The big Coronavirus thread

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Comments

  • morstar
    morstar Posts: 6,190
    kingstongraham said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/17/political-imagination-end-lockdown-mass-testing-contact-tracing

    We need censored loads of tests.

    I get it, I really do. I just think there is an enormous point that this assertion misses.
    You are still only suppressing the virus with no actual solution to the problem.
    Assume we do this and get rid of the virus in UK. It still exists and is circulating in the world. Nothing moves on until a vaccine as we are all still exposed. If the vaccine never comes, people will continue to die in the UK.

    The consistent point you have made well is that testing buys time.

    This is the calculated gamble. Buying time buys the opportunity for improved treatments and the increasing likelihood of a vaccine.
    The counter argument is that you are trading hope of one or both of these happening against actual social, economic and non-covid health damage.

    The testing and isolating approach is as big a gamble as herd immunity. It appeals because the short terms advantages appear quantifiable.

    And then there's Luxembourg (+others). More than twice the German testing and 2.4 times the mortality.

    To be clear, I'm not arguing we should not test. I'm arguing there is a scientific debate to be had (was had) by decision makers I don't envy one bit. An un-nuanced test, test, test argument absolutely has an emotional element to it which doesn't give it validity.

    The PPE is the quantifiable problem we lay people should 100% not accepting and be shaking the money tree at.

  • john80
    john80 Posts: 2,965
    pangolin said:

    rick_chasey said:

    A bigger worry is the telegraph reporting some hospitals rationing oxygen....


    That stuff doesn't just grow on trees.
    The company i do work for has announced tbe development of a new mask that reduces oxygen consumption. It was mainly used in hyperbaric chambers before. Thats a bit of positivity to negate Ricks constant negativity. It is too difficult for Rick to understand that whilst most rooms in a hospital have an oxygen point the plant providing the oxygen is not designed for everyone to be used at the same time. Those incompetent enginers not predicting a pandemic requiring a lot of oxygen eh.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    rick_chasey said:

    A bigger worry is the telegraph reporting some hospitals rationing oxygen....


    That stuff doesn't just grow on trees.
    The company i do work for has announced tbe development of a new mask that reduces oxygen consumption. It was mainly used in hyperbaric chambers before. Thats a bit of positivity to negate Ricks constant negativity. It is too difficult for Rick to understand that whilst most rooms in a hospital have an oxygen point the plant providing the oxygen is not designed for everyone to be used at the same time. Those incompetent enginers not predicting a pandemic requiring a lot of oxygen eh.
    I don’t put everything at the door of the govt.

    But obviously if you lockdown sooner blah blah.
    _
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    edited April 2020
    kingstongraham said:

    rick_chasey said:

    kingstongraham said:

    rjsterry said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    rjsterry said:

    pblakeney said:

    I see that we have a war chest of 12 billion to fight the financial aspects of the virus.
    Divide that by 66 million and it doesn’t go far.

    Expect that to increase.
    The censored had already embarked on the largest ever fiscal expansion, so what are his options switch money from his bridge fund or borrow more?
    I think this might just take priority over HS2. The nearest equivalent this country has seen was the outbreak of WW2. I would expect similar borrowing, expenditure and repayment over decades to get through it.
    Even now, a month after this, HS2 is somehow far from being cancelled, it is being prioritised.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52293055

    Incredible.
    Why is it incredible?

    Counter cyclical spending on things like infrastructure is textbook stuff.
    Because it was already bad value, doesn't give great benefits, isn't ever going to go past Birmingham, and will mean that they will spend less on actually useful infrastructure projects. And now even the official projection has its value for money as "Poor".
    I get that but in a depression the most important thing is just someone spending money to get it all going again and you can’t trust individuals to do that since it wouldn’t be rational, so the govt has to step up. Hence “counter-cyclical”

    German rearmament was certainly not good value for money but it lifted Germany out of The Depression faster than any other nation, because they were just spending like mad.

    Depressions are (mainly) demand side so you just gotta stimulate.
    _
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,497
    rick_chasey said:

    kingstongraham said:

    rick_chasey said:

    kingstongraham said:

    rjsterry said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    rjsterry said:

    pblakeney said:

    I see that we have a war chest of 12 billion to fight the financial aspects of the virus.
    Divide that by 66 million and it doesn’t go far.

    Expect that to increase.
    The censored had already embarked on the largest ever fiscal expansion, so what are his options switch money from his bridge fund or borrow more?
    I think this might just take priority over HS2. The nearest equivalent this country has seen was the outbreak of WW2. I would expect similar borrowing, expenditure and repayment over decades to get through it.
    Even now, a month after this, HS2 is somehow far from being cancelled, it is being prioritised.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52293055

    Incredible.
    Why is it incredible?

    Counter cyclical spending on things like infrastructure is textbook stuff.
    Because it was already bad value, doesn't give great benefits, isn't ever going to go past Birmingham, and will mean that they will spend less on actually useful infrastructure projects. And now even the official projection has its value for money as "Poor".
    I get that but in a depression the most important thing is just someone spending money to get it all going again and you can’t trust individuals to do that since it wouldn’t be rational, so the govt has to step up. Hence “counter-cyclical”

    German rearmament was certainly not good value for money but it lifted Germany out of The Depression faster than any other nation, because they were just spending like mad.

    Depressions are (mainly) demand side so you just gotta stimulate.
    Not austerity then?
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    First.Aspect said:

    rick_chasey said:

    kingstongraham said:

    rick_chasey said:

    kingstongraham said:

    rjsterry said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    rjsterry said:

    pblakeney said:

    I see that we have a war chest of 12 billion to fight the financial aspects of the virus.
    Divide that by 66 million and it doesn’t go far.

    Expect that to increase.
    The censored had already embarked on the largest ever fiscal expansion, so what are his options switch money from his bridge fund or borrow more?
    I think this might just take priority over HS2. The nearest equivalent this country has seen was the outbreak of WW2. I would expect similar borrowing, expenditure and repayment over decades to get through it.
    Even now, a month after this, HS2 is somehow far from being cancelled, it is being prioritised.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52293055

    Incredible.
    Why is it incredible?

    Counter cyclical spending on things like infrastructure is textbook stuff.
    Because it was already bad value, doesn't give great benefits, isn't ever going to go past Birmingham, and will mean that they will spend less on actually useful infrastructure projects. And now even the official projection has its value for money as "Poor".
    I get that but in a depression the most important thing is just someone spending money to get it all going again and you can’t trust individuals to do that since it wouldn’t be rational, so the govt has to step up. Hence “counter-cyclical”

    German rearmament was certainly not good value for money but it lifted Germany out of The Depression faster than any other nation, because they were just spending like mad.

    Depressions are (mainly) demand side so you just gotta stimulate.
    Not austerity then?
    The whole point of counter cyclical is the govt steps in where the rest of spending is low and as growth picks up they step back.

    The problem with the last recession was you didn’t have the spending during the recession so you never really got the growth you wanted to step back.

    The US *did* do big counter cyclical stimulus (and called it as such) and they had a much faster bounce back.

    Same goes for China last time around.
    _
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,497
    rick_chasey said:

    First.Aspect said:

    rick_chasey said:

    kingstongraham said:

    rick_chasey said:

    kingstongraham said:

    rjsterry said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    rjsterry said:

    pblakeney said:

    I see that we have a war chest of 12 billion to fight the financial aspects of the virus.
    Divide that by 66 million and it doesn’t go far.

    Expect that to increase.
    The censored had already embarked on the largest ever fiscal expansion, so what are his options switch money from his bridge fund or borrow more?
    I think this might just take priority over HS2. The nearest equivalent this country has seen was the outbreak of WW2. I would expect similar borrowing, expenditure and repayment over decades to get through it.
    Even now, a month after this, HS2 is somehow far from being cancelled, it is being prioritised.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52293055

    Incredible.
    Why is it incredible?

    Counter cyclical spending on things like infrastructure is textbook stuff.
    Because it was already bad value, doesn't give great benefits, isn't ever going to go past Birmingham, and will mean that they will spend less on actually useful infrastructure projects. And now even the official projection has its value for money as "Poor".
    I get that but in a depression the most important thing is just someone spending money to get it all going again and you can’t trust individuals to do that since it wouldn’t be rational, so the govt has to step up. Hence “counter-cyclical”

    German rearmament was certainly not good value for money but it lifted Germany out of The Depression faster than any other nation, because they were just spending like mad.

    Depressions are (mainly) demand side so you just gotta stimulate.
    Not austerity then?
    The whole point of counter cyclical is the govt steps in where the rest of spending is low and as growth picks up they step back.

    The problem with the last recession was you didn’t have the spending during the recession so you never really got the growth you wanted to step back.

    The US *did* do big counter cyclical stimulus (and called it as such) and they had a much faster bounce back.

    Same goes for China last time around.
    Whoosh
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    Yeah sorry First, you operate on a higher plane to me.
    _
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,689
    rick_chasey said:

    focuszing723 said:

    kingstongraham said:

    rjsterry said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    rjsterry said:

    pblakeney said:

    I see that we have a war chest of 12 billion to fight the financial aspects of the virus.
    Divide that by 66 million and it doesn’t go far.

    Expect that to increase.
    The censored had already embarked on the largest ever fiscal expansion, so what are his options switch money from his bridge fund or borrow more?
    I think this might just take priority over HS2. The nearest equivalent this country has seen was the outbreak of WW2. I would expect similar borrowing, expenditure and repayment over decades to get through it.
    Even now, a month after this, HS2 is somehow far from being cancelled, it is being prioritised.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52293055

    Incredible.
    I want to see a question asked about this at each press conference. It's blood ridiculous, when the countries economy is being repeatedly kicked in the nuts!
    But it is being done to help the economy?

    As per above it is textbook.
    I agree with Rick on this other than I think HS2 isn't the best project to be using for it. I'd rather see the money being ploughed into a school and hospital rebuild together with a really ambitious upgrading of digital technology nationwide. We could be building on the current experience of carrying out many meetings and work tasks remotely which will give far more benefit than reducing the travel time from Manchester to London by 20 minutes.
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,497
    rick_chasey said:

    Yeah sorry First, you operate on a higher plane to me.

    Yes. For example I can immediately see that stimulating the economy by building a white elephant isn't the way to go.

    Canals, we need more canals. Much better than moving goods by pack horse. Lots of navvies would get jobs in the meantime.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    rick_chasey said:

    First.Aspect said:

    rick_chasey said:

    kingstongraham said:

    rick_chasey said:

    kingstongraham said:

    rjsterry said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    rjsterry said:

    pblakeney said:

    I see that we have a war chest of 12 billion to fight the financial aspects of the virus.
    Divide that by 66 million and it doesn’t go far.

    Expect that to increase.
    The censored had already embarked on the largest ever fiscal expansion, so what are his options switch money from his bridge fund or borrow more?
    I think this might just take priority over HS2. The nearest equivalent this country has seen was the outbreak of WW2. I would expect similar borrowing, expenditure and repayment over decades to get through it.
    Even now, a month after this, HS2 is somehow far from being cancelled, it is being prioritised.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52293055

    Incredible.
    Why is it incredible?

    Counter cyclical spending on things like infrastructure is textbook stuff.
    Because it was already bad value, doesn't give great benefits, isn't ever going to go past Birmingham, and will mean that they will spend less on actually useful infrastructure projects. And now even the official projection has its value for money as "Poor".
    I get that but in a depression the most important thing is just someone spending money to get it all going again and you can’t trust individuals to do that since it wouldn’t be rational, so the govt has to step up. Hence “counter-cyclical”

    German rearmament was certainly not good value for money but it lifted Germany out of The Depression faster than any other nation, because they were just spending like mad.

    Depressions are (mainly) demand side so you just gotta stimulate.
    Not austerity then?
    The whole point of counter cyclical is the govt steps in where the rest of spending is low and as growth picks up they step back.

    The problem with the last recession was you didn’t have the spending during the recession so you never really got the growth you wanted to step back.

    The US *did* do big counter cyclical stimulus (and called it as such) and they had a much faster bounce back.

    Same goes for China last time around.
    So do you think they will stop building HS2 when we come out of recession? they could build it bit by bit in recessions.

    Surely enriching furlough would be more effective counter cyclical spending, or on keeping small businesses afloat.

    You have been mugged off if you think HS2 is intended as a counter cyclical measure
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,689
    They could restart the electrification of the South Wales line that was shelved as being too expensive despite being far cheaper per minute saved on a journey. Build replacements for our Victorian prisons. There are so many projects you can throw Government money at if they seem to have it spare and nearly all would have greater benefit. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see a world class rail network in the UK but HS2 has been flawed from the start.
  • focuszing723
    focuszing723 Posts: 8,193
    First.Aspect said:

    rick_chasey said:

    Yeah sorry First, you operate on a higher plane to me.

    Yes. For example I can immediately see that stimulating the economy by building a white elephant isn't the way to go.

    Canals, we need more canals. Much better than moving goods by pack horse. Lots of navvies would get jobs in the meantime.
    That couldn't be a better analogy for me. The time HS2 is complete, for all we know the fast lane could turn into a 10 metre apart autonomous vehicle congestion buster.

    Why not put the money into smaller projects dispersed around the country as already mentioned.
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,622
    pangolin said:

    TheBigBean said:

    BBC correction

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52333540

    Well well well. Almost as if some people were right to be a tad cynical of taking that story at face value.
    I think everyone was cynical of the face value. Never mind that the situation persists, the important part is that the person's role has been corrected.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,689

  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,922
    focuszing723 said:

    First.Aspect said:

    rick_chasey said:

    Yeah sorry First, you operate on a higher plane to me.

    Yes. For example I can immediately see that stimulating the economy by building a white elephant isn't the way to go.

    Canals, we need more canals. Much better than moving goods by pack horse. Lots of navvies would get jobs in the meantime.
    That couldn't be a better analogy for me. The time HS2 is complete, for all we know the fast lane could turn into a 10 metre apart autonomous vehicle congestion buster.

    Why not put the money into smaller projects dispersed around the country as already mentioned.
    Because HS2 has already started being built. They've CPed the land. Demolished buildings. It's past the point of being more expensive to cancel than go forward. Plus Johnson loves a bit of transport infrastructure so I think this train has left the station.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • Jeremy.89
    Jeremy.89 Posts: 457
    Pross said:

    rick_chasey said:

    focuszing723 said:

    kingstongraham said:

    rjsterry said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    rjsterry said:

    pblakeney said:

    I see that we have a war chest of 12 billion to fight the financial aspects of the virus.
    Divide that by 66 million and it doesn’t go far.

    Expect that to increase.
    The censored had already embarked on the largest ever fiscal expansion, so what are his options switch money from his bridge fund or borrow more?
    I think this might just take priority over HS2. The nearest equivalent this country has seen was the outbreak of WW2. I would expect similar borrowing, expenditure and repayment over decades to get through it.
    Even now, a month after this, HS2 is somehow far from being cancelled, it is being prioritised.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52293055

    Incredible.
    I want to see a question asked about this at each press conference. It's blood ridiculous, when the countries economy is being repeatedly kicked in the nuts!
    But it is being done to help the economy?

    As per above it is textbook.
    I agree with Rick on this other than I think HS2 isn't the best project to be using for it. I'd rather see the money being ploughed into a school and hospital rebuild together with a really ambitious upgrading of digital technology nationwide. We could be building on the current experience of carrying out many meetings and work tasks remotely which will give far more benefit than reducing the travel time from Manchester to London by 20 minutes.
    Isn't HS2 about increasing capacity? Meaning we can actually properly separate long distance and commuter trains.

  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,922
    Jeremy.89 said:

    Pross said:

    rick_chasey said:

    focuszing723 said:

    kingstongraham said:

    rjsterry said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    rjsterry said:

    pblakeney said:

    I see that we have a war chest of 12 billion to fight the financial aspects of the virus.
    Divide that by 66 million and it doesn’t go far.

    Expect that to increase.
    The censored had already embarked on the largest ever fiscal expansion, so what are his options switch money from his bridge fund or borrow more?
    I think this might just take priority over HS2. The nearest equivalent this country has seen was the outbreak of WW2. I would expect similar borrowing, expenditure and repayment over decades to get through it.
    Even now, a month after this, HS2 is somehow far from being cancelled, it is being prioritised.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52293055

    Incredible.
    I want to see a question asked about this at each press conference. It's blood ridiculous, when the countries economy is being repeatedly kicked in the nuts!
    But it is being done to help the economy?

    As per above it is textbook.
    I agree with Rick on this other than I think HS2 isn't the best project to be using for it. I'd rather see the money being ploughed into a school and hospital rebuild together with a really ambitious upgrading of digital technology nationwide. We could be building on the current experience of carrying out many meetings and work tasks remotely which will give far more benefit than reducing the travel time from Manchester to London by 20 minutes.
    Isn't HS2 about increasing capacity? Meaning we can actually properly separate long distance and commuter trains.

    It's about lots of things, but for some reason nobody can focus on anything but travel times 🙄
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    First.Aspect said:

    rick_chasey said:

    Yeah sorry First, you operate on a higher plane to me.

    Yes. For example I can immediately see that stimulating the economy by building a white elephant isn't the way to go.

    Canals, we need more canals. Much better than moving goods by pack horse. Lots of navvies would get jobs in the meantime.
    Not a Keynes man, I take it.
    _
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,689
    Jeremy.89 said:

    Pross said:

    rick_chasey said:

    focuszing723 said:

    kingstongraham said:

    rjsterry said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    rjsterry said:

    pblakeney said:

    I see that we have a war chest of 12 billion to fight the financial aspects of the virus.
    Divide that by 66 million and it doesn’t go far.

    Expect that to increase.
    The censored had already embarked on the largest ever fiscal expansion, so what are his options switch money from his bridge fund or borrow more?
    I think this might just take priority over HS2. The nearest equivalent this country has seen was the outbreak of WW2. I would expect similar borrowing, expenditure and repayment over decades to get through it.
    Even now, a month after this, HS2 is somehow far from being cancelled, it is being prioritised.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52293055

    Incredible.
    I want to see a question asked about this at each press conference. It's blood ridiculous, when the countries economy is being repeatedly kicked in the nuts!
    But it is being done to help the economy?

    As per above it is textbook.
    I agree with Rick on this other than I think HS2 isn't the best project to be using for it. I'd rather see the money being ploughed into a school and hospital rebuild together with a really ambitious upgrading of digital technology nationwide. We could be building on the current experience of carrying out many meetings and work tasks remotely which will give far more benefit than reducing the travel time from Manchester to London by 20 minutes.
    Isn't HS2 about increasing capacity? Meaning we can actually properly separate long distance and commuter trains.

    Yeah but it's still a ridiculously over-priced vanity project that will probably be out of date by time it becomes operational. It could be good for me personally as it brings work into my sector and even though I doubt I'll work on it directly it keeps the big boys occupied and away from our clients.

    I still there's better investments. We could be aiming to become world leaders in electric cars and associated infrastructure instead plus really looking to build a world leading digital infrastructure.
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,689
    rjsterry said:

    Jeremy.89 said:

    Pross said:

    rick_chasey said:

    focuszing723 said:

    kingstongraham said:

    rjsterry said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    rjsterry said:

    pblakeney said:

    I see that we have a war chest of 12 billion to fight the financial aspects of the virus.
    Divide that by 66 million and it doesn’t go far.

    Expect that to increase.
    The censored had already embarked on the largest ever fiscal expansion, so what are his options switch money from his bridge fund or borrow more?
    I think this might just take priority over HS2. The nearest equivalent this country has seen was the outbreak of WW2. I would expect similar borrowing, expenditure and repayment over decades to get through it.
    Even now, a month after this, HS2 is somehow far from being cancelled, it is being prioritised.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52293055

    Incredible.
    I want to see a question asked about this at each press conference. It's blood ridiculous, when the countries economy is being repeatedly kicked in the nuts!
    But it is being done to help the economy?

    As per above it is textbook.
    I agree with Rick on this other than I think HS2 isn't the best project to be using for it. I'd rather see the money being ploughed into a school and hospital rebuild together with a really ambitious upgrading of digital technology nationwide. We could be building on the current experience of carrying out many meetings and work tasks remotely which will give far more benefit than reducing the travel time from Manchester to London by 20 minutes.
    Isn't HS2 about increasing capacity? Meaning we can actually properly separate long distance and commuter trains.

    It's about lots of things, but for some reason nobody can focus on anything but travel times 🙄
    It's still poor value, it has taken so long to get it to even this stage that I feel there's a real danger in it being behind the times before it starts operating. Major infrastructure in this country just takes too long to implement as our planning process invites every man and his dog to have an opinion.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    edited April 2020
    So Keynes made the famous quote “get the government to pay people to dig holes and fill them up again”.

    Deliberately of course, so people would reply like some on here are that they better spend it on more productive things.

    To which he says “fine, just spend the money as long as they are creating jobs.”

    That is the point. What you spend it on is a secondary order of thought. HS2 is already planned out and good to go. It makes sense to crack on with it rather than wait 10 years for studies into what else.

    As long as the spending is happening, and jobs are being created/kept.

    _
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    rick_chasey said:

    So Keynes made the famous quote “get the government to pay people to dig holes and fill them up again”.

    Deliberately of course, so people would reply like some on here are that they better spend it on more productive things.

    To which he says “fine, just spend the money as long as they are creating jobs.”

    That is the point. What you spend it on is a secondary order of thought. HS2 is already planned out and good to go. It makes sense to crack on with it rather than wait 10 years for studies into what else.

    As long as the spending is happening, and jobs are being created/kept.

    If this recession lasts as long as it takes to build HS2 we are beyond f cked
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,922
    Pross said:

    rjsterry said:

    Jeremy.89 said:

    Pross said:

    rick_chasey said:

    focuszing723 said:

    kingstongraham said:

    rjsterry said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    rjsterry said:

    pblakeney said:

    I see that we have a war chest of 12 billion to fight the financial aspects of the virus.
    Divide that by 66 million and it doesn’t go far.

    Expect that to increase.
    The censored had already embarked on the largest ever fiscal expansion, so what are his options switch money from his bridge fund or borrow more?
    I think this might just take priority over HS2. The nearest equivalent this country has seen was the outbreak of WW2. I would expect similar borrowing, expenditure and repayment over decades to get through it.
    Even now, a month after this, HS2 is somehow far from being cancelled, it is being prioritised.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52293055

    Incredible.
    I want to see a question asked about this at each press conference. It's blood ridiculous, when the countries economy is being repeatedly kicked in the nuts!
    But it is being done to help the economy?

    As per above it is textbook.
    I agree with Rick on this other than I think HS2 isn't the best project to be using for it. I'd rather see the money being ploughed into a school and hospital rebuild together with a really ambitious upgrading of digital technology nationwide. We could be building on the current experience of carrying out many meetings and work tasks remotely which will give far more benefit than reducing the travel time from Manchester to London by 20 minutes.
    Isn't HS2 about increasing capacity? Meaning we can actually properly separate long distance and commuter trains.

    It's about lots of things, but for some reason nobody can focus on anything but travel times 🙄
    It's still poor value, it has taken so long to get it to even this stage that I feel there's a real danger in it being behind the times before it starts operating. Major infrastructure in this country just takes too long to implement as our planning process invites every man and his dog to have an opinion.
    On that I certainly agree.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    rjsterry said:

    focuszing723 said:

    First.Aspect said:

    rick_chasey said:

    Yeah sorry First, you operate on a higher plane to me.

    Yes. For example I can immediately see that stimulating the economy by building a white elephant isn't the way to go.

    Canals, we need more canals. Much better than moving goods by pack horse. Lots of navvies would get jobs in the meantime.
    That couldn't be a better analogy for me. The time HS2 is complete, for all we know the fast lane could turn into a 10 metre apart autonomous vehicle congestion buster.

    Why not put the money into smaller projects dispersed around the country as already mentioned.
    Because HS2 has already started being built. They've CPed the land. Demolished buildings. It's past the point of being more expensive to cancel than go forward. Plus Johnson loves a bit of transport infrastructure so I think this train has left the station.
    Genuine question - why is it more expensive to cancel?

    I always think the snake oil purveyors of these pet projects rush to get to this mythical point
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    If you can come up with a project that employs as many people that you could literally start today that is better then HS2 then I’m sure the govt would want to hear from you.
    _
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,497
    edited April 2020
    rick_chasey said:

    First.Aspect said:

    rick_chasey said:

    Yeah sorry First, you operate on a higher plane to me.

    Yes. For example I can immediately see that stimulating the economy by building a white elephant isn't the way to go.

    Canals, we need more canals. Much better than moving goods by pack horse. Lots of navvies would get jobs in the meantime.
    Not a Keynes man, I take it.
    I disagree with the direction, not the principle. HS2 is an exercise in enhancing centralisation of the UK economy for the benefit of what is already the richest most heavily invested-in and infrastructure-laden region of the country.

    It is laughable that someone on here thinks that London to Birmingham is "long distance" rail travel. It is not even long distance in England.

    Buy a map and a ruler.

    It is also literally incorrect that it would take more to cancel. If you think that less than 10% is more than half, you are looking at a logarithmic scale.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    rick_chasey said:

    kingstongraham said:

    rick_chasey said:

    kingstongraham said:

    rjsterry said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    rjsterry said:

    pblakeney said:

    I see that we have a war chest of 12 billion to fight the financial aspects of the virus.
    Divide that by 66 million and it doesn’t go far.

    Expect that to increase.
    The censored had already embarked on the largest ever fiscal expansion, so what are his options switch money from his bridge fund or borrow more?
    I think this might just take priority over HS2. The nearest equivalent this country has seen was the outbreak of WW2. I would expect similar borrowing, expenditure and repayment over decades to get through it.
    Even now, a month after this, HS2 is somehow far from being cancelled, it is being prioritised.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52293055

    Incredible.
    Why is it incredible?

    Counter cyclical spending on things like infrastructure is textbook stuff.
    Because it was already bad value, doesn't give great benefits, isn't ever going to go past Birmingham, and will mean that they will spend less on actually useful infrastructure projects. And now even the official projection has its value for money as "Poor".
    I get that but in a depression the most important thing is just someone spending money to get it all going again and you can’t trust individuals to do that since it wouldn’t be rational, so the govt has to step up. Hence “counter-cyclical”

    German rearmament was certainly not good value for money but it lifted Germany out of The Depression faster than any other nation, because they were just spending like mad.

    Depressions are (mainly) demand side so you just gotta stimulate.
    This only works if you place no negative value on the cost of the debt.

    If you believe there is a cost to the debt then it will be paid in less spending on health, education and welfare
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    First.Aspect said:

    rick_chasey said:

    Yeah sorry First, you operate on a higher plane to me.

    Yes. For example I can immediately see that stimulating the economy by building a white elephant isn't the way to go.

    Canals, we need more canals. Much better than moving goods by pack horse. Lots of navvies would get jobs in the meantime.

    Or filling in (pot) holes, the less tools you give them the more you can employ
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    surrey_commuter said:

    rick_chasey said:

    kingstongraham said:

    rick_chasey said:

    kingstongraham said:

    rjsterry said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    rjsterry said:

    pblakeney said:

    I see that we have a war chest of 12 billion to fight the financial aspects of the virus.
    Divide that by 66 million and it doesn’t go far.

    Expect that to increase.
    The censored had already embarked on the largest ever fiscal expansion, so what are his options switch money from his bridge fund or borrow more?
    I think this might just take priority over HS2. The nearest equivalent this country has seen was the outbreak of WW2. I would expect similar borrowing, expenditure and repayment over decades to get through it.
    Even now, a month after this, HS2 is somehow far from being cancelled, it is being prioritised.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52293055

    Incredible.
    Why is it incredible?

    Counter cyclical spending on things like infrastructure is textbook stuff.
    Because it was already bad value, doesn't give great benefits, isn't ever going to go past Birmingham, and will mean that they will spend less on actually useful infrastructure projects. And now even the official projection has its value for money as "Poor".
    I get that but in a depression the most important thing is just someone spending money to get it all going again and you can’t trust individuals to do that since it wouldn’t be rational, so the govt has to step up. Hence “counter-cyclical”

    German rearmament was certainly not good value for money but it lifted Germany out of The Depression faster than any other nation, because they were just spending like mad.

    Depressions are (mainly) demand side so you just gotta stimulate.
    This only works if you place no negative value on the cost of the debt.

    If you believe there is a cost to the debt then it will be paid in less spending on health, education and welfare
    Creating/keeping jobs in a depression > spending on debt. Especially when borrowing is so cheap.

    For the same reason most people agree with the gov’ts loan and furlough schemes.

    _

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