The big Coronavirus thread
Comments
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I can see some older people taking the stance that "if I've got to stay in my house and never see anyone for 12 months, I might as well be dead".
Sadly, I know one that will say this if the time scale is even shorter.
The older I get, the better I was.0 -
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Absolute numbers are less relevant than per capita figures. There is also substantial variation in testing regimes so the numbers of cases do not accurately reflect total infections.surrey_commuter said:
OK, I get yours (and RJST’s) points about the scale but why does this not mean that Boris’s plan is not working and our number of deaths is not outstripping countries who have tried to control the spread.rick_chasey said:
People also seem to forget the y axis isn’t linear...surrey_commuter said:
That looks like we are about to take a decisive leadtailwindhome said:Tracking deaths instead of positives
Personally I would have learnt from the countries on the right of the graph.
The graph is trying to show rate of fatal infections over time. This is of interest given our strategy is to slow the rate of infection rather than prevent it. The graph isn't wrong but the other variables make it dangerous to draw conclusions on whether our strategy is working from this alone. I'm not sure a graph with just two variables will answer that question.
Some other figures
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Although even this has fairly obvious flaws. There is no way we have had 1300-odd cases and only 20 recovered - we just aren't counting the recoveries.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
Surely it is down to Boris’s flawed character.rick_chasey said:
I tend to agree.surrey_commuter said:
OK, I get yours (and RJST’s) points about the scale but why does this not mean that Boris’s plan is not working and our number of deaths is not outstripping countries who have tried to control the spread.rick_chasey said:
People also seem to forget the y axis isn’t linear...surrey_commuter said:
That looks like we are about to take a decisive leadtailwindhome said:Tracking deaths instead of positives
Personally I would have learnt from the countries on the right of the graph.
I have read it's because the UK is eyeing up the 2nd wave and not the first, but I am not convinced by this.
It would be nice if they articulated why they are doing things differently.
I this this crisis could change our political landscape. Why is there no Parliamentary check on a PM making these sorts of decisions, it seems a bit outdated that he can’t just declare war that might cost a few hundred lives. Why do we make political appointments to run something like Health rather than somebody with experience of running a massive organisation in that field0 -
I know this isn't the Spanish Flu, but this BBC documentary is very interesting in view of our current situation
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3cswdhh0 -
I’m thinking the amount of people who can work from home or take unlimited leave is vastly over estimated.Pross said:
Yeah although I expected both to be a lot quieter to be honest.pblakeney said:I can see a connection between busy roads and quiet trains. 😉
The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
Depends how many jobless you get....pblakeney said:0 -
So, in my house:
1. Family holiday to Italy - off
2. Family and friends short break in May looking doubtful
3. Harry Potter Studios Tour - off
4. School open
Guess which one is causing the most disappointment right now?You can fool some of the people all of the time. Concentrate on those people.0 -
I think that is being underestimated. 😢rick_chasey said:
Depends how many jobless you get....pblakeney said:The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
My friends have a little boy with cerebral palsey. they have been raising money for a year to send him to a specialist rehabilitation centre in Boston, USA, but now its been cancelled.Longshot said:So, in my house:
1. Family holiday to Italy - off
2. Family and friends short break in May looking doubtful
3. Harry Potter Studios Tour - off
4. School open
Guess which one is causing the most disappointment right now?
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For my own part, we have our little boys 1 year old birthday coming up. We're seriously planning on having to hold him up to the window to see his grandparents (he is their only grandson) on his birthday as they are self isolating and one of them has a number of underlying health conditions that are high on the risk list.1
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That's really sad. I do feel for people like that and those with weddings booked, etc. Holidays are one thing but stuff like this is really tough.elbowloh said:
My friends have a little boy with cerebral palsey. they have been raising money for a year to send him to a specialist rehabilitation centre in Boston, USA, but now its been cancelled.Longshot said:So, in my house:
1. Family holiday to Italy - off
2. Family and friends short break in May looking doubtful
3. Harry Potter Studios Tour - off
4. School open
Guess which one is causing the most disappointment right now?You can fool some of the people all of the time. Concentrate on those people.0 -
One of the things that has annoyed me is that "sources say" that the PM is worried about how the decisions he makes now about Covid 19 may impact on how his legacy will be viewed in the future...
I know it could be bollocks, but if true he cares more about his image than the fact that people may live or die based on his decisions.0 -
elbowloh said:
One of the things that has annoyed me is that "sources say" that the PM is worried about how the decisions he makes now about Covid 19 may impact on how his legacy will be viewed in the future...
I know it could be bollocks, but if true he cares more about his image than the fact that people may live or die based on his decisions.
I can't say that, if true, this comes as any surprise to me. In the interests of fairness however, I do think I can see the point of 'his' current strategy and am not going to criticise him for it. Difficult times, difficult choices. I'm glad it's not down to me to make the call.You can fool some of the people all of the time. Concentrate on those people.0 -
You're dammed if you do and dammed if you don't.
There are no easy choices and we're all armchair experts.
History will be the judge.
I don't know who to believe or what news sources to trust. I do know one thing - my partner works in the NHS (non-front line outpatients) and they are cancelling all appointments and have been asked today what experience they have on wards and use of ventilators. They expect to be deployed to other front-line sites in the near future and they are absolutely sh1tt1ing it.
"Ride, crash, replace"0 -
Will there ever be testing in this country of people who might or might not have had it? I've no idea if I have it very mildly or not at all - it would be useful in the future for people to know if they are no longer any risk.0
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That's not going to be the priority for a while, if ever. Why would you waste valuable testing resource on you when it is better to know the continued virus situation of medical staff?kingstongraham said:Will there ever be testing in this country of people who might or might not have had it? I've no idea if I have it very mildly or not at all - it would be useful in the future for people to know if they are no longer any risk.
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surrey_commuter said:
OK, I get yours (and RJST’s) points about the scale but why does this not mean that Boris’s plan is not working and our number of deaths is not outstripping countries who have tried to control the spread.rick_chasey said:
People also seem to forget the y axis isn’t linear...surrey_commuter said:
That looks like we are about to take a decisive leadtailwindhome said:Tracking deaths instead of positives
Personally I would have learnt from the countries on the right of the graph.
The use of a double negative has fried my brain !!!
My personal, layman's view is that each country is at a different stage in this cycle and has very different factors involved. The dynamics in play in Italy, for example, are different to here, so the plan of action and associated timings shouldn't be expected to be the same for all countries.
Ultimately, we do need to rely upon health experts to guide what each country does and when, which appears to be what is driving the UK approach. We'll only truly know what the right approach was when this is over and we are able to analyse the full data properly.1 -
Messaged my brothers about parents self isolating, the one in China said good idea make sure you are all taking the usual precautions like wearing masks in public and carrying hand sanitizer. Of course how many of us are wearing masks? I know we've been told they don't stop you catching the virus - unless you wear a mask over your eyes and don't touch anything but surely they help stop you spread it - not stop but help stop to some extent.
I get that we don't want the NHS to run out because Mr and Mrs Jones bought half the country's supply from CostCo last Tuesday but in an emergency how hard would it be to manufacture enough and protect the NHS's supply?[Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]0 -
I understand that the 2011 UK policy paper on pandemics is quite informative for those that wish to understand more.0
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Without testing, how will we ever know if there is a higher level of immunity in this country than others that have taken a different path?coopster_the_1st said:
That's not going to be the priority for a while, if ever. Why would you waste valuable testing resource on you when it is better to know the continued virus situation of medical staff?kingstongraham said:Will there ever be testing in this country of people who might or might not have had it? I've no idea if I have it very mildly or not at all - it would be useful in the future for people to know if they are no longer any risk.
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2011? You must be joking, I read on Facebook that the Government are making it up as they go along and it's all wrong.TheBigBean said:I understand that the 2011 UK policy paper on pandemics is quite informative for those that wish to understand more.
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This is a common sense answer rather than an expert one.kingstongraham said:
Without testing, how will we ever know if there is a higher level of immunity in this country than others that have taken a different path?coopster_the_1st said:
That's not going to be the priority for a while, if ever. Why would you waste valuable testing resource on you when it is better to know the continued virus situation of medical staff?kingstongraham said:Will there ever be testing in this country of people who might or might not have had it? I've no idea if I have it very mildly or not at all - it would be useful in the future for people to know if they are no longer any risk.
They CMO team will have a pretty good idea of how many people have been infected with the virus. This is from the early testing and their modelling. They take the number who die from that number and then you know roughly how many are now immune.0 -
as all virus's are different why do you think this planning doc outweighs the evidence on the ground from countries 1-2 months ahead of us?TheBigBean said:I understand that the 2011 UK policy paper on pandemics is quite informative for those that wish to understand more.
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Have you ever thought that maybe if he cares about his legacy he might be more driven to do what is in the national interest long term than what gets him a few soundbites todayelbowloh said:One of the things that has annoyed me is that "sources say" that the PM is worried about how the decisions he makes now about Covid 19 may impact on how his legacy will be viewed in the future...
I know it could be bollocks, but if true he cares more about his image than the fact that people may live or die based on his decisions.
off around 60-70% of this forum. I am looking to bet some cash on China having another melt down in a few months when they lift their restrictions and still have not developed a vaccine.0 -
There appears to be some evidence that just because you've had it that you would then be immune. Indeed one of the theories around why its spreading so quickly is because individuals are getting it multiple times.kingstongraham said:Will there ever be testing in this country of people who might or might not have had it? I've no idea if I have it very mildly or not at all - it would be useful in the future for people to know if they are no longer any risk.
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If you can get it multiple times then we're all wasting our time aren't we?elbowloh said:
There appears to be some evidence that just because you've had it that you would then be immune. Indeed one of the theories around why its spreading so quickly is because individuals are getting it multiple times.kingstongraham said:Will there ever be testing in this country of people who might or might not have had it? I've no idea if I have it very mildly or not at all - it would be useful in the future for people to know if they are no longer any risk.
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They could also do random samples around the Country at any point, to see if they match their predictions.coopster_the_1st said:
This is a common sense answer rather than an expert one.kingstongraham said:
Without testing, how will we ever know if there is a higher level of immunity in this country than others that have taken a different path?coopster_the_1st said:
That's not going to be the priority for a while, if ever. Why would you waste valuable testing resource on you when it is better to know the continued virus situation of medical staff?kingstongraham said:Will there ever be testing in this country of people who might or might not have had it? I've no idea if I have it very mildly or not at all - it would be useful in the future for people to know if they are no longer any risk.
They CMO team will have a pretty good idea of how many people have been infected with the virus. This is from the early testing and their modelling. They take the number who die from that number and then you know roughly how many are now immune.0 -
That's one possibility, it could also mean he's more inclined just to cover his own arse. I think his own actions over how/when he decided what side of the Brexit debate he would put his weight behind indicated that he's more concerned about himself and his career than what is best for the country and its people. That's just me though...maybe.john80 said:
Have you ever thought that maybe if he cares about his legacy he might be more driven to do what is in the national interest long term than what gets him a few soundbites todayelbowloh said:One of the things that has annoyed me is that "sources say" that the PM is worried about how the decisions he makes now about Covid 19 may impact on how his legacy will be viewed in the future...
I know it could be bollocks, but if true he cares more about his image than the fact that people may live or die based on his decisions.
off around 60-70% of this forum.0 -
There is no suggestion from the medical experts that you can get it more than once at the moment.
WRT Boris, what is best for the people of the country will be best for him.
Many of the measures now in place in other countries will come in here, but only when the experts think the time is right. Why would we now be doing what Italy or Spain are now doing if it is accepted we are 1, 2, 3 4 or more weeks behind them?0
