that is used when doing cost benefit analysis on infrastructure investments, well at least for Highways England and Network Rail. I used to work on engineering policy in NR quite a few years back and my job was to do cost benefit analyses on strategic engineering decisions. e.g. if we extended the parapet on every overbridge we could save x amount of lives and it would cost £y. In those the VPN or value of preventing a fatality was £1.6 million (for a single life, it changes for multiple fatalities). I think its more like £1.9 million now.rick_chasey said:
Which person in your family would you give up for the good of the economy?coopster_the_1st said:
The National Institute for Clinical Excellence (NICE) put an upper band of £30,000 on the cost of adding one quality-adjusted life year (Qaly).Jeremy.89 said:To be fair to the newspapers. There is only one news story on atm and they have a whole paper to fill!
The whole right wing deliberately contrarian opinion article is pretty standard fare and pretty tedious. Expecting them to do a fair cost benefit analysis (I.e one that includes the cost of preventable deaths as a cost of opening up our economy again) is simply expecting too much within a short article.
I do think that there could be more emphasis on just how bad letting covid run riot would be from an economic pov (as well as a human pov) though.
Even Diane Abbott and her maths can see we blown this figure away.
And this does not take account of the life years list of the 99.5% who have to pick up the pieces0 -
Fine.focuszing723 said:
How is her sense of smell and taste?tailwindhome said:Yeah, so I think the virus may have made it's way into our household.
Mrs TWH complaining 2 days ago of a general feeling of fatigue. Nothing really more than that. No temperature. Felt like a hangover. The occasional cough.
Yesterday she felt fine, then last night the coughing became more frequent and she feels like censored today. Up and about, working from home but feeling ropey.
So we have to assume it is CV and the key thing for us is to delay the spread around the house and self isolate to keep it within the house.
I may have to fart occasionally just to test it
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
Don't you have a whole hotel to isolate in?tailwindhome said:
Fingers crossed it's nothing and it'll pass.rick_chasey said:
Good luck...!tailwindhome said:Yeah, so I think the virus may have made it's way into our household.
Mrs TWH complaining 2 days ago of a general feeling of fatigue. Nothing really more than that. No temperature. Felt like a hangover. The occasional cough.
Yesterday she felt fine, then last night the coughing became more frequent and she feels like censored today. Up and about, working from home but feeling ropey.
So we have to assume it is CV and the key thing for us is to delay the spread around the house and self isolate to keep it within the house.
Avoid iboprufen!
On the plus side I got 2 packs of iced fingers in the shop last night
I don't think they're essentials but **** the peelers.
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TheBigBean said:
Don't you have a whole hotel to isolate in?tailwindhome said:
Fingers crossed it's nothing and it'll pass.rick_chasey said:
Good luck...!tailwindhome said:Yeah, so I think the virus may have made it's way into our household.
Mrs TWH complaining 2 days ago of a general feeling of fatigue. Nothing really more than that. No temperature. Felt like a hangover. The occasional cough.
Yesterday she felt fine, then last night the coughing became more frequent and she feels like censored today. Up and about, working from home but feeling ropey.
So we have to assume it is CV and the key thing for us is to delay the spread around the house and self isolate to keep it within the house.
Avoid iboprufen!
On the plus side I got 2 packs of iced fingers in the shop last night
I don't think they're essentials but **** the peelers.
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
The issue I have with that is this wasnt a 'surprise'. It was clear that it was coming and the 'preparation' done by the UK Government was to dither and spout some Domshit* about herd immunity instead of acting like adults about discussions on buying Ventilators, PPE etcPross said:
To be fair, what health system is? Who can afford to have thousands of extra ventilators in storage and, presumably, requiring ongoing maintenance and loads of spare staff trained to ICU requirements but working in other roles on a day-to-day basis just in case a 1:100 year pandemic comes along?
(*I quite like that...I may keep it)
We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
- @ddraver0 -
Ha, well it is April fools day:)tailwindhome said:
Fine.focuszing723 said:
How is her sense of smell and taste?tailwindhome said:Yeah, so I think the virus may have made it's way into our household.
Mrs TWH complaining 2 days ago of a general feeling of fatigue. Nothing really more than that. No temperature. Felt like a hangover. The occasional cough.
Yesterday she felt fine, then last night the coughing became more frequent and she feels like censored today. Up and about, working from home but feeling ropey.
So we have to assume it is CV and the key thing for us is to delay the spread around the house and self isolate to keep it within the house.
I may have to fart occasionally just to test it0 -
To all those criticising herd immunity, what is your solution to unwinding the lockdown without a large percentage of the population being immune to the disease?0
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Shortage of credit was a one off cause. You are correct with a lack of confidence but that can have a number of different causes, oil price hike, political crisis, financial crash, Brexit and now pandemic.Jeremy.89 said:
I think the key difference, and you'll know more than me, is the cause. Usually there is a shortage of credit and a lack of confidence. This all takes time to spread through the system.surrey_commuter said:
Not sure what the difference is between hitting pause and a standard economic downturn as effectively they amount to the same thing. A shock to the system that takes time to recover from.Jeremy.89 said:
I think the economic impact will be, to say the least, interesting. The figures will undoubtedly look very grim, but from my perspective effectively hitting pause on large sections of the world economy is quite different from a typical economic downturn. There was lots of talk that there were investments that were just waiting on clarity on brexit to go through. Well this time there are many more business and personal spending opportunities that are just waiting on lockdown ending.surrey_commuter said:
If you mean graduate recruitment schemes then you have no idea how massive the negative impact on our economy is going to be. I doubt they or football come in the top 1,000 reasons of when to reverse lockdown.Jeremy.89 said:
Graduate schemes. The premier league contributes (a lot) more to GDP than fishing, and football is pretty important socially to a massive number of people. Ultimately I think the health of the nation would be improved by some semblance of normality, even if sport is trivial...surrey_commuter said:
Not sure what grad schemes are but you are definitely over-estimating the importance of sport.Jeremy.89 said:
I don't think the straight up herd immunity policy really stands up to any scrutiny. However, I think the timings of our lockdown have worked reasonably, although we'll have to wait for a while to really know one way or the other.surrey_commuter said:
I disagree it looked terrible at the time. To misquote TBB if only they knew more than him they would have done so much better and all he had was a small box that allowed him to see two weeks into the future.rick_chasey said:In hindsight, how on earth was the gov't going to do 'herd immunity' without any testing?
The response until about March 15th in hindsight looks absolutely terrible.
I would set September up as a month to work towards for lots of things, school university grad schemes and sport.
That doesn't mean I don't think things should go on in the meantime, finishing off the Premier league behind closed doors would seem sensible, so long as the lockdown is giving results, and so long as there are plenty of anti body tests flying about.
Having said all that, I'm not keen when politicians/Toby Youngs talk about setting precise dates on these things.
At the moment we are probably hovering over whether we need a stricter lockdown before we start unwinding it which will be reversal of the previous process
How does a reversal of the previous process go? When are people who are capable of working from home going to feel happy to go back in to the office? Many employers take their duty of care pretty seriously nowadays too.
I agree that the private sector took the lead on lockdown so will not be rushed back. When you see the numbers of TFL workers not turning up it is a reminder how workshy the average British worker is.
We have managed to damage the UK economy and the only thing keeping it out of recession is Govt stimulus. For background I think that Brexit will reduce growth by 0.5% per annum forever.
C19 is (in my opinion) an onrushing economic apocalypse. If UK GDP fell by double digits I would not be surprised (but I don’t think it will)
If you take this forum as a very upmarket straw poll then people are already losing their jobs and having earnings reduced. Anybody who gets away with a pay freeze should celebrate as I would not be surprised if we all earned 20% less next year. There will be a lot of businesses not hear next year and a lot of people unemployed.
These are just my opinions and whilst I am no expert I know more than most due to what I am exposed to in different roles.
As a warning to all those in the know are battening down the hatches and are very wary of who they have exposure to.
This time around a significant amount of economic activity has immediately stopped, not because there isn't the money or (in many cases) desire to do it, but because we want to limit physical exposure to other human beings temporarily. (Further down the line there will be a shortage of money and desire of course).
The shortage of money will have started already. When lockdown ends only the thickos will run out and buy a new car and book a holiday. Most people will plan for the worst and reduce spending.0 -
Trace and test using that app they have in Singapore. Or some sort of regular, population wide testing and certification scheme. Or a vaccine.coopster_the_1st said:To all those criticising herd immunity, what is your solution to unwinding the lockdown without a large percentage of the population being immune to the disease?
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The strategy is to reduce the number of cases through 'supression' to get back to 'test, track and isolate' using the tests that you've developed and mass produced during the lockdown.coopster_the_1st said:To all those criticising herd immunity, what is your solution to unwinding the lockdown without a large percentage of the population being immune to the disease?
Get back to playing whack a mole
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
I am reading aspriations, not solutions.haydenm said:
Trace and test using that app they have in Singapore. Or some sort of regular, population wide testing and certification scheme. Or a vaccine.coopster_the_1st said:To all those criticising herd immunity, what is your solution to unwinding the lockdown without a large percentage of the population being immune to the disease?
How would you test 65m people? All of them weekly? Only when they report symptoms?
Let's take situation with TWH. How many people would be needed to track and trace the people his wife has been into contact with in the last 7 days?
Vaccine is 12+ months away. Only this of your suggestions moves us out of the lockdown0 -
The point is that herd immunity is inevitable whatever measures we take. The virus runs it course. The key is slowing down the "run it's course" bit so that those who can be saved in an ICU bed will have that bed availablecoopster_the_1st said:To all those criticising herd immunity, what is your solution to unwinding the lockdown without a large percentage of the population being immune to the disease?
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The lockdowns would apply when the support services are predicted to be over stressed, then relax when there is enough capacity. More stadiums and similar can be converted to temporary hospitals, akin the the excel centre if required. Meanwhile vaccines are being developed in multiple countries to protect people. This could first be rolled out to the most vunerable groups, cancer patients, diabetics, people who suffer from cardiovascular problems...The elderly.coopster_the_1st said:To all those criticising herd immunity, what is your solution to unwinding the lockdown without a large percentage of the population being immune to the disease?
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I understand this, many on here don't. However we need roughly 42m people to have the virus to get to the herd immunity.mrfpb said:
The point is that herd immunity is inevitable whatever measures we take. The virus runs it course. The key is slowing down the "run it's course" bit so that those who can be saved in an ICU bed will have that bed availablecoopster_the_1st said:To all those criticising herd immunity, what is your solution to unwinding the lockdown without a large percentage of the population being immune to the disease?
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coopster_the_1st said:
I am reading aspriations, not solutions.haydenm said:
Trace and test using that app they have in Singapore. Or some sort of regular, population wide testing and certification scheme. Or a vaccine.coopster_the_1st said:To all those criticising herd immunity, what is your solution to unwinding the lockdown without a large percentage of the population being immune to the disease?
How would you test 65m people? All of them weekly? Only when they report symptoms?
Let's take situation with TWH. How many people would be needed to track and trace the people his wife has been into contact with in the last 7 days?
Vaccine is 12+ months away. Only this of your suggestions moves us out of the lockdown
She has been working from home since 20th March
Hasn't left the house
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
What is your better option then Coopster? You keep ignoring the question about how to avoid a non lock down situation causing thousands of extra (non Covid) deaths.coopster_the_1st said:
I understand this, many on here don't. However we need roughly 42m people to have the virus to get to the herd immunity.mrfpb said:
The point is that herd immunity is inevitable whatever measures we take. The virus runs it course. The key is slowing down the "run it's course" bit so that those who can be saved in an ICU bed will have that bed availablecoopster_the_1st said:To all those criticising herd immunity, what is your solution to unwinding the lockdown without a large percentage of the population being immune to the disease?
- Genesis Croix de Fer
- Dolan Tuono0 -
I agree that there doesn't seem to be much of an aim other than reducing the strain on the NHS for now. I hope there will be a combination of antibody tests coupled with increasing NHS capacity. Certainly, having a lockdown until there is a vaccine is a non-starter. If the antibody tests show that most people haven't had it then the only hope is an exisiting treatment. There is a French Professor who has conducted two studies using Hydroxychloroquine but he seems like a bit of self publicist and the studies were very small.coopster_the_1st said:To all those criticising herd immunity, what is your solution to unwinding the lockdown without a large percentage of the population being immune to the disease?
Herd immunity in itself cannot be an aim, it's more of a by-product (of vaccination for example)
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Coopster consistently ignores this glaring flaw in his plan to let the old folk die.
Let the virus spread and the NHS collapses, and suddenly its not "just" old people suffering (not that it is anyway), it's NHS staff and all the other people who are now dying of stuff the NHS would have been able to help with.
How do you solve this Coopster? Refuse admission to anyone with symptoms? Ship them all off somewhere? Genuinely curious how you expect this to work.- Genesis Croix de Fer
- Dolan Tuono0 -
It's been pretty clear that the govt is still looking to build herd immunity from their reluctance to enforce a complete lockdown. I think what took them by surprise was the level of cases requiring hospital treatment which accounts for their sudden strengthening of restrictions a week or two ago.
Re. testing whether mass testing makes sense or not I can't see how it doesn't make sense to test NHS staff who are off work as a precaution - if we aren't even doing that level of testing then mistakes have been made.[Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]0 -
Why can't it be the aim? It was the stated aim of the Government for a while.nickice said:
I agree that there doesn't seem to be much of an aim other than reducing the strain on the NHS for now. I hope there will be a combination of antibody tests coupled with increasing NHS capacity. Certainly, having a lockdown until there is a vaccine is a non-starter. If the antibody tests show that most people haven't had it then the only hope is an exisiting treatment. There is a French Professor who has conducted two studies using Hydroxychloroquine but he seems like a bit of self publicist and the studies were very small.coopster_the_1st said:To all those criticising herd immunity, what is your solution to unwinding the lockdown without a large percentage of the population being immune to the disease?
Herd immunity in itself cannot be an aim, it's more of a by-product (of vaccination for example)
I completely agree it would be lovely if it wasn't the aim and there was a better option. But realistically, it is the way out of the situation isn't it? We just don't like how long it is going to take to do it without causing too many unnecessary deaths.
Unless some vaccine comes along an order of magnitude faster than scientists are saying it will, a gradual relaxing then tightening of lock down measures over several cycles until enough of us have had it is the only way I can see this will work.
Widespread regular testing will be more useful in several months time than it is now, so we can work out when enough people have had it.- Genesis Croix de Fer
- Dolan Tuono0 -
You saw the numbers of people celebrating spring break in the US right? Or the number of people having one large night out before lockdown?surrey_commuter said:
Shortage of credit was a one off cause. You are correct with a lack of confidence but that can have a number of different causes, oil price hike, political crisis, financial crash, Brexit and now pandemic.Jeremy.89 said:
I think the key difference, and you'll know more than me, is the cause. Usually there is a shortage of credit and a lack of confidence. This all takes time to spread through the system.surrey_commuter said:
Not sure what the difference is between hitting pause and a standard economic downturn as effectively they amount to the same thing. A shock to the system that takes time to recover from.Jeremy.89 said:
I think the economic impact will be, to say the least, interesting. The figures will undoubtedly look very grim, but from my perspective effectively hitting pause on large sections of the world economy is quite different from a typical economic downturn. There was lots of talk that there were investments that were just waiting on clarity on brexit to go through. Well this time there are many more business and personal spending opportunities that are just waiting on lockdown ending.surrey_commuter said:
If you mean graduate recruitment schemes then you have no idea how massive the negative impact on our economy is going to be. I doubt they or football come in the top 1,000 reasons of when to reverse lockdown.Jeremy.89 said:
Graduate schemes. The premier league contributes (a lot) more to GDP than fishing, and football is pretty important socially to a massive number of people. Ultimately I think the health of the nation would be improved by some semblance of normality, even if sport is trivial...surrey_commuter said:
Not sure what grad schemes are but you are definitely over-estimating the importance of sport.Jeremy.89 said:
I don't think the straight up herd immunity policy really stands up to any scrutiny. However, I think the timings of our lockdown have worked reasonably, although we'll have to wait for a while to really know one way or the other.surrey_commuter said:
I disagree it looked terrible at the time. To misquote TBB if only they knew more than him they would have done so much better and all he had was a small box that allowed him to see two weeks into the future.rick_chasey said:In hindsight, how on earth was the gov't going to do 'herd immunity' without any testing?
The response until about March 15th in hindsight looks absolutely terrible.
I would set September up as a month to work towards for lots of things, school university grad schemes and sport.
That doesn't mean I don't think things should go on in the meantime, finishing off the Premier league behind closed doors would seem sensible, so long as the lockdown is giving results, and so long as there are plenty of anti body tests flying about.
Having said all that, I'm not keen when politicians/Toby Youngs talk about setting precise dates on these things.
At the moment we are probably hovering over whether we need a stricter lockdown before we start unwinding it which will be reversal of the previous process
How does a reversal of the previous process go? When are people who are capable of working from home going to feel happy to go back in to the office? Many employers take their duty of care pretty seriously nowadays too.
I agree that the private sector took the lead on lockdown so will not be rushed back. When you see the numbers of TFL workers not turning up it is a reminder how workshy the average British worker is.
We have managed to damage the UK economy and the only thing keeping it out of recession is Govt stimulus. For background I think that Brexit will reduce growth by 0.5% per annum forever.
C19 is (in my opinion) an onrushing economic apocalypse. If UK GDP fell by double digits I would not be surprised (but I don’t think it will)
If you take this forum as a very upmarket straw poll then people are already losing their jobs and having earnings reduced. Anybody who gets away with a pay freeze should celebrate as I would not be surprised if we all earned 20% less next year. There will be a lot of businesses not hear next year and a lot of people unemployed.
These are just my opinions and whilst I am no expert I know more than most due to what I am exposed to in different roles.
As a warning to all those in the know are battening down the hatches and are very wary of who they have exposure to.
This time around a significant amount of economic activity has immediately stopped, not because there isn't the money or (in many cases) desire to do it, but because we want to limit physical exposure to other human beings temporarily. (Further down the line there will be a shortage of money and desire of course).
The shortage of money will have started already. When lockdown ends only the thickos will run out and buy a new car and book a holiday. Most people will plan for the worst and reduce spending.
More seriously if people have stable long term jobs low/no personal debt and reasonably sized mortgages why shouldn't they rush out and go on holiday?
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