The big Coronavirus thread

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  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,597
    pblakeney said:

    Pross said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    Pross said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    based upon a lot of anecdotal evidence there will be a lot of companies ignoring Boris and shutting their offices next week.

    Doing the opposite of the rest of the world is a very high risk strategy - as a known lying untrustworthy censored it does feel like he is gambling for the sake of it

    To be fair to Boris, following the advice of the people the Government pays to give advice on such matters doesn't really seem unreasonable. As I've asked above, why are people so sure we're doing it wrong rather than other countries?

    On the offices closing, we've gone the opposite way and after a day of WFH for everyone today whilst the bosses took stock of the latest advice we're back to having the office open on Monday. That said, considering most of the office has spent time at Cheltenham Festival this week I'm not sure I want to go in.
    But that advice will not be unanimous and the rest of the world has received advice and done the opposite. We may be right and the rest of the world wrong but it is an incredibly arrogant assumption that most people would back away from and reassess their position.
    From what I heard on the radio this morning France is, or has been, taking a similar approach to us. Other than Italy, the Far East, Spain and the US I haven't really heard much of what other countries are doing. At least our policy seems to have been considered which is more than can be said for the US.
    I have friends in France. They have been in complete lockdown for a week. You are only allowed outdoors for essentials such as food or medicine. You need to complete a government form to produce if you are found outdoors and fined if everything is not in order.
    That was a post from about a week ago that has randomly reappeared as a new one along with a few others. All very odd!
  • sungod
    sungod Posts: 17,434
    Pross said:

    pblakeney said:

    Pross said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    Pross said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    based upon a lot of anecdotal evidence there will be a lot of companies ignoring Boris and shutting their offices next week.

    Doing the opposite of the rest of the world is a very high risk strategy - as a known lying untrustworthy censored it does feel like he is gambling for the sake of it

    To be fair to Boris, following the advice of the people the Government pays to give advice on such matters doesn't really seem unreasonable. As I've asked above, why are people so sure we're doing it wrong rather than other countries?

    On the offices closing, we've gone the opposite way and after a day of WFH for everyone today whilst the bosses took stock of the latest advice we're back to having the office open on Monday. That said, considering most of the office has spent time at Cheltenham Festival this week I'm not sure I want to go in.
    But that advice will not be unanimous and the rest of the world has received advice and done the opposite. We may be right and the rest of the world wrong but it is an incredibly arrogant assumption that most people would back away from and reassess their position.
    From what I heard on the radio this morning France is, or has been, taking a similar approach to us. Other than Italy, the Far East, Spain and the US I haven't really heard much of what other countries are doing. At least our policy seems to have been considered which is more than can be said for the US.
    I have friends in France. They have been in complete lockdown for a week. You are only allowed outdoors for essentials such as food or medicine. You need to complete a government form to produce if you are found outdoors and fined if everything is not in order.
    That was a post from about a week ago that has randomly reappeared as a new one along with a few others. All very odd!
    clearly the forum has had the virus circulating for ages, mods failed to act for a couple of months, it's now replicating
    my bike - faster than god's and twice as shiny
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    _
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,597
    Reading back from the start is interesting. Surrey seemed to accept the Government policy for a couple of days before starting to criticise it on the third day, Rick was pretty laid back about it for a few days before stating he was unsure how he felt than going into 'bodies piling up in the street' mode. I think Big Bean has probably been the one who has appeared mildly sceptical of the Government policy throughout.
  • crescent
    crescent Posts: 1,201
    I genuinely think people have been getting confused over the guidance on exercise. There have been several comments at the PM daily briefing about social isolation but it being ok to go out for a walk or a jog or a bit of exercise. I actually think people are under the impression that fresh air will sort this out. There was a statement today to reinforce that this is not the case, to be fair. I am still cycling and walking my dog, on my own, but saw several larger groups of people today who looked as if they were not regular "athletes". Ironic that they come outside now after being told to more or less stay indoors. Had there been no CV crisis they would have been free to vegetate on the couch as normal.
    Bianchi ImpulsoBMC Teammachine SLR02 01Trek Domane AL3“When I see an adult on a bicycle, I do not despair for the future of the human race. “ ~H.G. Wells Edit - "Unless it's a BMX"
  • capt_slog
    capt_slog Posts: 3,974
    How long before we're told we can't cycle? I noticed a lot out today, making the most of the sunshine and the last(?) chance.


    The older I get, the better I was.

  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 22,027
    If you go back to some of the earlier threads you'll find some fairly gloomy comments from me. It's something I hoped I was wrong about, but sadly wasn't.
  • joe2019
    joe2019 Posts: 1,338
    edited March 2020
    surrey_commuter said:

    What does anybody think to the possibility that prolonged exposure gives you a worse dose of the virus. With our medics having inadequate gear this could become crucial


    For sure. In Italy at least 2625 health workers have been infected (8.3% of all cases in the country) or total cases, 17 have died, as of 18/03/20.
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 22,027
    surrey_commuter said:

    TheBigBean said:

    In some rare positve news it sounds like a consortium of manufacturers will shortly be able to make 1000 new ventilators a day. They've solved the battery problem by removing the need for electics.


    Bizarre, I read a couple of weeks ago that we gave our old ventilators to developing countries but the army still has hand pumps for use in the field. You would think this would be easy to make but I have no idea about retooling production lines.
    They're not making hand pumps, they are automatic, but don't use electricity. Apparently the government's big issue was that the normal ones are frequently disconnected from power to move the beds. This works because they have a big battery, but if they followed the same design now they wouldn't be able to source enough batteries, so they needed a different design.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    Pross said:

    Reading back from the start is interesting. Surrey seemed to accept the Government policy for a couple of days before starting to criticise it on the third day, Rick was pretty laid back about it for a few days before stating he was unsure how he felt than going into 'bodies piling up in the street' mode. I think Big Bean has probably been the one who has appeared mildly sceptical of the Government policy throughout.

    Yeah that’s fair.

    I spent a lot of time working out what the U.K. govt was thinking going differently to others.
    _
  • kingstonian
    kingstonian Posts: 2,847
    TheBigBean said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    TheBigBean said:

    In some rare positve news it sounds like a consortium of manufacturers will shortly be able to make 1000 new ventilators a day. They've solved the battery problem by removing the need for electics.


    Bizarre, I read a couple of weeks ago that we gave our old ventilators to developing countries but the army still has hand pumps for use in the field. You would think this would be easy to make but I have no idea about retooling production lines.
    They're not making hand pumps, they are automatic, but don't use electricity. Apparently the government's big issue was that the normal ones are frequently disconnected from power to move the beds. This works because they have a big battery, but if they followed the same design now they wouldn't be able to source enough batteries, so they needed a different design.

    If not powered by electricity, what does power them? Genuinely interested.
  • coopster_the_1st
    coopster_the_1st Posts: 5,158
    joe2019 said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    What does anybody think to the possibility that prolonged exposure gives you a worse dose of the virus. With our medics having inadequate gear this could become crucial


    For sure. In Italy at least 2625 health workers have been infected (8.3% of all cases in the country) or total cases, 17 have died, as of 18/03/20.
    Here is a visual list of 14 of those brave doctors that died




  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 22,027
    kingstonian said:

    TheBigBean said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    TheBigBean said:

    In some rare positve news it sounds like a consortium of manufacturers will shortly be able to make 1000 new ventilators a day. They've solved the battery problem by removing the need for electics.


    Bizarre, I read a couple of weeks ago that we gave our old ventilators to developing countries but the army still has hand pumps for use in the field. You would think this would be easy to make but I have no idea about retooling production lines.
    They're not making hand pumps, they are automatic, but don't use electricity. Apparently the government's big issue was that the normal ones are frequently disconnected from power to move the beds. This works because they have a big battery, but if they followed the same design now they wouldn't be able to source enough batteries, so they needed a different design.

    If not powered by electricity, what does power them? Genuinely interested.
    "We think we have solved all the difficult bits, we are just making the last bits of a pneumatic timer now which hopefully will be ready in a few hours. If that works we can take all the electronics off it and it will just run on oxygen supply so it is very simple


    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-extraordinary-uk-effort-to-produce-thousands-more-ventilators-11961559

    I'm not an engineer so it is a bit over my head.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    rick_chasey said:

    Pross said:

    Reading back from the start is interesting. Surrey seemed to accept the Government policy for a couple of days before starting to criticise it on the third day, Rick was pretty laid back about it for a few days before stating he was unsure how he felt than going into 'bodies piling up in the street' mode. I think Big Bean has probably been the one who has appeared mildly sceptical of the Government policy throughout.

    Yeah that’s fair.

    I spent a lot of time working out what the U.K. govt was thinking going differently to others.
    What was your conclusion?
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,459
    Pross said:

    Reading back from the start is interesting..

    There was a time that cancelling MSR seemed ridiculous
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,597
    TheBigBean said:

    kingstonian said:

    TheBigBean said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    TheBigBean said:

    In some rare positve news it sounds like a consortium of manufacturers will shortly be able to make 1000 new ventilators a day. They've solved the battery problem by removing the need for electics.


    Bizarre, I read a couple of weeks ago that we gave our old ventilators to developing countries but the army still has hand pumps for use in the field. You would think this would be easy to make but I have no idea about retooling production lines.
    They're not making hand pumps, they are automatic, but don't use electricity. Apparently the government's big issue was that the normal ones are frequently disconnected from power to move the beds. This works because they have a big battery, but if they followed the same design now they wouldn't be able to source enough batteries, so they needed a different design.

    If not powered by electricity, what does power them? Genuinely interested.
    "We think we have solved all the difficult bits, we are just making the last bits of a pneumatic timer now which hopefully will be ready in a few hours. If that works we can take all the electronics off it and it will just run on oxygen supply so it is very simple


    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-extraordinary-uk-effort-to-produce-thousands-more-ventilators-11961559

    I'm not an engineer so it is a bit over my head.
    Powered by pneumatics? Seems quite appropriate!
  • morstar
    morstar Posts: 6,190
    It’s fair to say this has moved lightening quick. Only a couple of weeks ago we were thinking lads Ski trip to Italy may just still go ahead.
    My work went fully remote on Wednesday 11th and that was extremely proactive. Our perceptions are changing daily.
  • morstar
    morstar Posts: 6,190
    Can’t believe the IOC still thinks the olympics might happen this July. Not a cat in hells chance.
  • crescent
    crescent Posts: 1,201
    tailwindhome said:

    Pross said:

    Reading back from the start is interesting..

    There was a time that cancelling MSR seemed ridiculous
    I remember reading that and being disappointed but thinking at least the Giro would be ok. Changed days 😞
    Bianchi ImpulsoBMC Teammachine SLR02 01Trek Domane AL3“When I see an adult on a bicycle, I do not despair for the future of the human race. “ ~H.G. Wells Edit - "Unless it's a BMX"
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,597
    TheBigBean said:

    If you go back to some of the earlier threads you'll find some fairly gloomy comments from me. It's something I hoped I was wrong about, but sadly wasn't.

    Yep, I think you've been the most consistent person on the thread to be fair. My view has been that the Government were sticking to expert advice which isn't unreasonable but I do now think they need to speed up their response and maybe could have been a week ahead of where they are. It feels weird that just 9 days ago most sporting events were still due to carry on though and shows just how fast things have changed.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    surrey_commuter said:

    rick_chasey said:

    Pross said:

    Reading back from the start is interesting. Surrey seemed to accept the Government policy for a couple of days before starting to criticise it on the third day, Rick was pretty laid back about it for a few days before stating he was unsure how he felt than going into 'bodies piling up in the street' mode. I think Big Bean has probably been the one who has appeared mildly sceptical of the Government policy throughout.

    Yeah that’s fair.

    I spent a lot of time working out what the U.K. govt was thinking going differently to others.
    What was your conclusion?
    Going for the “perfect on paper” “sombrero” option, which about a week later was discredited by he’s of WHO.
    _
  • morstar
    morstar Posts: 6,190
    edited March 2020
    I personally was prepared to accept the expert advice.
    The theory of herd immunity does/did make some sense. Arguably it could still be proven correct in the long term but with current info it seems a massive gamble.
    If China truly has truly put a lid on this, it was absolutely the wrong decision but has China stopped it or temporarily suppressed it? It seems the former, in which case, can we replicate?
  • kingstonian
    kingstonian Posts: 2,847
    morstar said:

    I personally was prepared to accept the expert advice.
    The theory of herd immunity does/did make some sense. Arguably it could still be proven correct in the long term but with current info it seems a massive gamble.
    If China truly has truly put a lid on this, it was absolutely the wrong decision but has China stopped it or temporarily suppressed it? It seems the former, in which case, can we replicate?


    I’m not sure I can believe the stats coming out of China. There is a history of the Chinese authorities hiding bad news, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the true number of infections and deaths is way higher than they have admitted.
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,812
    edited March 2020
    morstar said:

    I personally was prepared to accept the expert advice.
    The theory of herd immunity does/did make some sense. Arguably it could still be proven correct in the long term but with current info it seems a massive gamble.
    If China truly has truly put a lid on this, it was absolutely the wrong decision but has China stopped it or temporarily suppressed it? It seems the former, in which case, can we replicate?

    Way too early to tell.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • coopster_the_1st
    coopster_the_1st Posts: 5,158
    morstar said:

    I personally was prepared to accept the expert advice.
    The theory of herd immunity does/did make some sense. Arguably it could still be proven correct in the long term but with current info it seems a massive gamble.
    If China truly has truly put a lid on this, it was absolutely the wrong decision but has China stopped it or temporarily suppressed it? It seems the former, in which case, can we replicate?

    You are doubting the UK experts but willing to trust the information coming out of China?

    WTF!
  • morstar
    morstar Posts: 6,190
    coopster_the_1st said:

    morstar said:

    I personally was prepared to accept the expert advice.
    The theory of herd immunity does/did make some sense. Arguably it could still be proven correct in the long term but with current info it seems a massive gamble.
    If China truly has truly put a lid on this, it was absolutely the wrong decision but has China stopped it or temporarily suppressed it? It seems the former, in which case, can we replicate?

    You are doubting the UK experts but willing to trust the information coming out of China?

    WTF!
    Read all the caveats in my post. ‘If’, ‘seems’, ‘long term’, ‘current info’
    I am open minded with no agenda to peddle.
  • coopster_the_1st
    coopster_the_1st Posts: 5,158
    morstar said:

    coopster_the_1st said:

    morstar said:

    I personally was prepared to accept the expert advice.
    The theory of herd immunity does/did make some sense. Arguably it could still be proven correct in the long term but with current info it seems a massive gamble.
    If China truly has truly put a lid on this, it was absolutely the wrong decision but has China stopped it or temporarily suppressed it? It seems the former, in which case, can we replicate?

    You are doubting the UK experts but willing to trust the information coming out of China?

    WTF!
    Read all the caveats in my post. ‘If’, ‘seems’, ‘long term’, ‘current info’
    I am open minded with no agenda to peddle.
    Read your post again.

    Firstly you are now doubting the UK Expert advice. Fair enough with that.

    However you are willing to accept data out of China.

    You can't even admit your mistake!
  • orraloon
    orraloon Posts: 13,271
    Hey Botster, remember that this country has had enough of experts. Innit.
  • morstar
    morstar Posts: 6,190
    coopster_the_1st said:

    morstar said:

    coopster_the_1st said:

    morstar said:

    I personally was prepared to accept the expert advice.
    The theory of herd immunity does/did make some sense. Arguably it could still be proven correct in the long term but with current info it seems a massive gamble.
    If China truly has truly put a lid on this, it was absolutely the wrong decision but has China stopped it or temporarily suppressed it? It seems the former, in which case, can we replicate?

    You are doubting the UK experts but willing to trust the information coming out of China?

    WTF!
    Read all the caveats in my post. ‘If’, ‘seems’, ‘long term’, ‘current info’
    I am open minded with no agenda to peddle.
    Read your post again.

    Firstly you are now doubting the UK Expert advice. Fair enough with that.

    However you are willing to accept data out of China.

    You can't even admit your mistake!
    Why don't you read my post?

    "ARGUABLY IT COULD STILL BE PROVEN CORRECT. " (Acknowledging they may be proven right despite current opinion)

    "IF CHINA TRULY HAS PUT A LID ON THIS" (Expressing doubt)

    I am playing with a straight bat. A school of thought developing seems to be that we got it wrong. ON CURRENT EVIDENCE, there seems to be a case for that which I acknowledge but I am conversely saying that long term that opinion may reverse.

    Stop trying to score points unless you are actually going to comprehend what you have read.
  • sampangolin
    sampangolin Posts: 9
    coopster_the_1st said:

    pblakeney said:

    coopster_the_1st said:

    kingstonian said:

    rjsterry said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    rick_chasey said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    tailwindhome said:

    Tracking deaths instead of positives


    That looks like we are about to take a decisive lead
    People also seem to forget the y axis isn’t linear...
    OK, I get yours (and RJST’s) points about the scale but why does this not mean that Boris’s plan is not working and our number of deaths is not outstripping countries who have tried to control the spread.

    Personally I would have learnt from the countries on the right of the graph.
    Absolute numbers are less relevant than per capita figures. There is also substantial variation in testing regimes so the numbers of cases do not accurately reflect total infections.

    The graph is trying to show rate of fatal infections over time. This is of interest given our strategy is to slow the rate of infection rather than prevent it. The graph isn't wrong but the other variables make it dangerous to draw conclusions on whether our strategy is working from this alone. I'm not sure a graph with just two variables will answer that question.

    Some other figures

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    Although even this has fairly obvious flaws. There is no way we have had 1300-odd cases and only 20 recovered - we just aren't counting the recoveries.

    Yep, I've been suspicious of the validity of the "Recoveries" number for a week or so now. The number of "recoveries" had remained at 18 for about 10 days, and only trickled up to 20 yesterday. The true number will be much higher.
    The only accurate number is deaths.

    Test numbers are now a pointless stat as are recovery stats as how many people have recovered from it at home?
    Looks like your 1% was clairvoyant. Who’s looking forward to 660,000 dead?

    “ Deputy Chief Medical Officer for England Dr Jenny Harries also warns against a "direct comparison" between virus case rates in Italy and the UK, saying this should be done with "caution".

    She says that the case fatality rate is around 10% in Italy, as opposed to 4% in the UK - but it depends how cases are counted.

    She says there are differences in testing, with more serious cases being tested in the UK, for example.

    She adds that they feel the eventual mortality rate for the virus will be around 1%.”
    I didn't predict 1% but keep making it up

    How many of those 660k are going to be double counted deaths?

    My guess would be 500k-600k based on 620k people dying each year
    I don't think you've thought this through. 600k ish is normal, fine.

    If its as bad as 1 percent that's 660k or so dying with/from covid.

    Some of those 660k would have been in that 600k, agreed.

    But now we have a health system at it's knees for months (with doctors and nurses who would probably not have been in that 600k also dying).

    That 600k 'normal' figure is only where it is because we have a functioning NHS.

    How many extra people, who would have recieved treatment and recovered, will now die? You have absolutely no idea. How dreadful will it be for those people making those decisions every day?

    And that's what you're saying we should just let happen?

    The more troubling option is that you have thought this through.
    sam

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