The big Coronavirus thread

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  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    "We need a reason why we aren't testing"

    "Tell them we don't have chemicals"

    "Brilliant. No one will ever check"

    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • nickice
    nickice Posts: 2,439
    Jeremy.89 said:

    In hindsight, how on earth was the gov't going to do 'herd immunity' without any testing?

    The response until about March 15th in hindsight looks absolutely terrible.

    I disagree it looked terrible at the time. To misquote TBB if only they knew more than him they would have done so much better and all he had was a small box that allowed him to see two weeks into the future.
    I don't think the straight up herd immunity policy really stands up to any scrutiny. However, I think the timings of our lockdown have worked reasonably, although we'll have to wait for a while to really know one way or the other.

    I would set September up as a month to work towards for lots of things, school university grad schemes and sport.

    That doesn't mean I don't think things should go on in the meantime, finishing off the Premier league behind closed doors would seem sensible, so long as the lockdown is giving results, and so long as there are plenty of anti body tests flying about.

    Having said all that, I'm not keen when politicians/Toby Youngs talk about setting precise dates on these things.
    ;
    I think it's important to put an end date on things, though. The French PM has basically said that we'll be in lockdown for as long as it takes and that's no way to obtain the consent of the population. It's important to remember that if people feel the lockdown is too strict or pointless then they won't respect it. They should really explain what the reasons for certain measures are and, most importantly, what the actual scientific evidence behind them is (at least more than 'just in case')
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    What are you planning to do by not consenting Nick?
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661

    "We need a reason why we aren't testing"

    "Tell them we don't have chemicals"

    "Brilliant. No one will ever check"

    He’s been caught bang to rights.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661

    In hindsight, how on earth was the gov't going to do 'herd immunity' without any testing?

    The response until about March 15th in hindsight looks absolutely terrible.

    I disagree it looked terrible at the time. To misquote TBB if only they knew more than him they would have done so much better and all he had was a small box that allowed him to see two weeks into the future.
    I knew nothing about it at the time. 0%.


    I’m now around mount stupid.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    Jeremy.89 said:

    In hindsight, how on earth was the gov't going to do 'herd immunity' without any testing?

    The response until about March 15th in hindsight looks absolutely terrible.

    I disagree it looked terrible at the time. To misquote TBB if only they knew more than him they would have done so much better and all he had was a small box that allowed him to see two weeks into the future.
    I don't think the straight up herd immunity policy really stands up to any scrutiny. However, I think the timings of our lockdown have worked reasonably, although we'll have to wait for a while to really know one way or the other.

    I would set September up as a month to work towards for lots of things, school university grad schemes and sport.

    That doesn't mean I don't think things should go on in the meantime, finishing off the Premier league behind closed doors would seem sensible, so long as the lockdown is giving results, and so long as there are plenty of anti body tests flying about.

    Having said all that, I'm not keen when politicians/Toby Youngs talk about setting precise dates on these things.
    Not sure what grad schemes are but you are definitely over-estimating the importance of sport.

    At the moment we are probably hovering over whether we need a stricter lockdown before we start unwinding it which will be reversal of the previous process
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867

    "We need a reason why we aren't testing"

    "Tell them we don't have chemicals"

    "Brilliant. No one will ever check"

    He’s been caught bang to rights.
    You are so last century, what difference do you think it will make, he is hardly going to quit for lying.
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,331
    Just as a little aside, anyone think there may be an impact on people's materialism at the end of this? Adequate provisions of blogroll aside... 😉
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • "We need a reason why we aren't testing"

    "Tell them we don't have chemicals"

    "Brilliant. No one will ever check"


    Something doesn't smell right about this from the government side.
  • ddraver
    ddraver Posts: 26,698

    We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
    - @ddraver
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    edited March 2020

    "We need a reason why we aren't testing"

    "Tell them we don't have chemicals"

    "Brilliant. No one will ever check"


    Something doesn't smell right about this from the government side.
    You voted for them to own the libs
    and the word you're looking for is 'lie'
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661

    "We need a reason why we aren't testing"

    "Tell them we don't have chemicals"

    "Brilliant. No one will ever check"

    He’s been caught bang to rights.
    You are so last century, what difference do you think it will make, he is hardly going to quit for lying.
    It might be different when there’s a body count at the end of it. Who knows.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867

    "We need a reason why we aren't testing"

    "Tell them we don't have chemicals"

    "Brilliant. No one will ever check"

    He’s been caught bang to rights.
    You are so last century, what difference do you think it will make, he is hardly going to quit for lying.
    It might be different when there’s a body count at the end of it. Who knows.
    He does not look the type to resign as a matter of honour and his boss is hardly likely to want to set a precedent.

    The real question of course is why tell that lie? Suggestion is that no attempt was made to source tests as they were not needed under the Govt’s now discredited herd immunity policy.
  • ddraver
    ddraver Posts: 26,698
    I'm assuming you've all seen the family doing One More Day in lockdown, if not, you really must!
    We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
    - @ddraver
  • "We need a reason why we aren't testing"

    "Tell them we don't have chemicals"

    "Brilliant. No one will ever check"


    Something doesn't smell right about this from the government side.
    You voted for them to own the libs
    and the word you're looking for is 'lie'
    Lie could be correct but I use smell because I trust Prof Chris Whitty (CMO), Dr Jenny Harries (Deputy CMO) & Sir Patrick Vallance (CSO). They are saying the same things on testing so must know the real reason. Also, the CMO's of Scotland, Wales and NI would also know this and I really can't see Nicola Sturgeon covering up for this government.

    On the other side it is Peston and that says enough as he has an ego to maintain
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661

    Jeremy.89 said:

    To be fair to the newspapers. There is only one news story on atm and they have a whole paper to fill!

    The whole right wing deliberately contrarian opinion article is pretty standard fare and pretty tedious. Expecting them to do a fair cost benefit analysis (I.e one that includes the cost of preventable deaths as a cost of opening up our economy again) is simply expecting too much within a short article.

    I do think that there could be more emphasis on just how bad letting covid run riot would be from an economic pov (as well as a human pov) though.



    The National Institute for Clinical Excellence (NICE) put an upper band of £30,000 on the cost of adding one quality-adjusted life year (Qaly).

    Even Diane Abbott and her maths can see we blown this figure away.

    And this does not take account of the life years list of the 99.5% who have to pick up the pieces
    Which person in your family would you give up for the good of the economy?
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,574
    edited March 2020
    nickice said:

    Jeremy.89 said:

    In hindsight, how on earth was the gov't going to do 'herd immunity' without any testing?

    The response until about March 15th in hindsight looks absolutely terrible.

    I disagree it looked terrible at the time. To misquote TBB if only they knew more than him they would have done so much better and all he had was a small box that allowed him to see two weeks into the future.
    I don't think the straight up herd immunity policy really stands up to any scrutiny. However, I think the timings of our lockdown have worked reasonably, although we'll have to wait for a while to really know one way or the other.

    I would set September up as a month to work towards for lots of things, school university grad schemes and sport.

    That doesn't mean I don't think things should go on in the meantime, finishing off the Premier league behind closed doors would seem sensible, so long as the lockdown is giving results, and so long as there are plenty of anti body tests flying about.

    Having said all that, I'm not keen when politicians/Toby Youngs talk about setting precise dates on these things.
    ;
    I think it's important to put an end date on things, though. The French PM has basically said that we'll be in lockdown for as long as it takes and that's no way to obtain the consent of the population. It's important to remember that if people feel the lockdown is too strict or pointless then they won't respect it. They should really explain what the reasons for certain measures are and, most importantly, what the actual scientific evidence behind them is (at least more than 'just in case')
    Everyone would love an end date, but I think we would just be kidding ourselves. Best we can do is aim for something and review regularly. The modelling is the best guess we have but as has been shown already, you need to review and adjust as the real data arrives.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,463
    pblakeney said:

    Just as a little aside, anyone think there may be an impact on people's materialism at the end of this? Adequate provisions of blogroll aside... 😉

    For about a week I suspect.

    I'd also like to think we'd hear an end of people moaning about charities doing stuff for people in Africa when we're struggling at home as we've shown we can barely cope with an emergency that wouldn't even cause a ripple to the people being helped over there. Likewise, you would think that people who are moaning about being stuck in their house for a few weeks with their families and luxury items, allowed out when essential and to exercise will no longer say that prison is a holiday camp and not a proper punishment. However, I suspect I'll be disappointed.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    So who knows why the U.K. isn’t testing like Germany is?
  • coopster_the_1st
    coopster_the_1st Posts: 5,158
    edited March 2020

    Jeremy.89 said:

    To be fair to the newspapers. There is only one news story on atm and they have a whole paper to fill!

    The whole right wing deliberately contrarian opinion article is pretty standard fare and pretty tedious. Expecting them to do a fair cost benefit analysis (I.e one that includes the cost of preventable deaths as a cost of opening up our economy again) is simply expecting too much within a short article.

    I do think that there could be more emphasis on just how bad letting covid run riot would be from an economic pov (as well as a human pov) though.



    The National Institute for Clinical Excellence (NICE) put an upper band of £30,000 on the cost of adding one quality-adjusted life year (Qaly).

    Even Diane Abbott and her maths can see we blown this figure away.

    And this does not take account of the life years list of the 99.5% who have to pick up the pieces
    Which person in your family would you give up for the good of the economy?
    You are asking this question the wrong way round. How much would you give up for your child? Your life?

    The answer is Yes and this is what any normal parent would do.

    With age comes experience, maturity and the responsibility of wanting to protect our young.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661

    Jeremy.89 said:

    To be fair to the newspapers. There is only one news story on atm and they have a whole paper to fill!

    The whole right wing deliberately contrarian opinion article is pretty standard fare and pretty tedious. Expecting them to do a fair cost benefit analysis (I.e one that includes the cost of preventable deaths as a cost of opening up our economy again) is simply expecting too much within a short article.

    I do think that there could be more emphasis on just how bad letting covid run riot would be from an economic pov (as well as a human pov) though.



    The National Institute for Clinical Excellence (NICE) put an upper band of £30,000 on the cost of adding one quality-adjusted life year (Qaly).

    Even Diane Abbott and her maths can see we blown this figure away.

    And this does not take account of the life years list of the 99.5% who have to pick up the pieces
    Which person in your family would you give up for the good of the economy?
    You are asking this question the wrong way round. How much would you give up for your child? Your life?

    The answer is Yes and this is what any normal parent would do.

    With age comes experience, maturity and the responsibility of protecting our young.
    So yourself?

    I’d settle for that.
  • Jeremy.89
    Jeremy.89 Posts: 457

    Jeremy.89 said:

    In hindsight, how on earth was the gov't going to do 'herd immunity' without any testing?

    The response until about March 15th in hindsight looks absolutely terrible.

    I disagree it looked terrible at the time. To misquote TBB if only they knew more than him they would have done so much better and all he had was a small box that allowed him to see two weeks into the future.
    I don't think the straight up herd immunity policy really stands up to any scrutiny. However, I think the timings of our lockdown have worked reasonably, although we'll have to wait for a while to really know one way or the other.

    I would set September up as a month to work towards for lots of things, school university grad schemes and sport.

    That doesn't mean I don't think things should go on in the meantime, finishing off the Premier league behind closed doors would seem sensible, so long as the lockdown is giving results, and so long as there are plenty of anti body tests flying about.

    Having said all that, I'm not keen when politicians/Toby Youngs talk about setting precise dates on these things.
    Not sure what grad schemes are but you are definitely over-estimating the importance of sport.

    At the moment we are probably hovering over whether we need a stricter lockdown before we start unwinding it which will be reversal of the previous process
    Graduate schemes. The premier league contributes (a lot) more to GDP than fishing, and football is pretty important socially to a massive number of people. Ultimately I think the health of the nation would be improved by some semblance of normality, even if sport is trivial...

    How does a reversal of the previous process go? When are people who are capable of working from home going to feel happy to go back in to the office? Many employers take their duty of care pretty seriously nowadays too.

  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    edited March 2020
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,154

    Jeremy.89 said:

    To be fair to the newspapers. There is only one news story on atm and they have a whole paper to fill!

    The whole right wing deliberately contrarian opinion article is pretty standard fare and pretty tedious. Expecting them to do a fair cost benefit analysis (I.e one that includes the cost of preventable deaths as a cost of opening up our economy again) is simply expecting too much within a short article.

    I do think that there could be more emphasis on just how bad letting covid run riot would be from an economic pov (as well as a human pov) though.



    The National Institute for Clinical Excellence (NICE) put an upper band of £30,000 on the cost of adding one quality-adjusted life year (Qaly).

    Even Diane Abbott and her maths can see we blown this figure away.

    And this does not take account of the life years list of the 99.5% who have to pick up the pieces
    Which person in your family would you give up for the good of the economy?
    It was his father earlier in the thread.

    I doubt this will change his thinking: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-52114476
  • I am enjoying that people are waking up and finally questioning if we are looking way to short term with our actions to the current crisis.

    That this discussion angers the woke and SJW's shows that it is likely the current policys are the wrong ones.

    You favour letting 250,000 die to own the libs?

    There are 65,750,000 others and their future lives to consider as well
    As well?

    It's mostly owning the libs though isn't it?
    I've owned the libs for the last 3.5 years :smiley:

    We always use to abide by the 'women and children' first philosophy. ie The young before the old. This is surely a very liberal policy.

    We'd all agree that right now you would spend your medical resources on saving a doctor against an 80 year man. We would do it for the greater good as the recovered doctor would then contribute to saving many more lives.
    Your plan is to help doctors by sending hundreds of thousands virus infected patients their way.

    Just to own the libs
    Coopster consistently ignores this glaring flaw in his plan to let the old folk die.

    Let the virus spread and the NHS collapses, and suddenly its not "just" old people suffering (not that it is anyway), it's NHS staff and all the other people who are now dying of stuff the NHS would have been able to help with.

    How do you solve this Coopster? Refuse admission to anyone with symptoms? Ship them all off somewhere? Genuinely curious how you expect this to work.
    sam
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,331
    Pross said:

    pblakeney said:

    Just as a little aside, anyone think there may be an impact on people's materialism at the end of this? Adequate provisions of blogroll aside... 😉

    For about a week I suspect.

    I'd also like to think we'd hear an end of people moaning about charities doing stuff for people in Africa when we're struggling at home as we've shown we can barely cope with an emergency that wouldn't even cause a ripple to the people being helped over there. Likewise, you would think that people who are moaning about being stuck in their house for a few weeks with their families and luxury items, allowed out when essential and to exercise will no longer say that prison is a holiday camp and not a proper punishment. However, I suspect I'll be disappointed.
    Unfortunately, me too. 😢
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,331

    Jeremy.89 said:

    To be fair to the newspapers. There is only one news story on atm and they have a whole paper to fill!

    The whole right wing deliberately contrarian opinion article is pretty standard fare and pretty tedious. Expecting them to do a fair cost benefit analysis (I.e one that includes the cost of preventable deaths as a cost of opening up our economy again) is simply expecting too much within a short article.

    I do think that there could be more emphasis on just how bad letting covid run riot would be from an economic pov (as well as a human pov) though.



    The National Institute for Clinical Excellence (NICE) put an upper band of £30,000 on the cost of adding one quality-adjusted life year (Qaly).

    Even Diane Abbott and her maths can see we blown this figure away.

    And this does not take account of the life years list of the 99.5% who have to pick up the pieces
    Which person in your family would you give up for the good of the economy?
    It was his father earlier in the thread.

    I doubt this will change his thinking: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-52114476
    Too sad for words.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • john80
    john80 Posts: 2,965

    I am enjoying that people are waking up and finally questioning if we are looking way to short term with our actions to the current crisis.

    That this discussion angers the woke and SJW's shows that it is likely the current policys are the wrong ones.

    You favour letting 250,000 die to own the libs?

    There are 65,750,000 others and their future lives to consider as well
    As well?

    It's mostly owning the libs though isn't it?
    I've owned the libs for the last 3.5 years :smiley:

    We always use to abide by the 'women and children' first philosophy. ie The young before the old. This is surely a very liberal policy.

    We'd all agree that right now you would spend your medical resources on saving a doctor against an 80 year man. We would do it for the greater good as the recovered doctor would then contribute to saving many more lives.
    Your plan is to help doctors by sending hundreds of thousands virus infected patients their way.

    Just to own the libs
    Coopster consistently ignores this glaring flaw in his plan to let the old folk die.

    Let the virus spread and the NHS collapses, and suddenly its not "just" old people suffering (not that it is anyway), it's NHS staff and all the other people who are now dying of stuff the NHS would have been able to help with.

    How do you solve this Coopster? Refuse admission to anyone with symptoms? Ship them all off somewhere? Genuinely curious how you expect this to work.
    He has no answer. He probably does not even know how to address the loss of trust of medical professionals working within the NHS sent like lambs to the slaughter under his plan that would most definitely overwhelm the system..
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,428
    Looking beyond our shores for a minute, looks like ÇOVID-19 could spell trouble for the single currency:
    https://theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2020/mar/31/solidarity-members-eurozone-coronavirus-dutch-coronabond

    Italy was predicted to be the first domino to topple not that long ago, albeit for different reasons.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,574

    Jeremy.89 said:

    To be fair to the newspapers. There is only one news story on atm and they have a whole paper to fill!

    The whole right wing deliberately contrarian opinion article is pretty standard fare and pretty tedious. Expecting them to do a fair cost benefit analysis (I.e one that includes the cost of preventable deaths as a cost of opening up our economy again) is simply expecting too much within a short article.

    I do think that there could be more emphasis on just how bad letting covid run riot would be from an economic pov (as well as a human pov) though.



    The National Institute for Clinical Excellence (NICE) put an upper band of £30,000 on the cost of adding one quality-adjusted life year (Qaly).

    Even Diane Abbott and her maths can see we blown this figure away.

    And this does not take account of the life years list of the 99.5% who have to pick up the pieces
    Which person in your family would you give up for the good of the economy?
    Putting the emotive questions to one side, the figure is £60K, not £30K. And the average life expectancy for someone who has made it to 80 is 9 or 10 years. At 70 it's another 15 years.
    Secondly, 99.5% (or whatever the figure turns out to be) is the number of people who survive, the proportion unaffected beyond mild symptoms will be much smaller.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition