The big Coronavirus thread

tailwindhome

Y'know those 'flattening the curve' slides with the capacity line half way up the y axis.

awavey

rick_chasey said:

250,000 people just in the U.K. Christ.

as I said scary numbers,and its 500,000 if we do nothing, 2.2million in the US...last week 50,000 was considered the worst case in the UK and 10,000 the average

awavey

btw you also realise the red line is not the X axis, thats the nhs icu capacity

tailwindhome

awavey said:

btw you also realise the red line is not the X axis, thats the nhs icu capacity

Yes
But I must admit my brain couldn't initially process the enormity of that fact

Stevo_666

awavey said:

btw you also realise the red line is not the X axis, thats the nhs icu capacity

So basically whatever we do, if that modelling is anywhere near accurate then healthcare system will be completely overwhelmed.

Pross

Is there anything in that modelling regarding how many of the predicted deaths would have occurred in the short to medium term in any case given all the advice is still that it is almost exclusively those with underlying health issues that are dying? Apparently one person dies of lung disease every 5 minutes in the UK as it is so would it include those if CV brings it about sooner?

Stevo_666

Pross said:

Is there anything in that modelling regarding how many of the predicted deaths would have occurred in the short to medium term in any case given all the advice is still that it is almost exclusively those with underlying health issues that are dying? Apparently one person dies of lung disease every 5 minutes in the UK as it is so would it include those if CV brings it about sooner?

Not sure Pross, but in a normal year over 600,000 people die in the UK if my take on last years population and mortality rate stats are right.

kingstongraham

Why are they still waiting to mandate restrictions? If that's the potential reality, then every day counts, like it did last week.

awavey

kingstongraham said:

Why are they still waiting to mandate restrictions? If that's the potential reality, then every day counts, like it did last week.

because those restrictions simply wont last until the point on the graph which says we are back to normal,its nearly 6months through summer. my guess is we still have 2-3 weeks to ramp up to that point, depending on how the virus now spreads and where we are right now might be trying to extend that 2-3 week ramp a little bit more,so its less vertical

coopster_the_1st

I understand the need to protect the NHS from collapsing but how long do we allow 60m to suffer to protect less than 0.6% of the population and the measures being taken may only move that number by 0.1% or 0 2%

We will not start to recover from this until this reality becomes accepted.

surrey_commuter

This thread is only six days old.

Am I right in thinking the PM has binned his strategy already?

coopster_the_1st

dabber said:

Stevo_666 said:

This is just a bloody dreadful situation to be in for people with elderly relatives and I know quite a few on here are in that position. The only possible positive spin you can put on it is that around 92% of those in their 70's and 85% of those in their 80's survive this virus.

A weird situation for the so called elderly as well. I'm 72, ride around 100 miles a week... road,off-road and turbo. No underlying illness. Probably massively fitter than the majority of those in the their mid-50's (or younger).
My wife is 70, again very fit, pilates, body balance etc 3 times a week, both walk regularly as well. No underlying illness.
What are we supposed to do? Vegetate in the house for 4 months, lose our fitness both physically and mentally?
The "70" threshold is purely an artificial number.

The reality is that if you require hospitalisation from C19 when the NHS is under stress, there is a good chance that treatment will prioritised for younger people.

However all around the world, not yet in the UK, governments are forcing the fit like yourself into a sedantry lifestyle. I've of the view that any social gatherings should be stopped so that would mean no pilates, body balance, etc but isolated exercise like cycling, running and walking should be promoted. Our best chance to survive this is being fit and having a healthy respiratory system. Governments are reacting to the vulnerable but are risking moving many more people into this category by shutting down their healthy lifestyles

surrey_commuter

How come the Govt was not trying to source ventilators two months, or even two weeks, ago.

TheBigBean

surrey_commuter said:

How come the Govt was not trying to source ventilators two months, or even two weeks, ago.

I don't understand that. I think far too many people bought into the iceberg theory. Still, it all seems to be deck chairs on the titanic to me.

rick_chasey

surrey_commuter said:

This thread is only six days old.

Am I right in thinking the PM has binned his strategy already?

Yes

rick_chasey

surrey_commuter said:

How come the Govt was not trying to source ventilators two months, or even two weeks, ago.

From the dr I spoke to yesterday: king Cnut.

rick_chasey

coopster_the_1st said:

dabber said:

Stevo_666 said:

This is just a bloody dreadful situation to be in for people with elderly relatives and I know quite a few on here are in that position. The only possible positive spin you can put on it is that around 92% of those in their 70's and 85% of those in their 80's survive this virus.

A weird situation for the so called elderly as well. I'm 72, ride around 100 miles a week... road,off-road and turbo. No underlying illness. Probably massively fitter than the majority of those in the their mid-50's (or younger).
My wife is 70, again very fit, pilates, body balance etc 3 times a week, both walk regularly as well. No underlying illness.
What are we supposed to do? Vegetate in the house for 4 months, lose our fitness both physically and mentally?
The "70" threshold is purely an artificial number.

The reality is that if you require hospitalisation from C19 when the NHS is under stress, there is a good chance that treatment will prioritised for younger people.

However all around the world, not yet in the UK, governments are forcing the fit like yourself into a sedantry lifestyle. I've of the view that any social gatherings should be stopped so that would mean no pilates, body balance, etc but isolated exercise like cycling, running and walking should be promoted. Our best chance to survive this is being fit and having a healthy respiratory system. Governments are reacting to the vulnerable but are risking moving many more people into this category by shutting down their healthy lifestyles

This is wrong and stupid.

You want to extend the area under the red line as much as possible.

pblakeney

coopster_the_1st said:

I understand the need to protect the NHS from collapsing but how long do we allow 60m to suffer to protect less than 0.6% of the population and the measures being taken may only move that number by 0.1% or 0 2%

We will not start to recover from this until this reality becomes accepted.

0.8% of the population is “only” 520,000.
Hope your family aren’t amongst them.

focuszing723

The test to tell if people have recovered and now immunity couldn't come sooner, so people can get out there and carry on with confidence. Especially people in social support services, NHS. Currently any sign of a symptom in a household and all of them are out of action for a couple of weeks!

Pross

surrey_commuter said:

This thread is only six days old.

Am I right in thinking the PM has binned his strategy already?

Has he? When I heard the CSA talking last week he was talking about moving away from containment to slowing the rate of spread when the time was right. Isn't this just that change of focus? The main change seems to be that he has belatedly accepted that he needs to personally be seen communicating with the country.

I'm still not sure what people think other countries are doing that is better. Singapore, South Korea and Japan seem to be having better results but other than that the world seems to be on variations of the same theme as us. There really does seem to be a very fine line between minimising loss of life and minimising catastrophic impact on the economy and I'm not sure it's possible to walk it.

tailwindhome

rick_chasey

Pross said:

surrey_commuter said:

This thread is only six days old.

Am I right in thinking the PM has binned his strategy already?

Has he? When I heard the CSA talking last week he was talking about moving away from containment to slowing the rate of spread when the time was right. Isn't this just that change of focus? The main change seems to be that he has belatedly accepted that he needs to personally be seen communicating with the country.

I'm still not sure what people think other countries are doing that is better. Singapore, South Korea and Japan seem to be having better results but other than that the world seems to be on variations of the same theme as us. There really does seem to be a very fine line between minimising loss of life and minimising catastrophic impact on the economy and I'm not sure it's possible to walk it.

They’re doing a lot different.

coopster_the_1st

pblakeney said:

coopster_the_1st said:

I understand the need to protect the NHS from collapsing but how long do we allow 60m to suffer to protect less than 0.6% of the population and the measures being taken may only move that number by 0.1% or 0 2%

We will not start to recover from this until this reality becomes accepted.

0.8% of the population is “only” 520,000.
Hope your family aren’t amongst them.

Yes, my father is top of the list of the most vulnerable and I also have many wider family in the vulnerable group. However for all those that I refer to as vulnerable, there is at least a 4-1 ratio that are going to have to somehow pick up the peices after this.

I have accepted that if those vulnerable family members catch the virus they are likely to die. I cannot accept the damage to my family and wider family that this is going to cause for trying to move the number that die by 0.1%, to maybe give them 2, 3, 5 more years of life.

This is the stark reality of this situation.

I 'm aware currently the measures are in place to stop the NHS from collapsing but hard choices are going to have to be made soon. We won't like the answers we choose but it is better for those of us that have to live with the consequences for decades to come

pblakeney

Just heartwarming, isn’t it? 🙄

tailwindhome

Hey Coop.

You know Thanos was the bad guy, yeah?

coopster_the_1st

tailwindhome said:

Hey Coop.

You know Thanos was the bad guy, yeah?

Your Marvel reference is lost on me.

Denial just means you are making the hurt last longer. In this situation we are severely hurting 60,000,000 for probably a difference of 60,000

rick_chasey

That’s an entire town you muppet. Shut up.

coopster_the_1st

rick_chasey said:

That’s an entire town you muppet. Shut up.

Or an entire country...

kingstonian

I'd want to be doing everything in my power to reduce the 60,000 number as much as possible.

To put it into context, I happen to support Spurs and the capacity of our new stadium is just over 60,000. I can't fathom making a decision that would knowingly result in the death of that number of people.

coopster_the_1st

kingstonian said:

I'd want to be doing everything in my power to reduce the 60,000 number as much as possible.

To put it into context, I happen to support Spurs and the capacity of our new stadium is just over 60,000. I can't fathom making a decision that would knowingly result in the death of that number of people.

Someone is going to have to make it at some point.

I suspect this is where Parliament will come into decision making and make the decision, probably after being asked a number of times though