The big Coronavirus thread

rjsterry

An explanation of why making a ventilator requires more than making a motor squeeze a bag of air through a tube.

https://youtu.be/7vLPefHYWpY

And why some of those getting involved may not have been entirely serious about helping.

kingstongraham

Pross said:

Japan seems to have somehow done well without really doing much, some think they may have held back on the impact because of the Olympics but I'm sceptical about that.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-52336388

Not looking so good in Japan now.

I think it is remarkable how so many countries have made similar mistakes on the way into the crisis, and I feel they are likely to make similar mistakes to each other in the "reopening".

rick_chasey

What’s Japan’s death count at?

Stevo_666

Pross said:

Just to find one positive. At least it seems the Government is planning ahead and funding production of the Oxford Uni vaccine so that it will be ready to go if the human trials that start next week are a success. Fingers crossed and hopefully if there are early signs of it working maybe production can be ramped up further in both the UK and internationally.

I think this is the one that was mentioned a few days ago and is clearly developing. Govt etc clearly at pains not to raise expectations as you don't know if it works properly with no material side effects until clinical trials etc have been done. and then there is the time to ramp up production - although initiatives like the Bill Gates pre-emptive building of capacity once there are a few candidates with good chances will help to shorten the timeline.

As I've mentioned before, the vaccine is the proper exit strategy. Testing & tracing etc is only managing the problem not solving it.

Stevo_666

Pross said:

rick_chasey said:

First.Aspect said:

http://psy2.ucsd.edu/~mckenzie/nickersonConfirmationBias.pdf

On what basis is the U.K. performance anything other than rubbish? In context of being a G10 nation.

It is outdone by US incompetence which you all seem to be able to see.

Are you talking in the context of CV or something else? If you're talking about CV which of the other 9 has done significantly better? I'll give you Germany and Switzerland. Japan seems to have somehow done well without really doing much, some think they may have held back on the impact because of the Olympics but I'm sceptical about that. I don't know much about Canada but it's sparsely populated and feels fairly insular. Sweden and The Netherlands seem to have gone down the route of do nothing or very little, France and Italy are very similar to us and the US is probably being held together by State Governors while the Federal Government seems keen to remove all measures ASAP.

Now you mention Japan, its not looking quite as good:-
https://bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-52336388

Stevo_666

First.Aspect said:

rick_chasey said:

First.Aspect said:

http://psy2.ucsd.edu/~mckenzie/nickersonConfirmationBias.pdf

On what basis is the U.K. performance anything other than rubbish? In context of being a G10 nation.

It is outdone by US incompetence which you all seem to be able to see.

That's the thing about confirmation bias. You can't objectively assess whether or not you have it yourself.

Despite being pretty obvious to others.

Stevo_666

kingstonian said:

Pross said:

rick_chasey said:

First.Aspect said:

http://psy2.ucsd.edu/~mckenzie/nickersonConfirmationBias.pdf

On what basis is the U.K. performance anything other than rubbish? In context of being a G10 nation.

It is outdone by US incompetence which you all seem to be able to see.

Are you talking in the context of CV or something else? If you're talking about CV which of the other 9 has done significantly better? I'll give you Germany and Switzerland. Japan seems to have somehow done well without really doing much, some think they may have held back on the impact because of the Olympics but I'm sceptical about that. I don't know much about Canada but it's sparsely populated and feels fairly insular. Sweden and The Netherlands seem to have gone down the route of do nothing or very little, France and Italy are very similar to us and the US is probably being held together by State Governors while the Federal Government seems keen to remove all measures ASAP.

The Netherlands has quite a strict lockdown. I only know because my wife’s family are scattered across the country.

One interesting anecdote was that in the week leading up to Easter, where my in-laws live (Zeeland, on the coast close to the Belgian border) was inundated by German and Belgian families who had decided to get away for a little holiday. Incredible how so many people can be living in a country that is locked down, and still think it is perfectly sensible to then go away for a short break to another country also in lockdown.

For a while after we locked down Netherlands was actually less restricted than the UK and it looks like they are now roughly on a par with us:
https://government.nl/topics/coronavirus-covid-19

rjsterry

Stevo_666 said:

Pross said:

Just to find one positive. At least it seems the Government is planning ahead and funding production of the Oxford Uni vaccine so that it will be ready to go if the human trials that start next week are a success. Fingers crossed and hopefully if there are early signs of it working maybe production can be ramped up further in both the UK and internationally.

I think this is the one that was mentioned a few days ago and is clearly developing. Govt etc clearly at pains not to raise expectations as you don't know if it works properly with no material side effects until clinical trials etc have been done. and then there is the time to ramp up production - although initiatives like the Bill Gates pre-emptive building of capacity once there are a few candidates with good chances will help to shorten the timeline.

As I've mentioned before, the vaccine is the proper exit strategy. Testing & tracing etc is only managing the problem not solving it.

I take it we can agree that managing the problem while we wait for a solution is better than not managing it.

Stevo_666

rick_chasey said:

What’s Japan’s death count at?

Direction of travel Rick...also there has been the point that Japan was under-reporting to try to avoid having the Olympic cancelled. The article in the link appears to be at odds with the stats.

I know you're probably desperate to pull out a stat comparing them more favourably compared to the UK, which will be your next move I guess. Where's the rollyes emoticon gone when you really need it?

Stevo_666

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

Pross said:

Just to find one positive. At least it seems the Government is planning ahead and funding production of the Oxford Uni vaccine so that it will be ready to go if the human trials that start next week are a success. Fingers crossed and hopefully if there are early signs of it working maybe production can be ramped up further in both the UK and internationally.

I think this is the one that was mentioned a few days ago and is clearly developing. Govt etc clearly at pains not to raise expectations as you don't know if it works properly with no material side effects until clinical trials etc have been done. and then there is the time to ramp up production - although initiatives like the Bill Gates pre-emptive building of capacity once there are a few candidates with good chances will help to shorten the timeline.

As I've mentioned before, the vaccine is the proper exit strategy. Testing & tracing etc is only managing the problem not solving it.

I take it we can agree that managing the problem while we wait for a solution is better than not managing it.

It needs to be managed but some seem to think it is the answer. It isn't, it is just part of an overall strategy. also as has been mentioned above there are examples of countries where there has been extensive testing but there is a still a problem. I pointed out the logistical issue with having enough tests to really make this work a while back.

rick_chasey

Stevo_666 said:

rick_chasey said:

What’s Japan’s death count at?

Direction of travel Rick...also there has been the point that Japan was under-reporting to try to avoid having the Olympic cancelled. The article in the link appears to be at odds with the stats.

I know you're probably desperate to pull out a stat comparing them more favourably compared to the UK, which will be your next move I guess. Where's the rollyes emoticon gone when you really need it?

Sorry I just assumed by it having problems it was heading to 10-20k deaths. Is that not right?

I mean it’s 120 mill pop. so.

rick_chasey

A perspective on US deaths

Stevo_666

rick_chasey said:

Stevo_666 said:

rick_chasey said:

What’s Japan’s death count at?

Direction of travel Rick...also there has been the point that Japan was under-reporting to try to avoid having the Olympic cancelled. The article in the link appears to be at odds with the stats.

I know you're probably desperate to pull out a stat comparing them more favourably compared to the UK, which will be your next move I guess. Where's the rollyes emoticon gone when you really need it?

Sorry I just assumed by it having problems it was heading to 10-20k deaths. Is that not right?

I mean it’s 120 mill pop. so.

Read the article - as you advised others to do for something you posted recently. You will also see references to shortages of PPE and hospitals turning away patients.

It may pain you to know we are not the only country with issues from this global pandemic, but it would be good to give you a better perspective on the wider situation.

kingstongraham

rick_chasey said:

Stevo_666 said:

rick_chasey said:

What’s Japan’s death count at?

Direction of travel Rick...also there has been the point that Japan was under-reporting to try to avoid having the Olympic cancelled. The article in the link appears to be at odds with the stats.

I know you're probably desperate to pull out a stat comparing them more favourably compared to the UK, which will be your next move I guess. Where's the rollyes emoticon gone when you really need it?

Sorry I just assumed by it having problems it was heading to 10-20k deaths. Is that not right?

I mean it’s 120 mill pop. so.

Who knows where it's heading, but currently with 200 deaths, not much testing, a reported lack of PPE, they might look elsewhere to see their future.

Stevo_666

kingstongraham said:

rick_chasey said:

Stevo_666 said:

rick_chasey said:

What’s Japan’s death count at?

Direction of travel Rick...also there has been the point that Japan was under-reporting to try to avoid having the Olympic cancelled. The article in the link appears to be at odds with the stats.

I know you're probably desperate to pull out a stat comparing them more favourably compared to the UK, which will be your next move I guess. Where's the rollyes emoticon gone when you really need it?

Sorry I just assumed by it having problems it was heading to 10-20k deaths. Is that not right?

I mean it’s 120 mill pop. so.

Who knows where it's heading, but currently with 200 deaths, not much testing, a reported lack of PPE, they might look elsewhere to see their future.

This is what I was trying to get 'Doomboy' to see when I mentioned the direction of travel.

Pross

rick_chasey said:

Stevo_666 said:

rick_chasey said:

What’s Japan’s death count at?

Direction of travel Rick...also there has been the point that Japan was under-reporting to try to avoid having the Olympic cancelled. The article in the link appears to be at odds with the stats.

I know you're probably desperate to pull out a stat comparing them more favourably compared to the UK, which will be your next move I guess. Where's the rollyes emoticon gone when you really need it?

Sorry I just assumed by it having problems it was heading to 10-20k deaths. Is that not right?

I mean it’s 120 mill pop. so.

You suggested we were worse than the others in the G10 other than the US but truth is we're worse than some and about the same as others. I'd rather were more like Germany but we aren't. I get the feeling the UK Government could create a vaccine themselves and resurrect those who have died and you'd find something negative about it.

I don't think they've done a very good job in some aspects especially PPE and testing but they haven't been any worse than most others in their response.

morstar

Further to an earlier post about the stats. I was looking at more stats earlier today.
Andorra (ski resorts), Monaco (tourist destination).
The most consistent pattern I see in the stats is localised travel hotspots.
The stats are very mixed but that seems to be the most obvious consistent factor.

rjsterry

Stevo_666 said:

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

Pross said:

Just to find one positive. At least it seems the Government is planning ahead and funding production of the Oxford Uni vaccine so that it will be ready to go if the human trials that start next week are a success. Fingers crossed and hopefully if there are early signs of it working maybe production can be ramped up further in both the UK and internationally.

I think this is the one that was mentioned a few days ago and is clearly developing. Govt etc clearly at pains not to raise expectations as you don't know if it works properly with no material side effects until clinical trials etc have been done. and then there is the time to ramp up production - although initiatives like the Bill Gates pre-emptive building of capacity once there are a few candidates with good chances will help to shorten the timeline.

As I've mentioned before, the vaccine is the proper exit strategy. Testing & tracing etc is only managing the problem not solving it.

I take it we can agree that managing the problem while we wait for a solution is better than not managing it.

It needs to be managed but some seem to think it is the answer. It isn't, it is just part of an overall strategy. also as has been mentioned above there are examples of countries where there has been extensive testing but there is a still a problem. I pointed out the logistical issue with having enough tests to really make this work a while back.

Well one of the five tests government have set in order to lift the lockdown requires widespread testing, so it's now a moot point.

morstar

I think population density has some good correlation to mortality rates in Europe.
Portugal seems to fare better than you’d expect on that metric but they are well isolated assuming Spain has experienced infections in the
main population centres.

rick_chasey

Pross said:

rick_chasey said:

Stevo_666 said:

rick_chasey said:

What’s Japan’s death count at?

Direction of travel Rick...also there has been the point that Japan was under-reporting to try to avoid having the Olympic cancelled. The article in the link appears to be at odds with the stats.

I know you're probably desperate to pull out a stat comparing them more favourably compared to the UK, which will be your next move I guess. Where's the rollyes emoticon gone when you really need it?

Sorry I just assumed by it having problems it was heading to 10-20k deaths. Is that not right?

I mean it’s 120 mill pop. so.

You suggested we were worse than the others in the G10 other than the US but truth is we're worse than some and about the same as others. I'd rather were more like Germany but we aren't. I get the feeling the UK Government could create a vaccine themselves and resurrect those who have died and you'd find something negative about it.

I don't think they've done a very good job in some aspects especially PPE and testing but they haven't been any worse than most others in their response.

Better than US, Comparable to Italy and Spain on a week since 50 deaths basis, worse than every other G10.

I keep trying to say France counts care home deaths in their stats and they make up 30-40% of their deaths.

rick_chasey

morstar said:

I think population density has some good correlation to mortality rates in Europe.
Portugal seems to fare better than you’d expect on that metric but they are well isolated assuming Spain has experienced infections in the
main population centres.

Apart from Germany and Korea right?

morstar

rick_chasey said:

morstar said:

I think population density has some good correlation to mortality rates in Europe.
Portugal seems to fare better than you’d expect on that metric but they are well isolated assuming Spain has experienced infections in the
main population centres.

Apart from Germany and Korea right?

Korea is not in Europe last time I looked so didn't appear on the map. You do realise they have only done 400,000 tests. So proactivity has been their main weapon. We missed that boat.

Germany is widely accepted as the anomaly and testing has clearly been a key part of their strategy. It may be cause and effect but may not be (Luxembourg is my response as you could anticipate).

The interesting thing with Germany on the population density is that they are quite cleary dense across the entire nation but not quite as regionally dense as areas of the worst affected Eu nations, particularly the small ones.

I am trying to look at the whole thing objectively and don't pretend to have all the answers. You do realise a lot of people are researching DNA links. They may be a dead end but maybe Germany has been genetically favoured. Maybe socio-economic or national behavioural traits have all played a part. I know they have a ski industry but it is not as international as the big 4 eu ski nations and I doubt early spring sees major tourism in Germany (I stand to be proven wrong).

If Germany proves your point unequivocally, you need to explain Luxembourg.

Alternatively, try and discuss objectively.

First.Aspect

rick_chasey said:

Pross said:

rick_chasey said:

Stevo_666 said:

rick_chasey said:

What’s Japan’s death count at?

Direction of travel Rick...also there has been the point that Japan was under-reporting to try to avoid having the Olympic cancelled. The article in the link appears to be at odds with the stats.

I know you're probably desperate to pull out a stat comparing them more favourably compared to the UK, which will be your next move I guess. Where's the rollyes emoticon gone when you really need it?

Sorry I just assumed by it having problems it was heading to 10-20k deaths. Is that not right?

I mean it’s 120 mill pop. so.

You suggested we were worse than the others in the G10 other than the US but truth is we're worse than some and about the same as others. I'd rather were more like Germany but we aren't. I get the feeling the UK Government could create a vaccine themselves and resurrect those who have died and you'd find something negative about it.

I don't think they've done a very good job in some aspects especially PPE and testing but they haven't been any worse than most others in their response.

Better than US, Comparable to Italy and Spain on a week since 50 deaths basis, worse than every other G10.

I keep trying to say France counts care home deaths in their stats and they make up 30-40% of their deaths.

Yes and you also keep saying that this means our numbers are 30-40% under reported.

Two and two do indeed make some beans.

morstar

S. Korea now at 550K tests. Approx 1.7 x UK per head.
Less per head than Belgium.

morstar

“ One thing very visible to us in London intensive care units now is how diabetes, high blood pressure and possibly being a little overweight, seem to be such potent risk factors for having a severe lung illness, perhaps even more so than having an existing lung disease which you would think would be a greater risk," Dr Patel said.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52338101

pblakeney

As I am a little overweight, take prescribed medicine for high blood pressure, have a history of asthma and bronchitis, and have previously been hospitalised for pneumonia, that doesn't reassure me much.
Working from home for the foreseeable.....

Pross

I'm beginning to wonder if Rick's autocorrect is playing up and every few words changes something to Germany.

briantrumpet

Pross said:

I'm beginning to wonder if Rick's autocorrect is playing up and every few words changes something to Germany.

Maybe Rick has a bug on his BR swear filter that means we see "Germany" instead of "censored" on his posts.

briantrumpet

Haha. Here's the man trying to open up Florida's beaches again...

https://twitter.com/RexChapman/status/1251300355582935046

pangolin

morstar said:

“ One thing very visible to us in London intensive care units now is how diabetes, high blood pressure and possibly being a little overweight, seem to be such potent risk factors for having a severe lung illness, perhaps even more so than having an existing lung disease which you would think would be a greater risk," Dr Patel said.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52338101

Am I missing something or is this just very bad reporting and or science. From the article (talking about patients in critical care):

"more than a third were overweight - with a BMI of 25-30
38% were obese - with a BMI of over 30"

From google:

"The Health Survey for England 2017 estimates that 28.7% of adults in England are obese and a further 35.6% are overweight but not obese."

Sounds like being obese raises your risk slightly but surely that is a surprise to nobody? And overweight folk are just an accurate representation of society.