The big Coronavirus thread
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There's a new hospital being built near me that's due to open next year. They are now getting it ready to open immediately to provide an additional 360 beds. There were 5 deaths in my nearest hospital last night, it's by far the worst affected part of Wales, but there are still groups of people hanging around chatting on the streets.0
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A compilation of Italian mayors losing their sh!t about people flouting the quarantine ban.
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Johnson sounds too lackadaisical about idiots being selfish and not being responsible. Oh, and by the way please can nobody post in this thread anymore because I don't want you to.0
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He is so deeply libertarian he really cannot be someone who *tells people what to do*focuszing723 said:Johnson sounds too lackadaisical about idiots being selfish and not being responsible. Oh, and by the way please can nobody post in this thread anymore because I don't want you to.
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Agreed totally, as an example I saw one of consequences of business rates relaxing, Sainsburys get 536million...Pross said:
I assume it was more a case of putting things in place ready to announce the next phase e.g. you would think the financial support plans took a fair bit of discussion before suggesting pubs and restaurants close, either that or the Government showed uncharacteristic reactions by sorting it out in 24 hours.surrey_commuter said:rjsterry said:
The government changing tack rather conflicts with your 'British exceptionalism' theory. Adapting to changing circumstances is a good thing, no? Frankly, human history is a series of things we could have done better, and the public have as much responsibility as the government in this. We will only really know how much of it we got less wrong in a couple of years time or more.surrey_commuter said:So there seems to be a definite swing on here of people thinking Boris has not handled this as well as possible.
Standard apologies for DM link but it does show our extraordinary complacency and refusal to learn from others.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8133207/How-Boris-Johnsons-government-changed-tune-coronavirus-testing.html
It will not be years.
Very soon (days) we will discover if Boris can maintain the optimum level of infections to maximise the NHS without overwhelming it. Within a couple of weeks we will know if we are on a German or Italian trajectory.
What circumstances have changed in the last few weeks, or put another way, what do they know now that they did not know two weeks ago?
You can't look at the immediate effects of the virus in isolation, it needs consideration holistically to prevent consequences further down the line.
I dont see that the government plans seeming to 'change' is the result of changing tack or binning earlier ideas,approaches we are boiling frogs if you like metaphors
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From what I heard on the radio this morning France is, or has been, taking a similar approach to us. Other than Italy, the Far East, Spain and the US I haven't really heard much of what other countries are doing. At least our policy seems to have been considered which is more than can be said for the US.surrey_commuter said:
But that advice will not be unanimous and the rest of the world has received advice and done the opposite. We may be right and the rest of the world wrong but it is an incredibly arrogant assumption that most people would back away from and reassess their position.Pross said:
To be fair to Boris, following the advice of the people the Government pays to give advice on such matters doesn't really seem unreasonable. As I've asked above, why are people so sure we're doing it wrong rather than other countries?surrey_commuter said:based upon a lot of anecdotal evidence there will be a lot of companies ignoring Boris and shutting their offices next week.
Doing the opposite of the rest of the world is a very high risk strategy - as a known lying untrustworthy censored it does feel like he is gambling for the sake of it
On the offices closing, we've gone the opposite way and after a day of WFH for everyone today whilst the bosses took stock of the latest advice we're back to having the office open on Monday. That said, considering most of the office has spent time at Cheltenham Festival this week I'm not sure I want to go in.0 -
rjsterry said:
Absolute numbers are less relevant than per capita figures. There is also substantial variation in testing regimes so the numbers of cases do not accurately reflect total infections.surrey_commuter said:
OK, I get yours (and RJST’s) points about the scale but why does this not mean that Boris’s plan is not working and our number of deaths is not outstripping countries who have tried to control the spread.rick_chasey said:
People also seem to forget the y axis isn’t linear...surrey_commuter said:
That looks like we are about to take a decisive leadtailwindhome said:Tracking deaths instead of positives
Personally I would have learnt from the countries on the right of the graph.
The graph is trying to show rate of fatal infections over time. This is of interest given our strategy is to slow the rate of infection rather than prevent it. The graph isn't wrong but the other variables make it dangerous to draw conclusions on whether our strategy is working from this alone. I'm not sure a graph with just two variables will answer that question.
Some other figures
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Although even this has fairly obvious flaws. There is no way we have had 1300-odd cases and only 20 recovered - we just aren't counting the recoveries.
Yep, I've been suspicious of the validity of the "Recoveries" number for a week or so now. The number of "recoveries" had remained at 18 for about 10 days, and only trickled up to 20 yesterday. The true number will be much higher.0 -
From what I heard on the radio this morning France is, or has been, taking a similar approach to us. Other than Italy, the Far East, Spain and the US I haven't really heard much of what other countries are doing. At least our policy seems to have been considered which is more than can be said for the US.surrey_commuter said:
But that advice will not be unanimous and the rest of the world has received advice and done the opposite. We may be right and the rest of the world wrong but it is an incredibly arrogant assumption that most people would back away from and reassess their position.Pross said:
To be fair to Boris, following the advice of the people the Government pays to give advice on such matters doesn't really seem unreasonable. As I've asked above, why are people so sure we're doing it wrong rather than other countries?surrey_commuter said:based upon a lot of anecdotal evidence there will be a lot of companies ignoring Boris and shutting their offices next week.
Doing the opposite of the rest of the world is a very high risk strategy - as a known lying untrustworthy censored it does feel like he is gambling for the sake of it
On the offices closing, we've gone the opposite way and after a day of WFH for everyone today whilst the bosses took stock of the latest advice we're back to having the office open on Monday. That said, considering most of the office has spent time at Cheltenham Festival this week I'm not sure I want to go in.0 -
rjsterry said:
Absolute numbers are less relevant than per capita figures. There is also substantial variation in testing regimes so the numbers of cases do not accurately reflect total infections.surrey_commuter said:
OK, I get yours (and RJST’s) points about the scale but why does this not mean that Boris’s plan is not working and our number of deaths is not outstripping countries who have tried to control the spread.rick_chasey said:
People also seem to forget the y axis isn’t linear...surrey_commuter said:
That looks like we are about to take a decisive leadtailwindhome said:Tracking deaths instead of positives
Personally I would have learnt from the countries on the right of the graph.
The graph is trying to show rate of fatal infections over time. This is of interest given our strategy is to slow the rate of infection rather than prevent it. The graph isn't wrong but the other variables make it dangerous to draw conclusions on whether our strategy is working from this alone. I'm not sure a graph with just two variables will answer that question.
Some other figures
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Although even this has fairly obvious flaws. There is no way we have had 1300-odd cases and only 20 recovered - we just aren't counting the recoveries.
Yep, I've been suspicious of the validity of the "Recoveries" number for a week or so now. The number of "recoveries" had remained at 18 for about 10 days, and only trickled up to 20 yesterday. The true number will be much higher.0 -
Why are people still posting I said please don't post!0
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He's just not the right person to sell the message is he.rick_chasey said:
He is so deeply libertarian he really cannot be someone who *tells people what to do*focuszing723 said:Johnson sounds too lackadaisical about idiots being selfish and not being responsible. Oh, and by the way please can nobody post in this thread anymore because I don't want you to.
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Sorry focuszing723
If BoJo thinks people are going to voluntarily isolate or practice social distancing he needs to take a look at the sheer volume of people all together today on the Brecon Beacons and in Snowdonia, the government is deluded to the extreme.0 -
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I have absolutely no idea why posts I made a few days ago have reposted on here twice today, all very weird.0
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Some of these press conferences each week should be held with just the CMO/CSO as they explain the detail better, as would be expected because it is their expertise. We may also get better questions from the journalists as well.focuszing723 said:Johnson sounds too lackadaisical about idiots being selfish and not being responsible. Oh, and by the way please can nobody post in this thread anymore because I don't want you to.
However, Boris would then be massively criticised for not being there to answer questions.
He just can't win whatever he does!0 -
The only accurate number is deaths.kingstonian said:rjsterry said:
Absolute numbers are less relevant than per capita figures. There is also substantial variation in testing regimes so the numbers of cases do not accurately reflect total infections.surrey_commuter said:
OK, I get yours (and RJST’s) points about the scale but why does this not mean that Boris’s plan is not working and our number of deaths is not outstripping countries who have tried to control the spread.rick_chasey said:
People also seem to forget the y axis isn’t linear...surrey_commuter said:
That looks like we are about to take a decisive leadtailwindhome said:Tracking deaths instead of positives
Personally I would have learnt from the countries on the right of the graph.
The graph is trying to show rate of fatal infections over time. This is of interest given our strategy is to slow the rate of infection rather than prevent it. The graph isn't wrong but the other variables make it dangerous to draw conclusions on whether our strategy is working from this alone. I'm not sure a graph with just two variables will answer that question.
Some other figures
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Although even this has fairly obvious flaws. There is no way we have had 1300-odd cases and only 20 recovered - we just aren't counting the recoveries.
Yep, I've been suspicious of the validity of the "Recoveries" number for a week or so now. The number of "recoveries" had remained at 18 for about 10 days, and only trickled up to 20 yesterday. The true number will be much higher.
Test numbers are now a pointless stat as are recovery stats as how many people have recovered from it at home?0 -
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France are in a deeper lockdown than the UK. I thought I read today they have banned cycling, etc.Pross said:
From what I heard on the radio this morning France is, or has been, taking a similar approach to us. Other than Italy, the Far East, Spain and the US I haven't really heard much of what other countries are doing. At least our policy seems to have been considered which is more than can be said for the US.surrey_commuter said:
But that advice will not be unanimous and the rest of the world has received advice and done the opposite. We may be right and the rest of the world wrong but it is an incredibly arrogant assumption that most people would back away from and reassess their position.Pross said:
To be fair to Boris, following the advice of the people the Government pays to give advice on such matters doesn't really seem unreasonable. As I've asked above, why are people so sure we're doing it wrong rather than other countries?surrey_commuter said:based upon a lot of anecdotal evidence there will be a lot of companies ignoring Boris and shutting their offices next week.
Doing the opposite of the rest of the world is a very high risk strategy - as a known lying untrustworthy censored it does feel like he is gambling for the sake of it
On the offices closing, we've gone the opposite way and after a day of WFH for everyone today whilst the bosses took stock of the latest advice we're back to having the office open on Monday. That said, considering most of the office has spent time at Cheltenham Festival this week I'm not sure I want to go in.
The reason you are not hearing much detail of what many other countries are doing is because it does not create the sensationalism that the media needs.0 -
Why have several of my old posts come up as though I've just posted them?0
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Not just me then?kingstonian said:I have absolutely no idea why posts I made a few days ago have reposted on here twice today, all very weird.
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I have friends in France. They have been in complete lockdown for a week. You are only allowed outdoors for essentials such as food or medicine. You need to complete a government form to produce if you are found outdoors and fined if everything is not in order.Pross said:
From what I heard on the radio this morning France is, or has been, taking a similar approach to us. Other than Italy, the Far East, Spain and the US I haven't really heard much of what other countries are doing. At least our policy seems to have been considered which is more than can be said for the US.surrey_commuter said:
But that advice will not be unanimous and the rest of the world has received advice and done the opposite. We may be right and the rest of the world wrong but it is an incredibly arrogant assumption that most people would back away from and reassess their position.Pross said:
To be fair to Boris, following the advice of the people the Government pays to give advice on such matters doesn't really seem unreasonable. As I've asked above, why are people so sure we're doing it wrong rather than other countries?surrey_commuter said:based upon a lot of anecdotal evidence there will be a lot of companies ignoring Boris and shutting their offices next week.
Doing the opposite of the rest of the world is a very high risk strategy - as a known lying untrustworthy censored it does feel like he is gambling for the sake of it
On the offices closing, we've gone the opposite way and after a day of WFH for everyone today whilst the bosses took stock of the latest advice we're back to having the office open on Monday. That said, considering most of the office has spent time at Cheltenham Festival this week I'm not sure I want to go in.The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
Looks like your 1% was clairvoyant. Who’s looking forward to 660,000 dead?coopster_the_1st said:
The only accurate number is deaths.kingstonian said:rjsterry said:
Absolute numbers are less relevant than per capita figures. There is also substantial variation in testing regimes so the numbers of cases do not accurately reflect total infections.surrey_commuter said:
OK, I get yours (and RJST’s) points about the scale but why does this not mean that Boris’s plan is not working and our number of deaths is not outstripping countries who have tried to control the spread.rick_chasey said:
People also seem to forget the y axis isn’t linear...surrey_commuter said:
That looks like we are about to take a decisive leadtailwindhome said:Tracking deaths instead of positives
Personally I would have learnt from the countries on the right of the graph.
The graph is trying to show rate of fatal infections over time. This is of interest given our strategy is to slow the rate of infection rather than prevent it. The graph isn't wrong but the other variables make it dangerous to draw conclusions on whether our strategy is working from this alone. I'm not sure a graph with just two variables will answer that question.
Some other figures
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Although even this has fairly obvious flaws. There is no way we have had 1300-odd cases and only 20 recovered - we just aren't counting the recoveries.
Yep, I've been suspicious of the validity of the "Recoveries" number for a week or so now. The number of "recoveries" had remained at 18 for about 10 days, and only trickled up to 20 yesterday. The true number will be much higher.
Test numbers are now a pointless stat as are recovery stats as how many people have recovered from it at home?
“ Deputy Chief Medical Officer for England Dr Jenny Harries also warns against a "direct comparison" between virus case rates in Italy and the UK, saying this should be done with "caution".
She says that the case fatality rate is around 10% in Italy, as opposed to 4% in the UK - but it depends how cases are counted.
She says there are differences in testing, with more serious cases being tested in the UK, for example.
She adds that they feel the eventual mortality rate for the virus will be around 1%.”
The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
Check back to the start (it is frightening how short a timeframe it is) and you will see I was a lone voice, now the non-Boris argument is getting louder and his supporters piping down.rick_chasey said:
Come on SC that’s not fair. Quite a few of us are agreeing with you.surrey_commuter said:
The general consensus on this thread is that there is nothing to be learnt from other countries and that poor old Boris is working is a bubble supported only by case if models.pblakeney said:I am confused by the use of the word "if" in any discussions on what is going to happen.
If you want to know what is going to happen in the next one to two weeks then simply look at the news today from Italy, Spain and France.
It doesn't take a genius to see that we are following them.
If you disagree it is because of personal animosity, though I suspect patriotism will rear it’s ugly head.
I don’t usually care about the constitution and the machinations of Parliament but it does intrigue me the fuss we have about going to war, whereas for a pandemic the PM can embark on such a self-destructive path with not a question asked until Corbyn piped up two months in.0 -
TheBigBean said:
In some rare positve news it sounds like a consortium of manufacturers will shortly be able to make 1000 new ventilators a day. They've solved the battery problem by removing the need for electics.
Bizarre, I read a couple of weeks ago that we gave our old ventilators to developing countries but the army still has hand pumps for use in the field. You would think this would be easy to make but I have no idea about retooling production lines.0 -
What does anybody think to the possibility that prolonged exposure gives you a worse dose of the virus. With our medics having inadequate gear this could become crucial0
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I didn't predict 1% but keep making it uppblakeney said:
Looks like your 1% was clairvoyant. Who’s looking forward to 660,000 dead?coopster_the_1st said:
The only accurate number is deaths.kingstonian said:rjsterry said:
Absolute numbers are less relevant than per capita figures. There is also substantial variation in testing regimes so the numbers of cases do not accurately reflect total infections.surrey_commuter said:
OK, I get yours (and RJST’s) points about the scale but why does this not mean that Boris’s plan is not working and our number of deaths is not outstripping countries who have tried to control the spread.rick_chasey said:
People also seem to forget the y axis isn’t linear...surrey_commuter said:
That looks like we are about to take a decisive leadtailwindhome said:Tracking deaths instead of positives
Personally I would have learnt from the countries on the right of the graph.
The graph is trying to show rate of fatal infections over time. This is of interest given our strategy is to slow the rate of infection rather than prevent it. The graph isn't wrong but the other variables make it dangerous to draw conclusions on whether our strategy is working from this alone. I'm not sure a graph with just two variables will answer that question.
Some other figures
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Although even this has fairly obvious flaws. There is no way we have had 1300-odd cases and only 20 recovered - we just aren't counting the recoveries.
Yep, I've been suspicious of the validity of the "Recoveries" number for a week or so now. The number of "recoveries" had remained at 18 for about 10 days, and only trickled up to 20 yesterday. The true number will be much higher.
Test numbers are now a pointless stat as are recovery stats as how many people have recovered from it at home?
“ Deputy Chief Medical Officer for England Dr Jenny Harries also warns against a "direct comparison" between virus case rates in Italy and the UK, saying this should be done with "caution".
She says that the case fatality rate is around 10% in Italy, as opposed to 4% in the UK - but it depends how cases are counted.
She says there are differences in testing, with more serious cases being tested in the UK, for example.
She adds that they feel the eventual mortality rate for the virus will be around 1%.”
How many of those 660k are going to be double counted deaths?
My guess would be 500k-600k based on 620k people dying each year0 -
I checked back to the start and your first post on this thread was "The UK Govt is balancing public health priorities with economic priorities. If the people of Ireland disagree with this trade off then they need to pressure their own Govt to prioritise public health."surrey_commuter said:
Check back to the start (it is frightening how short a timeframe it is) and you will see I was a lone voice, now the non-Boris argument is getting louder and his supporters piping down.rick_chasey said:
Come on SC that’s not fair. Quite a few of us are agreeing with you.surrey_commuter said:
The general consensus on this thread is that there is nothing to be learnt from other countries and that poor old Boris is working is a bubble supported only by case if models.pblakeney said:I am confused by the use of the word "if" in any discussions on what is going to happen.
If you want to know what is going to happen in the next one to two weeks then simply look at the news today from Italy, Spain and France.
It doesn't take a genius to see that we are following them.
If you disagree it is because of personal animosity, though I suspect patriotism will rear it’s ugly head.
I don’t usually care about the constitution and the machinations of Parliament but it does intrigue me the fuss we have about going to war, whereas for a pandemic the PM can embark on such a self-destructive path with not a question asked until Corbyn piped up two months in.
You then went on to agree with me that it sounded a reasonable approach but that you felt we should be closing schools.0
