The big Coronavirus thread

haydenm

coopster_the_1st said:

haydenm said:

coopster_the_1st said:

To all those criticising herd immunity, what is your solution to unwinding the lockdown without a large percentage of the population being immune to the disease?

Trace and test using that app they have in Singapore. Or some sort of regular, population wide testing and certification scheme. Or a vaccine.

I am reading aspriations, not solutions.


How would you test 65m people? All of them weekly? Only when they report symptoms?

Let's take situation with TWH. How many people would be needed to track and trace the people his wife has been into contact with in the last 7 days?

Vaccine is 12+ months away. Only this of your suggestions moves us out of the lockdown

Those are aspirations but we have a lot more time thanks to the lockdown. There's no way out yet but we aren't the only people looking. I think herd immunity would have worked if the hospitalisation rate was much lower, as it stands we are on the way to herd immunity but with a lower peak to reduce the death rate.

pblakeney

rick_chasey said:

nickice said:

rjsterry said:

nickice said:

Jeremy.89 said:

surrey_commuter said:

rick_chasey said:

In hindsight, how on earth was the gov't going to do 'herd immunity' without any testing?

The response until about March 15th in hindsight looks absolutely terrible.

I disagree it looked terrible at the time. To misquote TBB if only they knew more than him they would have done so much better and all he had was a small box that allowed him to see two weeks into the future.

I don't think the straight up herd immunity policy really stands up to any scrutiny. However, I think the timings of our lockdown have worked reasonably, although we'll have to wait for a while to really know one way or the other.

I would set September up as a month to work towards for lots of things, school university grad schemes and sport.

That doesn't mean I don't think things should go on in the meantime, finishing off the Premier league behind closed doors would seem sensible, so long as the lockdown is giving results, and so long as there are plenty of anti body tests flying about.

Having said all that, I'm not keen when politicians/Toby Youngs talk about setting precise dates on these things.

;
I think it's important to put an end date on things, though. The French PM has basically said that we'll be in lockdown for as long as it takes and that's no way to obtain the consent of the population. It's important to remember that if people feel the lockdown is too strict or pointless then they won't respect it. They should really explain what the reasons for certain measures are and, most importantly, what the actual scientific evidence behind them is (at least more than 'just in case')

Everyone would love an end date, but I think we would just be kidding ourselves. Best we can do is aim for something and review regularly. The modelling is the best guess we have but as has been shown already, you need to review and adjust as the real data arrives.

If the end date is basically 'as long as it takes' how long do you think people are going to put up with that? Especially as a lot of the rules are not well thought out. Remember how the police lost control during the London riots despite having the support of most of the public? Already, in Southern Italy (admittedly a part of the World with more than its fair share of existing problems) cracks are beginning to show: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/01/singing-stops-italy-fear-social-unrest-mount-coronavirus-lockdown

I'm not saying lifting everything now is a solution but people's patience will run out.

So what will happen when your patience runs out?

They gather, they protest, they take ill, they go to bed.
End of protest.

coopster_the_1st

tailwindhome said:

coopster_the_1st said:

haydenm said:

coopster_the_1st said:

To all those criticising herd immunity, what is your solution to unwinding the lockdown without a large percentage of the population being immune to the disease?

Trace and test using that app they have in Singapore. Or some sort of regular, population wide testing and certification scheme. Or a vaccine.

I am reading aspriations, not solutions.


How would you test 65m people? All of them weekly? Only when they report symptoms?

Let's take situation with TWH. How many people would be needed to track and trace the people his wife has been into contact with in the last 7 days?

Vaccine is 12+ months away. Only this of your suggestions moves us out of the lockdown

She has been working from home since 20th March
Hasn't left the house

OK. Then how does contact tracing work in this case. This is for Haydenm.

Now needs to be spread out to the rest of your household.

Let's say one of you has visited a supermarket. How do you trace all the people you have crossed that were in the supermarket at the time?

Or let's take a nurse gets C19. How does the contact tracing work with that? All the patients and NHS staff in the hospital?

It's it not workable when the virus is spread as wide as it is now

nickice

pangolin said:

nickice said:

coopster_the_1st said:

To all those criticising herd immunity, what is your solution to unwinding the lockdown without a large percentage of the population being immune to the disease?

I agree that there doesn't seem to be much of an aim other than reducing the strain on the NHS for now. I hope there will be a combination of antibody tests coupled with increasing NHS capacity. Certainly, having a lockdown until there is a vaccine is a non-starter. If the antibody tests show that most people haven't had it then the only hope is an exisiting treatment. There is a French Professor who has conducted two studies using Hydroxychloroquine but he seems like a bit of self publicist and the studies were very small.

Herd immunity in itself cannot be an aim, it's more of a by-product (of vaccination for example)

Why can't it be the aim? It was the stated aim of the Government for a while.

I completely agree it would be lovely if it wasn't the aim and there was a better option. But realistically, it is the way out of the situation isn't it? We just don't like how long it is going to take to do it without causing too many unnecessary deaths.

Unless some vaccine comes along an order of magnitude faster than scientists are saying it will, a gradual relaxing then tightening of lock down measures over several cycles until enough of us have had it is the only way I can see this will work.

Widespread regular testing will be more useful in several months time than it is now, so we can work out when enough people have had it.

Because, other than vaccination, that particular aim involves a lot of people getting it, being hospitalised and dying. I know that people think we can separate off vulnerable people and we can to an extent but it's pretty infectious so we may be living in a fantasy land.

nickice

OK. Then how does contact tracing work in this case. This is for Haydenm.

Now needs to be spread out to the rest of your household.

Let's say one of you has visited a supermarket. How do you trace all the people you have crossed that were in the supermarket at the time?

Or let's take a nurse gets C19. How does the contact tracing work with that? All the patients and NHS staff in the hospital?

It's it not workable when the virus is spread as wide as it is now

Agreed. Is contact tracing not basically impossible once you have community spread.

rjsterry

coopster_the_1st said:

mrfpb said:

coopster_the_1st said:

To all those criticising herd immunity, what is your solution to unwinding the lockdown without a large percentage of the population being immune to the disease?

The point is that herd immunity is inevitable whatever measures we take. The virus runs it course. The key is slowing down the "run it's course" bit so that those who can be saved in an ICU bed will have that bed available

I understand this, many on here don't. However we need roughly 42m people to have the virus to get to the herd immunity.

Really not sure there are that many who don't get it. It's not a complicated idea. Two points: for those of us in London, the health services are already at full stretch so we are at the point where we need to apply the brakes. Secondly, the number of us in the 'underlying health issues' category is I think rather larger than you seem to realise.

haydenm

coopster_the_1st said:

tailwindhome said:

coopster_the_1st said:

haydenm said:

coopster_the_1st said:

To all those criticising herd immunity, what is your solution to unwinding the lockdown without a large percentage of the population being immune to the disease?

Trace and test using that app they have in Singapore. Or some sort of regular, population wide testing and certification scheme. Or a vaccine.

I am reading aspriations, not solutions.


How would you test 65m people? All of them weekly? Only when they report symptoms?

Let's take situation with TWH. How many people would be needed to track and trace the people his wife has been into contact with in the last 7 days?

Vaccine is 12+ months away. Only this of your suggestions moves us out of the lockdown

She has been working from home since 20th March
Hasn't left the house

OK. Then how does contact tracing work in this case. This is for Haydenm.

Now needs to be spread out to the rest of your household.

Let's say one of you has visited a supermarket. How do you trace all the people you have crossed that were in the supermarket at the time?

Or let's take a nurse gets C19. How does the contact tracing work with that? All the patients and NHS staff in the hospital?

It's it not workable when the virus is spread as wide as it is now

I just suggested ways out, I wasn't really criticising herd immunity either (although loads of people will die).

The whole point of the social isolating and keeping everyone in the household at home is to make it easier. I'm not sure we will ever get there but I think the idea with suppressing it is to get to the point where you can track and trace. Again, look at the app they are using in Singapore (which they are considering here) which automatically records who you have been in close contact with then alerts everyone in the chain if someone tests positive.

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/03/30/technology/30reuters-health-coronavirus-germany-tech.html

I live in a pretty rural area with less than 100 cases in the county, if everyone outside of the high risk category used that app it is conceivable that I'd be able to go outside again...

nickice

rjsterry said:

coopster_the_1st said:

mrfpb said:

coopster_the_1st said:

To all those criticising herd immunity, what is your solution to unwinding the lockdown without a large percentage of the population being immune to the disease?

The point is that herd immunity is inevitable whatever measures we take. The virus runs it course. The key is slowing down the "run it's course" bit so that those who can be saved in an ICU bed will have that bed available

I understand this, many on here don't. However we need roughly 42m people to have the virus to get to the herd immunity.

Really not sure there are that many who don't get it. It's not a complicated idea. Two points: for those of us in London, the health services are already at full stretch so we are at the point where we need to apply the brakes. Secondly, the number of us in the 'underlying health issues' category is I think rather larger than you seem to realise.

Like you say, I also have one of the underlying health conditions. I don't think the data has really been adjusted for age, though.

However, speaking of underlying health conditions, the Daily Mail have been posting pictures of the deceased saying they were 'fit and healthy' or with 'no underlying health conditions'. I've seen quite a few now that were clearly clinically obese. I'm not suggesting they deserved to die to be clear but I have doubts that a clinically obese person doesn't have at least one or two underlying health conditions. And obesity in itself should be one.

tailwindhome

coopster_the_1st said:

tailwindhome said:

coopster_the_1st said:

haydenm said:

coopster_the_1st said:

To all those criticising herd immunity, what is your solution to unwinding the lockdown without a large percentage of the population being immune to the disease?

Trace and test using that app they have in Singapore. Or some sort of regular, population wide testing and certification scheme. Or a vaccine.

I am reading aspriations, not solutions.


How would you test 65m people? All of them weekly? Only when they report symptoms?

Let's take situation with TWH. How many people would be needed to track and trace the people his wife has been into contact with in the last 7 days?

Vaccine is 12+ months away. Only this of your suggestions moves us out of the lockdown

She has been working from home since 20th March
Hasn't left the house

OK. Then how does contact tracing work in this case. This is for Haydenm.

Now needs to be spread out to the rest of your household.

Let's say one of you has visited a supermarket. How do you trace all the people you have crossed that were in the supermarket at the time?

Or let's take a nurse gets C19. How does the contact tracing work with that? All the patients and NHS staff in the hospital?

It's it not workable when the virus is spread as wide as it is now

I'm the only person to have left the house.

I was in the local supermarket last night. The one journey out. The likelihood of me passing it on was significantly reduced by the social distancing mitigation they had in place.

Alcohol wipes on entering the stores, queue spacing of 2 m, cashier behind a screen, contactless payment.

The only other connection with the outside world was Saturday's Tesco delivery.

The driver placed the creates on the doorstep and stepped back. The groceries were in bags in the crates and I lifted the bags out. We never went within 2 m of each other and the normal signature procedure was dropped.

It's not workable when it's as widespread as now. That's why it needs supressed.

nickice

The incubation period can be up to 14 days (or, on rare occasions, longer)

tailwindhome

coopster_the_1st said:

It's it not workable when the virus is spread as wide as it is now

Two weeks ago your argument was we weren't Italy and had the virus under control.

If we no longer have the virus under control what's your plan

surrey_commuter

Your first sentence is the previously mentioned thickos.

Second sentence - other than public sector, food retail, couriers and insolvency practioners everybody else’s income has got a lot less stable.

C19 will continue to flare up, only an thicko or contract lawyer would rush out and book a holiday.

coopster_the_1st

haydenm said:

coopster_the_1st said:

tailwindhome said:

coopster_the_1st said:

haydenm said:

coopster_the_1st said:

To all those criticising herd immunity, what is your solution to unwinding the lockdown without a large percentage of the population being immune to the disease?

Trace and test using that app they have in Singapore. Or some sort of regular, population wide testing and certification scheme. Or a vaccine.

I am reading aspriations, not solutions.


How would you test 65m people? All of them weekly? Only when they report symptoms?

Let's take situation with TWH. How many people would be needed to track and trace the people his wife has been into contact with in the last 7 days?

Vaccine is 12+ months away. Only this of your suggestions moves us out of the lockdown

She has been working from home since 20th March
Hasn't left the house

OK. Then how does contact tracing work in this case. This is for Haydenm.

Now needs to be spread out to the rest of your household.

Let's say one of you has visited a supermarket. How do you trace all the people you have crossed that were in the supermarket at the time?

Or let's take a nurse gets C19. How does the contact tracing work with that? All the patients and NHS staff in the hospital?

It's it not workable when the virus is spread as wide as it is now

I just suggested ways out, I wasn't really criticising herd immunity either (although loads of people will die).

The whole point of the social isolating and keeping everyone in the household at home is to make it easier. I'm not sure we will ever get there but I think the idea with suppressing it is to get to the point where you can track and trace. Again, look at the app they are using in Singapore (which they are considering here) which automatically records who you have been in close contact with then alerts everyone in the chain if someone tests positive.

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/03/30/technology/30reuters-health-coronavirus-germany-tech.html

I live in a pretty rural area with less than 100 cases in the county, if everyone outside of the high risk category used that app it is conceivable that I'd be able to go outside again...

Where do you get the less than 100 cases in your county data from?

How can this data be accurate now the virus is widespread when the testing is not taking place?

I'm going to guess roughly 1m infections in the UK based on doubling every 3 days and testing and contact tracing can in now way keep up with even a fraction of those numbers

haydenm

coopster_the_1st said:

haydenm said:

coopster_the_1st said:

tailwindhome said:

coopster_the_1st said:

haydenm said:

coopster_the_1st said:

To all those criticising herd immunity, what is your solution to unwinding the lockdown without a large percentage of the population being immune to the disease?

Trace and test using that app they have in Singapore. Or some sort of regular, population wide testing and certification scheme. Or a vaccine.

I am reading aspriations, not solutions.


How would you test 65m people? All of them weekly? Only when they report symptoms?

Let's take situation with TWH. How many people would be needed to track and trace the people his wife has been into contact with in the last 7 days?

Vaccine is 12+ months away. Only this of your suggestions moves us out of the lockdown

She has been working from home since 20th March
Hasn't left the house

OK. Then how does contact tracing work in this case. This is for Haydenm.

Now needs to be spread out to the rest of your household.

Let's say one of you has visited a supermarket. How do you trace all the people you have crossed that were in the supermarket at the time?

Or let's take a nurse gets C19. How does the contact tracing work with that? All the patients and NHS staff in the hospital?

It's it not workable when the virus is spread as wide as it is now

I just suggested ways out, I wasn't really criticising herd immunity either (although loads of people will die).

The whole point of the social isolating and keeping everyone in the household at home is to make it easier. I'm not sure we will ever get there but I think the idea with suppressing it is to get to the point where you can track and trace. Again, look at the app they are using in Singapore (which they are considering here) which automatically records who you have been in close contact with then alerts everyone in the chain if someone tests positive.

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/03/30/technology/30reuters-health-coronavirus-germany-tech.html

I live in a pretty rural area with less than 100 cases in the county, if everyone outside of the high risk category used that app it is conceivable that I'd be able to go outside again...

Where do you get the less than 100 cases in your county data from?

How can this data be accurate now the virus is widespread when the testing is not taking place?

I'm going to guess roughly 1m infections in the UK based on doubling every 3 days and testing and contact tracing can in now way keep up with even a fraction of those numbers

74 confirmed cases. Obviously that is going to be lower than the actual but it's irrelevant if suppression brings the number under control. It doesn't sound like much but a small change in the rules changes people's daily lives significantly, if we want to make the 'flattening the peak' method work long term then people will need this sort of thing. This is the model we are working to and the model most experts thing is best currently. Letting thousands of people die just isn't on the agenda as much as you want it to be.

surrey_commuter

Media seem to have finally understood the significance of no preparation in terms of tests, ventilators or PPE.

How long before they realise there is no detail behind the financial promises of help.

haydenm

Are you suggesting we remove all restrictions and achieve herd immunity? Because my point is that looks like the general approach we are going for, just with a ceiling on the transmission rate to try and keep the NHS operating in the meantime. A slight relaxing of the rules in a month or two with the use of technology to help people know if they are likely to get sick could happen. Just because they are trying to slow the spread doesn't mean we aren't going for some sort of herd immunity surely?

rick_chasey

haydenm said:

Are you suggesting we remove all restrictions and achieve herd immunity? Because my point is that looks like the general approach we are going for, just with a ceiling on the transmission rate to try and keep the NHS operating in the meantime. A slight relaxing of the rules in a month or two with the use of technology to help people know if they are likely to get sick could happen. Just because they are trying to slow the spread doesn't mean we aren't going for some sort of herd immunity surely?

Herd immunity is a short-hand for doing SFA, not to be taken literally.

It is the opposite approach to what the Koreans and the Germans are doing.

rick_chasey

surrey_commuter said:

Media seem to have finally understood the significance of no preparation in terms of tests, ventilators or PPE.

How long before they realise there is no detail behind the financial promises of help.

Already being trailed on radio 6. Funnily enough I suspect the big firms to have absolutely no problem getting the money from the gov't but any small-mid cap will be stuffed.

kingstongraham

coopster_the_1st said:

mrfpb said:

coopster_the_1st said:

To all those criticising herd immunity, what is your solution to unwinding the lockdown without a large percentage of the population being immune to the disease?

The point is that herd immunity is inevitable whatever measures we take. The virus runs it course. The key is slowing down the "run it's course" bit so that those who can be saved in an ICU bed will have that bed available

I understand this, many on here don't. However we need roughly 42m people to have the virus to get to the herd immunity.

So you now agree that the lockdown is needed and that it is slowing down the spread and that's a good thing?

rjsterry

nickice said:

rjsterry said:

coopster_the_1st said:

mrfpb said:

coopster_the_1st said:

To all those criticising herd immunity, what is your solution to unwinding the lockdown without a large percentage of the population being immune to the disease?

The point is that herd immunity is inevitable whatever measures we take. The virus runs it course. The key is slowing down the "run it's course" bit so that those who can be saved in an ICU bed will have that bed available

I understand this, many on here don't. However we need roughly 42m people to have the virus to get to the herd immunity.

Really not sure there are that many who don't get it. It's not a complicated idea. Two points: for those of us in London, the health services are already at full stretch so we are at the point where we need to apply the brakes. Secondly, the number of us in the 'underlying health issues' category is I think rather larger than you seem to realise.

Like you say, I also have one of the underlying health conditions. I don't think the data has really been adjusted for age, though.

However, speaking of underlying health conditions, the Daily Mail have been posting pictures of the deceased saying they were 'fit and healthy' or with 'no underlying health conditions'. I've seen quite a few now that were clearly clinically obese. I'm not suggesting they deserved to die to be clear but I have doubts that a clinically obese person doesn't have at least one or two underlying health conditions. And obesity in itself should be one.

Exactly my point there are a lot of people who have underlying health conditions while still being productive members of society. The last prime minister for one. Nor does underlying health condition imply that they are at death's door.

Longshot

Anyone seen how Sweden's curve is going? I had a quick look and can find vanilla numbers but the curve is the interesting comparison for them.

coopster_the_1st

haydenm said:

Are you suggesting we remove all restrictions and achieve herd immunity? Because my point is that looks like the general approach we are going for, just with a ceiling on the transmission rate to try and keep the NHS operating in the meantime. A slight relaxing of the rules in a month or two with the use of technology to help people know if they are likely to get sick could happen. Just because they are trying to slow the spread doesn't mean we aren't going for some sort of herd immunity surely?

Cool. you are demonstrating you understand herd immutity. There are plenty of others on here that don't.

People are going to die from C19 anyway and herd immunity needs to happen sooner rather than later.

We cannot turn down and then turn up the lockdown over the next 12+ months as the economy will die before that from the uncertainty caused.

So we need a much more agressive approach to getting herd immunity, particularly among the young.

So I would bring schools and universities back for anyone who does not have an old or vulnerable person living at home with them after Easter.

Then unlock the under 30's, then under 40's, etc, under the same rules as above, thus allowing businesses to start to re-open.

All the while doing our best to maintain the 2m social distancing that we currently have. No travel on any public transport unless you are a critical or key worker.

If you are old and/or vulnerable and decide to unlock yourself before your advised time the risk is on you but don't expect a hospital bed for you if you require it.

focuszing723

I would imagine they will be monitoring the numbers compared to their healthcare systems capacity and locking down accordingly when appropriate. Helping build a natural social attitude towards isolation, for the greater good.

surrey_commuter

Interesting thoughts from Coopster.

My process would be to sort out the testing so that we understand how many people have had it and how dangerous it is. Reopening schools has some merit to but I think I would look at reversing lockdown on a regional basis.

There is a lot of talk of mutiny over the regs on here but for London commuters I am seeing no desire to go back in. If you are in a barely populated area then it probably seems a bit pointless

kingstongraham

To quote from the epidemiologist arguing against the UK's policy from 17 days ago: "The UK should not be trying to create herd immunity, that will take care of itself. Policy should be directed at slowing the outbreak to a (more) manageable rate."

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/15/epidemiologist-britain-herd-immunity-coronavirus-covid-19

rjsterry

coopster_the_1st said:

haydenm said:

Are you suggesting we remove all restrictions and achieve herd immunity? Because my point is that looks like the general approach we are going for, just with a ceiling on the transmission rate to try and keep the NHS operating in the meantime. A slight relaxing of the rules in a month or two with the use of technology to help people know if they are likely to get sick could happen. Just because they are trying to slow the spread doesn't mean we aren't going for some sort of herd immunity surely?

Cool. you are demonstrating you understand herd immutity. There are plenty of others on here that don't.

People are going to die from C19 anyway and herd immunity needs to happen sooner rather than later.

We cannot turn down and then turn up the lockdown over the next 12+ months as the economy will die before that from the uncertainty caused.

So we need a much more agressive approach to getting herd immunity, particularly among the young.

So I would bring schools and universities back for anyone who does not have an old or vulnerable person living at home with them after Easter.

Then unlock the under 30's, then under 40's, etc, under the same rules as above, thus allowing businesses to start to re-open.

All the while doing our best to maintain the 2m social distancing that we currently have. No travel on any public transport unless you are a critical or key worker.

If you are old and/or vulnerable and decide to unlock yourself before your advised time the risk is on you but don't expect a hospital bed for you if you require it.

I'm interested in how you think London could unlock while banning all but key workers from PT and maintaining 2m separation. Secondly, bearing in mind nickice's point about obesity counting as an underlying health condition what proportion of school children and students do you think don't share a household with someone particularly vulnerable to the virus. Lastly, how are you going to persuade the public to take one for the team given that even in healthy adults run a not insignificant risk of the infection requiring hospital treatment? Intubation is not on my list of things to try.

P. S. It's nice that you think there is a chance that the economy might not be completely censored by this, but that seems wildly optimistic. It's already happening.

Pross

rick_chasey said:

haydenm said:

Are you suggesting we remove all restrictions and achieve herd immunity? Because my point is that looks like the general approach we are going for, just with a ceiling on the transmission rate to try and keep the NHS operating in the meantime. A slight relaxing of the rules in a month or two with the use of technology to help people know if they are likely to get sick could happen. Just because they are trying to slow the spread doesn't mean we aren't going for some sort of herd immunity surely?

Herd immunity is a short-hand for doing SFA, not to be taken literally.

It is the opposite approach to what the Koreans and the Germans are doing.

I'm not sure what Germany are doing but the last comparison graph I saw was suggesting it wasn't working any better than our approach. here are very few countries whose graph are significantly better than ours (Japan and South Korea being the obvious exceptions though there was some talk that Japan were massaging the figures to try to avoid the Olympics getting postponed). Yes, we had the benefit of two weeks learning from Italy that we could have made better use of and yes the Government seem to be royally fucking up the distribution of PPE and testing kits but I'm not seeing many other countries delivering better outcomes.

focuszing723

coopster_the_1st said:

haydenm said:

Are you suggesting we remove all restrictions and achieve herd immunity? Because my point is that looks like the general approach we are going for, just with a ceiling on the transmission rate to try and keep the NHS operating in the meantime. A slight relaxing of the rules in a month or two with the use of technology to help people know if they are likely to get sick could happen. Just because they are trying to slow the spread doesn't mean we aren't going for some sort of herd immunity surely?

Cool. you are demonstrating you understand herd immutity. There are plenty of others on here that don't.

People are going to die from C19 anyway and herd immunity needs to happen sooner rather than later.

We cannot turn down and then turn up the lockdown over the next 12+ months as the economy will die before that from the uncertainty caused.

So we need a much more agressive approach to getting herd immunity, particularly among the young.

So I would bring schools and universities back for anyone who does not have an old or vulnerable person living at home with them after Easter.

Then unlock the under 30's, then under 40's, etc, under the same rules as above, thus allowing businesses to start to re-open.

All the while doing our best to maintain the 2m social distancing that we currently have. No travel on any public transport unless you are a critical or key worker.

If you are old and/or vulnerable and decide to unlock yourself before your advised time the risk is on you but don't expect a hospital bed for you if you require it.

Coopster, you've changed your tune now. At the start it was all about old people and natural consequences . You completely dismissed any notion of a lock-down to protect the NHS and other support services. If we would have gone this route the system would be on it's knees by now!

All you are doing now is reiterating what the government and healthcare advisers have been proposing from day 1 of the press conference.

surrey_commuter

Longshot said:

Anyone seen how Sweden's curve is going? I had a quick look and can find vanilla numbers but the curve is the interesting comparison for them.

Not sure what vanilla numbers are but for those who like trading economics this is a similarly awesome site
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

I am sorting by deaths as cases seems arbitrary. Recovered seems interesting.

surrey_commuter

Pross said:

rick_chasey said:

haydenm said:

Are you suggesting we remove all restrictions and achieve herd immunity? Because my point is that looks like the general approach we are going for, just with a ceiling on the transmission rate to try and keep the NHS operating in the meantime. A slight relaxing of the rules in a month or two with the use of technology to help people know if they are likely to get sick could happen. Just because they are trying to slow the spread doesn't mean we aren't going for some sort of herd immunity surely?

Herd immunity is a short-hand for doing SFA, not to be taken literally.

It is the opposite approach to what the Koreans and the Germans are doing.

I'm not sure what Germany are doing but the last comparison graph I saw was suggesting it wasn't working any better than our approach. here are very few countries whose graph are significantly better than ours (Japan and South Korea being the obvious exceptions though there was some talk that Japan were massaging the figures to try to avoid the Olympics getting postponed). Yes, we had the benefit of two weeks learning from Italy that we could have made better use of and yes the Government seem to be royally censored up the distribution of PPE and testing kits but I'm not seeing many other countries delivering better outcomes.

Germany has 30% more people and less than half the deaths.

We have the 7th highest number of deaths in the world so I am not sure of your definition of acceptable outcome.

If we had tried to mitigate it with preparation in the three main areas then more people would be alive, less people would be scared, the economy less fvcked with a chance of faster recovery. So no I will not be joining you in giving the Govt a hearty slap on the back.