The big Coronavirus thread

kingstongraham

Dorset_Boy said:

There is no suggestion from the medical experts that you can get it more than once at the moment.
WRT Boris, what is best for the people of the country will be best for him.
Many of the measures now in place in other countries will come in here, but only when the experts think the time is right. Why would we now be doing what Italy or Spain are now doing if it is accepted we are 1, 2, 3 4 or more weeks behind them?

Because the number of deaths in Italy has gone from 366 to 1,809 in the last week?

surrey_commuter

kingstongraham said:

Dorset_Boy said:

There is no suggestion from the medical experts that you can get it more than once at the moment.
WRT Boris, what is best for the people of the country will be best for him.
Many of the measures now in place in other countries will come in here, but only when the experts think the time is right. Why would we now be doing what Italy or Spain are now doing if it is accepted we are 1, 2, 3 4 or more weeks behind them?

Because the number of deaths in Italy has gone from 366 to 1,809 in the last week?

and if Italy and Spain knew then what they know now would they have made these decisions earlier.

I think Boris is prepared to bet on a ballsy decision so that he can go down in history as the leader who did best in the Great Coronavirus Crisis. If it does not work out then he can shrug his shoulder and shuffle off stage right.

TheBigBean

Pross said:

TheBigBean said:

I understand that the 2011 UK policy paper on pandemics is quite informative for those that wish to understand more.

2011? You must be joking, I read on Facebook that the Government are making it up as they go along and it's all wrong.

It's much older than that. The 2011 version was simply updated with lessons learned from the 2009 pandemic. The one thing it should probably have been updated for is social media and your facebook friends.

DeVlaeminck

elbowloh said:

kingstongraham said:

Will there ever be testing in this country of people who might or might not have had it? I've no idea if I have it very mildly or not at all - it would be useful in the future for people to know if they are no longer any risk.

There appears to be some evidence that just because you've had it that you would then be immune. Indeed one of the theories around why its spreading so quickly is because individuals are getting it multiple times.

I read that corona type viruses tended not to mutate as quickly as your typical flu virus and so immunity lasts much longer, maybe not forever but you typically aren't going to be getting it year after year let alone several times already.

DeVlaeminck

Also read re. herd immunity - the percentage of people that need to be immune depends on the contagiousness of the disease. Measles apparently is very contagious as the particles are so small they remain airborne for some time and so you need the oft quoted 95% vaccination rate. Polio is less so, apparently this corona is also less so hence the lower level of immunity govt seems to be working on.

elbowloh

Dorset_Boy said:

There is no suggestion from the medical experts that you can get it more than once at the moment.
WRT Boris, what is best for the people of the country will be best for him.
Many of the measures now in place in other countries will come in here, but only when the experts think the time is right. Why would we now be doing what Italy or Spain are now doing if it is accepted we are 1, 2, 3 4 or more weeks behind them?

It was mentioned in an article in the Times this morning, but it's behind a paywall. I did find this:

https://www.cleveland.com/metro/2020/02/can-you-catch-coronavirus-more-than-once-officials-urge-caution-covid-19-news-roundup.html

https://globalnews.ca/news/6623287/coronavirus-multiple-infections/

The above articles have suggested that the virus can lay dormant (so you test negative) then go live again and you can spread the virus even though you think you are clear. Either way, whether it lays dormant or you get it a second time, there is a danger of spreading once you've supposedly been given the all clear.

kingstonian

surrey_commuter said:

kingstongraham said:

Dorset_Boy said:

There is no suggestion from the medical experts that you can get it more than once at the moment.
WRT Boris, what is best for the people of the country will be best for him.
Many of the measures now in place in other countries will come in here, but only when the experts think the time is right. Why would we now be doing what Italy or Spain are now doing if it is accepted we are 1, 2, 3 4 or more weeks behind them?

Because the number of deaths in Italy has gone from 366 to 1,809 in the last week?

and if Italy and Spain knew then what they know now would they have made these decisions earlier.

I think Boris is prepared to bet on a ballsy decision so that he can go down in history as the leader who did best in the Great Coronavirus Crisis. If it does not work out then he can shrug his shoulder and shuffle off stage right.

Really don't believe he is callous. And if he was betting on a ballsy decision in the hope it made him look good, why would the others that have been present in COBRA meetings, including Sturgeon, go along with it? Politically she is the last person I'd expect to be siding with Boris, but she's been pretty clear that the policy is the right one and is science-led, not dreamt up by one politician hoping to look good.

TheBigBean

surrey_commuter said:

TheBigBean said:

I understand that the 2011 UK policy paper on pandemics is quite informative for those that wish to understand more.

as all virus's are different why do you think this planning doc outweighs the evidence on the ground from countries 1-2 months ahead of us?

You think the policy paper only considers one strain? You'll be shocked to hear that whilst it thinks it is mostly likely to be a flu strain, it thinks a SARS virus is entirely possible.

I haven't had time to read it, but from I have heard it is quite persuasive. Apparently, the impact of cancelling flights and mass events is all considered in terms of how long it would delay the spread for (spoiler - not long)

One of the signs that the UK has learnt from elsewhere is the different approach taken to schools. That children either do not contract it or have very mild cases should be a significant factor in deciding whether to close all the schools.

rjsterry

surrey_commuter said:

kingstongraham said:

Dorset_Boy said:

There is no suggestion from the medical experts that you can get it more than once at the moment.
WRT Boris, what is best for the people of the country will be best for him.
Many of the measures now in place in other countries will come in here, but only when the experts think the time is right. Why would we now be doing what Italy or Spain are now doing if it is accepted we are 1, 2, 3 4 or more weeks behind them?

Because the number of deaths in Italy has gone from 366 to 1,809 in the last week?

and if Italy and Spain knew then what they know now would they have made these decisions earlier.

I think Boris is prepared to bet on a ballsy decision so that he can go down in history as the leader who did best in the Great Coronavirus Crisis. If it does not work out then he can shrug his shoulder and shuffle off stage right.

I think you're mistaking the kind of leader he is. Above all else he is a delegator. When he wants glory he goes for overblown infrastructure - bridges, cable cars, etc.

Separately, I find it odd that we are looking at Italy and saying its a mistake not to copy them. On what level has their plan worked?

surrey_commuter

rjsterry said:

surrey_commuter said:

kingstongraham said:

Dorset_Boy said:

There is no suggestion from the medical experts that you can get it more than once at the moment.
WRT Boris, what is best for the people of the country will be best for him.
Many of the measures now in place in other countries will come in here, but only when the experts think the time is right. Why would we now be doing what Italy or Spain are now doing if it is accepted we are 1, 2, 3 4 or more weeks behind them?

Because the number of deaths in Italy has gone from 366 to 1,809 in the last week?

and if Italy and Spain knew then what they know now would they have made these decisions earlier.

I think Boris is prepared to bet on a ballsy decision so that he can go down in history as the leader who did best in the Great Coronavirus Crisis. If it does not work out then he can shrug his shoulder and shuffle off stage right.

I think you're mistaking the kind of leader he is. Above all else he is a delegator. When he wants glory he goes for overblown infrastructure - bridges, cable cars, etc.

Separately, I find it odd that we are looking at Italy and saying its a mistake not to copy them. On what level has their plan worked?

wrong way round, Italy probably thinks that it should have gone all in earlier rather than finding out it was totally out of control.

mrfpb

Italy identified their first case just one day before us. It's probably luck that has kept our spread lower rather than policy - we don't have the January/February tourist boost that Italy has (Venice Festital, Milan Fashion Week, Skiing holidays). If the pandemic arrived the week before Galstonbury, we'd be seriously worse off.

But "Lockdown" isn't really enforceable. Willingness of the public to comply is a factor in developing UK policy.

kingstonian

The trick that Italy missed, until the horse had bolted and was some way down the road, was realising that Coronavirus was present. In the early stages they had multiple cases but the health authorities weren't diagnosing it as such, so containment of individuals wasn't happening and thus it spread far more swiftly.

In the UK, however, early cases were suspected and diagnosed fairly quickly. Once a case was diagnosed, the contact points of those early cases were rapidly identified to enable those people to be tested and potentially put in self isolation (the UK authorities used the same techniques to do this as were tested and used in the run up to the 2012 Olympics to identify potential terrorists).

pblakeney

mrfpb said:

Italy identified their first case just one day before us. It's probably luck that has kept our spread lower rather than policy - we don't have the January/February tourist boost that Italy has (Venice Festital, Milan Fashion Week, Skiing holidays). If the pandemic arrived the week before Galstonbury, we'd be seriously worse off.

But "Lockdown" isn't really enforceable. Willingness of the public to comply is a factor in developing UK policy.

We will be able to observe Spain to see if a lockdown can be enforced. No cycling in Mallorca apparently.

Pross

TheBigBean said:

Pross said:

TheBigBean said:

I understand that the 2011 UK policy paper on pandemics is quite informative for those that wish to understand more.

2011? You must be joking, I read on Facebook that the Government are making it up as they go along and it's all wrong.

It's much older than that. The 2011 version was simply updated with lessons learned from the 2009 pandemic. The one thing it should probably have been updated for is social media and your facebook friends.

In case it wasn't obvious I was being sarcastic. To listen to / read many comments you would think there wasn't a policy and either the experts are making it up as they go or the government aren't doing anything. As someone said a few pages back, one of the most difficult courses of action for a politician is to not take action just so they can be seen to be doing something.

coopster_the_1st

pblakeney said:

mrfpb said:

Italy identified their first case just one day before us. It's probably luck that has kept our spread lower rather than policy - we don't have the January/February tourist boost that Italy has (Venice Festital, Milan Fashion Week, Skiing holidays). If the pandemic arrived the week before Galstonbury, we'd be seriously worse off.

But "Lockdown" isn't really enforceable. Willingness of the public to comply is a factor in developing UK policy.

We will be able to observe Spain to see if a lockdown can be enforced. No cycling in Mallorca apparently.

No outdoor activiities eg Surfing, cycling, walking, at all in any part of Spain.

All non-food shops, bars, cafes,, restaurants and gyms, etc closed

elbowloh

The banning of outdoor activities seems a bit bizarre, particularly if you are doing it on your own. The evidence points towards it being very unlikely to be contracted out in the open air if you keep your distance.

mrfpb

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-51903319?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=5e6f788f3cfb2a06519c157a&Princess Anne to continue engagements&2020-03-16T13:14:19.206Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:35f6d074-f37f-4737-9c6d-55e1a9e5a69d&pinned_post_asset_id=5e6f788f3cfb2a06519c157a&pinned_post_type=share

Princess Anne (age 70) doesn't seem keen on self-solating

focuszing723

elbowloh said:

The banning of outdoor activities seems a bit bizarre, particularly if you are doing it on your own. The evidence points towards it being very unlikely to be contracted out in the open air if you keep your distance.

Exercise, fresh air and keeping your weight down helps peoples immune system too. I guess it depends where you live as well.

surrey_commuter

pblakeney said:

mrfpb said:

Italy identified their first case just one day before us. It's probably luck that has kept our spread lower rather than policy - we don't have the January/February tourist boost that Italy has (Venice Festital, Milan Fashion Week, Skiing holidays). If the pandemic arrived the week before Galstonbury, we'd be seriously worse off.

But "Lockdown" isn't really enforceable. Willingness of the public to comply is a factor in developing UK policy.

We will be able to observe Spain to see if a lockdown can be enforced. No cycling in Mallorca apparently.

France going into lockdown tomorrow evening for 45 days.

orraloon

BBC saying Macron denies that. Due to address nation this evening.

ddraver

focuszing723 said:

elbowloh said:

The banning of outdoor activities seems a bit bizarre, particularly if you are doing it on your own. The evidence points towards it being very unlikely to be contracted out in the open air if you keep your distance.

Exercise, fresh air and keeping your weight down helps peoples immune system too. I guess it depends where you live as well.

It's becasue there is no ambulance to come and rescue you when you Spoon it.

That's why

Longshot

ddraver said:

focuszing723 said:

elbowloh said:

The banning of outdoor activities seems a bit bizarre, particularly if you are doing it on your own. The evidence points towards it being very unlikely to be contracted out in the open air if you keep your distance.

Exercise, fresh air and keeping your weight down helps peoples immune system too. I guess it depends where you live as well.

It's becasue there is no ambulance to come and rescue you when you Spoon it.

That's why

...and, even if there were, they don't want you diverting medical staff's attention away from Covid cases.

pblakeney

Longshot said:

ddraver said:

focuszing723 said:

elbowloh said:

The banning of outdoor activities seems a bit bizarre, particularly if you are doing it on your own. The evidence points towards it being very unlikely to be contracted out in the open air if you keep your distance.

Exercise, fresh air and keeping your weight down helps peoples immune system too. I guess it depends where you live as well.

It's becasue there is no ambulance to come and rescue you when you Spoon it.

That's why

...and, even if there were, they don't want you diverting medical staff's attention away from Covid cases.

Doesn’t address why the Spanish are essentially keeping everyone indoors. You are not even allowed to go for a walk. Are they concerned by trip hazards?

rjsterry

surrey_commuter said:

pblakeney said:

mrfpb said:

Italy identified their first case just one day before us. It's probably luck that has kept our spread lower rather than policy - we don't have the January/February tourist boost that Italy has (Venice Festital, Milan Fashion Week, Skiing holidays). If the pandemic arrived the week before Galstonbury, we'd be seriously worse off.

But "Lockdown" isn't really enforceable. Willingness of the public to comply is a factor in developing UK policy.

We will be able to observe Spain to see if a lockdown can be enforced. No cycling in Mallorca apparently.

France going into lockdown tomorrow evening for 45 days.

The Spanish lock down is fairly farcical from what is reported as public transport is still crowded.

Longshot

pblakeney said:

Longshot said:

ddraver said:

focuszing723 said:

elbowloh said:

The banning of outdoor activities seems a bit bizarre, particularly if you are doing it on your own. The evidence points towards it being very unlikely to be contracted out in the open air if you keep your distance.

Exercise, fresh air and keeping your weight down helps peoples immune system too. I guess it depends where you live as well.

It's becasue there is no ambulance to come and rescue you when you Spoon it.

That's why

...and, even if there were, they don't want you diverting medical staff's attention away from Covid cases.

Doesn’t address why the Spanish are essentially keeping everyone indoors. You are not even allowed to go for a walk. Are they concerned by trip hazards?

I'm not sure. Possibly it lessens the chance of collateral damage when they start shooting the infected?

Pross

rjsterry said:

surrey_commuter said:

pblakeney said:

mrfpb said:

Italy identified their first case just one day before us. It's probably luck that has kept our spread lower rather than policy - we don't have the January/February tourist boost that Italy has (Venice Festital, Milan Fashion Week, Skiing holidays). If the pandemic arrived the week before Galstonbury, we'd be seriously worse off.

But "Lockdown" isn't really enforceable. Willingness of the public to comply is a factor in developing UK policy.

We will be able to observe Spain to see if a lockdown can be enforced. No cycling in Mallorca apparently.

France going into lockdown tomorrow evening for 45 days.

The Spanish lock down is fairly farcical from what is reported as public transport is still crowded.

It just seems very knee jerk and ill thought out yet people are clamouring for us to follow suit.

rick_chasey

When the hospitals are overwhelmed people in the UK will bemoan, rightly or wrongly, that not enough was done to improve social distancing.

surrey_commuter

rick_chasey said:

When the hospitals are overwhelmed people in the UK will bemoan, rightly or wrongly, that not enough was done to improve social distancing.

where were you last week? I was alone in my argument that Boris's plan is madness.

rick_chasey

Pfft I'm clueless SC. Depends on what hour of the day it is on how i'm feeling about the whole thing.

RN I'm thinking the financial crash and subsequent recession will be worse, but an hour ago I thought the opposite.

focuszing723

ddraver said:

focuszing723 said:

elbowloh said:

The banning of outdoor activities seems a bit bizarre, particularly if you are doing it on your own. The evidence points towards it being very unlikely to be contracted out in the open air if you keep your distance.

Exercise, fresh air and keeping your weight down helps peoples immune system too. I guess it depends where you live as well.

It's becasue there is no ambulance to come and rescue you when you Spoon it.

That's why

Yeah it makes sense, but going out for a walk I'm sure that will be encouraged in the right setting.